Nightmare Civil War 2.0 Scenarios

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

17 hours ago, elfenix said:

when they say it's temporary they mean that after the global economy works through its covid related supply issues that we'll go back to struggling to hit 2% from below.  not that prices will generally backslide. 

Sorry, mate, I'm not an economist.  Can you please 'splain?

[atomheartbevo 89449]

10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

What you’re talking about, though, depends on norms that everybody recognizes holding. 

10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It is basically the argument that “it can’t happen here.” But it can, and with the GOP’s laser focus on things like down ballot races and the judiciary in purple states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia— it becomes even more likely.

The NG does not need to be everywhere. This is how things start, not where it ends. Most conflicts start locally and often stay that way. And this isn’t how this turns into pitched battles with opposing armies, it’s how we slowly slip into a festering crisis that moves back and forth on the political-kinetic scale. 

In the 1860s, if you or I were rich, that means we had gold and silver, land, maybe a factory or some other businesses, whatever.  As long as invading soldiers didn't fuck our shit up, we are fine (barring inflation/deflation), because we are (mostly) geographically insulated from everything else happening.  Shit happening in Pennsylvania at Gettysburg or Sherman fucking up Atlanta doesn't cause our bank in Small Town, Texas to shut down, and it doesn't make our gold or silver disappear, doesn't cause our employees to not show up for work, does not cause our ranch to shut down and keep us from driving some cattle into town to sell for meat.  Because so much of America was rural in the 1860s, and everybody had gardens, could easily hunt, and because people were spread out, we could feed ourselves.

In 2021, the kind of disruption you are talking about wipes out wealth everywhere, with no facet of society untouched, because it's not geography-based and because our wealth is tied into the electrical and internet systems remaining up and running - it's not this group of states versus that group of states, it's this group of people in town versus that group of people in the 20,000 or so incorporated towns and cities across America.  It causes banks to shut down everywhere, and there's no business that would go untouched, outside of some farm in rural Texas that is selling unpasteurized milk or raw honey or whatever (they'd just have to accept things in trade). You and I as rich people in 2021 would suddenly find ourselves cut off from our wealth, our stock market holdings, etc. outside of whatever we had on hand (and it's doubtful our paper currency would be worth much since distribution networks for food and other necessities would be down everywhere).  Our land is worthless if we can't sell it to anybody else because every bank in America is shut down, so people would be paying with whatever they have on hand.  Our vehicles are worthless without fuel.  Our businesses can't run without electricity.   Unless we are in very specific areas of the US, the vast majority of us will not have easy access (walking distance) to a farm that could feed us.  Because the fight would be between groups living within the same geographical area, our employees wouldn't show up, even if there was electricity (and there won't be).

These scenarios about the GOP pushing us into Civil War III all rely on the GOP knowingly deciding to destroy the vast majority of wealth in this country, including their own.  It relies on their donors deciding they are fine with losing most of their wealth.

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

10 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The biggest thing that doesn’t get lasts mentioned here is external to the United States. In almost all modern civil wars, one or the other side or both has backing from global or regional powers to keep some level of money/fighters/equipment flowing. And, when things get really bad, even bigger powers step in to try and moderate civilian losses and atrocities— and in doing so, prevent a decisive victory by the superior side (Yugoslavia, Syria). 

There are no nations currently in a position to play that role vis a vis the United States and its nuclear arsenal. The fracture of the Soviet Union (chaotic regional independence and localized— but heavy— violence) might be a good place to begin. 

There's a bigger problem, that I mentioned in my other post - a Civil War III is going to utterly destroy the economy of the United States.  Some small farmers might get by with bartering (and I do mean small - no electricity and fuel distribution means back to horse and wagon days), but that's it.  Think about how many countries have wealth tied into the US, how many BMD types, etc.

If the economy of the US craters, that will take down many countries who could back either side.  China's economy would be devastated if the US goes down, which is why we will never go to war with China - for all of their bluster and pride, they don't want to go to war with a country who could shut down their economy and put hundreds of millions of Chinese workers in the streets.

[elfenix 34171]

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Sorry, mate, I'm not an economist.  Can you please 'splain?

january 25, 2012, the fed declared a 2% inflation target.  from then until the pandemic recession started, the all items CPI averaged 1.5773%, going from 227.842 on january 1, 2012 (the last date before the announced target), to 258.824 on february 1, 2020 (the peak CPI value prior to the recession, march was already downhill). 

