Meanwhile in China

[bolverk 29655]

7 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

According to what I read, the payload was the size of three buses.  Based on that, it could carry a shit load of equipment that couldn't be crammed in a satellite or spy plane.  Hopefully, we can recover the payload and find out what it was.

A lot of the size was from the solar panels providing power to it.

From post #315:

The Chinese government said on Friday the Chinese balloon discovered over the United States was mainly for weather research. However, American officials said they have assessed it to be a collection device, though not one that could gather the kind of sensitive information that advanced Chinese reconnaissance satellites already collect.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64508086

 

https://nypost.com/2023/02/04/chinese-spy-balloon-reportedly-shot-down-over-atlantic-ocean/

[Nicole44 22058]

13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Good grief. No one has been defending the Chinese government in any of this. You just really have a tendency of going off the rails sometimes. Lay off the shrill cable news talking heads and calm the fuck down.

THE PENTAGON, you know, our own military, also said it wasn't a threat:

 

“Right now, we assess that there is no threat, no physical threat or military threat, to people on the ground,” Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, said Friday. Later Friday, General Ryder said the military had also assessed another balloon reportedly crossing Latin America as another Chinese surveillance device.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/world/asia/china-spy-balloon.html

If that's paywalled you can also read  it here: https://txtify.it/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/world/asia/china-spy-balloon.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FYI: I don’t watch very much cable news. I just read articles from different sources. I watch a little BBC news now and then and my local news but the American 24 hour ones I shy away from. I just want who what where why how and when. I don’t care for political opinions as both parties here are completely off the rails and neither is worth defending. It is not political for me. China is not our friend. Yes The Pentagon did say there was no threat on Friday. And shot it down less than 24 hours later. I could care less what China’s explanation is. Nothing they do or say should be taken at face value as they’ve not earned the benefit of the doubt. The thing that bothers me the most on surly is if you attack China you are somehow a Trump supporter or right wing nut job. (I am not btw and never have been and I feel no government or policy is above criticism) I’m an independent person and thinker. My opinions are my own and they may suck but they are not some Reddit bullshit or Fox or MSNBC crap. 
 

I do think it’s odd that we allowed the balloon’s flight to disrupt commercial airspace and flights before shooting it down. But I get we wanted it over water and ability to collect it’s busted ass remains. But I do not trust anything China or Russia does at this point. I’m letting off steam. We’ve been through the shit the last two plus years and a lot of that is because of China. I don’t even post in the Ukraine thread because I got emotional and kept getting criticized over and over for having thoughts and feelings. After two years of watching surly members come and go and tearing our own people apart about masks and vaccines and social distancing I choose to throw my hate and anger at the country I believe to be the most responsible for wrecking havoc. In short even if there is an “innocent” explanation for said balloon who gives a fuck? Shoot it down on principle and mail the remains back to them in a pine box. Because fuck them. 

[mchookem 16322]

[Balcones 317]

2 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

China is a highly technologically advanced world superpower. They have HEO and LEO surveillance satellites. It has been public knowledge for years that they have high altitude stealth surveillance drones. I promise you they don't need to send a fucking slow-moving balloon that's completely and obviously visible to any of our tracking systems to gather intel. It blows my mind that people just cannot stop and think even slightly critically about this for a single minute.

 

Critical thinking, huh? Maybe the Chinese were testing capabilities? You know, if that sophisticated stuff stops working. 

Why does the US military still issue a map compass and train with them? Certainly we have much more sophisticated technology than that?  

https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/lost/amp/

If this weren’t enough, Russia, China, and other adversaries manufacture and proliferate GPS jammers to deny the U.S. military access to its GPS. Jammers transmit signals at higher power than GPS satellites, which prevents GPS signals from reaching a receiver. Russia and China view electromagnetic warfare as an integral aspect of modern conflict and have dedicated units that are manned, trained, and equipped just to attack GPS signals. Chinese electromagnetic warfare units routinely jam GPS signals, in force-on-force exercises. Jammers aren’t the only threat.

Russia leads in the development and fielding of GPS ‘spoofers.’ Spoofing is more complex than jamming: the spoofer broadcasts a signal that tricks a GPS receiver into thinking the spoofer is a valid emitter, thereby hijacking the receiver. Russia spoofed the GPS signal 10,000 times in just two years. It’s time to respond.

 

[Nicole44 22058]

9 minutes ago, mchookem said:

 

[Nicole44 22058]

• China has expressed its “strong dissatisfaction and protest” against the decision, accusing the US of “overreacting” and “seriously violating international practice.”
• President Joe Biden described the mission as a success. He said he ordered the military to shoot it down “as soon as possible” when he was briefed Wednesday.
• US officials say the balloon was being used for surveillance; China insists it was a civilian research vessel.
• It was first spotted over the continental US several days ago, according to the Pentagon, but officials deemed it too dangerous to shoot down over land.
   
•  

[bolverk 29655]

6 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

FYI: I don’t watch very much cable news. I just read articles from different sources. I watch a little BBC news now and then and my local news but the American 24 hour ones I shy away from. I just want who what where why how and when. I don’t care for political opinions as both parties here are completely off the rails and neither is worth defending. It is not political for me. China is not our friend. Yes The Pentagon did say there was no threat on Friday. And shot it down less than 24 hours later. I could care less what China’s explanation is. Nothing they do or say should be taken at face value as they’ve not earned the benefit of the doubt. The thing that bothers me the most on surly is if you attack China you are somehow a Trump supporter or right wing nut job. (I am not btw and never have been and I feel no government or policy is above criticism) I’m an independent person and thinker. My opinions are my own and they may suck but they are not some Reddit bullshit or Fox or MSNBC crap. 
 

