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2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

closetojumping

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 42,012

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Boyd may be right, but that's not the "obvious takeaway". It's actually a logic trap, called a conjunction fallacy, that we often fall prey to in that the more specific and detailed a choice is vs the broadest and least detailed option, lazy thinking will immediately gravitate towards to the more complicated answer. Boyd has no idea whether the staff has decided the Buck role has to be fundamentally more adept at drops in the future. He doesn't speak to anyone on the staff and they wouldn't tell someone that anyway. 

The "obvious takeaway" is that Texas thinks it needs another Buck from the portal. So they're offering guys that they think can play the position. They need a body. If he's able to cover well beyond the ability to simply somehow be above replacement on the field in general, awesome. I also don't speak to the staff and can say with certainty that what I just offered up is more likely to be correct, mathematically.

More on the Conjunction Fallacy, or "The Linda Problem" is spoilered for those interested. 

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Regarding the conjunction fallacy, it's covered pretty well in a number of excellent and accessible books around why and how we make decisions, and behavioral economics. The Invisible Gorilla and Thinking Fast & Slow delve into studies that investigate it and both of those books are pretty fucking good if you're into that kind of thing.

Here's a link to a really simple breakdown of it as well:

https://jesusgilhernandez.com/2013/11/03/the-linda-problem-the-conjuntion-fallacy/

 

Judging from their targets in 2022 class for off ball linebacker it seems the mold they want for that position is a guy like him or the Utah kid. What this does is give Ian the ability to talk up the inevitable IT "position change" narrative about him.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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Codaxx

Codaxx 6,274

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6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Judging from their targets in 2022 class for off ball linebacker it seems the mold they want for that position is a guy like him or the Utah kid. What this does is give Ian the ability to talk up the inevitable IT "position change" narrative about him.

Who the fuck knows. It was broken last year, so feel free to speculate about anything. I watched Ovie (Buck) run up the field 10 yards past everyone, so I am all for watching Buck run 10 yards backwards. It maybe an oversteer, but fuck it, its different

 

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 42,012

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1 minute ago, Codaxx said:

Who the fuck knows. It was broken last year, so feel free to speculate about anything. I watched Ovie (Buck) run up the field 10 yards past everyone, so I am all for watching Buck run 10 yards backwards. It maybe an oversteer, but fuck it, its different

 

So you're speculating they'll hold the edge? lol 

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 42,012

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Per Nahlin:

 

Texas isn’t pushing for TCU transfer Khari Coleman. Our guys are predicting Ole Miss for the D-end.

Western Illinois DB Darius Joiner is still being evaluated but I would guess the staff will take a wait and see approach to see what other options enter the portal.

Regaring Mathis Top 5:

Best guess is Texas, OU, Clemson, Bama, and Ole Miss.

Best best guess: Texas.

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NoName

NoName 17,188

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4 hours ago, Codaxx said:

Texas finished 100th in total defense. I would bet with competent play of the edge Texas gets inside the top 50

let's not use total defense, ever. it isn't 1970 anymore, there are a ton of better options out there that adjust for opponents, tempo and per possession data and that kick out garbage time.

Texas finished at #52 in DFEI and #67 in Defensive F+ (combined with SP+)

they were obviously fucking bad, but they were Miami or Michigan State Defense bad...not Kent State or Texas State or TCU defense bad.

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Codaxx

Codaxx 6,274

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7 minutes ago, NoName said:

let's not use total defense, ever. it isn't 1970 anymore, there are a ton of better options out there that adjust for opponents, tempo and per possession data and that kick out garbage time.

Texas finished at #52 in DFEI and #67 in Defensive F+ (combined with SP+)

they were obviously fucking bad, but they were Miami or Michigan State Defense bad...not Kent State or Texas State or TCU defense bad.

I was thinking of you when I typed it. The ranking or stat wasnt very important. The idea was simply that Texas had a shit defense and I think the majority of it would be fixed with competent play on the edge. (Plus total defense is quickest to find, but I only use it when it really isnt the crux of the idea)

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NoName

NoName 17,188

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2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I was thinking of you when I typed it. The ranking or stat wasnt very important. The idea was simply that Texas had a shit defense and I think the majority of it would be fixed with competent play on the edge. (Plus total defense is quickest to find, but I only use it when it really isnt the crux of the idea)

heh thanks i think?

i think we agree that better edge play (honestly, line play overall) would make a huge difference.

FEI link: https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei

 

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Codaxx

Codaxx 6,274

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8 minutes ago, NoName said:

heh thanks i think?

i think we agree that better edge play (honestly, line play overall) would make a huge difference.