 

edit: from the end of HW's recession in march of 1991 to the pandemic recession the average is 2.2495%.  that's basically nothing anyone is going to worry about. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by elfenix

[956 Worldwide 34444]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

In the 1860s, if you or I were rich, that means we had gold and silver, land, maybe a factory or some other businesses, whatever.  As long as invading soldiers didn't fuck our shit up, we are fine (barring inflation/deflation), because we are (mostly) geographically insulated from everything else happening.  Shit happening in Pennsylvania at Gettysburg or Sherman fucking up Atlanta doesn't cause our bank in Small Town, Texas to shut down, and it doesn't make our gold or silver disappear, doesn't cause our employees to not show up for work, does not cause our ranch to shut down and keep us from driving some cattle into town to sell for meat.  Because so much of America was rural in the 1860s, and everybody had gardens, could easily hunt, and because people were spread out, we could feed ourselves.

In 2021, the kind of disruption you are talking about wipes out wealth everywhere, with no facet of society untouched, because it's not geography-based and because our wealth is tied into the electrical and internet systems remaining up and running - it's not this group of states versus that group of states, it's this group of people in town versus that group of people in the 20,000 or so incorporated towns and cities across America.  It causes banks to shut down everywhere, and there's no business that would go untouched, outside of some farm in rural Texas that is selling unpasteurized milk or raw honey or whatever (they'd just have to accept things in trade). You and I as rich people in 2021 would suddenly find ourselves cut off from our wealth, our stock market holdings, etc. outside of whatever we had on hand (and it's doubtful our paper currency would be worth much since distribution networks for food and other necessities would be down everywhere).  Our land is worthless if we can't sell it to anybody else because every bank in America is shut down, so people would be paying with whatever they have on hand.  Our vehicles are worthless without fuel.  Our businesses can't run without electricity.   Unless we are in very specific areas of the US, the vast majority of us will not have easy access (walking distance) to a farm that could feed us.  Because the fight would be between groups living within the same geographical area, our employees wouldn't show up, even if there was electricity (and there won't be).

These scenarios about the GOP pushing us into Civil War III all rely on the GOP knowingly deciding to destroy the vast majority of wealth in this country, including their own.  It relies on their donors deciding they are fine with losing most of their wealth.

 

Unfortunately history is full of examples of people who should really know better making a series of provocative but not completely unreasonable, ruinous decisions. Things snowball, positions harden, miscommunication sets in, pride, ego, and flattery find their seats at the table and and chance (or what the ancients would retrospectively label Nemesis after it happened) intervenes. Our own Civil War is a good example of this, as an extremely wealthy, influential class of citizens made decision after decision designed to protect their most vital interests. And those decisions, ultimately led to the utter collapse and loss of the very thing that they wanted to protect before all else.

We like to consider alternate history, “what if the South won.” But what if the South had chosen to lose on its terms? What if, in August 1862, before the Emancipation marked a point of no return— the South sued for peace after mauling Union forces and showing the North the true cost of the fight? Re-entry to the Union, with guarantees for slavery in the seceding states and some form of compromise favorable to the South on the territory question. I submit Lincoln would have had a difficult time accepting “surrender” on those terms. I’d further say that this decision would have been imminently reasonable and more likely to result in anything looking like “success” for the Southern interests who started the war to begin with. Yet no one even considered it and to have done so would have had you likely labeled treasonous. 
 

There are always off ramps to a crisis. Most of the time the exit seems obvious in retrospect, when things cool down. When they don’t, it’s because they are just blown past without even a glance at the map— just a fixation on the destination you think you’re speeding to. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by 956 Worldwide

[Brisketexan 104628]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

These scenarios about the GOP pushing us into Civil War III all rely on the GOP knowingly deciding to destroy the vast majority of wealth in this country, including their own.  It relies on their donors deciding they are fine with losing most of their wealth.

This is incorrect.  The donors would NOT be fine with losing it all, and they aren't fine with it now.

What this scenario depends on is the donor/puppetmaster class losing control of the monster they have created.  I think that's already happened.  The monster is loose, and even worse, the fucking misjudging power-hungry idiots are continuing to feed the beast.  When it destroys the whole city, including their block, it will be their recklessness that is behind it all.

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Brisketexan

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There are always off ramps to a crisis. 

I think the differentiator here is, with technology and the internet and stuff, we are actually aware of just how fucking stupid half of America is, and it's depressing.  I mean, fucking Wal-Mart is now the leading edge in the diabetes market.  Not the US government, some corporation from Arkansas.

Edited June 30, 2021 by Judge Roybeanbag

[956 Worldwide 34444]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is incorrect.  The donors would NOT be fine with losing it all, and they aren't fine with it now.

