Are all Restaurants Understaffed now (2021)?

[Gourmand 7774]

 

[HenryJames 66073]

 

[ChickenSandwich 9836]

Good for the multi billion dollar corporation. About time. 

[BabaYaga 15299]

11 hours ago, Gourmand said:

Confession time:

This thread for me might be the most home-hitting thread in the history of Surly, so much so that reading it almost triggers PTSD.

My background is in restaurant management. I was laid off from my job last year despite being the longest-tenured employee since the first location opened over a decade ago. I had to lay off all staff but two or three people and then got laid off myself the next day.

I was fortunate to have money saved and also recently closed on a house in Round Rock after selling my house in Austin that I bought ten years ago, so I wasn't destitute or living paycheck to paycheck. I was happy to collect well-deserved unemployment because I missed raising my toddler for the first 2 1/2 years of his life since I was stuck at that job for 12 hours per day. I only saw him for maybe an hour or two before work each day and my days off. But the reason I haven't returned to the industry is all about the industry and its untenable demands on salaried employees. I'm not willing to work a 60+hr week without  the occasional Sunday off, improved bonus structure, or higher employer contributions with health insurance, life insurance offering, or retirement plans. Unemployment pay allowed me time to catch up with raising my son and gave my wife a break but I'm not sure if I'm willing to go back to the industry unless the industry is willing to soften its demands on salaried employees. 

 

Sucks about your loss and I'm truly happy for you that you get to spend time with your little one. We've all been there.  You'll get through it.  But this about more than just restaurants.  

This is about the myriad of other small businesses that don't pay $2+/hr+tips.  That's the point.  This is about the vast majority of small business owners that have entry/lower wage jobs that they are unable to fill because they are unable to compete with the market disruption of their own government pricing them out of all roles that pay between $20-$25/hr.  COVID shutdowns crushed small businesses and rewarded larger corporations.  If we want to help these small shops we can do a number of things, including dialing back these relief checks so they can compete for labor in certain roles.  

[Al Czervik 1229]

29 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

 

The guys that run this operation are first class.

[huge 3793]

The Pluckers on I10 is advertising a $500 signing bonus after 90 days of employment.

[WBT 20579]

22 minutes ago, huge said:

The Pluckers on I10 is advertising a $500 signing bonus after 90 days of employment.

so which is it?

[usmc0331horn 953]

1 hour ago, Al Czervik said:

The guys that run this operation are first class.

Yep. My go to spot usually.

[Brisketexan 105151]

Just read a quick piece noting that Austin expects to be short 3,000 skilled construction workers in the next couple of years, impacting construction schedules.  Pointed to multiple issues, including the loss of migrant labor due to COVID (a good chunk of folks went back to their home countries, and not many have come back), not enough people have the skills, etc.

I've said it on this board before -- we should tell the W. Va. coal miners who are out of work that we found their coal miner jobs -- they are now construction jobs in Texas, so come and get 'em.

Labor mobility is ALSO a problem we have.  In our history, we've had waves of migration following the jobs.  That even happened in the 70s-80s (growing up in Houston, we all remember the bumper stickers of "last one to leave Michigan, turn out the lights").  But it isn't happening as much now, at least at the "working-class" level of jobs.  People in the tech industry, sure, they'll follow a 6-figure job.  But people in the 50k-80k job class.....they aren't following the work the way they once did.

[bluto 4929]

Just read a quick piece noting that Austin expects to be short 3,000 skilled construction workers in the next couple of years, impacting construction schedules.  Pointed to multiple issues, including the loss of migrant labor due to COVID (a good chunk of folks went back to their home countries, and not many have come back), not enough people have the skills, etc.
I've said it on this board before -- we should tell the W. Va. coal miners who are out of work that we found their coal miner jobs -- they are now construction jobs in Texas, so come and get 'em.
Labor mobility is ALSO a problem we have.  In our history, we've had waves of migration following the jobs.  That even happened in the 70s-80s (growing up in Houston, we all remember the bumper stickers of "last one to leave Michigan, turn out the lights").  But it isn't happening as much now, at least at the "working-class" level of jobs.  People in the tech industry, sure, they'll follow a 6-figure job.  But people in the 50k-80k job class.....they aren't following the work the way they once did.

