ERCOT Urging For Energy Conservation

[YGIFS 19449]

You said 15 inches, blown.  hehehehehe.  

Yeah, your bill.  My bill.  All our bills.  Total bullshit.  I don't mind paying a modest premium for reliability.  But this is third world, Costa Rica, bullshit.  

[Nathan Jessep 147]

Everyone complaining about your bills, please refer to DAHobbs LCOE charts for comfort. The word is things are going to turn around the more we get renewables. Thank you for your understanding. 

[C-Man 27192]

SQ. Feet?
 

4500

Heard about outages in Old East Dallas and surrounding areas tonight effecting thousands. ONCOR not confirming the cause.

[C-Man 27192]

$620 here. 
I feel like I need a generator for the ice storms and solar panels for the summer bills to cover everything that the utilities should be able to handle in the 21st century. Fuck you, ERCOT.

We are downsizing in the next couple of years. I will consider putting in solar panels on our next home.

[Nathan Jessep 147]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Power output being curtailed because of congested transmission lines is a huge issue. It’s going to take years to catch up…if we ever do.

This happens ALL THE TIME.

Yeah it’s one of the “firming” costs associated with renewables.  It will cost Billions to build out. People will question why their electricity costs more. And so on. 

[Dahobbs 17526]

18 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

Everyone complaining about your bills, please refer to DAHobbs LCOE charts for comfort. The word is things are going to turn around the more we get renewables. Thank you for your understanding. 

That's just cost of providing the electricity. It sets a sort of floor on (average) prices, but not a ceiling. In Texas we are still stuck with a system that by nature lends itself to be capacity (supply) constrained, which increases prices. Prices will not drop in Texas until we have more capacity relative to demand. 

[Dahobbs 17526]

2 minutes ago, Nathan Jessep said:

Yeah it’s one of the “firming” costs associated with renewables.  It will cost Billions to build out. People will question why their electricity costs more. And so on. 

? Transmission issues aren't just a renewable problem. We have aging infrastructure that we have deferred replacing and adding to. The bill is just finally coming due. 

[Firemans4Horn 18034]

19 minutes ago, C-Man said:

4500

Heard about outages in Old East Dallas and surrounding areas tonight effecting thousands. ONCOR not confirming the cause.

5 hours into the outage. It’s way darker over here than at any point during the 2021 freeze. Fuck this summer, fuck ERCOT, and fuck the spineless, do-nothing elected officials in Texas. 

[Nathan Jessep 147]

12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

? Transmission issues aren't just a renewable problem. We have aging infrastructure that we have deferred replacing and adding to. The bill is just finally coming due. 

The article linked directly stated that there was a problem transmitting electricity from wind generation in south texas to the rest of the state. 
 

That’s one of the basic problems with renewables. Electricity is generated far from the users. I’ve seen that California forecasts $30B just in transmission buildout to meet net zero. 

[UTexasFight 9429]

I haven’t  paid a dime for electricity in the 6 years I’ve been in my house.

(other than buying a generator, some extra propane tanks, and installing a transfer switch after the 2021 winter storm which was clutch for the 2023 ice storm when the power was out longer than 2021)

 

better to be lucky (buying a house with solar already installed even though I wasn’t looking for that) than good. 

[Updawg 2266]

I haven’t  paid a dime for electricity in the 6 years I’ve been in my house.
(other than buying a generator, some extra propane tanks, and installing a transfer switch after the 2021 winter storm which was clutch for the 2023 ice storm when the power was out longer than 2021)
 
better to be lucky (buying a house with solar already installed even though I wasn’t looking for that) than good. 

How much do you think that impacted the purchase price of your house? I assume not much. Curious about it compared to a pool etc

[wildcat09 29346]

Why aren’t you fuckers all negging GR Horn’s new handle?

Edited September 9, 2023 by wildcat09

[Dahobbs 17526]

10 hours ago, Updawg said:

How much do you think that impacted the purchase price of your house? I assume not much. Curious about it compared to a pool etc

I've seen some studies that put pricing impact at the low single digits, i.e. 1-2%. My assumption has been that the overall pricing impact will be slightly less than the post tax credit cost to install the same panels, but that's just a guess. It is an inherently hard thing to get good figures for. 

[C-Man 27192]

5 hours into the outage. It’s way darker over here than at any point during the 2021 freeze. Fuck this summer, fuck ERCOT, and fuck the spineless, do-nothing elected officials in Texas. 

Darker because there was no snow to “brighten” everything up.

What did your power come back on? (It did come back on, right? /Natalie Portman meme)

[UTexasFight 9429]

11 hours ago, Updawg said:

How much do you think that impacted the purchase price of your house? I assume not much. Curious about it compared to a pool etc

I have no idea, but I would say little to nothing.

