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Posted

OK, so here is the link to the sanctions. Can anyone show me where we prohibit the importation of food or medical supplies? 

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10715.pdf

Concerning CITGO. It was leveraged to the Russians as collateral for loans. The article is a bit dated, but Russia has not made the changes in asset ownership yet. CITGO does has a bit of infrastructure in the US, so it is an economic issue. 

State-owned Rosneft holds a 49.9 percent stake in Citgo as collateral for a loan last year of about $1.5 billion to the OPEC nation, which is reeling from low oil prices and a severe recession.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-rosneft-citgo-exclusive-idUSKBN1A52RN

 

 

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Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 7:45 PM, Iconoclast Texan said:

We’d be assuming our historical role ever since the late 19th century in helping to install a friendly government that advances our interests that would end the starvation in Venezuela. Whether you like it or not, we are the global superpower and hemispheric hegemon. We have a responsibility to the rest of the countries in the Americas to assist where we can in advancing liberal democracy, free enterprise and other American values. If the CIA can assist in any way with the logistics of coordinating an assassination of Maduro that is the most humane way of ending the strife in Venezuela and ending their people’s hunger. Long live President Guaidó. Seeing Maduro killed will have a cathartic effect for the Venezuelan people like it did for the Italians in stringing up Il Duce.

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That's adorable.

Posted

i just want to pop in to recognize @hpslugga and @Brisketexan for their thoughtful exchange of ideas. very refreshing, and it appears that they are much more in agreement than either previously thought. it's a great example of what this place COULD be. posreps all around.

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Posted

As the article from the WSJ clearly states, the opposition was divided and demoralized until the bold actions taken by Guaidó and his 4 allies.  hpslugga ideally what  you’re saying of having multilateral led negotiations mediated by the OAS would be ideal. As the article states, the opposition was paralyzed because of disputes over how best to fight Maduro. The people of Venezuela are ready and itching to have their version of storming the Bastille. I want our government to help make that a reality.

Posted

one thing that i think some of yall are overlooking comparing the relative strength of maduro supporters vs guaido supporters is the ~3 million people have left venezuela over the past couple of years. the VAST majority of those people would be supporting guiado. 

Posted (edited)
  On 2/7/2019 at 7:58 PM, hayden_horn said:

i just want to pop in to recognize @hpslugga and @Brisketexan for their thoughtful exchange of ideas. very refreshing, and it appears that they are much more in agreement than either previously thought. it's a great example of what this place COULD be. posreps all around.

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The reason why this is a good thread is that the nasty insult bomb throwers are not participating thankfully. I will let you figure out who I’m referring to.

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:07 PM, hayden_horn said:

one thing that i think some of yall are overlooking comparing the relative strength of maduro supporters vs guaido supporters is the ~3 million people have left venezuela over the past couple of years. the VAST majority of those people would be supporting guiado. 

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File that under the category of "Be Careful What You Wish For."

It is not clear at all that the majority of Venezuelans in Venezuela support Guaido.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 7:48 PM, InkaUtexas said:

OK, so here is the link to the sanctions. Can anyone show me where we prohibit the importation of food or medical supplies? 

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10715.pdf

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The sanctions are basically designed to cut Venezuela off from the international banking system - like a financial blockade.

  Quote

An even more problematic idea driving current U.S. policy is the belief that financial sanctions can hurt the Venezuelan government without causing serious harm to ordinary Venezuelans. That’s impossible when 95 percent of Venezuela’s export revenue comes from oil sold by the state-owned oil company. Cutting off the government’s access to dollars will leave the economy without the hard currency needed to pay for imports of food and medicine. Starving the Venezuelan economy of its foreign currency earnings risks turning the country’s current humanitarian crisis into a full-blown humanitarian catastrophe.

