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Posted (edited)

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/2022-season/
 
2022 ratings:

OU-OSU: 3.06 M

Texas-TCU: 5.03 M

Texas-OSU: 4.46 M

(you actually see decent numbers for non-Texas and non-OU games, as if there is a halo effect)

Ha-ha-ha-ha! Those idiots at ESPN and Fox thought the B12 schools were making part of the contribution to those numbers. Now, they know- when B12 schools play each other, get the streaming ready. 
 
The B12 needs to really enjoy its media contract through 2031; got a feeling there will be an adjustment later. 

Edited by statsman
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Posted
7 hours ago, Hayduke said:

Moving from eighth place in one top-level football conference to a lower level of competition the next year won't drop anyone's budget that dramatically. If your budget is only $70 million one year, you're not competing with the big boys very often anyway, but the fans (and TV) have brought you $70 million despite that. 

The top 20 NCAA programs in valuation all generated $151 million or more in revenue last year, and that low figure of $151 belonged to Oregon (valued at No. 17). 

Over time, that can certainly erode. But enough television money and attendance will remain at the "next 64" level (or whatever it is) to keep schools' budgets relatively stable from one year to the next. Easy enough to bake some revenue-sharing into the system, just like it's there now.

Most revenue goes to the  big two, of course, with the rest of the P5 getting the next level of money.

So the revenue inequalities likely won't change much just because of relegation.

And relegation might be "fantasy" for American football message boards, but it's absolute reality for the rest of "world football" and makes a whole lot more money that CFB does. The Premier League alone generates about twice the revenue of P5 football and the EFL adds more than another billion -- all in one little kingdom.

Works great for soccer because, despite the intellectual inferiority of the rest of the earth to America, they've figured out how to make gazillions at the top level. Yeah, it flows down less and less as it goes. It barely trickles to the virtually amateur Wrexhams of the world, who remain Wrexham only as long as some famous guys don't figure out how to help them compete.

Mississippi State is a SEC cellar dweller and great candidate to examine for relegation.  This article shows that MSUs FY2024 revenue was $127MM against expenses of $134MM (deficit due to a COVID loan repayment). Football created $43.7MM.  This number is ticket sales, sponsorships, concessions, etc.  The SEC TV deal sent MSU $52.5MM, a number expected to grow significantly in coming years.  

Currently MSU fields teams in Men's: Football, Basketball, Baseball, Golf, Tennis and Track and Field, plus Women's Basketball, Cross Country, Soccer, Softball, Tennis, Track and Field, and Volleyball. All sports other than football ran a deficit.  

Let's say MSU gets relegated to the Big12, or something like it.  Last year the Big 12 distributed $470MM to it's member schools.  They did an unequal split for the new members that will equalize in coming years but if you average it, that's $29.4MM per school - and that's before the SEC revenues really kick into high gear when they add another game or play-in tournament for the CFP.  That gap is not going to shrink.

If you take just the football TV revenue alone, MSU would lose $23MM/year.  The reality would be much worse than that, because a moribund MSU fan base is not showing up for a football team that just got relegated and is now hosting a home schedule of Baylor and West Virginia.  Their ticket revenues would crater as well, let's be generous as say that they only dip by 30%, which is half of the dip that Premier League teams take when relegated (even including parachute payments).  That's a loss of another ~$14.5MM.  The original AD budget of $127MM is now down to $89.5MM.  What gets cut? MSU is relatively poor, they don't have a Boone Pickens to make up the gap.  Student fees can only cover so much.  And don't forget Title IX, you can't just cut women's sports.  They'd scrap everything except football, baseball and (maybe) men's BB and the bare minimum women's sports they'd be required to keep. Even then, all those sports would take huge cuts.

Are these solvable problems?  Sure, and soccer shows the way: ADs could negotiate relegation clauses in contracts, the NCAA could figure out the player employment legal jumble and work with the players to create a CBA that would allow for buying/selling player contracts, that same currently non-existent player's union could work with the NCAA to create conditions for transfer so that a relegated team doesn't immediately lose all of its players to the portal, conferences could setup parachute payments, etc.  If there's a will there's a way.  The problem is there is no will.  Nobody is beating down Sankey's or any commissioner's door for relegation/promotion.  In fact, it would be actively opposed by any team in the SEC or B1G today for obvious reasons.

