2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[fattyflattie 4639]

15 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

now it will ruin the shit out of the dove hunting right before the season starts.

Just like every year it seems. 

[Rip76 4928]

4 hours ago, texasdago said:

I mean, they called it on Thursday

 

I’ll dig up some earlier model runs, than that Thursday.

[Rip76 4928]

4 hours ago, texasdago said:

I mean, they called it on Thursday

 

I’ll dig up some earlier model runs, than that Thursday.

[Rip76 4928]

4 hours ago, texasdago said:

I mean, they called it on Thursday

 

I’ll dig up some earlier model runs, than that Thursday.

[Rip76 4928]

Then I’ll post it 3 times.

[pearlandhorn 3269]

8 hours ago, texasdago said:

I mean, they called it on Thursday

 

[pearlandhorn 3269]

8 hours ago, texasdago said:

I mean, they called it on Thursday

 

Nightmare fuel

Edited August 25, 2021 by pearlandhorn

[phdhorn 6224]

Of course models are almost useless until the thing actually closes up and forms, but most of 'em are now pushing E to a NOLA area landing.

FWIW <roll dice>

[Neonmoon 38129]

[NorthLoop 14205]

So..... Tampa. 

[pearlandhorn 3269]

25 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

So..... Tampa. 

Nah - Oahu.

[Bevo 13577]

49 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

COTC (light blue) and CMC (yellow) are retarded. No way will this thing go over Cuba.

And UKM (dark blue) needs to be dropped from the composite. My patient's fetus could do better than that.

[texasdago 7573]

9 hours ago, Rip76 said:

I’ll dig up some earlier model runs, than that Thursday.

I mean I hear you but model runs are model runs and until it gets closer, the storm kind of does what it wants.  That doc shows Thursday with a crazy wobble and it was spot on.  The big rains didn't hit our house until Saturday night.

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

These models are worthless until a center of circulation develops. There is also an Easterly Wave developing along the LA coast which will move west this weekend. Not even looking at this until then.

[UTexasFight 9454]

1 hour ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

These models are worthless until a center of circulation develops. There is also an Easterly Wave developing along the LA coast which will move west this weekend. Not even looking at this until then.

Jokes on you.

I’ve already gassed up 3 55 gal (open) trash cans. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by UTexasFight

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

 

[Blotto 23517]

53 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

 

This has to be staged for social media hits. I refuse to believe somebody can be this stupid and make it to his age alive. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Deja vu from almost exactly one year ago. Straight at Galveston and then a turn north at the last minute to Lake Charles. Gotta feel bad for them if it verifies, I was driving through there about a month ago and there are still a lot of blue tarps on the roofs.

All of the models are clustering around Louisiana this morning.

(recognize that it's still very early)

 

[tokamak 6431]

3 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Deja vu from almost exactly one year ago. Straight at Galveston and then a turn north at the last minute to Lake Charles. Gotta feel bad for them if it verifies, I was driving through there about a month ago and there are still a lot of blue tarps on the roofs.

All of the models are clustering around Louisiana this morning.

(recognize that it's still very early)

 

Also a reminder that NHC dragged their nuts across the face of every spaghetti model on this one. I was just skimming thru the 2020 thread last night - we were all panicking in Houston but the whole time the NHC was like "bitch, be cool".

[Hate 20108]

Here is the latest HWRF model which is from a combination of inputs from different weather bureaus (NHC, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC))

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Hate

[Neonmoon 38129]

We all know it's going to New Orleans. God hates New Orleans. 

[Brisketexan 105146]

12 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We all know it's going to New Orleans. God hates New Orleans. 

 

Counterpoint: NOLA is the only place on earth where God can take human form, go and get his freak on, and nobody will judge him.

[justhookit 4191]

Happy Harvey 4th anniversary everyone! Needless to say that isn’t helping matters with locals here in Port A. Everyone is on edge. I’m Liking the recent storm track towards LA a lot.

