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Cheating Thread

Eskimohorn

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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Finally, a baseball writer is spitting truth about the Astros cheat game and the cause/effect comparison between sign-stealing and improved spin rates. 

Spoiler

 

Suspect spin rates: Trevor Bauer heads group of pitchers who have made improbable RPM gains in 2021

GettyImages-1322766272-1024x682.jpg
By Michael Salfino Jun 11, 2021comment-icon.png 22 save-icon.png

Baseball has had it with pitchers having their way with hitters. After already adjusting the ball, they didn’t expect an epidemic in substances being applied to it by pitchers looking to increase RPMs (spin rate).

Unlike the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which was relatively crude and, at a minimum, highly suspect in regards to its overall effectiveness, this quest for RPMs and the related movement actually is tilting the playing field. We can see it in the Statcast data. Pitches are spinning more and thus moving more. And pitchers can calibrate their cheating with these substances precisely, seeing in real time what works well and what does not result in RPMs, and effective RPMs (translation of spin into movement).

So this is far worse than what the Astros did and even worse than steroids. By “worse,” I’m not making some moral judgment but instead referencing competitive advantage. Some guys were Hall of Famers at using steroids and others barely benefited. They certainly couldn’t tell immediately how to maximize any benefit, as pitchers are able to today. For the reasons stated in the link above, neuroscience says that hitters lost more by short-circuiting their entire hitting process than they gained by knowing what pitch was coming (counterintuitive, I know). And the better the hitter, the less it helped, say the experts. The data supports this not only with the Astros, but the other famous sign-stealing team, the 1951 Giants.

Adding RPMs is no different than adding MPH. It’s just that instead of increased speed, it’s movement. Simple. For the purposes of today’s exercise, I looked at four-seam fastball rates because pitchers with even limited innings in 2019 gave us enough of a sample to reasonably average compared with their 2021 averages. It’s possible that some pitchers would use substances just on breaking balls; but if they are cheating, they’re probably just applying it to the ball no matter what the pitch selection.

I want to be careful to point out that I’m not accusing any of the high RPM pitchers of cheating. I have no idea whether they are. Maybe they just naturally generate them. Remember, any pitcher in history with a riding fastball has had high RPMs. I’m sure Tom Seaver’s were off the chart, but we’ll never know for sure.

I didn’t want to look at just raw RPMs for that reason. Instead, I wanted to see who has increased them the most to get to this elite level (a four-seamer of more than 2,400 RPMs). If you roster one of these guys, they may not be cheating, but you have to be worried about how they gained all of these revolutions and whether it will last. Here’s the chart, via Statcast. We’ve sorted by the percentage of spin gained in 2021 compared with 2019.

RANK
  
PLAYER
  
4-SEAM AVG SPIN
  
2019 SPIN
  
DIFFERENCE
  
1
2822
2410
17.10%
2
2461
2161
13.88%
3
2626
2456
6.92%
4
2611
2449
6.61%
5
2424
2279
6.36%
6
2569
2419
6.20%
7
2426
2333
3.99%
8
2409
2333
3.26%
9
2540
2477
2.54%
10
2425
2376
2.06%
11
2561
2529
1.27%
12
2451
2421
1.24%
13
2552
2530
0.87%
14
2560
2543
0.67%
15
2483
2474
0.36%
16
2447
2440
0.29%
17
2507
2511
-0.16%
18
2420
2455
-1.43%
19
2406
2454
-1.96%
20
2586
2673
-3.25%

Of course, guys could have been using substances since 2019, rendering this comparison useless. But judging from Trevor Bauer’s comments in 2018 that apparently telegraphed the gains he’d make in his Cy Young 2020, we’ll assume the usage today is more widespread than in 2019.

So all the pitchers who have gains of 3% or less can be chalked up to natural improvements. That’s akin to a pitcher gaining about 2.5 to 3.0 mph on his fastball. It’s extremely unlikely, but possible. And really Clayton Kershaw is the highest in this No. 9-to-No. 20 range and his 2.5% gain translates into a 95 mph fastball becoming 97.3 or so. That does happen.