I do think it’s odd that we allowed the balloon’s flight to disrupt commercial airspace and flights before shooting it down. But I get we wanted it over water and ability to collect it’s busted ass remains. But I do not trust anything China or Russia does at this point. I’m letting off steam. We’ve been through the shit the last two plus years and a lot of that is because of China. I don’t even post in the Ukraine thread because I got emotional and kept getting criticized over and over for having thoughts and feelings. After two years of watching surly members come and go and tearing our own people apart about masks and vaccines and social distancing I choose to throw my hate and anger at the country I believe to be the most responsible for wrecking havoc. In short even if there is an “innocent” explanation for said balloon who gives a fuck? Shoot it down on principle and mail the remains back to them in a pine box. Because fuck them. 

Look, I don't trust the Chinese government either, but the sheer panic and hysteria this thing caused was ridiculous. The Pentagon saw this thing coming. The administration was justifiably upset it entered our airspace, cancelled a planned trip by the Secretary of State, and now may recall our ambassador over it. The president ordered it to be shot down when safe to do so last Wednesday. The Pentagon assessed the balloon wasn't a threat but went ahead and jammed its comms (I think I read that last part somewhere). Then, the military shot it down when they were ready to do so. Now, they're gathering up valuable intel. End of story.

[Poolflood 845]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Look, I don't trust the Chinese government either, but the sheer panic and hysteria this thing caused was ridiculous. The Pentagon saw this thing coming. The administration was justifiably upset it entered our airspace, cancelled a planned trip by the Secretary of State, and now may recall our ambassador over it. The president ordered it to be shot down when safe to do so last Wednesday. The Pentagon assessed the balloon wasn't a threat but went ahead and jammed its comms (I think I read that last part somewhere). Then, the military shot it down when they were ready to do so. Now, they're gathering up valuable intel. End of story.

Who was panicked or hysterical? 

24 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

In short even if there is an “innocent” explanation for said balloon who gives a fuck? Shoot it down on principle and mail the remains back to them in a pine box. Because fuck them. 

I'll pos rep this shit right here.  

[bolverk 29655]

2 minutes ago, Poolflood said:

Who was panicked or hysterical? 

I'll pos rep this shit right here.  

Certainly the guy upthread who was scared they were going to spread diseases with it or kill off all our crops.

[Nicole44 22058]

They had three balloons crossed over the US (2019) during the Trump administration and yet another earlier in the Biden administration. But the government didn’t shoot those down. So all the people saying it wouldn’t have happened on Trump’s watch are wrong as well. Or the people clamoring for an innocent explanation of the balloon at this point after at least four others have flown over the continental US are wrong as well. Granted this balloon got a lot of attention because of the length of time it was here and well…we all saw it. Thought this AP article was interesting at any rate:

Even if the balloon was not armed, it posed a risk to the U.S., said retired Army Gen. John Ferrari, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The flight itself, he said, could be used to test America’s ability to detect incoming threats and to find holes in the country’s air defense warning system. It may also have allowed the Chinese to sense electromagnetic emissions that higher-altitude satellites cannot detect, such as low-power radio frequencies that could help them understand how different U.S. weapons systems communicate.
 

https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-antony-blinken-china-b1b03193b7abeb7bbeca169bbc7c2c53

Edited February 5, 2023 by Nicole44

[Poolflood 845]

8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Certainly the guy upthread who was scared they were going to spread diseases with it or kill off all our crops.

Gotcha.  One guy... up thread.

[Bevo 13567]

16 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

FYI: I don’t watch very much cable news. I just read articles from different sources. I watch a little BBC news now and then and my local news but the American 24 hour ones I shy away from. I just want who what where why how and when. I don’t care for political opinions as both parties here are completely off the rails and neither is worth defending. It is not political for me. China is not our friend. Yes The Pentagon did say there was no threat on Friday. And shot it down less than 24 hours later. I could care less what China’s explanation is. Nothing they do or say should be taken at face value as they’ve not earned the benefit of the doubt. The thing that bothers me the most on surly is if you attack China you are somehow a Trump supporter or right wing nut job. (I am not btw and never have been and I feel no government or policy is above criticism) I’m an independent person and thinker. My opinions are my own and they may suck but they are not some Reddit bullshit or Fox or MSNBC crap. 
 

I do think it’s odd that we allowed the balloon’s flight to disrupt commercial airspace and flights before shooting it down. But I get we wanted it over water and ability to collect it’s busted ass remains. But I do not trust anything China or Russia does at this point. I’m letting off steam. We’ve been through the shit the last two plus years and a lot of that is because of China. I don’t even post in the Ukraine thread because I got emotional and kept getting criticized over and over for having thoughts and feelings. After two years of watching surly members come and go and tearing our own people apart about masks and vaccines and social distancing I choose to throw my hate and anger at the country I believe to be the most responsible for wrecking havoc. In short even if there is an “innocent” explanation for said balloon who gives a fuck? Shoot it down on principle and mail the remains back to them in a pine box. Because fuck them. 

https://time.com/6252667/xi-jinping-blinken-us-china-ties/

When Antony Blinken travels to Beijing on Sunday, he’ll be the first U.S. Secretary of State to do so since 2018 and the first cabinet member to visit China in the Biden administration. Still, given an increasingly fractious bilateral relationship, expectations for the two-day trip were low—that was until reports emerged Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping would break with recent protocol and meet personally with Blinken.

 

This meeting was important to the Whitehouse and a spy balloon wasn't going to fuck it up. Unfortunately for the Whitehouse, citizens in Montana reported it and it became national news. The Whitehouse tried to get on top of the story but it took off with the spin that the government had been following it and determined that it wasn't a threat and was too dangerous to moose in Montana to shoot it down. The story continued to pick up steam and there wasn't much doubt that public opinion was against it so the US finally shot it down over the water after it had traveled over much of the US. And Blinken was forced to cancel his trip.

 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fbillingsgazette.com%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Fbillings-gazette-photos-play-role-in-white-house-response-to-china-s-spy-balloon%2Farticle_fa986e5c-4ac1-550b-8cde-c0278eb65c62.html

The president of the United States knew about the presence of the Chinese spy balloon for several days before it was spotted drifting over Montana.

