Afghan War ending, foretold by The Onion 10 years Ago [DT thread ruined by politics]

[crash_davis 23465]

We snuck off in the middle of the night. Beyond shitty. I can see this getting CR very quickly. 

Onion article, 10 years ago.

https://www.theonion.com/u-s-quietly-slips-out-of-afghanistan-in-dead-of-night-1819572778

Quote

According to firsthand accounts, the 90,000 American troops stationed in Afghanistan lay in their beds pretending to be asleep until well after midnight Tuesday. They then reportedly tiptoed out to a fleet of awaiting Humvees, tanks, armored cars, and stealth aircraft; gently eased the doors shut; and departed as silently as possible so as not to wake the 30- million-person nation.

Gen. David Petraeus, outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, acknowledged that while finally leaving Afghanistan the way they did was perhaps not the "most ideal" way of ending things, emotions in the region had been running too high lately to consider any other alternative.

"We could have slowly and steadily withdrawn from Afghanistan, but trust me, that would have needlessly prolonged what we both knew deep down was an unhealthy, dead-end relationship," Petraeus said. "And we just couldn't bear to look the Afghan people in the eye and tell them flat out that we were packing up and leaving."

"So we decided to sneak out the back through Tajikistan while the country was asleep," Petraeus added. "We're not proud of it, but it was the least painful option for everyone."

Real news article

https://apnews.com/article/bagram-afghanistan-airfield-us-troops-f3614828364f567593251aaaa167e623

Quote

Afghan soldiers who wandered Monday throughout the base that had once seen as many as 100,000 U.S. troops were deeply critical of how the U.S. left Bagram, leaving in the night without telling the Afghan soldiers tasked with patrolling the perimeter.

“In one night, they lost all the goodwill of 20 years by leaving the way they did, in the night, without telling the Afghan soldiers who were outside patrolling the area,” said Afghan soldier Naematullah, who asked that only his one name be used.

Within 20 minutes of the U.S.’s silent departure on Friday, the electricity was shut down and the base was plunged into darkness, said Raouf, the soldier of 10 years who has also served in Taliban strongholds of Helmand and Kandahar provinces.

The sudden darkness was like a signal to the looters, he said. They entered from the north, smashing through the first barrier, ransacking buildings, loading anything that was not nailed down into trucks.

 

[RPM 26560]

Would you prefer a retreat column to be plastered all over media like the Russian exit? Yeah, it was bad, but it could have been a lot worse.

[Pato del Muerto 53332]

5 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

They entered from the north, smashing through the first barrier, ransacking buildings, loading anything that was not nailed down into trucks.

Sounds like something I heard about in January. 

[Parliament 14560]

CR thread is that way ->

 

[hookemATL 12228]

Does this one go in the Win or Loss column as far as wars go?

[crash_davis 23465]

Just now, hookemATL said:

Does this one go in the Win or Loss column as far as wars go?

We won the battles, mostly, but not the war?

Maybe some cultures and peoples are not made for democracy. That's my take away.

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

At the very least we should have made the Bagram Airfield  target practice for some of our pilots, drones and other long range projectiles before we left town.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9760119/20-000-Tajikistan-troops-ordered-border-stop-Afghanistan-soldiers-fleeing-Taliban.html

And it's safe to say that a plumbing company won't have to worry about seeing their logo on a truck thanks to all the rides left behind...  This article doesn't really show the big number of Humvees. Heavy Duty pickup and other SUVs we left behind.   

[crash_davis 23465]

Just now, Nueces River Rat said:

At the very least we should have made the Bagram Airfield  target practice for some of our pilots, drones and other long range projectiles before we left town.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9760119/20-000-Tajikistan-troops-ordered-border-stop-Afghanistan-soldiers-fleeing-Taliban.html

And it's safe to say that a plumbing company won't have to worry about seeing their logo on a truck thanks to all the rides left behind...  This article doesn't really show the big number of Humvees. Heavy Duty pickup and other SUVs we left behind.   

