CFP expansion discussion

[PilotsError 2,282]

The most annoying people in sports are the bowl apologists who claim to love more football and the "meaningless" bowls.  The ratings are pretty clear none of you watch them.  

 

[formermav43 4,599]

1 hour ago, PilotsError said:

The most annoying people in sports are the bowl apologists who claim to love more football and the "meaningless" bowls.  The ratings are pretty clear none of you watch them.  

 

I’m not sure a board devoted to college football is the best target for that sort of rant.

[WhatTheBuck 28,711]

On 4/28/2021 at 10:07 AM, closetohumping said:

im watching

At home on your couch.

[Longboard Horn 40,143]

Keep the NY6 and add 2 more bowl games like the Holiday and Alamo for example. Winners of those bowls games go into the Elite 8 CFP. Problem solved. Also, this way it could give the little guys(G5) a fair chance.  

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

17 hours ago, PilotsError said:

The most annoying people in sports are the bowl apologists who claim to love more football and the "meaningless" bowls.  The ratings are pretty clear none of you watch them.  

 

I'm not going to list 2020 covid year because sports ratings were down across the board.

I think the bigger issue that is currently plaguing the bowl system is there are too many bowls, the criteria being 6-6 gets you a bowl, and etc. In the same non covid year 2019 there were 40 bowl games. I'd say drop that number down to 28-32 bowl games and require 7 or 8 wins to participate. You'd arguably get better match ups and even higher ratings.

Edited May 4, 2021 by BurntOrange&White

[Steamboat1874 4,032]

45 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I'm not going to list 2020 covid year because sports ratings were down across the board.

I think the bigger issue that is currently plaguing the bowl system is there are too many bowls, the criteria being 6-6 gets you a bowl, and etc. In the same non covid year 2019 there were 40 bowl games. I'd say drop that number down to 28-32 bowl games and require 7 or 8 wins to participate. You'd arguably get better match ups and even higher ratings.

I would counter and say the more college football the better and I don't give a shit what the records are because they are not in a playoff situation and some of those bowl games that have teams with 6-6 records are some of the most entertaining games of the bowl season.

[closetohumping 17,401]

5 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

At home on your couch.

Please don’t burn it.  

[hpslugga 4,044]

17 hours ago, formermav43 said:

I’m not sure a board devoted to college football is the best target for that sort of rant.

It may or may not be, but the point is certainly valid. Those other bowl game are a ratings laughingstock. There were 16 bowl games (roughly 60% of the field) that failed to crack a 2.0 rating (roughly 3.5 million viewers), 9 of which didn't even crack 2 million viewers. More people watch The Wall than that shit. What's particularly embarrassing about that is the fact that the lower bowl games are played in their own individual time slots so as to avoid competing against other bowl games...and that's the best they can do? https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

36 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

I would counter and say the more college football the better and I don't give a shit what the records are because they are not in a playoff situation and some of those bowl games that have teams with 6-6 records are some of the most entertaining games of the bowl season.

I would instantly counter your counter with "that's just you and a comparative handful of people. Most college football fans do not give a shit about those games."

Edited May 4, 2021 by hpslugga

[Horn of Gabriel 1,590]

This doesn't need to be a bowls vs. expansion discussion.  We can have both shitty bowls AND the expanded CFP.  If you love the shitty bowls with 6-6 teams, if they can still survive with their shit teams, games, and business model, and you're willing to watch their shit product, go for it.  The issue is that the bowls have been standing in the way of CFP expansion by throwing money and influence at teams and playing on nostalgia for the old days to keep their post-season shit on life support.  The "moar football" crowd is the clear minority as the rating show, otherwise we'd be watching the XFL in the Spring, because moar football = moar better, right?  Nope, people want quality games and compelling matchups.  Not meaningless "reward" games that are little more than participation medals for 6-6 teams where any player of note has opted out.

[notre dame joe 172]

8 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I'm not going to list 2020 covid year because sports ratings were down across the board.

I think the bigger issue that is currently plaguing the bowl system is there are too many bowls, the criteria being 6-6 gets you a bowl, and etc. In the same non covid year 2019 there were 40 bowl games. I'd say drop that number down to 28-32 bowl games and require 7 or 8 wins to participate. You'd arguably get better match ups and even higher ratings.

We should just call them something like Bowls in Name Only and bar them from the playoff porn.  The choice of whether Fresno State stays home or plays a football game on Dec 21st has absolutely no relevance as to how ESPN determines a national champion, regardless of how the game is branded.