But, the White House wanted to keep it secret fearing news of the surveillance balloon would sabotage Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned diplomatic trip to China, the first such visit in five years, Bloomberg News has reported. Blinken was to go to China on Friday.

That changed Wednesday, when Billings Gazette photographer Larry Mayer, responding to vague reports that the airspace around Billings had been closed, photographed an odd glowing orb high in the sky.

Using a large telephoto lens, Mayer discovered it was high-altitude balloon powered by a large solar array. The balloon also was photographed by Billings videographer and former Gazette online editor Chase Doak.

[Hook1997 5351]

Holy shit they haven’t even recovered the thing yet?  Seems like would definitely have the tech and resources to track and recover it as soon as it hit the water.  

[Hate 20106]

3 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Collecting all the bad/dumb/retarded posts. Let me know if I missed any.

I collected a few more for you but put them all in one place for your convenience.

 

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/profile/1244-brian-fantana/

[Brian Fantana 6680]

2 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

US officials say the balloon was being used for surveillance; China insists it was a civilian research vessel.
 

Yes let’s trust what China says. Because their civilians can’t do dick without their government knowing about it and approving it. So let’s try again. The pentagon said it didn’t simply blow off course and has sophisticated maneuvering capabilities and wasn’t just following the jet stream.

Still baffling that people are saying, “It’s not a threat. Their government said it wasn’t. There is an innocent explanation for the balloon! China isn’t a threat at all to the world. I want their government here! I think It’s great.  I’m going to keep defending them because I am absolutely delusional! China is so smart and sophisticated. They didn’t spread Covid on purpose!” (Narrator: move there and fuck off then.) 

I want to meet the people you made up in your head that are saying these things. Like it's fucking crazy that you are actually typing that in earnest. Normally you're a decent poster but you're borderline frothing at the mouth to express some pretty psychotic xenophobia here and project some seriously weird opinions that no one is expressing. Throwing the COVID thing in there really shows your hand here and maybe you should think about posting shit that would make Marjorie Taylor Green grin. Holy shit.

No one is saying China is good, I'm just saying the notion that they're sending a balloon here for surveillance/espionage purposes is outright laughable. There is no need for them to do that, for one thing, and it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do as there's no way to hide it whatsoever or any way to actually recover the balloon. It can't exactly turn around and go back to China. What the fuck.

[Nicole44 22058]

1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

I want to meet the people you made up in your head that are saying these things. Like it's fucking crazy that you are actually typing that in earnest. Normally you're a decent poster but you're borderline frothing at the mouth to express some pretty psychotic xenophobia here and project some seriously weird opinions that no one is expressing. Throwing the COVID thing in there really shows your hand here and maybe you should think about posting shit that would make Marjorie Taylor Green grin. Holy shit.

No one is saying China is good, I'm just saying the notion that they're sending a balloon here for surveillance/espionage purposes is outright laughable. There is no need for them to do that, for one thing, and it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do as there's no way to hide it whatsoever or any way to actually recover the balloon. It can't exactly turn around and go back to China. What the fuck.

A) your opinion about the balloon is as dumb as you think my posts on this matter are. Maybe read the APNews article I posted? 

B) just because I disagree with you doesn’t mean I like Trump, voted for him, watch Fox News etc. I mean some of the posts like this last one really show your hand as well. If someone disagrees with you they must be stereotyped and put in some type of box. And discredited and labeled a right wing crazy Republican. Which I am not!  Oh and also xenophobic and racist. Which I am not!  I feel like the people who have to do that to me every time i disagree with them aren’t Capable of critical thought and just parrot the opinions of their party and party leaders and their 24 hour news channel of choice. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

[Brian Fantana 6680]

1 minute ago, Nicole44 said:

A) your opinion about the balloon is as dumb as you think my posts on this matter are. Maybe read the APNews article I posted? 

B) just because I disagree with you doesn’t mean I like Trump, voted for him, watch Fox News etc. I mean some of the posts like this last one really show your hand as well. If someone disagrees with you they must be stereotyped and put in some type of box. And discredited and labeled a right wing crazy Republican. Which I am not!  Oh and also xenophobic and racist. Which I am not!  I feel like the people who have to do that to me every time i disagree with them aren’t Capable of critical thought and just parrot the opinions of their party and party leaders and their 24 hour news channel of choice. 

I know you're not! That's why I'm thrown by you saying absolutely crazy shit like below. I mean look at this again:

Quote

Still baffling that people are saying, “It’s not a threat. Their government said it wasn’t. There is an innocent explanation for the balloon! China isn’t a threat at all to the world. I want their government here! I think It’s great.  I’m going to keep defending them because I am absolutely delusional! China is so smart and sophisticated. They didn’t spread Covid on purpose!” (Narrator: move there and fuck off then.) 

So because I don't believe this was actually a surveillance balloon, as evidenced by A) basic common sense deductions based on public information on China's technological capabilities, B) basic common sense deductions on how high altitude balloons work, and C) the fact that this isn't the first time and the Pentagon absolutely did not give a fuck until the public started freaking out about it, I should move to China because I love them so much? Like just think about what you're saying.

And yes, I did read the article and several others as well. I'm well aware of what the Pentagon, who has famously never made a false statement, is saying. Do I trust them over China? Sure, but considering that no action was taken until the public outcry began, I'm kind of reading between the lines here. They also said it had advanced maneuvering capabilities, but it also has not been recovered yet so they don't actually know that, it's just speculation, unless the Chinese furnished them with that information. There are ant number of possible explanations for a balloon changing course. Generally speaking, even the most sophisticated balloons can only really move up or down and are at the mercy of air currents, so where you launch them from is the largest determining factor of where they end up. It's important to remember that at the altitudes this kind of balloon would operate at (80,000-120,000 feet), maneuvering thrusters would be extremely inefficient and possibly just flatly ineffective. Atmospheric pressure starts to drop precipitously once you reach an altitude of 20,000 feet, and at 100,000 feet it's about 1% of what it is at sea level. Remember, they are saying the balloon was shot down at 60,000 feet, meaning that it likely was lowered to that altitude by China at the Pentagon's request so they could easily shoot it down with just a fighter jet, despite China's public protest at that action.