I certainly didn’t raise my offer because of it but how much did the sellers build it in to their asking price I have no idea.

But it was also 6 years ago. I would look at it a lot differently today, especially something with a power wall.

[Guest]

On 9/8/2023 at 5:16 PM, Dahobbs said:

You can compare costs at different levels. LCOE will tell you how much it costs the facility to produce to power. It'll tell you the pricing levels needed for a facility to operate and it'll help explain private actors decisions on what type of facilities to build. LCOE is a useful metric for understanding and predicting private investment in power generation facilities, which is what we were discussing.

Separately, there are externalities associated with different types of generations. Those externalities are, by definition, external to the facility, and thus don't affect a private actor's decision on what type of facilities to invest in and operate. Different types of externalities are going to be important to look at depending on the level of analysis. For instance, if you just wanted to expand the analysis to include direct effects on the grid, you'd want to look at factors like grid stability, additional transmission needed, and other grid wide capital expenditures necessary to incorporate new types of facilities. You'd also want to consider that some of those costs are ongoing and some are one time affairs associated with converting an existing grid rather than building anew. And you may also want to do a higher level of analysis that looks at externalities to the grid itself. In that case you'd want to consider the impact of things like CO2 emissions, global warming, particulates, and downstream health effects. 

My response to you has simply been that we need to put all of these costs in separate buckets so that they can be grouped and ungrouped as needed depending on the type of analysis we are doing.

Further, you continue to misrepresent and ignore the actual words of my posts. In my very first response to your question as to whether LCOE of intermittent and dispatchable generation can be compared, I said yes, although it is an incomplete picture. Prior to you even entering this thread, I had posted extensively about the high costs associated with making renewables a high percentage of the grid and how those costs accelerate as you convert to higher percentages of intermittent energy. 

Your citation to the Breakthrough Institute, a entity whose primary purpose appears to be to challenge any attempted action on climate change while providing a façade of scientific reasonableness, raises some suspicion. I'm also confused by your refusal to accept any hard numbers or estimates for the things you say you want analyzed.

• You asked for a figure that included grid level costs to renewables, I provided you a set firming costs estimates based on differing assumptions (I also pointed out numerous studies address this topic and it varies depending on level of renewable penetration);
• You asked for a comparison that included CO2 costs associated with thermal generation, again I provided an example of that figure

Rather than acknowledge any of that or discuss whatever issues you have with Lazard's firming costs analysis, you continue to argue about LCOE and insult my intelligence. If you want to actually discuss these things, then let's have at it. Maybe you can even find some sources, models, and estimates of your own that you prefer. 

Wasn’t my intent to insult your intelligence.  

The information I have is not linkable.  The things I have read online on the topic are either incomplete or deliberately misleading.  Groups don’t spend tons of money to hand out free comprehensive quality unbiased information on the topic.  

[Dahobbs 17526]

16 minutes ago, axiom of foundation said:

Wasn’t my intent to insult your intelligence.  

[Captainant 27637]

Whoof I didn't realize we got a brand new fee that kicked in on Sept 1 to fund paying cryptofucks to turn off their shit

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2023/09/05/your-electric-rate-just-increased-even-if-you-are-locked-into-a-contract/

Quote

CenterPoint’s new rate is 5.46/ kWh, an increase of 1.7 cents/ kWh over the rate customers have paid since March 1, 2023. For a customer using 3000 kWhs a month, you will pay an extra $51 after Sept. 1.

Just a casual 46% bump of the TDU fees that get passed down to residents. God bless deregulation! It's only led to greatness for our electric grid and is the envy of the world

[Brisketexan 105071]

Whoof I didn't realize we got a brand new fee that kicked in on Sept 1 to fund paying cryptofucks to turn off their shit
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2023/09/05/your-electric-rate-just-increased-even-if-you-are-locked-into-a-contract/

CenterPoint’s new rate is 5.46/ kWh, an increase of 1.7 cents/ kWh over the rate customers have paid since March 1, 2023. For a customer using 3000 kWhs a month, you will pay an extra $51 after Sept. 1.

Just a casual 46% bump of the TDU fees that get passed down to residents. God bless deregulation! It's only led to greatness for our electric grid and is the envy of the world

The TDU rate really doesn’t have anything to do with generation costs or availability (I mean, other than the transmission and distribution networks are what get the power TO you). But they generally don’t have anything to do with whether we have enough available generation or not.
We need more transmission. It needs to be robust and able to handle weather events. That costs money. Always has.
Now, we COULD manage it all like a “public utility,” and not defer such costs etc, but naah, “the market” will solve it all. That said, transmission and distribution are less vulnerable to the shenanigans and bullshit that the generation side is.

[Homercles 10205]

On 9/8/2023 at 10:53 AM, BrickHorn said:

Look, crypto mining is far from perfect. But it’s the only market-based solution to a problem caused by relying on the free market for energy. 

