Things Not Going Well in Venezuela, 2.0

[Rimbo 25915]

47 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

As is the opinion of the UN Inspector, a man with a long and storied history of doing this exact thing all over the world for decades.

Lots of the world is a disaster area. The question isn't whether or not Venezuela is a good place to be, it's whether or not we should (1) invade it to change it or (2) try to start a civil war to change it.

Would Venezuela in the midst of a US-instigated Civil War be better than it is now?

I think you're asking the wrong questions. Whether or not we should start a civil war -- I don't think civil war will need our help to start, although ideally, the military throws its support behind Guaidó overwhelmingly and we avoid that. Should we invade? I don't think anyone reasonable is suggesting that we do.

The question before us is: should we (and other countries) officially recognize Guaidó as the acting president of Venezuela or not? And the answer, in my opinion, is "yes." We have done so, so have many other countries, and the countries that remain in support of Maduro are the sorts of countries you don't typically want to find yourself agreeing with.

And we have to acknowledge that this is already an affair with foreign involvements whether we partake in that process or not. If we do not also take a stand, we risk abandoing our interests and humanitarian interests in favor of the interests of our enemies. The Venezuelan people are going to be fucked in the near-term future no matter what we do. What we can do is work to ensure that in the ensuing chaos, we guard our own interests and try to make Venezuela's future brighter.

[bad_teammate 13192]

Just now, Rimbo said:

Whether or not we should start a civil war -- I don't think civil war will need our help to start, although ideally, the military throws its support behind Guaidó overwhelmingly and we avoid that.

That's the problem (well ONE of the many problems) with intervention: Once we've used our considerable power to instigate a civil war, which we already have with the humanitarian aid farce), it is impossible to legitimately claim a civil uprising against Maduro is legitimate and not astroturfed. It's already too late for that.

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Should we invade? I don't think anyone reasonable is suggesting that we do.

It's how interventionism constantly escalates in imperial policy-making. Put the frog in the pot, and slowly turn up the heat. Only a handful of the instigators have to even know what's happening. Once you've convinced yourself that the Bad Guy NEEDS to be taken out, it's a natural progression.

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The question before us is: should we (and other countries) officially recognize Guaidó as the acting president of Venezuela or not? And the answer, in my opinion, is "yes." We have done so, so have many other countries, and the countries that remain in support of Maduro are the sorts of countries you don't typically want to find yourself agreeing with.

Is the Constitutionality of Guaido's supposed presidency still relevant? Isn't the 30 days over?

Besides, we already recognized him. That's not what is going to change things. What's going to change things is us starving the population into a civil war.

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And we have to acknowledge that this is already an affair with foreign involvements whether we partake in that process or not. If we do not also take a stand, we risk abandoing our interests and humanitarian interests in favor of the interests of our enemies.

 

And there it is.

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The Venezuelan people are going to be fucked in the near-term future no matter what we do. What we can do is work to ensure that in the ensuing chaos, we guard our own interests and try to make Venezuela's future brighter.

Yep.

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I think you're asking the wrong questions.

It's not that they're the "wrong" questions, they're just the questions you don't want to answer.

[Rimbo 25915]

I don't want to answer them because the premises behind them are false. I don't want to answer the question "Have you stopped beating your wife?" either, and it's not because I don't want to answer; it's because the question assumes I was beating my wife in the first place, so there is no valid answer for me to give.

It's like asking what would the correct ignition timing be on a 1955 Bel Air Chevrolet with a 327 cubic-inch engine and a four-barrel carburetor.

They're the wrong questions because they're based on a number of invalid premises.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Rimbo

[bad_teammate 13192]

Just now, Rimbo said:

I don't want to answer them because the premises behind them are false.

Nah...

Would Venezuela in the midst of a US-instigated Civil War be better than it is now?

It's a theoretical. Nothing about it is based on a false premise. At some point, when you're thinking about your escalating stages of foreign intervention, you should think about the actual results of the intervention and not just the moralistic outrage that fuels the fire of interventionism.

[Rimbo 25915]

The "false premise" is the "US-instigated" part.

[bad_teammate 13192]

54 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

The "false premise" is the "US-instigated" part.

How is a theoretical civil war instigated by the US a false premise? It's a theoretical. There's no such thing as a "false" premise in a theoretical. You can say it's unreasonable or unrealistic, but it can't be "false" in a theory.