What this scenario depends on is the donor/puppetmaster class losing control of the monster they have created.  I think that's already happened.  The monster is loose, and even worse, the fucking misjudging power-hungry idiots are continuing to feed the beast.  When it destroys the whole city, including their block, it will be their recklessness that is behind it all.

 

There is also an ever accelerating shift of true massive and responsible business interests to one party as the other party radicalizes and as culture war battle lines harden and you want to be on one side. Who are the big players to the GOP cause? Payday lenders. Casino moguls. Eccentric slingers of made for tv products and craft supplies. MLM magnates. And extractive industries.
 

 The rest are, if not outright lining up with the Dems, are barely pretending to be neutral. And that removes some important brakes.

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

2 hours ago, elfenix said:

january 25, 2012, the fed declared a 2% inflation target.  from then until the pandemic recession started, the all items CPI averaged 1.5773%, going from 227.842 on january 1, 2012 (the last date before the announced target), to 258.824 on february 1, 2020 (the peak CPI value prior to the recession, march was already downhill). 

 

edit: from the end of HW's recession in march of 1991 to the pandemic recession the average is 2.2495%.  that's basically nothing anyone is going to worry about. 

What about from Feb. 1, 2020 to now? And the coming months? That's the period where it appears that inflation will blow past that target.

[elfenix 34171]

Just now, Ojo Rojo said:

What about from Feb. 1, 2020 to now? And the coming months? That's the period where it appears that inflation will blow past that target.

again, most seem to expect that prices will rise as the pandemic-related supply chain issues work themselves out, but then we'll settle back. 

far more important than inflation is real growth.  you get real wage growth, especially at the bottom, then who gives a fuck if the billionaires don't make an extra (real) billion this year?

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

Just now, elfenix said:

again, most seem to expect that prices will rise as the pandemic-related supply chain issues work themselves out, but then we'll settle back. 

far more important than inflation is real growth.  you get real wage growth, especially at the bottom, then who gives a fuck if the billionaires don't make an extra (real) billion this year?

This goes back to what I said originally - prices have already risen noticeably and I don't believe businesses are going to just voluntarily roll back prices.  I think those price increases are here to stay and I think the buying power of our dollars has already shrunk.  I'm not worried about growth.  Pent up demand from the pandemic will help a lot.

[elfenix 34171]

1 minute ago, Ojo Rojo said:

This goes back to what I said originally - prices have already risen noticeably and I don't believe businesses are going to just voluntarily roll back prices.  I think those price increases are here to stay and I think the buying power of our dollars has already shrunk.  I'm not worried about growth.  Pent up demand from the pandemic will help a lot.

prices won't overall backslide.  i already said that.  that would be deflation.  but one pandemic hike isn't 5% year on year on year (which even then wouldn't be terrible if the real economy is going gangbusters).  and some of the main drivers are already well on their way back down:

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

Just now, elfenix said:

prices won't overall backslide.  i already said that.  that would be deflation.  but one pandemic hike isn't 5% year on year on year (which even then wouldn't be terrible if the real economy is going gangbusters).  and some of the main drivers are already well on their way back down:

Sorry, I thought prices falling is what you meant by "settle back."  I agree that deflation is bad, but if you have a spike in prices followed by decrease, would that still be deflation?  I guess it would depend over how long of a period you net it out.  Anyway, glad to see the price of lumber going down.  That's a big one.

[Brisketexan 104628]

3 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

This goes back to what I said originally - prices have already risen noticeably and I don't believe businesses are going to just voluntarily roll back prices.  I think those price increases are here to stay and I think the buying power of our dollars has already shrunk.  I'm not worried about growth.  Pent up demand from the pandemic will help a lot.

Ummmmm....prices generally WON'T roll back, but to the extent that some were driven by temporary scarcity/higher demand, they HAVE already gone back down some (see lumber, well off of its highs).  But the bigger point here is that while there may be a short-term period of higher inflation, but over a longer term -- even a full year, the overall rate will moderate.

If you have years of 2%, a year of 6%, and then it settles back down to 2% for the next couple of years, your overall inflation rate just isn't a concern.  The concern is if the spike hits, then stays.  It's the rate of INCREASE, not the  prices themselves.  So, maybe prices increased by 6% this past year, but then their rate of increase will settle back to normal -- 2% or so.

Again, we don't know exactly what will happen going forward, but that's where much of the expectation is.

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Ummmmm....prices generally WON'T roll back, but to the extent that some were driven by temporary scarcity/higher demand, they HAVE already gone back down some (see lumber, well off of its highs).  But the bigger point here is that while there may be a short-term period of higher inflation, but over a longer term -- even a full year, the overall rate will moderate.

