Meanwhile in China

[atomheartbevo 89808]

On 4/5/2024 at 1:50 PM, utee94 said:

American companies have been starting to move manufacturing out of China for several years now, the pandemic exacerbated the problems and sped up the timelines for many of those companies.

But it took decades to get here and it'll take the same to unwind it.

It’s going to take a while, but it’s happening

https://www.engadget.com/tsmc-snags-66-billion-in-chips-act-funding-to-open-three-factories-in-arizona-165945639.html

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is receiving $6.6 billion in grants to build three fabrication plants, otherwise called fabs, in the region of Phoenix, Arizona. This is in addition to around $5 billion in government loans.

As part of this deal, TSMC agreed to expand its planned investment in Arizona by $25 billion, to $65 billion. The company already announced two of the three factories it is building in the state, with a third promised by 2030. The White House says this represents the largest foreign direct investment in Arizona’s history, with expectations to bring 6,000 high-wage tech jobs and 20,000 construction jobs to the state.

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One nifty aspect of these factories is that they’ll allow TSMC to complete every aspect of the chip-making process on US soil, including advanced packaging. I’m not talking about slapping a box and warranty information around the chip. In this context, packaging refers to arranging the various components to build the final product, in addition to adding power, inputs and outputs. As things currently stand, even components that are made in America are sent back to Taiwan for packaging and then mailed across the world yet again for the final sale. These Arizona factories will, eventually, put a stop to all of that jet-setting.

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Once all three factories are humming along, they will reportedly manufacture tens of millions of chips to power products like smartphones, autonomous vehicles and, of course, AI datacenter servers. Future iPhones and Macs will use 4nm and 3nm chips made at the Phoenix plants, thanks to a partnership with Apple. TSMC has already reported some delays with the first two factories, but the current plan is for the first fab to be fully operational by next year, with the second to follow in 2028 and the third by 2030.

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The federal government suggests that the US will manufacture 20 percent of the world’s leading-edge chips by 2030. “America invented these chips, but over time, we went from producing nearly 40 percent of the world’s capacity to close to 10 percent, and none of the most advanced chips, exposing us to significant economic and national security vulnerabilities”

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One of the main goals of the CHIPS Act is to lure global chipmakers to build on US soil, and it looks like it’s working. Last week, Samsung announced it would be doubling its investment in Texas to $44 billion, with plans for an ambitious expansion. The multinational semiconductor company GlobalFoundries received a grant of $1.5 billion to help pay for a new fabrication facility in New York that will handle the manufacture of chips for the automotive, aerospace, defense and AI industries. Intel recently received the largest CHIPS grant to date, snatching up to $8.5 billion to continue various US-based operations.

It’s going to take time, but at least we are on the right path.  

[Schulz2.0 29012]

[wild_turkey 3182]

Possibly a stupid question, but I’m curious why TSMC would invest in fabs in Arizona, given that semiconductor fabs require lots of water? Are there not better geographic options?

[atomheartbevo 89808]

20 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

Possibly a stupid question, but I’m curious why TSMC would invest in fabs in Arizona, given that semiconductor fabs require lots of water? Are there not better geographic options?

Now that the state is ending the leases from the Saudis to grow alfalfa in Arizona and ship it back to Saudi Arabia, maybe there’s some water that’s become available. 

[Walser 1110]

Possibly a stupid question, but I’m curious why TSMC would invest in fabs in Arizona, given that semiconductor fabs require lots of water? Are there not better geographic options?

In addition, Taiwan being the supplier of the most and best silicon, making them a priority for foreign protection…why would they give away some of that leverage?

[wild_turkey 3182]

In addition, Taiwan being the supplier of the most and best silicon, making them a priority for foreign protection…why would they give away some of that leverage?

Well that part makes sense to me. Taiwan would develop a better partnership with the U.S. in hopes that we would provide military protection when the time comes. And the fact that we are a major purchaser of their chips, and the $6B incentive we offered.

But why Arizona? Why build new fabs in the part of the country that is most starved for water?

