Iran

[Jhawk 1075]

6 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

It supports the case for war. Go to war with Iran late next year so it's still in its early stages and we're kicking ass with air superiority when the 2020 election rolls around. You'll get votes that way because our military kicking ass makes you popular and people don't want to change leadership while we're kicking ass. You can't invade too soon or you'll be stuck in the quagmire of occupation when you have no workable solution for a replacement government. 

It's like Dubya and Iraq. He wasn't going to make the same mistake his dad did. Bush 41's popularity was through the roof during the war and if the turkey shoot had lasted until the election then he would've been reelected easily. There were those who wanted to invade Iraq by early 2002 but Dubya waited until a lot closer to the election. If George wasn't consciously aware of the political implications, Karl most certainly was and would've advised accordingly.

The Saudis and Israelis supported that foolishness too. 

I agree with all of the above on the whole, but if Trump gets elected again it won't because he is at war.  One of the biggest campaign issues was the misuse of war.  Trump isn't going to get into war just to have that as a headline.  As a trump supporter he will lose my support by working up a war and I am not the only one that feels this way.  I think going to war in Iran is at best a net zero for him in election polls (and is likely detrimental).  As polarizing a figure as he is people aren't going to use "well we need consistent leadership in wartime" as the last hurdle to jump when pulling the lever for him.  You either are voting for him or you aren't and it has almost nothing to do with Iran unless war with Iran is a deal breaker for you like it would be for me.

[kevwun 16269]

What exactly do you think is happening right now?  Bolton is a warhawk.  Trump ignored the advice of Mattis and pulled out of this deal.  He is most definitely working his way towards a war.  

Edited May 8, 2018 by kevwun

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

One for every occasion. 

Wait, make that two...

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by Hank Kingsley

[WhatTheBuck 28904]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So we violated the Iran deal today by choice, betrayed our European Allies, and damaged US credibility even further.

Another big win for Russia.

When the deal was made I would've bet the farm that if anyone broke the deal it would be the Iranians. This is truly mind boggling. 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

38 minutes ago, Native Horn said:

And of course the obligatory "We'll see" when a reporter asks him if the American hostages in Nork are giong to be released.  

[Fozzz 152]

3 minutes ago, TornACL said:

You're very good at writing quips that seem clever but that don't actually say anything.

It's actually not awkward at all. Sometimes blowing up a bad deal puts you in an even worse position than living with the bad deal. Trump always harps on the "cash" that we gave to Iran. Does he think we're getting that back by backing out of this deal? LOL

There were some arms control people who took that approach, but there were also plenty of people attacking the deal after it was implemented.  Hell, Rubio had an "op-ed" in Fox News yesterday arguing that Trump should kill it.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/05/07/senator-marco-rubio-president-trump-should-nix-iran-nuclear-deal.html

[GHOSTUSER 361]

While Trump has been an idiot on a lot of matters, he has been right on the money when it comes to foreign policy. This hopefully will be the death knell for the Islamic Republic. The rial will most surely collapse even further. Even though the Europeans are not pulling out, you will not see any foreign investment in Iran because it’s just too risky.

Obama’s naïveté hurt American interests. Remember how Obama supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump has smartly backed our great ally Gen. Sisi in Egypt who saved his country from Islamic theocratic hell. Look at what Trump’s tough talk led to with North Korea. They came to the table and are going to end their nuclear program. Pulling out will hopefully lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Bravo President Trump.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Tuco 5093]

19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It's going to be more expensive in both dollars and lives this time.

And so much more pointless.  Yeah, Iran has its issues.  But they do actually have legitimate elections.  While the clerics may select who is allowed to run, the pool the selected this last time around wasn't too bad. No, you aren't going to see any secular radicals, but they'd have little chance of winning anyway.  They did filter out Ahmadinejad from running again, and he was really the most anti-West idiot Iran has put in during the last 20 years. Rouhani is considered a moderate and relatively open to the West.  Guiliani mentioned regime change.  To what, another fucking monarchy?  We are not going to get better than Rouhani in any kind of democratic process.  Who they have in power right now is our best case scenario. And pulling out of the deal and spouting off about "regime change" is doing everything possible to undercut his support and the message to Iran that the moderate path is the best path.  We have no endgame, just unmitigated, unreasoned vitriol. 