If the US imposed government survives, it'll help drive our arms sales to fight the Taliban using our equipment. Win/win.

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

10 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Does this one go in the Win or Loss column as far as wars go?

That's a good question.    The Soviets treated their withdraw as an L as they lost  somewhere around 15,000 troops and kind of helped with the Soviet collapse a few years later,   where we lost 2500...   and their occupation was shorter by 10 years.  Going forward we need to ask ourselves if we find the need to retaliate or hunt down terrorist after a 9/11 style attack if we want to inflict maximum damage and get the perps and then let the host country figure it out?  Or do we want to spend another almost half century sitting in a potential lost cause in a part of world where civilization is a foreign concept and the rule of the sword wins the day?  

Edited July 6, 2021 by Nueces River Rat

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

9 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

We won the battles, mostly, but not the war?

Maybe some cultures and peoples are not made for democracy. That's my take away.

That's the way the last three wars (semi declared)  have gone...  At least with Korea a positive came with retaining the South and it still stands today.   We all know the fiasco Vietnam ended, but now they are on cordial terms with the US and even a big trading partner in part thanks to their rivalry with China... kind of an arraigned marriage of necessity  for both countries.  With Afghanistan what is there for the country to offer other than poppies and a training ground for the next terrorist group to fill the vacum of ISIS, Al Qaeda, etc. 

[Guest Lobo]

I hope we took all the monkey bars with us when we left the base so the Taliban has no more training resources.  

Serious question for you guys that been a part of a withdrawal column...I assume you don't bother taking furniture, fixtures, light bulbs, etc.  All the shit there's no need to ship home.  But what other kinda "comb-thru" takes place on something of this magnitude?  My father helped break down part of a U.S. Naval base in Morocco in the mid 60's so it could be sent off for use in Vietnam.  But they had to meticulously account for every single screw, bullet, and circuit.  But I think that not was not so much out of fear it would fall into the hands of Moroccan terrorist, but rather they knew everything that'd be brought to Vietnam.  But I'm curious what the protocol is in this case where as you're leaving the South side of the base, the North side of the base looks like a Wal-Mart at dawn on Black Friday.  

 

[WBT 20884]

Glad we're finally out.  I figured we'd still be hearing people campaign on getting out of Afghanistan for another 5 presidential cycles at least.

[Reagan1k 3040]

1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

leaving in the night without telling the Afghan soldiers tasked with patrolling the perimeter.

Head should always be kept on a swivel while on patrol??

Doesn't sound like much of a perimeter.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Reagan1k

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1108]

1 hour ago, Nueces River Rat said:

That's the way the last three wars (semi declared)  have gone...  At least with Korea a positive came with retaining the South and it still stands today.   We all know the fiasco Vietnam ended, but now they are on cordial terms with the US and even a big trading partner in part thanks to their rivalry with China... kind of an arraigned marriage of necessity  for both countries.  With Afghanistan what is there for the country to offer other than poppies and a training ground for the next terrorist group to fill the vacum of ISIS, Al Qaeda, etc. 

Update to Bill Murray's rousing speech in Stripes:

"We're America, we're 10-1-3!"

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

54 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I hope we took all the monkey bars with us when we left the base so the Taliban has no more training resources.  

Serious question for you guys that been a part of a withdrawal column...I assume you don't bother taking furniture, fixtures, light bulbs, etc.  All the shit there's no need to ship home.  But what other kinda "comb-thru" takes place on something of this magnitude?  My father helped break down part of a U.S. Naval base in Morocco in the mid 60's so it could be sent off for use in Vietnam.  But they had to meticulously account for every single screw, bullet, and circuit.  But I think that not was not so much out of fear it would fall into the hands of Moroccan terrorist, but rather they knew everything that'd be brought to Vietnam.  But I'm curious what the protocol is in this case where as you're leaving the South side of the base, the North side of the base looks like a Wal-Mart at dawn on Black Friday.  