Bauer, though, has some explaining to do. Can you boost RPMs 17.1%, which is like going from 85 mph with the fastball to 99.5? That seems impossible, but again I caution that we have not measured RPMs for very long. Perhaps just the right pressure and the exact perfect moment of release can get that. But then why is no one else even close? Tyler Mahle is next at 13.9% and then you go all the way down to 6.9% for Walker Buehler.

The pitchers above 6% are the ones that I would be worrying about having to alter their, um, pre-delivery process.

This group also consists of Joe Musgrove (+6.2% RPMs), Tyler Glasnow (6.4%) and Dylan Cease (6.6%). According to TGFantasyBaseball’s auction value calculator, Bauer is SP No. 7, Walker Buehler No. 17, Tyler Mahle No. 34, Musgrove No. 16, Glasnow No. 10 and Cease No. 38. The average ranking is SP22. This is a ton of fantasy value right now that has another risk factor that’s virtually impossible to quantify.

If you get caught, it’s reportedly a 10-game suspension. But given that pitchers are being told they’re going to be checked constantly, it’s hard to fathom that anyone using it will keep using it. The only actionable thing is to look at the first few starts for these pitchers following this announcement and see if their four-seam rate noticeably declines. If it does, that would seem to indicate that they have lost their revolutions permanently. Or at least until the sheriff leaves town.

https://theathletic.com/2645556/2021/06/11/suspect-spin-rates-trevor-bauer-heads-group-of-pitchers-that-have-made-improbable-rpm-gains-in-2021/

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immamac

immamac 43696

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Baseball is fucking stupid because the people playing, owning and watching are all stupid.

It could be so much better if they stopped trying to "protect the game" it's like the #nochanges crowd during classic world of warcraft. Yeah Vanilla WoW would have been super cool, but that was before we had add-ons and an encyclopedic knowledge about the game with computers that can run it as easily as a spreadsheet.

Baseball is the same thing - rules haven't changed and technology isn't utilized more in the actual game despite how much better it would make the game for everyone including the fans. Fuck it, make baseball hard again. Why shouldn't a pitcher be able to use some substance? regulate it and make it part of the game. you get 10 pitches with up to 5 substances you want for "super pitches" the rest have to be natural bla bla and then it's much easier to monitor.

Instead of hand signals, just let the fucking pitcher wear a contact or have an earpiece where the catcher can just push a button or something and let him know what to throw. 

The list could go on and on, hell maybe even give batters "super swings" that will allow them to see the ball without the RPM's so the optical illusion doesn't happen etc. 

I guess my point is baseball could be so much cooler if "cheating" was actually just embraced as a way to move the game forward and make it something harder and more fun for everyone. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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29 minutes ago, immamac said:

I guess my point is baseball could be so much cooler if "cheating" was actually just embraced as a way to move the game forward and make it something harder and more fun for everyone. 

That's what so goddamn annoying about baseball fan puritans--they're almost all fake, hypocritical dramatists because this kind of cheating always exists in background form and is only brought to the forefront when it's convenient for MLB and/or sports media to raise a huge stink about the Integrity of the Game and why X is Ruining Baseball and Won't Someone Think of the Children?

Like everyone here I'm a diehard sports fan and baseball is probably my favorite of all. Baseball is entertainment business, a necessary and beloved distraction from the struggles of real life, but the overwrought preaching we have to suffer through from the self-proclaimed stewards of the game every time a new cheating "scandal" pops up is  real turn-off. In the bigger picture I never gave two shits about PEDs and I certainly don't give much of shit about stealing signs (don't want em stolen? change your signs!) or pitchers putting shit on the ball. This is just MLB and baseball media ginning up controversy for clicks and leverage in collective bargaining.