 

[Anastasis 23699]

19 minutes ago, maninblack said:

The only people that benefit are Israel, Saudi, the MIC, globalists in our government and hardliners in Iran.

Dem cruise missiles don't sell themselves bro. 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 minute ago, Tuco said:

And so much more pointless.  Yeah, Iran has its issues.  But they do actually have legitimate elections.  While the clerics may select who is allowed to run, the pool the selected this last time around wasn't too bad. No, you aren't going to see any secular radicals, but they'd have little chance of winning anyway.  They did filter out Ahmadinejad from running again, and he was really the most anti-West idiot Iran has put in during the last 20 years. Rouhani is considered a moderate and relatively open to the West.  Guiliani mentioned regime change.  To what, another fucking monarchy?  We are not going to get better than Rouhani in any kind of democratic process.  Who they have in power right now is our best case scenario. And pulling out of the deal and spouting off about "regime change" is doing everything possible to undercut his support and the message to Iran that the moderate path is the best path.  We have no endgame, just unmitigated, unreasoned vitriol. 

 

Dotus should have ridden out of the press conference like this:

[TornACL 7792]

4 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

While Trump has been an idiot on a lot of matters, he has been right on the money when it comes to foreign policy. This hopefully will be the death knell for the Islamic Republic. The rial will most surely collapse even further. Even though the Europeans are not pulling out, you will not see any foreign investment in Iran because it’s just too risky.

Obama’s naïveté hurt American interests. Remember how Obama supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump has smartly backed our great ally Gen. Sisi in Egypt who saved his country from Islamic theocratic hell. Look at what Trump’s tough talk led to with North Korea. They came to the table and are going to end their nuclear program. Pulling out will hopefully lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Bravo President Trump.

I hope this happens as much as the next person, but can we please stop acting as though this is a done deal?

[936horn 942]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Buckle up

[Fozzz 152]

lmao

https://twitter.com/digby56/status/993925981185261568

[936horn 942]

3 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

lmao

https://twitter.com/digby56/status/993925981185261568

Might be unrelated in fairness, Israel recently conducted airstrikes on targets in Syria

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44046049

Edited May 8, 2018 by 936horn

[kevwun 16269]

Nothing will make the Iranians crave Democracy more than us killing a few million of them.  Were some of you in a coma during the Iraq war?  This shit does not work in the Middle East.

[936horn 942]

Just now, kevwun said:

Nothing will make the Iranians crave Democracy more than us killing a few million of them.  Were some of you in a coma during the Iraq war?  This shit does not work in the Middle East.

Exactly. Nothing we do will fix the ME. Nothing. This shit has been going on for literally thousands of years. It has to be solved by the ME countries (not likely) and it sure as shit isn't ever going to be solved by westerners.

[hayden_horn 11401]

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

this is the problem with the america first, america only approach to foreign policy. it forces others to act in strictly their own self-interests.

[WhatTheBuck 28904]

This is a big win for the mullahs and religious hardliners in Iran. It's a huge hit to the moderate Rouhani. 

Religious conservatives don't want peace. They're the enemies. All of them. The Ayatollah, the Saudi Royals, al Qaeda and ISIS and the Taliban, the Republicans, Likud, and on and on. Fuck all of them. 

[kevwun 16269]

We can solve it if we carpet bomb them in to submission like Germany and Japan.  You literally have to beat the civilian population in to submission.  I don't particularly have the stomach for that when it's a war we started.  Precision strikes and occupation just create a really determined resistance movement and Iran has twice as many people as Iraq.