FEI link: https://www.bcftoys.com/2021-fei

 

I think the biggest issue by far was the edge. Rod Babers had a stat that opposing offenses were running at over 10 yards per carry in the D gap (forgot if that was right or left side). I believe he said that prior to the Kansas game. Texas didnt get gashed in the A/B gap often. They got destroyed C gap and out. When you are that bad on the edge, it just messes everything up. 

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nineliveslost

nineliveslost 3,012

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4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Per Nahlin:

 

Texas isn’t pushing for TCU transfer Khari Coleman. Our guys are predicting Ole Miss for the D-end.

Western Illinois DB Darius Joiner is still being evaluated but I would guess the staff will take a wait and see approach to see what other options enter the portal.

Regaring Mathis Top 5:

Best guess is Texas, OU, Clemson, Bama, and Ole Miss.

Best best guess: Texas.

I thought we were in front because of the Patterson hire and you know "connections" . Hell the position is a need also and we arent pushing for him?

 

WTF? Did I miss something ?

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Surlian

Surlian 79

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10 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

I thought we were in front because of the Patterson hire and you know "connections" . Hell the position is a need also and we arent pushing for him?

 

WTF? Did I miss something ?

We're pursuing Mathis (3ish posts before yours), not Coleman. Different TCU DE. 

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Tommy Nobis

Tommy Nobis 905

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On 2/16/2022 at 3:05 PM, Getafix said:
 
[/url]  
image.thumb.png.0c725bd6a6b076e18ac1e665378c2d02.png
 
Coming out of high school, offers from Bama, LSU, Tenn, Ole Miss, ND, A&M, others.
From his Vandy bio:
As a Freshman (2020)
• Four games played
• Six tackles, five against No. 6/5 Florida and one at Missouri
• First career fumble recovery versus the Gators
• Among SEC freshmen, third in fumbles recovered/game (0.20)
• Among all SEC players, tied for fifth in fumbles recovered/game

The Wright File
• Four-star prospect by ESPN
• Three-star by Rivals and 247Sports
• Top 400 national prospect by 247Sports
• Top 20 Alabama prospect by ESPN and 247Sports
• Alabama’s 21st-best prospect by Rivals
• Missed most of senior season due to injury
• Sophomore starting quarterback, junior starting safety while playing alongside current Vanderbilt safety Justin Harris
• 54 tackles, six interceptions and six defensed passes, helping Etowah to 5A state quarterfinals as a junior
• Three interceptions returned for scores in 2018
• 2018 all-state first team
• 2018 all-region first team
• Varsity letters in football, basketball, baseball and tennis
• Full name is De’Rickey Rashad Wright
• Born and raised in northeast Alabama
• Son of the late Christina Henderson
• Three siblings: Shi’Nita, Sha’Nora and Latrice
• Undeclared major

Career Highs
Tackles: 5, vs. Florida, 11/21/2020
Fumble Recovery: 1, vs. Florida, 11/21/2020

   


Sweet offers but he signed with Vandy lol. All were probably non commitable.

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pacman

pacman 7,512

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I don't recall the exact stats. I believe it was something like 20% of the snaps had the buck dropping into coverage.

To the surprise of nobody here, with the situational awareness of a newborn, Ovie was terrible dropping into coverage.

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nunna yo bizness

nunna yo bizness 1,690

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1 hour ago, UDontKnow said:

Du is French? I thought 'Du Hast' was German?

It's actually both with different meanings.  Du in German is the pronoun "you" (du hast translates as "you are"), whereas in French it is used as a prefix to names indicating "from".  Given the form in which it's used as a prefix in his name it would be consistent with the French usage.

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nunna yo bizness

nunna yo bizness 1,690

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16 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

It's actually both with different meanings.  Du in German is the pronoun "you" (du hast translates as "you are"), whereas in French it is used as a prefix to names indicating "from".  Given the form in which it's used as a prefix in his name it would be consistent with the French usage.

Should have been du hast is "you have".  I was thinking du bist.

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Napoleon

Napoleon 8,853

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29 minutes ago, nunna yo bizness said:

It's actually both with different meanings.  Du in German is the pronoun "you" (du hast translates as "you are"), whereas in French it is used as a prefix to names indicating "from".  Given the form in which it's used as a prefix in his name it would be consistent with the French usage.

Spanish: 
Del (m) & De La (f)

Del = De+El

French:
Du (m) & De La (f)

Du = De+Le 

 

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