Nightmare Civil War 2.0 Scenarios

[Born to Run 6568]

Diversify your bonds bitch

Dammit

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 hours ago, F250 said:

How do these civil war scenarios play out regarding the U.S military?

I said it earlier - they will be looking out for their own shit.   These will probably be their biggest issues:

1. Keeping food, fuel, electricity, communications flowing.  Our military contracts the hell out of a lot of food service, fuel, etc. so if shit hits the fan here, those companies won't be running food and fuel into the bases.  Places like Fort Hood might have to start running heavily armed convoys to the coast or wherever to pick up fuel and food from the Navy, etc.
2. Protecting and providing for VIPs and their families.  This should probably be bumped up to #1 as that is what the feds will see as the military's #1 job, but it's going to suck up a lot of resources.
3. Keeping other countries from fucking around with us.  We would have to make some hard decisions about some allies and probably bring most of our folks home. We maybe able to temporarily mothball some ships and aircraft, but we will still have to guard those ships and aircraft.  We would still have to keep some ships out at sea.  We'd still have to keep our radars going and keep some communications capability going.
4. The Navy and the Air Force would have to do a lot of heavy lifting on keeping all branches supplied in some manner, from taking supplies from the areas or allies that are "normal" and can provide some fuel and food, to getting those supplies to the areas that went Mad Max.
5. Securing our bases. Way too many civilians are going to flock to military bases looking for safety/security, food, water, etc.  Way too many.  

People have this misguided notion the military is going to be rolling through downtown Houston or Dallas and setting up checkpoints everywhere, and that's not going to happen, because the civilians are going to come to the bases, creating problems there, and  the military is going to have to guard their own shit, and they are going to probably have to be running heavily armed convoys to get supplies.

I expect you will see some base consolidations to try and condense supply lines and reduce the areas that need to be guarded, They'll probably try and bring home everybody from overseas.  They may even pull what they can out of the Mad Max areas.

For reference, and these are the latest numbers I could find (from 2010), but Fort Hood, the biggest post here in Texas, has nearly 50,000 active-duty enlisted soldiers, and another 5,000 active-duty officers.  They have another 53,000 dependents.  There's only 18,000 soldiers and dependents who live on post, with the other 90,000 living off post.

Fort Hood also has another 90,000 retirees and families, and surviving dependents (families of killed soldiers who are living near the base) and soldiers that are badly wounded and maybe rely on the base for whatever (including medically discharged).  Arguably, those 90,000 might be cut loose to fend for themselves, but those 90,000 active-duty soldiers and their dependents that are off base are going to have to be brought on base and taken care of.

Imagine what it would be like to keep a large post like Fort Hood going, with 108,000 people.  They aren't going to be driving around Texas patrolling major cities.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

Flip side to all this doom and gloom. One of my mentors growing up was a lawyer in Houston. Going back to the 70s he had all kinds of crazy prepper plans - guns buried on properties all over, houses with bomb shelters, safe rooms, food buckets. Hundreds of guns. Truck loads of ammo. As he aged it got crazier, more outlandish and fictional. Right before he croaked he had plans that were unfeasable with his fitness level. Hell if CVS was shut down for a week he would have died from lack of meds.

My take away from him was, if your going to prep, but booze. If shit went down I could have traded whiskey for whatever I wanted in about a week.

He spent his entire life worrying about shit that didn't happen. And spent a lot of his time and treasure prepping for nothing. Black dudes never did overrun his fortress.

Man, in the 80s, the paranoia was nuts.  You couldn't go in a decent bookstore without seeing a large section of survivalist type magazines and books.  I loved the Survivalist books from Jerry Ahern - he really had a lot of good info on firearms in them (and I just looked at his bio, and he was a pretty prolific contributor to various gun magazines and was considered an actual expert).  Then there was the Doomsday Warrior and Wingman books, which were war porn mixed with a lot of weird sex (harems, female Russian agents, Nazis, etc.) targeted at teenaged males.

