2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[Storm the Field 5296]

Welp, in-laws are all finally heading back to LA. BIL's neighborhood in BR got power back last night and my wife's parents have secured a place to stay for a while. Sounds like the tree damage at their house is pretty bad, probably gonna require some serious repair work over the next few months.

[Blotto 23560]

On 8/31/2021 at 8:45 AM, justhookit said:

Also after they return he is going to give me a quote for another run based on time, fuel, etc. I don’t think that’s the way we want to go here. They will get plenty of supplies and if it’s like Port A they will get too much. They will need money, clothes, decent food, and beer.

I was in my office yesterday for the first time in months and noticed we have a bunch of t-shirts (maybe 50-100 ?? all sizes ) for  a software product that we have rebranded. We can’t send them out to customers, so the plan was to see if goodwill here in Austin wanted them.  as a fashion statement, they are kind of ugly, but for functional clothing they are brand new. My guess is they would be more useful in LA than sitting on the shelves of local goodwill. My office manager said she would ship them somewhere; do you have any specific idea what to do with these things?   

[atomheartbevo 89735]

Just now, Blotto said:

I was in my office yesterday for the first time in months and noticed we have a bunch of t-shirts (maybe 50-100 ?? all sizes ) for  a software product that we have rebranded. We can’t send them out to customers, so the plan was to see if goodwill here in Austin wanted them.  as a fashion statement, they are kind of ugly, but for functional clothing they are brand new. My guess is they would be more useful in LA than sitting on the shelves of local goodwill. My office manager said she would ship them somewhere; do you have any specific idea what to do with these things?   

How are they not already in Africa or South America?

[NorthLoop 14217]

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I was in my office yesterday for the first time in months and noticed we have a bunch of t-shirts (maybe 50-100 ?? all sizes ) for  a software product that we have rebranded. We can’t send them out to customers, so the plan was to see if goodwill here in Austin wanted them.  as a fashion statement, they are kind of ugly, but for functional clothing they are brand new. My guess is they would be more useful in LA than sitting on the shelves of local goodwill. My office manager said she would ship them somewhere; do you have any specific idea what to do with these things?   

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

14 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I was in my office yesterday for the first time in months and noticed we have a bunch of t-shirts (maybe 50-100 ?? all sizes ) for  a software product that we have rebranded. We can’t send them out to customers, so the plan was to see if goodwill here in Austin wanted them.  as a fashion statement, they are kind of ugly, but for functional clothing they are brand new. My guess is they would be more useful in LA than sitting on the shelves of local goodwill. My office manager said she would ship them somewhere; do you have any specific idea what to do with these things?   

I use them as shop rags.  

[utee94 15835]

21 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I use them as shop rags.  

A friend of mine is the one who printed up and sold hundreds (maybe thousands?) of Dump DeLoss, Flush The John t-shirts back in the day.  He's not the one that flew the banner, just the t-shirts.

To this day, every now and then he stumbles across another box of those things, tucked away in the attic or at the back of a closet.  He uses them for shop rags, too.

[FartingMonk 3608]

12 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

 

 

You can't assume the maintenance contractor knows which way the process is supposed to flow, although sometimes operations just assumes it should be self evident.

Yeah usually I draw an arrow on the adjacent piping.  Then on our closeout paperwork it will ask hey is this valve installed in the right direction and you have to verify.  But somehow during startup you still find it fucked.  

[UTexasFight 9511]

 

2, 1, x

[NorthLoop 14217]

6 hours ago, utee94 said:

A friend of mine is the one who printed up and sold hundreds (maybe thousands?) of Dump DeLoss, Flush The John t-shirts back in the day.  He's not the one that flew the banner, just the t-shirts.

To this day, every now and then he stumbles across another box of those things, tucked away in the attic or at the back of a closet.  He uses them for shop rags, too.

You could post those here for 25 bucks a pop and they'd be gone in a week.

[The Ace of Aces 5192]

Ida has given me 6.8” rain today. Flooding sucks. 

[VirginiaLonghorn 4777]

Serious destruction … flooding and tornadoes … from DC suburbs thru Philadelphia and NJ into NYC where it’s raining 3” per hour WITH a tornado in the city.  Whew …

[fattyflattie 4639]

Just barely skirted our job site today. Looked pretty nasty just west of us. 

[Blotto 23560]

I dont like the looks of Larry. Not one bit.

All business. All the time. 