[smuggs 9353]

Lake Charles, AKA Tropical Fast Ball Central, checking in.

This town can't handle another one, not right now. For fuck's sake I hope this thing heads somewhere else.

[jeevsie 3734]

Going to Costco today.  Anyone need anything? (I will be clearing them out of toilet paper - don't ask for that)

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

2 hours ago, Blotto said:

This has to be staged for social media hits. I refuse to believe somebody can be this stupid and make it to his age alive. 

Haha. 

[SydneyCarton 48107]

3 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

 

By all accounts, it appears the woman talking in that video can fucking get it.

[Hate 20108]

Would hang out in a blue shed with her.

[smuggs 9353]

Is she wearing a cup? That's cool if she is, being prepped for a possible falcon punch and all.

[Updawg 2266]

Has to be water

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

1 hour ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Deja vu from almost exactly one year ago. Straight at Galveston and then a turn north at the last minute to Lake Charles. Gotta feel bad for them if it verifies, I was driving through there about a month ago and there are still a lot of blue tarps on the roofs.

All of the models are clustering around Louisiana this morning.

(recognize that it's still very early)

 

Here's the 12z Euro. Pretty much identical. 

[Guest Lobo]

What's the hospital situation like in Southern Louisiana right now?  Are they packed like ours with Covid folks who would need to be evacuated?  Are there ICU beds for those injured in the storms?  I can barely get good data for Austin, and then Texas.  Nevermind Louisiana. Godspeed to y'all in that path. 

[Stella Link 534]

5 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Here's the 12z Euro. Pretty much identical. 

Both a bit too close to Houston.

[Pancho 44805]

So no Nola trip next weekend?

[smuggs 9353]

11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

What's the hospital situation like in Southern Louisiana right now?  Are they packed like ours with Covid folks who would need to be evacuated?  Are there ICU beds for those injured in the storms?  I can barely get good data for Austin, and then Texas.  Nevermind Louisiana. Godspeed to y'all in that path. 

Memorial and St. Pat's are the two largest hospitals in LC. Memorial ICU is 65% full and St. Pat's is 100%.

Calcasieu Parish's vax rate is 31% (just 27% a month ago). 

[Guest Lobo]

I'm gonna assume moving hundreds of ICU patients (many of whom are intubated) for a hurricane evacuation is probably not super easy?  

[SydneyCarton 48107]

20 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm gonna assume moving hundreds of ICU patients (many of whom are intubated) for a hurricane evacuation is probably not super easy?  

Not being a dick here, but what is the appropriate place to discuss this? DT? Cloak Room? It's own thread?

If this hits the right way, it could be one of the most painful humanitarian disasters we've seen in this country in a long, long time. Maybe ever? You'd be talking about not only the evacuation to literally NOWHERE in the south with capacity, only a few days out, or the possibility of leaving folks there, unconscious or sick and hoping power remains, and zero hope of any new admittance. And asking medical personnel to stay at their own risk in even worse conditions. 

This probably deserves it's own thread. 

[jdhorn92 1549]

No bueno as of now. As some have said however, we'll know more once it gets north of the Yucutan.

 

[Guest Lobo]

Cloak Room?  What the fuck?  I asked an innocent question about what the hospital scene was like in the path of a hurricane.  It's a legit question because evacuation logistics are already a fucking nightmare when hundreds of people on breathing vents are involved.  It's a thread about hurricanes.  So I asked a question about how we get vulnerable people out of its path.  I honestly don't know the Louisiana hospital situation so I asked and got some great data straight away.  I wanna figure out a way to help between now and then.  Obviously I ain't going there and obviously donations aren't really gonna help right now. 