[formermav43 4,599]

5 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

This doesn't need to be a bowls vs. expansion discussion.  We can have both shitty bowls AND the expanded CFP.  If you love the shitty bowls with 6-6 teams, if they can still survive with their shit teams, games, and business model, and you're willing to watch their shit product, go for it.  The issue is that the bowls have been standing in the way of CFP expansion by throwing money and influence at teams and playing on nostalgia for the old days to keep their post-season shit on life support.  The "moar football" crowd is the clear minority as the rating show, otherwise we'd be watching the XFL in the Spring, because moar football = moar better, right?  Nope, people want quality games and compelling matchups.  Not meaningless "reward" games that are little more than participation medals for 6-6 teams where any player of note has opted out.

Quality games and compelling matchups are great. Half the first round games in a 16 team playoff typically won’t offer that. By that criteria, most mid-tier bowls would be better, in fact.

Edited May 4, 2021 by formermav43

[Horn of Gabriel 1,590]

21 hours ago, formermav43 said:

Quality games and compelling matchups are great. Half the first round games in a 16 team playoff typically won’t offer that. By that criteria, most mid-tier bowls would be better, in fact.

Maybe.  We don't really know b/c it doesn't exist yet.  Holding up  #1 Alabama vs. #16 BYU or Cincinnati is probably a blowout but at least it's two ranked teams.  A #7 Florida vs. #8 Oregon would be pretty good.  Regardless at least both games have implications for the round of 8 vs. the bowls which have zero implications beyond a trophy no one cares about.

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

8 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Maybe.  We don't really know b/c it doesn't exist yet.  Holding up  #1 Alabama vs. #16 BYU or Cincinnati is probably a blowout but at least it's two ranked teams.  A #7 Florida vs. #8 Oregon would be pretty good.  Regardless at least both games have implications for the round of 8 vs. the bowls which have zero implications beyond a trophy no one cares about.

 

Found this:

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by BurntOrange&White

[Horn of Gabriel 1,590]

8 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Found this mockup from 2018

 

 

First 4 seeds games would be a bloodbath

Except when they're not...sure Bama and Clemson will curb stomp anyone.  But someone like Fresno State has a history of upsets and OU has a history of choking, so...

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

Just now, Horn of Gabriel said:

Except when they're not...sure Bama and Clemson will curb stomp anyone.  But someone like Fresno State has a history of upsets and OU has a history of choking, so...

exceptions, not the rules brother.

 

 

[Horn of Gabriel 1,590]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

exceptions, not the rules brother.

 

 

I'd still take a 16-team CFP with actual stakes vs. two 6-6 marginal shit teams in a meaningless bowl.

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

Just now, Horn of Gabriel said:

I'd still take a 16-team CFP with actual stakes vs. two 6-6 marginal shit teams in a meaningless bowl.

It's not a one or the other thing and I'm not sure why you're making it that. Have the 8 team playoff AND bowls.

[Horn of Gabriel 1,590]

12 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

It's not a one or the other thing and I'm not sure why you're making it that. Have the 8 team playoff AND bowls.

I'm not, read my OP where I specifically said that it didn't need to be.  I just think the right range is 12- or 16- not 8.  But I'd take 8 over 4.  And the shitty bowls can stick around too, even as they become less and less relevant with opt outs and whatnot.

[camel at sea 589]

4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Found this:

 

 

 

 

1.  Bama (SEC Champ)
2. Clemson (ACC Champ)
3. Ohio State (Big Ten Champ)
4. Washington (PAC 12 champ)
5. Penn State (B1G runner-up)
6. Michigan (B1G 3rd place)
7.  Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
8.  Wisconsin (B1G 4th place team)



9.  Southern Cal (PAC 12 #2)
10.  Colorado (PAC 12 #3)
11.  Florida State (ACC #2)
12.  W. Michigan (MAC?)
13.  Temple (AAC)
14.  SDSU (MWC)
15.  W. Kentucky (CUSA?)
16.  App State (Sun Belt)

So the SEC and Big 12 got one team in each... the Big 10 had 3 schools seeded ahead of the Big 12 champ.  The PAC put three teams in - one of them Colorado?  

It'd be easier to sell a 16 team playoff if the graph reflected reality a little better.  

[ImissWallyPryor 9,045]

Did anyone else click this thread thinking the NCAA was changing the size of the ball?

[ImissWallyPryor 9,045]

I mean, wouldn’t that create problems for Mr. Card?

[markstanco 12,507]

I'd still take a 16-team CFP with actual stakes vs. two 6-6 marginal shit teams in a meaningless bowl.

I dont know personally..... I watch those games too because I know I will have to wait 8 months until the next season.

[hpslugga 4,044]

On 5/4/2021 at 11:08 AM, Horn of Gabriel said:

This doesn't need to be a bowls vs. expansion discussion.  We can have both shitty bowls AND the expanded CFP.  

In theory, yes. In actual practice, that's never going to work, and for the reasons you later state.

