2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[Rip76 4,943]

Figured I'd get it started.

11 days until the 2021 Hurricane Season.

Right on time, models are hinting at some type of tropical disturbance forming out of that blob of convection in the GOM in the next day and moving into Southeast Texas.  That would not be good as far a training rains are concerned.

 

Here is the list of names for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

• Ana
• Bill
• Claudette
• Danny
• Elsa
• Fred
• Grace
• Henri
• Ida
• Julian
• Kate
• Larry
• Mindy
• Nicholas
• Odette
• Peter
• Rose
• Sam
• Teresa
• Victor
• Wanda

Edited May 20, 2021 by Rip76

[phdhorn 6,224]

Yup, always, ALWAYS the early-early season off-the-Texas-coast thingamabob.

There's also one dancing around out there in the N. Atlantic, won't affect us or get big at all, but Whomp! There it is!

[drt 639]

I’ve only known one Mindy, and she was a real bitch. 

[phdhorn 6,224]

I'll wager that Peter and Rose won't consecutively affect the outcome of any MLB game.

[Hanrahan 1,306]

Names are too white.

[phdhorn 6,224]

1 minute ago, Hanrahan said:

Names are too white.

Odette:

[Rip76 4,943]

Fred:

[Doc Reeves 6,434]

Calling my shot. Wanda is going to be a bad one. 

[Rip76 4,943]

UKMet model latching on.

 

[Rip76 4,943]

Euro on board now too.

[Hate 20,112]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=vis-swir

 

You can already see some rotation on satellite.  The Golden Triangle is already in trouble.  It's about to get really bad for them.  Any trips on I-10 into or out of LA/TX need to happen within the next 24 hours or so.

[Rip76 4,943]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/921-w-267-n/2021052012-240.html

 

 

[Dewey 3,286]

 

4 hours ago, Hate said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=vis-swir

 

You can already see some rotation on satellite.  The Golden Triangle is already in trouble.  It's about to get really bad for them.  Any trips on I-10 into or out of LA/TX need to happen within the next 24 hours or so.

Oh, okay 👍

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Mindy is going to fuck a lot of people

[Hate 20,112]

A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the 
western Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development over the next day or so before the disturbance 
moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Friday 
night. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy 
rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern 
Louisiana on Friday and through the weekend.  Additional information 
on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products 
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

1 hour ago, Dewey said:

 

Oh, okay 👍

 

I'm not really sure what this means. They shut down I10 earlier this week and it's possible there could be enough rain to do it again beginning tomorrow night.

Edited May 21, 2021 by Hate

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

With the way things have been it’s best to assume things will get fucky. 

[phdhorn 6,224]

It means, whether it becomes tropical or not, it's gonna rain like a mofo in places where it rained like a mofo this past week.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

20 hours ago, Doc Reeves said:

Calling my shot. Wanda is going to be a bad one. 

Probably a fish storm.

[Hate 20,112]

Now up to a 40% chance of development.

 

Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[pearlandhorn 3,274]

SpaceCityWeather and KHOU are both saying it's going to be a good ole turd floater here in Houston.  Sucks for kid's tball game and crawfish boil this weekend.

Can we just fast-forward to October, skip the 1000 degree days, say fuck hurricanes?

[texasdago 7,575]

Everything I've read is basically, "it was going to rain anyway whether this thing turns into anything or not"

It will be inconsequential (unless you live near Beaumont and then you will get 2 feet of rain)

[Gatorubet 30,246]

Calling my shot. Wanda is going to be a bad one. 

A Hurricane with red hair. Book it.

[phdhorn 6,224]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

Now up to a 40% chance of development.

 

Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

This thing isn't even causing Houston NWS to bat an eye.  They're saying a lot of dry air will be pulled in and even if it gets to TS strength, it'll weaken so quickly as to be really a non-factor(?).  Just heavy rain  - widespread, not everywhere - in extreme coastal Texas.

I'll check back but this is so far a nuthin'burger.  For now.

[texasdago 7,575]

Its not like Imelda which happened in September when the Gulf was full of Rocket Fuel.

[pearlandhorn 3,274]

NWS should have had a Hurricane Karen just to give us one last F you.