[nycHorn 3037]

Serious destruction … flooding and tornadoes … from DC suburbs thru Philadelphia and NJ into NYC where it’s raining 3” per hour WITH a tornado in the city.  Whew …

I’m in Brooklyn and I’ve never seen rain like this before. My street is a lake. The water is over the curb.

[VirginiaLonghorn 4777]

1 minute ago, nycHorn said:

I’m in Brooklyn and I’ve never seen rain like this before. My street is a lake. The water is over the curb.

… and WC says the rain will continue at that high rate for at least a couple of hours more.  Good luck and stay indoors ..

[NorthLoop 14217]

Never fourget what Ida did to the east coast.

[bolverk 29694]

15 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Never fourget what Ida did to the east coast.

Sounds like some Nicholls State running back wrecked the Fightin' Blue Hens.

[Stunns38 3536]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CTTWjFRgjY7/?utm_medium=copy_link

[Updawg 2275]

Never fourget what Ida did to the east coast.

Hate to say it but we would have already applied for disaster relief from the feds and then bitched about big gov.

They haven’t

[Updawg 2275]

Hate to say it but we would have already applied for disaster relief from the feds and then bitched about big gov.

They haven’t

[WBT 20628]

Strange take.  They will.

[ConferenceRoom 6144]

7 hours ago, Updawg said:

Hate to say it but we would have already applied for disaster relief from the feds and then bitched about big gov.

They haven’t

 

7 hours ago, Updawg said:

7 hours ago, Updawg said:

Hate to say it but we would have already applied for disaster relief from the feds and then bitched about big gov.

They haven’t

 

[ConferenceRoom 6144]

Just now, ConferenceRoom said:

 

 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

13 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

 

2, 1, x

None of those new ones is going near land, the thing in the Caribbean almost certainly won't form much, and if it does, will stay south.

So a bit of a break on threatening storms.

Edited September 2, 2021 by phdhorn

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

On 9/1/2021 at 8:10 AM, Francisco 2.0 said:

But wait, it gets better.  From 2017:

https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2017/08/cleveland_man_drilled_holes_in.html

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

"If you mix the (cyanide and hydrochloric acid), you basically have the cyanide gas of World War I," Cochran said. "It certainly would produce a toxic vapor that could kill."

Employees told police that the released chemicals "are severe enough to cause a large scale catastrophe, and Dagley knew what he was doing," the report says.

Potential cyanide poisoning is the reason why the 27-year-old security guard who found the leaks was taken to University Hospitals, according to Cochran and the report.

Her injuries and current condition were not immediately available, but Cochran believes she has been released from the hospital.

Firefighters and a hazmat specialist went to the building the night of the break-in, and Cleveland police and firefighters also notified the Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the report says.

Cochran told cleveland.com that the business hired a hazmat firm to oversee clean-up. Within 36 hours, that process was complete and the Ohio EPA determined all chemicals were contained inside the building, with no exposure to the neighborhood, according to an EPA spokesman.

The police report does not say how Dagley managed to break into the building. Surveillance showed him walking into the property around 6 p.m., drilling holes into the containers, then leaving about 15 minutes later, the report says.

"Thank god we have security guards there 24/7," Cochran said. "Otherwise, it wouldn't have been discovered until (the next morning), and it would've been late."

A warrant was issued for Dagley last week, but he hasn't been arrested, court records show.

Police didn't outline a possible motive and Cochran declined to share details due to a pending civil case in Wayne County.

Court records there and in Cuyahoga County indicate that Dagley and his companies are locked in a financial dispute over the property, its mortgage, and Cleveland Plating's lease, among other things.

"He wants us to settle and we won't pay, that's why I think he's done all this," Cochran said.

Cleveland Plating's current owners asked a judge for a temporary restraining order against Dagley earlier this year, saying that he entered the building April 8 and put locks on almost all the doors, court records show. The judge denied that request.

About two months later, Dagley was charged with misdemeanor assault after he returned to the property with two other people and broke into the business through a roll door, the reports and court documents say.

A security guard told police that an irate Dagley yelled at him through a crack in an office door, then slammed the door into his knee and punched him in the mouth, the report says.

One of the other men said he rode to the business with Dagley that day to "help him lock the building up," the report says.

The assault case is still pending in Cleveland Municipal Court, court records show. Dagley's next court appearance is scheduled for Sept. 7.

 

guy probably has mental health issues but doesn't excuse anything. Weird that a guy from Ohio is driving around in LA after a hurricane accosting reporters. I assumed it was your run of the mill southern nut. 

