2021 Houston Rockets Offseason Thread - May the Lottery Balls be in Your Favor

[Macklemore 2872]

3 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Green take did not age well, haha. 

Nope and I’m glad it didn’t. After the early turnovers, he had a very efficient game 

[billfromlaketravis 11515]

Ok let’s fast forward to August 1, 2023 after the Rockets draft a lottery pick and Buck’s pick at the end of the first round. Who is conceivably available in free agency that would be a good fit? 

Edited August 11, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[Wulaw Horn 19096]

17 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

It’s fun to have young talent to watch develop. Maybe one more tank season, another top 3 pick, get out of Wall’s contract, become a playoff time while living off the Nets’ picks for the next decade to restock support players.  

There is no doubt that the Rox need to tank this season in my mind. They need one more bite at the apple picking high- b/c one star doesn't do shit for you you need a second one as well (and maybe a third- but definitely a second).  Play a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds all year. That will take care of the losing. Don't do anything stupid like attach assets to get out of Wall or Gordon's contracts.  Just let the losing happen while guys scrap and try to get better and then try to compete for the playoffs in 22-23. Ideally I'd like to see them tank that season too so you can be like OKC when you got 3 bites at the apple with KD, Russ and Harden- but I doubt anyone will have the stomach for that and having control of Brooklyn's draft for so long obviates some of the need to do that as you can hope that they suck when their big 3 ages out of contention.  

[BigOrange1 6442]

2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Ok let’s fast forward to August 1, 2023 after the Rockets draft a lottery pick and Buck’s pick at the end of the first round. Who is conceivably available in free agency that would be a good fit? 

#2 on this list: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2023/

[billfromlaketravis 11515]

37 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

#2 on this list: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2023/

 

44 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is no doubt that the Rox need to tank this season in my mind. They need one more bite at the apple picking high- b/c one star doesn't do shit for you you need a second one as well (and maybe a third- but definitely a second).  Play a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds all year. That will take care of the losing. Don't do anything stupid like attach assets to get out of Wall or Gordon's contracts.  Just let the losing happen while guys scrap and try to get better and then try to compete for the playoffs in 22-23. Ideally I'd like to see them tank that season too so you can be like OKC when you got 3 bites at the apple with KD, Russ and Harden- but I doubt anyone will have the stomach for that and having control of Brooklyn's draft for so long obviates some of the need to do that as you can hope that they suck when their big 3 ages out of contention.  

Good post. I’d be really wary of a sign and trade for a super max player in 2023. Any team will be coming for our picks. If a player wants to come here, he needs to sign straight up. If not, pass. 

It’s early, but Stone’s front office is showing more competence drafting in the middle/late first round than Morey’s front office. Eventually Morey just gave up, and I can’t say I blame him. 
 

I would temper my optimism about the Nets picks. They have a ton of money and good ownership. They don’t ever really need to tank. 

[Wulaw Horn 19096]

5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

 

Good post. I’d be really wary of a sign and trade for a super max player in 2023. Any team will be coming for our picks. If a player wants to come here, he needs to sign straight up. If not, pass. 

It’s early, but Stone’s front office is showing more competence drafting in the middle/late first round than Morey’s front office. Eventually Morey just gave up, and I can’t say I blame him. 
 

I would temper my optimism about the Nets picks. They have a ton of money and good ownership. They don’t ever really need to tank. 

No, but they might accidentally suck because of injuries or they might win the lotto or something. It’s a chance greater than zero. 

[HtownHorn 14723]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There is no doubt that the Rox need to tank this season in my mind. They need one more bite at the apple picking high- b/c one star doesn't do shit for you you need a second one as well (and maybe a third- but definitely a second).  Play a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds all year. That will take care of the losing. Don't do anything stupid like attach assets to get out of Wall or Gordon's contracts.  Just let the losing happen while guys scrap and try to get better and then try to compete for the playoffs in 22-23. Ideally I'd like to see them tank that season too so you can be like OKC when you got 3 bites at the apple with KD, Russ and Harden- but I doubt anyone will have the stomach for that and having control of Brooklyn's draft for so long obviates some of the need to do that as you can hope that they suck when their big 3 ages out of contention.  

There is no reason to tank this season. You develop the young core, the losses will be plenty, but it's not tanking. Tanking would be letting Wall + Gordon play 30 minutes a game. The Rockets will still lose but Green, Martin, Porter, Sengun, Garuba, Christopher, etc. will all have their development pushed back a year. The Rockets should be looking to trade Wood for a big ass haul at the deadline as well. I really hope that going into March the rotation is close to the guys above and Theis.