I don't think I made this very clear, but I'm not even saying the balloon doesn't have surveillance capability, even if it is actually a civilian craft like they say. Even a balloon designed for pure scientific research purposes would have some varying degree of surveillance capability, and of course the Chinese government/military probably has some degree of control over that. My assertion is that it is effectively irrelevant and not worthy of concern, because a god damn balloon 15-20 miles up in the air is not going to provide them with anything they can't already deduct with the use of LEO surveillance satellites or the drones we know for a fact they have that I've already mentioned in this thread. It's certainly not worth working yourself up as much as you have, or being afraid they're going to disburse bio-weaponry on us from these balloons like others have already asserted in this thread.

Spoiler

Also, for the actual nuts in the thread. China doesn't need to attack us directly. By stupidly allowing most of our infrastructure to be owned by private corporations, we've made it extremely easy for them to just buy it all up. Instead of being militarily superior, they just own us instead. Yay, capitalism.

 

[Nicole44 22058]

10 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I know you're not! That's why I'm thrown by you saying absolutely crazy shit like below. I mean look at this again:

So because I don't believe this was actually a surveillance balloon, as evidenced by A) basic common sense deductions based on public information on China's technological capabilities, B) basic common sense deductions on how high altitude balloons work, and C) the fact that this isn't the first time and the Pentagon absolutely did not give a fuck until the public started freaking out about it, I should move to China because I love them so much? Like just think about what you're saying.

And yes, I did read the article and several others as well. I'm well aware of what the Pentagon, who has famously never made a false statement, is saying. Do I trust them over China? Sure, but considering that no action was taken until the public outcry began, I'm kind of reading between the lines here. They also said it had advanced maneuvering capabilities, but it also has not been recovered yet so they don't actually know that, it's just speculation, unless the Chinese furnished them with that information. There are ant number of possible explanations for a balloon changing course. Generally speaking, even the most sophisticated balloons can only really move up or down and are at the mercy of air currents, so where you launch them from is the largest determining factor of where they end up. It's important to remember that at the altitudes this kind of balloon would operate at (80,000-120,000 feet), maneuvering thrusters would be extremely inefficient and possibly just flatly ineffective. Atmospheric pressure starts to drop precipitously once you reach an altitude of 20,000 feet, and at 100,000 feet it's about 1% of what it is at sea level. Remember, they are saying the balloon was shot down at 60,000 feet, meaning that it likely was lowered to that altitude by China at the Pentagon's request so they could easily shoot it down with just a fighter jet, despite China's public protest at that action.

I don't think I made this very clear, but I'm not even saying the balloon doesn't have surveillance capability, even if it is actually a civilian craft like they say. Even a balloon designed for pure scientific research purposes would have some varying degree of surveillance capability, and of course the Chinese government/military probably has some degree of control over that. My assertion is that it is effectively irrelevant and not worthy of concern, because a god damn balloon 15-20 miles up in the air is not going to provide them with anything they can't already deduct with the use of LEO surveillance satellites or the drones we know for a fact they have that I've already mentioned in this thread. It's certainly not worth working yourself up as much as you have, or being afraid they're going to disburse bio-weaponry on us from these balloons like others have already asserted in this thread.

  Hide contents

Also, for the actual nuts in the thread. China doesn't need to attack us directly. By stupidly allowing most of our infrastructure to be owned by private corporations, we've made it extremely easy for them to just buy it all up. Instead of being militarily superior, they just own us instead. Yay, capitalism.

 

Spoiler

 To me Covid was like a linchpin. China employed it bc they’d love nothing more than for the US to be destroyed economically and our resources redistributed. We have made several mistakes as a country but allowing a communist POS government to hold our debt and own us financially was catastrophically irresponsible and stupid. Especially when we absolutely cannot trust them or their intentions. Ever. 

 

[Parliament 14243]

4 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

It doesn’t matter why the balloon was here and it didn’t just blow off course. China is not our friend. Their government may have all the technology but they are still assholes. Not worth defending any of their actions. There was nothing wrong with shooting down their bitch ass balloon.  
 

During the height of Covid, it simply baffled me to hear so many American people and the media defending China and the origins of Covid and how China did such a great job of closing things off etc…no they didn’t. Fuck them. Period. China is no better than Russia. They are just smarter and have better weapons but they aren’t our friend. Fuck them for unleashing hell on the world with Covid. We should slowly start pulling our resources out of China and moving them to Mexico and Central and South America. And slowly let them bleed out and suffocate. 

Add the, "ChInA pLaYs ThE lOnG gAmE!!!" BS to that narrative.  It only looks like they have a plan because we never see them debating anything. 

[Kennythetiger 9376]

10 hours ago, justhookit said:

I don’t know why the news articles that mention a second balloon over “Latin America” aren’t being more specific. The damn thing was over my marina Marina Pez Vela in Costa Rica on Thursday morning. I got this picture of it. If they needed to find it they could have just asked me. Clearly the Chinese are trying to steal my fishing secrets. The next 2 days there was a ton of U.S. military helicopter traffic over the Pacific which you don’t see often at all other than an occasional large drug interdiction.

It’s @troph, posing as a Chinawoman. Which is the preferred nomenclature. She could have just asked you if there was an extra seat on your boat. 

[Nicole44 22058]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Add the, "ChInA pLaYs ThE lOnG gAmE!!!" BS to that narrative.  It only looks like they have a plan because we never see them debating anything. 

