Buying a New Vehicle in this environment

[Royalfan5 2355]

I’d been planning on trading in my current vehicle this summer because it’s getting to be time too, or committing to driving the wheels off. Talked the guy I like to deal with, told me that nothing to be had on popular Ford models in this model year, can’t even put in an order. They implied they could probably put me in a Jeep, but I didn’t have them do an inventory search or anything yet to see if that’s true. Might look at a 4Runner but can’t imagine they aren’t in short supply at this point too. Has anyone else tried to buy anything recently?  

[gmr548 16617]

I really don’t see why you would unless you absolutely have to.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Supply shortage. Brother bought an “in demand” truck a year ago and MADE over 5K selling it back recently. First time I’ve ever heard of someone making money on a used car. 
 

 

[Royalfan5 2355]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I really don’t see why you would unless you absolutely have to.

They were dangling ridiculous trade value in front me which if they had something I wanted would have been pretty tempting to upgrade into a less cursed vehicle

[elfenix 34365]

is it just me or is the new tahoe weirdly proportioned?  i think the IRS has made it look like its on stilts. 

[RDCanecutter 26513]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

I’d been planning on trading in my current vehicle this summer because it’s getting to be time too, or committing to driving the wheels off. 

I am of the school of Drive the Wheels Off, Replace the Wheels, Then Drive Them Off Again.

If you are worried about status with the neighbors or something, just toss an old washing machine out in the front yard. They won't even notice the car after that.

[UT_OB1 2227]

I’ve been wanting to get a used truck to make working on our few rental properties easier.  I can’t seem to find (legitimate) trucks that don’t already have a ton of miles on it for less than $15-20k, and that’s not even getting me a an extended cab f150/Silverado type truck, and I’d prefer a crew cab. 
 

Are there really any trucks worth buying with 150-200k miles?  I don’t need it to look pretty, but the ac needs to work, it needs to move shit, and it needs to be safe. 

[jimmyjazz 46352]

I have a 2008 Subaru Lesbeca.  I'm looking to get $22K.  Cabo, here I come.

[fattyflattie 4639]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I need to unload my Escalade as it’s approaching 90,000 miles. I probably want a Denali XL but might go with a shorter one. Or a Tahoe High Country. What shoul

Wife has always had the normal sized one until this go around, when we went XL.  Can’t imagine going back.  I wouldn’t be afraid of 90k unless you just like new vehicles. The previous Denali is on ranch duty now at 240k-ish mostly trouble free miles.  

[Wally Fairway 5596]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

What should I do?

Post pictures of your wife (or at least her car) and we will make you an offer

Edited June 16, 2021 by Wally Fairway

[Guest Lobo]

Anecdotal, but based on the parts shipping demand going on with our dedicated fleet trucking---European Brands and likely U.S. brands are still in a crunch until Oct/Nov of this year.  And prices will reflect that.  We can't keep up it.  Again, anecdotal.  On a personal note, we're sticking with our old junkers until at about at the end of the year.  Good news though is financing is still aggressive if you can find the vroom-vroom you like.  And most important, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the car dealership in Texas.  And we will laugh and laugh about their demise until we are very old men.  

[woohorn 1131]

I figure auto manufactures always overcorrect so prices should plummet in 2022.

[TKthunder2 5012]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

And most important, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the car dealership in Texas.  And we will laugh and laugh about their demise until we are very old men.  

How so?  The Tesla exception that is hopefully about to get passed in the special session?  That was only for brands that have never had a dealership (I thought) so that’s going to be a very slim minority, unless I’m missing something…

[billfromlaketravis 11564]

I know to wait it out if I want a truck, but how long are we taking here? 

[fattyflattie 4639]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Value goes down considerably when you breach the 100K mark. It’s a 2015. It’s time buddy. It’s time. 

Yeah I get that. And people do things different; I run them until they actually develop issues (rarely do these days).  I’m a new truck buyer, but wife doesn’t care so it works out for us.  Last 2 we bought at 1.5 yo for about ~60% of what they drive off the lot for.  I’m ok with that.  I think we just slipped in on the last one before prices went crazy.  I felt very OK with what we paid. 

