CFP expansion discussion

[Hurtlocker 2213]

On 6/25/2021 at 9:43 AM, Zeus said:

4 team playoff = $$$$

12 team playoff = $$$$$$$$$$$$

16 team playoff = $$$$$$

Somebody did the math, friggin unwieldy 

Yeah two reasons why its more (outside inflation which will drive up the value on its own if we're looking out a decade).   The first is big money games not in the Playoffs are included now.   The Rose and Sugar pay out $80m a year to the top team from each of four conferences who are not in the playoffs.   The Orange pays out a bit less because its one conference and the next tier down.   Combined that's something like $230-250m a year to host good teams that don't have anything to play for, but that game, that will now be included in the 12 team.   Now that its for something, that number with likely double.  6-8m people watch NY6 games, 15-18m watch semis.

Then the more chance you have to keep the top teams alive, in football, drives eyeballs.   Top teams blowing out teams do not rate well.  Top teams grinding out wins against other top teams with something on the line do, by a massive amount.    A #1/#16 team isn't worth much up front, even if that rare time a 16 wins and gets good ratings, because you can bank on more blowouts than upsets.  Like insurance, they actuary out those numbers to value the options then lump it all together over the course of a contract.  If they think the upset will happen 5-10% of the time and its an 8 year contract, it likely won't make much of an impact.   But a 5/12 one weekend and a 4/5 the next, protects the big number, meaning, even if the 12 wins, there is buzz leading into week with either two with high ranked teams, who tend to have bigger brands, or a story of an underdog taking on big #2 for a chance to run the table.

They could probably payout more if they let teams decide if they get to play in a bowl if they lose in the first round, but currently it looks like all the teams in the top 12 are win or go home for the year.

Either way, those last four spots in a 16 are worth considerably less than ensuring 1-4 are alive the second weekend.

 

[n64ra 1086]

In 2005, the BCS was awesome. In 2008, the BCS sucked. That is all.

[notre dame joe 188]

The BCS appeared as it would allow a Boise State to play for the national title but we eventually found out the system had been gamed by the big conferences. 

 

I think this proposed bloating has the same effect.  You may think a BYU can now play its way.  But actually they now have to win the equivalent of three major bowl games in a row against more talented teams.  That's not happening.  This is a give away to 2017 Auburn or 2013 Bama.  They now get a second mulligan to fart away games without blowing their chances for a title.  I don't think I'll ever watch an Iron Bowl again. 

[perfectchaos007 6673]

I just hope the new playoff gives conference champions auto bids and locks out Notre Dame. 

[Machinator 32099]

FCB talks to Bowlsby about expansion

Spoiler

Bowlsby was a member of the four-person, Division I working group (along with Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Mountain West Conference commissioner Craig Thompson) that met over a two-year period and proposed a 12-team CFP format.

So how quickly could the CFP be expanded from four to 12, considering the current ESPN contract for the CFP runs through the 2025 season?

“Well, it's not likely to happen in the next year or two,” Bowlsby said. “I’ve seen where some say the earliest it could happen is 2023. But I don't think anybody necessarily forecasts that it’s going to happen in ’23.

“We're going to take the next four months, and maybe it's five months, maybe it's six months. But we have a CFP board meeting in September and again in January. And there's a lot of moving parts in this. We manage the CFP essentially by unanimous consent. So, if there's one of the signatories who object or a couple of the signatories in the 10 conferences and Notre Dame, this deal could get sideways.

“Now, we haven't run into any of those things just yet. But as has been said, the devil is in the details. And so the next six months or so, or thereabouts, is going to be an exploration process.”

The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded one through four and each would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded five through 12 would play each other in the first round on the home field of the higher-ranked team. (The team ranked No. 5 would host No. 12; team No. 6 would meet team No. 11; team No. 7 would play team No. 10; and team No. 8 would meet No. 9.)

Under the proposal, the quarterfinals and semifinals would be played in bowl games. The championship game would continue to be at a neutral site, as under the current format.

“We wanted to make sure that those who had earned it had a crack at getting into the playoff, and so eight just didn't seem like enough, and 16 seemed like too many,” Bowlsby said.

“And the more we began to delve into it, the more viable it became, and the more we liked the structure and how it could be set up. The real magic in 12 is for the highest-ranked conference champions, if they play all the way to the national championship game, they're only going to play one more game than they would have played otherwise.

“The only way that you get some of the big numbers (such as 17 games) that have been noted is if you're a low seed, and you've lost in your conference championship game, and you play all the way to the (CFP) championship game.

“That is fairly unlikely to happen. But you know, it will happen some year. So 12 just seemed like the right balance of access and valuing of conference championships.”

Critics have said the 12-team playoff format would detract from the regular season. What’s your opinion on that?

“With six weeks to go in the season, there'll be 35 or 40 teams that have a legitimate claim to be in the playoffs,” Bowlsby said.

“And with three weeks to play, they'll probably be 20 or 25. So that's good for in-stadium attendance. That's good for fans. It's good for TV. It's gonna bring a lot of interest to the second half of the regular season. And I think all of those were best accomplished with a 12-team model.”