Edited May 8, 2018 by kevwun

[Anastasis 23699]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

this is the problem with the america first, america only approach to foreign policy. it forces others to act in strictly their own self-interests.

Except this really has nothing to do with putting American interests first in American foreign policy.  This has to do with putting the interests of the war mongers first.

Edited May 8, 2018 by Anastasis

[Tuco 5093]

6 minutes ago, OatmealRaisinCookie said:

Wow this level of justification and rationalizing is really weak.

Do you think the US is going to do something - anything - which will result in a more pro-West government in Iran?  Do you think the level of democratic representation in Saddam-era Iraq approached that of current day Iran?

 

[maninblack 7975]

Does anyone still believe the Syrian lie?

[Hank Scorpio 17924]

7 minutes ago, 936horn said:

Exactly. Nothing we do will fix the ME. Nothing. This shit has been going on for literally thousands of years. It has to be solved by the ME countries (not likely) and it sure as shit isn't ever going to be solved by westerners.

It's going to be solved by Jared Kushner. 

[maninblack 7975]

10 minutes ago, 936horn said:

Might be unrelated in fairness, Israel recently conducted airstrikes on targets in Syria

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44046049

[Mojo Hand 4580]

28 minutes ago, TornACL said:

You're very good at writing quips that seem clever but that don't actually say anything.

It's actually not awkward at all. Sometimes blowing up a bad deal puts you in an even worse position than living with the bad deal. Trump always harps on the "cash" that we gave to Iran. Does he think we're getting that back by backing out of this deal? LOL

Bullshit.  The Iran deal was a good deal.  It wasn't perfect, but diplomacy never is.  Republicans across the board seized on the imperfections to make a phony case against the deal for purely partisan reasons.  Not coincidentally, this is the same party that is already celebrating a mere planned sit-down between Trump and Kim as worthy of the Nobel, and would collectively jizz if he were to get NK to agree to a deal half as good for us as the Iran deal.   This is happening because opposition to the Iran deal was turned into a thing for the base in the 2016 election.   "Well sure we said it was the worst deal ever but that doesn't mean we wanted to exit it" doesn't cut it. 

[Fozzz 152]

13 minutes ago, 936horn said:

Might be unrelated in fairness, Israel recently conducted airstrikes on targets in Syria

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44046049

They won't respond by invading fucking Israel.  This sounds legit though.

https://twitter.com/NeriZilber/status/993934447933378560

[Lagunamadre 1975]

25 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

While Trump has been an idiot on a lot of matters, he has been right on the money when it comes to foreign policy. This hopefully will be the death knell for the Islamic Republic. The rial will most surely collapse even further. Even though the Europeans are not pulling out, you will not see any foreign investment in Iran because it’s just too risky.

Obama’s naïveté hurt American interests. Remember how Obama supported Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Trump has smartly backed our great ally Gen. Sisi in Egypt who saved his country from Islamic theocratic hell. Look at what Trump’s tough talk led to with North Korea. They came to the table and are going to end their nuclear program. Pulling out will hopefully lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Bravo President Trump.

If only we could come to an agreement with Iran and all of our allies to bring them to the table to end their nuclear program. 

[wildcat09 29557]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Except this really has nothing to do with putting American interests first in American foreign policy.  This has to do with putting the interests of the war mongers first.

Psssst, that is what everyone who has ever run on a platform of "[Insert country name here] First!" has actually been about.

[WhatTheBuck 28904]

19 minutes ago, kevwun said:

We can solve it if we carpet bomb them in to submission like Germany and Japan.  You literally have to beat the civilian population in to submission.  I don't particularly have the stomach for that when it's a war we started.  Precision strikes and occupation just create a really determined resistance movement and Iran has twice as many people as Iraq.

You're talking about a country that sent tens of thousands of children to their deaths, armed only with holy scripture, in the face of Iraqi forces. 