[LCHorn 2635]

31 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’ve got some good family friends that are dealers in Austin and DFW. I won’t laugh. Is this like your prediction about banks?

I agree-I think the little fiefs that have developed with the dealer model aren’t in line with our vision of American capitalism, but it’s better than sending all the profit to Detroit or Tokyo.  At least with the current system some of that gets recycled into the local economy (Coverts need groceries, too).  

[Guest Lobo]

58 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’ve got some good family friends that are dealers in Austin and DFW. I won’t laugh. Is this like your prediction about banks?

My prediction about banks isn't mine, it's the plurality in the industry.  And it wasn't about the banks themselves (just like cars/trucks aren't going anywhere), but about branches closing because of the unnecessary cost of expensive branch locations, including our bank.  We estimate about 4,000+ branches will close in 2021 alone.  10,000 branches will be closing a year by the end of the decade.  Covid-19 just accelerated what we already knew to be true, people don't like driving to banks to do shit they can do on their phone.  Banks offer less competitive rates because of their own baked-in high G&A.  Obviously some of the branch trimming will also be due to M&A/A&D.  

https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2021/04/the-real-story-on-bank-branch-closures/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/palashghosh/2021/01/29/us-banks-closing-branches-at-rapid-pace-making-poor-and-rural-customers-vulnerable-to-usurious-lenders/?sh=66da8eb07691

As for car dealerships.  The automobile products aren't going away (just like loans & deposits), but how we get them is changing.  It's gonna take awhile in Texas, more than in other states.  But the cracks are beginning to show.  In many other states, new car dealerships are no longer seeing used car sales/service making up as much of their revenue stream as it once did with disruptive companies like Carvana, Shift, Vroom, et. al.  And then there's the new car-direct-to-consumer model.  Tesla is catching a lot of arrows in the back for being the first over the ridge.  This one is a little nerdy and long:  https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/distribution-of-vehicles-in-the-u-s-and-58391/

But eventually even mainstream brands (Nissan, Volkswagen, et. al.), in certain states, ship directly to you from the port (obviously at a higher cost for 'destination fee').  It's a decade away from happening, but legislation in many states, even Michigan, points to this eventual reality.  It's actually not bad news for dealerships if they can adapt correctly.  They already offer you the ability to order a customized-option car that isn't available on the lot or within their network of dealerships.  They still get paid on that car between dealer holdback and in-house financing.  Eventually they may realize they don't need 40 acres with massive inventory.  Reduce that inventory by 50%+ and keep your margin centers like the service department, in-house financing, and dealer-installed accessories.  Consumers may opt to order direct from the factory (as they are already doing with Tesla and a handful of other premium brands).  But they'll still come back to the dealer servicing, especially during the warranty phase.  If the dealerships are smart, they'll be proactive and arrange a monopoly on the financing of those factory-direct vehicles before the laws are changed.  I just don't see how the model, as it exists today, is unchanged for the dealer by the end of this decade.  I'm probably wrong, but there's an army of smart people out there who are gunning solely to upend the dealership monopoly in many states (as I said Texas will be one of the last to change).  

To tie it back to the OP...many of us know family and friends that are getting offers from dealerships right now to trade their recent purchase for an even newer model.  Financing is cheap, the incentives are there, the chip backlog is getting worse somehow, and many other mitigating factors.  I am very curious to see how this compressed inventory cycle we are in affects dealerships here in Texas.  People are going in for an oil change or standard warrant maintenance and walking out with an offer for their current car that is what they paid for it 2 years ago.  This will be an interesting case study in how dealerships will evolve or devolve in the next 18 months.  

[royiv 9403]

49 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I agree-I think the little fiefs that have developed with the dealer model aren’t in line with our vision of American capitalism, but it’s better than sending all the profit to Detroit or Tokyo.  At least with the current system some of that gets recycled into the local economy (Coverts need groceries, too).  

