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2021 Houston Rockets Offseason Thread - May the Lottery Balls be in Your Favor

BigOrange1

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6562

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i realize there is still 1 game left in the regular season, but who gives a fuck?  all that matters is june 22nd and getting a top 4 pick in the draft.

after tonight, we will know the exact number of the miami and milwaukee picks and could know the portland pick as well (though I am still hoping they fall to #7, lose the first play in game and then win 8 seed in order to improve that pick's positioning as much as possible).

i doubt the rockets are a big factor in free agency this summer.  i read on the other thread where there is talk about buying out john wall, but i'd rather not if they're going to stretch his salary.  i'd rather just eat it the next two years and get it off the books.  anyway, in the next few days we'll know exactly which mid to late first round picks we'll have and then we'll just sit around waiting and hoping until lottery night.

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https://theathletic.com/2609397/2021/05/24/rockets-offseason-preview-nba-draft-big-board-salary-cap-situation-internal-free-agent-priorities-more/

(Kelly Iko and Sam Vecenie) Rockets offseason preview: NBA Draft big board, salary-cap situation, internal free-agent priorities, more

Spoiler

The Rockets’ season hardly went as planned, as Houston posted a league-worst 17-55 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2011-2012 season. James Harden got traded, P.J. Tucker soon followed and by the time the NBA trade deadline had passed, the Rockets were in the early stages of a true rebuild.

The next steps begin this offseason, as Houston has a number of options for its salary-cap situation on top of being projected to hold three first-round picks in this summer’s NBA Draft. What should the Rockets do? The Athletic’s Kelly Iko and Sam Vecenie got together to identify relevant questions, sort through Houston’s core assets and break down the best draft targets.

What are the Rockets’ goals this offseason? (Iko)

The Rockets have fully committed to the rebuilding process. GM Rafael Stone said he doesn’t expect Houston to be in the sort of long transition period we’ve seen with other franchises, but the reality is getting back to the pinnacle of the Western Conference — and NBA, for that matter — will take some time. 

First and foremost, Houston should do everything in its power to give its players enough time off to wind down and recharge their bodies. This season didn’t allow for a ton of practice time, and a condensed schedule only made injuries more likely. The Rockets should be praying for a relatively clean bill of health next season. There shouldn’t be another situation in which the team plays an NBA record 30(!) different players in a season.

Secondly, the coaching staff has to sit down and assess each player. How do you view the end of the year? The Rockets were doing whatever they could to scrape a roster together, including signing players via the league’s hardship exception. Players were asked to do things they might not have been tasked with weeks or months prior. Young guys like Kevin Porter Jr., Jae’Sean Tate and K.J. Martin made the most of their minutes and played well given their expectations. Christian Wood can be lumped into this category, too, because of his age and timeline. 

From there, the coaching staff will need to look inwardly at their own abilities. Coming into the season, head coach Stephen Silas was prepared to coach a very different Rockets team than the one he ended up with. As a result, some sets and schemes had to be tweaked on the fly. But what worked? What didn’t? How can Silas and his staff continue to get the best out of players 1 through 15? They’ll need to address these questions. 

Stone said the team wants to continue to add good, young talent through the draft and free agency. Houston currently has the best odds (14 percent) of landing the top overall pick. The Rockets will also have two additional first-round picks via Portland and Milwaukee, both of which will fall at the tail end of the first round.

Concerning free agency, the Rockets need to continue to develop their culture and build their core slowly and patiently. A 17-55 team should not be looking to make the biggest splash or overpay for middling talent. Making a minor jump in the standings and possibly pushing for a Play-In spot might appease the fans, but ultimately, it’s not the right way to rebuild. 

Who are the players the Rockets are building around? Who are the relevant pieces on this roster that could play a role in their long-term rebuild? (Iko)

Kevin Porter Jr. — When the Rockets pulled the trigger to acquire Porter from Cleveland, it was done with an expectation that he could turn into a quality playmaker. Porter had flashed his scoring chops both in college at USC and during his rookie season for his playmaking as a Cavalier, but the position change to point guard was an entirely new venture. 

So Silas sent Porter down to the G League’s Rio Grande Valley Vipers. The Vipers, led by Mahmoud Abdelfattah, employed the same system the Rockets do, giving Porter a leg up on Silas’ schemes ahead of his eventual recall. Porter excelled in the G League, leading the Vipers to the playoffs. He carried that development over to Houston, averaging 16.6 points and 6.3 assists per game —  impressive numbers for a second-year player thrust into a season like Houston’s, to say nothing of doing so midway through the year.