[UTexasFight 9511]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

guy probably has mental health issues but doesn't excuse anything. Weird that a guy from Ohio is driving around in LA after a hurricane accosting reporters. I assumed it was your run of the mill southern nut. 

To be fair, I think the only sure fire way to tell the difference between a run of the mill Ohio nut and a run of the mill southern nut… is the latter isn’t wearing an Ohio St jersey.

[Stella Link 534]

14 hours ago, Blotto said:

I dont like the looks of Larry. Not one bit.

All business. All the time. 

 

I prefer this Larry.

 

[crash_davis 23114]

Motherfucking bodies in motherfucking trees!!!!!!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cow-stuck-tree-hurricane-ida-204246293.html

Tuesday evening, St. Bernard Parish shared a video of classic Louisiana neighborly care: Road Yard Chief of Operations Louis Pomes and parish government employees Tyler Acosta, David Palmer and Roy Ragan Sr. saved a cow that was stuck in a tree.

 

 

[The Ace of Aces 5192]

Ida remnants have killed at least 23 in NY/NJ/PA. It's a disaster up here, and those tornadoes last night were legit EF 3s/4s. 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

There is a pretty clear meteorological explanation as to why Ida was so severe in the Northeast, more than usual:

1) There was a plume of tropical moisture that extended off of the Gulf Coast, across Florida, and up the Eastern Seaboard.
2) A cold front was coming in from the NW (Ontario and Quebec), pretty common for them this time of year.
3) The Jet Stream dipped into the Mid-Atlantic following the frontal boundary.

Each of these ingredients helped to "supercharge" Ida when it got near the Atlantic Coast... you didn't hear much about it the day or two before, lots of rain but nothing like when it got into Virginia.  And actually these ingredients were very similar to what happened when Sandy went into the NYC area.

As Ida moved across the Southeast, it was farther from water, so it wasn't pulling in a lot of moisture, so it remained kind of benign (except for heavy rain).  But when it got to Virginia, it started pulling a lot of ocean air in, including the very saturated plume.  So it essentially got a nitro boost of new fuel, rather than rain itself out.  Then when it got into Maryland and NE from that, it hit both the frontal boundary and the Jet.  This is exactly the scenario in Texas in the early spring when tornadoes and severe weather is at its peak.  Both the Jet and the front really kicked the air upwards, rapidly cooling it and producing immense turbulence.  So Ida behaved then more like a spring severe frontal storm found in mid-continent in the early spring.  Normally short, weak EF-0 or EF-1 brief tornadoes, almost exclusively created in hurricanes from friction with the land producing horizontal spinning (which eventually goes vertical for reasons we still don't yet understand), became EF-2, 3 and even 4 wide-track tornadoes (the one going through the Annapolis area was 600 yards wide - that's over 1/3 of a mile!), which traveled some 40 miles (in one incarnation or another) lasting well over a half hour.  Same for the tornadoes in PA and  NJ. Not typical of hurricane tornadoes, and of course fairly rare in that part of the country.

Once Ida moved out of the frontal boundary and under the Jet, it diminished in its severity, but still was pulling in moisture at a huge rate.  All of the turbulence combined with what was already tropical energy just caused a rain bomb going almost directly through the heart of Manhattan (and esp. across in NJ - esp. Newark).  Up to 14" within 5-6 hours in some spots!  That takes a lot of energy, and the tropical/Jet/frontal combo created the "perfect storm" scenario.  Again, not all that different from Sandy except temperature (remember the front hitting Sandy was "frozen" with snow and sleet).

Anyway, this was a result of a rare lining up of several factors that really transformed the storm from "tropical" to "continental" and it behaved as such.

It can happen, and did in this case.

[Storm the Field 5296]

My in-laws roof has seen better days:

[Neonmoon 38129]

I think they got this one dialed in

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Just one run of the GFS but dang that wouldn't be optimal for eastern Louisiana.

 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

On 9/3/2021 at 3:24 PM, Storm the Field said:

My in-laws roof has seen better days:

Live shot of @ROFL BOX

[MissingInAction 25116]

Larry starting to look pretty radical.

[phdhorn 6224]

Larry's still gonna be a fish storm - there's a front in the NE U.S. that'll keep it away.  It might skirt the eastern end of Newfoundland though as a diminshed storm.

The thing in the Yucatan originally was modeled to stay south, but models have changed.  It might drift N/NE into - wait for it - E. Louisiana.  However much of the modeling says that this one will be fairly week.  Some wind shear and dry air in the Gulf now, so if it does ramp up, at this point not much > than TS level.