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Player

Player 4578

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Baseball is fucking stupid because the people playing, owning and watching are all stupid.
It could be so much better if they stopped trying to "protect the game" it's like the #nochanges crowd during classic world of warcraft. Yeah Vanilla WoW would have been super cool, but that was before we had add-ons and an encyclopedic knowledge about the game with computers that can run it as easily as a spreadsheet.
Baseball is the same thing - rules haven't changed and technology isn't utilized more in the actual game despite how much better it would make the game for everyone including the fans. Fuck it, make baseball hard again. Why shouldn't a pitcher be able to use some substance? regulate it and make it part of the game. you get 10 pitches with up to 5 substances you want for "super pitches" the rest have to be natural bla bla and then it's much easier to monitor.
Instead of hand signals, just let the fucking pitcher wear a contact or have an earpiece where the catcher can just push a button or something and let him know what to throw. 
The list could go on and on, hell maybe even give batters "super swings" that will allow them to see the ball without the RPM's so the optical illusion doesn't happen etc. 
I guess my point is baseball could be so much cooler if "cheating" was actually just embraced as a way to move the game forward and make it something harder and more fun for everyone. 


JFC - shut up aggy.
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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 12782

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I love that not only is it 10 days, but the player has to stay on the roster. 
 

This is one of the few times the enforcement mechanism has enough teeth to actually have it be something clubs will actually enforce because the roster management implications have a much greater implications for wins and losses than just skipping a pitchers start…

I think I would be a fan of this approach for all league driven suspensions in the MLB

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22789

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Periodic reminder that for a long time, the only players speaking out about the Astros were pitchers.  Hitters across the league were noticeably quiet, with the exception of people like Logan Morrison saying that a bunch of teams were doing similar stuff.  Then, along came that person posing as Beltran's niece with the buzzer accusations, and that's when the switch flipped.  Seriously, go back and look.  THAT was what pushed the hitters over the edge, the baseless accusations that have been confirmed by nobody.  But once you start opening your mouth, you can't just go back and be like "actually, we all were doing the other shit" so this whole performance continues.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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25 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I got hurt because I can't cheat anymore. 

Seriously, what a fucking jackass. I was stunned that he had the gall to say his injury was because of MLB enforcing a rule in place forever. 

Glasnow you lying motherfucker, MLB told all y'all to knock this shit off or else. They told you there would be compliance monitors collecting balls at every game, in the dugout, tunnel, batting cages etc and would be logging all activity and sending the balls to the league office. They told you that umps could take balls  out of play suspected of having a foreign substance on them and they would be subjected to lab testing by a third-party analyst. They told you they would be using statcast data to investigate suspected violators and they warned that, although umpires would be overseeing the rule on the field, the compliance measures would serve as an evidentiary basis for the league office to take disciplinary action against any player deemed to have broken the rule. 

Basically these fuckers are crying because MLB gave them some time to make the necessary adjustments before taking disciplinay action. When they didn't adjust but  doubled down with the use of sticky shit, MLB brought the hammer down and players like Glasnow and Bauer are spitting lies at fans the unfairness of the timing. 

 

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wood

wood 11637

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On 6/14/2021 at 9:30 AM, immamac said:

Fuck it, make baseball hard again.

Make baseball hard again? 

 

LOL. Baseball is as hard as it's ever been. Probably harder than ever, because of bigger, stronger, quicker, faster, more durable guys both on the mound and at the plate. But pitchers have gained so much on hitters that that's a big part of what's driven the change in batting approach you see now. The pitchers are throwing such ungodly breaking shit, throwing harder than ever across the league, and making their hard stuff break more than ever before. Managers also use pitchers massively differently. So it's harder than ever to string hits together, & hitters have moved to more of an all or nothing approach, swinging had as fuck in case they actually hit something, dragging the bat through the zone to increase the time the barrel is in it, etc. That's why you see HR numbers through the roof, but also see strikeouts through the roof at the same time. Some teams like the Astros for example, are moving back to a more balanced hitting approach, with great success, but I doubt we'll see it go all the way back to the old way in our lifetimes.

Make the grip substances legal or don't. I don't really care that much, but pitchers don't need any help.  They are already regulated though. If you allow them but regulate what they can and can't use, then it'll be harder than ever to actually police, and people will still be using illegal concoctions.

