CFP expansion discussion

LonghornSean · February 18

On 2/13/2024 at 2:19 PM, Mitch Cumsteen said:

ESPN locking up the playoffs thru 2032

I wonder how this impacts the negotiation on the number of at-large bids.

Or maybe not

thunderlounge · February 19

Coming soon, to a selection committee near you...

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selection-committee/roster/gary-pinkel/52

Quote

Gary Pinkel served as the head coach at the University of Toledo from 1991-2000 and the University of Missouri from 2001-15, compiling a career record of 191-110-3. Pinkel, who was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2022, has the most wins of any head coach in the history of both the Toledo Rockets and Missouri Tigers football programs, making him one of only three coaches to hold the distinction at two Division I programs. At his retirement, he stood 20th on the Football Bowl Subdivision all-time wins list.

In his 10 seasons as Toledo’s head coach, Pinkel posted a 65.9 winning percentage, amassing a 73-37-3 record and leading the Rockets to the 1995 MAC Championship. He was named the MAC Coach of the Year in 1995 and 1997. At Missouri, Pinkel led the Tigers to 10 bowl games in 15 years. In 2007, he led his team to a 11-1 regular-season record en route to a No. 1 Associated Press ranking. The Tigers lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship but went on to defeat Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl Classic to cap the season and finished ranked No. 4 in the final AP Poll. He took Missouri back to the 2014 Cotton Bowl, where the Tigers defeated Oklahoma State and finished the year ranked No. 5 in the final AP Poll.

During his playing days, Pinkel was a tight end at Kent State before beginning his coaching career at his alma mater in 1974 as a graduate assistant under Hall of Fame coach Don James. He then spent one year at Washington and two seasons at Bowling Green before returning to Washington, where he again served as an assistant under James from 1979-90, the last six years as offensive coordinator. Pinkel received his bachelor's degree from Kent State.

Dnaguy · February 19

17 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

Coming soon, to a selection committee near you...

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selection-committee/roster/gary-pinkel/52

dcar00 · February 20

So Top 4 ranked conf champs get first round bye? really? that sounds not optimal.

BurntOrange&White · February 20

32 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

So Top 4 ranked conf champs get first round bye? really? that sounds not optimal.

It's why byes are the dumbest shit in all of this. They should have went 8 or 16 to prevent byes.

Huckleberry · February 20

Nothing wrong with byes and it was the best (only) way to make winning the conference championship game important. The conferences still make a lot of money on those so they don't want them to become irrelevant.

GreenspointTexas · February 20

5+7 model is dumb AF. 12 teams was also always dumb AF. Incredibly short sighted too

shoulda stuck at 8

the regular season get more meaningless and devalued by the year. Upsets arent even upsets anymore in cfb because they hardly carry the weight they used to

Juicy · February 20

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

So Top 4 ranked conf champs get first round bye? really? that sounds not optimal.

Yeah, I don't love that. More years than not you are going to give a buy to a team that isn't "deserving" a 9-3 "new" b12 champ shouldn't be getting a bye over a 12-1 SEC/B1G championship game loser.

I imagine this is going to put an end to conference championship games, so conferences can protect their best teams and push them through with a bye.

I guess give it time, but there should only be 2 conference champions that are given byes and then 2 at large for byes.

12-1 UGA and 12-1 Texas next year with 1 loss each against each other, shouldn't have to play an extra game so Utah can have a bye.

GreenspointTexas · February 20

24 minutes ago, Juicy said:

Yeah, I don't love that. More years than not you are going to give a buy to a team that isn't "deserving" a 9-3 "new" b12 champ shouldn't be getting a bye over a 12-1 SEC/B1G championship game loser.

I imagine this is going to put an end to conference championship games, so conferences can protect their best teams and push them through with a bye.

I guess give it time, but there should only be 2 conference champions that are given byes and then 2 at large for byes.

12-1 UGA and 12-1 Texas next year with 1 loss each against each other, shouldn't have to play an extra game so Utah can have a bye.

Correct. Which is why i always thought it was dumb AF when people said “conference winners should get aUtO bIdS!!!!!!”

hook me · February 20

25 minutes ago, Juicy said:

Yeah, I don't love that. More years than not you are going to give a buy to a team that isn't "deserving" a 9-3 "new" b12 champ shouldn't be getting a bye over a 12-1 SEC/B1G championship game loser.