Quote

The issue is that the bowls have been standing in the way of CFP expansion by throwing money and influence at teams and playing on nostalgia for the old days to keep their post-season shit on life support.

And let's be clear, it really is just about money and power. These arguments about "the integrity/uniqueness of college football" are a bunch of crap. They're colors and lights, bells and whistles, smoke and mirrors, etc. The next motherfucker that tries to get cute and argue "IT'S UNIQUE" is getting this pic in response, and that's it because that's all they've merited:

Edited May 6, 2021 by hpslugga

[hpslugga 4,044]

9 hours ago, markstanco said:

18 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

I'd still take a 16-team CFP with actual stakes vs. two 6-6 marginal shit teams in a meaningless bowl.

I dont know personally..... I watch those games too because I know I will have to wait 8 months until the next season.

That's like saying "well, the reason I fucked that 60 year old former prostitute with the 23 STD's, the prosthetic leg and the voice box is because I'm about to go to Antarctica for 8 months and won't be getting any pussy until I come back."

Dude, we've got the internet. We have YouTube and the like. I will watch that 2017 CFP final 10,000 times in full with commercials before even contemplating watching 3 minutes of last year's fucking Myrtle Beach Bowl.

Edited May 6, 2021 by hpslugga

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

I think with the 8 or 16 team format for playoff and still having the bowls would be reduce bowls to 25 if there was a 16 team playoff and 30 if there was an 8 team playoff. 

 

The key would be eliminating the conference tie ins to the bowls. Fuck the Rose Bowl for this, in general. Removing those conference tie ins would allow the people who put the bowls together to create better, more exciting match ups for the fans. 

 

That would give us a total of 66-68 playoff and bowl eligible teams which is about half the number of NCAA FBS teams.

 

[markstanco 12,507]

51 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

That's like saying "well, the reason I fucked that 60 year old former prostitute with the 23 STD's, the prosthetic leg and the voice box is because I'm about to go to Antarctica for 8 months and won't be getting any pussy until I come back."

Dude, we've got the internet. We have YouTube and the like. I will watch that 2017 CFP final 10,000 times in full with commercials before even contemplating watching 3 minutes of last year's fucking Myrtle Beach Bowl.

[Horn of Gabriel 1,590]

7 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I think with the 8 or 16 team format for playoff and still having the bowls would be reduce bowls to 25 if there was a 16 team playoff and 30 if there was an 8 team playoff. 

 

The key would be eliminating the conference tie ins to the bowls. Fuck the Rose Bowl for this, in general. Removing those conference tie ins would allow the people who put the bowls together to create better, more exciting match ups for the fans. 

 

That would give us a total of 66-68 playoff and bowl eligible teams which is about half the number of NCAA FBS teams.

 

The B1G is strong right now but the PAC and the Rose Bowl have never been weaker.  Now is the time to strike, with the PAC missing the playoffs for half a decade or whatever it's at now.

[hpslugga 4,044]

16 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

The B1G is strong right now but the PAC and the Rose Bowl have never been weaker.  Now is the time to strike, with the PAC missing the playoffs for half a decade or whatever it's at now.

Yeah they haven't made it since that time Washington got hammered by Bama. ousux is the only team west of the Mississippi River to qualify for the CFP since that 24-7 snoozefest.

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

4 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Yeah they haven't made it since that time Washington got hammered by Bama. ousux is the only team west of the Mississippi River to qualify for the CFP since that 24-7 snoozefest.

The inaugural year Oregon beat a FSU team that played no one all season pretty badly only to get shellacked in the championship game 42-20.

 

Oregon 2014

Washington  2016
 

Since 2016 the highest ranked Pac teams in the final CFB Playoff rankings are:

 

2017 - USC(8)

2018  - Washington(9)

2019 - Oregon(6)

2020 - USC(17)

Edited May 7, 2021 by BurntOrange&White

[hpslugga 4,044]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

The inaugural year Oregon beat a FSU team that played no one all season pretty badly only to get shellacked in the championship game 42-20.

Yep. I remember both those Oregon games quite well. That semi was the game where Jameis Winston slipped backwards and fumbled the living shit out of the ball for a scoop score for the Ducks. If you watch the replay, it looks like the returner and the blocker right next to him were saying to each other "...did that...really just happen?"

[RollLeft 5,040]

On 5/5/2021 at 2:51 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Found this:

 

 

 

 

I'd switch out Sugar for Peach and Cotton for Fiesta.  This gives two west and two east and the finals played in the center of the country.  NOLA/Dallas is better than ATL/Phoenix

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,784]

20 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Yep. I remember both those Oregon games quite well. That semi was the game where Jameis Winston slipped backwards and fumbled the living shit out of the ball for a scoop score for the Ducks. If you watch the replay, it looks like the returner and the blocker right next to him were saying to each other "...did that...really just happen?"

