CFP expansion discussion

[Huckleberry 32861]

Yeah that's bullshit. Fuck that proposal. Obviously I'll still watch but it is so anti-competitive.

[statsman 5470]

One thing I won’t be surprised to see: if an 8-4 or 9-3 Big 12 or ACC team plays an 11-1 opponent in the CCG, I bet the lower ranked team wins. These kind of upsets happened already in the past; now with the dynamics of the higher ranked team assured of a playoff spot already (TCU in 2022), they have less incentive to match the fanatical effort of an underdog that can make the playoffs with a bye, with a win. (And the conference officials will be aware of how much it helps to have two teams in the CFP). 

[LTbear 4169]

Why can't we even fucking play the 12 team CFP before the need to do this shit. 

[statsman 5470]

On 3/2/2024 at 7:25 PM, statsman said:

One thing I won’t be surprised to see: if an 8-4 or 9-3 Big 12 or ACC team plays an 11-1 opponent in the CCG, I bet the lower ranked team wins. These kind of upsets happened already in the past; now with the dynamics of the higher ranked team assured of a playoff spot already (TCU in 2022), they have less incentive to match the fanatical effort of an underdog that can make the playoffs with a bye, with a win. (And the conference officials will be aware of how much it helps to have two teams in the CFP). 

In his podcast, Klatt says that the B1G and SEC asked for three assigned slots each, with one assigned each for the B12 and ACC (three at large, inclusive of ND). When the lesser conferences balked, the B1G and SEC proposed the 14 team model, with the B12 and ACC getting two guaranteed slots, and still having three at-large. 
 
In this model, there would only be two byes, for the SEC and B1G champs. This proposal would keep the B1G and SEC CGs valuable, and devalue the B12 and ACC CGs. He speculated that the B12 and ACC might want to have their CGs between their #2 and #3 teams, so that there would be stakes for the winner. 

[PilotsError 2287]

Why would the other conferences agree to any of this shit????

The big 10 and SEC really do think they’re the fucking premiere league. Someone needs to tell them they’re still JV compared to the fucking NFL. 

[statsman 5470]

8 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

Why would the other conferences agree to any of this shit????

The big 10 and SEC really do think they’re the fucking premiere league. Someone needs to tell them they’re still JV compared to the fucking NFL. 

Well, as Klatt explains it, the SEC and B1G could form their own playoff and most of the world would recognize its winner as the NC. 

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

16 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

Why would the other conferences agree to any of this shit????

The big 10 and SEC really do think they’re the fucking premiere league. Someone needs to tell them they’re still JV compared to the fucking NFL. 

You can have a playoff without the Big12.  You can't have one without the SEC or B1G.  That's the leverage.

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

10 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

Why would the other conferences agree to any of this shit????

The big 10 and SEC really do think they’re the fucking premiere league. Someone needs to tell them they’re still JV compared to the fucking NFL. 

To stay included.

They'll make the most money and get the most exposure doing this.  If the SEC and Big 10 went off and did their own thing, I think they would make less money than they currently do, but they'd still make a lot of money.  And I think this playground "you can't sit with us" mentality drives as much of college football's decision making as rational thought.  So even though everyone would probably be worse off in this breakaway scenario, it's still a very realistic/plausible threat and that will motivate the Big 12 and ACC (and G5s) to go along with it.  College football isn't just the power leagues vs everyone else.  There's at least 3 tiers, and maybe 4, of conferences.  The Big 12 and ACC aren't on the same financial footing as the SEC and Big 10, but they're a long ways ahead of the guys behind them.  And there are probably a couple tiers in the G5 with MWC and AAC at the top and CUSA and the MAC at the bottom, and the Sun Belt kind of between.  Eventually I think the top brands in the SEC and Big 10 wonder ask themselves why they continue to subsidize the Purdues and Mississippi States of the world.  I think that is more likely than the current SEC and Big 10 breaking away from everyone else, and likely the next frontier of conference consolidation.

The only part that's objectionable to me is the guaranteed bye for the SEC and Big 10 winners.  Them having more guaranteed bids doesn't really bother me.  And I'd much rather have the Big 12 getting a couple bids to this dance than not.