It would be extremely wasteful to over-invest in power plants that are only needed during extreme weather events that happen only very rarely. Like the 100-year ice storms we have every two years. Or summer.

[Captainant 27637]

On 9/8/2023 at 3:23 PM, Nathan Jessep said:

I like how seeking clarification on some gaudy numbers gets you accused of being some dipshit crypto poster. 
 

Seems that you’re a little embarrassed you got emotionally triggered by some obviously off numbers. You must be easily duped.
 

A little healthy skepticism is always warranted. 

lulz that this actually turned out to be GRUhorn and he was mad about getting ID'd - he really gave up the game when he posted his usual link to a goldbug website

[Captainant 27637]

Since there was some discussion around new developments in nuclear energy, I figured this would be as good a place as any to share a video that youtube recently recommended to me:

It's a roundtable Q/A about some of the new efforts in nuclear power and molten salt reactors that's happening at UT. Love to see Texas working to change the world for the better.

edit: it is a little politicky and ass-kissing of abbot at the beginning, but there's no getting around having the governor involved when it's new nuclear tech

Edited September 22, 2023 by Captainant

[elfenix 34223]

CNBC about Texas Bitcoin miners:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/where-are-bitcoin-miners-in-2023-texas.html

[Post Oak 20208]

Doug Lewin's Substack about ERCOT trying to keep Texas in the 20th century.

Spoiler

	Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more Skate to Where the Puck Is Going Too many state leaders and agencies are stuck in the past; opportunities to increase reliability and benefit consumers are passing them by DOUG LEWIN SEP 28     READ IN APP   We’re living through a period of extraordinary change. Texas is seeing profound shifts in the ways energy is produced, the amounts of energy being consumed, and the climate’s reactions to what we’re doing and what we’ve done.  These changes are transforming our economy, our lives, our quality of life, our communities, our planet … everything. But state leaders aren’t keeping up. Hockey great Wayne Gretzky famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.” ERCOT, the PUC, and state legislators too often skating to where the puck was years or decades ago.  That’s not true with everyone and everything, certainly. Some folks within these institutions understand the scale and pace of change that's happening. But too many do not, and policies too often look backward instead of forward. Consider where we are — and where we need to be — on issues such as climate change, energy reserves, and gas subsidies: Upgrade to paid Climate Change  This month, ERCOT released its Fall Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA). The report gauges the level of demand in coming months — something the agency has been notoriously bad at recently — and the amount of supply available to meet it.  For this fall, ERCOT based its extreme risk scenario on "2015's weather to approximate 95th percentile weather." But this summer has been a testament to the fact that old precedents may not reflect what’s coming: on Sept. 24, two days after the official start of fall and five days after the SARA report was released, Dallas recorded a record 101 degrees.  ERCOT put 2015’s weather as the extreme scenario. Texas is now experiencing extremes beyond any historical corollary. If ERCOT keeps looking backward to predict the future, it will miss more forecasts and continue to put Texans at risk.  The climate has changed in ways that create new extremes. Failing to acknowledge and prepare for that — and, worse still, to deny it — is dangerous.  In the winter of 2021, days after catastrophic power outages claimed the lives of hundreds of Texans, then-ERCOT CEO Bill Magness said, “We don’t have any climate specialists on staff.”  Two and a half years later, they still don't.  ERCOT is skating backward on ever thinner ice, preparing for the weather of a decade ago, not the weather that’s coming. Share Backup Reserves, aka Ancillary Services ERCOT procures ancillary services, a suite of backup energy reserves, based on historical data of what they've needed to meet demand fluctuations. They've recently announced they’ll reduce some of the most important ancillary services — the fastest acting ones — because Texas hasn’t needed so much of them in the last year or two.  These fast acting ancillary services are vital to keep voltage and frequency in balance at all times. They respond to gas, coal, and nuclear power plant outages, changes in wind and solar output, and/or large unexpected changes in demand. They’re an insurance policy for a grid that is in a high risk category. If anyone or anything needs some insurance, it’s ERCOT. If ERCOT looks ahead instead of backward, it will see the state’s thermal power plants increasingly struggling as they age and solar resources likely doubling in the next two years. It also will see increasingly extreme weather causing load to increase, sometimes dramatically — experts last week noted, depressingly, that “this summer might be one of the coolest summers we experience in the next 50 years.”  And ERCOT will see people and businesses of all sizes continuing to move to Texas (unless the heat drives them away, a very real possibility) — many of them, especially large employers, to take advantage of the state’s world-leading wind and solar resources.  This new economic activity is great for Texas. It also further stresses our grid. We’ll need more fast-acting ancillary services to bolster the grid, even if we haven’t in the last year or two. Upgrade to paid Subsidizing Gas In November, Texas voters will decide whether to give low-interest loans to gas plants (and, in the process, turn the PUC into a bank). Even with the loans, these new power plants will take at least three to four years to build.  But the legislature explicitly excluded battery storage projects from eligibility for these loans, even though such projects are faster and cheaper to build than gas plants and can meet the grid’s short-term needs far more directly.  The legislature is throwing money at 20th century solutions to meet 21st century needs. Consumers and investors are rapidly embracing solutions like storage and demand response; a little policy support could make a real difference for reliability. The legislature did basically nothing to increase either.  Fortunately, technology, markets, and consumers are moving forward faster than Texas is trying to move backward — people want lower cost, cleaner, and more reliable solutions.  But policy is important too. The anachronistic obstinance of state leaders threatens to scare off investors and companies, as well as the jobs, economic development, and innovation they can bring. Give a gift subscription Seeing the Future The International Energy Agency’s graph below shows clearly where the proverbial puck is headed.  International investments in clean energy will rise to $1.8 trillion this year, up 70% since 2015. Fossil fuel investments sit around $1 trillion, down 20% from 2015 and still below pre-pandemic levels.  Eight years ago, fossil fuel investments were 30% higher than clean energy investments, which include renewables, energy efficiency, nuclear generation, storage, and more. Now, clean energy investment is 70% higher than fossil fuels. Virtually every data point demonstrates that the past is no longer a reliable indicator of the future. Changes are coming to Texas much faster than ERCOT, regulators, and policymakers are adapting to them.  So Texas political leaders have a choice. They can try to chase obsolete policy solutions — elbowing their way upstream through the crowd that’s rushing into the future. Or they can help lead that crowd in a direction that’s better for Texas.  Texas has every advantage: an unparalleled workforce, natural resources, generations of energy leadership... But state leaders seem intent on letting the puck go by.

