Nightmare Civil War 2.0 Scenarios

[Fondren & Main 6670]

The majority of the nation will have to get to a point where there is nothing for them to lose in order to make a move.  I don't know how close we are to that point, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 18 months.

[wildcat09 29258]

Civil wars don't typically involve majorities of a country's population.

[Bama Chick 28596]

“Lamenting women”????

Bitch, we’ll be the ones in charge and organizing and running logistics and tactics.

We’re sneaky and clever - we’ll be running the intelligence apparatus too.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

6 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

The majority of the nation will have to get to a point where there is nothing for them to lose in order to make a move.  I don't know how close we are to that point, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 18 months.

Shit man, 1/3 of the nation already has nothing to lose, they are only convinced they have "something to lose" because the TV, talk radio and the internet told them someone was gonna take their non-existent shit.

[hpslugga 4044]

4 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

The majority of the nation will have to get to a point where there is nothing for them to lose in order to make a move.  I don't know how close we are to that point, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 18 months.

Are these things real or imaginary? Because if imaginary things are allowed, we’re in a lot of trouble because those on the right, that are inclined to get into this civil war talk, do not reside in reality. They live in a Fantasy World where Chairman Joe is sending in his socialist army of woke college students all over the red states to confiscate their guns and their bibles in order to more easily impose his radical environmentalist agenda of converting the US into Venezuela. 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

49 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

956's scenario is almost certainly NOT what will happen.  Not because it is particularly unlikely, but rather because there are 100,000 alternate scenarios that look a lot like it, but differ in some crucial aspect or another.  But that TYPE of scenario is absolutely what the risk is here.

Is it the MOST LIKELY outcome?  No.  Is the risk of it happening unacceptably high?  Yep.

My main point here is that rhetoric and posturing comes with a cost. Eventually the postures have to back it up with action and blow past off ramps. Things can deteriorate very quickly once certain norms are broken. One norm was a refusal to admit an election was lost. The norm of actually leaving held, but it didn’t have to. And now that’s the next speed bump, the GOP has already decided that not conceding elections is OK. So just doing that won’t be enough.
 

I also think a state level tinpot wannabe will feel most empowered to shatter more norms. It could be something else— a stand-off over who has the right to patrol the border, for example. An attempt to actually seat false electors. And we run the risk of more radicals seizing governors mansions as rhetoric escalates.

[elfenix 34171]

don't you guys remember al gore refusing to concede the election despite ongoing audits that eventually found that he had, in fact, won?

Edited June 29, 2021 by elfenix

[David Dennison 18660]

29 minutes ago, elfenix said:

don't you guys remember al gore refusing to concede the election despite ongoing audits that eventually found that he had, in fact, won?

We all know which political faction operates in bad faith as a matter of policy.

[wildcat09 29258]

1 hour ago, hpslugga said:

Are these things real or imaginary? Because if imaginary things are allowed, we’re in a lot of trouble because those on the right, that are inclined to get into this civil war talk, do not reside in reality. They live in a Fantasy World where Chairman Joe is sending in his socialist army of woke college students all over the red states to confiscate their guns and their bibles in order to more easily impose his radical environmentalist agenda of converting the US into Venezuela. 

Yup, the country is full of Onboards.

[wildcat09 29258]

33 minutes ago, elfenix said:

don't you guys remember al gore refusing to concede the election despite ongoing audits that eventually found that he had, in fact, won?

It blows my mind to this day that everyone just shrugged off Bush v. Gore.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It blows my mind to this day that everyone just shrugged off Bush v. Gore.

It was the 90s.  We were promised all bush, and no gore!

[Goredho 17349]

6 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Sure you just keep on being the lobster in the pot.

Keep fucking that lobster.

Edited June 29, 2021 by Goredho

[Goredho 17349]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

“Lamenting women”????

Bitch, we’ll be the ones in charge and organizing and running logistics and tactics.

