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EPL 2021-22

maninblack

By maninblack
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Without comment  

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This was at the Londoner in Addison this weekend.  Directions to watch matches  

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Dutch

Dutch 4465

Posted
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Erased?

https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4674347/premier-league-without-var-arsenal-in-champions-leagueman-united-out-of-europeleeds-relegated

Spoiler

We take only the first VAR overturn in each game, because the calculation considers that any subsequent VAR incident wouldn't have happened and the whole direction of the game has been altered. (Think of it like a Marvel timeline, or the plot of any time travel movie.)

The VAR decision is then reverted to the original on-field call -- so if a goal is disallowed for offside, it's given as a goal.

If a penalty has been cancelled, it is considered to have been awarded and scored, unless the team in question has a penalty-conversion record of 50% or below over the season. For instance, Burnley and Watford missed half the spot kicks they were awarded, with Brighton on 57.1% and Man United on 60%. If 50% or below, a penalty may be judged to have been missed.

If a team has been awarded a goal through a penalty or an incorrect offside through VAR, the goal is disallowed.

We then took into account a series of factors before settling on a predicted outcome:

Team form: Results in the previous six matches give an indication of how a team has been playing generally.

Time of incident: For instance, if an incident happens late in the game, it's less likely that the scoreline would change again after this point.

xG at time of incident: This allows us to take into account which team has been creating the better chances and is in the ascendancy.

Team strength: As well as form, a team's general strength plays a part. This factors in league position, and a team's goal-scoring and defensive records across the season.

Impact of incident: For example, a red-card decision being reversed may change the outcome of a match.

These results were then used to modify the table and work out what impact VAR has had on teams' positions this season, with the arrows indicating if their league position is better or worse without VAR.

The big winners without VAR
Arsenal suffered Champions League heartbreak at the hands of arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur, pipped on the final day. But it could have been a different story without VAR.

Arsenal gain four points across the season, while Spurs were one of the biggest losers without VAR and drop two points. That six-point swing sees the Gunners finish in fourth, a comfortable four points clear of their neighbours. The race for the Champions League wouldn't even have gone down to the final day.

In a quirk of VAR, only West Ham had more VAR decisions in their favour than Arsenal, yet it's when the negative decisions came that really hurt Arsenal.

Two in particular changed the course of key matches. Arsenal were 1-0 up at home to Manchester City on New Year's Day when a VAR decision gave the visitors a penalty. That goal changed the course of the game and led to a City win; the VAR Effect Table has this as an Arsenal win. The second decision came in a home loss to Brighton, with a Gabriel Martinelli goal disallowed for offside when Arsenal were 1-0 down in the 45th minute; again this is calculated as a win for Mikel Arteta's men.

The overturns that went for Spurs' include Everton's cancelled penalty at Goodison Park, in a game which finished goalless, and a spot kick awarded to Antonio Conte's men at home to Burnley when the score was also 0-0. Added to that, Spurs had a Harry Kane offside goal allowed in what became a 3-2 win at Newcastle. That said, they did have decisions go against them, such as Kane's goal ruled offside in the draw at Southampton.

Arsenal might consider themselves hard done by, but it is in fact Leicester City who gain the most points without VAR calls. The six points gained by the Foxes catapults them up two places from eighth to sixth, and a spot in the Europa League. That comes at the expense of Manchester United, who like Spurs gained two points from VAR and drop out of Europe completely.

Leicester were 1-0 up away to Newcastle when the VAR overturned a disallowed Bruno Guimaraes goal as the Magpies went on to win 2-1, while Brendan Rodgers' men also had an Ademola Lookman goal chalked off for offside in a draw at Leeds United.

Among the decisions to go Man United's way were a late winner for Everton ruled out for offside, and a red card shown to Brighton's Lewis Dunk at Old Trafford when United were 1-0 up but the Seagulls in the ascendancy. Most importantly, there was the disallowed late winner for Leicester at Man United for a Kelechi Iheanacho foul, which effectively enabled the points swing between the clubs.

Everton also lost out badly through VAR calls, and that's without factoring in decisions that didn't get overturned such as Rodri's handball for Man City, for which PGMOL, the refereeing body, apologised. Like Arsenal, Everton are four points better off without VAR and climb seven points away from the relegation zone. Key decisions that went against Everton were the cancelled penalty at home to Spurs, plus the winner at Man United.

Of the other teams to receive points without VAR, Brentford gain two to finish 12th, while Burnley, Manchester City and Norwich are all one point better off.

As Liverpool's final points tally is unchanged on 92, it means Man City win the Premier League by two points rather than one.

In the first half of the season Newcastle United were one of the biggest winners without VAR, but decisions have evened themselves out since and the Magpies are now on the same points.

West Ham United had 10 VAR decisions in their favour, more than any other club, but their points tally is unaltered, as is Chelsea's.