 

[BrickHorn 18216]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

CNBC about Texas Bitcoin miners:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/where-are-bitcoin-miners-in-2023-texas.html

Tl;dr: Texans will likely all melt and/or freeze to death in the coming year because our terawatts are needed to power an electronic game of hot potato. 

[Nivek 16923]

So our tax money is paying crypto bros not to crash our grid.   I should get the state to pay me not to collect shit from around the world and swamp Austin's sewer system.

 

[Surly Bevo 24908]

So our tax money is paying crypto bros not to crash our grid.   I should get the state to pay me not to collect shit from around the world and swamp Austin's sewer system.
 

Yep and best I can tell it’s not an industry that creates any significant jobs or stimulus to a local economy and certainly doesn’t produce anything that the vast majority of the people of the state or society can use.

Plenty of power sucking industries come to this state. Most at least have the decency to attempt to provide some greater economic/utility benefit to its citizens.

[Captainant 27637]

52 minutes ago, Nivek said:

So our tax money is paying crypto bros not to crash our grid.   I should get the state to pay me not to collect shit from around the world and swamp Austin's sewer system.

 

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Yep and best I can tell it’s not an industry that creates any significant jobs or stimulus to a local economy and certainly doesn’t produce anything that the vast majority of the people of the state or society can use.

Plenty of power sucking industries come to this state. Most at least have the decency to attempt to provide some greater economic/utility benefit to its citizens.

No no you just aren't understanding! By giving free public money to bitcoin miners, they'll drive up the demand for electricity and drive up the price and attract more electricty generators to set up shop in our thriving energy market! [/s]

 

Fucking crazy that texas alone is more than a quarter of the US's overall hashrate. That means we are the leaders in wasting electricity on buttcoins, hooray! 

[Captainant 27637]

Wow that CNBC article has some crazy data though:

Research from Castle Island Venture's Nic Carter and a collective of other industry practitioners including Lancium's Shaun Connell and the former interim chief of ERCOT, Brad Jones, found that over the past decade, instances of negative pricing surged considerably, accounting for more than 6% of all hours in 2022 across wholesale markets in the U.S. The research paper went on to note that negative priced power may increase further in Texas, in particular, given that the state is rapidly onboarding wind and solar to its grid. Those conditions are ideal for bitcoin miners.

"All you have to do is pay the miners slightly more than what they would have made mining for bitcoin that hour," said bitcoin mining engineer Brandon Arvanaghi, who now runs Meow, a company that enables corporate treasury participation in crypto markets. Arvanaghi calls the setup a "a win-win."

For years, Riot has been powering down operations at its Rockdale mine, about an hour from Austin, to help ease the burden on the state's grid. In July, for instance, bitcoin miner Riot Platforms raked in more than $31.7 million to keep its mining operations offline — $24.2 million came from energy sold back to the ERCOT grid and the other $7.4 million came via demand response credits.