And our own hospital systems here in Texas are completely overrun so if we all put our heads and hearts and wallets together, maybe we can figure something out.  Our trucking company always offers to help move supplies (we're not set up for human transport).  We've been doing it since September 11th.  If there are hospital groups not in Covid shitshow spots, we could help move their spare equipment to points north of the hurricane path and get people resettled there for a week or so?  I wouldn't know where to begin but I can muster a rather large fleet on a day's notice if hospital groups in places like Little Rock, Memphis, or Tulsa can spare equipment.  But they're probably overrun themselves with covid patients.

[SydneyCarton 48107]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Cloak Room?  What the fuck?  I asked an innocent question about what the hospital scene was like in the path of a hurricane.  It's a legit question because evacuation logistics are already a fucking nightmare when hundreds of people on breathing vents are involved.  It's a thread about hurricanes.  So I asked a question about how we get vulnerable people out of its path.  I honestly don't know the Louisiana hospital situation so I asked and got some great data straight away.  I wanna figure out a way to help between now and then.  Obviously I ain't going there and obviously donations aren't really gonna help right now. 

And our own hospital systems here in Texas are completely overrun so if we all put our heads and hearts and wallets together, maybe we can figure something out.  Our trucking company always offers to help move supplies (we're not set up for human transport).  We've been doing it since September 11th.  If there are hospital groups not in Covid shitshow spots, we could help move their spare equipment to points north of the hurricane path and get people resettled there for a week or so?  I wouldn't know where to begin but I can muster a rather large fleet on a day's notice if hospital groups in places like Little Rock, Memphis, or Tulsa can spare equipment.  But they're probably overrun themselves with covid patients.

Did you miss the part about me saying "Not trying to be a dick." It was an honest fucking question, and I thought your point was legit as I illustrated with the rest of my fucking post. But yeah, I know you know better than to think many posts and conversations can't turn fucking political, and this is the hurricane path thread, so I thought folks might not want to clutter it the fuck up with anything other than paths and such. Were you always a sensitive boy, Tommy?

[Guest Lobo]

I gotcha man.  Just everybody is so damn touchy with any thread getting slightly political.  We can't talk about Afghanistan, Delta Variant, school, the football stadium, anything without somebody declaring "AHHH Cloak Room!"  Mea culpa.  
You're right about the inevitable veering of the thread, but for now I want to see how we can help. Lots of Cajuns on this board.  Maybe they know something concrete we can do.  But then yes, right after that we can cloak room this shit up and bitch again!  
I've never liked August.  Now I know why.

[hornbri 1398]

44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not being a dick here, but what is the appropriate place to discuss this? DT? Cloak Room? It's own thread?

If this hits the right way, it could be one of the most painful humanitarian disasters we've seen in this country in a long, long time. Maybe ever? You'd be talking about not only the evacuation to literally NOWHERE in the south with capacity, only a few days out, or the possibility of leaving folks there, unconscious or sick and hoping power remains, and zero hope of any new admittance. And asking medical personnel to stay at their own risk in even worse conditions. 

This probably deserves it's own thread. 

I think as this storm forms that will become the major story. It should be being discussed. 

[Pancho 44805]

KPRC just said a new model came out saying a direct hit with 120mph winds to New Orleans sometime Monday?

[Dewey 3286]

Take anything Frank says with a grain of salt 

[gmr548 16580]

KPRC just said a new model came out saying a direct hit with 120mph winds to New Orleans sometime Monday?

That’s typical local news sensationalism. Could that happen, sure, but five days out there’s not a lot of confidence in any given track or strength forecast.

Keep an eye on it and prepare accordingly, definitely, but remember that “the field” is definitely the safe bet vs. any single given scenario at this point.

[Neonmoon 38129]

[Pancho 44805]

5 minutes ago, Dewey said:

Take anything Frank says with a grain of salt 

I trust the abc13 aggy more, but I can't stand Art Rascon so I don't watch it until 10pm. 

[Hate 20108]

David Paul on channel 11 is who I watch…he’s a Longhorn.

[Telegraph_it 3357]

Guys the correct answer is always Lake Charles. 
 

[miguelito 11266]

No updates from Frankie MacDonald yet.