The big losers without VAR
Leeds United celebrated survival on the final day with victory at Brentford, but they might have VAR to thank for retaining their Premier League status -- because the VAR Effect Table shows them relegated.

A couple of factors come into play here as Leeds lose two points without VAR. First there's the home draw with Leicester which goes down as a loss, then the an injury-time penalty given to Leeds against Crystal Palace when the score was goalless; two of the key calls which went the way of the Yorkshire side.

Added to that, Burnley also gained one point, and among a series of VAR decisions was the second-half Burnley penalty revoked when the Clarets trailed 1-0 against Arsenal. That three-point swing is enough to put the clubs both on 35, and Leeds finish in the bottom three on goal difference.


It was a close call for Southampton, too. The Saints are three points worse off without VAR, the joint-most along with relegated Watford and mid-table Wolverhampton Wanderers. The loss of those points left Southampton hovering just a single point above the relegation zone. It could have been a much closer call but for decisions like the late equalising VAR penalty at Newcastle when they seemed destined for a 2-1 defeat.

Even though Wolves finished with more VAR decisions against them than in their favour (-2 net), the timing of these calls means they actually lose two points without VAR. costing them a place in the top half of the table.

Watford, meanwhile, slump to rock bottom as they suffer a four-point swing with Norwich City. Norwich had 11 VAR decisions against them, more than any other team, but such was the nature of their poor form they were only a single point better off without VAR.

 

Edited by Dutch
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Longhornfan1024

Longhornfan1024 1707

Posted
Posted
https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4674347/premier-league-without-var-arsenal-in-champions-leagueman-united-out-of-europeleeds-relegated
Spoiler

We take only the first VAR overturn in each game, because the calculation considers that any subsequent VAR incident wouldn't have happened and the whole direction of the game has been altered. (Think of it like a Marvel timeline, or the plot of any time travel movie.)
The VAR decision is then reverted to the original on-field call -- so if a goal is disallowed for offside, it's given as a goal.
If a penalty has been cancelled, it is considered to have been awarded and scored, unless the team in question has a penalty-conversion record of 50% or below over the season. For instance, Burnley and Watford missed half the spot kicks they were awarded, with Brighton on 57.1% and Man United on 60%. If 50% or below, a penalty may be judged to have been missed.
If a team has been awarded a goal through a penalty or an incorrect offside through VAR, the goal is disallowed.
We then took into account a series of factors before settling on a predicted outcome:
Team form: Results in the previous six matches give an indication of how a team has been playing generally.
Time of incident: For instance, if an incident happens late in the game, it's less likely that the scoreline would change again after this point.
xG at time of incident: This allows us to take into account which team has been creating the better chances and is in the ascendancy.
Team strength: As well as form, a team's general strength plays a part. This factors in league position, and a team's goal-scoring and defensive records across the season.
Impact of incident: For example, a red-card decision being reversed may change the outcome of a match.
These results were then used to modify the table and work out what impact VAR has had on teams' positions this season, with the arrows indicating if their league position is better or worse without VAR.
The big winners without VAR
Arsenal suffered Champions League heartbreak at the hands of arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur, pipped on the final day. But it could have been a different story without VAR.
Arsenal gain four points across the season, while Spurs were one of the biggest losers without VAR and drop two points. That six-point swing sees the Gunners finish in fourth, a comfortable four points clear of their neighbours. The race for the Champions League wouldn't even have gone down to the final day.
In a quirk of VAR, only West Ham had more VAR decisions in their favour than Arsenal, yet it's when the negative decisions came that really hurt Arsenal.
Two in particular changed the course of key matches. Arsenal were 1-0 up at home to Manchester City on New Year's Day when a VAR decision gave the visitors a penalty. That goal changed the course of the game and led to a City win; the VAR Effect Table has this as an Arsenal win. The second decision came in a home loss to Brighton, with a Gabriel Martinelli goal disallowed for offside when Arsenal were 1-0 down in the 45th minute; again this is calculated as a win for Mikel Arteta's men.
The overturns that went for Spurs' include Everton's cancelled penalty at Goodison Park, in a game which finished goalless, and a spot kick awarded to Antonio Conte's men at home to Burnley when the score was also 0-0. Added to that, Spurs had a Harry Kane offside goal allowed in what became a 3-2 win at Newcastle. That said, they did have decisions go against them, such as Kane's goal ruled offside in the draw at Southampton.
Arsenal might consider themselves hard done by, but it is in fact Leicester City who gain the most points without VAR calls. The six points gained by the Foxes catapults them up two places from eighth to sixth, and a spot in the Europa League. That comes at the expense of Manchester United, who like Spurs gained two points from VAR and drop out of Europe completely.
Leicester were 1-0 up away to Newcastle when the VAR overturned a disallowed Bruno Guimaraes goal as the Magpies went on to win 2-1, while Brendan Rodgers' men also had an Ademola Lookman goal chalked off for offside in a draw at Leeds United.
Among the decisions to go Man United's way were a late winner for Everton ruled out for offside, and a red card shown to Brighton's Lewis Dunk at Old Trafford when United were 1-0 up but the Seagulls in the ascendancy. Most importantly, there was the disallowed late winner for Leicester at Man United for a Kelechi Iheanacho foul, which effectively enabled the points swing between the clubs.
Everton also lost out badly through VAR calls, and that's without factoring in decisions that didn't get overturned such as Rodri's handball for Man City, for which PGMOL, the refereeing body, apologised. Like Arsenal, Everton are four points better off without VAR and climb seven points away from the relegation zone. Key decisions that went against Everton were the cancelled penalty at home to Spurs, plus the winner at Man United.
Of the other teams to receive points without VAR, Brentford gain two to finish 12th, while Burnley, Manchester City and Norwich are all one point better off.
As Liverpool's final points tally is unchanged on 92, it means Man City win the Premier League by two points rather than one.
In the first half of the season Newcastle United were one of the biggest winners without VAR, but decisions have evened themselves out since and the Magpies are now on the same points.
West Ham United had 10 VAR decisions in their favour, more than any other club, but their points tally is unaltered, as is Chelsea's.