[Gatorubet 30317]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:43 PM, atomheartbevo said:

It’s going to take a while, but it’s happening

https://www.engadget.com/tsmc-snags-66-billion-in-chips-act-funding-to-open-three-factories-in-arizona-165945639.html

It’s going to take time, but at least we are on the right path.  

I think that a spotlight on the vulnerabilities to our national defense and economic interests we’re given a kickstart by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - and our realization that a few bad actor states can cause horrific damage to the world’s economy, and that the fallout of that damage can lead to political unrest and a change in leadership to people favoring the bad actors.  

When you look at how the combat drone effectiveness is limited by chip availability, and then look at how we do not have a robust domestic chip manufacturing technology in our country, well, that has to give you pause - and a new found desire to make sure the USA has the native industries required to defend our country in future fights. 

[Parliament 14319]

15 hours ago, Walser said:

In addition, Taiwan being the supplier of the most and best silicon, making them a priority for foreign protection…why would they give away some of that leverage?

So the owners can get US Visa's and bug out of Taiwan before China blows it up?

[Schulz2.0 29012]

Germany's AfD isn't just employing Russian spies. Now they even have Chinese spies!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/afd-politician-employee-arrested-germany-on-suspicion-of-spying-for-china

[Superhero 8845]

On 4/10/2024 at 8:57 PM, wild_turkey said:

Possibly a stupid question, but I’m curious why TSMC would invest in fabs in Arizona, given that semiconductor fabs require lots of water? Are there not better geographic options?

Cheap land, tax incentives and cheap electricity. Data centers, which are energy hogs, are also popping up in AZ.

The fact that Phoenix (before semiconductors) grew made little sense. I thought it was a place for snowbirds who needed healthcare, which needed infrastructure, which needed people, which needed commerce, and it just spiraled up from there.

[Schulz2.0 29012]

[PRONG HORN 3159]

 

[tx 3 putt 77448]

On 4/30/2024 at 11:47 AM, Schulz2.0 said:

 

[Schulz2.0 29012]

[BabaYaga 15320]

On 5/3/2024 at 9:50 PM, PRONG HORN said:

 

Water is wet.  The Chinese own 15 of the 17 cobalt mines in the Congo.  The scenes from what is modern day slavery is horrific.  

[Superhero 8845]

Always wondered why "employees" take that kind of abuse and not fight back.

 

[gsoda3 3283]

Always wondered why "employees" take that kind of abuse and not fight back.
 

Growing up I always wondered why the slaves didn't revolt against the plantation owners. But then in high school I met some modern day slaves. It was heartbreaking.

[SydneyCarton 48189]

If any of these major hacks can be proven as Chinese, definitively, I've got to wonder when the US and GB just turn around and say "fuck it, time for reprisal" and just rip some top secret shit from China and spike a football. I feel like it's long overdue. 

 

[BabaYaga 15320]

19 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

19 hours ago, Superhero said:

Always wondered why "employees" take that kind of abuse and not fight back.
 

Growing up I always wondered why the slaves didn't revolt against the plantation owners. But then in high school I met some modern day slaves. It was heartbreaking.

Hegemony, even though revolts were fairly common

[BabaYaga 15320]

40 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If any of these major hacks can be proven as Chinese, definitively, I've got to wonder when the US and GB just turn around and say "fuck it, time for reprisal" and just rip some top secret shit from China and spike a football. I feel like it's long overdue. 

 

All their top secret is other people's top secret shit that China already stole.  They don't invent shit

[SydneyCarton 48189]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

All their top secret is other people's top secret shit that China already stole.  They don't invent shit

You're not wrong in regards to industry. But I bet they have some military shit they think is secret. And take credit. Just to let them know we can. 

[BabaYaga 15320]

China’s playing the long game.  Gobbling up vast amounts of global resources via their Belt & Road crap.  Their military is probably more advanced than Russia, but still is dependent on bodies and attrition overpowering smaller foes.  Their army is massive, but the verdict is still out on how effective it is. 