The knock on the 12-team format is the potential for one or more schools to play up to 17 games in a single season. Should at least one non-conference game be removed from college football’s regular season to lessen the strain on student-athletes who could be playing between 14 and 17 games under a 12-team format?

“I was the chair of (the NCAA) football oversight (committee) for a number of years, and we we talked about the regular season,” Bowlsby said.

“We talked about whether or not we wanted to build two byes into the season. And in order to do that for everybody, you would have to start the season a week earlier. And we kind of revisited that conversation in conjunction with the playoff.

“The challenge with moving the start of the season a week earlier is also moving up preseason camp. Some schools would be starting camp on the 20th of July, and that seemed pretty early. It shortens the summer significantly.

“I think there can be a conversation about whether 12 (regular-season) games is the right number of games. I think programs like ours in the Big 12 have gotten highly reliant on being able to play seven home games - sometimes eight home games. That revenue is vital to their financial stability.

“So I think while it's a good academic discussion to have, being able to walk away from a full game of revenue is easier said than done. But I think over time, we'll look at it.

“That's one of the beauties of this. I don't believe that the 12-team model weakens the regular season. I think on the contrary, it greatly strengthens the regular season and keeps a lot of people close to the flame.”

What are the steps involved in redoing the broadcast rights for an expanded CFP before the current $470 million contract with ESPN expires?

“We have to go back and talk to our TV partners at ESPN,” Bowlsby said. “And we are having those conversations in a rapidly changing media environment.

“The migration to digital carriage is much more rapid than it was forecast to be. The cable universe is shrinking rapidly - more rapidly than it was forecast to shrink.

“So we're going to have to talk with them. And we're going to have to ascertain what their bandwidth is, because we're talking about going from three games to 11 games (for the CFP). It's not a small change.

“It's especially complicated to do it around an expanding NFL schedule, because we’re not going to put games in direct conflict with the AFC and NFC Championship games as an example.

“There's a lot of media stuff to go through. We also have partnerships with our New Year’s Six bowls, and we have to go back to them. In the case of the Big 12 and the SEC, we have a contract with the Sugar Bowl, where we're signatories to the television contract, and it's a very large contract - it's 10s of billions of dollars.

“Similarly, the Big Ten and Pac-12 have a contract with the Rose Bowl for the same thing. We have structured this so that we have some of our traditional bowl partners on New Year's Day with quarterfinal games. So we've tried to respect the bowl environment. But we've also struck a balance with some games on campus.

“So, it's got a lot of moving parts, and we don't want to try and shove a 10-pound ham down a funnel. We want to include our partners. We want to value their contribution and their traditions. But we also have a desire to get this done and to make it work.

“So, aspirationally, our board is going to have another crack at it in terms of approving it. And if we come back and say, ‘Well, here's the deal,’ and there are elements of it that people don't like, then we may or may not get there.

“I think what has come out of our meetings is that we think the 12-team model is a good model. We don't know yet about the feasibility of all of those aspects, and we'll go through the process. If it turns out that it's not doable in the near term - in 2023 or 2024 or whenever before the end of the contract, then I think what you'll see is we’ll probably stay relatively committed to the 12-team model, but won't implement it until the end of the contract.”

What were the deciding factors in going with a 12-team model as opposed to an eight-team model?

“I think that's probably the the the seminal question that has been asked of us,” Bowlsby said. “When you look at eight, and if you believe that there's an opportunity to, or perhaps a necessity, to provide more participation opportunities, all of a sudden you get to the point where you say, well, ‘Are we going to have six automatic qualifiers and two at-larges?’ That just didn't seem like it was enough.

“You could certainly look at it and say, ‘Well, the A Five has brought most of the value to the College Football Playoff. Let's go with the five A Fives and three at-larges or maybe five and the highest-ranked Group of Five, it didn't seem right that we would have automatic qualifications.

“This needs to be an eat-what-you-kill environment and needs to be based on strength of schedule and the like. And so we pretty well got ourselves to the point where we wanted to value conference championships. And that's evident in the model.”

What would the impact of a 12-team playoff be on the non-New Year’s Six bowls?

“It's a fair question to ask,” Bowlsby said. “Does it does it hurt some of the traditional bowl games that have been around? Right now, we don't know what bowls will be involved in the playoffs.

“We'll be talking with lots of them over the next three or four months to determine the feasibility of it. But the fact is, there are a lot of bowl games and it's a good thing for players and coaches and institutions to play in the postseason.

“There are also a lot of the bowl games that are not strong financially and are not greatly anticipated. They don't have long traditions, and so it's not clear exactly what will happen with some of the bowl architecture. But we certainly have made the decisions with those thoughts in mind, and some of that’s just going to have to play itself out.”

 

[WhatTheBuck 28788]

On 6/25/2021 at 6:08 PM, Bill Lumbergh said:

 

 

This part was really, really funny. I'm not going to address any of the rest of the idiocy you're spouting. Even by Ohio State standards, it's really dumb
 

 

Doesn’t move the needle. Get ready to enjoy your 16 team playoff because it’s coming. I think you’re too ignorant of football (and basketball) history to recognize your own idiocy. So your insult rings hollow. 