There's not even a civil war happening right now, so it's not like I'm saying there is a civil war going on that was instigated by the US.

Let's see if we can walk this down a simple path...

- In the past, has the US instigated civil wars in other nations?

[Rimbo 25915]

Who, besides you, cares about your stupid hypothetical? There's enough bullshit on the internet already. Let's try and focus on what's actually happening right now and what the right action in regards to it is. Yes, let's learn from history, but make sure you learn the right lessons and take all the things that are going on into account.

When I talk about other foreign powers influencing the place, the place being a disaster area, I'm trying to describe what's actually happening, not some lame internet troll bullshit hypothetical.

If I wanted to waste time with hypotheticals in foreign policy, I'd go jerk off to a photo of Condoleeza Rice, not dream up fantastical weird scenarios with YOU.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Rimbo

[David Dennison 18851]

7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Who, besides you, cares about your stupid hypothetical? There's enough bullshit on the internet already. Let's try and focus on what's actually happening right now and what the right action in regards to it is. Yes, let's learn from history, but make sure you learn the right lessons and take all the things that are going on into account.

When I talk about other foreign powers influencing the place, the place being a disaster area, I'm trying to describe what's actually happening, not some lame internet troll bullshit hypothetical.

If I wanted to waste time with hypotheticals in foreign policy, I'd go jerk off to a photo of Condoleeza Rice, not dream up fantastical weird scenarios with YOU.

How does the opposition propose flipping the military?

[Rimbo 25915]

Well, right now, the military seem to be defecting in the face of Maduro ordering the blockade of the humanitarian aid we sent. That does not seem to be as effective as Maduro bribing the top brass at this time. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/venezuela-crisis/venezuela-soldiers-who-choose-defection-hope-more-join-their-ranks-n976336 

[bad_teammate 13192]

2 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Who, besides you, cares about your stupid hypothetical?

~*~*~*~* 1 hour later *~*~*~*~

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

Well, right now, the military seem to be defecting in the face of Maduro ordering the blockade of the humanitarian aid we sent. That does not seem to be as effective as Maduro bribing the top brass at this time. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/venezuela-crisis/venezuela-soldiers-who-choose-defection-hope-more-join-their-ranks-n976336 

Man, it's almost like two truckloads of aid being mysteriously set on fire on the Columbian side by guys with molotovs wasn't really about helping the people of Venezuelan people.

VERY VERY STRANGE

[Rimbo 25915]

There's no mystery about it. The Venezuelan army did it, with Maduro's blessing at the least, if not his direct command.

Also, highlighting my comments about pursuing American interests... you do understand that if we aren't working to secure our interests, we're abandoning it for Russia and China to pursue theirs? Yes, it'd be nice if everyone left Venezuela to the Venezuelans, but that's not something that happens when you're dealing with a failed state. We'll either get some semblance of democracy that helps us a little, or a continuing dictatorship that helps Russia and China a lot. The shit's up for grabs, now.

I mean... isn't one of the main reasons we're pissed at Trump is because the Russians wanted him to be president to destabilize us? Pick a side: Do you want Russia to succeed in pursuing its interests in this hemisphere, or don't you?

[bad_teammate 13192]

7 hours ago, Rimbo said:

There's no mystery about it. The Venezuelan army did it, with Maduro's blessing at the least, if not his direct command.

And the video of molotov cocktails on the Columbian side being thrown directly at the trucks and then the trucks catching fire?

Your position is that the Maduro government paid opposition protesters on the Columbian side to do this? Why? To what end?

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Also, highlighting my comments about pursuing American interests... you do understand that if we aren't working to secure our interests, we're abandoning it for Russia and China to pursue theirs? Yes, it'd be nice if everyone left Venezuela to the Venezuelans, but that's not something that happens when you're dealing with a failed state.

Ah yes, the "hey, someone ELSE is going to rape this girl, so we might as well, too!" defense. Love it.

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We'll either get some semblance of democracy that helps us a little, or a continuing dictatorship that helps Russia and China a lot. The shit's up for grabs, now.

I asked above and none of you interventionists answered, and you still won't, but... how? Please tell me how a US-fomented civil war in Venezuela leads to a better democracy than what they have under Maduro. Pretty please, with sugar on top, tell me the story of the civil war and post civil war.