Well they just imprison or disappear/kill anyone who has an opposing idea or opinion over there so you’re right about that. Russia is playing checkers though. China is playing chess on some level but there are repercussions for how they’ve run their country and stuff is coming home to roost for them. Quite honestly both regimes scare me equally. If the balloon were  from a friendly country, they’d have let our government know about said balloon and the purposes of it and been totally transparent. This is why especially after learning there have been at least 5 balloons over the last few years is very problematic at best. Was our hand forced because people saw it, took to social media and called authorities about it? Sure. But any other ally of ours should do the same thing we did. Monitor it, gather intel, shoot it down and collect it to study it further. I’ve been critical of our current government for other reasons but I’m not critical of them for shooting it down. Or their approach here. It’s not like they negotiate in good faith or anything or that any future meeting we have with them will be undercut by their next balloon etc…

[Brian Fantana 6680]

25 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

  Hide contents

 To me Covid was like a linchpin. China employed it bc they’d love nothing more than for the US to be destroyed economically and our resources redistributed. We have made several mistakes as a country but allowing a communist POS government to hold our debt and own us financially was catastrophically irresponsible and stupid. Especially when we absolutely cannot trust them or their intentions. Ever. 

 

I don't agree, I think they'd rather just own us. Destroying us isn't in their best interest. Our economies are deeply intertwined.

[Nicole44 22058]

3 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I don't agree, I think they'd rather just own us. Destroying us isn't in their best interest. Our economies are deeply intertwined.

But they’d have to conquer us to own us. We are just in some waiting game with them because we have nukes and weapons and they have the same. We should have incurred the costs of labor and products and kept most of our stuff on this side of the world. Stuff would have been more expensive and our rise slower but damn. I’d pay more for every item just to get out from under their thumb. I don’t trust them at all. Scary times we live in. Covid changed things. Everyone got hit hard and some harder than most. We will never know the true extent of the damage in places like China. We do know their one child deal is causing serious issues. I’d like not to be beholden to them at all. 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

Our Air Force (and Navy) are constantly challenging Russian warplanes off Alaska and to a lesser extent in Europe.  We are actively providing intelligence and lots of weapons to Ukraine that causes Russian state media to publicly declare itself at war with us, and Russian officials makes veiled threats about nukes being used against us.

We were a part of a treaty for nearly 20 years (early 2000's to 2020) that allowed the Russians to fly over our territory anywhere:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_Open_Skies

Quote

The Treaty on Open Skies establishes a program of unarmed aerial surveillance flights over the entire territory of its participants. The treaty is designed to enhance mutual understanding and confidence by giving all participants, regardless of size, a direct role in gathering information about military forces and activities of concern to them.

If a fucking balloon presented a threat, it would have been shot down, probably before it actually crossed land. 

[Parliament 14243]

When European traders got Chinamen hooked on opium (sorry for that), they fought a series of wars.  China lost every one of them.  By the last 1800's, the Europeans had gunboats going back and forth on all of China's canals.  But they never "conquered" them.  Too much work.  Better to loot their economy.

"Loot economically."  I see some similarities in how China treats us.  Buy what they want, steal what they can.  Subsidize certain industries and drive us out of them.  Undermine our relationships with their neighbors.

I see a China that has a lot of shame.  Shame over what the west did to them in the 1800's.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Parliament

[wild_turkey 3159]

My assertion is that it is effectively irrelevant and not worthy of concern, because a god damn balloon 15-20 miles up in the air is not going to provide them with anything they can't already deduct with the use of LEO surveillance satellites or the drones we know for a fact they have that I've already mentioned in this thread.

You seem quite certain the balloon provides nothing of value to China. Then why was it used? Why send a balloon into U.S. airspace and risk worsening diplomatic relations if they didn’t at least hope to learn something from it?

Do you really believe this was just an accident and that China had no bad intentions in all of this?

[Lhorn 4911]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If a fucking balloon presented a threat, it would have been shot down, probably before it actually crossed land. 

It was shot down.  Correct me if I’m wrong but it sounds like you are saying we didn’t shoot it down because we didn’t feel it was a threat.  In the time we spent watching it cross the continental US we learned nothing about its purpose except Chinese claims that it was benign.  So why’d we shoot it down if we didn’t feel like it was a threat?

[PTINS 3464]

I’m curious.

Today I went on google earth looking got past US places I’ve visited, and a lot of stuff is blurred with no historical imagery available.

New Google policy, some body lost the files, or coincident to Chinese ballon overflight?

[Dbeasy 15042]

1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

I know you're not! That's why I'm thrown by you saying absolutely crazy shit like below. I mean look at this again:

So because I don't believe this was actually a surveillance balloon, as evidenced by A) basic common sense deductions based on public information on China's technological capabilities, B) basic common sense deductions on how high altitude balloons work, and C) the fact that this isn't the first time and the Pentagon absolutely did not give a fuck until the public started freaking out about it, I should move to China because I love them so much? Like just think about what you're saying.

And yes, I did read the article and several others as well. I'm well aware of what the Pentagon, who has famously never made a false statement, is saying. Do I trust them over China? Sure, but considering that no action was taken until the public outcry began, I'm kind of reading between the lines here. They also said it had advanced maneuvering capabilities, but it also has not been recovered yet so they don't actually know that, it's just speculation, unless the Chinese furnished them with that information. There are ant number of possible explanations for a balloon changing course. Generally speaking, even the most sophisticated balloons can only really move up or down and are at the mercy of air currents, so where you launch them from is the largest determining factor of where they end up. It's important to remember that at the altitudes this kind of balloon would operate at (80,000-120,000 feet), maneuvering thrusters would be extremely inefficient and possibly just flatly ineffective. Atmospheric pressure starts to drop precipitously once you reach an altitude of 20,000 feet, and at 100,000 feet it's about 1% of what it is at sea level. Remember, they are saying the balloon was shot down at 60,000 feet, meaning that it likely was lowered to that altitude by China at the Pentagon's request so they could easily shoot it down with just a fighter jet, despite China's public protest at that action.

