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What the fuck is wrong with you, Austin?

crash_davis

By crash_davis
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105093

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

If the city doesn't invest in world class infrastructure now, it will pay world class prices later

A message that was stated -- and ignored (by neighborhood associations who fought every change tooth-and-nail) -- back in the early 80s.  Which was the time to build such things.

We are very, very behind the infrastructure curve, and falling further behind every day.  Everything we do is doomed to be inadequate because it's already too late.  We're fighting a raging fire with a teacup.

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Bozo_Casanova
Bozo_Casanova

Well for starters it’s the one and only good public buidling we’ve got and it’s so popular that pretty millennial women take their instagram shots and hang out in groups on nice afternoons on the outs

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2616

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, PvilleStang said:

The fact that our appraisals have gone DOWN YoY and the net value of our properties have gone down somewhere around 30-40% from their peak (using Zillow estimates of our property values)

I don’t know if I’m confusing you with other posters but I keep seeing this concept put forth and it’s just false (with the caveat that I neither care what Zillow says and using them to bolster the credibility of that argument is about as worthless as quoting an Aggie neighbor).  
 

Home values have not gone down 30%-40%.  They didn’t even do that in 2008 when shit really hit the fan in the property market.  
 

I’m pretty disgusted with the inaccuracy of mass property tax appraisals so I’m sympathetic to complaints about cash-flow volatility, but that’s not an Austin problem.  

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PvilleStang

PvilleStang 2875

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t know if I’m confusing you with other posters but I keep seeing this concept put forth and it’s just false (with the caveat that I neither care what Zillow says and using them to bolster the credibility of that argument is about as worthless as quoting an Aggie neighbor).  
 

Home values have not gone down 30%-40%.  They didn’t even do that in 2008 when shit really hit the fan in the property market.  
 

I’m pretty disgusted with the inaccuracy of mass property tax appraisals so I’m sympathetic to complaints about cash-flow volatility, but that’s not an Austin problem.  

They absolutely have gone down.  The county appraisals were more smoothed out from the constant spikes, but our appraised values in TC went way up in 2020 and 2021 after the pandemic shortages and run up, only to come down in value 30-40% of the peak value.  Given the appraisal district only values around the EOY value of the property, and also takes a beating on protests, we've only seen is really plateau and come down 5-10% of the peak value.

And I know the values weren't far off because we bought in 2020, then saw several of our neighbors sell their houses in the last year or two, and the prices pretty much match what Zillow has been estimating.  Only exception to that rule was when we had a neighbor throw in $250K over ask to kill the multi-bid situation (they were coming from San Fran area, go figure).  That one overshot the estimate by a mile.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3254

Posted
Posted
On 9/13/2024 at 10:54 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

We meaning the city of Austin not me personally. 
Are you asking why there’s a disconnect between the city’s professional staff and the council? Boy, that could fill volumes, but basically because the voters vote for assholes who throw staff and good work under the bus at the slightest controversy, and you reward them for it. 

 

On 9/14/2024 at 6:43 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

No. It's more like this:

 

Years zero: Consensus develops that we have an issue on the horizon, council tasks staff and commissions to gather input and develop plans

Year 1: Staff and commissions gather input and develop plans

Year 2: NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council backpedals, tasks commissions and staff to include neighborhood cranks in process

Year 3-5: Staff tweaks plan while waiting out war of attrition between factions participating in the process

Year 4: 1/3 of council is replaced, running on "changing the culture of city hall," and "including the voices of the neighborhoods." New council members appoint neighborhood cranks to key commissions

Year 5: staff and city management bring  compromise plans to council. Council passes on 1st reading, and schedule months of hearings to gather feedback. NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council decides to start over, sends back to staff and commissions to gather input and develop plans

Year 5: staff and commissions develop plans

Year 6: NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council backpedals, tasks commissions and staff to include neighborhood cranks in process

Year 7-9: Staff tweaks plan while waiting out war of attrition between factions participating in the process

Year 8: 1/3 of council is replaced, running on "changing the culture of city hall," and "including the voices of the neighborhoods." New council members appoint neighborhood cranks to key commissions

Year 9: staff and city management bring  compromise plans to council. Council passes on 1st reading, and schedule months of hearings to gather feedback. NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council decides to start over, sends back to staff and commissions to gather input and develop plans

eventually you find yourself in a bond year and whatever bullshit on the table at that moment winds up in front of the public, CHEAPSKATES FREAK OUT, and it's a coin flip from there

repeat ad infinitum

That happens everywhere in every city with any type of proposed change.  But things get done in other cities.  The question should be "why is it different in Austin?" Look I appreciate the work you put in, but you have a severe disdain for the citizens of the city you're trying to improve.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105093

Posted
Posted
That happens everywhere in every city with any type of proposed change.  But things get done in other cities.  The question should be "why is it different in Austin?" Look I appreciate the work you put in, but you have a severe disdain for the citizens of the city you're trying to improve.  

