ERCOT Urging For Energy Conservation

[Blotto 23488]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

In Texas, ex-oil and gas workers champion geothermal energy as a replacement for fossil-fueled power plants (click2houston.com)

 

Interesting.

Can't comment on the economics.

But interesting nonetheless.

 

Do places like Bozeman, Montana which happens to have a lot geothermal activity have any geothermal electrical generation?

seems to be mostly in Cali and Nev

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_geothermal_power_stations_in_the_United_States

[Rex Kramer 1333]

2 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Have you considered that you are an early adopter and that the TAM has only grown in the last 11 years as regulations will only grow moving forward, though?

I had a conversation with my buddy literally yesterday and he broke down the market for the last year as follows (for what it's worth):

- Residential -- getting super competitive

- Putting greens- about the same YoY

- Commercial business- booming

YMMV

Regulations won’t grow, and if they do it’ll be to restrict the use of this. Artificial turf is extremely prevalent in Dallas area, in both residential and commercial buildings. It’s been around for decades and is highly fragmented and competitive. I’m not an early adopter. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21874]

Somebody bought a house in my neighborhood and immediately put in artificial turf in the front yard.  I used to walk Sebastian by it every evening counting down the days until the HOA made them rip it out.  It was less than 30.

[mchookem 16322]

On 4/18/2024 at 10:58 PM, Biff Tannen said:

Do you have dogs?  I would entertain turf, because my backyard is shaded 85% of the time, but the dogs have to piss and shit somewhere.

 

On 4/19/2024 at 12:19 AM, fattyflattie said:

When we were considering it, they said you just hose it down (after you pick it up).  Can’t verify, decided to go in another direction. 

we had two small areas after we installed our pool that were troublesome, bc of too much shade, no grass would grow, would get muddy, etc.

we also had dogs, mostly big, sometimes two at once... turf was a great alternative. poop picked up easily and yeah, we'd just hose it down, usually once a week. dogs tended to go in the same spot regardless lol.

I don't know about how hot it gets, but for our purposes around a pool it was a great option, no regrets. 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

Can chambers and Harris county tie into the national grid ?

seems like that solve a lot of problems 

[crash_davis 23101]

As of right now, evening hours (8pm-9pm) is at risk. The chart is fluid and changes throughout the day.

https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards/supplyanddemand

[Post Oak 20208]

I just can't with these assholes.

[Captainant 27637]

Nobody could predict these 90 degree temperatures in MAY!!! It's a completely unforeseeable turn of events in Texas

[Post Oak 20208]

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

33 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

 

What the heck is that discharge?  

[atomheartbevo 89628]

1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

What the heck is that discharge?  

Are you talking about South Austin’s mom?

[Dahobbs 17526]

1 hour ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

What the heck is that discharge?  

At that peak, storage providers were getting paid at a rate of $16 million per hour ($5,000 per MWh x 3,200). Neither the peak price nor the peak discharge lasted a full hour obviously ), but you can see how potentially lucrative storage can be.  Real time pricing averaged just under $3,000 per MWh from 7pm to 8:30 pm. 

[Captainant 27637]

16 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

At that peak, storage providers were getting paid at a rate of $16 million per hour ($5,000 per MWh x 3,200). Neither the peak price nor the peak discharge lasted a full hour obviously ), but you can see how potentially lucrative storage can be.  Real time pricing averaged just under $3,000 per MWh from 7pm to 8:30 pm. 

No no no, we shouldn't be funding battery storage! We should be writing checks to crypto miners from China so that we can induce demand to induce supply! Why on earth would Texas take a direct step towards addressing a problem when they could instead enrich a business with public funds and hope for a second or third order desired outcome?

[Dahobbs 17526]

23 minutes ago, Captainant said:

No no no, we shouldn't be funding battery storage! We should be writing checks to crypto miners from China so that we can induce demand to induce supply! Why on earth would Texas take a direct step towards addressing a problem when they could instead enrich a business with public funds and hope for a second or third order desired outcome?

Frankly, I don't think we need to do anything to fund storage. The economics are favorable enough that it is getting built at scale anyway. 

[Captainant 27637]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Frankly, I don't think we need to do anything to fund storage. The economics are favorable enough that it is getting built at scale anyway. 