We’re sneaky and clever - we’ll be running the intelligence apparatus too.

Well, we’ll be comforting the logistical tacticians then 😜

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2059]

20 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

It was the 90s. 

 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13546]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

don't you guys remember al gore refusing to concede the election despite ongoing audits that eventually found that he had, in fact, won?

And, despite Trump putting his compulsive projection on public display by claiming any campaign would have gladly accepted Russian campaign assistance, turning over Bush debate prep notes his campaign been anonymously sent over to the FBI?

[Ojo Rojo 1906]

I'm not going to take the time to game out an entire scenario, but I can tell you that massive inflation and the resulting recession or depression will be a big part of it.  Inflation scares me and it's already happening.  Real estate prices skyrocketing to ridiculous levels. Consumer prices for ever good under the sun going up, up , up. "Experts" are saying it's temporary; I say bullshit.  Like everyone is going to just miraculously lower their prices to pre- post-pandemic levels?  Riiiiiiiggghhhttt...

[Paul Wesley 3277]

2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Civil wars don't typically involve majorities of a country's population.

Agreed.  And they look more like years of commando-style raids and terroristic violence.  

There's a podcast called "It could happen here" that lays out some plausible scenarios.  

I would say one (of many) step we could take is to stop using bullshit flags (Blue Lives Matter or the Confederate battle flag) like we saw on January 6.  Do we agree to live in and support an American democracy?  Great, then we can debate policy and decide what we want our country to look like, but that's the only fucking flag anyone needs. 

[elfenix 34171]

32 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I'm not going to take the time to game out an entire scenario, but I can tell you that massive inflation and the resulting recession or depression will be a big part of it.  Inflation scares me and it's already happening.  Real estate prices skyrocketing to ridiculous levels. Consumer prices for ever good under the sun going up, up , up. "Experts" are saying it's temporary; I say bullshit.  Like everyone is going to just miraculously lower their prices to pre- post-pandemic levels?  Riiiiiiiggghhhttt...

when they say it's temporary they mean that after the global economy works through its covid related supply issues that we'll go back to struggling to hit 2% from below.  not that prices will generally backslide. 

[Continental Op 3934]

3 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Bitch, we’ll be the ones in charge and organizing and running logistics and tactics.

I've watched enough groups of  women splitting a check at a restaurant to know this is a load of horseshit.

[Willfully Horn 7916]

My nightmare scenario is that the Constitution and Rule of Law are already all but dead, killed at the behest of the ultra rich, with Rs & Ds larping along the way.

[Francisco 2.0 32342]

3 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Shit man, 1/3 of the nation already has nothing to lose, they are only convinced they have "something to lose" because the TV, talk radio and the internet told them someone was gonna take their non-existent shit.

 

 

 

[staboner 4959]

3 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Yup, the country is full of Onboards.

yeah thats it. they are afraid of 'socalism' even though A) they aren't getting it, and B) they actually fucking need it. its remarkable and that fact tells you all you need to know. america is completely fucked no matter how you slice it. fucking infuriating how bad the general emotional intelligence is in most of the population. 

my 2 cents. you are floating till tech stocks tumble. once that fake element of the economy flips the market will, inflation goes on, and the dollar kind of shits itself slowly. sprinkle any of the following:

- a social media event on film aka the george floyd effect. triggers violence and grows anger further. either side. both sides. all sides. Death Spiral. 

- geopolitical event - russia takes our ukraine, taiwan and china, etc. all the groundwork is laid here. just a matter of when/how. 

- a terrorist attack. god help you peeps if you have an islamic terrorist attack. 

- my money is however on large scale cyber attacks against financial and gov institutions. obviously thats already happening but of course i mean at the scale the crumbles day to day life. 

or really anything. (charlie) the cake is baked (scrong). 

and it fucking pisses me off no end. 

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

I've watched enough groups of  women splitting a check at a restaurant to know this is a load of horseshit.

Splitting a check =/= fucking up some racist misogynistic fascists.