Edited by wood
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wood

wood 11637

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On 6/14/2021 at 10:30 AM, Gourmand said:

That's what so goddamn annoying about baseball fan puritans--they're almost all fake, hypocritical dramatists because this kind of cheating always exists in background form and is only brought to the forefront when it's convenient for MLB and/or sports media to raise a huge stink about the Integrity of the Game and why X is Ruining Baseball and Won't Someone Think of the Children?

Like everyone here I'm a diehard sports fan and baseball is probably my favorite of all. Baseball is entertainment business, a necessary and beloved distraction from the struggles of real life, but the overwrought preaching we have to suffer through from the self-proclaimed stewards of the game every time a new cheating "scandal" pops up is  real turn-off. In the bigger picture I never gave two shits about PEDs and I certainly don't give much of shit about stealing signs (don't want em stolen? change your signs!) or pitchers putting shit on the ball. This is just MLB and baseball media ginning up controversy for clicks and leverage in collective bargaining.

Yep. There is extensive cheating going on league-wide. In every team. Period. If you don't believe that, then you're a fucking clueless idiot. No need to change the rules, and if someone gets caught, they need to do the time (unlike some teams that got caught & got a slap on the wrist).

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Helobious

Helobious 9516

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2 hours ago, Gourmand said:

He's pretty credible and connected in MLB circles.

You’d never heard of him before today and he’s not we’ll connected at all. He’s also an attention whore. 
 

Just because someone tells you what you want to hear doesn’t make it true.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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I am not a ML pitcher and I don't know what the current ball feels like in pitcher's hand, so I can only take their word for it that there's an inherent slickness to it that makes it difficult to grip without some help. If they're mad because MLB didn't fix the ball, fine, but they had two fucking years to adjust to pitching without that help and didn't. 

MLB needs to fix the ball, but the players knowingly breaking this rule lose all credibility when they lie to fans and refuse to admit they knew the piper was gonna get paid soon and they didn't heed the warning. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

You’d never heard of him before today and he’s not we’ll connected at all. He’s also an attention whore. 
 

Just because someone tells you what you want to hear doesn’t make it true.

Ok Yankee fan. 

He's pretty well known, sorry to burst your bubble. And yeah your fucking Yankees are shitty hypocrites who suck at baseball. I look forward to drinking your tears again. 

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Helobious

Helobious 9516

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Just now, Gourmand said:

Ok Yankee fan. 

He's pretty well known, sorry to burst your bubble. And yeah your fucking Yankees are shitty hypocrites who suck at baseball. I look forward to drinking your tears again. 

Care to explain why Judge is hitting better on the road than at home this year? 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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Just now, Helobious said:

Care to explain why Judge is hitting better on the road than at home this year? 

No I really don't and after what your shitstain fanbase did to Jose Altuve, the slander without any evidence based on a fake twitter account from a known liar, fuck any Yankee asswipe trying to make evidentiary demands.

The New York Yankees cheated, you're just too deluded by fake pinstripe glory to admit what anyone with a drip of common sense knows. 

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Care to explain why Judge is hitting better on the road than at home this year? 

Like Altuve did in 2017?

 

This thread ain't really about Yankee hate, other than MLB's sick desire to protect them.  The hate and discontent should be directed at Manfred and Company; but fuck the Yankees too.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33669

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Quick search shows the 2017 Yankees batted .265 at home in 2702 ABs and .258 away in 2892 ABs. That’s the definition of negligible. 

 

Just now, Gourmand said:

NOW  DO THE ASTROS 

Was just coming here to ask him what his quick search showed about the 2017 Astros.

image.png.f87dded1618ba8fe96fac674f56851d5.png

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Helobious

Helobious 9516

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6 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

No I really don't and after what your shitstain fanbase did to Jose Altuve, the slander without any evidence based on a fake twitter account from a known liar, fuck any Yankee asswipe trying to make evidentiary demands.

The New York Yankees cheated, you're just too deluded by fake pinstripe glory to admit what anyone with a drip of common sense knows. 

 

What did our “fanbase” do to Altuve exactly? You know the entire MLB hates you whiny bitches right? Did you see the vid of that badass Red Sox kid shit talking Bregman and calling him a cheater when he came over for a pic a few weeks ago? No idea why you single out the Yankees for something everyone does. 