So yeah, relegation is a total and complete fantasy in college football.

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Posted
4 hours ago, statsman said:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/2022-season/
 
2022 ratings:

OU-OSU: 3.06 M

Texas-TCU: 5.03 M

Texas-OSU: 4.46 M

(you actually see decent numbers for non-Texas and non-OU games, as if there is a halo effect)

Ha-ha-ha-ha! Those idiots at ESPN and Fox thought the B12 schools were making part of the contribution to those numbers. Now, they know- when B12 schools play each other, get the streaming ready. 
 
The B12 needs to really enjoy its media contract through 2031; got a feeling there will be an adjustment later. 

Hey they sold themselves to espn.  Pulled a fast one.  Unless espn has an out

Posted
7 hours ago, 'stache said:

Oh damn, a 3-6 team vs a 5-4 team late in the season got put in a shit network and drew shit ratings? No wai. Should probably just shut down the conference lol.

That’s 3-6 team vs 5-4 team in one of the power three conferences to you mister.  This ain’t some acc tilt

  • Haha 1
Posted
5 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Mississippi State is a SEC cellar dweller and great candidate to examine for relegation.  This article shows that MSUs FY2024 revenue was $127MM against expenses of $134MM (deficit due to a COVID loan repayment). Football created $43.7MM.  This number is ticket sales, sponsorships, concessions, etc.  The SEC TV deal sent MSU $52.5MM, a number expected to grow significantly in coming years.  

Currently MSU fields teams in Men's: Football, Basketball, Baseball, Golf, Tennis and Track and Field, plus Women's Basketball, Cross Country, Soccer, Softball, Tennis, Track and Field, and Volleyball. All sports other than football ran a deficit.  

Your post has a number of excellent points, especially your conclusion that there's no will to get things done. But the will -- or the outside pressure -- is coming, largely because we've got a couple of sizable, arguably monopolistic leagues that will need to keep expanding (and sharing) or face blowback.  They'll have to take over the role of the NCAA and spread the wealth better.

Otherwise, a healthy chunk of the country will ask why Mississippi State gets to keep feeding off of the SEC teat, and why a comparatively limited set of mostly public universities are part of a wealthy professional sports league. The public will question whether we produce too many Johntay Cooks but not enough athletes who finish degrees.

Relatively speaking, nobody talks about graduation rates any more. That won't last long. The Washington States and Kansas States don't like the new order. They'll organize. There will be lawsuits.

I haven't paid attention to how serious the effort has become in Georgia to exempt college athletes from income tax on their NIL earnings, but that's not going to sit well with a large part of the Georgia population. That's partly because there's a shiny-new-toy aspect to certain parts of college sports, especially for fans of teams like Texas and the other clear winners of the Big/SEC expansion sweepstakes. It won't last.

Meanwhile, a lot more teams have been left out, and every state is going to start dealing in the next couple of years with the fallout of changing demographics and the enrollment cliff. Schools are going to close and most will shrink to substantial degrees. Publicly funded support for college sports is going to be scrutinized more. People will realize how much of a complicated mess has been made of what we once thought of as amateur, ancillary sports activity for students.

And, as you've pointed out, Title IX and the money-losing nature of the vast majority of college sports, especially at the bloated upper level, are another can of worms altogether. The larger political environment and the earthquakes starting to rumble in D.C. will also be part of this.

Personally, I like the old Big XII, but I might like the old SWC even better if there was a larger playoff system. I hate the loss of regionality. The new SEC/BIG and the NIL era, despite their obvious benefits for the program I love most, has killed much of what I thought would be the appeal of the just-expanded playoff. Feels like a cheat code for Texas.

Relegation is already happening, but it's not organized and not equitable. It may need to be to help college sports keep thriving.

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