[freyguy 4264]

my sister, (nopics) who works for one of the Co-Ops in our state said they're going thru crisis planning for the upcoming solar eclipse in a few weeks....yay

[Surly Bevo 24908]

my sister, (nopics) who works for one of the Co-Ops in our state said they're going thru crisis planning for the upcoming solar eclipse in a few weeks....yay

The eclipse is next April 8th and lasts a few minutes in a pretty narrow path (at least in terms of totality)

[Bozo_Casanova 26437]

9 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

The eclipse is next April 8th and lasts a few minutes in a pretty narrow path (at least in terms of totality)

"Solar failed us again yesterday"
- Rep Jared Patterson, April 9th 2024

[Brisketexan 105071]

13 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

The eclipse is next April 8th and lasts a few minutes in a pretty narrow path (at least in terms of totality)

Nope, not that one.  They're talking about the annular eclipse on Oct 14th.  And they are indeed planning for it, because it is going to be a problem -- for a significant period of time, it will reduce the irradiance received by solar panels  materially -- at its peak, around 15% of what they would produce under a clear sky.  BUT, it's a known event of known timing, and can be planned for.

[Surly Bevo 24908]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Nope, not that one.  They're talking about the annular eclipse on Oct 14th.  And they are indeed planning for it, because it is going to be a problem -- for a significant period of time, it will reduce the irradiance received by solar panels  materially -- at its peak, around 15% of what they would produce under a clear sky.  BUT, it's a known event of known timing, and can be planned for.

Kind of like how it gets really hot in the summer and because the earth rotates the sun disappears below the horizon is a known event?  Because a few times this summer that came close to handing us our ass. 

[freyguy 4264]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Nope, not that one.  They're talking about the annular eclipse on Oct 14th.  And they are indeed planning for it, because it is going to be a problem -- for a significant period of time, it will reduce the irradiance received by solar panels  materially -- at its peak, around 15% of what they would produce under a clear sky.  BUT, it's a known event of known timing, and can be planned for.

and this state is just great at planning for known events....

[Brisketexan 105071]

5 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Kind of like how it gets really hot in the summer and because the earth rotates the sun disappears below the horizon is a known event?  Because a few times this summer that came close to handing us our ass. 

4 minutes ago, freyguy said:

and this state is just great at planning for known events....

Well, what we need to account for is the fact that Texas is really, really, really, really stupid.

Like "we're a state that has a Texas A&M in it" stupid.

[YGIFS 19449]

Somebody wanna tell ERCOT the October solar eclipse event is happening on a Saturday.  It could be completely accounted for and the some by doing this goofy fucking thing called turning off the power at office buildings that nobody is inside of for a few hours on a weekend.  If only there was a cube device that could do that for us remotely.  Oh wait…

[Post Oak 20208]

Well this is just fucking great.

ERCOT calls on a shuttered CPS coal plant and others as a possible Texas grid winter power lifeline

 

Spoiler

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BUSINESS

ERCOT calls on a shuttered CPS coal plant and others as a possible Texas grid winter power lifeline

 

Sara DiNatale, Staff writer

Updated: Oct. 3, 2023 5:44 p.m.

 

 

 

 

 

1of2

A trainload of coal heads to the CPS Energy power plants at Calaveras Lake in 2018. the year the city-owned utility was shutting down its coal-fired J.T. Deely Power Plant. The state grid operator is asking CPS if it can be fired back up to help head off a possible grid emergency this winter.

Bob Owen/Staff file photo

 

 

•  
•  

The state grid operator is asking operators if shuttered gas and coal power plants — including one that San Antonio’s CPS Energy shut down at the end of 2018 — could be fired up by Dec. 1 to head off the possibility of a grid emergency this winter.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is trying to increase the amount of power it can quickly access in response to a risk report showing the region has a 20% chance of conditions that could lead to blackouts if it faces peak loads comparable to those seen during Winter Storm Elliott last December.

It’s a big ask but not impossible, said Michael Webber, a professor of energy resources at the University of Texas at Austin.

RELATED: ERCOT expects Texas power grid to meet fall demand — but winter fears loom

“Generally speaking, industry shuts down plants for a reason — usually related to cost and pollution,” he said. “ERCOT asking to open plants that were shut down because stakeholders complained about the pollution puts the owners and operators in a tough spot.”

As it tries to find another 3,000 megawatts of power for its winter reserves, ERCOT is looking specifically to CPS Energy’s J.T. Deely Power Plant, a decommissioned two-unit coal-fired plant, keeping a Denton plant owned by Garland Power & Light open over the winter and stepping up the use of demand-response conservation programs among its list of possible sources. 

CPS said Tuesday it was not considering restarting the Deely plant.

“We made a commitment to our community that those would be retired,” the city-owned utility said in a statement. “We continue to move forward with the implementation of our generation plan to power our community through 2030.”