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Man, in the 80s, the paranoia was nuts.  You couldn't go in a decent bookstore without seeing a large section of survivalist type magazines and books.  I loved the Survivalist books from Jerry Ahern - he really had a lot of good info on firearms in them (and I just looked at his bio, and he was a pretty prolific contributor to various gun magazines and was considered an actual expert).  Then there was the Doomsday Warrior and Wingman books, which were war porn mixed with a lot of weird sex (harems, female Russian agents, Nazis, etc.) targeted at teenaged males.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

@Brisketexan I found you a video game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shattered_Union

Quote

In 2008, David Jefferson Adams becomes the 44th President of the United States following a disputed election and a tie vote in the Electoral College (and subsequent tie-breaker by the United States House of Representatives), becoming the most hated and unpopular president in U.S. history. 

A combination of foreign terrorist attacks and poor economic conditions contributes to civil unrest. As a result, rioting springs up all throughout the United States, resulting in domestic terrorism. In response, President Adams uses the Homeland Security Act and declares martial law on many areas of the country, but it is particularly concentrated on the West Coast.

Four years later, during the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election, the Supreme Court of the United States disqualifies all the popular presidential candidates from several states, effectively handing Adams his reelection. The public reacts violently when incumbent Adams accepts a second term.

During the Inauguration Ball in Washington, D.C. on the night of January 20, 2013, a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon is detonated in an apparent groundburst, presumably having been concealed there in advance. The yield is sufficient to destroy most of the city, killing Adams, his cabinet, and most of the U.S. Congress, effectively wiping out the presidential line of succession and thrusting the United States into total chaos.

The European Union Parliament meets in an emergency session, and votes to send peacekeepers to the Washington Metropolitan Area to secure international interests and protection of European citizens in the United States.

Quote

As secessionist sentiment rises in America, the governor of California declares home rule, and California secedes from the Union on April 15, 2013. Texas follows a few days later, on April 17, 2013, taking neighboring states with it and re-forming the Republic of Texas. Other factions form in the following months, and by 2014, all hopes for a peaceful resolution are gone, and the Second American Civil War begins.

Early in the war, Russia invades and occupies Alaska, using the expanded operations of the European Union as an excuse. The invasion is personally led by President Nicholai Vladekov, an ex-general and former Soviet hardliner, who claims that Alaska was never really part of the United States and that Russia is merely reclaiming its former territory. What little resistance does occur is confused and disorganized, making the invasion largely unopposed.

Later, Interpol reveals the results of its investigation regarding the Inauguration Day bombing. President Vladekov had been dealing weapons on the black market for more than thirty years and masterminded the D.C. bombing as part of his goal to disrupt the world economy so that Russia could regain its military dominance, and more easily control Europe. Protests throughout Russia force Vladekov to declare martial law in Moscow.

After the former contiguous United States is unified under one faction, the independent Commonwealth of Hawaii agrees to join the new government. Vladekov refuses to cede control of Alaska, so the faction's forces prepare to invade the state and drive the Russians out of North America. A closing cinematic depicts the aftermath of the war.

If the invasion fails, the reunified U.S. is still suffering unrest and faces an uncertain future. If the invasion succeeds and the player faction's reputation is very good, the troubled American states are "united again under uncommon greatness" – a leader whose merciful acts and strategic and tactical brilliance will be spoken of for centuries to come. If the player faction's reputation is very bad, the U.S. transforms into a new fascist state, "one that will never again feel the sting of dissent".

 

The factions in the game include the entirety or portions of the following states:

• California Commonwealth: Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah
• Commonwealth of Hawaii: Hawaii (non-playable faction)
• Confederacy: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee,  Virginia
• European Union Occupation: Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia
• Great Plains Federation: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,  Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin
• New England Alliance: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Vermont
• Pacifica: Colorado, Idaho,  Montana, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming
• Republic of Texas: Arkansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
• Russia: Alaska (only multiplayer)

 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

10 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, the breakup of the USSR and eastern bloc is probably a better analogue. Lots of economic pain due to general instability, but relatively light on armed conflict given the magnitude of the situation.