Of course that's today.  We'll see by Tues. or so.

[LTtxfan 49288]

2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Larry starting to look pretty radical.

@Radical Larry needs to take it easy... 😋

[Radical Larry 28649]

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

GFS still sees it today, except into a different part of Louisiana (or Port Arthur) now and three days later. 

[Guest Lobo]

On 9/4/2021 at 6:10 PM, Neonmoon said:

I think they got this one dialed in

Didn't realize Greg Davis went to go work for NOAA.  

D.J. Monroe in a brilliant support role.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Didn't realize Greg Davis went to go work for NOAA.  

D.J. Monroe in a brilliant support role.

 

[Guest Lobo]

First off, well played.  Second, I teed it up---you nailed it.  But I demand assist rep! 

But seriously, what I love about is there was actually an offensive "package" of plays for D.J. called "Hurricane"  

And this is all quite hilarious and we haven't won a conference championship in 12 years.  The longest draught in Texas history since 1930-1942.  

 

[bigshark88 388]

Subscribed. Shit.

[Hate 20120]

There is now a 70% chance of tropical development in the Western GOM early next week.

The models are not calling for any significant development, but a weak tropical storm is not out of the question.  At any rate, parts of Texas along the coast and possibly inland SE Texas have a chance for a lot of rain next week.  Enjoy the dry air while you can.

And from Jeff Lindner from the Harris County Flood Control District.

Heavy rainfall increasingly likely along the TX coast early next week.

Tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the SW Gulf late this weekend or early next week.

Big shift in the weather pattern coming to SE TX with current cool mornings (59 at Crockett this morning) quickly being replaced with a tropical air mass late Saturday into Sunday. Plume of deep tropical moisture currently across the central and southern Gulf of Mexico will begin to shift west and approach the TX coast late on Saturday and then begin to surge inland on Sunday. Rain chances will be limited to the coast on Saturday and then spreading inland on Sunday. Trough axis will set up near the coast late Sunday while tropical entity in the SW or W Gulf moves NW. Low level speed convergence near the coast late Sunday night will likely lead to significant shower and thunderstorms develop near and offshore with some of this activity moving inland. Moisture profiles become saturated by Sunday afternoon and excessive rainfall amounts will be possible Sunday night-Tuesday with waves or bands of storms. Will have to closely watch for an organized banding of the rainfall and where this may occur.

Rainfall totals of 5-8 inches will be likely near the coast with 3-5 inches widespread south of I-10 and lower amounts north of I-10. This is subject to change and spread further inland based on any formation of a tropical system. Isolate totals, especially near the coast could be significant. Many times in these sort of set ups, heavy rains near the coast can “rob” inland areas of a deep moisture feed and reduce inland rainfall amounts.

SW Gulf:

NHC has raised the chances for tropical development in the SW/W Gulf to 70%. While the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea is currently disorganized, it is forecasted to move into the Bay of Campeche and then SW Gulf this weekend where conditions appears more favorable for development. Global forecast models have been inconsistent in where any surface feature may develop and track, but ensemble support has been increasing. This will need to be monitored closely as the expected rainfall event along the TX coast could be impacted by the formation of a defined surface low which would help to band the rainfall on the eastern flank of the feature as well as concentrate some of the heaviest rains near the center.

Monitor forecasts closely over the weekend as changes are likely.

[Zwylde 812]

Th

Scenario A: Coast hugger

In this case the storm moves close to the Texas coast on Monday, but perhaps doesn’t come fully ashore. It then moves fairly rapidly to the north and then northeast, bringing its center close to the Houston metro area on Tuesday or Wednesday. In this case we would see higher tides—although probably not too great of a storm surge—and wind gusts of tropical storm force in the metro area. However, the heaviest rainfall would likely fall off the Texas coast and potentially in southeastern Louisiana. In this scenario Houston might see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with the 20-inch bullseye remaining offshore. 

Scenario B: Tour of Texas

In terms of rainfall, this scenario is more ominous. A likely weak tropical storm would move into South Texas on Monday or so, and slow down for a couple of days. The center would remain close enough to the coast that the storm would be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. In this case, Houston might expect 5 to 15 inches of rain, with a 20-inch bullseye of rainfall coming somewhere in the area from Corpus Christi to Beaumont. But it’s impossible to say where. The potential for heavy rainfall would linger through Wednesday. Winds and seas would be much less of a factor.