Things to keep in mind:
- Tens of millions of people know the aid truck fire was a Gulf of Tonkin
- Millions of Venezuelans do not support Guaido, did not see him as an option for president, and don't care how many American politicians want him
- Civil Wars tend to kill lots of people and create a lot of bad blood

But go on. Spin me a yarn, please.

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I mean... isn't one of the main reasons we're pissed at Trump is because the Russians wanted him to be president to destabilize us? Pick a side: Do you want Russia to succeed in pursuing its interests in this hemisphere, or don't you?

I don't care about Russia. Russia's economy is smaller than some of our state economies. You're confusing me for Hugo.

I wasn't a Red Scare guy even with the Red Scare was real. You think I'm one now that their empire fell apart and they're a rapidly declining thugocracy? lol right

[EMAWesome 101]

On 2/25/2019 at 8:55 PM, bad_teammate said:

Maduro sucks.

 

Before we do anything about Maduro let's first give Jim Acosta a chance to interview him.  At least then maybe he would understand what a government threat to a free press actually is.

[Huckleberry 32850]

Listen, @bad_teammate, this is a complicated situation and I actually do see the logic in both sides of the end result positions. But that's a lot more complicated topic I don't have time for right now. What I do have time for is to tell you that if you spell it Columbian just one more time I'm going to have to neg you. I mean the irony of someone arguing in favor of Latin American self-governance with zero American intervention but then spelling it Columbian instead of Colombian is rich as hell and I enjoy it, but enough is enough.

Have a blessed day.

[Rimbo 25915]

3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Ah yes, the "hey, someone ELSE is going to rape this girl, so we might as well, too!" defense. Love it.

No, it's the "They will rape her if we don't protect her" stance, and your position is essentially leaving her to be raped by known rapists, while assuming that we, also, will do raping.

We may rape sometimes, but we save. And we save more than we rape.

[bernorange 8359]

1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

... We may rape sometimes, but we save. And we save more than we rape.

Cops are actually committing sexual assaults on duty so I thank God that this is what passes for a controversy in Austin, Texas.

[bad_teammate 13192]

3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

No, it's the "They will rape her if we don't protect her" stance, and your position is essentially leaving her to be raped by known rapists, while assuming that we, also, will do raping.

We may rape sometimes, but we save. And we save more than we rape.

So our exploitation of their natural resources for our economic interest is both cool and good, but their exploitation of Venezuela's national resources for their economic interest is lame and bad?

Makes sense lol

(And you didn't discuss how a civil war would improve Venezuela's democracy... of course.)

[sidis 9825]

6 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Listen, @bad_teammate, this is a complicated situation and I actually do see the logic in both sides of the end result positions. But that's a lot more complicated topic I don't have time for right now. What I do have time for is to tell you that if you spell it Columbian just one more time I'm going to have to neg you. I mean the irony of someone arguing in favor of Latin American self-governance with zero American intervention but then spelling it Columbian instead of Colombian is rich as hell and I enjoy it, but enough is enough. 

Have a blessed day.

[Rimbo 25915]

49 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

So our exploitation of their natural resources for our economic interest is both cool and good, but their exploitation of Venezuela's national resources for their economic interest is lame and bad?

Makes sense lol

(And you didn't discuss how a civil war would improve Venezuela's democracy... of course.)

Uhmmmm... yes? Because if they do it for their benefit, it's bad for both Venezuela and for us. Duh.

And I didn't discuss it for the reasons I've said over and over again. It's a stupid hypothetical.

You don't seem to be able to discuss this very intelligently. I'm done trying.

[bad_teammate 13192]

3 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Uhmmmm... yes? Because if they do it for their benefit, it's bad for both Venezuela and for us. Duh.

But if we do it for our benefit, it's good for Venezuela?

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And I didn't discuss it for the reasons I've said over and over again. It's a stupid hypothetical.

You don't seem to be able to discuss this very intelligently. I'm done trying.

Yes, you and Huckleberry, far too busy!

"I have a devastating and clear case I COULD present, but I am simply too important to be bothered!"

*shuffles a bunch of empty pages around on a desk*

"Work! Work! Work!"