 

The withdrawal of a couple of days ago was nothing like the last days in Vietnam where we had no choice but to  abandon stuff at the embassy in Saigon and I'm sure at the Airport where we had other military assets.   And of course we dumped a lot of stuff at sea to make space for evacuees .    This was planned months ago and it was just picking a date on the calendar and leaving which begs the question why a lot of this stuff was not sent at the very least to a point close by for use by a "friendly" nation either by their governments or even the civilian market.  India is not too far away for example and they are an ally and rival of both China and Pakistan.  

[elfenix 34658]

^^ that's not begging the question

[InkaUtexas 26801]

This was going to happen at some point. There is no way the Afghan National Army (ANA) can maintain these facilities or the equipment. They have almost zero maintenance or supply capacity. 

I spent over 3 years in Afghanistan and will always remember when my boss looked at me when we saw Big Army coming in and saying we lost this fucking war. This was in 2007. 

Prediction is the ANA collapses as an organization, personnel go back to the militia structure and we see Afghanistan continue to be balkanized. Can the Talibs take Kabul? Yes. Can they hold it? Only if they return to their brutal ways. What a fucking mess. 

[davidg 4057]

Here's a documentary when the British drew down their forces and left.

 

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

21 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

This was going to happen at some point. There is no way the Afghan National Army (ANA) can maintain these facilities or the equipment. They have almost zero maintenance or supply capacity. 

I spent over 3 years in Afghanistan and will always remember when my boss looked at me when we saw Big Army coming in and saying we lost this fucking war. This was in 2007. 

Prediction is the ANA collapses as an organization, personnel go back to the militia structure and we see Afghanistan continue to be balkanized. Can the Talibs take Kabul? Yes. Can they hold it? Only if they return to their brutal ways. What a fucking mess. 

Cubans have been able to maintain '57 Chevys somehow...   /sarcasm  

Seriously... That land  has been a hell hole for centuries and the next Army that takes a shot at it will have the same issues.  

[crash_davis 23465]

2 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Cubans have been able to maintain '57 Chevys somehow...   /sarcasm  

Seriously... That land  has been a hell hole for centuries and the next Army that takes a shot at it will have the same issues.  

Those people don't want to be ruled by anyone other than their elders. Like I said above, some cultures may not be fit for democracy or any other rule of law not implemented by their ancestors centuries ago.

They have their shithole and damned if anyone will move them beyond the 19th century.

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

12 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Those people don't want to be ruled by anyone other than their elders. Like I said above, some cultures may not be fit for democracy or any other rule of law not implemented by their ancestors centuries ago.

They have their shithole and damned if anyone will move them beyond the 19th century.

There is a reason a good chunk of that part of the world, the Middle East and Northern Africa have been ruled by Dictators, Kings, or Tribal leaders for centuries and Democracy has been tried and failed for the most part.  Some countries like Egypt and Turkey  have something that looks like a Democracy, but is very much façade where one strong man is replaced by another.

The British, French, Germans, Americans, and Soviets with some of the best weapons of the times all tried a crack at some couldn't maintain it.  The British and French probably did a better job when they were actually colonies to the Crown or the French Government. But once some gained their independence and with the help of oil revenue or other income from natural resources, they reverted or evolved into true hell holes.

[BearSchlong 8231]

"The soldiers are drunk all the time, they're trading hashish for gasoline, and the Russians don't know what to do about it"

Who'd have thunk we'd be where we are today.

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by BearSchlong

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

7 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

"The soldiers are drunk all the time, they're trading hashish for gasoline, and the Russians don't know what to do about it"

Who'd have thunk we'd be where we are today.

 

Charlie Wilson could've out drink the Russians and still act sober

[InkaUtexas 26801]

47 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Cubans have been able to maintain '57 Chevys somehow...   /sarcasm  

Seriously... That land  has been a hell hole for centuries and the next Army that takes a shot at it will have the same issues.  

