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2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

closetojumping

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Mr Shrimp Unlimited
Mr Shrimp Unlimited

God fucking damnit motherfucker. I've been happily lurking on this board for years but your disgusting fucking verbal flatulence about "but but but he's winner and he hurt his thumb :(" have forced me

closetojumping
closetojumping

Texas and Oregon put the CFB world on tilt with their respective NIL efforts. Many alumni bases are reacting pragmatically and trying to build something competitive of their own that fits their specif

immamac
immamac

Color me surprised that people promising NIL as enticement have not followed through at all and those who have done everything by the book have set expectations that will be met.  It's almost lik

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closetojumping

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I've finally had the chance to catch up on some stuff with some friends.

The money is there for Addison. My view is that he's been Bama or USC the whole way, but a lot of people think Texas has the most compelling case and the money differences aren't material.

More quickly than even I believed, and I've been touting the transformation earlier and louder than anyone, NIL has shaken the sport to its core. This is turning into MLB. Small market programs like Wyoming and Pitt (the A's, the Brewers) sign and develop players that become high quality FBS starters and then big market programs like Texas, OSU, Georgia and USC (the Yankees, the Dodgers) come along and fat stack the player in the portal. 

Texas will build through the portal as heavily as it builds through recruiting in the future. It will all hinge on NIL before it hinges on much else. This has occurred. We are seeing it right now. The great and hilarious irony is that ATM went so over the top in 2022 on the recruiting front that it expedited the current reality. There is a limit, even for billionaires.

You can't out moneywhip other billionaires, and even if you do, you can't do it forever when there is no monetary return. There are other philanthropic mouths to feed and constantly throwing new money at 18-23 year old guys that not only don't say thank you, but think you're lucky to be paying them at all, gets old. It's already getting old. That implies a limit that all capable entities will settle around in the future, if not in this 2023 cycle. 

The logic of the black market is also fading rapidly. $50k to an uncle for a guy working on a multimillion dollar deal starts to look silly to everyone but one guy and he'll eventually figure out how to just grift it from the player like the hangers on do in the pros. The guys that aren't worth 6 figures aren't worth a dime for most schools. That's where an actual floor for the other 60 guys on a roster becomes a competitive advantage for whoever can create such a thing. 

I'll post some other thoughts in the recruiting thread. Anyway, my prediction on Addison is that he winds up at Bama, and if not them, USC. I also predict a fucking ton of ignorant indignance on this thread when a choice is made. Or, if he chooses Texas, we're all happy and some dildo tells me that I'm an idiot for deigning to question the pro-Texas people being "confident".

BTW, all of this unfolding the way it has unfolded has been eye-opening to Bama. Turns out, the price of poker going up to unforeseen levels, rapidly, can pinch alumni bases without comparable liquidity to the big market programs, even if they've been dominant on the field. Funding $5million/year in portal money is something maybe, MAYBE, 10 alumni bases can support. It's even tougher when HS recruiting may match that kind of stack. 

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UncleBuck

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7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

BTW, all of this unfolding the way it has unfolded has been eye-opening to Bama. Turns out, the price of poker going up to unforeseen levels, rapidly, can pinch alumni bases without comparable liquidity to the big market programs, even if they've been dominant on the field.

I think another thing Bama is concerned with, as college football has trended more towards resembling the NFL this offseason, is that Bill O'Brien will find a way to trade their best players for literally nothing in return. 

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Longhornlove

Longhornlove 4831

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1 minute ago, UncleBuck said:

I think another thing Bama is concerned with, as college football has trended more towards resembling the NFL this offseason, is that Bill O'Brien will find a way to trade their best players for literally nothing in return. 

Reminds me of Moneyball, fill the soda machines for a year.

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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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38 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If I'm reading correctly coaches will get to spend 2 hours on field and 2 hours in film/class with players per week.

I think incoming freshmen only get the two-week period before fall camp, which is 6-hours training and 2 hours film.

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burdine

burdine 522

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Convince me that our super wealthy alumni care about athletics.

Longhorn Foundation being pretty preeminent is a solid indication.  

 

Another factor is Austin.  How many college towns have a Lambo dealership and other similar NIL opportunities?  Even if our alumni are not super interested, Austin itself may help as well.

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closetojumping

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11 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Convince me that our super wealthy alumni care about athletics.

I think you've developed the syndrome I've witnessed happen to other otherwise okay-ish posters in the past.