If the Rockets play their young core and somehow don't get a Top 3 lottery record, that is a perfectly acceptable outcome.

 

As far as 2023 goes there is the big 3 of Jokic, Embiid, and likely Zion. Zion would be a great fit along side of our core, and the Rockets will likely be one of the few teams with the ability to sign him outright with only $55M and change in committed salaries.

Edited August 11, 2021 by HtownHorn

[billfromlaketravis 11515]

28 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

There is no reason to tank this season. You develop the young core, the losses will be plenty, but it's not tanking. Tanking would be letting Wall + Gordon play 30 minutes a game. The Rockets will still lose but Green, Martin, Porter, Sengun, Garuba, Christopher, etc. will all have their development pushed back a year. The Rockets should be looking to trade Wood for a big ass haul at the deadline as well. I really hope that going into March the rotation is close to the guys above and Theis.

If the Rockets play their young core and somehow don't get a Top 3 lottery record, that is a perfectly acceptable outcome.

 

As far as 2023 goes there is the big 3 of Jokic, Embiid, and likely Zion. Zion would be a great fit along side of our core, and the Rockets will likely be one of the few teams with the ability to sign him outright with only $55M and change in committed salaries.

Could you briefly explain how Zion could opt out before 2024? I haven’t seen it in print anywhere. 

[Wulaw Horn 19096]

2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Could you briefly explain how Zion could opt out before 2024? I haven’t seen it in print anywhere. 

He could sign a qualifying offer for a year and get FA after year 5. 

[ChickenSandwich 9843]

44 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

There is no reason to tank this season. You develop the young core, the losses will be plenty, but it's not tanking. Tanking would be letting Wall + Gordon play 30 minutes a game. The Rockets will still lose but Green, Martin, Porter, Sengun, Garuba, Christopher, etc. will all have their development pushed back a year. The Rockets should be looking to trade Wood for a big ass haul at the deadline as well. I really hope that going into March the rotation is close to the guys above and Theis.

If the Rockets play their young core and somehow don't get a Top 3 lottery record, that is a perfectly acceptable outcome.

 

As far as 2023 goes there is the big 3 of Jokic, Embiid, and likely Zion. Zion would be a great fit along side of our core, and the Rockets will likely be one of the few teams with the ability to sign him outright with only $55M and change in committed salaries.

Watching the summer league, the glaring hole is PG. I feel Wall may actually be good for Green and we may win a few more than we should. If that is the case hopefully we can trade Wood for a real haul because he stayed healthy and is a monster. I’m not sure we suck as much as we should until wall and wood have their annual injuries. 

Edited August 11, 2021 by ChickenSandwich

[billfromlaketravis 11515]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Watching the summer league, the glaring hole is PG. I feel Wall may actually be good for Green and we may win a few more than we should. If that is the case hopefully we can trade Wood for a real haul because he stayed healthy and is a monster. I’m not sure we suck as much as we should until wall and wood have their annual injuries. 

I think they can “load manage” Wall into some long losing streaks. It would be heartless to shut down Wood. The guy has worked so hard on his game, he’s in the prime of his career, and he’s playing for next contract. 
 

But I agree both are very injury prone. I do wonder how many games each could have played last season if the Rockets were playing for something meaningful. 

[BigOrange1 6442]

yeah i'd be shoked if john wall plays more than 50-55 games this season.  they will load manage the shit out of him.  

any guesses at a starting lineup?  i think it'll be something along the lines of wall-kpj-green-tate-wood.  on nights wall sits they could go: kpj-green-tate-wood-sengun.  all this assumes that they keep eric gordon as the first guard off the bench (which they should, but i could see his senority playing a factor).  it will be a true shame if green and kpj aren't both starting every game they are healthy.

[BigOrange1 6442]

aaaand i totally forgot about daniel theis, who will definitely be starting.  probably look something like: wall, kpj, green, wood, theis.

[Wulaw Horn 19096]

34 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

aaaand i totally forgot about daniel theis, who will definitely be starting.  probably look something like: wall, kpj, green, wood, theis.

This seems like a dumb lineup. Not that they won’t do it, just that it’s not future oriented enough and might win us a half dozen more games than we’d optimally like to win. 

[Wulaw Horn 19096]

35 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

aaaand i totally forgot about daniel theis, who will definitely be starting.  probably look something like: wall, kpj, green, wood, theis.