My bet is it will be China. 

Concerning who rules them, if they are not fighting and outsider they are fighting among the tribes. 

[BearSchlong 8231]

 

[Rockwell Torrey 1364]

Along a similar theme with this thread.

https://www.duffelblog.com/p/donald-rumsfeld-refuses-to-live-in

[crash_davis 23465]

18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

My bet is it will be China. 

Concerning who rules them, if they are not fighting and outsider they are fighting among the tribes. 

China is trying their Belt and Road program to the tune of $62B. Jury is still out on the "success" of a similar program for Africa.

https://insiderpaper.com/china-belt-and-road-afghanistan-us-forces-leave/

I guess it's worth a shot since the other 2 super powers failed.

Quote

With its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is poised to make an exclusive entry into post-US Afghanistan. According to reports, Kabul authorities are intensifying their engagement with China on an extension of the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the BRI’s flagship project.

According to international media, the project involves the construction of highways, railways, and energy pipelines between Pakistan and China—to Afghanistan.

Is this approach better than our democracy regime building approach which has been wildly hit or miss?

[lmao 178]

2 hours ago, WBT said:

Glad we're finally out.  I figured we'd still be hearing people campaign on getting out of Afghanistan for another 5 presidential cycles at least.

So there is no American occupying force in Afghanistan at the moment and for the foreseeable future?

[InkaUtexas 26801]

20 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

China is trying their Belt and Road program to the tune of $62B. Jury is still out on the "success" of a similar program for Africa.

https://insiderpaper.com/china-belt-and-road-afghanistan-us-forces-leave/

I guess it's worth a shot since the other 2 super powers failed.

Is this approach better than our democracy regime building approach which has been wildly hit or miss?

Oh they will launch it, but the Taliban will fight them as well. 

Concerning the BRI, it is starting to collapse in parts of Africa. Parsons received a massive contract in Kenya and the Chinese lost both LNG projects in Northern Mozambique. 

[crash_davis 23465]

Just now, lmao said:

So there is no American occupying force in Afghanistan at the moment and for the foreseeable future?

Until they offer safe harbor to the next terrorists org who target American assets.

[Goredho 17627]

3 hours ago, crash_davis said:

We won the battles, mostly, but not the war?

Maybe some cultures and peoples are not made for democracy. That's my take away.

It’s a system that is as fragile and exploitable as any, and without a strong commitment to secure and preserve it by the people who are living under whatever preceded it, democracy is just an empty facade.  When we establish democracy somewhere where the people weren’t motivated enough to establish it for themselves, it falls apart when we aren’t there providing a scaffolding for it.  Skin-in-the-game and all that.

We need to quit looking at the nation-building of Germany and Japan post-WWII for models of how we should be trying to operate as a waning super-power in 2021.

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

20 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

China is trying their Belt and Road program to the tune of $62B. Jury is still out on the "success" of a similar program for Africa.

https://insiderpaper.com/china-belt-and-road-afghanistan-us-forces-leave/

I guess it's worth a shot since the other 2 super powers failed.

Is this approach better than our democracy regime building approach which has been wildly hit or miss?

Probably not.... I mean they made life for the Soviets hell and I'm sure their initial entry was full of grand intentions of candy, unicorns and rainbows which all communist promise...  Until the promise can't be kept and they run out of money or people resent their totalitarian tactics and have enough.   

The downside for the Chinese is other than land, Afghanistan has little to no natural resources to exploit.   That's why the Chi Coms are vesting in Africa thanks to the some of those nations having mines for rare minerals that can only be found there.  Or in other nations that might not be as friendly in the long term.  

I say let the Chinese  take a shot and let the Afghans bloody them up ala Soviet style.  

[Bevo 13825]

2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

From Onion article:

“At press time, distraught American officials confirmed they had made a "terrible mistake" ever leaving Afghanistan, and were amassing troops at the border to reinvade the country by week's decade's end.”

Wait for it.

