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What the fuck is wrong with you, Austin?


crash_davis

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

If the city doesn't invest in world class infrastructure now, it will pay world class prices later

A message that was stated -- and ignored (by neighborhood associations who fought every change tooth-and-nail) -- back in the early 80s.  Which was the time to build such things.

We are very, very behind the infrastructure curve, and falling further behind every day.  Everything we do is doomed to be inadequate because it's already too late.  We're fighting a raging fire with a teacup.

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19 minutes ago, PvilleStang said:

The fact that our appraisals have gone DOWN YoY and the net value of our properties have gone down somewhere around 30-40% from their peak (using Zillow estimates of our property values)

I don’t know if I’m confusing you with other posters but I keep seeing this concept put forth and it’s just false (with the caveat that I neither care what Zillow says and using them to bolster the credibility of that argument is about as worthless as quoting an Aggie neighbor).  
 

Home values have not gone down 30%-40%.  They didn’t even do that in 2008 when shit really hit the fan in the property market.  
 

I’m pretty disgusted with the inaccuracy of mass property tax appraisals so I’m sympathetic to complaints about cash-flow volatility, but that’s not an Austin problem.  

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2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t know if I’m confusing you with other posters but I keep seeing this concept put forth and it’s just false (with the caveat that I neither care what Zillow says and using them to bolster the credibility of that argument is about as worthless as quoting an Aggie neighbor).  
 

Home values have not gone down 30%-40%.  They didn’t even do that in 2008 when shit really hit the fan in the property market.  
 

I’m pretty disgusted with the inaccuracy of mass property tax appraisals so I’m sympathetic to complaints about cash-flow volatility, but that’s not an Austin problem.  

They absolutely have gone down.  The county appraisals were more smoothed out from the constant spikes, but our appraised values in TC went way up in 2020 and 2021 after the pandemic shortages and run up, only to come down in value 30-40% of the peak value.  Given the appraisal district only values around the EOY value of the property, and also takes a beating on protests, we've only seen is really plateau and come down 5-10% of the peak value.

And I know the values weren't far off because we bought in 2020, then saw several of our neighbors sell their houses in the last year or two, and the prices pretty much match what Zillow has been estimating.  Only exception to that rule was when we had a neighbor throw in $250K over ask to kill the multi-bid situation (they were coming from San Fran area, go figure).  That one overshot the estimate by a mile.

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On 9/13/2024 at 10:54 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

We meaning the city of Austin not me personally. 
Are you asking why there’s a disconnect between the city’s professional staff and the council? Boy, that could fill volumes, but basically because the voters vote for assholes who throw staff and good work under the bus at the slightest controversy, and you reward them for it. 

 

On 9/14/2024 at 6:43 AM, Bozo_Casanova said:

No. It's more like this:

 

Years zero: Consensus develops that we have an issue on the horizon, council tasks staff and commissions to gather input and develop plans

Year 1: Staff and commissions gather input and develop plans

Year 2: NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council backpedals, tasks commissions and staff to include neighborhood cranks in process

Year 3-5: Staff tweaks plan while waiting out war of attrition between factions participating in the process

Year 4: 1/3 of council is replaced, running on "changing the culture of city hall," and "including the voices of the neighborhoods." New council members appoint neighborhood cranks to key commissions

Year 5: staff and city management bring  compromise plans to council. Council passes on 1st reading, and schedule months of hearings to gather feedback. NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council decides to start over, sends back to staff and commissions to gather input and develop plans

Year 5: staff and commissions develop plans

Year 6: NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council backpedals, tasks commissions and staff to include neighborhood cranks in process

Year 7-9: Staff tweaks plan while waiting out war of attrition between factions participating in the process

Year 8: 1/3 of council is replaced, running on "changing the culture of city hall," and "including the voices of the neighborhoods." New council members appoint neighborhood cranks to key commissions

Year 9: staff and city management bring  compromise plans to council. Council passes on 1st reading, and schedule months of hearings to gather feedback. NEIGHBORS FREAK OUT! Council decides to start over, sends back to staff and commissions to gather input and develop plans

eventually you find yourself in a bond year and whatever bullshit on the table at that moment winds up in front of the public, CHEAPSKATES FREAK OUT, and it's a coin flip from there

repeat ad infinitum

That happens everywhere in every city with any type of proposed change.  But things get done in other cities.  The question should be "why is it different in Austin?" Look I appreciate the work you put in, but you have a severe disdain for the citizens of the city you're trying to improve.  

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That happens everywhere in every city with any type of proposed change.  But things get done in other cities.  The question should be "why is it different in Austin?" Look I appreciate the work you put in, but you have a severe disdain for the citizens of the city you're trying to improve.  

The difference is the historical power structures that each city has to deal with.
No other significant city in Texas has the coalition of entrenched “neighborhood” interests like Austin does. They each have different dynamics/pre-existing power structures that are challenging in their own way, but the neighborhood association dynamic makes Austin particularly dysfunctional.
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1 minute ago, PvilleStang said:

They absolutely have gone down.