[Rimbo 25915]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

But if we do it for our benefit, it's good for Venezuela?

I will explain this to you. I will explain one more time. I will use very small words, to help you understand.

Russia and China will use Venezuela. This will be good for them. They are bad guys. This will be bad for us. This will be bad for Venezuela.

We can stop Russia and China. We can use Venezuela. This will be good for us.This will be bad for the bad guys. This will be bad for Venezuela.

Either way, things are bad for Venezuela. We cannot stop bad things from happening to Venezuela. The bad guys are going to use Venezuela if we do not stop them.

Also, if we use Venezuela, we may be less bad for them. See what China does in Africa. See what Russia does everywhere. We are all bad for Venezuela. Russia and China are worse for Venezuela.

We must think of what is best for us. We cannot help Venezuela. They are in a bad place. If we use Venezuela, we might make it better. If Russia and China use Venezuela, they will not try to make it better.

It does not matter that Russia is weak. They can still hurt Venezuela. They can hurt Venezuela very badly. They will use what they get to hurt us. China is not weak. They will also use what they get to hurt us.

Sometimes this is hard to understand. You can ask Mommy and Daddy to help explain things to you. Mommy and Daddy are smart. You are smart when you ask Mommy and Daddy things when you don't understand. It's good to ask questions.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Rimbo

[Rimbo 25915]

9 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Yes, you and Huckleberry, far too busy!

"I have a devastating and clear case I COULD present, but I am simply too important to be bothered!"

*shuffles a bunch of empty pages around on a desk*

"Work! Work! Work!"

Mommy and Daddy have jobs. Mommy and Daddy cannot spend hours posting on the internet. We will try to answer your questions. You must not pester Mommy and Daddy. Mommy and Daddy are very busy.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Rimbo

[bad_teammate 13192]

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

We can use Venezuela. This will be good for us.This will be bad for the bad guys. This will be bad for Venezuela.Either way, things are bad for Venezuela. We cannot stop bad things from happening to Venezuela.

~*~*~ 4 hours ago ~*~*~

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No, it's the "They will rape her if we don't protect her" stance, and your position is essentially leaving her to be raped by known rapists, while assuming that we, also, will do raping. 

lol yep

Edited February 27, 2019 by bad_teammate

[bad_teammate 13192]

1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

Mommy and Daddy have jobs. Mommy and Daddy cannot spend hours posting on the internet. We will try to answer your questions. You must not pester Mommy and Daddy. Mommy and Daddy are very busy.

Posting on the Internet to tell everyone how I'm too important and cool and necessary to post on the Internet.

7D Chess

[Rimbo 25915]

*plonk*

[bad_teammate 13192]

Come on, man, you gotta pay your crisis actors!

 

[bad_teammate 13192]

An absolutely shocking turn of events. Just... just shocking.

Venezuela: Juan Guaido will open up oil deals to foreign private companies, opposition leader’s US envoy says

[suddenly shaggy 929]

They need to. They fired all their own experienced people, then kicked the West out and cancelled their contracts losing that expertise. This fucked their industry up colossally. They are going to have to import people from somewhere that know what the fuck they are doing to get the industry restarted. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/05/07/how-venezuela-ruined-its-oil-industry/#6c6f9db7399d

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How Venezuela Ruined Its Oil Industry

Robert Rapier

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (C) talks after the official announcement of the decree calling for the rewrite of the constitution at the CNE in Caracas on May 3, 2017. FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images

Venezuela is a country in crisis. Protesters that are opposed to the socialist government are being killed, and Venezuelan citizens are starving to death. A humanitarian disaster is unfolding that has been in the making for years.

But how can it be that the country with the world's largest proved oil reserves can't afford to feed its people? The current crisis can be traced to the historical management of the country's oil industry.

Wasted Potential

Look at the evolution of Venezuela's oil reserves and production since 1980:

Venezuelan oil production versus proved reservesRobert Rapier

Venezuela's highest-ever oil production occurred in 1998 at 3.5 million barrels per day (BPD). That also happened to be the year that Hugo Chávez was elected president of Venezuela. During the Venezuelan general strike of 2002–2003, Chávez fired 19,000 employees of the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and replaced them with employees loyal to his government.

