Things Not Going Well in Venezuela, 2.0

[David Dennison 18855]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

It should have, but it didn't. 

And Ortega should die from Face Aids for what he did, and continues to do, in his country. You ever seen a bus blown up from a land mine laid by the FMLN? Ever seen Nicaraguan MI-24' shooting 57mm rockets into a convoy? I have. 

 

I don't disagree with your point on Ortega.

But Ronald Reagan blatantly broke the law and should have been removed from office.

[texastough 1129]

6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Chavez and Maduro are kleptocrats, no doubt, I'm just pointing out that you saying Maduro puts every other kleptocrat to shame is laughable.

Its not me saying it dude. There are articles all over the place saying this. You keep minimizing it but don't point to anything, which is why I think you just believe what you want to believe because you don't like the U.S. meddling. 

And to me, what puts him on the level of the worst dictators is not just that he stole a shitton of money, its that at the same time he has completely ignored what he is doing to his people. Three million Venezuelans have fled the country. Gangs of children killing each other over rights to "quality trash." Its not that different than genocide in my book.  

Edited May 9, 2019 by texastough
typos

[DDD Dad 14335]

2 minutes ago, texastough said:

Its not me saying it dude. There are articles all over the place saying this. You keep minimizing it but don't point to anything, which is why I think you just believe what you want to believe because you don't like the U.S. meddling. 

And to me, what puts him on the level of the worst dictators is not just that he stole a shitton of money, its that at the same time he has completely ignored what he is doing to his people. Three million Venezuelans have fled the country. Gangs of children killing each other over rights to "quality trash." Its not that different than genocide in my book.  

Don't forget that he has refused to allow food and supplies across the border.

[texastough 1129]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Don't forget that he has refused to allow food and supplies across the border.

I mean, I could go on and on and cite a gazillion articles but I don't want to longcat the thread responding to BT. I'm really here looking for fresh news about what's happening down there now.

[tx 3 putt 76913]

Maduro is hanging tough. Are the Russians propping his whole regime up ?  I'll guess key generals are getting nice payouts 

[hpslugga 4058]

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Maduro is hanging tough. Are the Russians propping his whole regime up ?  I'll guess key generals are getting nice payouts 

One thing that helps an opposition succeed in a revolution is popular support inside the country. Guaido doesn’t have that.   

It’s funny that the Reagan-Nicaragua nightmare was mentioned because this is a virtual replay of that in its infant stages.

-The government is led by someone that we don’t like because we’re finnicky and neurotic like that.

-Our government portrays potential actions in that country as humanitarian when they’re nothing of the sort.

-There’s vast lying/distortion/exaggeration about the government

-We support a faction that has virtually no popular support inside the country (largely because they have zero political programs, at least not ones that would benefit the population more than the status quo)

-That failure to build a popular base invariably yields to overall operational failure 

Edited May 9, 2019 by hpslugga

[texastough 1129]

2 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

One thing that helps an opposition succeed in a revolution is popular support inside the country. Guaido doesn’t have that. 

What are you basing that on? The most reliable estimates I've seen say 80% want to oust Maduro.

[hpslugga 4058]

2 minutes ago, texastough said:

What are you basing that on? The most reliable estimates I've seen say 80% want to oust Maduro.

1. What estimates are these?

2. That doesn’t mean they support Guaido

[hayden_horn 11362]

4 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

One thing that helps an opposition succeed in a revolution is popular support inside the country. Guaido doesn’t have that. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/americas/2019/05/venezuela-colectivos-190506163125345.html

having a paramilitary pseudo-police group helps. totally democratic.

Quote

Caracas, Venezuela - Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido arrived at a rally of several hundred waiting supporters last month in San Bernardino, a middle-class Caracas neighbourhood. 

The stage where Guaido was set to speak was at the bottom of a long narrow street, where men, women and children had gathered. 

Not long after Guaido arrived, tear gas engulfed the area, thrown by masked and heavily armed civilians on motorcycles.

From the stage, an organiser appealed to the crowd to crouch down, stay calm and not run, especially given the large number of elderly people and children there.

As soon as the gas dissipated, Guaido got on the stage just as more motorcycled men began firing live rounds, presumably to frighten off the opposition leader. He refused to budge. On this occasion, no one was killed or injured.