Dealership owners like the Coverts are few and far between these days. Most dealerships are owned by large national conglomerates (AutoNation, Berkshire Hathaway, Sonic, Penske, etc). Most of those dollars leave the community.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2741]

I'm looking as well, but the selection is not what I had hoped for.  

[SimonBolivar 10961]

I usually do maybe 20 car loans a month and this month I could easily pull 50 if I tried. There are plenty of buyers and no deals to be had anywhere.

[Guest Lobo]

Are you in house somewhere or at a bank?  Or online?   None of the above?   Curious from my bank’s perspective.  

[RDCanecutter 26513]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Are you in house somewhere or at a bank?  Or online?   None of the above?   Curious from my bank’s perspective.  

He's a pimp.

[DonkeyCigars 143]

This is why I put $100 pre-order in on the new Ford Lightning. Like 99,999 other schmoes: https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2021/06/10/ford-f-150-lightning-electric-demand-reservation-orders/7633277002/

[ZB'Tejas 594]

On 6/15/2021 at 6:46 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

Wife had a ‘19 QX80. I got into a ‘21 QX80 at a lower price. The value on used SUVs is ridiculous. 

I need to unload my Escalade as it’s approaching 90,000 miles. I probably want a Denali XL but might go with a shorter one. Or a Tahoe High Country. What should I do?

I have the '21 Tahoe. 3rd row has plenty of space and still provides some storage in the back. Granted I only have 2 kids but it's given me enough room for hauling stuff on road trips.

[DonkeyCigars 143]

5 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I have the '21 Tahoe. 3rd row has plenty of space and still provides some storage in the back. Granted I only have 2 kids but it's given me enough room for hauling stuff on road trips.

Had the '20 Tahoe. With 3 or more kids it's not possible. The cargo space is poo poo when you have the 3rd row up and in use, a city jogger stroller and 1 bag of groceries maybe can fit. 

Had to go with the '21 Escalade ESV which was a large amount of money but that size was honestly necessary, but with the new body style/trim, I think I can get my value out of it and be in the black if I keep it for a decade.

[DonkeyCigars 143]

36 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

 

I have 3 kids. I’m constantly hauling them to and from football, hoops, baseball and lax tourneys. Most of those have a lot of equipment. I carpool and take other kids too. Also, we will drive to CO or FL, and my wife likes overpacking the fuck out of each one of our kids. I think Donkey answered my question. I think. 

Zero chance the Tahoe will work. You need the Yukon XL or ESV or Suburban sized SUV's.

We went to Destin in the Tahoe with only 2 kids and the luggage/bags barely fit.

We looked at Minivans and even the cargo space in a minivan is very small when all seats are in use.

Like everyone else in the 90's/00's I made fun of the Excursion or whatever that huge SUV was called, but man, I get it now.

Edited June 18, 2021 by DonkeyCigars

[ZB'Tejas 594]

47 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

 

I have 3 kids. I’m constantly hauling them to and from football, hoops, baseball and lax tourneys. Most of those have a lot of equipment. I carpool and take other kids too. Also, we will drive to CO or FL, and my wife likes overpacking the fuck out of each one of our kids. I think Donkey answered my question. I think. 

I'd agree. If you have to road trip and need the 3rd row in use you would be stuck using some turtle shell or some shit. In that case the extra space is probably the right answer. The thing I do like about my model is the entertainment system behind each headrest. You can run independent sources to each so each kids can watch whatever they want. I have an Apple TV running on one and a Roku on the other. Comes in handy for those road trips.

[fattyflattie 4639]

XL is where it’s at. Trip to FL with 3 girls and wife, and all the luggage that comes with. Easy peasy.  Fucking 6.2, 4x4 on 33’s, and still got 22mpg. Crazy how much better it is than the Denali it replaced.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26614]

On 6/15/2021 at 9:26 PM, fattyflattie said:

Wife has always had the normal sized one until this go around, when we went XL.  Can’t imagine going back.  

Phrasing

[B00M 6520]

6 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Phrasing

Edited June 20, 2021 by B00M
She's extremely satisfied

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4979]

Full sized van is really the best answer for families and road trips. Especially if they involve something like camping that requires extra gear. I can have the third row in and still fit out double stroller in the back without even folding it up. And for tens of thousands less than a suburban or comparable.