All this highlights how unfortunate it is that there has never been a central governing body in the sport.  8 9 team geographically aligned conferences/divisions who's champions play in the playoffs would be so much better than what we're going to get.

[bullet 1597]

On 2/23/2024 at 10:57 AM, statsman said:

I don’t think it will be coercion. Here is what I think will happen:

The 12 team CFP will make a lot of money. The non-CFP bowls will make less and less, as they lose significance (it’s ridiculous that they still factor in final rankings). 
 
The CFP will expand to 16, with 11 at large. The SEC and B1G will consistently get ten teams combined in. They will get most of the money. 
 
The networks will ask for an expanded playoff, to 24 or 32 teams. The main beneficiaries would be the ACC and B12, who will be all in favor. I think the SEC and B1G would balk- why expand to add teams that don’t make more money for the P2?

The networks suggest an alternate playoff to the non-P2 world, a playoff where the non-P2 world gets all the money. They accept. 
 
Thats how I think it goes down. Maybe there’s even a final game between the winner of the two playoffs. 

Beyond 16 and you gut the regular season.  4 losses will get you in.  There is a lot of money made by schools on Saturdays.

[bullet 1597]

On 2/22/2024 at 10:17 AM, Huckleberry said:

I'm the same pedant I've always been. If you want to have a playoff then have a playoff. 

And the end game in that is to split them off, not for me to watch Coastal Carolina and New Mexico in the CFP playoff.

Only a little more than half of the G5 has even been in FBS for 30 years.  They really don't belong.  And other than Boise (6 times from 2004-2011), only 5 G5 teams have made the top 12 or even top 14.

[bullet 1597]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:06 PM, Al_4_ISU said:

The Big 10 and SEC would all but be guaranteed 2-3 bids here.  Codify it, I guess, but that’s not an at large.

If the past decade has taught us anything it’s that the committee values brand Uber alles.  If the Big 10 or SEC failed to get multiple bids in this scenario, it’s because the leagues were truly putrid that year.

But now that we have 12 it’s never going to 8.  That’s just a thought experiment on what I think the best product looks like.

No.  Giving the SEC and Big 10 more access is a Scarlet letter on every ACC and Big 12 team.  It will be used against them in recruiting by the Purdues  and Mississippi States.

Plus, it damages the CCGs which are big money makers.

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

10 hours ago, bullet said:

No.  Giving the SEC and Big 10 more access is a Scarlet letter on every ACC and Big 12 team.  It will be used against them in recruiting by the Purdues  and Mississippi States.

Plus, it damages the CCGs which are big money makers.

Almost everyone in the Big 12 and ACC will have a far better chance of making the playoff than Purdue or Mississippi State ever will, even in such an arrangement.

I think the bottom half SEC and Big 10 schools are quietly becoming major losers in all of this.  Yes, they'll get big checks and get to brag about being in the wealthy conference, but they're just well-compensated versions of the Washington Generals going forward.  Until maybe one day they aren't.  With this unstoppable greed train, it seems impossible that Ohio State and Michigan will never tire of floating the Purdues of the world.

[Macklemore 2872]

12 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Almost everyone in the Big 12 and ACC will have a far better chance of making the playoff than Purdue or Mississippi State ever will, even in such an arrangement.

I think the bottom half SEC and Big 10 schools are quietly becoming major losers in all of this.  Yes, they'll get big checks and get to brag about being in the wealthy conference, but they're just well-compensated versions of the Washington Generals going forward.  Until maybe one day they aren't.  With this unstoppable greed train, it seems impossible that Ohio State and Michigan will never tire of floating the Purdues of the world.

The B1G and SEC still need bottom feeder programs to prop up their top tier teams. Also, other than with Temple in the Big East and except for conferences imploding, I can’t recall a team getting relegated. The Vanderbilts and Northwesterns are safe.

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

20 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

The B1G and SEC still need bottom feeder programs to prop up their top tier teams. Also, other than with Temple in the Big East and except for conferences imploding, I can’t recall a team getting relegated. The Vanderbilts and Northwesterns are safe.