That actually wasn't a bad fsu team, but three of fsu's first four possessions in the second half were fumbles, including the scoop and score. Just a complete meltdown, but fsu was way better than they played that day. 

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports, was on the First Team this morning (Kannel/McElroy) talking about the CFP expansion.   Couple recaps from things he's heard:

• Confirmation that the earliest anything will happen is 3 years from now.   After two more runs, each of the Big Semi bowls have each gone through the entire rotation three times.  The entire contract would have to be blown up, but expects the networks to play ball to be able to secure a longer term contract without it going to bid. (e.g. extend for another 12 years, which gets them 9 extra years).
• Eight seems like a sweet spot and 32 sounds comical, so he expects to hear 16 talked about most so that if there is a lot of hatred for it they can shrink to 8 and everyone is happy.  
• 16 is building support for one reason, first round games on campus.    The big brands, specifically the SEC, don't have a lot of incentive to change.   They're always in.   However, being able to host another home game, and sell tickets for it, not only gives the regular season greater meaning (seeding matters), but also fills the coffers.   Those top 8 teams would have an opportunity to give their fans a playoff game without traveling any more than today.   Doing this would also consolidate the final 8 within the current NY6 bowls with the second tier (Fiesta, Cotton, etc) hosting the quarters.    They could also do nothing to the current system and do the first round of 8 on campus for the top 4 - this is likeliest option as it would require the less
• One big struggle with 16 is finding the time to play.   The NFL added another round to their playoffs, so they start the second week of January now.   CFB still doesn't want to have games going on during the NFL playoffs and wants to continue to own the New Year timeline.  Considering they likely won't get rid of conference tournaments, nor rebuild all the conferences, one solution is start everyone on the current "week 0" 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Hurtlocker

[hpslugga 4,044]

15 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Eight seems like a sweet spot and 32 sounds comical, so he expects to hear 16 talked about most so that if there is a lot of hatred for it they can shrink to 8 and everyone is happy.  

Right, I expect 16 to be used as a lever to arrive at 8 as well.

Quote

• 16 is building support for one reason, first round games on campus.    The big brands, specifically the SEC, don't have a lot of incentive to change.   They're always in.   However, being able to host another home game, and sell tickets for it, not only gives the regular season greater meaning (seeding matters), but also fills the coffers.   Those top 8 teams would have an opportunity to give their fans a playoff game without traveling any more than today.   Doing this would also consolidate the final 8 within the current NY6 bowls with the second tier (Fiesta, Cotton, etc) hosting the quarters.

I personally would like to see campus games in the quarters in the first place. Hell, I'd be in favor for the fucking semis to be at home venues too, but that's a pipe dream for another generation to deal with.

Quote

• One big struggle with 16 is finding the time to play.   The NFL added another round to their playoffs, so they start the second week of January now.   CFB still doesn't want to have games going on during the NFL playoffs and wants to continue to own the New Year timeline.  Considering they likely won't get rid of conference tournaments, nor rebuild all the conferences, one solution is start everyone on the current "week 0" 

I've never understood this issue and for the following reasons:

1. Regarding the NFL, they don't start the postseason until January the 15th. 

2. Regarding the New Year's tradition...just don't have a fucking month-long layoff between regular and postseason. There has never been a demonstrated necessity for that. If anything, it's a detriment to the players to re-acclimate themselves to an actual competition environment. High schools don't wait for their playoff, neither do the pro's, neither do the other collegiate ranks. This is a stupid problem.

3. Let's suppose it's indeed 16 teams. Ok that's 4 rounds. Say they just start with the CCG's. [Ron White]Let's just say[/Ron White]. So that's:

Round of 16-December 4th
Round of 8-December 11th
Round of 4-December 18th
Bye-December 25th
NCG-January 1st

Not that fucking difficult as long as we stop pretending that it's just a given that FBS players are so physically (and mentally, for those who want to invoke the "FINAL EXAMS!" fallacy) delicate that they need to be taking 3-4 weeks off after CCG's. All these alleged "constraints" that FBS "faces" in making 8-16 a workable deal to be completed by New Year's are fictitious.

Edited May 7, 2021 by hpslugga

[clapclapclap 9,000]

12-team playoff may be the leader in the clubhouse.  We missed this article last month, probably because it is paywalled.  Maybe someone with a Little Orphan Annie decoder ring can help us out:

https://theathletic.com/2547804/2021/04/28/double-digit-teams-in-the-next-college-football-playoff-concerns-about-a-top-heavy-field-are-pushing-discussion/

Concerned that their four-team product has been harmed by the dominance of a select few teams from the same region, FBS commissioners are seriously considering expanding the College Football Playoff. And while it’s long been assumed that any change to the format would be modest, several influential decision-makers are suddenly open to a playoff system that skips past eight teams and into the double digits.