That’s what began to happen in 2017. Last year, Venezuela’s export revenues rose from $28 to $32 billion, buoyed by the recovery in world oil prices. Under normal conditions, a rise in a country’s exports would leave it with more resources to pay for its imports. But in the Venezuelan case, imports fell by 31 percent during the same year. The reason is that the country lost access to international financial markets. Unable to roll over its debt, it was forced to build up huge external surpluses to continue servicing that debt in a desperate attempt to avoid a default. Meanwhile, creditors threatened to seize the Venezuelan government’s remaining revenue sources if the country defaulted, including refineries located abroad and payments for oil shipments.

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https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/12/why-more-sanctions-wont-help-venezuela/

 

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 6:54 PM, Brisketexan said:

So, regional economic stability is not a valid interest - huh.  In a world where economics is perhaps the chief player (shit happens via economics/commerce, diplomacy, and warfare -- that's pretty much it).....that's an interesting take.  I mean, we can PRETEND that economic interests don't matter, but we'd be literally the only nation state on earth participating in that fantasy.

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It's intellectually dishonest, to say the least, to conflate the interests of CITGO with "regional economic stability". It is exactly the language used by people like Bolton and Abrams to promote such adventurism.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:30 PM, bad_teammate said:

It's intellectually dishonest, to say the least, to conflate the interests of CITGO with "regional economic stability". It is exactly the language used by people like Bolton and Abrams to promote such adventurism.

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So....it's disingenuous to account for an enterprise that 1) generates significant revenue (billions) for a large country in the hemisphere, 2) generates significant economic activity in our own country (also billions).....seriously, we can stop there.  My point is accurate regardless of what Bolton or Abrams may think.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:34 PM, Brisketexan said:

So....it's disingenuous to account for an enterprise that 1) generates significant revenue (billions) for a large country in the hemisphere, 2) generates significant economic activity in our own country (also billions).....seriously, we can stop there.  My point is accurate regardless of what Bolton or Abrams may think.

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Which one?

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:15 PM, David Dennison said:

File that under the category of "Be Careful What You Wish For."

It is not clear at all that the majority of Venezuelans in Venezuela support Guaido.

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This can't be serious. You're suggesting that a majority may still support the Maduro regime?

For some in this thread that advocate doing nothing, your thinking is a form of misguided nationalism imo. That political boundaries are somehow sacrosanct and it is immoral to involve ourselves in other country's affairs. I don't think that is defensible from either a theoretical or practical standpoint.

An alternate way of thinking that makes more sense to me is to recognize the increasingly interconnected global community, with aiding fellow human beings as the guiding principle instead of rigidly following political boundaries.

About a year ago, I checked Venezuela news and the headline was "Child gangs killing each other over rights to 'good' trash." I agree that the U.S. should not act unilaterally, but when a despot is starving his people, we should get involved. Especially when it is crystal clear that the Venezuelan people have no power to get rid of Maduro and their only option is to flee the country. There is a lot of room for debate on the right ways to help, most effective ways to help, whether help will have unintended consequences, etc. But to simply say "let them figure it out" is the wrong answer in my book.

I recognize that the devil may be in the details, and that the U.S. does not have a squeaky clean record meddling in other countries. But I think the debate should be over the proper ways, means, and motivations to help, not whether to help at all.

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Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:41 PM, bad_teammate said:

In a market situation unfettered by our sanctions and impositions, Citgo itself is entirely irrelevant to Venezuela's ability to profit from its oil reserves.

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nick-young-confused-face-300x256-nqlyaa.

Ummm.....you do know that Venezula doesn't operate solely through Citgo, right?  Citgo is quite important here in the US, and isn't irrelevant to Venezuela (so, overstatement on your part), but it also ain't the sole ballgame.

And, you're running away from the core point -- economics matter.  They always have, and they always will, in every place that isn't fantasy land.

Posted (edited)
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:41 PM, bad_teammate said:

In a market situation unfettered by our sanctions and impositions, Citgo itself is entirely irrelevant to Venezuela's ability to profit from its oil reserves.

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Do you understand that the deals big oil companies make internationally look a lot like oil and gas leases domestically -- the basic framework being that the oil companies take on the risk and cost to extract oil, and the mineral owners receive royalties for doing nothing? When Maduro reneged on leases to big oil, Venezuelan production dropped dramatically because they do not have the technology, equipment, and expertise to extract oil themselves. If an oil company is making money in another country, it is not by definition stealing natural resources. Unless there is corruption involved (big if) it is a contract where both sides benefit.