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ercot-battery-capacity-rule-NPRR-1186-state-of-charge-SOC/697653/

Unless ERCOT puts rules in place to warp the economics of battery storage, of course 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/texas-power-demand-break-may-record-heat-wave-friday-2024-05-23/

Quote

Power use in Texas was on track to break the record for the month of May on Friday for a second time this week and could top that again over the Memorial Day weekend as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners to escape a heat wave.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates most of the state's power grid for 27 million customers, said the system was currently operating normally with enough supply available to meet expected demand all week.

Quote

ERCOT projected power demand would peak at 75,296 megawatts (MW) on May 24 and 75,952 MW on May 26, which would top the current record for the month of May of 72,261 MW on May 20. The grid's all-time peak was 85,508 MW on Aug. 10, 2023.

Analysts expect ERCOT electric use will top that all-time high this summer with economic and population growth in Texas and demand for power from data centers, artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency mining rising fast.

Quote

High temperatures in Houston, the biggest city in Texas, were forecast to rise from 92 degrees Fahrenheit (33.3 Celsius) on Thursday to 99 F on May 27, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. The normal high in Houston at this time of year is 88 F.

Over the next week, ERCOT projected supplies would exceed demand by as much as 42,500 MW during the morning of May 26 when the sun starts to energize solar panels and by as little as 6,600 MW in the evening of May 24 after the sun goes down and solar panels stop working.

This crypto shit is going to fuck us all this summer.

[InkaUtexas 25863]

I love their name.

Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)

Reliability my ass.

[deft 6839]

We better start writing the “thank you for closing temporarily, here’s 15x what you would have generated” checks now to the crypto companies. It’ll be hard to do in the dark.

[freyguy 4264]

90s in May is not a record heat wave.   And frankly, it's been a very mild May.  Plenty of years in the past, it's already been in the 100s.  WTF is with this sensationalist shit?

[elfenix 34223]

13 hours ago, freyguy said:

90s in May is not a record heat wave.   And frankly, it's been a very mild May.  Plenty of years in the past, it's already been in the 100s.  WTF is with this sensationalist shit?

[freyguy 4264]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

[C-Man 27191]

I’m not one for conspiracy theories but is the Seasonal Savings shit working extra hard on anybody else’s Nest thermostats this spring? Mine is cranking my thermostats up to 76-78 regularly the last few weeks. I know we’ve had the Seasonal Savings adjust things in past but I don’t remember constantly fighting the damn thing to cool down the house.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/ercot-predicts-up-to-16-chance-of-emergency-power-conditions-in-august/
 

Quote

As Texans start to experience the beginning of another hot summer, the state’s power grid operators are raising concerns about the heat, grid reliability and the prospect of rolling blackouts. 

In a Texas House State Affairs Committee hearing Monday, energy leaders testified to give updates about growth forecasts, the summer outlook and market design initiatives. 

Quote

It comes after a Friday report in which the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said that by August, energy demand in Texas could reach as high as 78,000 megawatts. The state has a projected supply of 83,000 megawatts for August, which is typically the hottest month of the year.

ERCOT says the Texas grid is expected to keep up with the expected increased demand for power this summer, but it could get close. Following the second-hottest summer on record in Texas last year, the upcoming months are also expected to be a scorcher. In 2023, ERCOT repeatedly asked customers to voluntarily conserve their electricity as operators aimed to keep demand from exceeding supply.

Quote

William Baule — a research professor and representative of the state climatologist — said forecasting for extreme weather in the coming months will likely affect the power grid.

ERCOT’s Friday report also predicts a 12% chance that energy reserves could fall below 1,500 megawatts. In that instance, it would likely trigger rolling blackouts in order to prevent the grid from collapsing completely. ERCOT has a finite amount of power in the reserves so it can fall back on that energy in case of an emergency or sudden changes in conditions. 

Quote

The rolling blackouts estimate is higher around the end of sundown hours when the grid is most stressed, from 8 to 9 p.m. ERCOT expects a 16% chance of emergency during that time period in August. That’s because around sunset, additional power from solar energy drops off. 

Summer months leading up to August are expected to not have issues, with ERCOT predicting a 1% chance of emergency operations in June and a 4.8% in July.

[Post Oak 20208]

I thought this was interesting.  OG can't bank on predictable returns anymore.

 

[tx 3 putt 76870]

7 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

I thought this was interesting.  OG can't bank on predictable returns anymore.