[Godzillatron 292]

Mack trying to f it up

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31783893/north-carolina-players-not-favor-12-team-college-football-playoff-says-coach-mack-brown

[atomheartbevo 89732]

6 minutes ago, Godzillatron said:

Mack trying to f it up

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31783893/north-carolina-players-not-favor-12-team-college-football-playoff-says-coach-mack-brown

Sounds like he's coaching soft players.

[ousux 5597]

Then how about one up the SEC model, go to 2 divisions of 5, play 7 conference games, bring in a bunch of sisters of the poor in late October AND late November for those 4 and 5th OOC games, then profit when most of the conference ends with 10+ wins

SEC model only works when you have a major sports network running inteference for you...they've even managed to downplay aggy's historical success rate as if they've always been a contender.

[Hurtlocker 2213]

16 hours ago, ousux said:

On 6/11/2021 at 10:20 AM, Treefidy said:

Then how about one up the SEC model, go to 2 divisions of 5, play 7 conference games, bring in a bunch of sisters of the poor in late October AND late November for those 4 and 5th OOC games, then profit when most of the conference ends with 10+ wins

SEC model only works when you have a major sports network running inteference for you...they've even managed to downplay aggy's historical success rate as if they've always been a contender.

It also requires you to win the big games when you get there.   Doesn't matter if you played 8 scrubs or no scrubs at that point, win the game an everyone forgets the rest.

[ButtFumble 5180]

16 hours ago, ousux said:

On 6/11/2021 at 9:20 AM, Treefidy said:

Then how about one up the SEC model, go to 2 divisions of 5, play 7 conference games, bring in a bunch of sisters of the poor in late October AND late November for those 4 and 5th OOC games, then profit when most of the conference ends with 10+ wins

SEC model only works when you have a major sports network running inteference for you...they've even managed to downplay aggy's historical success rate as if they've always been a contender.

it is not an all or nothing thing

you do not have to schedule 5 garbage opponents or even 3 garbage opponents if you play 5 OOC games

you can schedule all the quality games you want you are not locked into garbage teams for the OOC

and more importantly the math that was run on the PAC 12 shows that even of other members of the conference schedule more garbage as long as they beat those teams it is beneficial to the conference overall and especially the top teams in the conference

and ESPN or any other media partner will carry the weight for any program or conference that is winning, but they will also not care if your conference chooses to beat itself up more and frag down the lower teams in the conference further as long as the bigger names win more.....but long term we all know that will drag down a conference and then ESPN or anyone else will pay less because they can 

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

On 6/14/2021 at 11:05 AM, TXSooner518 said:

The round robin is the best way to actually determine a champion.

It is, in an ideal world without an independent domer, the rose bowl celebration of b1g/pac special-ness, and an secx3 rewarded for playing -1 conference games and +1 (in the case of aggy +2) fcs games.  In this non-idea world we live in, even with 12 teams, the round robin can not counterbalance the rest of the bullshit on it's own.  the CCG on top of the roundrobin still is a push.  The only way to get back to even against the bullshit is to get back to 12 and drop a conference game.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Hagbard Celine
derp

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

On 6/15/2021 at 11:04 AM, LTbear said:

7 conference games is stupid. 8 is fine. 

In a world where the secx3 isn't rewarded for -1 conference and +1 fcs.

[clapclapclap 9000]

 

[BigHornedLurker 1947]

ESPN : "You're objections are noted, what do you think about more money and you do what we say?" 

[closetohumping 17449]

14 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

 

Seems reactionary by the other guys.  SEC still likely gets two in, along with 1 from B1G and 1 from ACC (for now).  Everyone else should be all about this.

[Bartles 769]

16 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

ESPN : "You're objections are noted, what do you think about more money and you do what we say?" 

Yep. The most Fox-dependent conference (Pac-12) just happens to be the one who wants to tap the breaks and let the current TV contract play out so Fox can bid on the expanded playoff too.

[clapclapclap 9000]

If the perception is that this version of expanding the cfb playoff better enables major conference realignment that may result in breaking away from the NCAA, you think the potentially left out conferences are still going to vote for it?

[hpslugga 4062]

Quote

"It creates some concern about the way the 12-team proposal was constructed."

Then go back to the 8-team model and start with the CCG's of the P4. I get that the SEC probably wouldn't like that, but what other conferences are going to be pissed off about that? 

[n64ra 1086]

No need for a 12 team CFP anymore. We have the 16 team SEC to replace the CFP.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Ohio St AD on why he's against home playoff games:

https://www.dispatch.com/story/sports/2021/07/27/cfp-games-horseshoe-not-so-fast-ohio-state-ad-smith-says/5384184001/

Spoiler

But while a December playoff game at Ohio Stadium would give the Buckeyes a competitive advantage, at least one prominent person is pumping the brakes on the idea.

Ohio State athletics director Gene Smith said he has serious reservations about the Horseshoe as a playoff site.

It’s a matter of safety because of possible bad weather, he said.

“I just think we ought to look at our reality,” said Smith, “and our reality is in the northern part of the country, we have inclement weather. And I don’t want to put the kids in a situation where they’re playing on the hard, frozen field.”

