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2021 MLB Draft Megathread

Sir Ulrich

By Sir Ulrich
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cafe society

cafe society 2,876

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Yes, I am certain that were done with the 1st round. And yes, I'm certain we're on to compensation picks, and yes, I'm certain that Ty is still waiting. Am I missing something? 

Earlier you seemed to know with the certainty of a family confidante that he would sign.  No matter what.  Your response seems like walking it back.

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8,855

Posted
Posted
Just now, cafe society said:

Earlier you seemed to know with the certainty of a family confidante that he would sign.  No matter what.  Your response seems like walking it back.

 My post earlier asked how far he had to drop before we could have any hope that he'd come back. So not sure what you're referring to. But pointless now. 

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Balcones

Balcones 309

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, texasstrong12 said:

Detroit went under slot for Jobe so they're about to throw a bunch of extra money at Madden. 

It looks disappointing to drop that far but he's gonna get paid and probably more than several picks ahead of him. 

Not doubting this, and happy to see him get paid as much as he can, but why would they pay over slot? Do they think there is risk he wouldn’t sign? I don’t understand the logic, but I assume there is a need to pay him more or they wouldn’t do it.  If the market says he is the 35th pick, why pay him more?

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rvm96

rvm96 1,643

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Balcones said:

Not doubting this, and happy to see him get paid as much as he can, but why would they pay over slot? Do they think there is risk he wouldn’t sign? I don’t understand the logic, but I assume there is a need to pay him more or they wouldn’t do it.  If the market says he is the 35th pick, why pay him more?

He's a redshirt sophmore so he could go back to Texas

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13,273

Posted
Posted (edited)

I kind of wanted Baltimore to get Rocker is available but they probably actually scouted the players instead of just being brainwashed by the SECSECSEC college baseball commentators like I was.

Or not. I guess I have no real reason to just take on faith that the Os know what they are doing. But here is hoping Cowser becomes an All-Star quality everyday player for the MLB club soon. Every club is guaranteed one after all, even my Os.

Meanwhile Texas exits the first round unscathed. Will the heart break start today? I guess we will know soon. 

Edited by Valmy77
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

How long do y'all think this second round will last?  I wanna try and catch the tail end of it live if schedule permits.  I'm guessing 12-5p (CDT). 

 

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Don Johnson

Don Johnson 4,757

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

How long do y'all think this second round will last?  I wanna try and catch the tail end of it live if schedule permits.  I'm guessing 12-5p (CDT). 

 

Much faster.  They have to get 9 rounds in today.  I think its 1 minute between picks.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

30 picks x 9 rounds=270 minutes.  Plus I'm sure they'll bake in some media timeouts and the short compensatory round after 2.  So we're looking at 300 minutes.  Or 5 hours.  So my 12-5pm wasn't that far off.  

As Longhorn baseball fans, we worry every year about the draft because of all of our talent (both incoming and 3rd year+).  But this is a confluence of a lot for baseball fans.  Based on last night and what ownership groups have indicated, the signing money will be a kind of a bell curve.  Very early round guys may get more than usual and later round guys may get less than usual with the middle 12-15 round guys getting about the usual.  Add to that if you don't like what you're offered, you can return to school with no eligibility penalty.  You also have until much closer to school to decide so you get a better idea of what your team's roster will look like the following Spring.  And there's just fewer MiLB teams to catch on with after your draft.  People don't realize, some draft picks are cut before they ever take a swing or a pitch in professional baseball when there's no rookie league or SS team.  And we just had so much damn talent and production from guys who are on that weird Covid-19 cusp of have technically been out of HS long enough/proper birthday...could go or could come back and really boost their stock in what'll be a deeper draft next year.  
 

tl;dr---as with most years...pins and needles.  But with the goofy variables, we can come back as a Top 15 team with Super Regional aspirations or come back as the early season favorite to win it all.  It's just gonna be who takes Round 8 money but is worried about washing out in Low A in 2 years because an extra 30 rounds of guys are coming up next year with the usual eligibility restrictions cast back on them.  

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Don Johnson

Don Johnson 4,757

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Lobo said:

30 picks x 9 rounds=270 minutes.  Plus I'm sure they'll bake in some media timeouts and the short compensatory round after 2.  So we're looking at 300 minutes.  Or 5 hours.  So my 12-5pm wasn't that far off.  

Oh.  I read your post as asking how long the second round will last.  That's what my response was to.  

I'm sure it will go to at least 5:00 with all the bullshit built in.

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txhorns

txhorns 2,413

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

30 picks x 9 rounds=270 minutes.  Plus I'm sure they'll bake in some media timeouts and the short compensatory round after 2.  So we're looking at 300 minutes.  Or 5 hours.  So my 12-5pm wasn't that far off.  

