2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[Fudge Nuggets 19191]

I bought two 48 roll packs of shit tickets.  You never know.

[Hate 20108]

There isn't a whole lot of confidence this is going to develop.  Some models showed it a day or two ago, but aren't showing anything now.  It's too early to tell and we probably won't know for sure for another 3 or 4 days...at least.  From the NHC:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  Some 
gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system 
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.  Regardless of 
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across 
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras 
southward later this week and into the weekend.  See products from 
your local meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hate 20108]

Then again, there is this.

[Hate 20108]

So it turns out that the image above was actuslly picking up on a system that may cross over from the Pacific and develop last next week in the Bay of Campeche. It will have to be watched over the next several days.

[atomheartbevo 89681]

If Hurricane Bill wrecks Houston or New Orleans, well, that’s a pretty appropriate name I suppose.  

[Telegraph_it 3357]

Anything out of Campeche can get fucked and go right please. 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Telegraph_it

[Dewey 3286]

70% Louisiana,  30% Texas, what does that mean for La.? Rain. 

[Rip76 4928]

2 minutes ago, Dewey said:

70% Louisiana,  30% Texas, what does that mean for La.? Rain. 

Most likely yes.

[bigshark88 388]

Subscribed.

[Dewey 3286]

Thing has.moved further east, Texas coast might get some rain. To be safe, everyone stay away from the coast this weekend.

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084]

So, Lake Charles, again, it is.

Edited June 16, 2021 by J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

[Nicole44 22060]

Claudette…

There is a 70 percent chance that the low pressure area and thunderstorms currently located in the Bay of Campeche in southern Mexico will strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said on its website. If so, the storm will be named Tropical Storm Claudette.

Hurricane season kicked off on June 1 and the National Hurricane Center has already tracked three storms, a rarity for this time of year and a possible indication of what is to come. Forecasters have warned that they expect an “above-average” Atlantic hurricane season.

[GreenspointTexas 9604]

Wasnt there already a Claudette that hit LA a while back?

[BearSchlong 8098]

1979. Beaumont flooded bad, my Dad and 7 yr old me drove around in his company's dump truck checking on relatives.

[Jshep34 2308]

Any update on forecast ?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[bolverk 29683]

3 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Any update on forecast ?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

[BearSchlong 8098]

[BearSchlong 8098]

[Rip76 4928]

Turn up the blastfurnace even higher now.

[Gatorubet 30243]

Any update on forecast ?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Forecast? Insurers will deny coverage.

[phdhorn 6224]

15 hours ago, Rip76 said:

Turn up the blastfurnace even higher now.

The only thing that might save us from "west side burnout" is that the circulation isn't that strong so it might not funnel a lot of hot air.  Predicted highs haven't changed much from their numbers earlier this week.

[Parliament 14260]

Would be awesome if that thing chases some rain up into the Midwest.

[Rip76 4928]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely form during the next few days 
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[NorthLoop 14209]

That's pretty long and narrow for a prediction

[Brisketexan 105151]

13 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

That's pretty long and narrow for a prediction

Something something penis.

[phdhorn 6224]

The ones that are shaped like giant 'X' s are the worst!
(Glad tho to see that NHC still uses MS Paint for their sophisticated forecasts!).

[Dewey 3286]

At least it's ms paint and not a sharpie

[CleverNickname 1311]

Who had the bright idea to use Elsa as a storm name? The crazy bitch who devastates the seaside village with out of control weather. Our only hope is if the mountainous assets of the greater Antilles (aka the trolls) help teacher her to control her magic. 

[Dewey 3286]

Elsa will be a hurricane, I've read "less land interaction in the Caribbean" "slows down before turning north" and "warm waters". I think living in hurricane country, I've learned to see these models so far out and despite the experts still predicting TS, go ahead and buy extra toilet paper, it's a hurricane. Hope not too bad and really hope that northern sweeps out into the Atlantic in a hurry.

[Ogie Ogilthorpe 639]

Sitting here in SW Florida (in the cone for Tuesday 2 AM as of now), waiting for the mass hysteria over a tropical storm. I am sure Publix and other stores will be out of water soon.