 

EX, their FOFO moment would be Taiwan – they say they’re going to take it.  Justified in taking it.  But I doubt they could.  They have “tech”, but not the right kind.  Hypersonic missiles and Gen 5 fighters won’t help them here.  They need old school landing craft, logistics, and staging boats to ferry material across that shit-tastic 100 mile journey in rough waters to the island that would be a MF’er for the US military to take…..let alone them.  I don’t think people understand what a fortress Taiwan is and almost impossible to take it would be while keeping the chip/waifer fab’s intact.

[Schulz2.0 29012]

 

[atomheartbevo 89808]

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Beijing has a shortage of landing ships, so civilian vessels will be used as military vessels.

 

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The publication  that China is capable of moving 300,000 vehicles across the Taiwan Strait in 10 days.

Russia couldn’t get 300,000 vehicles across a land border in two years, but China can move 300,000 vehicles across 100 miles of open, heavily contested ocean, in slow moving ships that generate big fucking radar signatures, in 10 days, even as every transport that is sunk increases slows down the rate.

 

 

[Parliament 14319]

It'll get a buncha young Chinese men killed.  It'd help with their gender balance.  So there's that.

[CHIEF 5095]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

It'll get a buncha young Chinese men killed.  It'd help with their gender balance.  So there's that.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say China will never be able to perform an amphibious assault. Every ship will be sunk before they can get there. They will be able to pound the hell out of Taiwan with ballistic missiles from the mainland, and may get a few paratroopers there. But a rag-tag group of commercial vessels with a handful of warships protecting them isn't getting within sight of the island.

CHIEF

[NeverMarryAStripper 21922]

I think their plan is that enough of their ships will be sunk in the strait that the rest of their army can drive across

[InkaUtexas 26120]

7 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

I think their plan is that enough of their ships will be sunk in the strait that the rest of their army can drive across

Bro, have you not seen their Army's gymnastics capabilities? Man, they all watched Bruce Lee movies more than once.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 hours ago, CHIEF said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say China will never be able to perform an amphibious assault. Every ship will be sunk before they can get there. They will be able to pound the hell out of Taiwan with ballistic missiles from the mainland, and may get a few paratroopers there. But a rag-tag group of commercial vessels with a handful of warships protecting them isn't getting within sight of the island.

CHIEF

I'm interested to hear your opinion on the notion of them using 300k small vessels.  Sure they'd lose a lot, but sinking that many ships with defense systems (sea mines and what not) that were designed to face naval vessels seems like it wouldn't be out of the question.  Mind you, I don't believe they are actually going to do this, and if they did their death toll would be unimaginable, but this sort of swarm attack seems to me like it would least have a shot at landing a considerable amount of troops.  

[Schulz2.0 29012]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm interested to hear your opinion on the notion of them using 300k small vessels.  Sure they'd lose a lot, but sinking that many ships with defense systems (sea mines and what not) that were designed to face naval vessels seems like it wouldn't be out of the question.  Mind you, I don't believe they are actually going to do this, and if they did their death toll would be unimaginable, but this sort of swarm attack seems to me like it would least have a shot at landing a considerable amount of troops.  

100 miles is still a long way to go with civilian ships when the enemy is actively trying to sink you.

[BamaATL 16593]

Just now, Schulz2.0 said:

100 miles is still a long way to go with civilian ships when the enemy is actively trying to sink you.

For sure, and I sure as shit wouldn't want to be in one of those boats.  However, just the sheer volume of that would worry me.  If the Chinese government takes the same approach as Russia does with the loss of human life, then will they really care that they lost say 100k of boats and men?  That would still leave 200k of boats and men to land.  Even if it's just 5 guys per boat, that's still 1 million that would land.  

I suppose to me at least, this sort of guerilla diy landing attempt is actually strategically more plausible than a conventional one (again, given the idea they potentially don't give a shit about human losses).  

[CHIEF 5095]

23 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm interested to hear your opinion on the notion of them using 300k small vessels.  Sure they'd lose a lot, but sinking that many ships with defense systems (sea mines and what not) that were designed to face naval vessels seems like it wouldn't be out of the question.  Mind you, I don't believe they are actually going to do this, and if they did their death toll would be unimaginable, but this sort of swarm attack seems to me like it would least have a shot at landing a considerable amount of troops.  