 

Some poor management at work here. don’t ask for low interest loans, asked for the state to put up 100% of the money as ppp type loans 

*have to make some donations first to Abbott / Patrick / Texas maga gqp 

[SydneyCarton 48056]

My generator can’t get installed fast enough between Hurricane season and August. I can’t wait to never have to worry about this shit again. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10229]

ERCOT projects the need to almost double generation capacity in next 6 years... LOL. Not sure how that is going to happen. We are all fukked.. 

[Captainant 27637]

13 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

ERCOT projects the need to almost double generation capacity in next 6 years... LOL. Not sure how that is going to happen. We are all fukked.. 

What if we... Pay more Bitcoin miners to come to the state and make that worse so that our markets are put into a critical condition ripe for exploitation by private interests instead?

[Biff Tannen 45665]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

What if we... Pay more Bitcoin miners to come to the state and make that worse so that our markets are put into a critical condition ripe for exploitation by private interests instead?

Hey, that was MY idea!

[utee94 15807]

2 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

ERCOT projects the need to almost double generation capacity in next 6 years... LOL. Not sure how that is going to happen. We are all fukked.. 

 

[Brisketexan 105069]

Texas Supremes just reversed the Third Court’s decision on ERCOT’s pricing action during the Uri event. Third court held that the PUC exceeded its authority in bumping the max price up to $9k during the storm. The SCOTX said nope, that was within the PUC’s authority. The decision is probably legally correct, and is even more probably practically correct (it’s really not possible to unscramble the egg of all of the transactions that happened during that period).
In the end, the key is that we need to restructure and reform the market to keep this sort of disaster from happening again (both as a disaster and a financial catastrophe). And, ummm…we’re really not doing that.
Load growth projections are going through the roof. Actual immediate load growth due to crypto mining and data centers is doubling load in some areas. So, generators are going to need to build or contract with new assets to serve that load…but will it even be around in 5 years? Imagine signing a $50 million a year, 25 yr contract to serve New Mega Data Center…and 3 years from now, New Mega Data Center, a subsidiary of a holding company of a subsidiary of a holding company, goes bankrupt. Now you’re stuck holding a billion dollars worth of contract liability to serve…nobody.
It’s a mess. And nobody in power has any interest in actually cleaning it up (Sen. Nathan Johnson is all over this, but he’s a Dem, so what he thinks is less important than what a random drunken Albanian wool merchant might think).

[utee94 15807]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Texas Supremes just reversed the Third Court’s decision on ERCOT’s pricing action during the Uri event. Third court held that the PUC exceeded its authority in bumping the max price up to $9k during the storm. The SCOTX said nope, that was within the PUC’s authority. The decision is probably legally correct, and is even more probably practically correct (it’s really not possible to unscramble the egg of all of the transactions that happened during that period).
In the end, the key is that we need to restructure and reform the market to keep this sort of disaster from happening again (both as a disaster and a financial catastrophe). And, ummm…we’re really not doing that.
Load growth projections are going through the roof. Actual immediate load growth due to crypto mining and data centers is doubling load in some areas. So, generators are going to need to build or contract with new assets to serve that load…but will it even be around in 5 years? Imagine signing a $50 million a year, 25 yr contract to serve New Mega Data Center…and 3 years from now, New Mega Data Center, a subsidiary of a holding company of a subsidiary of a holding company, goes bankrupt. Now you’re stuck holding a billion dollars worth of contract liability to serve…nobody.
It’s a mess. And nobody in power has any interest in actually cleaning it up (Sen. Nathan Johnson is all over this, but he’s a Dem, so what he thinks is less important than what a random drunken Albanian wool merchant might think).

Agree that SCOTX overturn was correct both legally and practically.  Seems like the Third Court was trying to do what was "right" rather than what was strictly legal.