Edited by texastough
Posted

The US could have followed Mexico's and Uruguay's approach if they actually cared about the welfare of ordinary Venezuelans.  The fact that they chose economic warfare instead (and are now deliberating on authorization to use military force) shows that is plainly not what this is about. 

 

The US is now making up the most farcical reasons imaginable for justifying intervention.  Are we sure that Maduro is not in possession of WMDs?

 

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:46 PM, texastough said:

This can't be serious. You're suggesting that a majority may still support the Maduro regime?

For some in this thread that advocate doing nothing, your thinking is a form of misguided nationalism imo. That political boundaries are somehow sacrosanct and it is immoral to involve ourselves in other country's affairs. I don't think that is defensible from either a theoretical or practical standpoint.

An alternate way of thinking that makes more sense to me is to recognize the increasingly interconnected global community, with aiding fellow human beings as the guiding principle instead of rigidly following political boundaries.

About a year ago, I checked Venezuela news and the headline was "Child gangs killing each other over rights to 'good' trash." I agree that the U.S. should not act unilaterally, but when a despot is starving his people, we should get involved. Especially when it is crystal clear that the Venezuelan people have no power to get rid of Maduro and their only option is to flee the country. There is a lot of room for debate on the right ways to help, most effective ways to help, whether help will have unintended consequences, etc. But to simply say "let them figure it out" is the wrong answer in my book.

I recognize that the devil may be in the details, and that the U.S. does not have a squeaky clean record meddling in other countries. But I think the debate should be over the proper ways, means, and motivations to help, not whether to help at all.

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Tell us, who do the majority of Venezuelans support?

Posted

The nationalization of the oil industry started way before Maduro. Also Chavez fired most of the technical staff 15 years ago. Citgo is very important because they are the biggest refiner of Venezuelan crude. There ate only limited refineries around the world that can handle that type of crude.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 9:00 PM, David Dennison said:

Tell us, who do the majority of Venezuelans support?

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Instead of firing off cryptic one liners and answering questions with questions, why don't you show some support for your suggestion that they are still behind Maduro, or whatever you meant.

  • Like 5
Posted

ok cool, my bad

 

JFC

 

My belief based on virtually everything I have seen/read is that the vast majority of Venezuelans want a regime change. I don't know whether they would elect Guaido as president specifically, but getting rid of Maduro is the overriding goal. Guaido's stated goal is to serve in the interim only until free/fair elections can be held. Then, it will become clear who the "majority of Venezuelans in Venezuela support."  

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:56 PM, Fozzz said:

The US could have followed Mexico's and Uruguay's approach if they actually cared about the welfare of ordinary Venezuelans.  The fact that they chose economic warfare instead (and are now deliberating on authorization to use military force) shows that is plainly not what this is about. 

 

The US is now making up the most farcical reasons imaginable for justifying intervention.  Are we sure that Maduro is not in possession of WMDs?

 

 

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I object your honor.  Defense is clearly leading the witness....

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 9:13 PM, texastough said:

ok cool, my bad

 

JFC

 

My belief based on virtually everything I have seen/read is that the vast majority of Venezuelans want a regime change. I don't know whether they would elect Guaido as president specifically, but getting rid of Maduro is the overriding goal. Guaido's stated goal is to serve in the interim only until free/fair elections can be held. Then, it will become clear who the "majority of Venezuelans in Venezuela support."  

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Regardless of who they want to lead Venezuela, it's clear that they don't want the United States to intervene. It's also safe to say that they don't want sanctions that will harm everyday Venezuelans any more than they are already being harmed.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 9:30 PM, texastough said:

From the guy who posted the video asking our politicians whether we are meddling in Venezuela? So sorry if I don't take that at face value.

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And that's fine. But if you aren't going to take those numbers at face value, at least provide some of your own. 