What are the demographics of the civilian population? How are they divided between urban and rural populations? The problem is that carpet bombing works best on urban populations but in Iran that's where the educated, moderate, secular, middle class, America-friendly population resides. Like in the U.S., the less educated, fundamentalist religious conservatives who support the theocracy dominate the rural population. 

Edited May 8, 2018 by WhatTheBuck

[kevwun 16269]

That wasn't meant as a serious strategy, but it's the only thing that hasn't been tried in the Middle East either because of self-imposed restraint or lack of military capability.  Everything short of it has failed.  I hope we don't have the stomach for that kind of war anymore unless it's a matter of survival.

Edited May 8, 2018 by kevwun

[Jhawk 1075]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

What exactly do you think is happening right now?  Bolton is a warhawk.  Trump ignored the advice of Mattis and pulled out of this deal.  He is most definitely working his way towards a war.  

Just like when war with NK was imminent.

Like I said, I will be the first to bash trump if we go to war.  But we are not at war right now.  We have not stated that we are going to go to war.  There is still a lot to be done for this to play out.  You never know... Iran might denuclearize and unify with the old islamic republic with their friends in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mauritania.

[Fozzz 152]

Sounds like the game plan now is for Israel to bomb Damascus each week until Iran retaliates.  

[kevwun 16269]

4 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Just like when war with NK was imminent.

Like I said, I will be the first to bash trump if we go to war.  But we are not at war right now.  We have not stated that we are going to go to war.  There is still a lot to be done for this to play out.  You never know... Iran might denuclearize and unify with the old islamic republic with their friends in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mauritania.

How is China gonna solve this problem?

[maninblack 7975]

Just now, kevwun said:

How is China gonna solve this problem?

Short the US dollar and immediately start exchanging Yuan for oil. 

[GHOSTUSER 361]

41 minutes ago, Tuco said:

And so much more pointless.  Yeah, Iran has its issues.  But they do actually have legitimate elections.  While the clerics may select who is allowed to run, the pool the selected this last time around wasn't too bad. No, you aren't going to see any secular radicals, but they'd have little chance of winning anyway.  They did filter out Ahmadinejad from running again, and he was really the most anti-West idiot Iran has put in during the last 20 years. Rouhani is considered a moderate and relatively open to the West.  Guiliani mentioned regime change.  To what, another fucking monarchy?  We are not going to get better than Rouhani in any kind of democratic process.  Who they have in power right now is our best case scenario. And pulling out of the deal and spouting off about "regime change" is doing everything possible to undercut his support and the message to Iran that the moderate path is the best path.  We have no endgame, just unmitigated, unreasoned vitriol. 

 

You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. My credentials: I’m Iranian-American and know what the fuck is going on in Iran. Rouhani is no moderate and no candidates other than mullah ass lickers are vetted. The people of Iran are disgusted with this regime.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-strikes-and-worker-protests-erupt-across-iran-this-is-slavery-1525626832

 

[Brisketexan 106625]

Trump is so fucking easy to play it ain’t even funny.

Israel plays him, on top of the “it was something Obama did, so you should undo it” card. It was inevitable.

If you’re MOVING the chess pieces, you’re a leader. If you’re the chess piece being moved by someone else, you’re not.

[Fozzz 152]

3 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. My credentials: I’m Iranian-American and know what the fuck is going on in Iran. Rouhani is no moderate and no candidates other than mullah ass lickers are vetted. The people of Iran are disgusted with this regime.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-strikes-and-worker-protests-erupt-across-iran-this-is-slavery-1525626832

 

US forces will be celebrated as liberators when they enter Tehran!

[wildcat09 29557]

9 minutes ago, Jhawk said:

Just like when war with NK was imminent.

Like I said, I will be the first to bash trump if we go to war.  But we are not at war right now.  We have not stated that we are going to go to war.  There is still a lot to be done for this to play out.  You never know... Iran might denuclearize and unify with the old islamic republic with their friends in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mauritania.