[Incredulity 11684]

2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Full sized van is really the best answer for families and road trips. Especially if they involve something like camping that requires extra gear. I can have the third row in and still fit out double stroller in the back without even folding it up. And for tens of thousands less than a suburban or comparable.

Downside: getting a wife to agree to drive a full-size van.

[ChickenSandwich 9856]

[Hornlover 8849]

Have you investigated large passenger vans? Either the Mercedes Sprinter, Nissan NV3500, or Ram Promaster?

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

Unless those things have changed in driveability since the 2000s, they are a pain in the ass and a wreck waiting to happen all the time.  You will hate yourself having to drive them everyday unless you are getting paid for it. 

[Surly Bevo 25261]

11 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Unless those things have changed in driveability since the 2000s, they are a pain in the ass and a wreck waiting to happen all the time.  You will hate yourself having to drive them everyday unless you are getting paid for it. 

Bang bus video shoots on the side.

[TKthunder2 5012]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Bang bus video shoots on the side.

Buy a van

Ask pretty girls if they want a ride

Film it

Post on surly

Profit

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4979]

They are no worse to drive than a 3500 pickup truck.

[washparkhorn 9939]

The Sprinter in the active market has produced some good builds for those inclined.

It's overkill for Denver or Aspen. 

But if I had the luxury of living in or near a snow, mountain, rock, or desert playground, I would look at the builders using the 4WD model. It's raised 3 to 4 inches (std) and has the best drivetrain of the sprinter platform (std.).

An example from https://sportsmobile.com/mercedes-benz-4x4-sprinter/

I can't imagine pulling up in a car line to pick up the kids in this, but it might be amusing for some of youse guys.

For backcountry devotees, this looks like a capable base camp. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

Sorry for the derail. Back to the topic.

The GM line of big SUV's are great for families. Smoot highway drivers (once you get used to the size).

My family of 5 + 1 grandmom put a lot of miles in a Suburban going to and from the Midwest and the Western mountains with 1/10 the complaints a regular Tahoe.

• The captain chairs in the second row were key my needs.
• Tinted windows dark in the passenger area (so they feel like movie stars) or when they just need space. 
• The back two seats were chill and were primo spots.
• The cargo hold is ample for the biggest of packers.
• Rack ready for skis/bikes.
  • Trailer hitch pod with lights hookup is available from Thule/Yakima when extra equipment is needed. 

It's a versatile vehicle.

[Hornlover 8849]

We have 3 kids and a Chrysler Pacifica minivan. It has surprisingly good cargo space, even with all the seats up. We added a trailer hitch for carrying bikes but could put a cargo carrier basket or more if we thought we needed more. 

[Hornlover 8849]

Oh, and way easier to access the 3rd row for kids and teens than our old SUV. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13536]

10 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Sprinter in the active market has produced some good builds for those inclined.

It's overkill for Denver or Aspen. 

But if I had the luxury of living in or near a snow, mountain, rock, or desert playground, I would look at the builders using the 4WD model. It's raised 3 to 4 inches (std) and has the best drivetrain of the sprinter platform (std.).

An example from https://sportsmobile.com/mercedes-benz-4x4-sprinter/

I can't imagine pulling up in a car line to pick up the kids in this, but it might be amusing for some of youse guys.

For backcountry devotees, this looks like a capable base camp. 

These newer passenger vans visually appear to have a high center of gravity and could easily flip. Is that reality or just a perception?

[Nivek 17016]

Zero chance the Tahoe will work. You need the Yukon XL or ESV or Suburban sized SUV's.
We went to Destin in the Tahoe with only 2 kids and the luggage/bags barely fit.
We looked at Minivans and even the cargo space in a minivan is very small when all seats are in use.
Like everyone else in the 90's/00's I made fun of the Excursion or whatever that huge SUV was called, but man, I get it now.

I think you have too much shit. I used to schlep around 3 in a JX35 with all of their stuffed animals luggage and wife packing for 3x the duration.