 

[crash_davis 23465]

1 minute ago, Goredho said:

It’s a system that is as fragile and exploitable as any, and without a strong commitment to secure and preserve it by the people who are living under whatever preceded it, democracy is just an empty facade.  When we establish democracy somewhere where the people weren’t motivated enough to establish it for themselves, it falls apart when we aren’t there providing a scaffolding for it.  Skin-in-the-game and all that.

We need to quit looking at the nation-building of Germany and Japan post-WWII for models of how we should be trying to operate as a waning super-power in 2021.

Japan unconditionally surrendered after having 2 big ass bombs dropped on them. Germany was split in 2 with one side being Democratic and the other side only being Democratic in name. Not sure those are success stories of the people wanting and welcoming change versus having lost in war and having terms dictated to them.

What of our attempts at nation building has "succeeded"? Iraq? Latin American countries although the definition of "succeed" is certainly arguable.

 

[InkaUtexas 26801]

6 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Probably not.... I mean they made life for the Soviets hell and I'm sure their initial entry was full of grand intentions of candy, unicorns and rainbows which all communist promise...  Until the promise can't be kept and they run out of money or people resent their totalitarian tactics and have enough.   

The downside for the Chinese is other than land, Afghanistan has little to no natural resources to exploit.   That's why the Chi Coms are vesting in Africa thanks to the some of those nations having mines for rare minerals that can only be found there.  Or in other nations that might not be as friendly in the long term.  

I say let the Chinese  take a shot and let the Afghans bloody them up ala Soviet style.  

Afghanistan has a ton of mineral wealth. One of the things we did was open it up for bidding and who won? China.... So you had US/Afghan forces guarding one side of the mountain and the Chinese mining the other. 

Agree let them try. 

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

11 minutes ago, Goredho said:

It’s a system that is as fragile and exploitable as any, and without a strong commitment to secure and preserve it by the people who are living under whatever preceded it, democracy is just an empty facade.  When we establish democracy somewhere where the people weren’t motivated enough to establish it for themselves, it falls apart when we aren’t there providing a scaffolding for it.  Skin-in-the-game and all that.

We need to quit looking at the nation-building of Germany and Japan post-WWII for models of how we should be trying to operate as a waning super-power in 2021.

Agreed.  The last part will likely never happen again.   I really thought Vietnam taught us a lesson about breaking things and not having a solid plan to help fix it especially since some of the Generals and other decision makers in the both the Afghan and Gulf Wars I and II were rank and file in Vietnam and saw how f'ed everything was on the ground thanks to dictates from Washington.   Some of the current and upcoming decision makers will be from the generation who fought from the first Gulf War to present and will be even more unready to engage in a proper nation build.   The upside is MAYBE some will be hesitant to even engage long term in hell holes like Afghanistan and think along the lines of let's go kick their ass if we have to do and let them figure out how to heal their wounds.  They hated us before and will hate us afterwards, so what the "f"?    Send them a check for the cash value of what we broke and send directions to the nearest lumber yard.  

Edited July 6, 2021 by Nueces River Rat

[crash_davis 23465]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Afghanistan has a ton of mineral wealth. One of the things we did was open it up for bidding and who won? China.... So you had US/Afghan forces guarding one side of the mountain and the Chinese mining the other. 

Agree let them try. 

Did we pay off the elders who thought they owned the mines? China will pay off people who disagree until they agree.

[Goredho 17627]

8 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Japan unconditionally surrendered after having 2 big ass bombs dropped on them. Germany was split in 2 with one side being Democratic and the other side only being Democratic in name. Not sure those are success stories of the people wanting and welcoming change versus having lost in war and having terms dictated to them.

What of our attempts at nation building has "succeeded"? Iraq? Latin American countries although the definition of "succeed" is certainly arguable.

 

Exactly, the lessons of Japan and Germany and WWII shouldn’t be that democracy in and of itself magically works better than all other political systems.  It’s that democracy can work in a country that has lost a generation of its citizens to war and where the alternative is unquestionable annihilation.