I imagine this is going to put an end to conference championship games, so conferences can protect their best teams and push them through with a bye.

I guess give it time, but there should only be 2 conference champions that are given byes and then 2 at large for byes.

12-1 UGA and 12-1 Texas next year with 1 loss each against each other, shouldn't have to play an extra game so Utah can have a bye.

It's not as if they won't have an off week though. The SEC championship is 12/7, the first round is 12/20 & would be a home game for 12-1 UT or 12-1 UGA. So you still get a bye week, you get a home game, & you get a week and a half to prep for a neutral game site against the 3 or 4 seed. That's not an awful setup considering the top seeds will go almost a month without playing and almost certainly be rusty like we often see now in NYE/NYD games. A bye is great, but having 3-1/2 weeks off isn't ideal in this scenario imo. unless you're going to get someone back from injury that wouldn't be ready in the 16 day window before the first round.

statsman · February 20

How do we expect the financial discussions to go? Conferences with more teams in the CFP get more money, right? What’s the best distribution model for Texas and the SEC?

Edited February 20 by statsman

Helobious · February 20

Is there evidence of byes/extended rest in the postseason being beneficial in any sport? Seems to be the opposite somewhat

Horn of Gabriel · February 20

I predict the SEC/B1G push for a 3+3+3+3 model. 3 auto bids each for the top 3 B1G and SEC teams. 3 auto bids for the next 3 top rated conf champions, typically Big12, ACC, and a G5. And then 3 at-large bids for the next 3 highest ranked that don't fit one of those first 3 (could be another SEC/B1G, ND, Big12, ACC, G5 whoever).

That model gives a floor of at least 3 spots to the P2 conferences, with upside to get 4 or even 5 in the playoff in a hot year. It retains access for the Big12, ACC and G5 to get at least 1 and possibly more, and ND can still enter if they're top 12. They'll also do a rev split model like the NCAA MBB tournament where the most money goes to the most bids and who goes the furthest into the playoff. Bottom line, most years the B1G and SEC will walk away with 70% of the revenue from the playoff.

Does anyone know on the NCAA MBB tournament how the rev split works today exactly? If Texas makes the final 4 they make more than if they get to the sweet 16 but do they keep all of it or is there a % to the conference? I assume the conference takes some and the school takes some?

dcar00 · February 20

1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Correct. Which is why i always thought it was dumb AF when people said “conference winners should get aUtO bIdS!!!!!!”

they should get auto bids but not an auto top 4.

'stache · February 21

6 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Nothing wrong with byes and it was the best (only) way to make winning the conference championship game important. The conferences still make a lot of money on those so they don't want them to become irrelevant.

If they went to 16 wouldn’t that be an extra game with tons of revenue for those at the top? Award a conference trophy based on standings and tiebreakers. The first time a SEC/BIG runner up loses a first round game on the road it’ll change the system.

Dnaguy · February 21

4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Correct. Which is why i always thought it was dumb AF when people said “conference winners should get aUtO bIdS!!!!!!”

Ok so the 5 highest ranked regular season champs get auto bids.

Then any of the conf champs that weren’t also the reg season champs get auto bids.

Of those, the highest 4 ranked teams at the conclusion of the conf champs get byes.

Whatever spots left are wildcards…. Until the next contract where we go to 16… then 20… then 24….. etc, etc

/CFP

Edited February 21 by Dnaguy

Huckleberry · February 21

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

If they went to 16 wouldn’t that be an extra game with tons of revenue for those at the top? Award a conference trophy based on standings and tiebreakers. The first time a SEC/BIG runner up loses a first round game on the road it’ll change the system.

A top team from those conferences that loses their title game will play the first round at home.

'stache · February 21

7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

A top team from those conferences that loses their title game will play the first round at home.