Porter shared a backcourt with John Wall, with a plan to stagger the two and give Houston a nice one-two playmaking punch. Injuries robbed the team of a real chance to see this partnership long-term, but there were encouraging signs. It’s unclear what Wall’s future with the team will be, but Porter’s 50-point game against the Bucks late in the season was a clear sign he should be the focus moving forward. 

Christian Wood — Houston’s free agency splash proved to be a success, injuries notwithstanding, as Wood finished averaging 21.0 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 37 percent from behind the arc in 41 games. Silas and the staff let Wood play fast and free last season, not running plays for him and giving him more of a freelance offense. 

Moving forward, they’ll want to work closely with him to sharpen his rough spots and make him a more refined, versatile big man. Molding him into a more dependable rim protector and a sturdier low-post presence and keeping him more engaged without the ball will go a long way for his career. 

Kenyon Martin Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate: The Rockets got real value out of their rookies, a testament to their scouting department and Stone’s eye for talent. Martin proved to be an early surprise, taking full advantage of Houston’s injuries and becoming a better scorer and more confident ballhandler. Defensively, his athleticism served him well, keeping him among the rookie leaders in blocks and putting up at least one dunk or block highlight on a nightly basis. If Martin can continue to improve his jumper and handling, he’ll have a long, fruitful career. 

Tate is a testament to hard work, defense and grit, as keys to establishing yourself in a rotation. He quickly earned the trust of Silas and the coaching staff, moving from a bench spark plug to a starting role. Tate was deployed at a number of positions this season, showcasing his versatility and became Houston’s primary defensive stopper. Like Martin, Tate has some work to do with his outside jumper, but he showed flashes of secondary/tertiary playmaking, similar to what teammate Danuel House brings to the table. 

Salary-cap situation (Vecenie)

The Rockets have a few different ways they could handle the offseason. The team has nearly $89 million committed to Wall, Wood, House, Porter, Eric Gordon and D.J. Augustin next season. Toss in another $3 million to retain Tate’s and Martin’s non-guaranteed deals, and that gets them to $92 million for eight players. The cap is slated to come in around $112 million. 

A big piece of their plans will likely revolve around whether or not they keep their draft selection in the top four. A cap hold for a top-four selection would be at least $7.2 million (120 percent of the slated rookie scale for the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft) and could be as much as $10.05 million (120 percent of the slated rookie scale for the No. 1 overall pick). Keep their top-four pick, and they’ll have around $96 million to $99 million slated for nine players. The holds for picks No. 20 ($2.65 million) and No. 24 ($2.25 million) get them to between $101 million and $104 million for 11 players. 

Given Kelly Olynyk’s and Dante Exum’s cap holds, the Rockets could easily choose to act as an over-the-cap team if they so wish by retaining those on their sheet. If they aren’t interested in anyone in free agency, maybe they just give Olynyk a balloon payment for one year to keep their flexibility open while rewarding him for a great end to the season. He could be an interesting trade chip at the deadline next year, or maybe they see him as a good rotational piece if they keep their pick this year. They could retain Olynyk and still have the space to use their full midlevel exception. 

Or they could look to open up real space. There are really easy ways to do that if they want to. If the Rockets lose their pick, the team will have a lot of space already, somewhere in the ballpark of $20 million. They could actually get even more than that, though, and one way to do so would be to offload Augustin’s money via the stretch provision. He has $7.33 million guaranteed remaining, but because he has a very small partial guarantee in 2022-23, the team could stretch that $7.33 million over the next five years at a cap cost of just $1.46 million per season year. That would open up almost $6 million and get them to around $26 million in cap space. Throwing House into a deal — his one year at around $3.8 million might actually be attractive to someone as a rotational wing — while taking back no salary in return could get them close to $30 million in space. Heck, do those two things even while getting the No. 1 overall pick, and they’re near $20 million in space, which is enough to make a splash. 

So yeah, there is some uncertainty here, but there’s also some real potential. 

2021 NBA Draft Big Board (Vecenie)

The Rockets will essentially have a full draft board this year, but only certain pieces of it will be completely relevant. On the top end, they will need to have done due diligence on their top four prospects. For the Rockets, it looks like this for me.

Cade Cunningham
Jalen Suggs
Jalen Green
Evan Mobley
We’ve written pretty substantially about these four players and their fits in Houston. To sum it up, Cunningham is among the most complete prospects of the last decade. There are so few holes in his game, and he also has tremendous upside as a highly skilled scorer at 6-foot-8 who can also act as a lead ballhandler while providing plus defensive value on top of that. He’s a legitimate creator both in the half court and in transition. He’s a three-level scorer because of his ability to finish at the rim, his in-between game, his shot creation and his shooting. He didn’t get to show off his passing ability a ton in college due to the team he was on, but he’s a high-level distributor who can make all the reads in the book.