I don't think I made this very clear, but I'm not even saying the balloon doesn't have surveillance capability, even if it is actually a civilian craft like they say. Even a balloon designed for pure scientific research purposes would have some varying degree of surveillance capability, and of course the Chinese government/military probably has some degree of control over that. My assertion is that it is effectively irrelevant and not worthy of concern, because a god damn balloon 15-20 miles up in the air is not going to provide them with anything they can't already deduct with the use of LEO surveillance satellites or the drones we know for a fact they have that I've already mentioned in this thread. It's certainly not worth working yourself up as much as you have, or being afraid they're going to disburse bio-weaponry on us from these balloons like others have already asserted in this thread.

  Reveal hidden contents

Also, for the actual nuts in the thread. China doesn't need to attack us directly. By stupidly allowing most of our infrastructure to be owned by private corporations, we've made it extremely easy for them to just buy it all up. Instead of being militarily superior, they just own us instead. Yay, capitalism.

 

What in the hell are you talking about? You have no idea whether this balloon is doing surveillance and you sound like an idiot calling other people idiots for not trusting China. Not trusting China is a far more common sense viewpoint than you right now. You sound like a loon. 

[Lhorn 4911]

1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

I know you're not! That's why I'm thrown by you saying absolutely crazy shit like below. I mean look at this again:

So because I don't believe this was actually a surveillance balloon, as evidenced by …..

I’m not aware of any news organization that’s not at least conceding the high probability that it’s a surveillance ballon. If you are confident that it isn’t, you are in a small minority on that.  

Edited February 6, 2023 by Lhorn

[Brian Fantana 6680]

20 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 

You seem quite certain the balloon provides nothing of value to China. Then why was it used? Why send a balloon into U.S. airspace and risk worsening diplomatic relations if they didn’t at least hope to learn something from it?

Do you really believe this was just an accident and that China had no bad intentions in all of this?

 

That is not what I said. You can rephrase your question without the strawman if you want a serious answer.

[skeeter 454]

Where's my Kung Pao order?

[Brian Fantana 6680]

6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

What in the hell are you talking about? You have no idea whether this balloon is doing surveillance and you sound like an idiot calling other people idiots for not trusting China. Not trusting China is a far more common sense viewpoint than you right now. You sound like a loon. 

That isn't what I'm saying (trusting China) and I quite literally conceded in the post you quoted that it likely has some degree of surveillance capability, even if it's just some cameras. My point is that in my opinion it's unlikely that its ultimate purpose is surveillance, because they already have far more effective and subtle methods of doing so already.

I'm perfectly willing to be wrong here, though. That's just my personal read on it. Has nothing to do with how I feel about China.

 

[FartingMonk 3606]

Nicole has now entered fucking balloons 

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, Lhorn said:

It was shot down.  Correct me if I’m wrong but it sounds like you are saying we didn’t shoot it down because we didn’t feel it was a threat.  In the time we spent watching it cross the continental US we learned nothing about its purpose except Chinese claims that it was benign.  So why’d we shoot it down if we didn’t feel like it was a threat?

Why would we try to capture foreign spy technology after we’ve already disabled its efficacy? Oh I don’t know, the tech nerds at Langley got bitchy when they cancelled Hawaiian shirt Friday so we decided to thrown them a bone and give them a new toy to play with 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Neonmoon

[YGIFS 19449]

I remember a country, a superpower actually.  They built fighter jets, sub-surface ICBM nuke subs, assault rifles, and decent vodka.  And one day...they decided to get into the business of social media.  They weren't great at it, the world saw it coming, but they did it anyway, it was almost...sort of a...test balloon.  

[TwiceHorn 31438]

47 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

That isn't what I'm saying (trusting China) and I quite literally conceded in the post you quoted that it likely has some degree of surveillance capability, even if it's just some cameras. My point is that in my opinion it's unlikely that its ultimate purpose is surveillance, because they already have far more effective and subtle methods of doing so already.

I'm perfectly willing to be wrong here, though. That's just my personal read on it. Has nothing to do with how I feel about China.

 

It has been pointed out that there are various things that can be surveilled more effectively from the comparatively low altitude of 60k feet than from from a geosynchronous orbit.

There's "threats," and "Threats," the latter posing some imminent danger, the former being more latent.  I'm fairly certain this is the former kind of threat; not innocuous but not going to kill or injure anyone in the near term.

My best guess is that this was China kind of thumbing their nose at us and taking a flyer, or floater as it were, on collecting some information.  You don't see it too, too often, but possibly the concept of "face" in reverse: trying to gain face at our expense or just cause us to lose face in some form or fashion.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by TwiceHorn

[Brisketexan 105069]

It was shot down.  Correct me if I’m wrong but it sounds like you are saying we didn’t shoot it down because we didn’t feel it was a threat.  In the time we spent watching it cross the continental US we learned nothing about its purpose except Chinese claims that it was benign.  So why’d we shoot it down if we didn’t feel like it was a threat?

You seriously think we learned nothing about it’s purpose? We could monitor any transmissions it was sending or receiving. We could visually inspect it in detail to see what instrumentation was on it.
It almost certainly wasn’t a material threat. However, once the public knew about it, we had to shoot it down to demonstrate that we care about their security.
It was not “benign.” China was surely fucking with us as well as conducting some sort of surveillance of limited utility. That’s not the end of the world, it’s the kind of shit that adversary nations do, and there are routine ways to handle it and respond.

[Bevo 13567]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theepochtimes.com%2Fchinese-aircraft-and-warship-incursion-puts-taiwan-military-on-alert_5025943.html

 

Asia & Pacific

Chinese Aircraft, Warship Incursions Put Taiwan Military on Alert

Taiwan's Air Force's Mirage 2000-5 aircraft at Hsinchu Air Base in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Jan. 11, 2023. (Ann Wang/Reuters)

By Naveen Athrappully

February 1, 2023Updated: February 1, 2023

 

Taiwan scrambled fighter jets, put its navy on alert, and activated missile systems on Feb. 1 in response to the Chinese military sending almost three dozen aircraft and some warships near the island nation’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

Thirty-four Chinese military aircraft and nine warships “around Taiwan were detected by 6 a.m.(UTC+8) today. R.O.C. Armed Forces have monitored the situation and tasked CAP aircraft, Navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond these activities,” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense wrote in a Feb. 1 tweet. Twenty “of the detected aircraft … had crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s southwest ADIZ.”