Smith played at Notre Dame in the 1970s. He was a recent graduate when Joe Montana led the Fighting Irish to a comeback victory at a frozen Cotton Bowl. Though that game became legendary, Smith considered the toll it took on players.

“Anybody that’s played on a frozen field, you don’t want to do that to them,” he said.

Smith pointed out that most fields have artificial turf, which gets particularly hard in cold weather.

“If you’re on this surface,” he said, “and it’s 10 degrees and it’s rained and snowed the night before? No, I don’t want to do that.”

…

Since the playoff started in 2014, all games have been played in the South or in California. Northern fans have questioned how Southern teams would fare in difficult weather. Northern teams are constructed with bad weather in mind. Those in the South are not.

To Smith, the competitive advantage a Northern team would have is offset by the safety issue.

“Our kids have still got to play on that, and our trainers afterward have got to fix that,” he said. “I just think it’s risky.”

Smith hasn’t done a detailed study of the weather in December in Columbus. He said if he learned the weather was milder than he believes, he’s open to changing his mind.

If not, he asked, “Why take the risk?”

…

Ohio State coach Ryan Day had a similar view.

“You talk about 18- to 22-year-olds, the wear and tear on the body, you have to be smart about that,” Day said. “We’ve got to be smart about the venues where we play. Certainly, we’d love to host the University of Miami on December 13 in the Horseshoe and 20-degree weather. But I’m not sure that’s the best experience for our student-athletes. I don’t know. Those are things to be worked out.”

Smith said he believed that Ohio State could use Lucas Oil Stadium, a dome in Indianapolis, for a home playoff game. It’s only three hours from Columbus.

Another advantage for using Lucas Oil Stadium, Smith said, is that it would eliminate the logistical issues Ohio State would face in hosting a playoff game on short notice.

“Let’s imagine we have that opportunity, and we’re hosting,” Smith said. “I’ve got to get Ohio Stadium ready lickety-split. Could we do that? No question about that. But it’d be better if we already knew, let’s say, we’re going to Indy.

“I’m not strong on this because obviously, I’m still thinking about it like everybody else. But I just think it’s the best way to go — to have those kids inside.”

 

[n64ra 1086]

How does the NFL handle it on 23 to 26 year olds in say, Cleveland?

[Huckleberry 33002]

2 minutes ago, n64ra said:

How does the NFL handle it on 23 to 26 year olds in say, Cleveland?

Well there hasn't been a playoff game in Cleveland since 1994 1/1/1995, so you might want to use a different example.

But on your general point, I agree. However, the closer they get to professionals the emptier those arguments will seem.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Huckleberry

[n64ra 1086]

21 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well there hasn't been a playoff game in Cleveland since 1994 1/1/1995, so you might want to use a different example.

But on your general point, I agree. However, the closer they get to professionals the emptier those arguments will seem.

Shit, good point. I meant Buffalo, NY!

Edited July 28, 2021 by n64ra

[TXSooner518 2438]

Shit, good point. I meant Buffalo, NY!

Or Green Bay. Or Chicago.

[clapclapclap 9000]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/ohio-state-ad-gene-smith-says-pause-button-should-be-hit-on-cfp-expansion-others-fret-over-espns-grip-on-football/ar-AAMLrBb

Ohio State AD Gene Smith says 'pause button should be hit' on CFP expansion. Others fret over ESPN's grip on football

 

Pete Thamel  1 day ago

The chances of the College Football Playoff growing to 12 teams in 2023, the first year officials have stated it could expand, appear to be diminishing.

The combination of uncertainty in the environment and a building skepticism over the power being collected by ESPN and the SEC after recent realignment moves have prompted a more cautious approach to expansion...

Spoiler

...The exploration of growing from a four-team model to 12-team model was announced in early June and is being deliberated on, with a decision expected in the fall.

“I think the pause button should be hit,” Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith told Yahoo Sports. “We need to evaluate the landscape and what it’s going to look like. We still need to evaluate the 12-team playoff. We don’t need to rush into that when there’s legitimate concerns that need to be addressed.”

ESPN's broadcast dominance of college football 

Smith is perhaps the most powerful athletic director in the country and a former member of the CFP committee. Smith’s point is tied, in part, to potential changes in the fundamental structure of conferences and overall college athletics. Essentially, it's difficult to determine access when there’s little certainty as to what leagues will look like. There’s also NCAA governance issues, as it’s uncertain what the collegiate leadership model will look like in two years.

Other leaders around the country have expressed a skepticism toward the financial value of allowing ESPN to continue to be the sole owner of the most powerful rights in college football. The College Football Playoff is, essentially, a television contract with ESPN that runs through the 2025 season. ESPN owns all of it now, which includes three playoff games and other New Year’s six bowls.

Right now, ESPN has exclusive negotiating rights because it owns the contract. The idea of bringing those rights to open market has only increased around the sport now that ESPN rode shotgun on the bold and expensive move of Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 for the SEC. (The Big 12 was mad enough in the wake of losing its two alpha members that it sent ESPN a “cease and desist” letter and alleging in an interview that ESPN “provided incentives” for another league to “destabilize” the Big 12. ESPN denied this.)