Washington State and Oregon State just got relegated.

It comes down to money.  If TV wants a super exclusive super league, it’s going to happen.

2/3rds of the Big 10 and half the SEC are Big 12 and ACC level programs getting subsidized by the blue bloods.  They are “leaches” much like the I8 have been called time and time again on this board.  If they aren’t relegated they’ll be forced to take a lesser share, which will narrow the gap between them and the B12/ACC.  In this era of insatiable greed, one of these outcomes seems inevitable.

[Josef Pwag 1738]

47 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

The Vanderbilts and Northwesterns are safe.

If you went on a board like this 10 years ago and said the Pac would dissolve, Oregon would be in the B1G, Texas would be in the SEC and players would have unlimited NIL $, you would have been laughed off the internet. 

No one is safe.  

[SimkinsMan 4387]

10 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

If you went on a board like this 10 years ago and said the Pac would dissolve, Oregon would be in the B1G, Texas would be in the SEC and players would have unlimited NIL $, you would have been laughed off the internet. 

No one is safe.  

I'm pretty sure the Aggy trophy cabinet is safe from clutter, though.

[Josef Pwag 1738]

1 hour ago, SimkinsMan said:

I'm pretty sure the Aggy trophy cabinet is safe from clutter, though.

You don't know fuck about shit.

https://today.tamu.edu/2022/11/18/texas-am-meat-judging-team-wins-national-title/

 

[bullet 1597]

https://sports.yahoo.com/will-sec-big-ten-greed-ruin-college-sports-as-we-know-it-202735432.html

 

Dan Wetzel suggests the Big 10 and SEC extreme demands may well be an effort to destabilize the Big 12 and ACC and lead to more raids.

"...If the Big Ten and SEC are able to set a playoff up in direct contrast to how college sports have always operated — codifying more guaranteed access, more guaranteed on-field competitive advantages (including a bye) and more guaranteed money — then the operation may be passing the point of no return.

This isn’t just about hoarding power — although that’s part of it. It’s about eliminating other teams and leagues from being able to compete on the field, therefore further destabilizing other conferences. We just saw the century-plus-old Pac-12 perish for no particularly good reason. The ACC and Big 12 might be next.

“Automatic first-round byes for the Big Ten and SEC is like the NFL saying the [Dallas] Cowboys get a first-round bye since they have more fans than the [Cincinnati] Bengals,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes noted. “How preposterous is that?”

So preposterous that the cutthroat, bottomline, chase-every-nickle NFL wouldn’t even try it. And Dykes' point extends to uneven revenue sharing and multiple automatic bids.

It’s particularly preposterous because based on the competitive strength and historic success of Big Ten and SEC teams, they would likely be able to earn those bids, byes and even money via competition. If so, good for them.

By putting it in writing though, this becomes a play to break apart other conferences and pick off a few more of the most valuable brands...."

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

4 hours ago, bullet said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/will-sec-big-ten-greed-ruin-college-sports-as-we-know-it-202735432.html

 

Dan Wetzel suggests the Big 10 and SEC extreme demands may well be an effort to destabilize the Big 12 and ACC and lead to more raids.

"...If the Big Ten and SEC are able to set a playoff up in direct contrast to how college sports have always operated — codifying more guaranteed access, more guaranteed on-field competitive advantages (including a bye) and more guaranteed money — then the operation may be passing the point of no return.

This isn’t just about hoarding power — although that’s part of it. It’s about eliminating other teams and leagues from being able to compete on the field, therefore further destabilizing other conferences. We just saw the century-plus-old Pac-12 perish for no particularly good reason. The ACC and Big 12 might be next.

“Automatic first-round byes for the Big Ten and SEC is like the NFL saying the [Dallas] Cowboys get a first-round bye since they have more fans than the [Cincinnati] Bengals,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes noted. “How preposterous is that?”

So preposterous that the cutthroat, bottomline, chase-every-nickle NFL wouldn’t even try it. And Dykes' point extends to uneven revenue sharing and multiple automatic bids.