We like to think of the USSR split up as light on armed conflict, but that is because of how awful it could have gone wrong. BUT-- the crack-up of the Soviet Union was accompanied by some pretty serious fighting, just in places that don't get much attention.  The Armenians and Azeris went at it hammer and tongs with thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands in population exchanges. Tajikistan descended into all out civil war for years, which almost no one west of the Urals has heard of.  The first and second Chechen Wars did not get near enough play in the West, we have heard of them-- but few people realize that they involved armored columns, tens of thousands of regular Russian troops, and aerial and artillery destroying cities. 

And the thing is-- ten years earlier the Soviet Union was considered a permanent feature, in fact a pillar of the geopolitical landscape. 

An event like that in the United States would be the same but different. "All happy families are the same, all unhappy families are unhappy in their own way..."

[Neonmoon 38127]

9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

So - which is better for social security? Shit ton of folks retiring now and sucking out more benefits than expected short term - but a shit ton of folks taking money now locks in much lower lifetime payments?

Sucks for early retiring olds long term, but is the fiscal bottom line for the system helped or hurt by this?

Probably helped with lower payments and hope they don’t live that long. Of course life expectancy keeps getting better so doubt it. SS has a huge surplus right now of 2.9 trillion, but with the baby boomers, they will double the amount of people on SS. We have about 14 years to increase the payroll tax or raise the retirement age 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We like to think of the USSR split up as light on armed conflict, but that is because of how awful it could have gone wrong. BUT-- the crack-up of the Soviet Union was accompanied by some pretty serious fighting, just in places that don't get much attention.  The Armenians and Azeris went at it hammer and tongs with thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands in population exchanges. Tajikistan descended into all out civil war for years, which almost no one west of the Urals has heard of.  The first and second Chechen Wars did not get near enough play in the West, we have heard of them-- but few people realize that they involved armored columns, tens of thousands of regular Russian troops, and aerial and artillery destroying cities. 

And the thing is-- ten years earlier the Soviet Union was considered a permanent feature, in fact a pillar of the geopolitical landscape. 

An event like that in the United States would be the same but different. "All happy families are the same, all unhappy families are unhappy in their own way..."

I don't know if we should have considered them a permanent country or whatever, because your points about how violent things got show that all of that tension was just bubbling under the surface.

The Soviet Union was created as a country by force.  Royals were executed, WWI left them in poor shape, there was a famine that killed 5 million, and various republicans that formed the Soviet Union were divided up and incorporated against their will, the Baltic states in particular.  Not a good way to form a long-lasting country.

 

 

[Gatorubet 30115]

nm. thread hijack

[Hookah Horns 3082]

I'm pretty confident it'll be an insurgency by the rest of us after the Rs steal the white house and/or the next R POTUS refuses to leave office. 

We'll burn this motherfucker to the ground before we live under the fascist jackboot.

[Brisketexan 104628]

19 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Brisketexan I found you a video game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shattered_Union

The factions in the game include the entirety or portions of the following states:

• California Commonwealth: Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah
• Commonwealth of Hawaii: Hawaii (non-playable faction)
• Confederacy: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee,  Virginia
• European Union Occupation: Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia
• Great Plains Federation: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,  Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin
• New England Alliance: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Vermont
• Pacifica: Colorado, Idaho,  Montana, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming
• Republic of Texas: Arkansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
• Russia: Alaska (only multiplayer)

 

Naah.  I'll just watch it all unfold on TV when it happens.  Preferably on my TV in another country.  But it may be here.  So, you know.....gonna keep ammo on hand, too.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Of course life expectancy keeps getting better so doubt it.

This is no longer true as life expectancy in the US has started to decline slightly over the last three or so years.

[washparkhorn 9935]

It's the start of the 4th of July holiday. Go dream about what America is and can be. Chart a path to get there.

I am going to find a cozy spot in the mountains an look down on one edge of the Great Plains. Flip the dominate perspective when in Denver (mountain view oriented). And watch the fireworks from the beauty above.  

[Buzzrock 14871]

I mean, I think in all the chaos, your dog will die, your wife will leave you, and your dick will cease to function.

Is that more what you expected?

Yes. Although I’m not sure the wife part fits the theme. That’s gonna suck about my dog and my dick though.

[Brisketexan 104628]

15 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

It's the start of the 4th of July holiday. Go dream about what America is and can be. Chart a path to get there.