If you have years of 2%, a year of 6%, and then it settles back down to 2% for the next couple of years, your overall inflation rate just isn't a concern.  The concern is if the spike hits, then stays.  It's the rate of INCREASE, not the  prices themselves.  So, maybe prices increased by 6% this past year, but then their rate of increase will settle back to normal -- 2% or so.

Again, we don't know exactly what will happen going forward, but that's where much of the expectation is.

Agree 100%.  I know these are unusual times, but I've never seen price increases like this in my lifetime and it scared me.  What scared me even more was that the experts, govt. officials and media acknowledged it, but said it's temporary. Seemed like whistling past the graveyard. We've had price increases, but other drivers of inflation, like massive influxes of cash into the economy from the federal government, are also present.  It sure felt like we overdid it with the stimmies when maybe we didn't need to.  Or didn't target the money to the right places.  I guess we'll see.

[F250 28691]

A large portion of the populace is obese and most of the rest are soft as fuck. Ain’t nobody going to step outside of their air conditioning to join a fucking Civil War. Comfortable people don't leave their comfort and out of shape people are pretty much useless.

The hungry poor, they don't live in comfort and are pretty hard but they just grind out life while being ignored by the rest of society. Poor people don't give a fuck about politics or civil wars. Talk of civil war usually comes from the people least likely to engage in actual the hardship of war.

 

 

[elfenix 34171]

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I know these are unusual times, but I've never seen price increases like this in my lifetime and it scared me. 

keep in mind there was a short deflation period in there.  over the last two years (june 19 - may 21) CPI has gone up at a 2.4078% rate. 

 

edit: graph from another thread

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by elfenix

[Neonmoon 38127]

38 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Agree 100%.  I know these are unusual times, but I've never seen price increases like this in my lifetime and it scared me.  What scared me even more was that the experts, govt. officials and media acknowledged it, but said it's temporary. Seemed like whistling past the graveyard. We've had price increases, but other drivers of inflation, like massive influxes of cash into the economy from the federal government, are also present.  It sure felt like we overdid it with the stimmies when maybe we didn't need to.  Or didn't target the money to the right places.  I guess we'll see.

It feels like it, because there are some people screaming it is too much for political reasons/financial reasons. These same people screamed too much after the Great Recession, and because the stimulus was too small, the economic recovery lagged for a couple years and really didn’t fully recover until 2015. The Fed is trying to avoid that mistake again. The people who scream too much most likely are doing do because spending is bad for billionaires (or most people are too stupid to understand it, so just say Biden and inflation loud because politics). I’m sure there are a small minority of economists still warped by inflation of the 70s, but there are greater controls now them back then. 

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It feels like it, because there are some people screaming it is too much for political reasons/financial reasons. These same people screamed too much after the Great Recession, and because the stimulus was too small, the economic recovery lagged for a couple years and really didn’t fully recover until 2015. The Fed is trying to avoid that mistake again. The people who scream too much most likely are doing do because spending is bad for billionaires (or most people are too stupid to understand it, so just say Biden and inflation loud because politics). I’m sure there are a small minority of economists still warped by inflation of the 70s, but there are greater controls now them back then. 

I saw the govt. send out trillions of dollars in stimulus money and then saw inflation because there were too many dollars chasing too few goods and services.  I didn't think maybe we overdid the stimulus because of people screaming.  Don't get me wrong - I was in favor of the stimulus.  Still am, though I think there are a lot of people who got it and didn't need it and a lot of people who needed it and didn't get it or get enough.  There is a limit to govt. spending. Fiscal deficits can have negative consequences. That's not a political statement.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This is incorrect.  The donors would NOT be fine with losing it all, and they aren't fine with it now.

What this scenario depends on is the donor/puppetmaster class losing control of the monster they have created.  I think that's already happened.  The monster is loose, and even worse, the fucking misjudging power-hungry idiots are continuing to feed the beast.  When it destroys the whole city, including their block, it will be their recklessness that is behind it all.

I don't think the monster is loose.  It's certainly being used (and abused), but it's not loose.  Mitch and McCarthy still control the GOP in Congress.  You'll note that while some Republicans in Congress are trying to downplay the January 6th "tourists", Boebert is not handcuffing herself to the Speaker's podium until there is more voting on the certification or whatever the fuck she learned in her lifelong path to obtain a GED.  Boebert and MTG don't act like people that believe the election was stolen, else they'd be engaging in fisticuffs with their Democratic colleagues.