The acquisitions of OU and Texas fortifies SEC as the dominant brand in the sport, as it owns the SEC Network and all of the SEC’s relevant television rights starting in the summer of 2024. (ESPN also runs the ACC Network and owns the conference's rights through 2036, but that deal is widely viewed as so lopsided toward ESPN that it’s an impediment for the league’s future.)

The notion among many leaders around the sport: Why allow ESPN access to the most valuable set of rights around the sport without other bidders to drive up the price?

How ESPN's domination of CFP could cost conferences in long run 

It’s not uncommon among major professional sports, like the NFL and NBA, to have multiple networks broadcast their postseason. Also, that would take perhaps an additional half billion of ESPN’s dollars a year off the table that could theoretically be directed toward upcoming rights to leagues like the upcoming deals of the Big Ten (2023) and Pac-12 (2024).

“It’s behooves everyone not named the SEC and ACC [for the CFP rights to go to market],” said a Power 5 athletic director outside the Big Ten. “It’s in all of our best interest [of other leagues] to let the contract through and go to open market. Why would a streaming service want to bid on a league like the Big Ten or Pac-12 to carry the regular season if they are going to just hand it over to ESPN for the playoffs?”

The discomfort around the country with ESPN owning the entire playoff sets up the stakes for an undercurrent that will define the next iteration of conference realignment and the next generation of college sports — the ESPN and the SEC vs. Fox and everyone else. The biggest unknown in the TV market is if another traditional suitor (CBS, NBC) or streaming service will join Fox in the fray.

In January 2019, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey was among the leaders who was tasked with exploring new playoff models. In the end, Sankey, Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson clandestinely met to come up with the plan that was revealed in June.

In a phone interview Friday, Sankey said he understood the perspective of others on having pause moving toward the expanded playoff. “I respect that others can look at recent breaking news and say, ‘Let’s take a step back.’ I didn’t expect a rubber stamp.”

Sankey added: “I was never walking into this with an assumption that something would happen quickly. It has nothing to do with recent news. ... If others want to continue to deliberate, that’s not a surprise. I could have foreseen that with no breaking news.”

 

[Asu2215 247]

On 7/28/2021 at 1:08 PM, n64ra said:

How does the NFL handle it on 23 to 26 year olds in say, Cleveland?

Smith doesn't care about safety. He thinks the SEC fucked cfb with their power play and now he's grudge-fucking the SEC back. 

[LTtxfan 49254]

When you just realized your conference may never make it into the current 4 team CFP again...  😋

 

[LonghornSean 4008]

The non-profit organization "Bowl Season" can go fuck off

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/bowl-organization-wants-all-games-in-expanded-college-football-playoff-played-at-bowl-sites/

The non-profit organization Bowl Season that represents the 43 postseason bowl games has asked the College Football Playoff that all games in an expanded playoff be played entirely within the bowl system. In addition, the organization has asked for a spot at the table in further CFP discussion.

In a letter dated Monday and obtained by CBS Sports that went out to the 130 FBS presidents, athletic directors, coaches and 10 FBS commissioners, the organization stated:

"An expanded playoff should include all playoff games being played within the traditional Bowl structure, not the home site of one of the participating teams. The Bowls would provide a neutral, competitively fair setting for these games as they have throughout their history."

As currently proposed, a 12-team playoff would include four first-round play-in games for eight teams at campus sites. The next two rounds in the quarterfinals and finals would be played at bowl sites. Those sites would presumably be the current New Year's Six bowls – Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach and Rose -- though the specific sites have yet to be officially determined.

The letter is signed by Bowl Season executive director Nick Carparelli and chairman Mark Neville, executive director of the Holiday Bowl. All 43 bowl games are listed.

"To exclude Bowl games from any round of an expanded playoff would be harmful to Bowl Season, individual Bowls and their host communities, and post-season college football in general," the letter states. "The future direction of college football has reached a volatile point. As a leader and caretaker of college athletics, we appreciate your consideration of the key role the Bowls play in your university experience."

Bowl Season went on to "respectfully request to be included in the deliberative process going forward on the future of college football."

There were no immediate details on how Bowl Season representatives wished to be included in the process. CFP executive director Bill Hancock did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The expansion process has been fractionalized as CFP leaders prepare to meet Wednesday and Thursday in Irving, Texas, for the next round of talks. There has been pushback on whether the current four-team field will expand to eight or 12 or at all. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey -- part of a four-person subcommittee to make the 12-team proposal -- has stated he is fine with the four-team field if an expansion decision can't be made.

There have already been questions raised about those first-round, on-campus games due to potential missed final exams and issues with "winterization," preparing a campus stadium for freezing December temperatures. There is also a situation where a team playing a first-round game could end up on the field for a record 17 games in a season if it reaches the CFP National Championship.

Hancock recently told the Associated Press that a new playoff structure could begin as soon as the 2024 season if expansion is finalized. If not, the current contract will likely be honored through the 2025 season with the expanded playoff beginning in 2026.

Further fractionalizing discussions is how to value an expanded playoff. Several stakeholders want the current contract to expire in an effort to maximize the value of a new, expanded playoff with multiple bidders taking part in the TV rights.