Venezuelans call these irregular armed gangs colectivos or collectives, while the UN Human Rights Commission describes them as para-police, or paramilitary forces loyal to President Nicolas Maduro.

Government opponents and protesters fear them far more than the police or the National Guard. 

READ MORE
Venezuela in crisis: All the latest updates
For years, they have served as an unofficial, parallel force to confront demonstrators with impunity. Often, they do not bother to cover their faces or hide their identities, as they move in to "keep social order" on behalf of Hugo Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution.

But for embattled President Maduro and his supporters, the collectivos are likened to "angels of socialism".

"I admire them. They are organisations created for the good of the community. The collectives work for society, for the sick, for peace, and against crime. They have been around for 20 years as a form of organisation of the people," said Maduro, the day after the San Bernardino incident.

He did not explain how they obtain tear gas - which is only supposed to be issued to riot police and National Guardsmen - or why many have licenses to carry weapons issued by security forces.

more at he link. i'm sure they come by tear gas and weapon licenses the honest way.

[texastough 1129]

2 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

1. What estimates are these?

2. That doesn’t mean they support Guaido

Here's one example: 

Polls suggest that 80% of them are sick of him.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/02/02/the-battle-for-venezuelas-future

If thats true, its kind of a red herring to say the people don't want Guaido as president, since Guaido is promising free elections as soon as Maduro is out.

[Rimbo 25921]

2 hours ago, Enchubben said:

I think deep down a large majority of Americans would actually be supportive of how Venezuela is being handled if it were anyone but Trump doing it.

This is true of so many things in politics. It's important to be aware of one's biases. This is why I feel it's terribly important to try not to identify with a party or political leaning; once you do, you can trap yourself into horrible logical fallacies.

This may seem convoluted, but I can prove this to you with one sentence:

OU fucking sucks.

You agree with this. I agree with this. We all know that OU sucks. Now, objectively, something "sucks" for various reasons generally having to do with poor performance or painful experiences. I don't think we can objectively associate this with OU. They've had stellar success on the football field, while we have not.

OU still fucking sucks.

It doesn't matter that this is a logical fallacy. We just know this is true.

OU sucks the sweat off a dead mule's balls.

We agree with this because we are Longhorns. We'll pull in our reason to defend its truth, despite the absolute subjective nature of the thing, despite many objective truths contradicting it -- which we'll ignore -- because OU sucks and that's just how it is.

See, it's OK to think that, because it's only football fandom, and it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. Furthermore, we've associated ourselves with a generally educated (much better-educated than our inbred rivals on the other side of the Red River, I might add -- and that is an objective fact, thankyouverymuch) and ideologically diverse population. So we now can discuss politics and religion and other things that actually matter knowing that we are safe in our tribe, because of our shared knowledge that Longhorns rule and OU sucks.

Now, what happens if you -- instead of identifying with Texas Sports -- identify with a political party or individual? Now you're going to hate every criticism of that individual/party and criticize everything about his/their opponents. And you're going to be entirely irrational about that, just the same as we are when we say that Lincoln Riley eats puppies.

I'm totally cool with admitting that even a blind squirrel can find a nut every now and then. Trump can occasionally, and quite on accident, do the right thing. As I believe he did with Venezuela. I can also admit that GWB -- who I supported back in the beginning of the century -- didn't do everything right. It's OK to look at parties and politicians and be fair with them, because I see myself as a Longhorn first, and everything else second. I can be honest about my Faith, my politics, etc. These things actually matter, and being able to not be an irrational dumbfuck about them actual matters.

This is the power of knowing that OU sucks.

[bad_teammate 13195]

27 minutes ago, texastough said:

The most reliable estimates I've seen say 80% want to oust Maduro.

What about actually looking at the failed lol "military" lol coup? If 80% of Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, that was the time to do it.

But... uh... no.

[texastough 1129]

Are you saying that the 80% figure must be wrong because the military didn't overthrown Maduro? Did you see the Time magazine link I posted above explaining how the military is in on the klepto schemes?

[bad_teammate 13195]

If 8 out of every 10 Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, we would've seen it in the streets.

We didn't.

I trust my eyes over the Western press when it comes to South America.

[hpslugga 4058]

31 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

https://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/americas/2019/05/venezuela-colectivos-190506163125345.html

having a paramilitary pseudo-police group helps. totally democratic.

more at he link. i'm sure they come by tear gas and weapon licenses the honest way.