Also agree that it just proves the entire structure is broken.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

40 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Texas Supremes just reversed the Third Court’s decision on ERCOT’s pricing action during the Uri event. Third court held that the PUC exceeded its authority in bumping the max price up to $9k during the storm. The SCOTX said nope, that was within the PUC’s authority. The decision is probably legally correct, and is even more probably practically correct (it’s really not possible to unscramble the egg of all of the transactions that happened during that period).
In the end, the key is that we need to restructure and reform the market to keep this sort of disaster from happening again (both as a disaster and a financial catastrophe). And, ummm…we’re really not doing that.
Load growth projections are going through the roof. Actual immediate load growth due to crypto mining and data centers is doubling load in some areas. So, generators are going to need to build or contract with new assets to serve that load…but will it even be around in 5 years? Imagine signing a $50 million a year, 25 yr contract to serve New Mega Data Center…and 3 years from now, New Mega Data Center, a subsidiary of a holding company of a subsidiary of a holding company, goes bankrupt. Now you’re stuck holding a billion dollars worth of contract liability to serve…nobody.
It’s a mess. And nobody in power has any interest in actually cleaning it up (Sen. Nathan Johnson is all over this, but he’s a Dem, so what he thinks is less important than what a random drunken Albanian wool merchant might think).

Crypto mining and AI data centers are effectively the same in terms of electricity usage. I assume the main factor in deciding where to place the equipment is basically electricity costs.  If/when our politicians start to talk about Texas attracting these companies, we're all subsidizing the costs on our monthly bills.

[tokamak 6392]

45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Texas Supremes just reversed the Third Court’s decision on ERCOT’s pricing action during the Uri event. Third court held that the PUC exceeded its authority in bumping the max price up to $9k during the storm. The SCOTX said nope, that was within the PUC’s authority. The decision is probably legally correct, and is even more probably practically correct (it’s really not possible to unscramble the egg of all of the transactions that happened during that period).
In the end, the key is that we need to restructure and reform the market to keep this sort of disaster from happening again (both as a disaster and a financial catastrophe). And, ummm…we’re really not doing that.
Load growth projections are going through the roof. Actual immediate load growth due to crypto mining and data centers is doubling load in some areas. So, generators are going to need to build or contract with new assets to serve that load…but will it even be around in 5 years? Imagine signing a $50 million a year, 25 yr contract to serve New Mega Data Center…and 3 years from now, New Mega Data Center, a subsidiary of a holding company of a subsidiary of a holding company, goes bankrupt. Now you’re stuck holding a billion dollars worth of contract liability to serve…nobody.
It’s a mess. And nobody in power has any interest in actually cleaning it up (Sen. Nathan Johnson is all over this, but he’s a Dem, so what he thinks is less important than what a random drunken Albanian wool merchant might think).

I still can't believe that the generators and the state got away with "we lost money during the winter storm so we should pass that along to consumers for the next 30 years". Do we have to make whole every business that loses money, ever? Turns out all our fixed rate plans are more of the "lol jk fixed until we lose money" variety.

[Rex Kramer 1333]

22 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

My generator can’t get installed fast enough between Hurricane season and August. I can’t wait to never have to worry about this shit again. 

Cost?  My home is 4300 SF. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10229]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Texas Supremes just reversed the Third Court’s decision on ERCOT’s pricing action during the Uri event. Third court held that the PUC exceeded its authority in bumping the max price up to $9k during the storm. The SCOTX said nope, that was within the PUC’s authority. The decision is probably legally correct, and is even more probably practically correct (it’s really not possible to unscramble the egg of all of the transactions that happened during that period).
In the end, the key is that we need to restructure and reform the market to keep this sort of disaster from happening again (both as a disaster and a financial catastrophe). And, ummm…we’re really not doing that.
Load growth projections are going through the roof. Actual immediate load growth due to crypto mining and data centers is doubling load in some areas. So, generators are going to need to build or contract with new assets to serve that load…but will it even be around in 5 years? Imagine signing a $50 million a year, 25 yr contract to serve New Mega Data Center…and 3 years from now, New Mega Data Center, a subsidiary of a holding company of a subsidiary of a holding company, goes bankrupt. Now you’re stuck holding a billion dollars worth of contract liability to serve…nobody.
It’s a mess. And nobody in power has any interest in actually cleaning it up (Sen. Nathan Johnson is all over this, but he’s a Dem, so what he thinks is less important than what a random drunken Albanian wool merchant might think).

I mean we're only talking about needing another 26 nuclear plants or 21K wind turbines (more than currently exist) added in next 5-7 years based on their estimates.  Someone is probably willing to take some of that risk... please...pretty please...