It’s 300k vehicles, not 300k boats. How many do you think they have that can unload vehicles straight onto the beach? If it happens it will be the biggest clusterfuck that the World has ever seen. Taiwan has been doing combat exercises for the last 75 years, since Armybrat was a kid. 
 

CHIEF

[Brisketexan 105367]

It’s 300k vehicles, not 300k boats. How many do you think they have that can unload vehicles straight onto the beach? If it happens it will be the biggest clusterfuck that the World has ever seen. Taiwan has been doing combat exercises for the last 75 years, since Armybrat was a kid. 
 
CHIEF

300k vehicles? Taiwan should turn their defense over to TXDOT, those vehicles will be stuck in traffic for weeks.

[CHIEF 5095]

I don’t know how there is enough room on the island for 300k vehicles, imagine the line to fill up at the Allsups, they will be out of burritos in less than 5 minutes. An army marches on it’s stomach. 
 

CHIEF

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

It’s 300k vehicles, not 300k boats. How many do you think they have that can unload vehicles straight onto the beach? If it happens it will be the biggest clusterfuck that the World has ever seen. Taiwan has been doing combat exercises for the last 75 years, since Armybrat was a kid. 
 

CHIEF

I gotcha, that makes sense, I'm just thinking of landing.  They'd have to bring conventional landing craft to bring that kind of cargo, but I suppose they could after the fact, assuming they could form some sort of bridgehead.  However, to your point, why bother?  If you've managed to land in a swarm way, why not just steal civilian vehicles as necessary until you have realistic ability to make cargo landfalls.  Again, all that assumes they have no care for loss of life, and that they would actually do something like that.  I don't think that's the case.  

I will say, if those were the circumstances with which I was presented, and I was tasked with planning how to do it, I'd at least consider this.  

[Bevo 13601]

17 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Taiwan has been doing combat exercises for the last 75 years, since Armybrat was a kid. 

[atomheartbevo 89808]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I gotcha, that makes sense, I'm just thinking of landing.  They'd have to bring conventional landing craft to bring that kind of cargo, but I suppose they could after the fact, assuming they could form some sort of bridgehead.  However, to your point, why bother?  If you've managed to land in a swarm way, why not just steal civilian vehicles as necessary until you have realistic ability to make cargo landfalls.  Again, all that assumes they have no care for loss of life, and that they would actually do something like that.  I don't think that's the case.  

I will say, if those were the circumstances with which I was presented, and I was tasked with planning how to do it, I'd at least consider this.  

I highly doubt their army has 300,000 dedicated vehicles that are available - they claim to have 2 million people in the PLA, but a sizable number of their soldiers and vehicles are deployed around the country, the borders (India, etc.).  Not to mention that Taiwanese streets/roads are easy to block off due to terrain (and they have prepared the means to easily block the exits off of the various beaches.

The whole thing is fucking insane though, given the distance and open ocean involved.  Just imagine all those drones and missiles and UAVs we see taking out vehicles in Ukraine being used to hammer away at civilian ships.

[CHIEF 5095]

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I was gonna say since he was in diapers, but he was probably 13-15. He is just a little older than my Dad was. My old man was born in January of 1945. 
 

CHIEF

[BigHorn'13 3387]

Educate me-- why by sea instead of air? 

[Macanudo 13014]

53 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

Educate me-- why by sea instead of air? 

Would you trust an air invasion to Generals Ho Lee Fuk and Sum Tin Wong?

[B00M 6466]

1 hour ago, BigHorn'13 said:

Educate me-- why by sea instead of air? 

What are they gonna do, use paratroopers, helicopters and jets to try to take a key airport so they can fly in heavy equipment? I feel like we’ve seen this before…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

Edited May 29 by B00M

[BigHorn'13 3387]

14 minutes ago, B00M said:

What are they gonna do, use paratroopers, helicopters and jets to try to take a key airport so they can fly in heavy equipment? I feel like we’ve seen this before…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

Seems like they're going to face similar challenges going the other route. I'm not well versed in taking over a country so I'm genuinely trying to understand why they're potentially going with a strategy everyone seems to be laughing at. 