In terms of work migration, is that because the areas where there are shortages are just too damn expensive these days? And it’s expensive as hell for a paycheck to paycheck person to move unless single/no fam. (Lease break costs alone freeze many people in place)

[Brisketexan 105151]

4 minutes ago, bluto said:

In terms of work migration, is that because the areas where there are shortages are just too damn expensive these days? And it’s expensive as hell for a paycheck to paycheck person to move unless single/no fam. (Lease break costs alone freeze many people in place)

That may well be some of it.  Even worse if you're stuck in a mortgage in a place with declining housing prices (like W. Va, I suspect), so you can't unload your house.  That said, back in the day, dad would move to where the work was, bunk with some other guys as cheaply as possible, till the family could afford to move.

I'm sure there's been some analysis of this by someone somewhere, would be interested to read it.

[synoptic 138]

Agreed on the above (high cost of housing/living in cities where jobs are at, tied down where they're at currently).  Another key differnece from times past is that now most families are two income households.  It's easier to relocate if you only need to find one good job.  Now most familes need two good jobs to make ends meet.

Edited May 13, 2021 by synoptic

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

43 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Just read a quick piece noting that Austin expects to be short 3,000 skilled construction workers in the next couple of years, impacting construction schedules.  Pointed to multiple issues, including the loss of migrant labor due to COVID (a good chunk of folks went back to their home countries, and not many have come back), not enough people have the skills, etc.

I've said it on this board before -- we should tell the W. Va. coal miners who are out of work that we found their coal miner jobs -- they are now construction jobs in Texas, so come and get 'em.

Labor mobility is ALSO a problem we have.  In our history, we've had waves of migration following the jobs.  That even happened in the 70s-80s (growing up in Houston, we all remember the bumper stickers of "last one to leave Michigan, turn out the lights").  But it isn't happening as much now, at least at the "working-class" level of jobs.  People in the tech industry, sure, they'll follow a 6-figure job.  But people in the 50k-80k job class.....they aren't following the work the way they once did.

Anybody from WVA that is semi competent and wants work is already in the three Cs of OH or Pittsburgh. It is a lot like LA folks in Texas post Katrina.

Edited May 13, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

31 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Anybody from WVA that is semi competent and wants work is already in the three Cs of OH or Pittsburgh. It is a lot like LA folks in Texas post Katrina.

Looked it up, WVA unemployment rate is 5.9 to Texas' 6.9.

[BabaYaga 15299]

5 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Looked it up, WVA unemployment rate is 5.9 to Texas' 6.9.

You'd want to see if there is a way to overlay the labor participation rate per state to see how many people just threw up their hands and quit looking for work.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

You'd want to see if there is a way to overlay the labor participation rate per state to see how many people just threw up their hands and quit looking for work.

Spring 2020 WVA hit 16% unemployment.

I seriously doubt WVA's state unemployment benefit is anything more than a pittance. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Js1 85347]

17 hours ago, Chopper said:

 

I really don't know what kind of a fucking moron responds to a post about the past 10 or 20 years by talking only about the last 3 or 4 months, and then follows it up with an extended rant insisting he's right all the while not being able to pull his head out of his ass. Go back to school.

Babaregard. Change your user name.

Ah I see you've become familiar with his work.  Don't check out the DT threads where he shits all over those too with bad takes and poorly read data. 

[Deej 76797]

Jimmy John's downtown Austin has a sign in their window: "$20/hr + tips"

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

3 minutes ago, Deej said:

Jimmy John's downtown Austin has a sign in their window: "$20/hr + tips"

Who was the guy during the kerfuffle about the $15 minimum wage in Seattle who said he would avoid fast food places if he found out they paid more than minimum wage and wouldn't tip at restaurants that paid their waiters more than the waiter minimum because he felt that meant he was overpaying?

[Deej 76797]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Who was the guy during the kerfuffle about the $15 minimum wage in Seattle who said he would avoid fast food places if he found out they paid more than minimum wage and wouldn't tip at restaurants that paid their waiters more than the waiter minimum because he felt that meant he was overpaying?

Whoever it was must be eating at home a lot. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

1 minute ago, Deej said:

Whoever it was must be eating at home a lot. 

It was one of those capitalists who doesn't like it when the market sets clearing prices they disagree with or hearing about how it works. Staying at home is a good way to avoid being confronted by objective reality. 