The big losers without VAR
Leeds United celebrated survival on the final day with victory at Brentford, but they might have VAR to thank for retaining their Premier League status -- because the VAR Effect Table shows them relegated.
A couple of factors come into play here as Leeds lose two points without VAR. First there's the home draw with Leicester which goes down as a loss, then the an injury-time penalty given to Leeds against Crystal Palace when the score was goalless; two of the key calls which went the way of the Yorkshire side.
Added to that, Burnley also gained one point, and among a series of VAR decisions was the second-half Burnley penalty revoked when the Clarets trailed 1-0 against Arsenal. That three-point swing is enough to put the clubs both on 35, and Leeds finish in the bottom three on goal difference.

It was a close call for Southampton, too. The Saints are three points worse off without VAR, the joint-most along with relegated Watford and mid-table Wolverhampton Wanderers. The loss of those points left Southampton hovering just a single point above the relegation zone. It could have been a much closer call but for decisions like the late equalising VAR penalty at Newcastle when they seemed destined for a 2-1 defeat.
Even though Wolves finished with more VAR decisions against them than in their favour (-2 net), the timing of these calls means they actually lose two points without VAR. costing them a place in the top half of the table.
Watford, meanwhile, slump to rock bottom as they suffer a four-point swing with Norwich City. Norwich had 11 VAR decisions against them, more than any other team, but such was the nature of their poor form they were only a single point better off without VAR.

 

That's some of the dumbest fucking shit I've ever seen. A perfect example of why I stopped reading ESPN a long time ago.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

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WBT

WBT 20559

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Posted

Huddersfield given a yellow for simulation.  I don't know, I'd lean more toward a penalty.  The defender's leg was out and if the attacker had run through it I think the penalty would have been given.  Instead he dove over the leg to avoid contact.

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Captain Ron

Captain Ron 12862

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57 minutes ago, WBT said:

Huddersfield given a yellow for simulation.  I don't know, I'd lean more toward a penalty.  The defender's leg was out and if the attacker had run through it I think the penalty would have been given.  Instead he dove over the leg to avoid contact.

You’re talking about this one, right?

 
IMHO, that’s a penalty, everything you said, trying to avoid contact makes it look like a flop. 

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maninblack

maninblack 7974

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3 hours ago, Captain Ron said:

I can understand calling that a flop in real time. But VAR has to fix that. That’s an easy penalty in replays  

VAR is a joke across football. Benzema was offside yesterday. This guy is as hit. I'm glad it's around but Jesus these idiots implement it like fucking idiots across the continent

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32840

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That particular VAR miss is dangerous because it will make attackers in that same situation less likely to avoid the hard contact. If you told an attacker ahead of time that in order to get the call you deserve with promotion to the Premier League on the line you will have to kick through the defender's leg they would do it every time. 

Also, the Americans who picked a soccer team in their 30s making fun of City fans not being loyal are hilarious. Bandwagoners ripping on hometown fans. Awesome.

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Captain Ron

Captain Ron 12862

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Posted
4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

That particular VAR miss is dangerous because it will make attackers in that same situation less likely to avoid the hard contact. If you told an attacker ahead of time that in order to get the call you deserve with promotion to the Premier League on the line you will have to kick through the defender's leg they would do it every time. 

There is something like this already - the guy getting fouled while preparing a shot in the box. Most of the time (like 19 out 20) the ref lets the contact go with no call if the player gets a shot off. This basically lets defenders know that if the guy can a shot off, they can go just about full bore into the attacker. Fair? Right? And yes, slightly different, but it happens all the time.

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