It’s particularly preposterous because based on the competitive strength and historic success of Big Ten and SEC teams, they would likely be able to earn those bids, byes and even money via competition. If so, good for them.

By putting it in writing though, this becomes a play to break apart other conferences and pick off a few more of the most valuable brands...."

Ah yes - This is all a ploy by the SEC and Big Ten to destabilize the Big 12 enough that they can pick off all of the Big 12 schools that they have long wanted but never could dream of pulling away...  Or maybe it's all a ploy to get FSU, a team that desperately wants to leave the ACC to... leave the ACC.

[thunderlounge 7832]

9 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Or maybe it's all a ploy to get FSU, a team that desperately wants to leave the ACC to... leave the ACC.

Not sure I follow. 
 

In the ACC (or b12 for that matter), having 2 guaranteed spots seems bad at face value, but for the teams that matter, it really isn’t as their competition for those 2 spots gives them a better shot than the competition would for 3 spots.

This is taking the pay increase out of the equation, and just referencing CFP spots/path.

 

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

26 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

Not sure I follow. 
 

In the ACC (or b12 for that matter), having 2 guaranteed spots seems bad at face value, but for the teams that matter, it really isn’t as their competition for those 2 spots gives them a better shot than the competition would for 3 spots.

This is taking the pay increase out of the equation, and just referencing CFP spots/path.

 

I was just making fun of Wetzel suggesting that the Big Ten and SEC are doing this in order to destabilize the membership of the Big 12 and ACC when they could have any of of those schools if they really wanted to without worrying about destabilizing the conferences first.

[thunderlounge 7832]

1 hour ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I was just making fun of Wetzel suggesting that the Big Ten and SEC are doing this in order to destabilize the membership of the Big 12 and ACC when they could have any of of those schools if they really wanted to without worrying about destabilizing the conferences first.

 

Ah, got ya. So yeah, fuck that guy. 

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

4 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I was just making fun of Wetzel suggesting that the Big Ten and SEC are doing this in order to destabilize the membership of the Big 12 and ACC when they could have any of of those schools if they really wanted to without worrying about destabilizing the conferences first.

Yeah exactly.  If the Big 10 and SEC wanted any more of those schools they could take them any day.

[SquishMitten 10408]

On 3/13/2024 at 1:49 AM, Texas Wahoo said:

Ah yes - This is all a ploy by the SEC and Big Ten to destabilize the Big 12 enough that they can pick off all of the Big 12 schools that they have long wanted but never could dream of pulling away...  Or maybe it's all a ploy to get FSU, a team that desperately wants to leave the ACC to... leave the ACC.

Yeah, that seems like a bad take. At some point, and we’re probably already there if not super close, the B1G and SEC adding more teams starts to devalue the current conference members. What other teams out there would add enough to a contract that every member would get more money than they do now? There’s not many.

[thunderlounge 7832]

Which is one reason the b1g gave half shares to oregon and wash.

Is there a team in the acc or b12 that would turn down a half share to join the b1g/sec?

Not saying it would happen, but simply commenting on how the math works out.

[Dnaguy 11964]

Looks like the expanded CFP contract is final.
Some take aways

B1G and SEC schools get 21 mil

ACC schools 13

Big12 gets 12 per

Notre Dame 12 

1.3 BIL total / year

AND that’s prorated up if playoffs expanded from 12 to 14.

Also interesting that ESPN can subcontract out some of the playoff games to NBC / CBS / Fox too. I wonder if that’s going to happen.

Oh and the championship games is moving to ABC 

 

https://theathletic.com/5354221/2024/03/19/espn-college-football-playoff-tv-contract/
 

Quote

ESPN and the College Football Playoff on Tuesday announced a finalized agreement granting the network exclusive rights through the 2031-32 season. Financial terms were not disclosed, but The Athletic has previously reported the deal is a six-year extension worth an average of $1.3 billion annually.

Two seasons remain on ESPN’s original 12-year deal for the New Year’s Six bowls (two of them CFP semifinals) and national championship game. As part of the deal, ESPN adds the four new first-round games involved in the expanded 12-team format that begins this season. The six-year extension begins in 2026-27.