I guess you're right, it so confusing. So only 5-12 are playing at homesites. So I expect that the first SEC/BIG runner up that loses their second round game to a lower ranked conference champ will ask to redo the system blaming the advantage given to the lower ranked team from the bye week. Someone said it earlier, and the NFL seems to have proven that first round bye's aren't that much of a difference maker statistically speaking.

markstanco · February 21

I guess you're right, it so confusing. So only 5-12 are playing at homesites. So I expect that the first SEC/BIG runner up that loses their second round game to a lower ranked conference champ will ask to redo the system blaming the advantage given to the lower ranked team from the bye week. Someone said it earlier, and the NFL seems to have proven that first round bye's aren't that much of a difference maker statistically speaking.

Maybe I’m not following properly.

So the conference championship loser wins the first game in the playoffs and loses the 2nd game has a complaint? Totally not being combative.

'stache · February 21

26 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Maybe I’m not following properly.

So the conference championship loser wins the first game in the playoffs and loses the 2nd game has a complaint? Totally not being combative.

Let's say #3 UGA loses the CCG and is (12-1). And let's say #15 KSU is 9-3 and wins the Big 12, gets a first round bye, and plays UGA in round two. KSU then defeats UGA.

I suspect UGA will complain that KSU had an undeserved advantage because of the bye. They'll argue it was undeserved because KSU is lower ranked.

Substitute any BIG/SEC team and any XII/ACC team. I suspect it'll happen within the first few years.

Edited February 21 by 'stache

utee94 · February 21

12 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Nothing wrong with byes and it was the best (only) way to make winning the conference championship game important. The conferences still make a lot of money on those so they don't want them to become irrelevant.

Winning the CCG would be kept important for the top 4 by being rewarded with homefield advantage in the first round of an 8-team playoff, which is plenty compelling.

The byes are stupid, 12 teams is stupid and unnecessary.

Horn Under a Bad Sign · February 21

So I got home awhile ago and am hammered beyond belief and reading just this one page with whereas and what have yous and what about this or what if that happened and my brain is about to explode. You all carry on and I'll try to make a salient point later. I swear I had one in my head about 15 minutes ago.

markstanco · February 21

9 hours ago, 'stache said:

Let's say #3 UGA loses the CCG and is (12-1). And let's say #15 KSU is 9-3 and wins the Big 12, gets a first round bye, and plays UGA in round two. KSU then defeats UGA.

I suspect UGA will complain that KSU had an undeserved advantage because of the bye. They'll argue it was undeserved because KSU is lower ranked.

Substitute any BIG/SEC team and any XII/ACC team. I suspect it'll happen within the first few years.

UGA agreed to the format, so too bad. This scenario will absolutely happen down the road.

satyanash · February 21

Huckleberry · February 21

1 hour ago, satyanash said:

That seems logical in some ways but I'm not sure that's how it plays out. A bye can't possibly be worse odds than a scrub. And there is zero injury risk. And your second round opponent isn't necessarily better than the #4 seed. You're playing the 8/9 winner.

I think in the long run it will be about the same either way but if you win your conference then you're a conference champion. And contrary to what Mack Brown apparently convinced some people around here of, that does matter.

The Dog · February 21

1 hour ago, satyanash said:

Playing an extra game isn't a better deal.

Js1 · February 21

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Playing an extra game isn't a better deal.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when people think having a bye is bad?

Tex Long · February 21

30 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when people think having a bye is bad?

It's bad for they guy who doesn't get a bye, isn't it?

hook me · February 21

45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when people think having a bye is bad?

I don't think the bye is a bad thing, but I don't think it's going to be as big of an advantage in this set up as it is in the NFL. Those without a bye will be playing 1 game in a 3 week period, including 10ish days before the quarter finals which will be played at a neutral site. I'd rather have the bye than not, but as long as you're getting the home field advantage over the ACC/BIG 12 runner up or the Champion of whatever non-P4 makes it then it's no big deal. Ian Boyd's take is idiotic, as usual, because there's no guarantee of an easy matchup & there's no guarantee of the Selection committee slotting you 5th instead of 6, 7, or 8. I'd much rather have the bye than have to play an extra game against an Ole Miss, PSU, or Mizzou.