Iran might denuclearize like you might get struck by lightning in the next hour. It's theoretically possible, but the odds against either are enormous.

[wildcat09 29557]

2 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. My credentials: I’m Iranian-American and know what the fuck is going on in Iran. Rouhani is no moderate and no candidates other than mullah ass lickers are vetted. The people of Iran are disgusted with this regime.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-strikes-and-worker-protests-erupt-across-iran-this-is-slavery-1525626832

 

Iraqis were disgusted with Saddam. That didn't mean they loved it when we came in and bombed the shit out of them. 

[maninblack 7975]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Trump is so fucking easy to play it ain’t even funny.

Israel plays him, on top of the “it was something Obama did, so you should undo it” card. It was inevitable.

If you’re MOVING the chess pieces, you’re a leader. If you’re the chess piece being moved by someone else, you’re not.

Saudi and Israel. Same thing in Syria with the "chemical weapon attack" response.

It's no surprise Macron was called. He bows to the same masters.

Edited May 8, 2018 by maninblack

[hayden_horn 11401]

Quote

Barack Obama
26 mins · 
There are few issues more important to the security of the United States than the potential spread of nuclear weapons, or the potential for even more destructive war in the Middle East. That’s why the United States negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the first place.

The reality is clear. The JCPOA is working – that is a view shared by our European allies, independent experts, and the current U.S. Secretary of Defense. The JCPOA is in America’s interest – it has significantly rolled back Iran’s nuclear program. And the JCPOA is a model for what diplomacy can accomplish – its inspections and verification regime is precisely what the United States should be working to put in place with North Korea. Indeed, at a time when we are all rooting for diplomacy with North Korea to succeed, walking away from the JCPOA risks losing a deal that accomplishes – with Iran – the very outcome that we are pursuing with the North Koreans.

That is why today’s announcement is so misguided. Walking away from the JCPOA turns our back on America’s closest allies, and an agreement that our country’s leading diplomats, scientists, and intelligence professionals negotiated. In a democracy, there will always be changes in policies and priorities from one Administration to the next. But the consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America’s credibility, and puts us at odds with the world’s major powers.

Debates in our country should be informed by facts, especially debates that have proven to be divisive. So it’s important to review several facts about the JCPOA.

First, the JCPOA was not just an agreement between my Administration and the Iranian government. After years of building an international coalition that could impose crippling sanctions on Iran, we reached the JCPOA together with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the European Union, Russia, China, and Iran. It is a multilateral arms control deal, unanimously endorsed by a United Nations Security Council Resolution.

Second, the JCPOA has worked in rolling back Iran’s nuclear program. For decades, Iran had steadily advanced its nuclear program, approaching the point where they could rapidly produce enough fissile material to build a bomb. The JCPOA put a lid on that breakout capacity. Since the JCPOA was implemented, Iran has destroyed the core of a reactor that could have produced weapons-grade plutonium; removed two-thirds of its centrifuges (over 13,000) and placed them under international monitoring; and eliminated 97 percent of its stockpile of enriched uranium – the raw materials necessary for a bomb. So by any measure, the JCPOA has imposed strict limitations on Iran's nuclear program and achieved real results.

Third, the JCPOA does not rely on trust – it is rooted in the most far-reaching inspections and verification regime ever negotiated in an arms control deal. Iran’s nuclear facilities are strictly monitored. International monitors also have access to Iran’s entire nuclear supply chain, so that we can catch them if they cheat. Without the JCPOA, this monitoring and inspections regime would go away.

Fourth, Iran is complying with the JCPOA. That was not simply the view of my Administration. The United States intelligence community has continued to find that Iran is meeting its responsibilities under the deal, and has reported as much to Congress. So have our closest allies, and the international agency responsible for verifying Iranian compliance – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Fifth, the JCPOA does not expire. The prohibition on Iran ever obtaining a nuclear weapon is permanent. Some of the most important and intrusive inspections codified by the JCPOA are permanent. Even as some of the provisions in the JCPOA do become less strict with time, this won’t happen until ten, fifteen, twenty, or twenty-five years into the deal, so there is little reason to put those restrictions at risk today.