As Longhorn baseball fans, we worry every year about the draft because of all of our talent (both incoming and 3rd year+).  But this is a confluence of a lot for baseball fans.  Based on last night and what ownership groups have indicated, the signing money will be a kind of a bell curve.  Very early round guys may get more than usual and later round guys may get less than usual with the middle 12-15 round guys getting about the usual.  Add to that if you don't like what you're offered, you can return to school with no eligibility penalty.  You also have until much closer to school to decide so you get a better idea of what your team's roster will look like the following Spring.  And there's just fewer MiLB teams to catch on with after your draft.  People don't realize, some draft picks are cut before they ever take a swing or a pitch in professional baseball when there's no rookie league or SS team.  And we just had so much damn talent and production from guys who are on that weird Covid-19 cusp of have technically been out of HS long enough/proper birthday...could go or could come back and really boost their stock in what'll be a deeper draft next year.  
 

tl;dr---as with most years...pins and needles.  But with the goofy variables, we can come back as a Top 15 team with Super Regional aspirations or come back as the early season favorite to win it all.  It's just gonna be who takes Round 8 money but is worried about washing out in Low A in 2 years because an extra 30 rounds of guys are coming up next year with the usual eligibility restrictions cast back on them.  

I thought they were sticking with the shorter draft long term?

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

Oh god, a 5-hour round of MLB baseball draft picks?  No man, shit no.  I do believe you get ass kicked for something like that.  

As much as I love watching our football, basketball, and baseball players get selected to the next level...I've never been able to sit through draft shows.  I don't know how the fuck people sit through real drafts, let alone mock or fantasy ones.  But we just have an extra lot riding on this year for myriad factors.  

txhorns-I thought there was to be another ownership vote after this draft/signing period where they could revert back to a 40-50 round draft.  I think the prevailing notion was to keep cutting MiLB teams and see where signing bonuses left them and the draft-pick landscape because there may still be a one year echo of pent-up talent because of the eligibility backlog next year.  In the long run, I think a 20-round draft helps schools like Texas, it's this 2020-2024 window that I think is gonna be murky for all involved.  I dunno, I thought owners still had time to evaluate and decide on next year.   I'm torn on 2022 and maybe 2023 on how it shakes out for elite programs like ours.  

Edited by Lobo
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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, rvm96 said:

He's a redshirt sophmore so he could go back to Texas

The slot value for the #3 pick is $7.2 million. The slot value for the #32 pick is $2.3 million 

It sounds like Jobe may have gone way under slot based on twitter. In other words, Madden is about to make bank. Probably getting a $3 million plus contract. 

I think Madden had a price tag that needed to be met and that's why he slipped a few spots. It was going to take some bonus pool money to get him which the Tigers had after taking Jobe over Mayer. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62,881

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

The slot value for the #3 pick is $7.2 million. The slot value for the #32 pick is $2.3 million 

It sounds like Jobe may have gone way under slot based on twitter. In other words, Madden is about to make bank. Probably getting a $3 million plus contract. 

I think Madden had a price tag that needed to be met and that's why he slipped a few spots. It was going to take some bonus pool money to get him which the Tigers had after taking Jobe over Mayer. 

I assume if Madden were to show that he has a legitimate and reliable 3rd pitch by using the changeup next spring far more than the 5%-ish of the time he used it this spring - that alone might make him a top 5 pick in 2022? It's a less crowded field next year in terms of apex college starters, he's a proven workhorse with a top end FB and slider. It seems like he's actually a guy that could benefit in coming back and proving something. 

I realize that turning down $3-$3.5 in order to take a shot at getting into the $5-$7 range or the absolute risk of injury or just wasting a year means he's probably gone and I don't blame him. In any event, I think his changeup looked damned good and he just needs to spend time showcasing it, so I wouldn't call him an idiot if he somehow did decide to come back to campus. 

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texasstrong12

texasstrong12 4,668

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I assume if Madden were to show that he has a legitimate and reliable 3rd pitch by using the changeup next spring far more than the 5%-ish of the time he used it this spring - that alone might make him a top 5 pick in 2022? It's a less crowded field next year in terms of apex college starters, he's a proven workhorse with a top end FB and slider. It seems like he's actually a guy that could benefit in coming back and proving something. 

I realize that turning down $3-$3.5 in order to take a shot at getting into the $5-$7 range or the absolute risk of injury or just wasting a year means he's probably gone and I don't blame him. In any event, I think his changeup looked damned good and he just needs to spend time showcasing it, so I wouldn't call him an idiot if he somehow did decide to come back to campus. 

Yeah, he's definitely gone. No team would have drafted Madden that high unless they could sign him. 

I've seen talk on twitter that Madden could be getting about $4 million with the bonus pool money. The Tigers likely went way under slot with Jobe because Mayer would have been an incredible steal at #3. A lot of people had Mayer as the top prospect in the class so if they took Jobe at #3 it's because the Tigers thought they could get him for extremely cheap. 

I think you're right that Madden could potentially improve his draft stock by adding a reliable 3rd pitch but you have to be a gambling man to turn down $3.5 to $4 million. 

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Round 3 is in the books.  No current or future 'Horns drafted.  We will be at sub-half million signing amounts by the turn of the hour.  

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Sgt. Slaughter

Sgt. Slaughter 2,841

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Haven’t been able to follow as much as normal, is there a POV on whether or not that’s too low for him to forego heading to Clemson?

Pitt should have enough free money to get him signed.

However, they have followed up the Davis pick with 3 high schoolers with signability concerns, so I guess it depends on which ones they pursue hardest.

Edited by Sgt. Slaughter
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

WVU ace Jackson Wolf to San Diego in the 4th.  That guy can't get the fuck out of this conference fast enough.  

Fast 4th round is in the books.  No 'Horns players or prospects taken.  Joshua Stewart now listed as the top available prospect from our pool of both current players and prospects.  

Edited by Lobo
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