Evil Bill Obrien · February 21

20 hours ago, Helobious said:

Is there evidence of byes/extended rest in the postseason being beneficial in any sport? Seems to be the opposite somewhat

Would take having to play 1 less game (or series in baseball if we talking top division winners vs wildcard participants) to win a championship 11 times out of 10, "rest vs rust" be damned

Edited February 21 by Evil Bill Obrien

closetojumping · February 21

15 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Would take having to play 1 less game (or series in baseball if we talking top division winners vs wildcard participants) to win a championship 11 times out of 10, "rest vs rust" be damned

You are correct, but there is a really simple way for everyone to look at the subject matter of bye vs. #5 seed:

If Helobious and Ian Boyd are in agreement on something, you should be all-in on the opposing position.

Vertigo · February 21

4 hours ago, satyanash said:

On the flip side, I could just as likely see a push to have home games at say Cincinnati or Troy or any other 35,000 seat stadium moved to the nearest neutral site location that can house a much larger number of fans. Thus negating any real home field advantage because a lot more of the opposing fans will show up. It shouldn't happen, but it could.

Helobious · February 21

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills when people think having a bye is bad?

Having a bye is a straight-up disadvantage when it comes to baseball. Harder to find the numbers on the NFL playoffs. I’d take the “not having my season long routine fucked with option” everytime.

closetojumping · February 21

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Having a bye is a straight-up disadvantage when it comes to baseball. Harder to find the numbers on the NFL playoffs. I’d take the “not having my season long routine fucked with option” everytime.

1) That isn't even close to being statistically relevant. Your idiotic certitude is unwarranted.

2) Why is there a comparison between these two sports on this subject matter? MLB teams play 6 out of every 7 days. CFB plays once a week, at most, and is fundamentally brutal sport, something entirely germane to the topic of the value of byes.

Anyone continuing the MLB comparison should be taken out back and unceremoniously flogged with reeds. If that's too much, they should be forced to receive a lapdance from a stripped down Helobious at a minimum.

Texas Wahoo · February 21

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

That seems logical in some ways but I'm not sure that's how it plays out. A bye can't possibly be worse odds than a scrub. And there is zero injury risk. And your second round opponent isn't necessarily better than the #4 seed. You're playing the 8/9 winner.

I think in the long run it will be about the same either way but if you win your conference then you're a conference champion. And contrary to what Mack Brown apparently convinced some people around here of, that does matter.

It doesn't seem like it would have been better last year. Would you rather play Liberty and then Bama or have a bye before playing the winner of Oregon/Mizzou?

Huckleberry · February 21

6 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It doesn't seem like it would have been better last year. Would you rather play Liberty and then Bama or have a bye before playing the winner of Oregon/Mizzou?

Thanks, that certainly supports what my instinct was.

jdhorn92 · February 21

24 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

24 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It doesn't seem like it would have been better last year. Would you rather play Liberty and then Bama or have a bye before playing the winner of Oregon/Mizzou?

I think playing one game vs two, with a shot at the FF is better. Getting in top 4 will be the goal. Thin the heard a bit. Playing a home playoff game would be great if it happens, but being on the couch, watching your next opponent grind it out is a nice feeling imo. There wont be much difference in 8 or 9 opponent. A strong #4 conf champ is hoping for an upset and drawing #12 neutral site.

Edited February 21 by jdhorn92

Dnaguy · February 21

22 hours ago, statsman said:

How do we expect the financial discussions to go? Conferences with more teams in the CFP get more money, right? What’s the best distribution model for Texas and the SEC?

hook me · February 21

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

1) That isn't even close to being statistically relevant. Your idiotic certitude is unwarranted.

2) Why is there a comparison between these two sports on this subject matter? MLB teams play 6 out of every 7 days. CFB plays once a week, at most, and is fundamentally brutal sport, something entirely germane to the topic of the value of byes.

Anyone continuing the MLB comparison should be taken out back and unceremoniously flogged with reeds. If that's too much, they should be forced to receive a lapdance from a stripped down Helobious at a minimum.

satyanash · February 22

More playoff expansion on the table in 2026...

Ignatius · February 22

20 hours ago, 'stache said:

Let's say #3 UGA loses the CCG and is (12-1). And let's say #15 KSU is 9-3 and wins the Big 12, gets a first round bye, and plays UGA in round two. KSU then defeats UGA.

I suspect UGA will complain that KSU had an undeserved advantage because of the bye. They'll argue it was undeserved because KSU is lower ranked.