The difference is the historical power structures that each city has to deal with.
No other significant city in Texas has the coalition of entrenched “neighborhood” interests like Austin does. They each have different dynamics/pre-existing power structures that are challenging in their own way, but the neighborhood association dynamic makes Austin particularly dysfunctional.
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LCHorn

LCHorn 2616

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PvilleStang said:

They absolutely have gone down.

Going down in absolute sense and going down 30%-40% is a huge matter of degree, no?  Look, the TCAD values are wildly inexact--you can't use those to presume fair market value, in spite of the Texas Constitution mandate. 

I don't like using sales price as a proxy for value (it's subject to supply distortion), but the Texas A&M home price index shows a price decline of 14% off the peak.  I think that's most heavily felt in the $750K-$1.5m range because those homes are upgrades for most buyers and the potential buyers are locked in to cheaper homes by terrifically low rates.  I don't know what your property's value is but I'd wager if it's between $400K-$500K any value loss is in the single digits. 

Either way, complaining about the city of Austin share of your tax bill while not also putting most of your blame on recapture (if you're getting hit for AISD taxes) is fine, I guess, but the injustice of the latter is in proportion far more offensive to me. 

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royiv

royiv 9283

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PvilleStang said:

Our residence dropped in value 20% since the peak, while one of our rentals went down 38% since the peak, and another dropped 41% (county, not City of Austin).  The market is CLEARLY in correction phase from the over-valuation.

Are you talking appraised value? The number you get from the appraisal district is not market value.

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royiv

royiv 9283

Posted
Posted
Just now, PvilleStang said:

Market, not appraisal.  TCAD will drop an appraisal value as often as aggy wins a national championship in football.

How are you measuring market value? It sounds like you’re using Zillow estimates unless I’m misunderstanding you. Zillow is famously inaccurate with their estimates. I don’t disagree that there’s downward pressure on pricing in Austin, but I haven’t seen any credible data showing 40% decreases.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105093

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, royiv said:

How are you measuring market value? It sounds like you’re using Zillow estimates unless I’m misunderstanding you. Zillow is famously inaccurate with their estimates. I don’t disagree that there’s downward pressure on pricing in Austin, but I haven’t seen any credible data showing 40% decreases.

This.  I can't say that there's not a home or two, or a small enclave or two, that just happen to be in the worst of all possible places to take that punch.....but no, across the board, we have not seen a 40% drop.  From 22-23, a drop of around 10%.  From 23 to 24, another 2.8%.  Bloomberg says that since the peak housing prices in Austin (which happened in 2022), prices have dropped 18% as of this April (doubt they've dropped another 22% in the last 4 months).

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texasdago

texasdago 7570

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Either way, complaining about the city of Austin share of your tax bill while not also putting most of your blame on recapture (if you're getting hit for AISD taxes) is fine, I guess, but the injustice of the latter is in proportion far more offensive to me. 

Excited Lets Go GIF

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2616

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, PvilleStang said:

Market, not appraisal.  TCAD will drop an appraisal value as often as aggy wins a national championship in football.

So you've tried to sell them, then?  No other method is going to determine market value with the accuracy you're citing. 

 

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

From 22-23, a drop of around 10%.  From 23 to 24, another 2.8%

If you believe the Texas A&M Real Estate Center index, sales prices have actually gone up in '24 (every quarter). 

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PvilleStang

PvilleStang 2875

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

So you've tried to sell them, then?  No other method is going to determine market value with the accuracy you're citing. 

Actually, we did try selling one of the properties earlier this year, and it fell right in line with the market estimates.

 

That said, I'm completely in agreement there.  The Austin market is mostly driven by the Lakeway / Westlake / Terrytown bored housewives / Realtor initiative.  And I couldn't be happier that the association of Realtors were gifted that huge punch in the junk recently.  I really struggle to find how a realtor ever acts in the best interest of a buyer, all the while having their income driven by a percentage of the purchase price.  Their incentivized to ratchet every dollar they can out of the buyer.  How else can they afford their G-Wagons and Lexuses.  

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2616

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PvilleStang said:

I really struggle to find how a realtor ever acts in the best interest of a buyer, all the while having their income driven by a percentage of the purchase price.  Their incentivized to ratchet every dollar they can out of the buyer.  How else can they afford their G-Wagons and Lexuses.  

This belongs better on the real estate thread, but I think the ethical conflict is more obvious on the seller side-if I’m an agent I’m more likely to move an under priced house than trying to maximize the price (which obviously is the goal for most sellers).  Moreover, my time is finite so the more of it I spend working towards that higher price, the lower the return on said time.  
 