Posted (edited)

WSJ’s coverage of the Venezuelan uprising has been top notch. Great summary of events that turned the richest country in South America to one in which the people are rummaging through garbage for food and starving as a result of Bolívarian socialism. Remember that whenever you confront socialists about true life examples like Venezuela they respond by saying it wasn’t done right in those countries. It can never be done right because it’s an amoral system that fails to account for the true nature of human behavior.

  Reveal hidden contents
Edited by Iconoclast Texan
Posted

In the last real elections, 2015, the opposition party won in a landslide. Then Maduro neutered the National Assembly and rigged the 2018 presidential election to the point where the opposition did not participate. And the average Venezuelan has lost 20 lbs while this has been going on. Its not that hard dude.

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 10:11 PM, Iconoclast Texan said:

WSJ’s coverage of the Venezuelan uprising has been top notch. Great summary of events that turned the riches country in South America to one in which the people are rummaging through garbage for food and starving as a result of Bolívarian socialism. Remember that whenever you confront socialists about true life is samples like Venezuela they respond by saying it wasn’t done right in those countries. It can never be done right because it’s an amoral system that fails to account for the true nature of human behavior.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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There are plenty of examples of socialism working. 

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 10:12 PM, texastough said:

In the last real elections, 2015, the opposition party won in a landslide. Then Maduro neutered the National Assembly and rigged the 2018 presidential election to the point where the opposition did not participate. And the average Venezuelan has lost 20 lbs while this has been going on. Its not that hard dude.

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Sounds like it's time for a revolution.

Let's watch.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 10:11 PM, Iconoclast Texan said:

WSJ’s coverage of the Venezuelan uprising has been top notch. Great summary of events that turned the richest country in South America to one in which the people are rummaging through garbage for food and starving as a result of Bolívarian socialism. Remember that whenever you confront socialists about true life examples like Venezuela they respond by saying it wasn’t done right in those countries. It can never be done right because it’s an amoral system that fails to account for the true nature of human behavior.

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Image result for what did i do mcnulty

  • Like 2
Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 10:13 PM, David Dennison said:

There are plenty of examples of socialism working. 

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Again, I wouldn't bother with this. The person you're quoting hasn't the foggiest idea what socialism is, and we've seen that over and over again from that group for years. Also, what hayden said earlier was correct: the idea that Venezuela is in any way a socialist society is a bad joke, so conceding that assertion in some sort of argument is utterly pointless. It's like starting a debate with "given that the moon is made of green cheese..."

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 10:59 PM, InkaUtexas said:

In Latin America? Africa? 

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Bolivia is the closest thing to democratic socialism in Latin America. Latin American socialism fails under totalitarian regimes, which says more about totalitarianism than socialism.

I don't know much about African socialism. My guess is that success or failure would depend on the type of government associated with the socialist policies.

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 9:30 PM, texastough said:

From the guy who posted the video asking our politicians whether we are meddling in Venezuela? So sorry if I don't take that at face value.

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Do you think Max Blumenthal conducted the poll himself?

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 11:57 PM, David Dennison said:

Bolivia is the closest thing to democratic socialism in Latin America. Latin American socialism fails under totalitarian regimes, which says more about totalitarianism than socialism.

I don't know much about African socialism. My guess is that success or failure would depend on the type of government associated with the socialist policies.

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In Africa it kind of worked in Ethiopia until it didn't. 

Posted
  On 2/7/2019 at 8:51 PM, Brisketexan said:

And, you're running away from the core point -- economics matter.  They always have, and they always will, in every place that isn't fantasy land.

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Who said economics don't matter? Of course they "matter". What the hell are you even trying to say?

Your argument is that we should starve the Venezuelan people until they support the installation of a leader/government that will enrich American business, yes? Be bold. Speak your truth.

Posted
  On 2/8/2019 at 5:12 AM, David Dennison said:

Wanna talk about the places where socialism works now?

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Sure, you got 30 seconds? Ya gonna bring up Burma? Oh, wait, no Mugabe's paradise. 

Look man, I am pulling my last associate out of Venezuela right now. You chat, I live this. 

f42.png

 

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