And getting revenge on assholes who’ve been trying to police my body my entire life?

I was born for it.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I've watched enough groups of  women splitting a check at a restaurant to know this is a load of horseshit.

Splitting a check =/= fucking up some racist misogynistic fascists.

And getting revenge on assholes who’ve been trying to police my body my entire life?

I was born for it.

[Jhawkmvp 1489]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

That's some first class laziness.  That's getting around to finally using condoms after your girlfriend has been pregnant for months.  

Well, you don't want to cum on your baby. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Well, you don't want to cum on your baby. 

Oh my god, this just made me laugh so hard lol

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

If we are lucky, the Delta Variant will take out most of the QAnon/Trumpers.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

Tapa has the Delta Variant.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

24 minutes ago, Jhawkmvp said:

Well, you don't want to cum on your baby. 

[atomheartbevo 89449]

6 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Civil wars don't typically involve majorities of a country's population.

It's even harder in the US here in 2021.  We are far more spread out than we were in the Civil War, and we are far more mixed in - it's not as easy to separate things geographically.  Attacking the librools in Georgia is going to fuck over the conservatives, etc.

My "regional" scenario starts out something like this:

2030, Democrat wins the Governor's seat here in Texas.  Mackenzie Kelly stirs up a lot of shit but ultimately leaves the Governor’s mansion, after reassurances from Vice President Stefanik and Texas Senators West and Gohmert that she'll be taken care of.

A few weeks, maybe a month later, a “normal” winter storm hits, and a group of militia types who somehow evade having federal informants in their ranks act.  They have been planning this for years, and work to take down power transmission lines and facilities around the state, and do it in such a way that it’s much harder to recover.  The 2021 storm gave them a lot of ideas, and an ineffectual legislature means that they succeed in completely taking down the grid, which means weeks, but more likely months before the grid can be brought online, due to the damage.  They targeted specific, expensive hardware.  This shuts down food distribution, fuel distribution, hospital facilities, water infrastructure.  For fuck’s sake, people are shitting in their neighbor’s yards, because most parts of Texas don’t have any toilet snow.  Society breaks down pretty fucking fast, although the feds/FEMA/military are busting their asses to get things back online.  It does lead to open season against a lot of nation-wide militias that these guys were in touch with.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

8 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 Try this script:

In Arizona, a GOP incumbent narrowly loses the governorship to a D challenger. He reaches deep into the DJT bag of tricks and proclaims the election stolen. Cases wind through the court system, with no fraud found. Two weeks before the election, he declares the decisions corrupt and invalid and announces he will refuse to leave the mansion. He is backed up by the GOP state lege. His challenger, wary of provoking violence, sets up an alternate office and begins making appointments. Peaceful protesters surround the capital, but the sitting governor refrains from calling out the National Guard and a tense stand-off begins with protesters and state police.

GOP Congressmen, Senators, and Governors egged on by Fox and DJT, line up behind the incumbent. A democratic president cautiously declares that the challenger has won the state and that the Federal government will work with her as of Inauguration Day in Arizona.

My problem with this scenario (including the rest you posted) is that it ignores the simple stuff.

If some Republican Governor decides to hold out, it doesn't matter.  He's no longer the boss .  When the Democrat is sworn in, they fire his staff and order him out of the office.  If some bureaucrats/state police refuse to remove him, they fire him.  If NG fucks around, you kick them out as well.

People's attitudes change pretty fucking fast when you stop their paychecks.

And the National Guard is not that large in the US, when you look at the map and what they'd have to do.

[Chooky 13302]

11 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Sure you just keep on being the lobster in the pot.

Is this a Jordan Peterson reference except you're reciting it with your pants around your ankles?

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

“Lamenting women”????

Bitch, we’ll be the ones in charge and organizing and running logistics and tactics.

We’re sneaky and clever - we’ll be running the intelligence apparatus too.