The poster begins to spend too much time in the echo chambers of the Cloak Room or The Daily Texan and they become convinced that playing the gadfly or contrarian with every post they make will be both endearing and thought-provoking to the audience.

In reality, when one escapes those shitholes and lazily slings out well-worn tropes as witty insights, they wind up looking tedious at best and pathetically humorless and unoriginal at worst. This is what you've become on the sports boards. Congrats. 

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Vertigo

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1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Bama has been confident on Addison for months, which is why I continue to bet on them. They don't whiff much when they've rigged the game.

Have they rigged the game though? I hear your arguments as to why, but if I am Addison, I watch all of those guys who I beat out for the Biletnikoff this year go high in round 1 and think to myself that there is really no way I fall out of the top of Round 1 next year. So if I can get an extra (fill in the blank) amount and have guys who will prohibit me from being game planned on the other side of the field, that would give me some serious pause. Obviously Bryce Young is a stud, but I would argue that Addison made Pickett as much as Pickett made Addison last year and it's not like we don't have a guy who is a first round talent in our own right. 

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Pato del Muerto

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10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I think you've developed the syndrome I've witnessed happen to other otherwise okay-ish posters in the past.

The poster begins to spend too much time in the echo chambers of the Cloak Room or The Daily Texan and they become convinced that playing the gadfly or contrarian with every post they make will be both endearing and thought-provoking to the audience.

In reality, when one escapes those shitholes and lazily slings out well-worn tropes as witty insights, they wind up looking tedious at best and pathetically humorless and unoriginal at worst. This is what you've become on the sports boards. Congrats. 

I was hoping you’d have something for me. But just barbs delivered with a side of bloviation.   I’ll take the totality of it under advisement. 

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closetojumping

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1 minute ago, Vertigo said:

Have they rigged the game though? I hear your arguments as to why, but if I am Addison, I watch all of those guys who I beat out for the Biletnikoff this year go high in round 1 and think to myself that there is really no way I fall out of the top of Round 1 next year. So if I can get an extra (fill in the blank) amount and have guys who will prohibit me from being game planned on the other side of the field, that would give me some serious pause. Obviously Bryce Young is a stud, but I would argue that Addison made Pickett as much as Pickett made Addison last year and it's not like we don't have a guy who is a first round talent in our own right. 

My point is mostly about history, not this particular recruitment. If Bama doesn't land this guy, it's an upset. I don't care about how the news broke on the USC part of it. It would be a seismic shift in terms outcomes versus the past. I welcome it. There's an argument to be made that Bama might not be able to get close to $3million. They apparently thought $1million would blow alternatives away and be a layup when they started tampering.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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34 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I've finally had the chance to catch up on some stuff with some friends.

The money is there for Addison. My view is that he's been Bama or USC the whole way, but a lot of people think Texas has the most compelling case and the money differences aren't material.

More quickly than even I believed, and I've been touting the transformation earlier and louder than anyone, NIL has shaken the sport to its core. This is turning into MLB. Small market programs like Wyoming and Pitt (the A's, the Brewers) sign and develop players that become high quality FBS starters and then big market programs like Texas, OSU, Georgia and USC (the Yankees, the Dodgers) come along and fat stack the player in the portal. 

Texas will build through the portal as heavily as it builds through recruiting in the future. It will all hinge on NIL before it hinges on much else. This has occurred. We are seeing it right now. The great and hilarious irony is that ATM went so over the top in 2022 on the recruiting front that it expedited the current reality. There is a limit, even for billionaires.

You can't out moneywhip other billionaires, and even if you do, you can't do it forever when there is no monetary return. There are other philanthropic mouths to feed and constantly throwing new money at 18-23 year old guys that not only don't say thank you, but think you're lucky to be paying them at all, gets old. It's already getting old. That implies a limit that all capable entities will settle around in the future, if not in this 2023 cycle. 

The logic of the black market is also fading rapidly. $50k to an uncle for a guy working on a multimillion dollar deal starts to look silly to everyone but one guy and he'll eventually figure out how to just grift it from the player like the hangers on do in the pros. The guys that aren't worth 6 figures aren't worth a dime for most schools. That's where an actual floor for the other 60 guys on a roster becomes a competitive advantage for whoever can create such a thing. 