“I sense 12 teams is building support,” one Power 5 athletic director said.

 

 

[Machinator 32,097]

Just now, clapclapclap said:

12-team playoff may be the leader in the clubhouse.  We missed this article last month, probably because it is paywalled.  Maybe someone with a Little Orphan Annie decoder ring can help us out:

https://theathletic.com/2547804/2021/04/28/double-digit-teams-in-the-next-college-football-playoff-concerns-about-a-top-heavy-field-are-pushing-discussion/

Concerned that their four-team product has been harmed by the dominance of a select few teams from the same region, FBS commissioners are seriously considering expanding the College Football Playoff. And while it’s long been assumed that any change to the format would be modest, several influential decision-makers are suddenly open to a playoff system that skips past eight teams and into the double digits.

“I sense 12 teams is building support,” one Power 5 athletic director said.

 

 

Article:

Spoiler

Concerned that their four-team product has been harmed by the dominance of a select few teams from the same region, FBS commissioners are seriously considering expanding the College Football Playoff. And while it’s long been assumed that any change to the format would be modest, several influential decision-makers are suddenly open to a playoff system that skips past eight teams and into the double digits.

“I sense 12 teams is building support,” one Power 5 athletic director said.

The CFP first publicly acknowledged an exploration of larger expansion models in a news release Friday afternoon, and despite a line in that release that the commissioners currently support the four-team model, multiple sources who would be involved with the process have expressed to The Athletic a surprising willingness to contemplate what would have been considered radical only a year or two ago.

“There are two unintended consequences people didn’t see when they created the Playoff,” said a college administrator familiar with the discussions. “One, seeing the same teams over and over from one part of the country. It’s impairing the product, because there’s boredom. … There’s risk to not enough (geographic) spread. Secondly, the brand damage to a conference that doesn’t get in it.”

The CFP release revealed that a working group — made up of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick — is studying six-, eight-, 10-, 12- and 16-team formats. It’s still possible the commissioners decide to stay at four teams, but the momentum seems to favor expansion.

The question is whether those commissioners can convince their presidents to expand — and if so, how soon? The College Football Playoff’s 12-year contracts with ESPN and the six major bowls run through the 2025-26 season and would be complicated to change. However, if there’s a consensus to expand sooner, the 2023 season would make logical sense, as it’s the beginning of the last three-year semifinal rotation with the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta and Peach bowls. In that case, a decision would likely have to be reached by this fall or winter.

The College Football Playoff Management Committee (the FBS commissioners and Swarbrick) and Board of Managers (a panel of presidents and chancellors) will meet in person on June 22 in Dallas. It’s expected that the working group will present options to the presidents, and possibly make a specific recommendation at that time, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the presidents will greenlight blowing up the current system early.

“I wouldn’t predict what will happen,” said CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock. “The meeting last week doesn’t guarantee it will expand. Four teams remains an option, and we have five years left to go on the contract.”

Of the 28 available spots in the Playoff so far, Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma have filled 20. The fear of fatigue from a significant portion of the college-football watching public is real. With no salary cap and no draft to even out the talent levels among the teams, college football can’t rely on rapid changes in teams’ fortunes to keep things fresh. That means there is no telling when a new set of teams might cycle up to take the place of some of the current dominant teams.

The Pac-12 hasn’t placed a team in the Playoff since the 2016 season. The Big 12 missed the Playoff in 2014, 2016 and 2020. The Big Ten missed it in 2017 and 2018, and its champion was left out in 2016. (East Division second-place finisher Ohio State was included, though.)

An expanded Playoff would likely include automatic bids, which could ensure that the champions of each Power 5 league make the field. The hope is that this would help fan engagement in leagues such as the Pac-12. It also could increase the value of conference championship games. Last year’s Pac-12 Championship between USC and Oregon, which had no Playoff implications, drew 3.85 million viewers, down from the 5.9 million for Utah-Oregon the year before when the Utes still had a shot.

Another option in a larger field is to provide an automatic bid for the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, guaranteeing the possibility of access to five leagues that are, for all intents and purposes, shut out of the current Playoff.

One factor driving the exploration of a much larger bracket is a desire to avoid having to overhaul the format again in a few years.

“There’s a thought that IF you’re going to make a change and expand, you might as well do a little more than a little less,” said the source familiar with the discussions. “There’s always constant [public] pressure to keep increasing. You wouldn’t want to go through all this and realize fairly soon, you need to make more changes. So people want to think more long term.”