Edit: their skin in the game was prepaid in WWII itself.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Goredho

[InkaUtexas 26801]

5 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Did we pay off the elders who thought they owned the mines? China will pay off people who disagree until they agree.

You can pay off the elders all want. If their grandsons don't care they shoot your ass up. It is a national past time. Shoot at Infidels or the other tribe on the other side of the mountain. 

 

[crash_davis 23465]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

You can pay off the elders all want. If their grandsons don't care they shoot your ass up. It is a national past time. Shoot at Infidels or the other tribe on the other side of the mountain. 

 

Sounds like Southside Chicago.

[Nueces River Rat 5742]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Afghanistan has a ton of mineral wealth. One of the things we did was open it up for bidding and who won? China.... So you had US/Afghan forces guarding one side of the mountain and the Chinese mining the other. 

Agree let them try. 

What keeps the Afghans from at least letting a western power or powers from trying to exploit , if anything so they come back and nationalize it.   

I mean Mexico, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, etc. did it and it worked initially to get them into the game.  Saudi Arabia, etc in the middle east reinvested heavily in their systems and kept corruption at bay.  While Mexico (PEMEX) has been nothing but a racket and it's infrastructure falling apart to the point they have to rely on US refined products, especially NG and LNG.

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

You can pay off the elders all want. If their grandsons don't care they shoot your ass up. It is a national past time. Shoot at Infidels or the other tribe on the other side of the mountain. 

 

Yeah, McRaven said it was the most gun-loving culture he's ever seen and he's seen 'em all over the world.  

Heard another operator make the joke, "they'd blow past us in school shooting stats in a semester...but the shitheads don't have any fucking schools." 

[crash_davis 23465]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, McRaven said it was the most gun-loving culture he's ever seen and he's seen 'em all over the world.  

Heard another operator make the joke, "they'd blow past us in school shooting stats in a semester...but the shitheads don't have any fucking schools." 

they are stopping school shootings by preventing school. seems like a stellar plan to me.

[InkaUtexas 26801]

17 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, McRaven said it was the most gun-loving culture he's ever seen and he's seen 'em all over the world.  

Heard another operator make the joke, "they'd blow past us in school shooting stats in a semester...but the shitheads don't have any fucking schools." 

Yeah, and who cares if they captured some more M-4's. Place is full of weapons. 

Concerning schools. Would take us a month to build one and the Taliban would blow it up in a night. 

[CycleTex87 3003]

4 hours ago, Nueces River Rat said:

At the very least we should have made the Bagram Airfield  target practice for some of our pilots, drones and other long range projectiles before we left town.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9760119/20-000-Tajikistan-troops-ordered-border-stop-Afghanistan-soldiers-fleeing-Taliban.html

And it's safe to say that a plumbing company won't have to worry about seeing their logo on a truck thanks to all the rides left behind...  This article doesn't really show the big number of Humvees. Heavy Duty pickup and other SUVs we left behind.   

I mean, did they at least leave the keys in the ignition?

[InkaUtexas 26801]

nope. 

[Guest Lobo]

6 minutes ago, CycleTex87 said:

I mean, did they at least leave the keys in the ignition?

Not in the ignition, they're above the visor.  Didn't you see any movies as a kid? 

[CycleTex87 3003]

This series has really sucked since the Bin Laden episode.  No direction, and the ending left something to be desired as well. Won’t re-watch. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13707]

4 hours ago, hookemATL said:

Does this one go in the Win or Loss column as far as wars go?

 

4 hours ago, crash_davis said:

We won the battles, mostly, but not the war?

Maybe some cultures and peoples are not made for democracy. That's my take away.

You can't win occupations so it can't be the goal. 

[High Plains Drifter 11161]

4 hours ago, hookemATL said:

Does this one go in the Win or Loss column as far as wars go?

 

It will be an L once the Taliban resumes control of the country.