Finally, the JCPOA was never intended to solve all of our problems with Iran. We were clear-eyed that Iran engages in destabilizing behavior – including support for terrorism, and threats toward Israel and its neighbors. But that’s precisely why it was so important that we prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Every aspect of Iranian behavior that is troubling is far more dangerous if their nuclear program is unconstrained. Our ability to confront Iran’s destabilizing behavior – and to sustain a unity of purpose with our allies – is strengthened with the JCPOA, and weakened without it.

Because of these facts, I believe that the decision to put the JCPOA at risk without any Iranian violation of the deal is a serious mistake. Without the JCPOA, the United States could eventually be left with a losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East. We all know the dangers of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon. It could embolden an already dangerous regime; threaten our friends with destruction; pose unacceptable dangers to America’s own security; and trigger an arms race in the world’s most dangerous region. If the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program under the JCPOA are lost, we could be hastening the day when we are faced with the choice between living with that threat, or going to war to prevent it.

In a dangerous world, America must be able to rely in part on strong, principled diplomacy to secure our country. We have been safer in the years since we achieved the JCPOA, thanks in part to the work of our diplomats, many members of Congress, and our allies. Going forward, I hope that Americans continue to speak out in support of the kind of strong, principled, fact-based, and unifying leadership that can best secure our country and uphold our responsibilities around the globe.

 

[Brisketexan 106625]

Saudi and Israel. Same thing in Syria with the "chemical weapon attack" response.
It's no surprise Macron was called. He bows to the same masters.

Dammit. Meant to include Saudi in this - if you think that they weren’t playing Trump too (all with the Yemen conflict in mind), I’ve got a bridge to sell ya.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

What’s funny is people actually think Trump has a coherent foreign policy.

If you want to give him credit for being politically savvy enough to leverage American long term interest for his own short term political gain, that’s fair.  But don’t pretend like this guy knows what he’s doing or has a good understanding of the post WWII international rules based system.

There are plenty of countries that want to keep Trump looking successful because he’s so easy to manipulate.

[relapse98 634]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

What’s funny is people actually think Trump has a coherent foreign policy.

To be fair, nobody competent believes that.

[SmokeyTheBear 5569]

What's really awesome is that Iran got their money back without us enforcing anything. 

#4dchess

[GHOSTUSER 361]

3 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

US forces will be celebrated as liberators when they enter Tehran!

Who the fuck is advocating for a US invasion of Iran? Not Trump, not me that’s for sure. This is a great move by Trump because it is going to devalue the rial even further and drive the economy off the cliff. This was a necessary kicking of the chair of a regime that had tied a noose around itself. I have family in Iran. This is going to hurt their pocketbook but they support what it takes to get rid of these bastards.

[Fozzz 152]

I give the regime six months.  

[Lagunamadre 1975]

10 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

You have no idea what the fuck you are talking about. My credentials: I’m Iranian-American and know what the fuck is going on in Iran. Rouhani is no moderate and no candidates other than mullah ass lickers are vetted. The people of Iran are disgusted with this regime.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-strikes-and-worker-protests-erupt-across-iran-this-is-slavery-1525626832

 

So are your friends and family in Iran happy that we pulled out of the deal and are reinstating sanctions? Will this make us more popular with your people? 

[hayden_horn 11401]

Just now, Iconoclast Texan said:

Who the fuck is advocating for a US invasion of Iran? Not Trump, not me that’s for sure. This is a great move by Trump because it is going to devalue the rial even further and drive the economy off the cliff. This was a necessary kicking of the chair of a regime that had tied a noose around itself. I have family in Iran. This is going to hurt their pocketbook but they support what it takes to get rid of these bastards.

you get rid of rouhaini, who will you get next?