As far as the cars, the tax code is VERY realtor friendly.  I’ve had realtors send me prelim tax returns showing $20k in yearly AGI and they can also make it show $120k in AGI because of all the eligible deductions.  I’m actually kind of surprised we aren’t all realtors just to reap the tax advantages.  

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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5633

Posted
Posted
A message that was stated -- and ignored (by neighborhood associations who fought every change tooth-and-nail) -- back in the early 80s.  Which was the time to build such things.
We are very, very behind the infrastructure curve, and falling further behind every day.  Everything we do is doomed to be inadequate because it's already too late.  We're fighting a raging fire with a teacup.

A larger issue most recently is that Austin lost federal and state legislative support and leadership thru gerrymandering.

Additionally, state leadership has “starved the beast” as far as public investment goes for 40 years. The people controlling transportation planning are now developers.

LBJ, Sam Rayburn, and Jake Pickle arent walking thru the door.
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Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1945

Posted
Posted

My last four years with Travis Co Appraisal District:

What they said:

  • Up 13%
  • Up 90%
  • Up 1%
  • Down 17%

What I heard:

  • Up 10%
  • Up 10%
  • Up 10%
  • Up 10%

That's what at least the next 4-5 years are going to look like too.  I got a break when they were going up, up, up but now it's still going up, up, up even with prices going down.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted

Is there a thread already about this?

https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/09/20/mlb-expansion-austin-baseball-commission/75311476007/

Quote

Could Austin eventually have a major league baseball team? The competition to be selected for an expansion franchise is fierce among interested cities and Texas already has two MLB teams, but the Austin Baseball Commission is trying its best to make a case.

The organization, co-founded by local tech sales executive Derrik Fox and Austin native and corporate communications professional Matt Mackowiak, will host a launch party from 12 p.m. to 2 p.m. Saturday that will detail their plan to bring an MLB expansion team to Austin.

The party will be hosted at Buford's, 700 W. 6th St., and will include live music, food trucks and some former University of Texas baseball players.

Whatever the plan is, I guarantee it's not good.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6586

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is there a thread already about this?

https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/09/20/mlb-expansion-austin-baseball-commission/75311476007/

Whatever the plan is, I guarantee it's not good.

The challenge is there is nowhere in Austin to put a stadium. So unless you drop it out by COTA there isn’t a place to set it up. 
 

Also you have Rangers and Astros not that far away. Just don’t see any demand for this here and no place to put a stadium that is remotely cool anyway. 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

The challenge is there is nowhere in Austin to put a stadium. So unless you drop it out by COTA there isn’t a place to set it up. 
 

Also you have Rangers and Astros not that far away. Just don’t see any demand for this here and no place to put a stadium that is remotely cool anyway. 

Yup it's a monorail scam.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:


I guarantee one thing: Mackowiak will make a good chunk of money from the effort.
Grifting is the primary ethos in that particular political camp these days.

The article said some former UT baseball players would be at this dog and pony show. Swindled by Swindell?

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45897

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

The challenge is there is nowhere in Austin to put a stadium. So unless you drop it out by COTA there isn’t a place to set it up.

I'm for it.  I'd put it near Buda, so Austin and San Antonio could both benefit.  Maybe where 45 hits I35.  It's absurd that Texas onlly has 2 MLB teams.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm for it.  I'd put it near Buda, so Austin and San Antonio could both benefit.  Maybe where 45 hits I35.  It's absurd that Texas onlly has 2 MLB teams.

The article says the franchise fee alone is $2B.

Quote

In order for expansion to even be considered, there must be enough ground support and a wealthy ambassador who is willing to back the team. The Rays and Diamondbacks paid $130 million to join back in the '90s. Manfred has suggested that a new team's expansion fee may top $2 billion when all is said and done.

I sure as fuck would not be willing to pay for the stadium and I doubt Buda or San Marcos would approve a tax hike either.

I'd only support it if it's completely funded by the ownership, and I'm sure the Rangers and Astros would throw a shitfit and make things difficult for them.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45897

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

No way MLB should be in central Texas.  Don't invest in a dying sport.

Spend more money on soccer...

Wut?  Are you suggesting we rebuild Q2?  Austin FC pulls 21K per match. An MLB team would probably pull 50% more people every night and do it for 81 games per year, as opposed to 17.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted

I am morbidly curious what their pitch is.

https://www.atxmlb.com/

Quote

MLB Expansion - Why Austin?

Major League Baseball (MLB) has been exploring the possibility of expansion, adding new teams to the league. This would be the first expansion since the Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays were introduced in 1998. Expansion talks have gained momentum with several cities being considered as potential candidates for new franchises.