[Chopper 17235]

The labor challenges all around are brutal right now -- for the employed, unemployed and employers. The circumstance we're in is hopefully once in a lifetime. Furloughs. Lack of childcare or feeling safe at schools forcing women out of the workforce. Offices closed or limited, and having to work from home isn't a luxury a lot of people enjoy. Travel budgets slashed or eliminated causing additional stress and strain. The whole work from home dynamic is particularly brutal if you were working for an employer that was already hard-driving because now the workday never ends and you're never more than a few feet from the office. I know multiple people, most of them very accomplished executive women, who feel like they're near the end of what they can tolerate working for Big Tech. All of which is to say, if you're sitting at home typing furiously into your computer over and over about how angry you are about "market disruption" due to unemployment supplements, or if you're really, really worried about inflation primarily caused by the price of used cars instead of larger, macro issues pertaining to sustaining society, you should sit down and stfu.

[irishtexan 11519]

It was one of those capitalists who doesn't like it when the market sets clearing prices they disagree with or hearing about how it works. Staying at home is a good way to avoid being confronted by objective reality. 

So a cancel culturist?

[elfenix 34251]

2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Looked it up, WVA unemployment rate is 5.9 to Texas' 6.9.

being strung on out meth isn't "looking for work" when they're deciding who is unemployed

[huge 3793]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Who was the guy during the kerfuffle about the $15 minimum wage in Seattle who said he would avoid fast food places if he found out they paid more than minimum wage and wouldn't tip at restaurants that paid their waiters more than the waiter minimum because he felt that meant he was overpaying?

Roy Williams?

[huge 3793]

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

The labor challenges all around are brutal right now -- for the employed, unemployed and employers. The circumstance we're in is hopefully once in a lifetime. Furloughs. Lack of childcare or feeling safe at schools forcing women out of the workforce. Offices closed or limited, and having to work from home isn't a luxury a lot of people enjoy. Travel budgets slashed or eliminated causing additional stress and strain. The whole work from home dynamic is particularly brutal if you were working for an employer that was already hard-driving because now the workday never ends and you're never more than a few feet from the office. I know multiple people, most of them very accomplished executive women, who feel like they're near the end of what they can tolerate working for Big Tech. All of which is to say, if you're sitting at home typing furiously into your computer over and over about how angry you are about "market disruption" due to unemployment supplements, or if you're really, really worried about inflation primarily caused by the price of used cars instead of larger, macro issues pertaining to sustaining society, you should sit down and stfu.

Ok.  So I should feel bad about the very accomplished women in big tech?  What about the restaurant workers that hate their jobs?

[Gourmand 7774]

 

[Deej 76797]

Derka grew a beard?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

New unemployment numbers came out yesterday and the US is down to a quarter million(roughly .001% of the labor force) more on unemployment now than before the pandemic started.  That puts a pretty big hole in the argument that unemployment benefits are the root cause of the labor shortage.

Edited May 14, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

On 5/12/2021 at 6:33 PM, Chopper said:

I'm familiar with some charging $40 or more. And no, any of you perverts, it doesn't come with a hj.

What's a ZJ?

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

New unemployment numbers came out yesterday and the US is down to a quarter million(roughly .001% of the labor force) more on unemployment now than before the pandemic started.  That puts a pretty big hole in the argument that unemployment benefits are the root cause of the labor shortage.

How?  Shutting down businesses is the root cause, but the extended unemployment absolutely contributes.

Explain to me how increased uneemployment vs pre-pandemic is just immune to influence from these other factors.  Did it just happen in a vacuum?

 

[ChickenSandwich 9836]

1 hour ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

New unemployment numbers came out yesterday and the US is down to a quarter million(roughly .001% of the labor force) more on unemployment now than before the pandemic started.  That puts a pretty big hole in the argument that unemployment benefits are the root cause of the labor shortage.

If unemployment isn’t the cause then end the $300/wk in Covid Cash today and let’s see if the hypothesis holds up. Employment vs unemployment.  Employer vs Employer. 
 

Pre-Covid part time workers also get the $300 Covid cash on top of state unemployment benefits. They have zero incentive to return to the work force. Don’t see P/T mentioned much in the discussion despite being a very large part of the industry. Tons of 4hr shifts etc. which do fill an employment need.

Edited May 14, 2021 by ChickenSandwich

[HenryJames 66073]

18 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Who was the guy during the kerfuffle about the $15 minimum wage in Seattle who said he would avoid fast food places if he found out they paid more than minimum wage and wouldn't tip at restaurants that paid their waiters more than the waiter minimum because he felt that meant he was overpaying?

@TxTow?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

1 hour ago, slorch said:

How?  Shutting down businesses is the root cause, but the extended unemployment absolutely contributes.

Explain to me how increased uneemployment vs pre-pandemic is just immune to influence from these other factors.  Did it just happen in a vacuum?