And sure, there are nuts like MTG and Boebert, but the majority of Republicans in Congress don't see the qanon and MAGA idiots as their clients, they see AT&T, Chevron, Toyota, Warner Brothers, Boeing, and every other large corporation and anybody worth more than 7 figures as their clients, and they are going to protect their clients.  Those Republicans are concerned about winning their next reelection bid, because they can't keep their clients happy if they are out of office.

I'm not concerned about Republicans in Congress starting a third civil war.  I'm concerned about somebody doing what I outlined earlier - some Democrat unseats Mackenzie Kelly as Governor of Texas in 2030 or 2034, and a militia group moves to take down the power grid and try and immobilize most of the state, in the hopes that  a bunch of their compatriots rise up.  

That's the key about those militias - they think they can all be the spark to cause not a third civil war, but another American Revolution (tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of patriots and all that crap).  They think people just need to see that they are willing to sacrifice everything. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89449]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There is also an ever accelerating shift of true massive and responsible business interests to one party as the other party radicalizes and as culture war battle lines harden and you want to be on one side. Who are the big players to the GOP cause? Payday lenders. Casino moguls. Eccentric slingers of made for tv products and craft supplies. MLM magnates. And extractive industries.

 The rest are, if not outright lining up with the Dems, are barely pretending to be neutral. And that removes some important brakes.

Those groups that you mention as big players for the GOP would lose every bit of their wealth in an actual civil war.  Everything.  

[atomheartbevo 89449]

54 minutes ago, F250 said:

A large portion of the populace is obese and most of the rest are soft as fuck. Ain’t nobody going to step outside of their air conditioning to join a fucking Civil War. Comfortable people don't leave their comfort and out of shape people are pretty much useless.

The hungry poor, they don't live in comfort and are pretty hard but they just grind out life while being ignored by the rest of society. Poor people don't give a fuck about politics or civil wars. Talk of civil war usually comes from the people least likely to engage in actual the hardship of war.

Granny ain't getting her insulin in a civil war.  Paw Paw ain't getting his heart medication.  Can't charge a Rascal scooter with a dead power grid and no gas for the generator.

And I'd actually argue the poor would suffer worse in a third civil war - they already eat shit food because that's what a lot of them have access to.  Now try no food with them and see how that goes.  They don't have some fancy estate or a nice big home with plenty of yard space for gardens and the like, and they don't have the means to go elsewhere if they see that shit is starting to hit the fan.

[Brisketexan 104628]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Granny ain't getting her insulin in a civil war.  Paw Paw ain't getting his heart medication.  Can't charge a Rascal scooter with a dead power grid and no gas for the generator.

And I'd actually argue the poor would suffer worse in a third civil war - they already eat shit food because that's what a lot of them have access to.  Now try no food with them and see how that goes.  They don't have some fancy estate or a nice big home with plenty of yard space for gardens and the like, and they don't have the means to go elsewhere if they see that shit is starting to hit the fan.

What you consistently fail to grasp is that the doctrine of "empowered stupidity" dictates that these people will support wildly -- even with deadly force -- policies that are devastatingly harmful to them.  They will toss a grenade into the very room they themselves occupy, because they are THAT FUCKING STUPID.  They are thinking with a visceral, reptilian component of their brain, and focus SOLELY on the suffering they can inflict on others, and don't think about how shitty it will also end up for them.

That's the point, and the problem.  If we were dealing with rational actors, I wouldn't even know where the ledge is, much less have set up a full recliner-TV setup on it.  But we're not.  We're dealing with a giant blob of utterly irrational actors, who will not only do the stupid, self-destructive thing, but they'll issue gleeful rebel yells while they do it.

In a Civil War II, the very people who support it and help bring it about will absolutely be those who suffer the most.  Because this stupid timeline.

[wildcat09 29258]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This is incorrect.  The donors would NOT be fine with losing it all, and they aren't fine with it now.

What this scenario depends on is the donor/puppetmaster class losing control of the monster they have created.  I think that's already happened.  The monster is loose, and even worse, the fucking misjudging power-hungry idiots are continuing to feed the beast.  When it destroys the whole city, including their block, it will be their recklessness that is behind it all.

 

Well, some of the donor class would be ok with it because they're true believers. They also think their position in the new society will be intact and even if they have less in total they'll have a bigger share of a smaller pie, which is what they really want anyway. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

37 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I saw the govt. send out trillions of dollars in stimulus money and then saw inflation because there were too many dollars chasing too few goods and services.  I didn't think maybe we overdid the stimulus because of people screaming.  Don't get me wrong - I was in favor of the stimulus.  Still am, though I think there are a lot of people who got it and didn't need it and a lot of people who needed it and didn't get it or get enough.  There is a limit to govt. spending. Fiscal deficits can have negative consequences. That's not a political statement.