Suggs and Green come next. Simply put, high-level creators with real perimeter size are the most valuable commodities in the NBA. They’re worth their weight in gold. The standard for centers is just exceptionally high because the replacement level is so high. Mobley drastically exceeds replacement level, but I would prioritize the perimeter more than the interior due to the Rockets potentially having some uncertainty regarding their top-end pick situation in the future thanks to various deals they’ve made. Why Suggs over Green? He’s a much better passer with better vision. Additionally, Suggs is a much better defender both on and off the ball. Green is a better scorer, but Suggs’ more well-rounded overall game is a real differentiator. 

Finally, Mobley gets the clear nod at No. 4 over Jonathan Kuminga. He’s just so skilled as a rim protector rotationally, as a perimeter defender in ball screens and as an offensive playmaker due to his ballhandling and potential as a passer. He’s got a nice mix of modern center skills. 

Big Board for picks in the 20s (Vecenie)

Obviously, some players in the middle here are exceedingly unlikely to be available at No. 20. Those players, in some order, are Kuminga, Scottie Barnes, Josh Giddey, Davion Mitchell, Franz Wagner, Keon Johnson and Alperen Sengun. That’s 11 players. There are others who I think are also unlikely to be available but are at least worth listing. 

Next group, in order: Moses Moody, James Bouknight, Ziaire Williams, Kai Jones, Corey Kispert, Chris Duarte, Usman Garuba, Jaden Springer, Jalen Johnson, Ayo Dosunmu, Sharife Cooper, Cam Thomas, Jared Butler, Isaiah Jackson (if he leaves Kentucky) and Trey Murphy (if he leaves Virginia). 

That gets us to 26 names. Here’s a quick little brief on each and why he makes sense in Houston.

Moses Moody, W, Arkansas: Moody is a 6-foot-6 wing who can really knock down shots and is switchable defensively. The Rockets could use one of these to play next to any combination of perimeter players they have in the future. Think it’s unlikely he gets to No. 20.

James Bouknight, W, Connecticut: The Rockets have a score-first, creative guard in Porter, but their offense was not very good this season, and they could use another high-level creator like Bouknight. He’s very creative off the bounce and a terrific finisher. I think it’s unlikely he’s there at No. 20. 

Ziaire Williams, W, Stanford: Williams had a tough year at Stanford, interrupted by multiple life events and COVID-19-related issues at Stanford. When he’s on, he’s an athletic 6-foot-8 shot maker who any team would love to have. But he struggled to do anything efficiently, and his overall season was not awesome. There is a chance he gets to No. 20, as his draft stock is all over the map.

Kai Jones, C, Texas: Jones is one of the most athletic players in the draft, with terrific bounce and real flexibility/fluidity that allows him to get the most out of it. He has some upside as a legitimate shot creator at center. He’s just a major project and will take some time. The Rockets have that time, though. I think it’s relatively unlikely he’ll be available. 

Chris Duarte, G, Oregon: Duarte is one of my favorites in this draft class, a two-way shooter and defender who can make plays with ball in hand. He’ll turn 24 before ever playing an NBA game, but he’s valuable for a team looking to build a positive culture. I think it’s likely he’ll be available at No. 20 right now. 

Corey Kispert, W, Gonzaga: Kispert is one of, if not the best, shooters in the draft. He is a 6-foot-7 wing who hit well over 40 percent from 3 over his career at Gonzaga, and his game looks tailor-made to a floor-spacer role. He also ticks all the boxes from a character perspective and would be a culture-builder. He’s more likely than not to be off the board, but there is a chance. 

Usman Garuba, F, Real Madrid: Garuba is one of the best defenders in the class, a 6-foot-8 big who can slide and fly around the perimeter in addition to protecting the rim. He has All-Defense upside in the right scheme. His offense is just very far away from contributing at a high level right now. Similar to Kispert, I think it’s more likely he’ll be off the board right now. 

Jaden Springer, G, Tennessee: Springer is a 6-foot-4 guard who is terrific on defense and has some real upside as a scorer. He understands how to use his frame and has underrated passing acumen in how he reads the floor. But he’s kind of a bully-ball player right now, and teams worry about how his shot will translate. He’s another guy who is kind of all over the map for teams. The pre-draft process will go a long way toward determining if he’ll be available.

Jalen Johnson, F, Duke: Johnson had a tough season at Duke, eventually departing midway through the year. But he’s a high-upside point forward who can pass the ball at 6-foot-8 and lead the break on grab-and-gos. His draft stock is all over the map for teams, it’s anybody’s guess where he’ll be taken from No. 7 to No. 25. 