This eliminated a tremendous amount of experience from Venezuela's oil industry. Most of Venezuela's proved oil reserves consists of extra-heavy crude oil in the Orinoco Belt. The Orinoco contains an estimated 1.2 trillion barrels of oil resource. This oil is expensive to produce, but after oil prices climbed to $100/bbl, 235 billion barrels of this heavy oil were moved into the "proved reserves" category. This positioned Venezuela ahead of Saudi Arabia as the country with the world's largest proved oil reserves.

Because this oil is particularly challenging to produce, Venezuela invited international oil companies into the country to participate in the development of these reserves. Companies like ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, Total and ConocoPhillips invested billions of dollars in technology and infrastructure to turn the extra-heavy oil into crude oil exports.  

What most people do not understand about the oil industry is that it is extremely capital intensive. When oil prices rise, oil companies may indeed reap billions of dollars in profits. But reaping that reward required billions of dollars in capital investments, and if oil prices decline it can quickly turn into billions of dollars of losses. This is the key to understanding what has gone wrong in Venezuela. 

The Government Gets Greedy

In 2007 oil prices were on the rise, and the Chávez government sought more revenue as the investments made by the international oil companies began to pay off. Venezuela demanded changes to the agreements made by the international oil companies that would give PDVSA majority control of the projects. Total, Chevron, Statoil and BP agreed and retained minority interests in their Venezuelan projects. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips refused, and as a result, their assets were expropriated. (A World Bank arbitration panel has ruled against Venezuela in both expropriation cases, but the country continues to appeal the decisions).

So there are primarily two related causes that have resulted in the steep decline of Venezuela's oil production, despite the sharp increase in the country's proved reserves. The first is the removal of expertise required to develop the country's heavy oil. This started with the firing of PDVSA employees in 2003 and continued with pushing international expertise out of the country in 2007.

Second, the Chávez government failed to appreciate the level of capital expenditures required to continue developing the country's oil. This was in no small part due to inexperience among the Chávez loyalists that were now running PDVSA, but it may not have mattered in any case. When oil prices were high, Chávez saw billions of dollars that could be siphoned to fund the country's social programs, and that's exactly what he did. But he failed to reinvest adequately in this capital-intensive industry.

I explicitly warned about this in an article I wrote in 2007:

So, can Chávez under-invest in the industry while diverting money to his pet causes? He can for a while, but you can see the results. Despite having enormous oil reserves, he and his cronies are running Venezuela’s oil industry right into the ground. His generosity to the poor has only been possible because he had a goose that laid golden eggs because they constantly reinvested money back into the business. Once he kills the goose, where is he going to get the money to continue his programs?

That warning was prescient. Following the firing of the PDVSA employees in 2003, there was an initial steep decline in the country's oil production below 3 million BPD. Then Venezuela's oil production recovered back to the 3.3 million BPD level from 2004 to 2006. But since 2007 oil production there has been on a steep decline, despite oil prices that were regularly above $100/bbl. In 2015 Venezuela's oil production had fallen to 2.6 million BPD, a decrease of more than 20% below 2006 levels. By comparison, the U.S. has oil reserves of less than 20% of Venezuela's, yet U.S. oil production rose by 86% from 2006 to 2015.

Note I am certainly not arguing against a country using its oil reserves to benefit its citizens. But Norway provides a case in point of how this can be done responsibly. The problem with Venezuela's approach was that it extracted too much from the industry, which sacrificed its ability to continue to grow its production.

Conclusions

Events in Venezuela continue to unfold, but it's hard to imagine that the oil industry there can recover without significant reinvestment. Venezuela is one of the OPEC members that has pushed the hardest for production cuts in recent years, as it desperately needs higher oil prices not only to fund further oil industry development but to use those revenues to pay for basic needs of the Venezuelan people.

Venezuela remains one of the world's ten largest oil producers, but its position has slipped in recent years. Should the situation there continue to deteriorate, it will likely further negatively impact the country's oil production. Ironically, because of Venezuela's global importance as an oil exporter, further deterioration there could push world oil prices higher -- but that's a scenario the current Maduro government is desperately seeking to avoid.

Edited March 2, 2019 by suddenly shaggy

[bad_teammate 13192]

Is that a decision a supposedly "interim" president who is just there until free and fair elections can be held should be making? Of course not, that's a decision to be made by a popularly elected leadership.