[PTINS 3485]

On 5/27/2024 at 10:30 PM, atomheartbevo said:

I highly doubt their army has 300,000 dedicated vehicles that are available - they claim to have 2 million people in the PLA, but a sizable number of their soldiers and vehicles are deployed around the country, the borders (India, etc.).  Not to mention that Taiwanese streets/roads are easy to block off due to terrain (and they have prepared the means to easily block the exits off of the various beaches.

The whole thing is fucking insane though, given the distance and open ocean involved.  Just imagine all those drones and missiles and UAVs we see taking out vehicles in Ukraine being used to hammer away at civilian ships.

Me thinks China has been watching too many movies.

 

Loading and unloading 300,000 vehicles for an invasion would be a cluster fuck of epic proportions. It would be more like Dunkirk than Troy in that Taiwan's biggest concern would be not having enough ammo for the turkey shoot.

Spending ~ 5 hours bouncing around in a smallish boat so you can go rock climbing, on a volcanic island, loaded with provisions for a military invasion, all while somebody is shooting at you, sounds like a hoot and a half.

[Bevo 13601]

51 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Me thinks China has been watching too many movies.

 

Loading and unloading 300,000 vehicles for an invasion would be a cluster fuck of epic proportions. It would be more like Dunkirk than Troy in that Taiwan's biggest concern would be not having enough ammo for the turkey shoot.

Spending ~ 5 hours bouncing around in a smallish boat so you can go rock climbing, on a volcanic island, loaded with provisions for a military invasion, all while somebody is shooting at you, sounds like a hoot and a half.

 

Would Taiwan use a billion bullets or go for ten million artillery shells or <insert> Why not both gif <insert> ?

 

 

[RPM 26355]

They could do it, but it would be costly. The military buildup would be impossible to hide. China would have to stage troops, vehicles, ships, etc. That would trigger a defensive response from Taiwan's allies, mainly us. Slide a carrier battle group or two in the region and shit gets real. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

300k vehicles?  Are the Chinese insane?  Taiwan would surely capsize.

[InkaUtexas 26120]

No real way to do it from air. There is this pesky thing Taiwan has a lot of called SAM's and MANPads. Just aim for the fat blob and let the fighters go on past.

 

[B00M 6466]

2 hours ago, BigHorn'13 said:

Seems like they're going to face similar challenges going the other route. I'm not well versed in taking over a country so I'm genuinely trying to understand why they're potentially going with a strategy everyone seems to be laughing at. 

No one is actually laughing at it. Stopping a Chinese invasion will be extremely challenging and extremely costly to Taiwan and the United States. War games predict US subs rampaging but most also predict the US losing aircraft carrier(s). China is going to lob a metric fuck ton of missiles at Taiwan and US assets in the area. This is not something we want and there’s no guarantee we will actually prevail. The best thing we can do is continue to arm Taiwan to the fucking teeth, strengthen our alliances in the area (and their military might), and get the fuck out of the Middle East so we can concentrate more of our navy in the pacific to deter China from trying. 
 

The long term concern for me WRT a conflict with China is shipyard capacity. China’s ship building capacity is similar to our during world war 2. Ours can’t even maintain the fleet we have and surging money into it isn’t fixing it. 

Edited May 29 by B00M

[BrazilHorn 6634]

China has around 1.7M people in prison. I figure they give them all paintball guns and throw them at defenses first. 
 

There will be a measure or “quantity having a quality all of its own” here that will fall on side of Chinese. 
 

Also long game is to bribe/pay more and more politicians in Taiwan to be open to being annexed by China for personal gain. 

[Brisketexan 105367]

8 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Also long game is to bribe/pay more and more politicians in Taiwan to be open to being annexed by China for personal gain. 

Bingo.  What Russia TRIED to do in Ukraine, but had issues because it's Russian operatives are so crooked they took all the bribe money for themselves.