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22789

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20 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Quick search shows the 2017 Yankees batted .265 at home in 2702 ABs and .258 away in 2892 ABs. That’s the definition of negligible. 

Quick search shows the 2017 Astros batted .279 at home in 2701 ABs and .284 away in 2910 ABs. That’s the definition of negligible. 

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2 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Still waiting for Helobious to explain away Beltran's comment to his Astros teammates about how their sign-stealing game was "behind the times" after playing a multi-year stint in New York (followed by a half season w/ Arilington).

 

Should have had someone on the gaspump, waving a beater like Beltre allegedly did.

As insane as this sounds, I've heard this from multiple players, Adrian Beltre had a buddy with binoculars in dead center who would wave a beater (undershirt) if he was getting something off speed in 2017. Beltre 2017 home - .362/.440/.586 Beltre 2017 away - .271/.333/.489
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Helobious

Helobious 9516

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Who knows if he actually said that. 
 

I get that most of you never matriculated past HCC or San Jac, but your lack of critical thinking skills astounds me still. Did all MLB teams engage in some electronic sign stealing? Sure, even the Yankees. The point has always been that the Astros did it for a longer time period and to a greater extent than anyone else.

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wood

wood 11637

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5 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Still waiting for Helobious to explain away Beltran's comment to his Astros teammates about how their sign-stealing game was "behind the times" after playing a multi-year stint in New York (followed by a half season w/ Arilington).

 

Don't hold your breath.

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wood

wood 11637

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Posted
Just now, Helobious said:

Who knows if he actually said that. 
 

I get that most of you never matriculated past HCC or San Jac, but your lack of critical thinking skills astounds me still.

Says the biggest fucking tone-deaf idiot on the Surl (which is impressive in itself).

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3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Who knows if he actually said that. 
 

I get that most of you never matriculated past HCC or San Jac, but your lack of critical thinking skills astounds me still. Did all MLB teams engage in some electronic sign stealing? Sure, even the Yankees. The point has always been that the Astros did it for a longer time period and to a greater extent than anyone else.

The point is that you lie to yourself to ease your feelings of inadequacy.  That isn't Jose fucking Altuve's fault.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 33669

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9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Who knows if he actually said that. 
 

I get that most of you never matriculated past HCC or San Jac, but your lack of critical thinking skills astounds me still. Did all MLB teams engage in some electronic sign stealing? Sure, even the Yankees. The point has always been that the Astros did it for a longer time period and to a greater extent than anyone else.

The point is that the Astros kicked your team's ass. That's always been the point. That's why the biggest crowd reactions are in Boston, New York, and Los Angeles.

The Astros cheated like everyone else. They didn't cheat worse or more, they cheated dumber.

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9859

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55 minutes ago, Helobious said:

You’d never heard of him before today and he’s not we’ll connected at all. He’s also an attention whore. 
 

Just because someone tells you what you want to hear doesn’t make it true.

What about Manager Joe?  Is he not credible in your eyes when he described this exact scheme?

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7776

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Who knows if he actually said that. 

So now you're casting doubt on that story based on nothing but "can we really KNOW?" Dumbfuck, this was reported by the same Athletic reporters who broke the initial story and had access to dozens of players and team personnel. There has never been any report I've read anywhere of any person contradicting that reporting.

5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I get that most of you never matriculated past HCC or San Jac, but your lack of critical thinking skills astounds me still. Did all MLB teams engage in some electronic sign stealing? Sure, even the Yankees. The point has always been that the Astros did it for a longer time period and to a greater extent than anyone else.

That's hilariously rich coming from a dumbass Yankee fan who has never acknowledged the breadth of cheating in baseball history. You cling to a false premise about the Astros cheating because to admit otherwise would burst the cozy reality bubble you soft-ass Yankee live in, all because you can't put your big boy pants on and admit you've been whipped multiple times by the Houston Astros.

"THE ONLY REASON WE LOST WAS BECAUSE ThE AsTRS ChEATED!!!" 

Blame your fucking closer, that's what we'd do.

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