Even leagues that have enjoyed success under the four-team model can see the benefit of getting bigger. Asked which format they preferred, a source at an SEC school said: “The one that gets three SEC schools in!” This joke contains more than a kernel of truth. Had a 12-team playoff been in place in 2012, five SEC teams likely would have made the bracket.

Another major factor is that interest in the bowls beneath the Playoff has waned for fans and for players. Opt-outs have become more common as draft-eligible players choose not to risk injury in games that have no stakes attached. For example, the Florida team that lost by six points to eventual national champ Alabama in the SEC Championship played in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma without its best player (tight end Kyle Pitts) and three other starters. The result was a lopsided Oklahoma win in a matchup that didn’t resemble what organizers hoped they’d get when the game was set.

One reason commissioners opted for a four-team Playoff after scrapping the BCS was in an effort to protect the bowl system. Multiple sources indicated they don’t expect the commissioners to fight so hard for the bowls this time.

“I thought it was interesting they started the discussions this early,” a bowl executive said. “I don’t know how the bowls survive if they expand, to be honest. There will be some that survive, but with a different financial model. We make these big guarantees not knowing which teams we’re going to get.”

This same bowl executive said they spoke to a Power 5 AD in March who “already knew they were going to expand.”

Would an expanded playoff keep more stars playing into the postseason? One agent who represents NFL players said it might. “I think you go to the Ohio States and the Alabamas to get in the Playoff, and if they grow it so the CFP field expands so other teams get in, that’s everything you dream of if you’re a player there,” the agent said. “I think it’ll actually keep more guys playing.”

Said an NFL scout: “I would find that really hard to believe that it would cause more opt outs, whether it’s four, eight or 16 teams. It’s still the Playoff. Man, that’s why you got to the school. Now, if they’re only going to the CampingWorld.com bowl or something like that, I understand opting out.”

That line of thinking is another reason commissioners are considering a much bigger bracket.

Another key factor is whether ESPN would be willing to rip up the current deal and pay more for an expanded playoff. A former television network executive believes ESPN would be willing to play ball: “There are only so many platinum properties.” In the last non-pandemic season, the CFP semifinal games averaged 17.2 million and 21.2 million viewers, respectively. The national title game between LSU and Clemson averaged 25.6 million viewers. All those games aired on ESPN. The last non-pandemic NBA Finals — which aired on free-over-the-air ABC — averaged 15.1 million viewers per game.

The CFP is incredibly valuable to ESPN for a variety of reasons. Having such an in-demand event allows corporate parent Disney to put more pressure on cable and satellite operators to pay the highest per-subscriber fee in the industry (which is then passed on to the consumer). Plus, live sports events are now the only shows on television in which the vast majority of the viewers watch the ads in real time (or at all). ESPN would have to pay more, but it also stands to make more. So it wouldn’t matter that the network just committed about $2.6 billion a year to its new NFL deal if a CFP deal was profitable in its own right. “It’s not a zero-sum game,” the former TV executive said.

Renegotiating the deal now also provides another advantage to ESPN — keeping the Playoff from hitting the open market. If the leagues want to expand the Playoff before 2026, they have to do it with ESPN.

Will they expand before the current contract expires? That remains to be seen. But what seemed impossible only a few years ago seems quite possible now.

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

12-team playoff may be the leader in the clubhouse.  We missed this article last month, probably because it is paywalled.  Maybe someone with a Little Orphan Annie decoder ring can help us out:

https://theathletic.com/2547804/2021/04/28/double-digit-teams-in-the-next-college-football-playoff-concerns-about-a-top-heavy-field-are-pushing-discussion/

Concerned that their four-team product has been harmed by the dominance of a select few teams from the same region, FBS commissioners are seriously considering expanding the College Football Playoff. And while it’s long been assumed that any change to the format would be modest, several influential decision-makers are suddenly open to a playoff system that skips past eight teams and into the double digits.

“I sense 12 teams is building support,” one Power 5 athletic director said.

 

 

Didn’t an article or interview with someone in the know point out that 12 team will be the public push because it will make settling for 8 which is the number they truly want seem like “middle ground.”

[clapclapclap 9,000]

On 5/3/2021 at 9:14 AM, Machinator said:

 

Some key quotes:

In all, 10 of the 11 members of the CFP Management Committee spoke to Sports Illustrated for this story...

...At least five committee members say they are pro expansion and another three are open to the idea. Their reasons include diversifying what’s recently been a field of the same teams, affording highly ranked mid-major programs an opportunity and giving a shot to more power programs.

Another two commissioners described themselves as undecided on expansion. None of them privately revealed they were against expanding, which bodes well for potential expansion since the biggest hurdle, most commissioners say, is arriving at unanimous agreement...