Also, Venezuela DOES work with outside oil firms. It does not, however, cede the controlling stake.

That is what this unelected, illegitimate "interim" president plans to do, however.

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Currently, Venezuela’s socialist government has requirements that Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) keep a controlling stake in any joint ventures with other energy companies. 

But Carlos Vecchio, a representative for National Assembly leader Mr Guaido, who has been recognised by the US as the interim leader of Venezuela, told Bloomberg Mr Guaido's government would look to open up the economy to increase oil production.

“The majority of the oil production that we want to increase will be with the private sector,” he said on Monday.

They are right here saying the quiet part loud. This is the most above-board and out-in-the-open foreign-instigated coup and civil war incitement we've ever done in Latin America. Back in the 80s and 90s we wouldn't say this stuff out loud. We cranks would say, "This is what they're doing and why they're doing it" and the brain geniuses would say "you're paranoid". Now they're just fucking telling us out in the open and the brain geniuses are still refusing to see what's obvious.

 

[Parliament 14249]

7 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

They need to. They fired all their own experienced people, then kicked the West out and cancelled their contracts losing that expertise. This fucked their industry up colossally. They are going to have to import people from somewhere that know what the fuck they are doing to get the industry restarted. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/05/07/how-venezuela-ruined-its-oil-industry/#6c6f9db7399d

Yeah, it's a bad look, but probably their only choice.

[Trey3216 15345]

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

Yeah, it's a bad look, but probably their only choice.

Their only choice was to bankrupt their #1 national asset and pilfer any and all revenues into the pockets of their illegitimate president and his protectors?

[Parliament 14249]

I'm talking about after the fact. Now. Their oil industry is in shambles all their oil people are gone. License to the multi-nationals or slowly build it up your self.

[bad_teammate 13192]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I'm talking about after the fact. Now. Their oil industry is in shambles all their oil people are gone. License to the multi-nationals or slowly build it up your self.

Or work with multinationals while retaining the controlling stake and preserving the people of Venezuela's ownership of their own natural resources. Literally no one is arguing that there should be no multinational involvement, not even Chavez.

This coup is simply an attempt to install someone who will give ultimate control of Venezuela's oil reserves to private multinationals.

They are telling us this out loud. They used to try to pretend that wasn't happening.

[suddenly shaggy 929]

Chavez fucked the multi-nationals and fucked his own country in the process. If Venezuela wants to resume profitably extracting and refining their oil, they are going to have to have multi-nationals do it. Venezuela does not have the expertise and that is entirely self-inflicted. 

[hpslugga 4058]

2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Or work with multinationals while retaining the controlling stake and preserving the people of Venezuela's ownership of their own natural resources. Literally no one is arguing that there should be no multinational involvement, not even Chavez.

This coup is simply an attempt to install someone who will give ultimate control of Venezuela's oil reserves to private multinationals.

They are telling us this out loud. They used to try to pretend that wasn't happening.

Exactly. They would claim either “self-defense” or that we were “defending them from internal aggression.”

This is sort of like when Vince McMahon just removed the facade of wrestling at least appearing somewhat legitimate and being out front with the reality that they were fixed.

[TwiceHorn 31440]

On 2/27/2019 at 3:24 PM, Rimbo said:

Mommy and Daddy have jobs. Mommy and Daddy cannot spend hours posting on the internet. We will try to answer your questions. You must not pester Mommy and Daddy. Mommy and Daddy are very busy.

B_t's attempt to slag Huck is hilarious inasmuch as he trails possibly only futureman as a drive-by poster.

[NowThis 931]

11 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

B_t's attempt to slag Huck is hilarious inasmuch as he trails possibly only futureman as a drive-by poster.

although misspelling is only a high crime in CR.

[bad_teammate 13192]

2 hours ago, suddenly shaggy said:

Chavez fucked the multi-nationals and fucked his own country in the process. If Venezuela wants to resume profitably extracting and refining their oil, they are going to have to have multi-nationals do it. Venezuela does not have the expertise and that is entirely self-inflicted. 

Who disagrees with this?

Who are you talking to? What are you talking about?