Bowl executives have complained about the impact of a championship postseason since the BCS was established in 1998. Alabama coach Nick Saban has argued in the past that the season focusing on the playoff has been detrimental to the regular season and other traditional bowl games.

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has been vocal about how an expanded playoff will enhance the regular season.

"It's going to be very good for regular-season TV," Bowlsby told CBS Sports. "It's going to be very good for regular-season attendance. This time of year, Week 7 or 8, there's going to be 40 teams that have a legitimate rooting possibility of being in there. Another 3-4 weeks from now, there's still going to be 20-25 teams. That's a far cry from [saying] 'Who's in' and there are 4 or 5 teams that have a chance."

[BigHornedLurker 1947]

Im a huge proponent of including some small set of bowls in the playoff system, but I don't think a mandate is something I would support. 

Bowl games have mostly shitty attendance as it is, and we should have some round of games on campuses to enhance what makes CFB special . 

That said, I'm totally full of lack of surprise the bowl committees are taking that position, they see their gravy train coming to an end 

[hpslugga 4062]

14 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

Im a huge proponent of including some small set of bowls in the playoff system, but I don't think a mandate is something I would support. 

Bowl games have mostly shitty attendance as it is, and we should have some round of games on campuses to enhance what makes CFB special . 

That said, I'm totally full of lack of surprise the bowl committees are taking that position, they see their gravy train coming to an end 

Right, this is a real “wouldn’t you know who won the pony” moment in the CFP/CFB discourse about this silly topic.

['stache 21820]

I just don't understand why conference championship games aren't considered the first round of the playoffs. 

CUSA is dead. If everyone goes to 16 teams, the Big XII will die. That's 8 leagues. All champions are in. You can still use all the bias you want in seeding to make sure Alabama starts with the worst G4 champion. There, it's done.

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

this is fantastic news

bowls in fear mode means the winds of change are blowing

they are hearing the tea leaves rustling in advance of the meeting next week

KILL THE BOWLS

 

 

[bullet 1597]

https://theathletic.com/2920925/2021/10/29/college-football-playoff-expansion-talks-to-resume-with-focus-on-finding-consensus-on-8-vs-12-teams/

Alliance being intransigent.  Wants to push 8 team model.

[n64ra 1086]

On 10/28/2021 at 1:33 PM, 'stache said:

I just don't understand why conference championship games aren't considered the first round of the playoffs.

With 8 or 16 spots, I think you are saying a 1 loss team that didn't win their division can never make the playoffs.

[USNALonghorn 5078]

6 hours ago, n64ra said:

With 8 or 16 spots, I think you are saying a 1 loss team that didn't win their division can never make the playoffs.

Sounds right. If you can’t win your division, you shouldn’t be playing for the national championship.

[Wulaw Horn 19109]

9 hours ago, USNALonghorn said:

Sounds right. If you can’t win your division, you shouldn’t be playing for the national championship.

I mean, this will definitely rule out always getting the best teams in the playoffs  but I’m not completely opposed to the idea I suppose. 

[WhatTheBuck 28788]

When the playoff inevitably expands to 16 teams (and then more), a coach will be able to make a lengthy career by just making the playoff frequently enough without ever winning a championship of any kind. Just like in the basketball tournament. 

[USNALonghorn 5078]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean, this will definitely rule out always getting the best teams in the playoffs  but I’m not completely opposed to the idea I suppose. 

The “best team” is a very subjective term. Is the “best team” the one that peaked while in the playoffs or is it the one that sustained their performance throughout the entire season. I’m of the opinion that a team needs to prove they deserve to be in the playoff by winning their division. The whole “eye” test bullshit ESPN uses to suck off SEC runner up teams annoys the shit out of me.

[Wulaw Horn 19109]

7 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

The “best team” is a very subjective term. Is the “best team” the one that peaked while in the playoffs or is it the one that sustained their performance throughout the entire season. I’m of the opinion that a team needs to prove they deserve to be in the playoff by winning their division. The whole “eye” test bullshit ESPN uses to suck off SEC runner up teams annoys the shit out of me.

Sure. It’s a choice. By best team I mean it’s pretty clear in the days of the old big 12 south that a UT team that went 11-1 and lost to OU, or an 11-1 Bama team that lost to LSU is better than a 3 loss ACC team. There’s no doubt about that. At all. 
But, if you want to say winning your division is the first part of going to the playoffs that’s fine, winning your division is within your control so it’s a totally fair criteria I won’t cry about. 
the converse side- that if you are looking for the “Best 12 teams” there will clearly be times where 2 of the best 12 share the same division 

[n64ra 1086]

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. It’s a choice. By best team I mean it’s pretty clear in the days of the old big 12 south that a UT team that went 11-1 and lost to OU, or an 11-1 Bama team that lost to LSU is better than a 3 loss ACC team. There’s no doubt about that. At all. 
But, if you want to say winning your division is the first part of going to the playoffs that’s fine, winning your division is within your control so it’s a totally fair criteria I won’t cry about. 
the converse side- that if you are looking for the “Best 12 teams” there will clearly be times where 2 of the best 12 share the same division 

Exactly. Winning the division makes sense with a small playoff (two under BCS, four under CFP), but that hasn't stopped Bama. When the CFP is 8 or 16 teams, winning the division no longer makes sense as a requirement. As you say, an 11-1 P5 non-division winner is probably always better than a 9-3 P5 division winner.