I agree with you, definitely about the wrong people getting the money, but there is no need for panic when none of the data backs it up. The pandemic changed the economy in many ways. It’s going to be a bit janky at first. There is supply bottleneck. Hundreds of thousands of workers died. A couple million chose to retire early. Many realized their job/life sucks and changed careers. 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

What you consistently fail to grasp is that the doctrine of "empowered stupidity" dictates that these people will support wildly -- even with deadly force -- policies that are devastatingly harmful to them.  They will toss a grenade into the very room they themselves occupy, because they are THAT FUCKING STUPID.  They are thinking with a visceral, reptilian component of their brain, and focus SOLELY on the suffering they can inflict on others, and don't think about how shitty it will also end up for them.

That's the point, and the problem.  If we were dealing with rational actors, I wouldn't even know where the ledge is, much less have set up a full recliner-TV setup on it.  But we're not.  We're dealing with a giant blob of utterly irrational actors, who will not only do the stupid, self-destructive thing, but they'll issue gleeful rebel yells while they do it.

In a Civil War II, the very people who support it and help bring it about will absolutely be those who suffer the most.  Because this stupid timeline.

If those people were truly up for it, they should have shown up on January 6th.  I'm not talking about the real estate agents, the lawyers, the qanon idiots.  I'm talking about the rank-and-file idiots. Far more people protested (and rioted) over George Floyd being killed by a cop than Donald Trump having the election stolen from him.

Look, the very people we are talking about potentially fighting a civil war lost their shit because they couldn't get a hair cut or eat at Chili's last year.  They simply aren't prepared to go without insulin or Walmart being open or whatever.

[gmr548 16517]

The biggest thing that doesn’t get lasts mentioned here is external to the United States. In almost all modern civil wars, one or the other side or both has backing from global or regional powers to keep some level of money/fighters/equipment flowing. And, when things get really bad, even bigger powers step in to try and moderate civilian losses and atrocities— and in doing so, prevent a decisive victory by the superior side (Yugoslavia, Syria). 
 
There are no nations currently in a position to play that role vis a vis the United States and its nuclear arsenal. The fracture of the Soviet Union (chaotic regional independence and localized— but heavy— violence) might be a good place to begin. 

Yeah, the breakup of the USSR and eastern bloc is probably a better analogue. Lots of economic pain due to general instability, but relatively light on armed conflict given the magnitude of the situation.

[Brisketexan 104628]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

If those people were truly up for it, they should have shown up on January 6th.  I'm not talking about the real estate agents, the lawyers, the qanon idiots.  I'm talking about the rank-and-file idiots. Far more people protested (and rioted) over George Floyd being killed by a cop than Donald Trump having the election stolen from him.

Look, the very people we are talking about potentially fighting a civil war lost their shit because they couldn't get a hair cut or eat at Chili's last year.  They simply aren't prepared to go without insulin or Walmart being open or whatever.

Numbers aren't what matter.  What they are willing to do does.

1 million people can march in protest of George Floyd.....but if only 100 of them are looking to burn down a police station, then the problem is exactly 100 people big.  AND, it's isolated to a single police station.

10,000 can march in support of a fascist dictator, but if 3,000 of them are willing to murder Congresscritters, then the problem is 3,000 people, inside the Capitol, big.  And it's got nationwide impact.

Nobody is saying that insane Trumpkin fascists are the majority.  Hell, in every dead cancer patient, "cancer" isn't the majority of the body tissue.  But it was damned well enough to kill them.  A few thousand -- even a few hundred -- people ready to do the right thing at the right time can overthrow a government.  And if they have collaborators within law enforcement and/or the military?  Our odds just got a whole lot worse.

[tx 3 putt 76401]

Any ‘attempted’ uprising / civil war / govt overthrow attempt would be handled with extreme prejudice. 
 

now if say a Donald Trump 2.0 (much smarter version) comes along and can over take internally, we are fucked. Civil War 2.0 would occur but don’t see the majority of states playing along 

[Neonmoon 38127]

They are doing it the old fashioned way. Get enough cult members elected and then legislate away Democracy. 

[Goredho 17349]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think the monster is loose.  It's certainly being used (and abused), but it's not loose.  Mitch and McCarthy still control the GOP in Congress.  You'll note that while some Republicans in Congress are trying to downplay the January 6th "tourists", Boebert is not handcuffing herself to the Speaker's podium until there is more voting on the certification or whatever the fuck she learned in her lifelong path to obtain a GED.  Boebert and MTG don't act like people that believe the election was stolen, else they'd be engaging in fisticuffs with their Democratic colleagues.