I agree with you that this is pretty likely. I just don’t like it. 

[billfromlaketravis 11515]

KPJ has made it abundantly clear he wants to play point guard right, right? I’d recommend giving him a ton of minutes there to avoid another Cleveland pout fest. He’s a good young player, throw him a bone. 

Theis was a pretty good pick up. Compliments Wood well, doesn’t care if he gets the ball, pretty good rim protector, and good mentor to Sengun. 

The NBA is a really stacked league right now. There were 20 legitimately good teams last season. The Rockets have some nice pieces, but they should be tanking by the all star break. 

I probably didn’t watch enough Rockets games last season to make an educated guess at a rotation this coming season. I’m not sure how beneficial it would be playing Sengun a lot of minutes early. He’s just not strong enough yet. 10-15 minutes per game sounds right. 

Edited August 12, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[BigOrange1 6442]

garuba debuts tonight!

[HtownHorn 14723]

Our guys have a strength issue in the paint.

[UDontKnow 10447]

3 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Our guys have a strength issue in the paint.

Which is why the Theis pickup is underrated.

Maybe Garuba evolves into a physical rebounding PF next to Alperen Sengun in the paint. Down the road, a frontcourt trio of Martin, Garuba, and Sengun would be intriguing if they all can stay on the proper developmental trajectory.

It will be interesting to see which way the Rockets go for the 2022 draft since it's likely to be another top 5 (at worst top 10 pick). I speculate another big because the guard and wing pools are getting crowded.

[Slacks 6821]

On 8/13/2021 at 2:29 AM, UDontKnow said:

Which is why the Theis pickup is underrated.

Maybe Garuba evolves into a physical rebounding PF next to Alperen Sengun in the paint. Down the road, a frontcourt trio of Martin, Garuba, and Sengun would be intriguing if they all can stay on the proper developmental trajectory.

It will be interesting to see which way the Rockets go for the 2022 draft since it's likely to be another top 5 (at worst top 10 pick). I speculate another big because the guard and wing pools are getting crowded.

i speculate picking up as many of the 'best available' that you can.  going to need trade pieces to trade John Wall and his $47M next summer... because he's not opting out of $47M, unless there's a team out there that would like to give him a long term contract for $90M+.  He can run for $47M and easily get a 3yr/$45 behind that, so no need to opt out of $47M, unless it's to go to a contender that needs a 16/8 PG.

[HtownHorn 14723]

7 hours ago, Snacks said:

i speculate picking up as many of the 'best available' that you can.  going to need trade pieces to trade John Wall and his $47M next summer... because he's not opting out of $47M, unless there's a team out there that would like to give him a long term contract for $90M+.  He can run for $47M and easily get a 3yr/$45 behind that, so no need to opt out of $47M, unless it's to go to a contender that needs a 16/8 PG.

The Rockets will buy him out. My guess is that he plays to the AS break and then is bought out.

[Slacks 6821]

14 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

The Rockets will buy him out. My guess is that he plays to the AS break and then is bought out.

Not my money, so I'm fine with it.  Gambling money is good money.

[Murfdogg21 4413]

If they will end up paying 50% or more of his remaining contract in a buyout (hell maybe 90%), instead would he have any trade value if the Rockets agreed to pay 50-75% of the remaining guaranteed money then got some assets for it?

[UDontKnow 10447]

John Wall unlikely to see time on the court this season. If true, great news!

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/14/why-john-wall-and-the-rockets-want-to-part-ways-and-what-comes-next/

Quote

Coming off a year with the NBA’s worst record and a draft class featuring four first-round rookies, many wondered how five-time All-Star John Wall would fit with the suddenly rebuilding Houston Rockets.

It now appears that we have our answer. As first reported by Shams Charania of The Athletic and confirmed by many reporters elsewhere, the Rockets and Wall have agreed to part ways while working on a future trade. As part of this plan, Wall will attend training camp with the Rockets when it begins in late September but isn’t expected to play in games.

“The Rockets explained that the team does not want to jeopardize Wall’s fitness, and the sides agreed on the route that won’t complicate his ability to continue playing at a high level,” Charania writes.

Per Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston, the 31-year-old did not ask to be traded. “According to sources, the five-time All-Star simply isn’t part of the Rockets’ long-term plans,” Berman tweeted of Wall, who averaged 20.6 points and 6.9 assists with Houston last season.

 

[Intercourse With Gray 140]

11 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

John Wall unlikely to see time on the court this season. If true, great news!