[Auto Driller 2506]

As long as they expand the field to 64 I think we’ve got a pretty decent shot next year.

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

meeting in grapevine today..... vewy vewy qwiet on the western front.....

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

the embargo on scuttlebutt the past 2 days indicates this a 3rd rail subject.....

https://theathletic.com/news/college-football-playoff-leaders-not-yet-agreed-on-expansion-to-meet-dec-1/bAiKv2HAtCUQ/

nicole auerbach is hot by the way....

After two days of meetings to hash out details regarding College Football Playoff expansion, a final agreement will have to wait for now. Executive director Bill Hancock said the management committee will meet again on Dec. 1, adding that the CFP needs to make a decision by the end of this year in order to have a postseason format with more than four teams in place for the 2024 regular season.

The CFP management committee, a group made up of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, met in Grapevine, Texas, on Wednesday and Thursday to try to nail down the size of the bracket, as well as the number of at-large bids and bids reserved for conference champions.

Decisions like these are required to be unanimous. The group needs to agree on the format before it can take the next steps in the expansion process — from deciding where and when games will be played to working through contractual issues with media partners and bowl games.

“There is a consensus that expansion would be good for college football," Hancock said. "It’s just a matter of how."

For months, those involved in the Playoff expansion process have been unsure that they would be able to get everyone on the same page in time to get the process rolling before the current contract with ESPN expires in 2026. At least two commissioners (in the ACC and Big Ten) have been pushing hard for an eight-team model, while the rest of the group supports a 12-team format; the Pac-12 appeared open to both sizes.

Since June, the CFP expansion conversation has centered on a 12-team format that would include the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large teams. That proposal was put forth originally on June 10 by a four-member CFP working group including Swarbrick, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson. The model’s aim is to increase access to the postseason’s marquee event and keep more teams alive in the Playoff race later into the regular season.

On Saturday, Sankey doubled down on his position and reaffirmed his preference that the CFP either remain at four teams or expand to 12. He staunchly opposes an eight-team model that would feature Power 5 conference champions and a guaranteed Group of 5 slot, because it makes room for only two at-larges.

Initially, there was hope that the expansion process could speed along quickly, culminating in approval by early fall. But the SEC’s seismic addition of Oklahoma and Texas in late July sparked a wave of conference realignment across the country, and with it came friction and suspicion.

That has affected all sorts of relationships among college sports administrators, and it led to an alliance between the three newest Power 5 commissioners (in the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12) that raised questions about the formation of the CFP working group and the process that led to a recommendation of 12 teams in the field instead of eight.

"We had a productive two days," Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren told The Athletic. "It was a worthwhile trip to Dallas. We had positive energy in the room. We're able to work through a lot of the issues that are important. We're at the point now where we need to start really unpacking some of the more meaty issues. So I look forward to our next meeting. ... I always try to go by the tone and energy in the room, and it was really positive energy in the room."

The two sides of the debate have not yet come together and hope that they can work something out next month. Otherwise, those involved wonder if it even makes sense to continue meeting frequently with no light at the end of the tunnel.

"Everybody's looking for some kind of a deadline date," Hancock said Thursday. "And I do think it has to be the end of the year. But that's not set in stone."

[Hagbard Celine 10871]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32553745/college-football-playoff-expansion-talks-tabled-dec-1-consensus-needed-january-2024-format

chromdome dinich is not hot...

College Football Playoff expansion talks have been tabled again until Dec. 1, but the CFP's management committee needs to make a decision on eight or 12 teams by January if the format is going to expand in time for the 2024 season, CFP executive director Bill Hancock said on Thursday following an in-person meeting at the DFW Grand Hyatt.

"Everybody's looking for some kind of a deadline date, and I do think it has to be the end of the year," Hancock said. "But that's not in stone. What you don't want to do is rush things. And we're just not going to do that. We're going to take our time and be deliberate, talk to people."

If the management committee, which is comprised of the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, cannot unanimously agree on an expanded format by January, the current four-team system will remain in place through the end of the contract, which runs through the 2025 season. Any changes to the playoff after that "can be decided at any point," Hancock said, "and that's not really under discussion now."

"What they're talking about now is Years 11 and 12" of the current 12-year contract, Hancock said.

Hancock said the deadline is January because the CFP has to identify the dates of the games, and determine logistics like lodging, convention centers and stadiums -- in addition to determining the cities for the early rounds and the championship game.

This year's national title game is Jan. 10 in Indianapolis, followed by Jan. 9, 2023 in Los Angeles, and Jan. 8, 2024 in Houston. The championship sites haven't been announced for the '24-'25 or '25-'26 seasons.

"I feel like we need to get it finished by January in fairness to the championship game hosts and the bowls," Hancock said.