Substitute any BIG/SEC team and any XII/ACC team. I suspect it'll happen within the first few years.

To NeverMarry’s point above, in this scenario Georgia would have had a week off after the B12 title game, so the argument is ‘they got 2 weeks off and we only got 1’. I don’t think they get much sympathy, plus if you want the bye, win the fucking CCG…

'stache · February 22

It’ll be interesting to see it play out. Another scenario I could see being suggested is first round bye for the 4 highest ranked champs but reseed the second round based on committee rankings.

CashMcCoy · February 22

56 minutes ago, satyanash said:

More playoff expansion on the table in 2026...

14 is interesting assuming only the top two seeds get byes. Seems like the Big 12 and ACC would have to consider if a guaranteed bye for their champion is more beneficial than a higher probability of getting an additional team in the field.

GreenspointTexas · February 22

Jesus christ, 14? Lotta 3 loss teams in that bitch

DanTheHorn · February 22

12 hours ago, satyanash said:

Where does it say that the top conference champs get the top 4 seeds? Could they get the bye but not be seeded one through 4 ?

Edited February 22 by DanTheHorn

Zeus · February 22

8 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It doesn't seem like it would have been better last year. Would you rather play Liberty and then Bama or have a bye before playing the winner of Oregon/Mizzou?

Fuck Georgia

Juicy · February 22

I know it is just projections, but I don't think it is outrageous to think that Oregon, Texas, Michigan and Bama have a good chance to all be better than Clemson or Utah next year. Obviously you want the bye, but the 5 seed has a really good chance to make the semis every year by beating the g5 team and then the worst conference champ.

(12) Liberty at (5) Oregon
Winner advances to play (4) Utah

(11) Ole Miss at (6) Texas
Winner advances to play (3) Clemson

(10) Notre Dame at (7) Michigan
Winner advances to play (2) Ohio State

(9) Penn State at (8) Alabama
Winner advances to play (1) Georgia

BurntOrange&White · February 22

1 hour ago, Juicy said:

I know it is just projections, but I don't think it is outrageous to think that Oregon, Texas, Michigan and Bama have a good chance to all be better than Clemson or Utah next year. Obviously you want the bye, but the 5 seed has a really good chance to make the semis every year by beating the g5 team and then the worst conference champ.

(12) Liberty at (5) Oregon
Winner advances to play (4) Utah

(11) Ole Miss at (6) Texas
Winner advances to play (3) Clemson

(10) Notre Dame at (7) Michigan
Winner advances to play (2) Ohio State

(9) Penn State at (8) Alabama
Winner advances to play (1) Georgia

I think we'll see some wiggling around of 9-12 rankings, maybe even 5-12, to affect seeding and prevent rematches.

Edited February 22 by BurntOrange&White

formermav43 · February 22

12 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Jesus christ, 14? Lotta 3 loss teams in that bitch

Yeah, 13 and 14 in last year’s rankings were 9-3 LSU and Arizona. No thanks.

Edit: go back a few years and you’ll find 9-4 Stanford in the final rankings of 2017 at 13. Certainly deserving of a playoff spot.

Edited February 22 by formermav43

Juicy · February 22

9 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I think we'll see some wiggling around of 9-12 rankings, maybe even 5-12, to affect seeding and prevent rematches.

ahhh the ole TCU jumps 4 spots with a loss over Ohio State to get the 3 seed move.

Probably. With so many teams, we are going to end up seeing a lot of rematches. In some years you could get 3x Michigan/Ohio State and Texas/UGA Texas/Bama UGA/Bama.

I love that we get more meaningful football. Bowl games have sucked ass recently for the most part, but definitely some dilution of how big games are. Michigan/Ohio State the past two years has been insanely hyped and I loved it. Knowing that they were going to end up playing in back to back weeks would have made those first games pointless.

I know it is 100% impossible because of TV deals, but why even play that first game in the future? Both teams would be holding back, knowing that the CCG is the one that matters. I know it is unlikely to happen too often where you have 11-0 teams playing each other in the final game of the year, but it has happened the past two years (3 if you count the 11-0 vs 10-1 winner take all game in 2021)

Eventually they are going to have to move that game off of the final regular season game, and that will suck.

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