[Hate 20,112]

18 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

This thing isn't even causing Houston NWS to bat an eye.  They're saying a lot of dry air will be pulled in and even if it gets to TS strength, it'll weaken so quickly as to be really a non-factor(?).  Just heavy rain  - widespread, not everywhere - in extreme coastal Texas.

I'll check back but this is so far a nuthin'burger.  For now.

Yeah, this isn't likely to become a big storm or anything, but it could dump a lot of rain on some places that have already had a lot of rain over the last week.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,206]

On 5/20/2021 at 10:44 AM, Rip76 said:

Figured I'd get it started.

11 days until the 2021 Hurricane Season.

Right on time, models are hinting at some type of tropical disturbance forming out of that blob of convection in the GOM in the next day and moving into Southeast Texas.  That would not be good as far a training rains are concerned.

 

Here is the list of names for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

• Ana
• Bill
• Claudette
• Danny
• Elsa
• Fred
• Grace
• Henri
• Ida
• Julian
• Kate
• Larry
• Mindy
• Nicholas
• Odette
• Peter
• Rose
• Sam
• Teresa
• Victor
• Wanda

They need to have one year where they bust out some of the retired names.

[Steel Shank 9,428]

Praise Jesus I don’t see Christy on that list.

[Rip76 4,943]

8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

They need to have one year where they bust out some of the retired names.

Carla, Ike, Katrina, The 1900 Storm, Allen, Gilbert

[Neonmoon 38,129]

10 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Carla, Ike, Katrina, The 1900 Storm, Allen, Gilbert

Like a Gulf Coast All Stars?

[UT_OB1 2,224]

20 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Carla, Ike, Katrina, The 1900 Storm, Allen, Gilbert

 

10 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Like a Gulf Coast All Stars?

List is terrible. No Camille, Allison or Harvey.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,206]

27 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Carla, Ike, Katrina, The 1900 Storm, Allen, Gilbert

Camille is the first one I would bring back.

That bitch don't fuck around.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Galveston, Harvey, Allen, Allison, Camille, Carla, Alicia, Rita, Ike, Audrey, Celia, Rosa, 

[Hate 20,112]

Up to 60% now.

Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Rip76 4,943]

2 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

 

List is terrible. No Camille, Allison or Harvey.

I thought the 1900 Storm was pretty funny.

 

[Patricio Swayze 17,058]

Everything I've read is basically, "it was going to rain anyway whether this thing turns into anything or not"
It will be inconsequential (unless you live near Beaumont and then you will get 2 feet of rain)

If you live in Beaumont, you deserve it. SE Texas sucks. Including Houston. I wish I could leave.

[Hanrahan 1,306]

Haul ass. Ain’t nothing stopping you but you.

[phdhorn 6,224]

8 hours ago, Hate said:

Yeah, this isn't likely to become a big storm or anything, but it could dump a lot of rain on some places that have already had a lot of rain over the last week.

[NorthLoop 14,215]

They should just do something like the most popular baby names in New Zealand in 1992 and just roll with it.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

Meh, looks like it will be more to the west and no big deal.  NWS forecasts now of less than an inch for everywhere I looked in SE Texas.

[Nicole44 22,061]

Odette and Larry. 
Keeping an eye on those two fuckers. 
 

[Hate 20,112]

35 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Meh, looks like it will be more to the west and no big deal.  NWS forecasts now of less than an inch for everywhere I looked in SE Texas.

Yeah, it sucked in a lot of dry air today which pretty much killed any chance of it developing.  I'm ok with that. 

[Patricio Swayze 17,058]

Haul ass. Ain’t nothing stopping you but you.

I assume you aren’t married to a woman with a career.

[UTexasFight 9,497]

Elsa and Ana, huh?

 

 

[Dewey 3,286]

Who would have thought Austin would get more rain than the Triangle? 

[sasquatch69 603]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:17 AM, Doc Reeves said:

Calling my shot. Wanda is going to be a bad one. 

 

[Nicole44 22,061]

7 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Elsa and Ana, huh?

 

 

Frozen! Gawd! “Let it go!” Ha...

[Dewey 3,286]

 

[WhatTheBuck 28,788]

Ana getting things kicked off early. 

[Pancho 44,856]

ABC13 saying their models are showing something possibly developing in the Gulf late next week. Should I go to HEB now, or….