That still doesn't change the fact he has no meaningful popular support. It's easy for you to say that it's out of fear of repercussions, but there's no reason to believe that even absent that fear would he enjoy any meaningful following. He's viewed, correctly, as a US puppet and I suspect that even if this coup were to succeed, he'd renege on his "promises" to hold elections within the 30 days that are afforded to him via Article 233 of the Constitution. Why? Because if that were to happen, he'd obviously run as a candidate and my guess is that Falcon would beat the living hell out of him.

And even if you were correct in tacitly diagnosing the colectivos as paid operatives of the government, you'd still have your work cut out for you. You've been fairly ambiguous about your position, but it reeks of support for US interventionism, and it seems that it's driven by the very mistaken assumption that said interventionism is motivated by humanitarian interests. That's what's been frustrating about this conversation because at no point have either you or anyone else demonstrated evidence for that hypothesis in the slightest.

Our government does not care about the plight of the average Venezuelan. What they've been suggesting here, and at this point we have to assume CIA involvement because even they are clucking about it at this point, is a paradigmatic violation of international law...And it is not for humanitarian purposes. Again, our administration has been transparent in the expression of their wishes to turn profits of the oil reserves of Venezuela over to US-based multinationals. That's not only monstrous, it's completely hypocritical. You've got people here crying crocodile tears about how Maduro is stealing the oil revenue from the population. Well he may be, but what our government is suggesting is no different. It's still a theft of oil revenue; just not for the benefit of Nicolas Maduro. Now, you in particular may not be in favor of that, but that's just you. That's not your administration's position.

This is all reminding me of Honduras in 2009. That didn't turn out so well for the people who supported that silly nonsense.

[texastough 1129]

27 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If 8 out of every 10 Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, we would've seen it in the streets.

We didn't.

I trust my eyes over the Western press when it comes to South America.

Are in in Venezuela? What are you trusting with your eyes?

[bad_teammate 13195]

2 minutes ago, texastough said:

Are in in Venezuela? What are you trusting with your eyes?

The videos and photographs sent from the country.

If you have contrary evidence, I would be happy to see it.

[texastough 1129]

22 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

Again, our administration has been transparent in the expression of their wishes to turn profits of the oil reserves of Venezuela over to US-based multinationals. That's not only monstrous, it's completely hypocritical. You've got people here crying crocodile tears about how Maduro is stealing the oil revenue from the population. Well he may be, but what our government is suggesting is no different. It's still a theft of oil revenue; just not for the benefit of Nicolas Maduro. Now, you in particular may not be in favor of that, but that's just you. That's not your administration's position.

If this were true, then every oil and gas lease ever signed would be "stealing the oil revenue" from the mineral owners. GTFO with that shit. Multinational oil companies were operating in Venezuela because those companies are the ones with the resources and expertise to produce o&g. They paid royalties just like in any other case anywhere else in the world. They are actually allowing the o&g to be monetized because Venezuelans have demonstrated they can't produce it on their own.

[bad_teammate 13195]

When the money goes to populist "presidents", it's terrible.

When the money goes to wealthy capitalists, it's cool.

The people? LOL WHO NEEDS 'EM!?!?

[hpslugga 4058]

9 minutes ago, texastough said:

If this were true, then every oil and gas lease ever signed would be "stealing the oil revenue" from the mineral owners. GTFO with that shit. Multinational oil companies were operating in Venezuela because those companies are the ones with the resources and expertise to produce o&g. They paid royalties just like in any other case anywhere else in the world. They are actually allowing the o&g to be monetized because Venezuelans have demonstrated they can't produce it on their own.

That’s a nice fantasy.

”Oh they’re just there because they want to help! No material self-interest or anything like that!”

Edited May 9, 2019 by hpslugga

[texastough 1129]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The videos and photographs sent from the country.

If you have contrary evidence, I would be happy to see it.

I've already posted a source of those figures above and I've seen that 80% number in a lot of places. In addition to reports of millions of Venezuelans taking to the streets to protest Maduro.