 

...Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott and American commissioner Mike Aresco have been the most outspoken champions of expansion, while Sankey has been the most public in support of the current model...

 

...Several commissioners, even one from the Group of Five, believe that each Power 5 champion and the highest ranked team from the Group of Five should receive an automatic berth. An automatic spot for a G5 team is viewed as an essential compromise, as five of the 11 members represent G5 leagues...

 

...An accord seems to exist among most of the group on at least one of those questions: Early-round games should be hosted on campus by the top seeds.

Among commissioners, a key concern in expansion is weakening what is one of sports’ most thrilling regular seasons. In a playoff with on-campus games, teams are not just playing to get into the playoff field, but they are playing to host, incentivizing late-season matchups and then delivering titanic playoff duels in a more traditional college setting...

 

Edited May 26, 2021 by clapclapclap

[Hurtlocker 2,208]

1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

 

Among commissioners, a key concern in expansion is weakening what is one of sports’ most thrilling regular seasons. In a playoff with on-campus games, teams are not just playing to get into the playoff field, but they are playing to host, incentivizing late-season matchups and then delivering titanic playoff duels in a more traditional college setting...

 

I think this is what is going to drive it more than any media rights.  6-8 teams will get an extra home game.   Even if they have to allow 20k seats to opposing fans, that's a bottomline and reginal boom that they don't get today.  

If they did 12 last year with first round homes that would mean Cinci, A&M, Florida, and Oklahoma would all have hosted.   If they did the second round at home, then Bama, Clemson, Ohio State and ND would have hosted as well.   Then the final four would be just like it was today.

After mapping out 16 and 12, and even though I hate byes, it seems pretty obvious that 12 is where they will go.  Adding that extra round from 8 inserted UGA, Iowa State, Indiana and Coastal Carolina into the mix.   Going to 16 only added UNC, Northwestern, Iowa, and BYU, which I'm not sure raises the interest a ton more from the 8 added to get to 12.

 

 

[Hozz 1,012]

Longterm I would like to see 8 and then stay there for as long as possible.  I think 5 P5 and 3 at large (no automatic G5) is the way to go...that said, before we get there we have to figure out a way to make the sport more competitive at the top.  As much as I hate to say it, every CFP so far it feels like only 1-2 teams has a chance to win it all.  Even last year where most people didn't see aOSU wrecking Clemson, anyone with eyes knew Alabama was beating whoever.  So in that regard its really no better than BCS so far.

Also as far as an expanded playoff watering down the other bowls...they already are.  College FBS is by far my favorite sport and I spend 12 hours most Saturdays during the regular season watching as many P5 games as I can.  During bowl season, same thing.  I find it very entertaining to see two P5 teams play each other who otherwise wouldn't.  That isn't changing for me with 8 or a 16 game playoff.  I don't give a shit about G5 (or FCS) schools unless there is a hot one like Coastal Carolina or Liberty last year. 

[The Dog 43,805]

The only reason they don't expand beyond 8 - if they are even going to consider that - is because they wouldn't be leaving money on the table. They don't give two shits about the rest of that crap (regular season, bowls, whatever other excuses they might make). 

[Huckleberry 32,701]

Wanna make the regular season matter while expanding the playoff?

Go 16 with first round games on campus and give every conference champion a bid. In that scenario finishing in the Top 4 is crucial to get one of the worst 4 conference champions at home. And more importantly to me, it makes it a real playoff. As I've said before and I'm pretty sure on this thread somewhere, it's not a real championship playoff system if it's possible for a member of the league (FBS) to follow every rule, win every game they play, and not be the champion. Yes I realize that you'll have teams in there with zero chance of winning but if you don't like that then stop messing around and split the P5 away from the G5.

[LonghornSean 3,942]

I'm not crazy about byes so tend to favor an 8-team playoff,, but I did like this 10-team format

 

Edited May 26, 2021 by LonghornSean

[Machinator 32,097]

 

[Machinator 32,097]

Why a 12-team field has more juice than 8 schools 

How has a 12-team model become the presumptive favorite? Well, its potential emergence winds through the complex layers and varied agendas that cover a world that spans from Alabama to Troy and Ohio State to UTEP.

Let’s start with at-large bids. In the current four-team College Football Playoff model, all four teams are at-large. In a majority of the eight-team models that have been projected, there’d likely be either five or six automatic bids. That means a decrease in at-large bids, which would not be of much interest to the SEC — or even Notre Dame — which could perceive the expanded playoff as having less access. (The Pac-12 and entire Group of Five, to counter, would likely not be interested in expansion without some type of automatic bids).