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/14/why-john-wall-and-the-rockets-want-to-part-ways-and-what-comes-next/

 

I wouldnt say "great news!" 

Paying a player that much money to not play is bad news for the franchise. However a trade is welcomed

[Fastbreak 3988]

A trade is simply not feasible. The contract is just too big. I’ve heard some people say Clippers, but the package would have to be:

Kennard

Bledsoe 

Zubac/Morris/ibaka 

why would the rockets want that? 

[BigOrange1 6442]

6 hours ago, Intercourse With Gray said:

I wouldnt say "great news!" 

Paying a player that much money to not play is bad news for the franchise. However a trade is welcomed

it's great news because they are going to allow green and kpj to play together.  wall's money is a sunk cost anyway and if he's cool with not playing, i'm fine with the rockets paying him not to.

[Fastbreak 3988]

crazy 4 teamer that works money wise. 
 

Clippers get Wall

Spurs get Kennard and maybe a 2nd

OKC gets Bledsoe and a few 1st picks from Hou/lac

Rockets get zubac, Thad Young, Semanic

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

23 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

crazy 4 teamer that works money wise. 
 

Clippers get Wall

Spurs get Kennard and maybe a 2nd

OKC gets Bledsoe and a few 1st picks from Hou/lac

Rockets get zubac, Thad Young, Semanic

 

Why in the blue fuck would the Spurs do that? Kennard isn't worth his contract and the Spurs already don't have enough minutes at the 2/3 for White, Walker, Vassell and Primo. And they are going to give up on Samanic after two years, a first round pick who is only 21 and still growing? AND Thad Young? For maybe a second round pick? 

[maninblack 7974]

I'm ready

[Fastbreak 3988]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Why in the blue fuck would the Spurs do that? Kennard isn't worth his contract and the Spurs already don't have enough minutes at the 2/3 for White, Walker, Vassell and Primo. And they are going to give up on Samanic after two years, a first round pick who is only 21 and still growing? AND Thad Young? For maybe a second round pick? 

I don’t know if they would. The point would be that it is going to be very hard (impossible) to trade Wall. 

[UDontKnow 10447]

If there is any truth to this statement, the Rockets have their ball handlers in place: KPJ, Exum, and Augustin. No Wall.

https://rocketswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/14/report-dante-exum-on-verge-of-contract-agreement-to-rejoin-rockets/

Quote

Per Shams Charania of The Athletic, Exum is nearing a deal to rejoin the team. In the aftermath of Houston’s decision to part ways with John Wall, The Athletic’s Alykhan Bijani reported Tuesday that the Rockets had held discussions of late with free agent point guards, including Exum. Now, it appears that those talks have resulted in an agreement.

At the moment, Houston has a completely full offseason roster of 20 players, and the agreement not to play Wall does not clear a roster spot. Thus, for an Exum signing to be finalized, the Rockets would have to let a current player go. As of late Tuesday, it was not clear who that would be.

 

[HtownHorn 14723]

Wall and Gordon are sunk costs at this point. Maybe you can move Gordon, not likely. Neither of those 2 guys should be getting playing time over Green, Porter, Martin, Tate, or Brooks.

I don't understand their love affair with Khyri Thomas, but he'd be a guy that's replaceable for Exum. The Rockets have a shit ton of SGs.

[HtownHorn 14723]

Wall for Kennard (3), Bledsoe (1), and Ibaka(1) works.

The Kennard contract sucks, but they should be able to move that in 2023 when the deal only has 1 more year which is a club option.

[Slacks 6821]

On 9/15/2021 at 1:24 PM, HtownHorn said:

Wall and Gordon are sunk costs at this point. Maybe you can move Gordon, not likely. Neither of those 2 guys should be getting playing time over Green, Porter, Martin, Tate, or Brooks.

I don't understand their love affair with Khyri Thomas, but he'd be a guy that's replaceable for Exum. The Rockets have a shit ton of SGs.

Gordon is probably easier to move than Wall.  Gordon can play, score, and defend (when healthy).

Wall can't stay healthy and is damn near $90MM for 2 years.

[Pimphand 5764]

You cannot trade either Gordon or Wall without picking up a bad contracts in return. The Rockets need to suck for 2 more seasons anyways so just keep bad contracts we have. If the Rockets picked up every single team option for every non Gordon player they are sitting at $41,926,171 for 2023/24.  Mix in some additional rookie contracts and the team could be sitting pretty.