"a series of protest marches drawing crowds which were reported by The Economist, The Wall Street Journal editorial board, and Yeshiva World News from hundreds of thousands to millions of Venezuelans"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Venezuelan_protests

So, written reporting (from Time mag, Economist, etc) explaining the situation in great detail = bad, but "videos and photographs" (again, no actual source) = good. IIRC, upthread you asserted photos of protests were supporters of Maduro when they were reported as protests of Maduro. Whatever man. Believe whatever you want.

[texastough 1129]

6 minutes ago, hpslugga said:

That’s a nice fantasy.

”Oh they’re just there because they want to help! No material self-interest or anything like that!”

Not at all what I said. They are there to make a profit, just like in any other location anywhere in the world. And the mineral owners/nonoperating participants get their royalties, just like everywhere else. Whats hard to understand about that?

[bad_teammate 13195]

9 minutes ago, texastough said:

Whatever man. Believe whatever you want. 

Despite an open and brazen military coup attempt supported by basically the entire Western power structure, Maduro is still in power and there weren't even mass-killings or military lockdowns. No reprisals against coup organizers, even.

If 8 out of 10 Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, he wouldn't be there.

[texastough 1129]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Despite an open and brazen military coup attempt supported by basically the entire Western power structure, Maduro is still in power and there weren't even mass-killings or military lockdowns. No reprisals against coup organizers, even.

If 8 out of 10 Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, he wouldn't be there.

"Military coup attempt"-- say what? What military?

"there weren't even mass-killings or military lockdowns" -- He's a despot, not a retard. As soon as he starts mass killing his people is when foreign militaries show up big time. 

Why can't you think a little bit and realize that 1) opposing meddling by the U.S. and 2) acknowledging that Maduro has ruined his country and is only holding on to power because the military is in his pocket, are not inconsistent  

[David Dennison 18855]

7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Despite an open and brazen military coup attempt supported by basically the entire Western power structure, Maduro is still in power and there weren't even mass-killings or military lockdowns. No reprisals against coup organizers, even.

If 8 out of 10 Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, he wouldn't be there.

This is true.

[texastough 1129]

11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

This is true.

. The opposition had lost the trust of most Venezuelans, 80 percent of whom want Maduro gone

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/01/24/venezuelas-mafia-state-under-nicolas-maduro-collapsing-column/2668693002/

[bad_teammate 13195]

38 minutes ago, texastough said:

"Military coup attempt"-- say what? What military?

Well, yeah, that's kind of the point. There were military figures who got involved. Not many... which ... ya know... is kind of the point.

Quote

"there weren't even mass-killings or military lockdowns" -- He's a despot, not a retard. As soon as he starts mass killing his people is when foreign militaries show up big time.

He's a despot that doesn't kill anyone. Weird definition of "despot".

Quote

2) acknowledging that Maduro has ruined his country and is only holding on to power because the military is in his pocket, are not inconsistent 

We can't know this is true because he didn't even have to try.

[bad_teammate 13195]

Openly conspiring with a hostile power.

Yet the "despot" doesn't even arrest him.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Yet the "despot" doesn't even arrest him.

Seems like a mistake on the despot’s part. 

[Enchubben 5510]

On 5/9/2019 at 1:26 PM, bad_teammate said:

When the money goes to populist "presidents", it's terrible.

When the money goes to wealthy capitalists, it's cool.

The people? LOL WHO NEEDS 'EM!?!?

I think you’re understanding of the economics of oil and gas is way off.

Do you honestly believe that the people of Venezuela are better off under the current environment or under a global free market for their natural resources?

[David Dennison 18855]

3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I think you’re understanding of the economics of oil and gas is way off.

Do you honestly believe that the people of Venezuela are better off under the current environment or under a global free market for their natural resources?

Ask the subjects of Saudi Arabia.

[bad_teammate 13195]

17 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you honestly believe that the people of Venezuela are better off under the current environment or under a global free market for their natural resources?

What the hell is a "global free market"?

[David Dennison 18855]

36 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

What the hell is a "global free market"?

OPEC would also like to know.

[RDCanecutter 26413]

On 5/9/2019 at 11:24 AM, InkaUtexas said:

I bet you like Ortega and think everything the US has ever done in Latin America is wrong. 

Nabbing Texas, New Mexico, and California worked out pretty well. Jury still out on Florida and Arizona.

[Parliament 14256]

This has to be the BORINGEST revolution ever.  Morundo needs to kill Guido; or America needs to send in the Green Berets.  Either way; just get it done already.