A Sienna has 30 cubic feet of cargo behind the 3rd row. If I only had 2 kids I would opt for a 2 row suv and have about 38 cubic feet (edge) or 20ish in the that alfa suv.

Plus there is always roof storage for additional cargo if necessary.

[DonkeyCigars 143]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

I think you have too much shit. I used to schlep around 3 in a JX35 with all of their stuffed animals luggage and wife packing for 3x the duration.

A Sienna has 30 cubic feet of cargo behind the 3rd row. If I only had 2 kids I would opt for a 2 row suv and have about 38 cubic feet (edge) or 20ish in the that alfa suv.

Plus there is always roof storage for additional cargo if necessary.

yea, with toddlers/infants, and strollers and crap of everyone else, there is too much stuff.

Also, my understanding was the roof storage was what we were trying to avoid.

[Nivek 17016]

45 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

yea, with toddlers/infants, and strollers and crap of everyone else, there is too much stuff.

Also, my understanding was the roof storage was what we were trying to avoid.

I get it.  I used to do 6-8 hr road trips with the Edge and 2 kids, and the same in a JX35 with 3, but we didnt have any twins which would have made it more chaotic.  

I almost went with a Pilot but the stupid folding arm and the short telescoping steering wheel busted it for me, same for the odessey.  The Sienna was a coin flip from the Atlas.   But I also had to reason that I spend 350+ days not actually driving on road trips.  

[Wally Fairway 5596]

On 6/18/2021 at 5:05 PM, DonkeyCigars said:

Zero chance the Tahoe will work. You need the Yukon XL or ESV or Suburban sized SUV's.

We went to Destin in the Tahoe with only 2 kids and the luggage/bags barely fit.

We looked at Minivans and even the cargo space in a minivan is very small when all seats are in use.

Like everyone else in the 90's/00's I made fun of the Excursion or whatever that huge SUV was called, but man, I get it now.

Loved my 'burb, back when we had 4 small children (6 & under), it could hold the double stroller and 2 pop up cribs if need be with room for luggage, coolers, a booster and 3 car seats it was fucking glorious . Gas mileage sucked but it was about the last year with a 44 gallon tank, so it still had the ability to go longer than the wife & kids could go between stops. Took it to Texas, Florida, DC, Minneapolis, Toronto and the UP. And it was virtually indestructible - surviving a head on deer accident, shit head son rolling it while out 4-wheeling, but Michigan winters (salty roads & shitty GM design to the rear doors) and said shithead son shearing off a 5 1/2" diameter tree finally made it too expensive to fix; I'm still kinda pissed that we didn't get 300,000 miles out of is, as it died with just > 294,000 on it

Last car show I went to it seemed like a "nice" new Burb had about a $60k entry point and you could easily get one priced over $100k

[CooterBrown 18038]

These newer passenger vans visually appear to have a high center of gravity and could easily flip. Is that reality or just a perception?

All those sprinters are complete shit unless you spend $50K+ on an after market build out. They are utility vans with poor seats in the cargo area. If you want it to at least as nice as a mid level SUV, it’ll cost you quite a bit on top of the purchase price.

[Bozo_Casanova 26614]

23 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Sprinter in the active market has produced some good builds for those inclined.

It's overkill for Denver or Aspen. 

But if I had the luxury of living in or near a snow, mountain, rock, or desert playground, I would look at the builders using the 4WD model. It's raised 3 to 4 inches (std) and has the best drivetrain of the sprinter platform (std.).

An example from https://sportsmobile.com/mercedes-benz-4x4-sprinter/

I can't imagine pulling up in a car line to pick up the kids in this, but it might be amusing for some of youse guys.

For backcountry devotees, this looks like a capable base camp. 

I saw a bunch of those in Taos/Backcountry NM this spring and came back wanting one for adventures but I don’t want to spend the $125k+ for a vacation adventure only vehicle so an Outback will have to do for now. 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Bozo_Casanova

[B00M 6520]

9 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Loved my 'burb, back when we had 4 small children (6 & under)

your poor wife