[tx 3 putt 77060]

100% vaxxed, i like it 

[ChickenSandwich 9843]

On 9/23/2021 at 3:13 PM, Pimphand said:

You cannot trade either Gordon or Wall without picking up a bad contracts in return. The Rockets need to suck for 2 more seasons anyways so just keep bad contracts we have. If the Rockets picked up every single team option for every non Gordon player they are sitting at $41,926,171 for 2023/24.  Mix in some additional rookie contracts and the team could be sitting pretty.

you make Morey take them both for Ben Simmons, and add in some of their draft picks.  Yes you add two years, but he's a talent worth kicking the tires on; and at two year (with increased salary cap) maybe he is easier to unload.

Make Dream a coach again and tell Ben he's a post player now.

[Zeus 6091]

On 8/11/2021 at 5:33 PM, ChickenSandwich said:

Watching the summer league, the glaring hole is PG. I feel Wall may actually be good for Green and we may win a few more than we should. If that is the case hopefully we can trade Wood for a real haul because he stayed healthy and is a monster. I’m not sure we suck as much as we should until wall and wood have their annual injuries. 

Vet from Texas in there Rox will be fine.

[billfromlaketravis 11515]

John Wall has been a good sport about all this, but you have to question his love of the game. He’s 31 years old and voluntarily sitting out 2 seasons when he’s healthy. 
 

If he wanted to play, he’d take 50 cents on the dollar and move on. Ball is not life. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by billfromlaketravis

[UDontKnow 10447]

3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

you make Morey take them both for Ben Simmons, and add in some of their draft picks.  Yes you add two years, but he's a talent worth kicking the tires on; and at two year (with increased salary cap) maybe he is easier to unload.

Make Dream a coach again and tell Ben he's a post player now.

Morey would never go for such a deal. 

Ben Simmons is adamant that he wants to be a primary ball handler. With KPJ emerging (and likely faster than anticipated), there is no way in hell the Rockets would sacrifice his playing time.

 

[HtownHorn 14723]

6 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

Morey would never go for such a deal. 

Ben Simmons is adamant that he wants to be a primary ball handler. With KPJ emerging (and likely faster than anticipated), there is no way in hell the Rockets would sacrifice his playing time.

 

Yeah, I would like Simmons just for the opportunity to rehabilitate his value and trade him for better assets that it took to acquire him. But I also want Porter and Green to be getting 30-35 MPG to grow together as the two primary playmakers.

[SilasCoade 2622]

19 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

John Wall has been a good sport about all this, but you have to question his love of the game. He’s 31 years old and voluntarily sitting out 2 seasons when he’s healthy. 
 

If he wanted to play, he’d take 50 cents on the dollar and move on. Ball is not life. 

If you told me I'd get 50 million bucks to not have sex for two years I'd be in that monastery in a fucking heartbeat. Don't mean I don't like sex a lot. It's just a practical decision. It's not even selfish. That is generational wealth money.

[ChickenSandwich 9843]

6 hours ago, Llogg said:

If you told me I'd get 50 million bucks to not have sex for two years I'd be in that monastery in a fucking heartbeat. Don't mean I don't like sex a lot. It's just a practical decision. It's not even selfish. That is generational wealth money.

Yeah, forfeiting a guaranteed $25 million dollars seems like a non starter. Now, team wants to pay him in full up front?  Sure 10% discount. 

[tx 3 putt 77060]

2021 / 22 song : 

 

https://www.nba.com/rockets/lightthefuse

[Rockethorn1978 6093]

Who’s ready for some preseason basketballll..

 

I hate preseason 

[Js1 85407]

 

[wildcat09 29355]

I think the Bullets are shooting 100% from 3 in this game.

[UDontKnow 10447]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Not so fast!

Interesting if the Rockets outright waive Doumbouya for $3.6M. Essentially paying that much for a 2nd round pick? Well the Rockets are nearly $21M underneath the salary cap this year (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/houston-rockets/cap/), so they have room to play around.

[UDontKnow 10447]

26 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

Not so fast!

Interesting if the Rockets outright waive Doumbouya for $3.6M. Essentially paying that much for a 2nd round pick? Well the Rockets are nearly $21M underneath the salary cap this year (https://www.spotrac.com/nba/houston-rockets/cap/), so they have room to play around.

With the extra $110K, it brings up the total for that 2024 2nd round pick to a little over $3.7M.

EDIT: This move doesn't cost the Rockets extra because they're using a trade exception. This deal doesn't do much for the Rockets, but it provides the Nets some relief from the luxury tax.

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by UDontKnow