[Trey3216 15346]

23 hours ago, David Dennison said:

OPEC would also like to know.

Sweet barometer 

[David Dennison 18855]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Sweet barometer 

So you're saying we do have a global free market for oil?

Hmmmm.

[JBJ 3654]

What exactly is your argument? 

In this scenario, it's that thing where instead of the military taking control of your business you are allowed to make business deals with whoever you want - including multinationals. Hate to break it to you but that's a global free market, maybe it's not as free as you'd like, but it's a helluva lot freer than what amounts to military occupation of an industry.

Also, Venezuela was and maybe still is the largest exporter in the region, sits on the largest reserves, and are a member of OPEC. So they are the dominant force in their trade discussions.  They aren't exactly getting taken advantage of by foreign powers or corporations.

Edited May 13, 2019 by JBJ

[David Dennison 18855]

47 minutes ago, JBJ said:

What exactly is your argument? 

In this scenario, it's that thing where instead of the military taking control of your business you are allowed to make business deals with whoever you want - including multinationals. Hate to break it to you but that's a global free market, maybe it's not as free as you'd like, but it's a helluva lot freer than what amounts to military occupation of an industry.

Also, Venezuela was and maybe still is the largest exporter in the region, sits on the largest reserves, and are a member of OPEC. So they are the dominant force in their trade discussions.  They aren't exactly getting taken advantage of by foreign powers or corporations.

My argument is that it is not, nor has it ever been, a global free market.

[JBJ 3654]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

My argument is that it is not, nor has it ever been, a global free market.

You've already established that your definition of a free market is narrow.  I'm asking what your argument is.

Because it sounds like your making one of the dumbest arguments in Cloak Room history: "The international oil market isn't really free, so I'm completely fine with folding a highly leveragable position in that market and allowing military control of the industry."

But I'll let you clarify.

Edited May 13, 2019 by JBJ

[David Dennison 18855]

1 minute ago, JBJ said:

You've already established that your definition of a free market is narrow.  I'm asking what your argument is.

Because it sounds like your making one of the dumbest arguments in Cloak Room history: "The international oil market isn't really free, so I'm completely fine with folding a highly leveragable position in that market and allowing military control of the industry."

But I'll let you clarify.

I'm saying the first part, not the second part. At all. That's a straw man.

[hpslugga 4058]

3 hours ago, JBJ said:

What exactly is your argument? 

In this scenario, it's that thing where instead of the military taking control of your business you are allowed to make business deals with whoever you want - including multinationals. Hate to break it to you but that's a global free market, maybe it's not as free as you'd like, but it's a helluva lot freer than what amounts to military occupation of an industry.

Also, Venezuela was and maybe still is the largest exporter in the region, sits on the largest reserves, and are a member of OPEC. So they are the dominant force in their trade discussions.  They aren't exactly getting taken advantage of by foreign powers or corporations.

Why do you call it a military occupation?

[hayden_horn 11362]

On 5/11/2019 at 8:50 PM, RDCanecutter said:

Nabbing Texas, New Mexico, and California worked out pretty well. Jury still out on Florida and Arizona.

is the jury still out on florida? 

maybe, but only because it is comprised entirely of floridians or tourists who know florida by miami.

[JBJ 3654]

Just now, hpslugga said:

Why do you call it a military occupation?

Because Maduro jailed PDV's CEO and handed control to a General about a year ago.  I mean maybe that's not the correct wording because as far as we know they don't have military guards prowling the grounds.  But it does run the operation.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Update:  Russia won.

/end thread

[David Dennison 18855]

 

[bad_teammate 13195]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

 

This is the best possible news.

[hpslugga 4058]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

This is the best possible news.

I wouldn't go that far, but you're right in implying that the US getting any more involved than it did would have been exponentially worse.

The best possible news would be that the Venezuelan population itself chose to overthrow the government and reconstructed it with people that actually had responsiveness to public attitudes, namely diversifying the economy so that they don't have to live and die by a single commodity and that they remain at arm's length away from powerful states, namely the US and Russia. 

Edited June 20, 2019 by hpslugga

[bad_teammate 13195]

"possible" is the key word there.

Agree that all of these nations, including our own, should expel their current governments and reconstruct them in line with public needs and attitudes.

[Chad Fuck 17672]

The tail has a new dog to wag.  Her name is Iran.