Logistics?  pffft.  You don't even know north from south...

Edited June 30, 2021 by slorch

[Bullneck 18987]

4 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I'm not going to take the time to game out an entire scenario, but I can tell you that massive inflation and the resulting recession or depression will be a big part of it.  Inflation scares me and it's already happening.  Real estate prices skyrocketing to ridiculous levels. Consumer prices for ever good under the sun going up, up , up. "Experts" are saying it's temporary; I say bullshit.  Like everyone is going to just miraculously lower their prices to pre- post-pandemic levels?  Riiiiiiiggghhhttt...

The crime rate is going up, up, up, up

To live in this town you must be tough, tough, tough, tough

Got rats on the west side, bedbugs uptown,

What a mess, this town's in tatters

[AeroHorn 735]

4 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I'm not going to take the time to game out an entire scenario, but I can tell you that massive inflation and the resulting recession or depression will be a big part of it.  Inflation scares me and it's already happening.  Real estate prices skyrocketing to ridiculous levels. Consumer prices for ever good under the sun going up, up , up. "Experts" are saying it's temporary; I say bullshit.  Like everyone is going to just miraculously lower their prices to pre- post-pandemic levels?  Riiiiiiiggghhhttt...

I agree with financial cause being the main driver. A big chunk of the population is living on the edge; rising prices and disappearing jobs over the next 10 years would cause theft and general lawlessness to increase. Combine this with a compromised police force, and we can quickly devolve to a lawless society. The way we are armed and polarized, this could lead to some ugly scenarios.

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

1 hour ago, Jhawkmvp said:

Well, you don't want to cum on your baby. 

 

[tx 3 putt 76399]

11 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

My prediction is that it starts with some guy putting beans in chili. 

 

i put beans in my taco meat !

[atomheartbevo 89449]

My scenario of what an actual modern civil war would look like:

First, I consider anybody committing themselves to civil war to be terrorists, and I think most of the opening moves (and continuing actions) would resemble terrorist attacks by insurgents in a third-world country.  They are going to be hitting infrastructure and the folks who maintain it, and it would be easy to keep things shut down if they leave somebody around to pick off the repair folks.

Even in the red states, there’s a heavy presence of librools who can easily fuck shit up, and same with the blue states having plenty of reds who can fuck shit up.  There’s no company that employees people of only one political persuasion.   Well, IT/computer companies are probably mostly libertarians, but they are going to be sitting on the sidelines cheering everybody on.

What happens with everything if things go to shit.

The Active-Duty Military?

Mostly Useless. The military will be taking care of military shit (their bases and their dependents).  They will be focused on keeping themselves and their families fed, keeping their bases/weapons/food stores/water/etc. secure, their vehicles running, etc.  Roaming around in tanks or aircraft ain’t going to happen (see the list below).  Their fuel and vehicles will be used to keep their bases supplied.  Not to mention what happens to all of the folks deployed overseas.

Law Enforcement?

Useless.  See above.  They all know they’ll have targets on their backs from the anti-government types and the anarchists.  They’ll be worried about their personal homes/properties, their families, and the local powers-that-be will be screaming for them to protect the VIPs rather than out manning checkpoints.  Those that are actually coming in for work, and that aren't stuck guarding VIPs, are going to be stuck guarding repair workers working on the infrastructure, or catching those attacking the infrastructure.

National Guard?

Mostly Useless - see Law Enforcement above.  National Guard will have a huge chunk decide they are going to take care of their families. A shitload of the state officials are going to be screaming for them to protect the state VIPs. They’ll also be stuck guarding their armories and other facilities.  Those reporting for duty, and that aren't stuck guarding VIPs, are going to be stuck guarding repair workers working on the infrastructure, or are going to be tasked with repairing infrastructure, or catching those attacking the infrastructure.

Civilian Workforce

Many people will stop going in to work.  You think the pandemic was bad? Dipshits picking off the occasional stranger or wannabe militias setting up checkpoints would make things far worse.