Another snag that makes some uncomfortable with eight teams is who'd get left out. If there are six automatic bids, for example, a team ranked No. 4 or No. 5 could theoretically be left out and a team ranked No. 18, for example, makes the field. That scenario makes some uncomfortable

The issues are complex, but essentially, there are enough stakeholders who’d prefer to stay at four because of the advantages it gives them over growing to eight. Therefore, the likelihood of a 12-team version — there will even be some chatter about a 10-team tournament as a compromise — has bubbled up.

A 12-team version would answer a lot of the immediate looming issues with the College Football Playoff — lack of diversity of programs, access for Group of Five and the erosion of the importance of supposed top-tier bowl games outside the CFP thanks to player opt-outs.

How would 12 teams work? The basic thought is automatic bids for the five major conferences — which also juices up their league title games as play-in games — and one for the highest ranked Group of Five champion. The other six spots would be at-large bids. That gives automatic bids to some of the have-nots and more potential spots for the more powerful leagues, and compromise is important in a vote where consensus is needed.

The details of how those 11 games in a 12-team system would unfold will still need to be worked out in upcoming months. But the thought is that the first four teams would get a bye and teams No. 5 to No. 8 would host teams No. 9 through 12 at home sites. (This could, of course, irk teams that finished higher and don’t get the big gate, memorable experience and home-field advantage of a playoff game.)

Then the bowl system could potentially fill in from there, with the expectation being that many of the high-end bowls in the system now would remain. A few sources brought up former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany’s consulting role with the Rose Bowl — half jokingly — as a potential road block to playoff expansion.

Delany was a longtime playoff obstructionist and famously helped orchestrate a Rose Bowl deal with ESPN before the CFP was put together that blocked the sport’s best windows from the highest-profile games. The thought, for now, is that the bowls will still be part of the system in some form, and it would make sense for the Rose Bowl to be part of that if it’s more flexible. (It's important to remember that the New Year’s Six Bowls are grouped in that contract along with the playoffs.) How Delany will work to maximize the Rose Bowl’s history and tradition behind the scenes is fascinating theater for the Inside Baseball crowd.

[Slacks 6,791]

On 5/4/2021 at 8:28 AM, hpslugga said:

It may or may not be, but the point is certainly valid. Those other bowl game are a ratings laughingstock. There were 16 bowl games (roughly 60% of the field) that failed to crack a 2.0 rating (roughly 3.5 million viewers), 9 of which didn't even crack 2 million viewers. More people watch The Wall than that shit. What's particularly embarrassing about that is the fact that the lower bowl games are played in their own individual time slots so as to avoid competing against other bowl games...and that's the best they can do? https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

I would instantly counter your counter with "that's just you and a comparative handful of people. Most college football fans do not give a shit about those games."

I'm a comparative handful...

I don't watch as much football as I did because I've been a man for 10 years...  I think you and I are around the same age and have been posting on these boards for close ~20 years (wtf?!?!)  I remember a time when I'd watch any game on and/or go to a sports bar and watch ALL THE GAMES.  Hell, I've watched The Spring League... and have gone to a buddy's place and said, "Hey, there's a game on right now..." and introduced other buddy's to it.  It's football, slugga... the handfuls are going to watch... and there are enough handfuls to sustain the crappy games, too.  I don't give a shit about the games, as you point out... but I watch football. Shit, we live in Texas, where nobody gives a shit about Sulphur Springs or Kingwood, but we watch if they're on TV playing football.

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

I love the random ass bowl games because it's football and it's on TV in the dead of winter.

[BurntOrange&White 39,655]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I love the random ass bowl games because it's football and it's on TV in the dead of winter.

Yeah....I'll never understand the crowd that doesn't like watching football. Same crowd also bitches during the off-season about no football.

[Murfdogg21 4,412]

When did this board become populated with amateur ESPN programming execs? Who gives a shit about ratings. We cling to a notion of student athletics, but want to stomp out the lower tier bowl games that are the only opportunity for MAC#2 team vs CUSA#2 to play? Is it your money being lost unless they cancel those bowls? Does it flare up your IBS if you know the game is currently being played on ESPN2?

Why does expansion to 8 playoff teams mean you have to cut the little bowls? If you want to bar 5-7 and 6-6 record teams, fine by me. 

[Al_4_ISU 12,409]

27 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

When did this board become populated with amateur ESPN programming execs? Who gives a shit about ratings. We cling to a notion of student athletics, but want to stomp out the lower tier bowl games that are the only opportunity for MAC#2 team vs CUSA#2 to play? Is it your money being lost unless they cancel those bowls? Does it flare up your IBS if you know the game is currently being played on ESPN2?

Why does expansion to 8 playoff teams mean you have to cut the little bowls? If you want to bar 5-7 and 6-6 record teams, fine by me. 

It doesn't, and it won't.

You might lose the absolute bottom tier bowls, but those teams will just slide up into the remaining games.