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2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

Rip76

By Rip76
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Gatorubet
Gatorubet

I am sitting in my SUV in the driveway, charging my phone, smoking my 1:1 CBD/THC vape and having my next-to-last cold beer. Already used app to initiate State Farm claim. My shingles no longer

HornOnTheBayou
HornOnTheBayou

I forgot OU was going to New Orleans. That would explain why the storm is being sucked in that direction. I hope forecasters are taking that into account when they plot those paths.

South Austin
South Austin

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TejanoAtUT

TejanoAtUT 15

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Yeah, I have a feeling the 'ol rain shield of dominance will keep the rain away from Austin.

Space City Weather posted this a few minutes ago:

 

As we note on the SCW Flood Scale page, a stage 3 event:

Our third stage is probably the most difficult stage to define. These are storms that may be quite memorable for parts of the Houston area but not for the entire area. These are basically larger, more damaging versions of Stage 2 events. You could expect perhaps hundreds of homes flooding in multiple neighborhoods during Stage 3 events.

In this situation, we believe we have enough evidence in model data to support a decent risk for a stage 3 event somewhere in our area or region. 

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GreenspointTexas

GreenspointTexas 9598

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Every time a hurricane or storm appears in gulf:

 

austonians - oh no!!!! We gonna get hammered! Pack up the succulents and stock up on topo

 

houstonians - …………..

 

(storm clearly isnt going to make it to centex and is usually headed to somewhere between matagorda and beaumont)

 

austonians - aw shucks, we aint gonna get shit. I hope i can get an inch to water my lawn. Its so dry here

 

houstonians - …………

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9428

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Every time a hurricane or storm appears in gulf:

 

austonians - oh no!!!! We gonna get hammered! Pack up the succulents and stock up on topo

 

houstonians - …………..

 

(storm clearly isnt going to make it to centex and is usually headed to somewhere between matagorda and beaumont)

 

austonians - aw shucks, we aint gonna get shit. I hope i can get an inch to water my lawn. Its so dry here

 

houstonians - …………

On the bright side, I have enough topo to get me through the rest of the year.

 

not sure when I’m going to get around to moving the succulents back outside… pretty busy week shaping up

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miguelito

miguelito 11254

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So of course, KXAN needs the clicks/eyeballs.

TS-Nicholas-5.jpg?w=959&h=541&crop=1

Well I just saw this at storm2k.  I don't know the acronyms, but this is the 18Z EPS Ensemble Run.

Image may or may not load.  These runs seem a little further west.

https://i.imgur.com/VSpEaAZ.gif

Edited by miguelito
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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

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12 minutes ago, Xian said:

Weather nerds just started freaking out. Apparently a new center just formed 200 miles northeast of where the NHC modeled their cone off of, which will change the track / intensity.   The feeling is the NHC will release a special advisory soon. 

And it’s out…

 

Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHE

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9428

Posted
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17 minutes ago, Xian said:

Weather nerds just started freaking out. Apparently a new center just formed 200 miles northeast of where the NHC modeled their cone off of, which will change the track / intensity.   The feeling is the NHC will release a special advisory soon. 

Live behind the scenes look at head weather nerd:

 

 

55BA22D7-EDD7-4315-8B53-EB31669F883F.gif

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Can someone post the latest Euro rain model?  Looks like it settled down from Noah’s Ark to streets get wet. 

Here ya go.    Heavy rain in west Houston.  Biblical rain in lufkin and north central Louisiana (not as bad as earlier models though).  This will change again  the main thing to keep is mind is that someone is going to get a fuck ton of rain  

 

 

2A095525-600C-4966-854E-02EDA344E33D.png

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Xian said:

Latest Euro run might raise some eyebrows. 
never seen sixty one fucking inches of rainfall projected from storm before…..  would beat the Harvey record, I believe.

 

 

edit: No one freak out  it’s still early. I would just start preparing   

 

 

61.png.c7113a7f3a812365825a7bcdc33f75cb.png

Maiotaku Timely Confessions - MaiOtaku Anime Not Going To Happen GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

Sometimes models get a little crazy.  Kind of like when they detect heavy hail, their rain totals get into the 100's.

Significant new info:

- Storm tracks continue to push a bit east (yawn, surprise, whatever).  Less likely Austin will get much.  One reason is that the center of Nicholas reorganized and re-formed about 150 m. NE of where it was.  
- Storm will not slow down somewhere in Sabine area or whatever, now forecast to keep moving, and in fact speed up.
- This means yeah there will definitely be some flooding along Centex coast, but probably not catastrophic.

My guess is ATX will get a few areas with 2"-3" (if they're in a tropical downpour or two) but most of us, not a whole lot, maybe half inch.

Back if/when this changes.

Edit:  However, one thing I don't like about the new scenario is that Nicholas is forecast to be a little farther out in the Gulf, for longer.  Although models are still keeping it as a strong TS, I'm worried it could strengthen to a hurricane - this happened with the last 3 storms in the Gulf (exceeded model forecast) due to the very warm Gulf water (84° at least) around the Western Gulf coast.

If this happens and Nicholas slows down, flooding could be bad in a given area.  But hoping that everyone will get by with maybe 7-8 inches at the worst down there on the coast. 

We'll see.  At least the new info puts it out of the region by later tomorrow evening.

Edited by phdhorn
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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1545

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Xian said:

Wind picking up in Kemah….  Gonna need to head home soon to clear the last part of the yard/porch. 
Debating what to do with the furniture on the upper veranda. It’s heavy stuff thats a bitch to get through the F2C windows. 

Sounds like you would have a staff to help you, maybe the grounds crew, pull the kitchen staff if need be, should be good.

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Hate

Hate 20106

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I went to HEB early this morning and got stuff for potato soup and some other stuff for chili.  I've also gone to Spec's and gotten gas for the generator.  We are forecast to be in what ever is left of the eyewall soon after it makes landfall, so we might get some pretty good wind gusts.  I'm prepared if we lose power for a day or two, which is what I would expect the worst to be with this storm. 

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Hanrahan

Hanrahan 1306

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

We just logged .1 inches in San Antonio. Winds gusting up to 10 mph. Neighbor has some sticks in his yard that definitely weren’t there before.
 

I’ll continue to check in here so that y’all know I’m okay. 

Stay strong and keep hunkered down.  Now is the time to keep calm.

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

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1 minute ago, Dewey said:

When I lived in Galveston,  this is how I judged the severity of a storm. If they stop trash collection,  I should probably think about buying some floaties 

 

Good point. Galveston has the best trash pickup I’ve ever seen. They are always on time and will grab ANYTHING on your standard pickup day.  

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