Such incursions are now almost a daily occurrence in the region, with Beijing carrying out such activities in an attempt to reinforce its military prowess.

The Chinese military sent a record 71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan at the end of December 2022, the largest such military exercise last year.

On Jan. 25, four Chinese aircraft and three naval vessels were detected by the Taiwanese military. The incursion followed just days after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen wrote a letter to Pope Francis on Jan. 23, noting that constructive interaction with China is only a possibility if Beijing respects Taiwan’s freedoms and democracy.

Military Annexation, War

Beijing insists that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory, and the communist regime has asserted that it won’t shy away from using force to annex the democratic, self-governing island.

On Jan. 11, Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said that Beijing was committed to “smashing plots for Taiwan independence,” according to The Associated Press. “The malicious support for Taiwan independence among anti-China elements in a few foreign countries are a deliberate provocation.”

Ma also warned that foreign politicians who interact with Taiwan are “playing with fire.” In recent months, politicians from the European Union and the United States had visited the island. In August 2022, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the highest-ranking U.S. official in 25 years to do so.

Meanwhile, U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, who heads the U.S. Air Mobility Command, warned about the possibility of the United States going to war with China in two years.

In a memo dated Feb. 1, Minihan points out that Chinese leader Xi Jinping secured a third term in October 2022 while both the United States and Taiwan are set to hold their presidential elections in 2024. The U.S. presidential election might offer Xi a “distracted America,” he notes.

“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025 … Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025. We spent 2022 setting the foundation for victory. We will spend 2023 in crisp operational motion building on that foundation,” he said in the memo.

China’s Taiwan Invasion

In October 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that China intends to move against Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” than earlier estimates. Xi has become “more repressive at home” and “more aggressive abroad.”

U.S. policy on Taiwan has so far allowed the people of the island nation to “really flourish” while also avoiding any conflict with China. But that’s changing as Beijing is speedily pursuing its unification push, he warned.

“If peaceful means didn’t work, then it [Beijing] would employ coercive means and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means—to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions.”

However, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan expressed hope on Jan. 5 that China can be deterred from launching an invasion against Taiwan and that the risk of a U.S. conflict with Beijing can be avoided “with responsible stewardship.”

Sullivan said the United States will need to follow through on “commitments of the Taiwan Relations Act,” which state that the country will “provide defensive articles to Taiwan,” besides maintaining “direct diplomacy” with the Chinese Communist Party.

He added that close “coordination with allies” in the region also will act as a deterrent to war.

Meanwhile, many Republicans are currently voicing support for the present House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to visit Taiwan after the regime in Beijing warned against such visits.

[YGIFS 19449]

People want to shoot things immediately they look different.  Film at 11

[Bevo 13567]

I found this article interesting:

US Would Run Out of Munitions in War With China: Report

Servicemen of Ukrainian Military Forces move U.S.-made FIM-92 Stinger missiles and the other military assistance shipped from Lithuania to Boryspil Airport in Kyiv, on Feb. 13, 2022. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)

By Andrew Thornebrooke

January 24, 2023Updated: January 24, 2023

biggersmaller

Print

 

 

The United States would likely run out of critical munitions during a major conflict with China’s communist regime due to its inability to adequately mobilize the defense industrial base, according to a new report.

The report, titled “Empty Bins in a Wartime Environment,” examines how the United States has depleted key arms reserves by supplying Ukraine’s resistance against Russian invasion, and extrapolates how a similar situation could negatively impact the nation in a wartime scenario.

“The U.S. defense industrial base is not adequately prepared for the competitive security environment that now exists,” says the report published on Jan. 23 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a security-focused think tank.

“In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), leading to a problem of ‘empty bins.’”

“Empty Bins” follows closely behind the release of results from CSIS wargames, which found that the United States would suffer from low levels of vital munitions in a war with China over the continued de facto independence of Taiwan.

That wargame found that Japan and the United States could likely defeat an invasion of Taiwan by communist China, but only at great cost in lives and materiel. In such a conflict, the United States would likely run out of long-range anti-ship missiles (LRASMs) early on.

“The problem is the U.S. has such low stockpiles for those long-range anti-ship missiles that in our wargames, in multiple iterations of the wargame, we run out [of LRASMs] in less than a week virtually every time,” said Seth Jones, the author of “Empty Bins,” in an associated video.

“We cannot fight in that case in protracted war because we don’t have sufficient supply of munitions.”

US Unprepared for a Major War

The United States’ ill-preparedness for a conflict with communist China has long been a point of contention among lawmakers and defense policy experts.

Taiwanese navy launches a U.S.-made Standard missile from a frigate during the annual Han Kuang Drill on the sea near the Suao navy harbor in Yilan county, Taiwan, on July 26, 2022. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)

Back in 2021, for example, Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) warned that the United States would “probably lose” a war for Taiwan, and noted trends in wargames over the past several years in which the United States regularly lost to China in simulated invasions of Taiwan.

“Empty Bins” adds further context to the issue by analyzing how the United States has rapidly depleted critical munitions through its support of Ukraine, noting that the nation’s stockpiles of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, 155-millimeter howitzers and ammunition, and Javelin anti-tank missile systems have plummeted.

The report notes that the United States has sent more Stinger missiles to Ukraine in the last year than have been built for all non-U.S. customers over the last 20 years. Likewise, the nation has delivered more than 1 million 155-mm artillery rounds to Ukraine, and only placed orders to replace a fraction of that amount.