Scenario 😄 Riding the Rio

It still is possible that the low moves into northern Mexico and basically tracks along the Rio Grande River, dying out after a few days of being inland. In this case the Texas coast would see some moderate rainfall for a few days, but totals for most areas would probably be 2-4 inches, or even less. This scenario seems a little less likely at this time, but it would certainly have the most benign effects for Houston.

ree scenarios

The map below shows the European model’s ensemble forecast for the evolution of the tropical system, which has been designated Invest 94L. It shows tracks from Friday night through Tuesday evening, and I’ve boxed what I consider three of the most likely possibilities. Let’s discuss each of them.

  Three potential scenarios for Invest 94L. (Weathernerds.org/Space City Weather)

Scenario A: Coast hugger

In this case the storm moves close to the Texas coast on Monday, but perhaps doesn’t come fully ashore. It then moves fairly rapidly to the north and then northeast, bringing its center close to the Houston metro area on Tuesday or Wednesday. In this case we would see higher tides—although probably not too great of a storm surge—and wind gusts of tropical storm force in the metro area. However, the heaviest rainfall would likely fall off the Texas coast and potentially in southeastern Louisiana. In this scenario Houston might see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with the 20-inch bullseye remaining offshore. 

Scenario B: Tour of Texas

In terms of rainfall, this scenario is more ominous. A likely weak tropical storm would move into South Texas on Monday or so, and slow down for a couple of days. The center would remain close enough to the coast that the storm would be able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. In this case, Houston might expect 5 to 15 inches of rain, with a 20-inch bullseye of rainfall coming somewhere in the area from Corpus Christi to Beaumont. But it’s impossible to say where. The potential for heavy rainfall would linger through Wednesday. Winds and seas would be much less of a factor.

Scenario 😄 Riding the Rio

It still is possible that the low moves into northern Mexico and basically tracks along the Rio Grande River, dying out after a few days of being inland. In this case the Texas coast would see some moderate rainfall for a few days, but totals for most areas would probably be 2-4 inches, or even less. This scenario seems a little less likely at this time, but it would certainly have the most benign effects for Houston.

  This is the latest six-day rainfall forecast from NOAA, but it is only a very rough guide, and localized amounts could be much higher. (Weather Bell)

Conclusions

So what actually happens? I wish I could tell you. But we’re talking about a tropical wave that has yet to form a semblance of a circulation, so the forecast models are going to struggle with its track. After that, it’s not entirely clear how much the wind shear currently hampering its organization will weaken over the next couple of days as the system moves northwest or north toward Texas. And these are just the beginning of our questions.

The bottom line is that Saturday should see fine weather in Houston. Sunday should start out sunny as well before rain and thunderstorm chances increase during the afternoon and evening hours. After that heavy rainfall is possible through Wednesday, and we just really can’t say how much. But this is a forecast you should be monitoring closely. We’ll have an update later this afternoon or evening.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Not looking good for SE Texas next week. Almost certainly not as bad as Harvey but a similar setup with a “weak” storm stuck near the coast pumping rain onshore for a few days, maybe with 20 inch bullseyes in some places. Yikes. 
 

Shit, 9/11 and Allison both came in the same year, why not combine the 20 year anniversaries?

[UT_OB1 2224]

25 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Not looking good for SE Texas next week. Almost certainly not as bad as Harvey but a similar setup with a “weak” storm stuck near the coast pumping rain onshore for a few days, maybe with 20 inch bullseyes in some places. Yikes. 
 

Shit, 9/11 and Allison both came in the same year, why not combine the 20 year anniversaries?

I see statements like this a lot. Harvey was an exceptional storm for the total volume of water that it dropped. Statistically, it is unlikely that our great great great grandkids will be alive when a storm like that hit Texas again. 

Edited September 11, 2021 by UT_OB1

[Bender Bending Rodriguez 1693]

24 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

I see statements like this a lot. Harvey was an exceptional storm for the total volume of water that it dropped. Statistically, it is unlikely that our great great great grandkids will be alive when a storm like that hit Texas again. 

I agree that Harvey should be considered the exception and not the type of storm we should expect other storms to develop into, but Allison was a thousand year storm only to see a worse storm happen 16 years later. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

2 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

I see statements like this a lot. Harvey was an exceptional storm for the total volume of water that it dropped. Statistically, it is unlikely that our great great great grandkids will be alive when a storm like that hit Texas again. 

Agreed, but never say never is always a safe thing to think. 

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

Both cars full of gas and stocked up with supplies down in Galveston.   
 

hopefully it’s just a “mild” rain event, because not much time left for a mass evacuation things start to heat up.