 

Explain to me how the addition of one extra out of a thousand workers on unemployment is causing the current labor shortage.

[Underdog 28662]

LMAO @ I need you to come back to where I eat.  GD, that's some funny stuff. 

[WhatTheBuck 28783]

No. 

[Hook1997 5355]

On 5/14/2021 at 7:15 AM, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

New unemployment numbers came out yesterday and the US is down to a quarter million(roughly .001% of the labor force) more on unemployment now than before the pandemic started.  That puts a pretty big hole in the argument that unemployment benefits are the root cause of the labor shortage.

Feb of 2020 was 3.5% we are currently at 6.2% as of April last numbers reported what exactly is your point again?   If you don’t think the payments are part of the problem at this point you have a really thick skull.  Just go to your local Chili’s, hardware store, water park, or any mom and pop small business owner and ask if they can find employees it’s not that hard to find out the truth...

Edited May 16, 2021 by Hook1997

[Neonmoon 38129]

4 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

Feb of 2020 was 3.5% we are currently at 6.2% as of April last numbers reported what exactly is your point again?   If you don’t think the payments are part of the problem at this point you have a really thick skull.  Just go to your local Chili’s, hardware store, water park, or any mom and pop small business owner and ask if they can find employees it’s not that hard to find out the truth...

Payments are part of the problem, but they aren’t the only solution. Have they tried offering more money or benefits?

[Hagbard Celine 10867]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Payments are part of the problem, but they aren’t the only solution. Have they tried offering more money or benefits?

benefits (healthcare) is pornographically expensive for a small business owner.  the pandemic broke the social construct of paid/slave labor.  if they need workers, raise prices and offer more money until equilibrium is re-established.

Edited May 16, 2021 by Hagbard Celine

[phdhorn 6224]

Acc. to this graph (which doesn't account for a worse April), about 1.5% of American able workers were receiving unemployment in March, 2021.  Now, about 4.1% of them are.  That's a helluva lot more than .001%.  There's still a lot more people receiving unemployment now (over double the amount) than when this started.  Not even close.



(Sorry about the weirdness, I ripped off a screenshot without accepting cookies).

And, ff course the free money ("benefits") is the primary cause of the unemployment gap (which, as posted just above, is nowhere near where it was in Feb. 2020).  A few excerpts:

The largest business lobbying group in America on Friday blamed a $300-per-week federal jobless benefit for enticing Americans to stay at home and April’s far-weaker-than-expected jobs report.

“One step policymakers should take now is ending the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit,” the lobbying group added. “Based on the Chamber’s analysis, the $300 benefit results in approximately one in four recipients taking home more in unemployment than they earned working."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/us-chamber-of-commerce-rips-300-jobless-benefit-calls-for-repeal.html

The only other factor cited is concern by people about looking for work due to fears of getting sick.  But the labor force participation has increased by .2% over the last month, which means that more people are now looking - but not taking.  I.e. they're passing over lower paying jobs (i.e. restaurants) for stuff like grocery and retail.  This is probably why the job numbers shot up in March of this year - all those jobs were sucked up, and now you have the lowest paying ones that no one want.  And certainly getting unemployment equal to or more than what people make in the restaurant industry will keep them home, at least for awhile.

There is no doubt whatsoever that the benefits have played a huge, huge part in the slowdown.  Hell, Joey Boy mentioned it in his speech last week "Please don't stay on unemployment!").  It's a fact.

And my wife and I have been out to eat and for at least the last 5-6 times in a row, the service was way, way worse than normal.   And clearly, without doubt, although the restaurants we've been in were far from crowded (in a few cases, almost crickets), it was totally obvious that they were barely staffed - 1-2 waitpeople in a room that usually has 5-6.  And in one case they plainly told me that they only have "one cook working" tonight.  Stuff like that.
 

[bborange 10070]

On 5/14/2021 at 7:33 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

What's a ZJ?

[Ag with kids 581]

On 5/13/2021 at 1:00 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Who was the guy during the kerfuffle about the $15 minimum wage in Seattle who said he would avoid fast food places if he found out they paid more than minimum wage and wouldn't tip at restaurants that paid their waiters more than the waiter minimum because he felt that meant he was overpaying?

Wasn't me.  I wouldn't avoid any of the places (unless getting a Big Mac was $8 - fuck that noise).

But, I only tip at places BECAUSE they're making $2.13/hr and their wage is mostly paid by tips.  Pay them $15/hr ($30K/yr) and I wouldn't feel any need to tip.