[Rex Kramer 1333]

27 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Crypto mining and AI data centers are effectively the same in terms of electricity usage. I assume the main factor in deciding where to place the equipment is basically electricity costs.  If/when our politicians start to talk about Texas attracting these companies, we're all subsidizing the costs on our monthly bills.

AI data centers will soon far outstrip crypto. 

[Brisketexan 105069]

AI data centers will soon far outstrip crypto. 

In terms of planned load growth, that’s already happened.
Imagine having to plan to have sufficient juice available to serve another city on top of your existing city. You have to plan, make the investment/incur the expense to do so…to serve an enterprise that may disappear due to bankruptcy a year from now.
Our system is not made for this scenario. At all. Yet here we are.
Nevermind all of the structural/design failings exposed in the past few years, we’re adding NEW massive systemic defects into the mix.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

I have never been an off-the-grid type of person but there's something appealing about getting a property in the middle of nowhere and place solar panels on an unused pasture. I still would want to be on the grid but have the ability to use as much solar as possible.

[Spaulding Smails 1552]

3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Cost?  My home is 4300 SF. 

Should be $18K - $25K turnkey for a 26-KW air cooled unit depending on logistics, and proximity to gas supply and panel.  

[Dahobbs 17526]

3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Cost?  My home is 4300 SF. 

 

21 minutes ago, Spaulding Smails said:

Should be $18K - $25K turnkey for a 26-KW air cooled unit depending on logistics, and proximity to gas supply and panel.  

I would think that size of home is on the cusp of needing a larger generator for true full home backup depending on appliances (e.g., electric or gas furnace, stove, oven, etc) and things like a pool or electric vehicle(s). If you're actually looking, I'd recommend doing an analysis of your actual normal electrical load before choosing a generator. 

[Updawg 2266]

I seriously doubt Rex has any EV’s

If he is looking into generators then that worries me

[Spaulding Smails 1552]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

 

I would think that size of home is on the cusp of needing a larger generator for true full home backup depending on appliances (e.g., electric or gas furnace, stove, oven, etc) and things like a pool or electric vehicle(s). If you're actually looking, I'd recommend doing an analysis of your actual normal electrical load before choosing a generator. 

You're exactly right in all aspects of load.  26-KW is the largest air cooled model Generac makes and is typically what we sell for most 2,500 - 4,500 SF homes.  Huge price jump with liquid cooled to get a larger unit.  But, they'll run continuously for a much longer duration and can handle a full load without interruption for a significant duration without shutting down non-critical circuits.  

[Captainant 27637]

2 hours ago, Spaulding Smails said:

You're exactly right in all aspects of load.  26-KW is the largest air cooled model Generac makes and is typically what we sell for most 2,500 - 4,500 SF homes.  Huge price jump with liquid cooled to get a larger unit.  But, they'll run continuously for a much longer duration and can handle a full load without interruption for a significant duration without shutting down non-critical circuits.  

I feel like you'd have to be operating an enterprise for that to have favorable economics

Edited June 15 by Captainant

[deft 6839]

Easy then. Build a small scale crypto “farm” in the backyard and don’t forget to apply for your ag exempti….make your political donation. Anyways, It can be made to be affordable.

[immamac 42837]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2024/06/13/ercot-ceo-stuns-texas-officials-with-new-estimate-for-power-needs/

If you don't have batteries for your home yet then you need to make a plan to get them soon. Texas is about to be shithole status. 

[Hmbre97 6305]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:54 AM, Captainant said:

No no no, we shouldn't be funding battery storage! We should be writing checks to crypto miners from China so that we can induce demand to induce supply! Why on earth would Texas take a direct step towards addressing a problem when they could instead enrich a business with public funds and hope for a second or third order desired outcome?

Trickle Down Economics 2: Electric Bugaloo

[Hmbre97 6305]

52 minutes ago, immamac said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2024/06/13/ercot-ceo-stuns-texas-officials-with-new-estimate-for-power-needs/

If you don't have batteries for your home yet then you need to make a plan to get them soon. Texas is about to be shithole status. 

[SydneyCarton 48056]

18 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Cost?  My home is 4300 SF. 

Still waiting on my bid. It depends on the labor really. Is your natural gas line entering your home by your breaker box, or is it far AF away like mine? 
 

Im getting a 14kw generator and expect it to be about 15. The generator costs 6k after taxes. A generator for your home is probably 8-9, since you’d need a 26kw or so.