The issue isn't working with multi-nationals, the issue is giving ultimate control and ownership to the multi-nationals. You do understand the distinction, right?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4975]

At this point I'm not sure there are any multinational oil companies worth a damn willing to do any business there unless they have a controlling interest. And even then that controlling interest might just be dust in the wind. You reap what you sow.

[bad_teammate 13192]

And if that's the case, let the people vote on leaders who will make that determination.

[softlynow 1813]

24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

And if that's the case, let the people vote on leaders who will make that determination.

Sounds like your beef is with the Guaido government-in-waiting. And said interim government appears to want to make the case for becoming the next elected government by taking steps now to improve the lives of its constituents. That or securing cash/clout to take permanent power via extra-legal means. Either way, in order to deter Guaido from his course we’d likely have to intervene militarily. 

[bad_teammate 13192]

1 hour ago, softlynow said:

And said interim government appears to want to make the case for becoming the next elected government by taking steps now to improve the lives of its constituents.

This is actually pretty good spin. Holy shit, that's so good it's scary.

"It's for your own good."

Quote

That or securing cash/clout to take permanent power via extra-legal means. Either way, in order to deter Guaido from his course we’d likely have to intervene militarily. 

Guaido only declared himself president after Pence told him to (Wall Street Journal, communist pro-Maduro propaganda, I know). Guaido has no popular support and this entire farce is 100% the result of Western interference.

Edited March 3, 2019 by bad_teammate

[GHOSTUSER 361]

President Guaidó is back in Caracas today and was greeted by throngs of supporters. Maduro has been made to look like the chump that he us. I hope another humanitarian convoy at the border is going to be organized. The back is about to break for the socialist government.

Having flouted a government travel ban by leaving the country more than a week earlier, Mr. Guaidó arrived at the Caracas airport on a commercial flight from Panama and calmly walked through immigration, emerging to deafening cheers from hundreds of supporters who chanted, “Yes, we can!” and waved Venezuelan flags. 

“We know the risks that we face,” a smiling Mr. Guaidó told reporters before heading outside and waving to supporters from the roof of an SUV that whisked him off to a rally. “We are stronger than ever before … We are going to end the usurpation in Venezuela very soon.”

what a fucking badass. Flies commercial and goes through immigration without issue. That took guts andnce again he is showing incredible leadership skills. We need to do everything in our power to help him. He is the legitimate President of Venezuela. The EU is ready to slap Maduro hard too. Except for scumbag governments like Iran, Cuba and Russia, Maduro has zero support internationally.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Iconoclast Texan

[Brisketexan 105082]

On 3/3/2019 at 9:13 AM, bad_teammate said:

Guaido has no popular support

That's just flat-out false.  Seriously, come on, man.  Nevermind what you can see in general reporting, hell, I was just visiting with one of my son's friends last night who is the kid of two Venezuelan immigrants.  His whole family is back in Venezuela.  They talk regularly.  Many of them are in the Guaido camp.  And many of them are in the Maduro camp -- there is definitely division.  But "no popular support?"  What bullshit.

[bad_teammate 13192]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's just flat-out false.  Seriously, come on, man.  Nevermind what you can see in general reporting, hell, I was just visiting with one of my son's friends last night who is the kid of two Venezuelan immigrants.  His whole family is back in Venezuela.  They talk regularly.  Many of them are in the Guaido camp.  And many of them are in the Maduro camp -- there is definitely division.  But "no popular support?"  What bullshit.

As time goes on, he will have supporters as he stands in opposition to a bad leader and gets international press coverage and boost from the world's wealthiest and most powerful nations, but that's not how any of this started.

There was no nationwide, grassroots movement to have him announce himself. He literally announced himself after talking on the phone with Mike Pence and getting assurance of US support. His rise, wherever it may go, is 100% attributable to the influence and power of the United States. The National Security Adviser is regularly threatening military invasion every few days.

It's an astroturf project.

[ryskey 447]

On 3/2/2019 at 4:37 PM, bad_teammate said:

The issue isn't working with multi-nationals, the issue is giving ultimate control and ownership to the multi-nationals. You do understand the distinction, right?

Has there been any discussion/rumor/whatever on what a Guaido-led government would do with PdVSA?  Or is this just the fear?  Curious if you've seen anything.