 

ESPN, which to this point has aired all CFP games on its flagship cable network, said it will move the national championship game to ABC beginning in 2026-27. The company also has the option to sublicense “a select number of games” to other networks beginning this season, potentially allowing the likes of Fox, NBC and CBS to become part of the CFP lineup. The parties have a commitment to air a minimum of one game per round on an over-the-air network beginning in 2026-27, a source briefed on the discussions told The Athletic.

The $1.3 billion annual average marks an increase from the $608 million average in ESPN’s original seven-game deal that began in 2014-15. In the 12-team format beginning this season, four of those bowls become quarterfinal Playoff games, with two other bowls hosting the semifinals on a rotation.

Network executives previously told The Athleticthe deal will remain at the same dollar figure even if the CFP opts to expand the field from 12 to 14 teams. The CFP met with numerous potential media partners during recent negotiations, but no other network made a bid for any games.

“We look forward to enhancing our valued relationship (with the CFP) over the next two years, and then continuing it for six more as we embark on this new, expanded playoff era,” ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro said in a statement.

The terms of the ESPN deal have been set for some time, according to executives, but the conferences had delayed approving it due to a lack of clarity over the future structure of the event. Finally last Friday, the nine continuing FBS conferences and Notre Dame signed off on a basic framework that includes uneven revenue distribution among the major conferences. Multiple sources briefed on the model confirmed the Big Ten and SEC will receive more than $21 million per school, the ACC around $13 million each and the Big 12 around $12 million each, with around $1.8 million for the Group of 5 conferences collectively. The remainder goes to independents, including more than $12 million for Notre Dame, and the Football Championship Subdivision.

 

The CFP’s internal contract includes a look-in clause in 2028, allowing the parties to potentially reshape the agreement based on performance or further conference realignment, according to multiple people familiar with the negotiations

 

Edited March 20 by Dnaguy

[statsman 5470]

The Big 12 made out like a bandit, considering its member schools are 1-2 (TCU and Cincinnati) in Bowl Alliance championships, BCS CGs, and CFP games. 

Edited March 20 by statsman

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

4 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Looks like the expanded CFP contract is final.
Some take aways

B1G and SEC schools get 21 mil

ACC schools 13

Big12 gets 12 per

Notre Dame 12 

1.3 BIL total / year

AND that’s prorated up if playoffs expanded from 12 to 14.

Also interesting that ESPN can subcontract out some of the playoff games to NBC / CBS / Fox too. I wonder if that’s going to happen.

Oh and the championship games is moving to ABC 

 

https://theathletic.com/5354221/2024/03/19/espn-college-football-playoff-tv-contract/
 

 

 

 

[Asu2215 247]

On 3/12/2024 at 10:55 AM, Josef Pwag said:

You don't know fuck about shit.

https://today.tamu.edu/2022/11/18/texas-am-meat-judging-team-wins-national-title/

 

That's a long one...

8,6,5,12,10,9,1,3,2,4,x,x

[LonghornSean 3998]

 

[hornbri 1398]

2 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

 

I assume one of those games will be the one up against the NFL game? That way everyone can save face. 

[TxEx84 403]

On 3/20/2024 at 12:26 PM, statsman said:

The Big 12 made out like a bandit, considering its member schools are 1-2 (TCU and Cincinnati) in Bowl Alliance championships, BCS CGs, and CFP games. 

Missed this from a couple of months ago. So Kansas, KSU, ISU, etc. get roughly the same amount as Notre Dame.  That's amazing.

[Al_4_ISU 12463]

12 minutes ago, TxEx84 said:

Missed this from a couple of months ago. So Kansas, KSU, ISU, etc. get roughly the same amount as Notre Dame.  That's amazing.

From the playoff.  ND's making so much god damn money from every other aspect of their existence that I doubt they'll even notice.

[LTtxfan 49187]

On 5/22/2024 at 3:56 PM, LonghornSean said:

 

Schedule for 2024-25 CFP