I don't tip at any fast food places (people do this????) either.  It's a different wage model there.

[Ag with kids 581]

On 5/14/2021 at 7:15 AM, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

New unemployment numbers came out yesterday and the US is down to a quarter million(roughly .001% of the labor force) more on unemployment now than before the pandemic started.  That puts a pretty big hole in the argument that unemployment benefits are the root cause of the labor shortage.

Your math is wrong...

[Trey3216 15346]

On 5/12/2021 at 2:30 PM, BabaYaga said:

Shut down by their own government and are now directly competing against their endless money printing press, and the solution is just to "be better"

JFC....

The “Go get her, Ray” of economic theories.   
 

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

7 hours ago, Ag with kids said:

Wasn't me.  I wouldn't avoid any of the places (unless getting a Big Mac was $8 - fuck that noise).

But, I only tip at places BECAUSE they're making $2.13/hr and their wage is mostly paid by tips.  Pay them $15/hr ($30K/yr) and I wouldn't feel any need to tip.

I don't tip at any fast food places (people do this????) either.  It's a different wage model there.

Tell me you’re cheap without telling me you’re cheap

[Ag with kids 581]

36 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Tell me you’re cheap without telling me you’re cheap

You tip at fast food restaurants?

Or in Europe where they don't have our tipping structure?

Cool.

Although I've been chastised in Paris for tipping...

[CooterBrown 18014]

I’ve always wondered if customers actually end up paying more under the current structure for dinner + tip than if the restaurant paid a living wage with slightly higher prices and no tipping allowed. I’ve never noticed a significant cost difference in other countries with actual wages and no tips vs. comparable restaurants in the us.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I’ve always wondered if customers actually end up paying more under the current structure for dinner + tip than if the restaurant paid a living wage with slightly higher prices and no tipping allowed. I’ve never noticed a significant cost difference in other countries with actual wages and no tips vs. comparable restaurants in the us.

Is your service noticeably better/ worse under either structure?

[BabaYaga 15299]

23 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Acc. to this graph (which doesn't account for a worse April), about 1.5% of American able workers were receiving unemployment in March, 2021.  Now, about 4.1% of them are.  That's a helluva lot more than .001%.  There's still a lot more people receiving unemployment now (over double the amount) than when this started.  Not even close.



(Sorry about the weirdness, I ripped off a screenshot without accepting cookies).

And, ff course the free money ("benefits") is the primary cause of the unemployment gap (which, as posted just above, is nowhere near where it was in Feb. 2020).  A few excerpts:

The largest business lobbying group in America on Friday blamed a $300-per-week federal jobless benefit for enticing Americans to stay at home and April’s far-weaker-than-expected jobs report.

“One step policymakers should take now is ending the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit,” the lobbying group added. “Based on the Chamber’s analysis, the $300 benefit results in approximately one in four recipients taking home more in unemployment than they earned working."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/us-chamber-of-commerce-rips-300-jobless-benefit-calls-for-repeal.html

The only other factor cited is concern by people about looking for work due to fears of getting sick.  But the labor force participation has increased by .2% over the last month, which means that more people are now looking - but not taking.  I.e. they're passing over lower paying jobs (i.e. restaurants) for stuff like grocery and retail.  This is probably why the job numbers shot up in March of this year - all those jobs were sucked up, and now you have the lowest paying ones that no one want.  And certainly getting unemployment equal to or more than what people make in the restaurant industry will keep them home, at least for awhile.

There is no doubt whatsoever that the benefits have played a huge, huge part in the slowdown.  Hell, Joey Boy mentioned it in his speech last week "Please don't stay on unemployment!").  It's a fact.

And my wife and I have been out to eat and for at least the last 5-6 times in a row, the service was way, way worse than normal.   And clearly, without doubt, although the restaurants we've been in were far from crowded (in a few cases, almost crickets), it was totally obvious that they were barely staffed - 1-2 waitpeople in a room that usually has 5-6.  And in one case they plainly told me that they only have "one cook working" tonight.  Stuff like that.
 

What about those overworked women at Big Tech.  Where's their graph?

lol

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by BabaYaga

[CooterBrown 18014]

2 hours ago, slorch said:

Is your service noticeably better/ worse under either structure?

I've had great and shitty service under both models.  I'm not a diva.  Let me order. Bring me my meal. Refill my drink once. Bring me my check. It can be fast, it can be a bit slow. I'm pretty goddamn low maintenance and don't give a shit about service beyond that.

 What's noticeable is that the service is uniformly more competent in the living wage model.