“More broadly, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that competition and conflict between major powers will require a strong industrial base in the United States and in key ally and partner countries,” the report says.

“The effort to deploy, arm, feed, and supply forces is a monumental task, and the massive consumption of equipment, systems, vehicles, and munitions requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply.”

Thus, the report says, the problem is not that the United States is providing support to Ukraine, as a defense of Taiwan would draw largely on different kinds of munitions and weapons platforms. Instead, the problem rests in the United States’ sluggish procurement processes and lack of a robust defense industrial base for munitions manufacturing.

The Javelin surface-to-air missile system, for example, requires a production lead time of approximately 30 months. This means that, if the United States were to order new units of the system today, it would take more than two years before they were in the hands of the military.

Notably, such slow estimates are what is achievable in peacetime. During war, procurement could take much longer when supply chains are disrupted and vital components like rare earth elements are scarce.

“These shortfalls would make it extremely difficult for the United States to sustain a protracted conflict—and, equally concerning, the deficiencies undermine deterrence,” the report says.

“They also highlight that the U.S. defense industrial base lacks adequate surge capacity for a major war.”

To that end, the report recommends creating a “break-glass” plan in which the government could streamline industrial production, acquisition, and deployment in wartime.

Similarly, the report suggests that the United States create a strategic munitions reserve that would include subcomponents with long production lead times, like metals and electronics.

Only by shoring up its defenses and rebuilding its stockpiles now, the report says, can the United States deter or win a conflict later.

“The main problem is that the U.S. defense industrial base—including the munitions industrial base—is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war,” the report says.

“With growing competition between the United States and China—along with continuing threats from Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups—the U.S. military needs to be prepared to fight at least one major war, if not two.”

 

[YGIFS 19449]

So where did the excess bins from 2017-2021, go?  It's hardware.  It went somewhere.  Since we're playing the logic game.

[Bevo 13567]

4 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

So where did the excess bins from 2017-2021, go?  It's hardware.  It went somewhere.  Since we're playing the logic game.

“Empty Bins” adds further context to the issue by analyzing how the United States has rapidly depleted critical munitions through its support of Ukraine, noting that the nation’s stockpiles of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, 155-millimeter howitzers and ammunition, and Javelin anti-tank missile systems have plummeted.

The report notes that the United States has sent more Stinger missiles to Ukraine in the last year than have been built for all non-U.S. customers over the last 20 years. Likewise, the nation has delivered more than 1 million 155-mm artillery rounds to Ukraine, and only placed orders to replace a fraction of that amount.

[Brisketexan 105069]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

“Empty Bins” adds further context to the issue by analyzing how the United States has rapidly depleted critical munitions through its support of Ukraine, noting that the nation’s stockpiles of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, 155-millimeter howitzers and ammunition, and Javelin anti-tank missile systems have plummeted.

The report notes that the United States has sent more Stinger missiles to Ukraine in the last year than have been built for all non-U.S. customers over the last 20 years. Likewise, the nation has delivered more than 1 million 155-mm artillery rounds to Ukraine, and only placed orders to replace a fraction of that amount.

I think we've learned a shitload in the last about how much ammo/munitions are needed in an actual modern war between nation-states.

And we need to go to a wartime manufacturing footing to both restock and build even greater stocks of same, ASAP.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

I doubt we're getting into an artillery war with China.

[Bevo 13567]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think we've learned a shitload in the last about how much ammo/munitions are needed in an actual modern war between nation-states.

And we need to go to a wartime manufacturing footing to both restock and build even greater stocks of same, ASAP.

Some disjointed thoughts:

I agree but it is going to be tough if we want cuts in discretionary spending.

I don't know what Taiwan needs but based on what I am seeing they need stuff fast.

We've done well supplying other nations who are willing to fight but not so great when it is our own people especially in wars that don't directly affect us. Whether Taiwan remains independent isn't on the top of most american's minds. What this means in my mind is that we need to supply Taiwan with plenty of weapons but stay out of any direct conflict. And we shouldn't get too cocky with our success in Ukraine and think it was the US who is defeating Russia - We didn't lose 100,000 men.

[KeysPhoneWallet 807]

Re that empty bins article, China would be facing munition shortages after 6 months as well, that’s how these things go. You burn through everything then figure out a real supply chain later. The us would repurpose resources that aren’t better now and works develop an increased ammo supply line

[wild_turkey 3159]

Remember, they are saying the balloon was shot down at 60,000 feet, meaning that it likely was lowered to that altitude by China at the Pentagon's request so they could easily shoot it down with just a fighter jet, despite China's public protest at that action.

Please tell me you aren’t serious. You think the Pentagon asked China to lower the balloon to make it easier for us to shoot down and China agreed to do that?

[Nicole44 22058]

22 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 

Please tell me you aren’t serious. You think the Pentagon asked China to lower the balloon to make it easier for us to shoot down and China agreed to do that?

 

On Thursday the Pentagon publicly exposed the balloon, and after that, “China maneuvered the balloon to leave the U.S.,” Schumer told reporters Sunday. A U.S. official who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity confirmed that the balloon changed course at that point.

That it could be maneuvered ran counter to China’s contention that the balloon — claimed to be a civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research — had limited “self-steering” capabilities and had “deviated far from its planned course” because of winds. 

“This was not an accident. This was deliberate. It was intelligence, you know?″ said retired Adm. Mike Mullen, a former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman.

Asked whether elements of the Chinese military may have wanted to disrupt Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit, Mullen responded: “Clearly, I think that’s the case.”
https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-china-19e1f66a6db19f44548c402d81facc8e?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_02

 

we aren’t going to let China or any other adversary know when we first started tracking that balloon. Period. If they wanted to test our capabilities to track it they have tried coming through Canada, Florida, Texas and Hawaii so far. We simply aren’t going to let them know how long we’ve been monitoring it. Our hand was forced because regular Americans saw it. And we had to address it. 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Nicole44