• Power Distribution - one of the first things to go down, because it’s one of the easiest to take out by an employee, or a lack of employees showing up or refusing to work.
• Water Infrastructure - see Power Distribution. Hopefully people have bathtubs full of toilet snow or toilet water.
• Fuel Distribution - no electricity, no fuel flowing.
• Food Distribution - Non-existent when power goes out.
• Internet - yeah, right.

The economy will completely tank without power, internet, water, fuel, foods etc.  The wailing over movie theaters or restaurants shutting down would be nothing.  It'll fall on deaf ears, since no internet.

The BMDs/lobbyists/corporate America will be losing their shit and screaming at Congress and the White House to actually bust heads of *anybody* fucking around.

People will fucking starve/freeze/overheat/get shot while shitting in the neighbor’s yard.

[Gatorubet 30115]

Yup, the country is full of Onboards.

Only in ‘Murica would a guy on Medicare and Social Security bitch about the evil of Socialism.

[Gatorubet 30115]

Yup, the country is full of Onboards.

Only in ‘Murica would a guy on Medicare and Social Security bitch about the evil of Socialism.

[Js1 85110]

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Only in ‘Murica would a guy on Medicare and Social Security bitch about the evil of Socialism.

Get government out of my healthcare!!1!11!!

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

36 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

My scenario of what an actual modern civil war would look like:

First, I consider anybody committing themselves to civil war to be terrorists, and I think most of the opening moves (and continuing actions) would resemble terrorist attacks by insurgents in a third-world country.  They are going to be hitting infrastructure and the folks who maintain it, and it would be easy to keep things shut down if they leave somebody around to pick off the repair folks.

Even in the red states, there’s a heavy presence of librools who can easily fuck shit up, and same with the blue states having plenty of reds who can fuck shit up.  There’s no company that employees people of only one political persuasion.   Well, IT/computer companies are probably mostly libertarians, but they are going to be sitting on the sidelines cheering everybody on.

What happens with everything if things go to shit.

The Active-Duty Military?

Mostly Useless. The military will be taking care of military shit (their bases and their dependents).  They will be focused on keeping themselves and their families fed, keeping their bases/weapons/food stores/water/etc. secure, their vehicles running, etc.  Roaming around in tanks or aircraft ain’t going to happen (see the list below).  Their fuel and vehicles will be used to keep their bases supplied.  Not to mention what happens to all of the folks deployed overseas.

Law Enforcement?

Useless.  See above.  They all know they’ll have targets on their backs from the anti-government types and the anarchists.  They’ll be worried about their personal homes/properties, their families, and the local powers-that-be will be screaming for them to protect the VIPs rather than out manning checkpoints.  Those that are actually coming in for work, and that aren't stuck guarding VIPs, are going to be stuck guarding repair workers working on the infrastructure, or catching those attacking the infrastructure.

National Guard?

Mostly Useless - see Law Enforcement above.  National Guard will have a huge chunk decide they are going to take care of their families. A shitload of the state officials are going to be screaming for them to protect the state VIPs. They’ll also be stuck guarding their armories and other facilities.  Those reporting for duty, and that aren't stuck guarding VIPs, are going to be stuck guarding repair workers working on the infrastructure, or are going to be tasked with repairing infrastructure, or catching those attacking the infrastructure.

Civilian Workforce

Many people will stop going in to work.  You think the pandemic was bad? Dipshits picking off the occasional stranger or wannabe militias setting up checkpoints would make things far worse.

• Power Distribution - one of the first things to go down, because it’s one of the easiest to take out by an employee, or a lack of employees showing up or refusing to work.
• Water Infrastructure - see Power Distribution. Hopefully people have bathtubs full of toilet snow or toilet water.
• Fuel Distribution - no electricity, no fuel flowing.
• Food Distribution - Non-existent when power goes out.
• Internet - yeah, right.