Ayo Dosunmu, G, Illinois: Dosunmu was a first-team All-American this season who has the potential to excel as a two-way player in the NBA. Teams are worried about how his jumper will translate, but he has a shot to be very good as a secondary playmaker if that part of his game translates. I think he’s more likely than not to be available at No. 20 right now. 

Sharife Cooper, G, Auburn: Cooper is one of the most creative ballhandlers in the class, a terrific live-dribble passer and playmaker who can separate from anyone. But he struggles on defense and struggles to shoot it right now, two really problematic flaws for a smaller guard at (maybe) 6-foot-1. He’s another player all over the map for teams, but I think he’s more likely to be available than most of the players above him. 

Cam Thomas, G, LSU: Teams I’ve spoken with are a bit less enthused by Thomas’ game, despite the fact that he finished fourth nationally in scoring as a freshman. His shot creation is very real. He just didn’t showcase anything resembling a well-rounded game on offense or a strong defensive acumen. This is right around where most people have his range, so I’d say it’s 50/50 if he’s available. 

Jared Butler, G, Baylor: A first-team All-American, Butler has a terrific all-around scoring game due to his shooting ability and handle. He’s also an unselfish passer and good defender. Not as explosive as Thomas, but steadier. I think he’s likely to be on the board at No. 20. 

Isaiah Jackson, C, Kentucky: One of the most athletic bigs in the class, Jackson was starting to put it together at the end of the season. He may not officially leave Kentucky, as he hasn’t made his final intentions known. Based on Kyle Tucker’s reporting, Jackson seems to be looking to be a lottery pick and may not actually decide to enter if he’s going to fall around at No. 20. 

Trey Murphy, F, Virginia: One of the risers of the late-season process as more teams have gotten to dive deep into his game, Murphy has a shot to be a legit first-round pick if things break right for him. He’s an elite shooter at 6-foot-9 with real springy athleticism. He’s also OK on defense; he just isn’t super comfortable putting the ball on the floor. 

 

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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6153

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We're gonna get a top 4 pick.

 

Question about the lottery through. It used to be worst team got the most ping pong balls then the next got 1-2 less balls and so on and so forth. Did the way they do it change? and what year did out change because I seriously haven't paid attention to it in years.

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Machinator

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4 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

We're gonna get a top 4 pick.

 

Question about the lottery through. It used to be worst team got the most ping pong balls then the next got 1-2 less balls and so on and so forth. Did the way they do it change? and what year did out change because I seriously haven't paid attention to it in years.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

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UDontKnow

UDontKnow 10508

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57 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I thought our organization was run as shitty as possible, then Dallas happened a season later.

Those two need not be mutually exclusive, but Dallas certainly looks to be a bigger dumpster fire (at the moment) considering Carlisle flat-out left money on the table to GTFO. 

https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/6/14/22533775/luka-doncic-mark-cuban-rift-donnie-nelson-rick-carlisle-haralabos-voulgaris

Some shadowy analytics guy undercutting the GM (you know the guy who brought in Dirk and Luka) who left after 24 years and Carlisle probably saw the writing on the wall.

Edited by UDontKnow
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Scraps

Scraps 13600

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I did that deal the Rockets had for 10 tickets however you want them (2 for 5 games, 1 for 10, etc) for $100 and if they get a top 4 pick you also get a swingman jersey lol. I know they will be nosebleeds, but $10 a game I am in.

Please get a top 4 pick so there is a rookie worth watching next season lol

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8918

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I did that deal the Rockets had for 10 tickets however you want them (2 for 5 games, 1 for 10, etc) for $100 and if they get a top 4 pick you also get a swingman jersey lol. I know they will be nosebleeds, but $10 a game I am in.

Please get a top 4 pick so there is a rookie worth watching next season lol

I’m 62.5% sure the worst Houston can pick is 4th
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HtownHorn

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5 hours ago, Scraps said:

I did that deal the Rockets had for 10 tickets however you want them (2 for 5 games, 1 for 10, etc) for $100 and if they get a top 4 pick you also get a swingman jersey lol. I know they will be nosebleeds, but $10 a game I am in.

Please get a top 4 pick so there is a rookie worth watching next season lol

Yeah. I mean #1 overall would be great, but a Top 4 pick in this draft will set the franchise up. I think the Top 4 for the Rockets board would be

Cunningham

Mobley

Suggs

Green

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14943

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Just now, Scraps said:
9 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I’m 62.5% sure the worst Houston can pick is 4th

Poor MN

OKC too. They had two shots at a Top 5 pick and didn't get one, and they were one of the teams that got jumped out of the Top 4. Haha. fuck off Presti.

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