[Mother mopar 3319]

Sitting here in SW Florida (in the cone for Tuesday 2 AM as of now), waiting for the mass hysteria over a tropical storm. I am sure Publix and other stores will be out of water soon.

I feel you, I'm in NW Florida and I'm just waiting for the run on toilet paper, paper towels, and other meaningless items.

[Zonahorn 8079]

A hurricane in the MDR in July, we're in for another brutal year

[Zwylde 812]

[Pimphand 5756]

Elsa moving in as a hurricane to Tampa & St Pete....Paging @phdhornto the batphone.

[InkaUtexas 25951]

Do we need to ship them a blue shed or 50? 

[Pimphand 5756]

13 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Do we need to ship them a blue shed or 50? 

I don't think it's that kind of storm

[phdhorn 6224]

6 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Elsa moving in as a hurricane to Tampa & St Pete....Paging @phdhornto the batphone.

Just saw this, son got engaged last night and we had a in-law dinner tonight.

Elsa will hit the coast as the weakest hurricane possible, about 74 mph. It'll put down a lot of rain and some minor flooding but it's moving fast and will probably gradually weaken as a skirts the Atlantic coast. Out of the country by thursday.

Hurricanes are never anything to slough off, but this one shouldn't be a relatively big deal.

[WBT 20580]

Yeah but it's going up the eastern seaboard so it will be a big deal.  Maybe even a superstorm.

[phdhorn 6224]

8 hours ago, WBT said:

Yeah but it's going up the eastern seaboard so it will be a big deal.  Maybe even a superstorm.

My bad.  Sometimes I forget that what happens in Washington, New York, and Boston is the only relevant news in the United States.

You're right.  And now we'll throw in "78 million at risk" headlines.  Becuase no one watches our shit anymore unless we go all Disaster Movie.

[Rip76 4928]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1412787516621656068

 

This morning's sfc obs & NWP analysis suggest it has tropical characteristics, w/ a well defined + closed ~1010mb sfc low & shallow diabatically-forced +PV tower

[phdhorn 6224]

Yeah the center moved over land, probably won't go back out.  It tried, but I think it'll poop out.  Still, should drop some serious rain on the SE and N. Mex. coasts.  We'll be in that lovely border between "a lot" and "nothing, and you'll like it" with the steep gradients of tropical lows.  Still, radar showing a big mess coming our way, the only question is will it dissipate on its northern edges before making it up here?  Right now I'm thinking more scattered, less amounts for our area.

[Pimphand 5756]

Boston and NYC be like
 

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe 639]

It was a non event in SW Florida, 24 hours of rain and flooding in the places that flood normally, but if you watched local news you would swear a category 5 was coming.

[phdhorn 6224]

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Yeah the center moved over land, probably won't go back out.  It tried, but I think it'll poop out.  Still, should drop some serious rain on the SE and N. Mex. coasts.  We'll be in that lovely border between "a lot" and "nothing, and you'll like it" with the steep gradients of tropical lows.  Still, radar showing a big mess coming our way, the only question is will it dissipate on its northern edges before making it up here?  Right now I'm thinking more scattered, less amounts for our area.

This is exactly what happened today.  Don't expect much out of this today.  Maybe tomorrow, depending on movement.

[Hate 20108]

Boston and NYC be like
 
 

Of course it will. I’m in Boston now heading to Maine on Friday. I’m supposed to play golf on Friday. I leave the Gulf Coast and still have my plans interrupted by a goddamn tropical storm. Fuck you Mother Nature.

[Brew 3049]

On 7/7/2021 at 2:48 PM, Ogie Ogilthorpe said:

It was a non event in SW Florida, 24 hours of rain and flooding in the places that flood normally, but if you watched local news you would swear a category 5 was coming.

We ended up with quite a bit of rain which we needed so not all bad. It blew through pretty quickly though which was a plus. Sea turtle nests took major hits from the tide which sucks.

[jdhorn92 1552]

Bump for the latest Invest...Fred is on deck...We'll know a hell of a lot more Friday on this one

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Freddy coming?

[Hate 20108]

Too early to be sure, but most models say it’s Florida again.

[NorthLoop 14209]

According to the locals on my honeymoon, Punta Cana never takes a direct hit like ever. So maybe it'll veer south..... but probably won't. Probably be another Maria.