The State has control of the minerals.  The US is the only major oil-producing nation in which private entities own the minerals.  Ownership of minerals implies ownership and control (directly or indirectly) of the revenue.  A multinational will need to abide by the rules of the lease or concession.  That multinational might have day-to-day operational control, but ultimate control and ownership still resides with the state.  See Equinor (Statoil) and the dozens of companies producing oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf.  See also: US Federal leases.  The government can dictate any number of things it deems important.  In order to justify the capital outlay, those multinationals can bid on the revenue interest from the oil it expects to produce.   

 

If you're afraid of a corrupt puppet government awarding no-bid contracts and leases to well-connected multinationals, then ok.  But that's exactly what Maduro did with Russia and China. 

[bad_teammate 13192]

29 minutes ago, ryskey said:

If you're afraid of a corrupt puppet government awarding no-bid contracts and leases to well-connected multinationals, then ok.  But that's exactly what Maduro did with Russia and China. 

Yes and Yes.

I don't like the idea of fomenting civil war so we can have our version of Maduro.

[ryskey 447]

That's fair.  Though the world would have the new PdVSA under a microscope.  I wouldn't put anything past the Trump admin, but any multinational acting in its own long-term best interests would not risk the political backlash of being the recipient of the first no-bid contract from PdVSA.  Those days are still fresh enough in the memory of Latin Americans, and that playbook is a little too Cold War-ish for modern American multinationals.  

Modern Colombia (EcoPetrol), Brazil (Petrobras), Argentina (YPF) offer good market-friendly templates in the Statoil/Equinor mold that simultaneously attract foreign capital and create a lot of revenue to fund social programs.  They're certainly corrupt in their own ways but nothing like how things were in the 70's and 80's.  Bolivia (YPFB) and Mexico (PeMex) offer a bit more, umm... Bolivarian alternatives that are probably a bit too close to the current state of things id PdVSA.  There's a lot of revenue left on the table every year as that model is very prone to eating its own seed corn and buying popular support to the detriment of the long-term sustainability of the national oil companies.  Listing on the New York Stock Exchange has a way of creating transparency and accountability that would otherwise be difficult to enforce.

[bad_teammate 13192]

2 minutes ago, ryskey said:

That's fair.  Though the world would have the new PdVSA under a microscope.  I wouldn't put anything past the Trump admin, but any multinational acting in its own long-term best interests would not risk the political backlash of being the recipient of the first no-bid contract from PdVSA.  Those days are still fresh enough in the memory of Latin Americans, and that playbook is a little too Cold War-ish for modern American multinationals.  

This is my EXTREMELY SKEPTICAL face.

I think it would be helpful overall if whoever was going to be involved subjected their ventures to international oversight to ensure transparency.

Quote

Modern Colombia (EcoPetrol), Brazil (Petrobras), Argentina (YPF) offer good market-friendly templates in the Statoil/Equinor mold that simultaneously attract foreign capital and create a lot of revenue to fund social programs.  They're certainly corrupt in their own ways but nothing like how things were in the 70's and 80's.  Bolivia (YPFB) and Mexico (PeMex) offer a bit more, umm... Bolivarian alternatives that are probably a bit too close to the current state of things id PdVSA.  There's a lot of revenue left on the table every year as that model is very prone to eating its own seed corn and buying popular support to the detriment of the long-term sustainability of the national oil companies.  Listing on the New York Stock Exchange has a way of creating transparency and accountability that would otherwise be difficult to enforce.

Despite the attempt to brand me as a Maduro-loving swamp Maoist, the ideal scenario is international economic cooperation in which the resources are controlled by the people of Venezuela and the profits from the exploitation of those resources go to the benefit and good of the people of Venezuela.

[ryskey 447]

Quote

Despite the attempt to brand me as a Maduro-loving swamp Maoist, the ideal scenario is international economic cooperation in which the resources are controlled by the people of Venezuela and the profits from the exploitation of those resources go to the benefit and good of the people of Venezuela.

Noble, but not realistic.  Where is the capital to maintain, much less grow PdVSA oil revenues, going to come from?  The IMF?  Who is going to oversee and efficiently deploy that capital?  Rump ex-Chavez/Maduro PdVSA?  Not going to happen without new leadership and a massive influx of talent, most of which currently resides in the United States.  Not in a million years is that a credit-worthy investment, not even under the most dove-ish IMF/World Bank leadership.