And sure, there are nuts like MTG and Boebert, but the majority of Republicans in Congress don't see the qanon and MAGA idiots as their clients, they see AT&T, Chevron, Toyota, Warner Brothers, Boeing, and every other large corporation and anybody worth more than 7 figures as their clients, and they are going to protect their clients.  Those Republicans are concerned about winning their next reelection bid, because they can't keep their clients happy if they are out of office.

I'm not concerned about Republicans in Congress starting a third civil war.  I'm concerned about somebody doing what I outlined earlier - some Democrat unseats Mackenzie Kelly as Governor of Texas in 2030 or 2034, and a militia group moves to take down the power grid and try and immobilize most of the state, in the hopes that  a bunch of their compatriots rise up.  

That's the key about those militias - they think they can all be the spark to cause not a third civil war, but another American Revolution (tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of patriots and all that crap).  They think people just need to see that they are willing to sacrifice everything. 

I think America today has a “conservative street” much like Muslim countries in the Middle East have been described as having an “Arab street”.  And I know there are negative connotations to that term, but I think it absolutely applies here.  There’s a populist mob that has had its anger stoked who must be taken into account by those that would appeal to them.

Conservative leaders don’t want a revolution, they just want to manipulate the conservative street to get them angry enough to vote in droves.  November 3rd shows they can achieve the latter, but January 6th shows that the their ability to achieve the former is dubious at best.

But when we’ve elected a black President and white folk are on the eve of being a voting minority in this country, what other options do you have?

[staboner 4959]

29 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Any ‘attempted’ uprising / civil war / govt overthrow attempt would be handled with extreme prejudice. 
 

now if say a Donald Trump 2.0 (much smarter version) comes along and can over take internally, we are fucked. Civil War 2.0 would occur but don’t see the majority of states playing along 

jan 6th would like a word with you

[F250 28691]

How do these civil war scenarios play out regarding the U.S military?

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

20 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

i put beans in my taco meat !

Hell yeah, mix in some refrieds just like JitB does it.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

13 minutes ago, F250 said:

How do these civil war scenarios play out regarding the U.S military?

 

I think we saw it with Milley and Mattis. 

Did Mattis ever holler at Trump the way Milley did when Trump wanted him to participate in the Insurrection Act bidness?

I got told back when Mad Dog left that it's not in a Marine to talk about the command. I didn't understand they said. Ok, fine. He can't talk about it. I'd still like to know how Smedley would have handled it. 

Y'all want to know who are the war participants? It's pretty fucking simple. Go check out the thread on 1/6 and those caught. It's a wide demo but not very deep. I'll take the kids in Portland in a street fight against a Hillwood pilot, real estate agents, and the Qanon Shaman. The one chick with the balls to break through a secure door got shot. 

The decision to leave the handful of cops with no back up was political. The call for backup was denied. 

Those stupid mfers thought they could somehow force Pence into fixing all this bad dream. Or kill him too. Steal the boxes! Stop the steal!

Y'all they really aren't that bright.

MTG and The Buttercream Dream are in the same district. I think you know where I am putting my money in that fight.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

6 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Y'all they really aren't that bright.

MTG and The Buttercream Dream are in the same district. I think you know where I am putting my money in that fight

Well said. 

[Buzzrock 14871]

956's scenario is almost certainly NOT what will happen.  Not because it is particularly unlikely, but rather because there are 100,000 alternate scenarios that look a lot like it, but differ in some crucial aspect or another.  But that TYPE of scenario is absolutely what the risk is here.
Is it the MOST LIKELY outcome?  No.  Is the risk of it happening unacceptably high?  Yep.

I’m very disappointed. It took you 47 posts to respond to a brightly lit Brisket Signal, and it wasn’t end-of-times depressing.

Fuck the off season.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

My scenario envisions the backwoods kind of seceding from the cities, where you have Trumpsters and cops collaborating as paramilitaries, like you had with the Proddies in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. (Albeit there that was often with the tacit backing of London; that would almost certainly not be the case here).

So you'd have these Trumpistan "Tribal Areas" between all the cities in the Texas Triangle that city folk entered at their peril...And maybe they set off some IEDs or attack bridges or rail hubs. Just low-intensity dystopian suckage until we collapse, like a bull sucked dry by fleas, ticks and skeeters. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by MaybeACoordinator

[Brisketexan 104628]

I’m very disappointed. It took you 47 posts to respond to a brightly lit Brisket Signal, and it wasn’t end-of-times depressing.

Fuck the off season.