ERCOT brought back plants under a similar request in 2011, but it was only for about 400 megawatts of generation from plants that had been temporarily closed — or “mothballed” — rather than decommissioned.

Risk assessment

“Our request to procure capacity in advance of winter is part of our continued commitment to maintain grid reliability and resiliency,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a statement. “ERCOT is not projecting energy emergency conditions this winter season, but we want to be prepared and ensure all available tools are readily available if needed.”

The added capacity would put the grid’s risk of emergency below the 10% probability level, which is an accepted industry standard. 

ERCOT’s risk assessment for the winter, which was published Monday, said potential risks this winter are greater than last season due to rising demand for power and not enough new sources of power to “fully serve the higher net peak loads.”

During the winter, the 8 a.m. hour can be particularly challenging because that’s the time period when customers are powering up in the morning, increasing demand while temperatures are still low and before solar panels start producing energy. 

A similar problem played out during the summer, but with the crunch time in the evening. Solar energy supply dropped as the sun went down during record heat and the grid’s demand nearly outpaced supply, a situation that led to a string of requests for Texans to conserve. 

ERCOT, which manages the power supply for 90% of the state, also noted what it called “a large increase” in the number of plants set to be retired or being routinely shut down for the winter. 

“There are currently 15 units expected to be out of service, representing a loss of 1,283 MW of winter-rated capacity,” ERCOT wrote in its new risk assessment.

Power sources

In its request for proposals, the grid operator identified what it considered acceptable forms of power generation it could tap into. The first category listed power plants set to be retired by the start of the winter season. That list included seven plants with units capable of about 550 total megawatts of generation.

These “mothballed” plants are ones closed for some time but that still have equipment in place. ERCOT is asking those plants to hang on a little longer before shutting down, said Joshua Rhodes, an energy expert and research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. 

The biggest contribution of that type would be from Talen Energy’s 292-megawatt coal-fired Barney M. David plant in Corpus Christi. Talen has said it plans to close the plant, exit coal generation and invest more in renewables. 

ERCOT also identified two plants capable of producing about 140 megawatts of power that are set to be closed for the winter that it instead wants to keep operational.

“It costs money to be ready,” Rhodes said, explaining such plants are basically put into sleep mode. “So we’d have to keep them awake. If those power plants have been gone offline every winter, they might not be as weatherized as we  may need.” 

 

As was seen during Winter Storm Uri in 2021, plants that lack necessary weatherization may not be operable during extreme cold.

ERCOT identified its largest possible single source of power as the two retired units that once provided 840 megawatts of coal-fired power at the Deely plant near Calaveras Lake.

CPS stopped using the plants Dec. 31, 2018. CPS has made its stance on coal clear, its board also voting to shutter one of its Spruce plant’s coal units by the end of 2028 and converting that plant’s second unit to run on natural gas.

Complicating factors

Austin’s Decker Creek Power Station, a gas-fired plant, is also on ERCOT’s wish list and once produced 428 megawatts of power. It closed in 2020 amid Austin Energy’s efforts to lower its carbon emissions. 

Rhodes pointed out the complexities of bringing those plants back into operation range from bringing in the natural gas or coal they consume, ensuring they have water for cooling and finding the staff to run them.

“There are some pretty big plants that have retired but it takes time to dismantle a power plant,” he said. “I don’t know the status of these plants. Some, all the parts might be there … some of it might be able to be returned online.” 

ERCOT is also asking plants that are in the process of being brought online to start up earlier than planned. It didn’t specifically identify any such plants.

Lastly, ERCOT lists demand response programs as a potential way to grow power reserves. Those programs tap into residential customers, usually large businesses, who pledge to stop using power during peak periods. Though such programs can also rely on customers, like CPS Energy’s summer program that taps into volunteering customer’s thermostats. 

ERCOT says proposals are due by Nov. 6. The grid operator will announce its selections on Nov. 23 and secure the added power from Dec. 1 through Feb. 29, 2024

 

https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/ercot-calls-closed-power-plants-texas-grid-winter-18403794.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&s=09

 

 

 

 

[YGIFS 19449]

Dibs on "Decommissioned Coal" for name of my dystopian band of rebels set to overthrow this dipshit government in 6 months time.  

[Biff Tannen 45665]

47 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Dibs on "Decommissioned Coal" for name of my dystopian band of rebels set to overthrow this dipshit government in 6 months time.  

I’ll play rhythm guitar. Rhythm not guaranteed. 