I am going to find a cozy spot in the mountains an look down on one edge of the Great Plains. Flip the dominate perspective when in Denver (mountain view oriented). And watch the fireworks from the beauty above.  

I will tell you this.  Last night at the Austin FC game, we got the national anthem.  We got some fireworks (because it's the game before the 4th).  We got the flag waving outside the stadium.

And it really came home to me -- I don't know why then, but it did.....that's my flag.  This is MY country.  I've spent a long damned time seeing yahoos waving MY flag and (correctly, but incompletely) equating that display of "love of country" with brainless, fascist, "patriotic" bullshittery.  And while the flag HAS been coopted for that.....it's only as coopted as I let it be.

It's also a flag for those of us who live and believe in a nation that can and will improve.  That can and will be a force for becoming better.  

The more liberal protestant denominations use a term I like to describe the reformed church: "reformed and always reforming."  @Bozo_Casanova has a great answer to the question of "are you a Christian?"  "No....but I'm trying to be."  Is America great?   Maybe not, but we're trying to be.  My vision is to make the "we're trying to be" true.  That isn't much.  But it's everything.

[Bozo_Casanova 26284]

10 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I will tell you this.  Last night at the Austin FC game, we got the national anthem.  We got some fireworks (because it's the game before the 4th).  We got the flag waving outside the stadium.

And it really came home to me -- I don't know why then, but it did.....that's my flag.  This is MY country.  I've spent a long damned time seeing yahoos waving MY flag and (correctly, but incompletely) equating that display of "love of country" with brainless, fascist, "patriotic" bullshittery.  And while the flag HAS been coopted for that.....it's only as coopted as I let it be.

It's also a flag for those of us who live and believe in a nation that can and will improve.  That can and will be a force for becoming better.  

The more liberal protestant denominations use a term I like to describe the reformed church: "reformed and always reforming."  @Bozo_Casanova has a great answer to the question of "are you a Christian?"  "No....but I'm trying to be."  Is America great?   Maybe not, but we're trying to be.  My vision is to make the "we're trying to be" true.  That isn't much.  But it's everything.

Funny you should say that. For me it was the national anthem on Sunday- pride night- when Gina Chavez sang it. That song belongs to her. It belongs to us. It’s ours, all of ours. The gays and the straights and the whites and the browns and men and women and the non-binaries and even like mimes and furries. And it’s beautiful. And that’s the America I put my faith in. And I think we are winning.

Edited July 3, 2021 by Bozo_Casanova

[Brisketexan 104628]

Funny you should say that. For me it was the national anthem on Sunday- pride night- when Gina Chavez sang it. That song belongs to her. It belongs to us. It’s ours, all of ours. The gays and the straights and the whites and the browns and men and women and the non-binaries and even like mimes and furries. And it’s beautiful. 

She was awesome. Yeah, there were some goose bumps then. And the diverse crowd was part of it to me. To look down at the SS, and see slogan after slogan in Spanish, mixed with English, and to know that ALL of it is ours, and is American, and belongs under our flag. It does belong to all of us. And we shouldn’t be shy about it.

[Hookah Horns 3082]

On 7/2/2021 at 10:24 AM, Brisketexan said:

I will tell you this.  Last night at the Austin FC game, we got the national anthem.  We got some fireworks (because it's the game before the 4th).  We got the flag waving outside the stadium.

And it really came home to me -- I don't know why then, but it did.....that's my flag.  This is MY country.  I've spent a long damned time seeing yahoos waving MY flag and (correctly, but incompletely) equating that display of "love of country" with brainless, fascist, "patriotic" bullshittery.  And while the flag HAS been coopted for that.....it's only as coopted as I let it be.

It's also a flag for those of us who live and believe in a nation that can and will improve.  That can and will be a force for becoming better.  

The more liberal protestant denominations use a term I like to describe the reformed church: "reformed and always reforming."  @Bozo_Casanova has a great answer to the question of "are you a Christian?"  "No....but I'm trying to be."  Is America great?   Maybe not, but we're trying to be.  My vision is to make the "we're trying to be" true.  That isn't much.  But it's everything.

Fuckin A it's our flag...and always will be. 

The other side's faux patriots' real flag is the stars and bars.