Hancock was the only person made available to reporters Wednesday. He said he doesn't expect the CFP's board of managers, which is comprised of the 11 presidents and chancellors with the ultimate authority to change the format, to attend the Dec. 1 meeting. Hancock declined to say how much support there is for eight teams versus 12.

"I don't think anybody's keeping score," he said. "But there are some people who would prefer eight, and there are some people who would prefer 12. And I think everybody understands that the alternative is four."

The management committee agreed they would like a portion of any revenue to somehow benefit student-athletes, Hancock said, along with exploring a full range of media opportunities with multiple broadcast partners. No ESPN television executives or bowl representatives were part of the conversation, Hancock said.

"There's a consensus that expansion of the CFP would be good for college football," Hancock said, "It's just a matter of how."

[LTtxfan 49254]

 

[ztejas 43477]

It won't be approved in December and it will be Texas' fault. 

[bullet 1597]

The general thinking was that they needed to change during a 3 year cycle since the bowls all rotate.  So that would mean changing for the 2023 season (1-1-2024 bowls) or waiting until the 2026 season when the contract is up.  Hancock is saying the earliest would be the 2024 season (1-1-2025 bowls).  Its difficult if not on a 3 year cycle.  They have awarded the 2023 season title game to Houston, but I don't know how that restricts things.

[LTtxfan 49254]

Commissioners not concerned about lopsided College Football Playoff semifinals as expansion discussion continues

Jan 4, 2022    Heather Dinich  ESPN Senior Writer

Quote

As the leaders of the College Football Playoff prepare for another in-person meeting on Saturday in Indianapolis to discuss expanding the current four-team system, the lopsided semifinal scores that resulted in two SEC teams playing for the national title -- again -- might not resonate as much with the commissioners as they have with fans and critics over the past week.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey obviously doesn't have any objections, but it will be a backdrop to the discussions as the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick continue to debate what future model is best for the sport.

"I think college football is better served by having a broader participation in national championship games, but the fact is, you've got to go beat those people," Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told ESPN on Tuesday. "And that means you've got to go do it on the football field. That doesn't have anything to do with the format; that has to do with who's playing at the highest levels."

For the second time in the eight years of the CFP era, it's No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia. They also faced each other in the 2018 national title game and this season in the SEC championship game. Alabama defeated Cincinnati 27-6 in the CFP semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Georgia defeated Michigan 34-11 in the CFP semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl.

Five of the past eight seasons in the CFP have featured semifinals with average margins of victory of at least 22 points. This year's margin of victory of 44 total points was the closest of any of the New Year's Eve semifinals (58 points in 2015 and 48 points in 2016).

"I don't think it should really matter," American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco told ESPN. "I think we're talking about a playoff that would be essentially more inclusive, give more teams an opportunity, and if you gave more teams an opportunity, you know, a few of those teams might perform at a level better than the teams that you choose."

The bigger topic of discussion remains what the format should be, as there is still some support for an eight-team model, but the majority in the room favor a 12-team field. One issue at the heart of the debate is whether there should be automatic qualifiers for the Power 5 champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, or whether the bids should go to the six highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next six highest-ranked teams, as was suggested in the initial proposal released on June 10.

Because there remain differing opinions, several commissioners involved in the discussions told ESPN on Tuesday that they have serious doubts about whether they can agree to expand the playoff at this time.

"My expectation is that we'll continue discussions, and people will say in the room what they said publicly, which will reiterate the fact that we don't have 11 people agreeing on any format," Pac-12 commissioner Georg Kliavkoff said. "And unfortunately, that means that we now need to focus on what the model could look like after the current term and hopefully make it retroactive so that we can expand within the current term."

Bowlsby said he would be "very pleasantly surprised" if they come to any conclusions "because I don't think there's much spirit of doing what's best for the game."

"I think people are protecting their territory," he said, "and ... we need to go into the meeting trying to think about what's good, the best for college football, not what's best for any particular league."

Sankey has publicly stated multiple times his conference would favor a continuation of the current four-team format, an eight-team field that rewards the eight best teams or the original 12-team proposal. He said Tuesday that he believes the CFP's management committee can come to a resolution this weekend.

"I showed up in early December prepared to make a decision," he said. "Others were not. I can speak for myself and I can speak for this conference: We're prepared to make a decision. The question is, are others ready to make a decision?

"I'm not the expert on timing, but at some point, the can has too many dents from being kicked down the road and won't be quite as accessible for kicking," he said. "The reality is, if we don't make a decision now, the same issues being identified are going to be present, whether it's 12, 18 or 24 months from now when we approach the conclusion of a 12-year cycle ... and we're going to have to come to grips with decision-making in the future. ... We're ready to engage right now in that decision-making process."

 

[atomheartbevo 89732]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

The bigger topic of discussion remains what the format should be, as there is still some support for an eight-team model, but the majority in the room favor a 12-team field. One issue at the heart of the debate is whether there should be automatic qualifiers for the Power 5 champions and the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion, or whether the bids should go to the six highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next six highest-ranked teams, as was suggested in the initial proposal released on June 10.

The bigger bigger topic of discussion is how much money they think they will make. Lots of data crunching on scenarios that will generate the most eyeballs across the country, in the largest markets (even if those markets aren't normally CFB markets).