[YGIFS 19449]

Dammit Biff, "band of rebels" as in roving gang, a band of outlaws, a posse, and pack of marauders.  Not a fucking actual musical band.  You're like the dude in 'Stand by Me' who brings the comb on the outlaw adventure.  Man, I was gonna make you a captain of one of the companies, too.  But not now while you're over there pretending to tune your 12-string customized box of sadness.  But yes, I'd still find something in the post-energy apocalyptic Texas to collaborate on with you.  Maybe a "what if seinfeld took place in a world with no electricity" like that NBC show "Revolution" meets "Curb Your Enthusiasm."  ? 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

16 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Dammit Biff, "band of rebels" as in roving gang, a band of outlaws, a posse, and pack of marauders.  Not a fucking actual musical band.  You're like the dude in 'Stand by Me' who brings the comb on the outlaw adventure.  Man, I was gonna make you a captain of one of the companies, too.  But not now while you're over there pretending to tune your 12-string customized box of sadness.  But yes, I'd still find something in the post-energy apocalyptic Texas to collaborate on with you.  Maybe a "what if seinfeld took place in a world with no electricity" like that NBC show "Revolution" meets "Curb Your Enthusiasm."  ? 

You say this like the band won’t need a rhythm guitarist. Don’t come crawling back when you realize you made a huge mistake. 

[Captainant 27637]

9 hours ago, Post Oak said:

Well this is just fucking great.

ERCOT calls on a shuttered CPS coal plant and others as a possible Texas grid winter power lifeline

 

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BUSINESS

ERCOT calls on a shuttered CPS coal plant and others as a possible Texas grid winter power lifeline

 

Sara DiNatale, Staff writer

Updated: Oct. 3, 2023 5:44 p.m.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A trainload of coal heads to the CPS Energy power plants at Calaveras Lake in 2018. the year the city-owned utility was shutting down its coal-fired J.T. Deely Power Plant. The state grid operator is asking CPS if it can be fired back up to help head off a possible grid emergency this winter.

Bob Owen/Staff file photo

 

 

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The state grid operator is asking operators if shuttered gas and coal power plants — including one that San Antonio’s CPS Energy shut down at the end of 2018 — could be fired up by Dec. 1 to head off the possibility of a grid emergency this winter.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is trying to increase the amount of power it can quickly access in response to a risk report showing the region has a 20% chance of conditions that could lead to blackouts if it faces peak loads comparable to those seen during Winter Storm Elliott last December.

It’s a big ask but not impossible, said Michael Webber, a professor of energy resources at the University of Texas at Austin.

RELATED: ERCOT expects Texas power grid to meet fall demand — but winter fears loom

“Generally speaking, industry shuts down plants for a reason — usually related to cost and pollution,” he said. “ERCOT asking to open plants that were shut down because stakeholders complained about the pollution puts the owners and operators in a tough spot.”

As it tries to find another 3,000 megawatts of power for its winter reserves, ERCOT is looking specifically to CPS Energy’s J.T. Deely Power Plant, a decommissioned two-unit coal-fired plant, keeping a Denton plant owned by Garland Power & Light open over the winter and stepping up the use of demand-response conservation programs among its list of possible sources. 

CPS said Tuesday it was not considering restarting the Deely plant.

“We made a commitment to our community that those would be retired,” the city-owned utility said in a statement. “We continue to move forward with the implementation of our generation plan to power our community through 2030.”

ERCOT brought back plants under a similar request in 2011, but it was only for about 400 megawatts of generation from plants that had been temporarily closed — or “mothballed” — rather than decommissioned.

Risk assessment

“Our request to procure capacity in advance of winter is part of our continued commitment to maintain grid reliability and resiliency,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a statement. “ERCOT is not projecting energy emergency conditions this winter season, but we want to be prepared and ensure all available tools are readily available if needed.”

The added capacity would put the grid’s risk of emergency below the 10% probability level, which is an accepted industry standard. 

ERCOT’s risk assessment for the winter, which was published Monday, said potential risks this winter are greater than last season due to rising demand for power and not enough new sources of power to “fully serve the higher net peak loads.”

During the winter, the 8 a.m. hour can be particularly challenging because that’s the time period when customers are powering up in the morning, increasing demand while temperatures are still low and before solar panels start producing energy. 

A similar problem played out during the summer, but with the crunch time in the evening. Solar energy supply dropped as the sun went down during record heat and the grid’s demand nearly outpaced supply, a situation that led to a string of requests for Texans to conserve. 

ERCOT, which manages the power supply for 90% of the state, also noted what it called “a large increase” in the number of plants set to be retired or being routinely shut down for the winter. 

“There are currently 15 units expected to be out of service, representing a loss of 1,283 MW of winter-rated capacity,” ERCOT wrote in its new risk assessment.

Power sources

In its request for proposals, the grid operator identified what it considered acceptable forms of power generation it could tap into. The first category listed power plants set to be retired by the start of the winter season. That list included seven plants with units capable of about 550 total megawatts of generation.