The economy will completely tank without power, internet, water, fuel, foods etc.  The wailing over movie theaters or restaurants shutting down would be nothing.  It'll fall on deaf ears, since no internet.

The BMDs/lobbyists/corporate America will be losing their shit and screaming at Congress and the White House to actually bust heads of *anybody* fucking around.

People will fucking starve/freeze/overheat/get shot while shitting in the neighbor’s yard.

How do we get the bodies in the trees in this scenario?

[atomheartbevo 89449]

3 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

How do we get the bodies in the trees in this scenario?

[WhatTheBuck 28713]

13 hours ago, VRHorn said:

So that's "I don't have any examples or specifics, just Fox News talking points" - gotcha.

You realize who you’re talking to, right?

[horn4life 3755]

If Democracy falls in the US it will be because of Racist Republicans doing exactly what they did under Trump.  For an extended Period.  

Does ANYONE thing the GOP would not have allowed Trump a third or even fourth term?

[tx 3 putt 76399]

The first state leg that over turns an election result should be hunted down. Tarred and feathered, then sufffer a long, drawn out and very public death.

Their families need to be kicked out of the country 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

My problem with this scenario (including the rest you posted) is that it ignores the simple stuff.

If some Republican Governor decides to hold out, it doesn't matter.  He's no longer the boss .  When the Democrat is sworn in, they fire his staff and order him out of the office.  If some bureaucrats/state police refuse to remove him, they fire him.  If NG fucks around, you kick them out as well.

People's attitudes change pretty fucking fast when you stop their paychecks.

And the National Guard is not that large in the US, when you look at the map and what they'd have to do.

What you’re talking about, though, depends on norms that everybody recognizes holding. The easy “just kick them out” scenario doesn’t hold when the state lege announced that they are backing the loser. When key elements within the bureaucracy announce they are going to keep working for him. When there are two judges swearing in two people. 
 

It is basically the argument that “it can’t happen here.” But it can, and with the GOP’s laser focus on things like down ballot races and the judiciary in purple states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia— it becomes even more likely.

The NG does not need to be everywhere. This is how things start, not where it ends. Most conflicts start locally and often stay that way. And this isn’t how this turns into pitched battles with opposing armies, it’s how we slowly slip into a festering crisis that moves back and forth on the political-kinetic scale. 

[washparkhorn 9935]

9 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Shit man, 1/3 of the nation already has nothing to lose, they are only convinced they have "something to lose" because the TV, talk radio and the internet told them someone was gonna take their non-existent shit.

B i n g o

We skate along tender fault lines when contemplating the worst. 

I suspect as long as the law holds - and it appears it is holding on in my opinion -  we will have the luxury of forums for redress of grievances. And the ballot box to ensure the specific grievances are heard. 

The justice system is designed by the Constitution as a balancing institution in times such as these. The Supreme Court is conducting business as usual, as as expected, and as it should. The Court is noted for its embrace of corporation rights as an equal, as dictated by Congress and the Executive. On the lighter side, it has keen interest in liberty that undergirds the Constitution. The Court today reflects the economic reality of how this nation is owned and governed. Stare decisis, after all, ensures stability - the most precious and valuable national resource we possess - the ability to remain stable in a troubled world. Our brand is taking a bruising, but a lot of democracies have been overwhelmed by right identity politicians. Locusts.

TLDR: The US Supreme Court dislikes those who mess with the fundamental laws of nature and economics. If we lose that pillar, it's game over.

 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

My scenario of what an actual modern civil war would look like:

First, I consider anybody committing themselves to civil war to be terrorists, and I think most of the opening moves (and continuing actions) would resemble terrorist attacks by insurgents in a third-world country.  They are going to be hitting infrastructure and the folks who maintain it, and it would be easy to keep things shut down if they leave somebody around to pick off the repair folks.