Cities Being Considered for MLB Expansion

  1. Austin, Texas

  2. Nashville, Tennessee

  3. Portland, Oregon

  4. Salt Lake City, Utah

Austin Deserves to Win

  1. Population Growth and Demographics

    • Austin is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States, with a young and diverse population. The city's growth trajectory ensures a solid fan base for years to come, appealing to both local residents and the broader Texas market.

  2. Economic Strength

    • Austin's robust economy, fueled by technology, education, and a thriving cultural scene, provides a strong financial foundation for sustaining an MLB franchise. The city's economic resilience and high per capita income make it an attractive market for sports investment.

  3. Vibrant Cultural Scene

    • Known as the "Live Music Capital of the World," Austin's cultural vibrancy adds to its appeal. The city's dynamic entertainment and arts scene can synergize with an MLB team, offering a comprehensive entertainment experience for fans.

  4. Sports-Friendly Environment

    • Texas is a state with a rich sports tradition and passionate fan base. Adding an MLB team to Austin would enhance the sports culture, creating new rivalries and increasing overall engagement in the sport. The central location within Texas makes it accessible to fans from other parts of the state.

  5. Lack of Direct Competition

    • While Texas already hosts the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, Austin's geographic location provides a distinct market area. The city's distance from Houston and Dallas allows for a new team to establish its own identity and fan base without significant market overlap.

  6. Potential for New Stadium

    • Austin has the space and resources to build a state-of-the-art stadium, potentially incorporating modern amenities and sustainable design. A new stadium could serve as a multi-use venue, hosting not only baseball games but also concerts and other large events, further integrating the team into the city's cultural fabric.

Austin, Texas stands out as a prime candidate for MLB expansion due to its rapid growth, strong economy, vibrant cultural scene, and sports-friendly environment. With careful planning and investment, an MLB team in Austin could thrive, contributing to the city's dynamic atmosphere and offering a fresh market for Major League Baseball.

That has to be ChatGPT right?

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Bevo

Bevo 13575

Posted
Posted

There was a shitload of homeland security with a drone but no dogs at Brushy Creek looking for a 14yr old asian/Indian boy wearing a light blue shirt. Don't know the story behind it but one of the officers asked us to call 911 if we saw him.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26441

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's a long shot. MLB wants a team in Central Texas and for a long time the expectation was that the Marlins would move to San Antonio and build a new ballpark at the site of the Alamodome. However, with the increasing attractiveness of the Austin Market and brand Austin has an opportunity to make a pitch, but my expectation is that it would go to San Antonio for a wide variety of reasons. 

That said, the success of Austin FC in terms of attendance and demographics has gotten a lot of attenion and there are a couple of really good options for stadium locations in Austin.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's a long shot. MLB wants a team in Central Texas and for a long time the expectation was that the Marlins would move to San Antonio and build a new ballpark at the site of the Alamodome. However, with the increasing attractiveness of the Austin Market and brand Austin has an opportunity to make a pitch, but my expectation is that it would go to San Antonio for a wide variety of reasons. 

That said, the success of Austin FC in terms of attendance and demographics has gotten a lot of attenion and there are a couple of really good options for stadium locations in Austin.

I'll admit that part is fun to think about. I don't think it will ever happen though.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9864

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bevo said:

There was a shitload of homeland security with a drone but no dogs at Brushy Creek looking for a 14yr old asian/Indian boy wearing a light blue shirt. Don't know the story behind it but one of the officers asked us to call 911 if we saw him.

Related?

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/crime/2024/09/22/person-of-interest-detained-in-south-austin-double-homicide/75336930007/

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Bevo

Bevo 13575

Posted
Posted (edited)

Probably unrelated. This was in Cedar Park/N. Austin on Brushy Creek trail and an officer stopped us on our bikes and asked for help, but he didn't tell us ethnicity. Later, we saw three more agents and I asked ethnicity "Hispanic, white, black" and one guy responded Indian or Asian - not very helpful around Avery Ranch but whatever. I also asked if it was a potential abduction and they gave a weird answer like "it's unclear".

One thing that was odd is that it was all homeland security. And it was the first time that I've seen drones used in a search, although I'm sure that it is getting more common.

Edited by Bevo
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ztejas

ztejas 43418

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Not here it wouldn’t. Too many entrenched fans of the rangers or Astros.

This is the main issue imo. Both Texas teams have been good and won titles in the past 5 years. Anyone that cares about baseball is already a fan of one or the other. Or a Yankees fan if they're from the valley. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45897

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ztejas said:

This is the main issue imo. Both Texas teams have been good and won titles in the past 5 years. Anyone that cares about baseball is already a fan of one or the other. Or a Yankees fan if they're from the valley. 

That's not true.  I'm only one voice, but as far as I'm concerned the Rangers and Astros can pound sand after fucking themselves.

You do realize a shit ton of people with high incomes have been moving here over the past couple of decades, right?

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