These “mothballed” plants are ones closed for some time but that still have equipment in place. ERCOT is asking those plants to hang on a little longer before shutting down, said Joshua Rhodes, an energy expert and research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. 

The biggest contribution of that type would be from Talen Energy’s 292-megawatt coal-fired Barney M. David plant in Corpus Christi. Talen has said it plans to close the plant, exit coal generation and invest more in renewables. 

ERCOT also identified two plants capable of producing about 140 megawatts of power that are set to be closed for the winter that it instead wants to keep operational.

“It costs money to be ready,” Rhodes said, explaining such plants are basically put into sleep mode. “So we’d have to keep them awake. If those power plants have been gone offline every winter, they might not be as weatherized as we  may need.” 

 

As was seen during Winter Storm Uri in 2021, plants that lack necessary weatherization may not be operable during extreme cold.

ERCOT identified its largest possible single source of power as the two retired units that once provided 840 megawatts of coal-fired power at the Deely plant near Calaveras Lake.

CPS stopped using the plants Dec. 31, 2018. CPS has made its stance on coal clear, its board also voting to shutter one of its Spruce plant’s coal units by the end of 2028 and converting that plant’s second unit to run on natural gas.

Complicating factors

Austin’s Decker Creek Power Station, a gas-fired plant, is also on ERCOT’s wish list and once produced 428 megawatts of power. It closed in 2020 amid Austin Energy’s efforts to lower its carbon emissions. 

Rhodes pointed out the complexities of bringing those plants back into operation range from bringing in the natural gas or coal they consume, ensuring they have water for cooling and finding the staff to run them.

“There are some pretty big plants that have retired but it takes time to dismantle a power plant,” he said. “I don’t know the status of these plants. Some, all the parts might be there … some of it might be able to be returned online.” 

ERCOT is also asking plants that are in the process of being brought online to start up earlier than planned. It didn’t specifically identify any such plants.

Lastly, ERCOT lists demand response programs as a potential way to grow power reserves. Those programs tap into residential customers, usually large businesses, who pledge to stop using power during peak periods. Though such programs can also rely on customers, like CPS Energy’s summer program that taps into volunteering customer’s thermostats. 

ERCOT says proposals are due by Nov. 6. The grid operator will announce its selections on Nov. 23 and secure the added power from Dec. 1 through Feb. 29, 2024

 

https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/ercot-calls-closed-power-plants-texas-grid-winter-18403794.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral&s=09

So we don't have enough power available generation or storage, but instead of funding that we've been cutting checks to cryptominers to encourage the supply side to catch up to and service the tasty high prices. Isn't the Almighty Free Market supposed to save us from these eventualities and lose/lose choices???

[freyguy 4264]

so we're supposed to believe that they will be able to easily fire up one of these plants in under a month.....

[YGIFS 19449]

Yeah, they're getting the "on/off switch" guy from Austin Water to help out with the re-commissioning efforts.  

Natural Gas?  Nuclear?  Renewables?  Oil?  Battery Storage? 

Nah.  ERCOT's best idea is to turn on a coal-fired plant that has repeatedly almost exploded in the past that even the Fire Marshal was like, "Yeah, I wouldn't go in there if I were you.  Coal aside, that building is about to collapse."  

Is our simulation even trying anymore?  Was the old alamo-era Czech kerosene mill down by the river locked up so this was our backup plan?  

Edited October 4, 2023 by YGIFS

[Samson's Wig 3191]

It seems to me we need some old school ecoterrorist types to apply their skills to taking out bitcoin mining operations.   Fuck those fucking fucks.  I don't see how this is any different than a Mafia protection racket.

[Welch 635]

On 9/29/2023 at 4:12 PM, Brisketexan said:

Nope, not that one.  They're talking about the annular eclipse on Oct 14th.  And they are indeed planning for it, because it is going to be a problem -- for a significant period of time, it will reduce the irradiance received by solar panels  materially -- at its peak, around 15% of what they would produce under a clear sky.  BUT, it's a known event of known timing, and can be planned for.

I’m all for preparedness, but how is this any different or any worse in terms of solar energy than a cloudy day across much of the state?

[Brisketexan 105071]

2 minutes ago, Welch said:

I’m all for preparedness, but how is this any different or any worse in terms of solar energy than a cloudy day across much of the state?

An eclipse reduces solar irradiance significantly more than most cloudy days will (filtered/reduced solar rays vs. no solar rays).  And....that's the extent of my knowledge on the physics of that.  I just know that it's a thing.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

3 minutes ago, Welch said:

I’m all for preparedness, but how is this any different or any worse in terms of solar energy than a cloudy day across much of the state?

Eclipses have long elicited fear and panic in the ignorant and superstitious.

But, yeah, what Brisket said.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

It means the gods are angry and we must atone. Crisis planning makes sense to me