Even in the red states, there’s a heavy presence of librools who can easily fuck shit up, and same with the blue states having plenty of reds who can fuck shit up.  There’s no company that employees people of only one political persuasion.   Well, IT/computer companies are probably mostly libertarians, but they are going to be sitting on the sidelines cheering everybody on.

What happens with everything if things go to shit.

The Active-Duty Military?

Mostly Useless. The military will be taking care of military shit (their bases and their dependents).  They will be focused on keeping themselves and their families fed, keeping their bases/weapons/food stores/water/etc. secure, their vehicles running, etc.  Roaming around in tanks or aircraft ain’t going to happen (see the list below).  Their fuel and vehicles will be used to keep their bases supplied.  Not to mention what happens to all of the folks deployed overseas.

Law Enforcement?

Useless.  See above.  They all know they’ll have targets on their backs from the anti-government types and the anarchists.  They’ll be worried about their personal homes/properties, their families, and the local powers-that-be will be screaming for them to protect the VIPs rather than out manning checkpoints.  Those that are actually coming in for work, and that aren't stuck guarding VIPs, are going to be stuck guarding repair workers working on the infrastructure, or catching those attacking the infrastructure.

National Guard?

Mostly Useless - see Law Enforcement above.  National Guard will have a huge chunk decide they are going to take care of their families. A shitload of the state officials are going to be screaming for them to protect the state VIPs. They’ll also be stuck guarding their armories and other facilities.  Those reporting for duty, and that aren't stuck guarding VIPs, are going to be stuck guarding repair workers working on the infrastructure, or are going to be tasked with repairing infrastructure, or catching those attacking the infrastructure.

Civilian Workforce

Many people will stop going in to work.  You think the pandemic was bad? Dipshits picking off the occasional stranger or wannabe militias setting up checkpoints would make things far worse.

• Power Distribution - one of the first things to go down, because it’s one of the easiest to take out by an employee, or a lack of employees showing up or refusing to work.
• Water Infrastructure - see Power Distribution. Hopefully people have bathtubs full of toilet snow or toilet water.
• Fuel Distribution - no electricity, no fuel flowing.
• Food Distribution - Non-existent when power goes out.
• Internet - yeah, right.

The economy will completely tank without power, internet, water, fuel, foods etc.  The wailing over movie theaters or restaurants shutting down would be nothing.  It'll fall on deaf ears, since no internet.

The BMDs/lobbyists/corporate America will be losing their shit and screaming at Congress and the White House to actually bust heads of *anybody* fucking around.

People will fucking starve/freeze/overheat/get shot while shitting in the neighbor’s yard.

The biggest thing that doesn’t get lasts mentioned here is external to the United States. In almost all modern civil wars, one or the other side or both has backing from global or regional powers to keep some level of money/fighters/equipment flowing. And, when things get really bad, even bigger powers step in to try and moderate civilian losses and atrocities— and in doing so, prevent a decisive victory by the superior side (Yugoslavia, Syria). 
 

There are no nations currently in a position to play that role vis a vis the United States and its nuclear arsenal. The fracture of the Soviet Union (chaotic regional independence and localized— but heavy— violence) might be a good place to begin. 

[washparkhorn 9935]

8 hours ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I'm not going to take the time to game out an entire scenario, but I can tell you that massive inflation and the resulting recession or depression will be a big part of it.  Inflation scares me and it's already happening.  Real estate prices skyrocketing to ridiculous levels. Consumer prices for ever good under the sun going up, up , up. "Experts" are saying it's temporary; I say bullshit.  Like everyone is going to just miraculously lower their prices to pre- post-pandemic levels?  Riiiiiiiggghhhttt...

A Civil War would trigger what concerns you.

Thanks to a massive influx of easing, the financial systems are running smoothly. 

Deflationary headwinds remain . . . but the starter fluid has performed as expected. The Fed is actively managing unnecessary fears about inflation, as it stares down the deflation monster, who grinds economies into dust.

Steady as she goes. Our economic engine needs to get back to purring before cutting the fuel supply.