I mean, I think in all the chaos, your dog will die, your wife will leave you, and your dick will cease to function.

Is that more what you expected?

[Degenerate Gardner 4081]

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Hell yeah, mix in some refrieds just like JitB does it.

Pretty sure their secret recipe features nutria. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Degenerate Gardner

[cactusflinthead 27594]

29 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

My scenario envisions the backwoods kind of seceding from the cities, where you have Trumpsters and cops collaborating as paramilitaries, like you had with the Proddies in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. (Albeit there that was often with the tacit backing of London; that would almost certainly not be the case here).

So you'd have these Trumpistan "Tribal Areas" between all the cities in the Texas Triangle that city folk entered at their peril...And maybe they set off some IEDs or attack bridges or rail hubs. Just low-intensity dystopian suckage until we collapse, like a bull sucked dry by fleas, ticks and skeeters. 

Dickey already wrote that novel. 

There's a reason why we say stuff about having to pump sunshine into the boonies. Cut off supplies to Franklin or Vidor and it ceases to exist. Rudolf can survive in the woods, a community cannot

[Born to Run 6568]

There is also an ever accelerating shift of true massive and responsible business interests to one party as the other party radicalizes and as culture war battle lines harden and you want to be on one side. Who are the big players to the GOP cause? Payday lenders. Casino moguls. Eccentric slingers of made for tv products and craft supplies. MLM magnates. And extractive industries.
 
 The rest are, if not outright lining up with the Dems, are barely pretending to be neutral. And that removes some important brakes.

Right, because the corporate masters know it's best to give the plebs a few crumbs versus all out revolution.
They won't do it a second before they have too, but they will cave in the end.
Just enough to keep us happy enough. Internet, drugs, booze and tv are relatively cheap numbing agents to the insane imbalance of wealth.

[Gatorubet 30116]

I agree with you, Hundreds of thousands of workers died. A couple million chose to retire early. Many realized their job/life sucks and changed careers. 

So - which is better for social security? Shit ton of folks retiring now and sucking out more benefits than expected short term - but a shit ton of folks taking money now locks in much lower lifetime payments?

Sucks for early retiring olds long term, but is the fiscal bottom line for the system helped or hurt by this?

[Born to Run 6568]

Those groups that you mention as big players for the GOP would lose every bit of their wealth in an actual civil war.  Everything.  

Can someone smarter than me start a thread on financial planning around all this shit?

I'm hoping to buy property abroad, in several locations with some homies as a start...

[atomheartbevo 89449]

1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

Can someone smarter than me start a thread on financial planning around all this shit?

I'm hoping to buy property abroad, in several locations with some homies as a start...

Assume you lose electricity and internet.  What wealth do you actually have on hand at that point?  Nobody can buy your home, paper money might be worthless if the government is fucked.

So ideally another country close by, and another country farther away as a contingency if things are really bad.  Some place in Canada, Costa Rica, and Australia.

If you're going to get a place in Belize, don't have your neighbor murdered.

[Born to Run 6568]

Assume you lose electricity and internet.  What wealth do you actually have on hand at that point?  Nobody can buy your home, paper money might be worthless if the government is fucked.
So ideally another country close by, and another country farther away as a contingency if things are really bad.  Some place in Canada, Costa Rica, and Australia.
If you're going to get a place in Belize, don't have your neighbor murdered.

Current plan is Costa Rica, Portugal and maybe Wisconsin (water and weather). Beyond that I dont know.
Costa with a few acres, a garden, chickens and an orchard with modest accomdations


ODB is my main financial planner

[atomheartbevo 89449]

1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

Current plan is Costa Rica, Portugal and maybe Wisconsin (water and weather). Beyond that I dont know.
ODB is my main financial planner

This is your financial planner?

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is your financial planner?

Diversify your bonds bitch

[Born to Run 6568]

Flip side to all this doom and gloom. One of my mentors growing up was a lawyer in Houston. Going back to the 70s he had all kinds of crazy prepper plans - guns buried on properties all over, houses with bomb shelters, safe rooms, food buckets. Hundreds of guns. Truck loads of ammo. As he aged it got crazier, more outlandish and fictional. Right before he croaked he had plans that were unfeasable with his fitness level. Hell if CVS was shut down for a week he would have died from lack of meds.

My take away from him was, if your going to prep, but booze. If shit went down I could have traded whiskey for whatever I wanted in about a week.

He spent his entire life worrying about shit that didn't happen. And spent a lot of his time and treasure prepping for nothing. Black dudes never did overrun his fortress.

[Born to Run 6568]

This is your financial planner?

I gotta diversify my bonds...