I'll post some other thoughts in the recruiting thread. Anyway, my prediction on Addison is that he winds up at Bama, and if not them, USC. I also predict a fucking ton of ignorant indignance on this thread when a choice is made. Or, if he chooses Texas, we're all happy and some dildo tells me that I'm an idiot for deigning to question the pro-Texas people being "confident".

BTW, all of this unfolding the way it has unfolded has been eye-opening to Bama. Turns out, the price of poker going up to unforeseen levels, rapidly, can pinch alumni bases without comparable liquidity to the big market programs, even if they've been dominant on the field. Funding $5million/year in portal money is something maybe, MAYBE, 10 alumni bases can support. It's even tougher when HS recruiting may match that kind of stack. 

Thanks for posting this.  Some things that I thought were really smart (as always, defined by how much they agree with what I already thought)

I already made the MLB comparison earlier and was talking about WAR and markets and stuff like that.  You break the bank in the portal for high WAR guys on short term deals- when they make a material difference for what you are trying to do.  We are trying to launch a staff and get in the SEC and so Addison makes a lot of sense this year, imo. Problem is it does for Riley at USC as well.

In this environment of course we should have half our spots for portal.  Let someone else do the development- go plug and play.  The bottom 10 guys in most classes are bread anyway.

No shit. I never understood the idea that a Billionaire would be fine paying an ingrate for "access".  It's really cool to be a Billionaire.  You aren't kicking in a bunch of money to ungrateful dickheads that are 21 years old for social cachet.  Has to be some other reason. Like winning a $1.00 gentleman's wager at the club.

$10,000,000 payroll a year sounds about right to me.  I'd do it something like this:  2- QB; 2- skill position; 2-OL; 1,000,000 for edge, 1,000,000 for Corners, $1,000,000 for safeties (these guys all being difference makers).  Other than that your DT's and LB's and TE's and special teams got to get by on $50,000.00 a year or whatever we decide the base is going to be for the other 60 guys on the roster that aren't special enough to warrant extreme hand holding.  That's $3,000,000.00 the collectives have to endow in perpetuity which seems doable.  No money for walk ons in the position group collectives imo. If we are going to get money to walk ons it needs to be targeted or special fund.  I actually think they could do some shit to provide value to some businesses if you want to know the truth, and that could help them prepare for after football. It ought to be treated as an internship if they are smart.  


Great stuff.  Thanks as always. I'm betting against you on the Addison destination as I said earlier, but that's probably more hope over me thinking you are wrong than anything else.  


We going to have a problem with a $10,000,000 a year commitment from the big money guys?

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closetojumping

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I was hoping you’d have something for me. But just barbs delivered with a side of bloviation.   I’ll take the totality of it under advisement. 

I'll try to be more cutting next time, since apparently that's what does it for you. Or you could just get your shit together and go back to being a better poster. (is that better?)

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closetojumping

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Apparently not, since even asking is worthy of derision. 

Hahahaha. Oh come on. The notion that our BMDs are a problem is a lazy media canard and you know it. The fucking BMDs do such terrible shit as: give whenever asked; let the school leadership make the calls; and hope to win while enjoying suites they paid to build. The days of Jamail or McCombs "meddling" are long past and even then, those guys were invited by Dodds and Brown to be involved. Every school should be so lucky to be cursed with that kind of billionaire donor support. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Apparently not, since even asking is worthy of derision. 

It was a serious question for me. If we get 10 billionaires to chip in $1,000,000.00 each that's like me donating tree fidy, but finding one dude to drop that kind of coin- even for a billionaire seems a big ask.  Not so much because it's some absurd portion of his net worth or anything, but more because most of those guys have pretty specific ideas about philanthropy and that might be money they'd rather go someplace else.  And it's not like we can name a building after someone for dedicating himself to funding our NIL rights the way we can for, say, building a new facility.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Hahahaha. Oh come on. The notion that our BMDs are a problem is a lazy media canard and you know it. The fucking BMDs do such terrible shit as: give whenever asked; let the school leadership make the calls; and hope to win while enjoying suites they paid to build. The days of Jamail or McCombs "meddling" are long past and even then, those guys were invited by Dodds and Brown to be involved. Every school should be so lucky to be cursed with that kind of billionaire donor support. 

Yeah my question wasn't at all a slight on our BMD as my take on them is more or less what you just laid out- more a question of- is that money they might notice/figure it ought to be spent better elsewhere?

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