Going down in absolute sense and going down 30%-40% is a huge matter of degree, no?  Look, the TCAD values are wildly inexact--you can't use those to presume fair market value, in spite of the Texas Constitution mandate. 

I don't like using sales price as a proxy for value (it's subject to supply distortion), but the Texas A&M home price index shows a price decline of 14% off the peak.  I think that's most heavily felt in the $750K-$1.5m range because those homes are upgrades for most buyers and the potential buyers are locked in to cheaper homes by terrifically low rates.  I don't know what your property's value is but I'd wager if it's between $400K-$500K any value loss is in the single digits. 

Either way, complaining about the city of Austin share of your tax bill while not also putting most of your blame on recapture (if you're getting hit for AISD taxes) is fine, I guess, but the injustice of the latter is in proportion far more offensive to me. 

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1 minute ago, PvilleStang said:

Our residence dropped in value 20% since the peak, while one of our rentals went down 38% since the peak, and another dropped 41% (county, not City of Austin).  The market is CLEARLY in correction phase from the over-valuation.

Are you talking appraised value? The number you get from the appraisal district is not market value.

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Just now, PvilleStang said:

Market, not appraisal.  TCAD will drop an appraisal value as often as aggy wins a national championship in football.

How are you measuring market value? It sounds like you’re using Zillow estimates unless I’m misunderstanding you. Zillow is famously inaccurate with their estimates. I don’t disagree that there’s downward pressure on pricing in Austin, but I haven’t seen any credible data showing 40% decreases.

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7 minutes ago, royiv said:

How are you measuring market value? It sounds like you’re using Zillow estimates unless I’m misunderstanding you. Zillow is famously inaccurate with their estimates. I don’t disagree that there’s downward pressure on pricing in Austin, but I haven’t seen any credible data showing 40% decreases.

This.  I can't say that there's not a home or two, or a small enclave or two, that just happen to be in the worst of all possible places to take that punch.....but no, across the board, we have not seen a 40% drop.  From 22-23, a drop of around 10%.  From 23 to 24, another 2.8%.  Bloomberg says that since the peak housing prices in Austin (which happened in 2022), prices have dropped 18% as of this April (doubt they've dropped another 22% in the last 4 months).

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34 minutes ago, PvilleStang said:

Market, not appraisal.  TCAD will drop an appraisal value as often as aggy wins a national championship in football.

So you've tried to sell them, then?  No other method is going to determine market value with the accuracy you're citing. 

 

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

From 22-23, a drop of around 10%.  From 23 to 24, another 2.8%

If you believe the Texas A&M Real Estate Center index, sales prices have actually gone up in '24 (every quarter). 

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31 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

So you've tried to sell them, then?  No other method is going to determine market value with the accuracy you're citing. 

Actually, we did try selling one of the properties earlier this year, and it fell right in line with the market estimates.

 

That said, I'm completely in agreement there.  The Austin market is mostly driven by the Lakeway / Westlake / Terrytown bored housewives / Realtor initiative.  And I couldn't be happier that the association of Realtors were gifted that huge punch in the junk recently.  I really struggle to find how a realtor ever acts in the best interest of a buyer, all the while having their income driven by a percentage of the purchase price.  Their incentivized to ratchet every dollar they can out of the buyer.  How else can they afford their G-Wagons and Lexuses.  

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1 minute ago, PvilleStang said:

I really struggle to find how a realtor ever acts in the best interest of a buyer, all the while having their income driven by a percentage of the purchase price.  Their incentivized to ratchet every dollar they can out of the buyer.  How else can they afford their G-Wagons and Lexuses.  

This belongs better on the real estate thread, but I think the ethical conflict is more obvious on the seller side-if I’m an agent I’m more likely to move an under priced house than trying to maximize the price (which obviously is the goal for most sellers).  Moreover, my time is finite so the more of it I spend working towards that higher price, the lower the return on said time.  
 

As far as the cars, the tax code is VERY realtor friendly.  I’ve had realtors send me prelim tax returns showing $20k in yearly AGI and they can also make it show $120k in AGI because of all the eligible deductions.  I’m actually kind of surprised we aren’t all realtors just to reap the tax advantages.  

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A message that was stated -- and ignored (by neighborhood associations who fought every change tooth-and-nail) -- back in the early 80s.  Which was the time to build such things.
We are very, very behind the infrastructure curve, and falling further behind every day.  Everything we do is doomed to be inadequate because it's already too late.  We're fighting a raging fire with a teacup.

A larger issue most recently is that Austin lost federal and state legislative support and leadership thru gerrymandering.

Additionally, state leadership has “starved the beast” as far as public investment goes for 40 years. The people controlling transportation planning are now developers.

LBJ, Sam Rayburn, and Jake Pickle arent walking thru the door.
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My last four years with Travis Co Appraisal District:

What they said:

  • Up 13%
  • Up 90%
  • Up 1%
  • Down 17%

What I heard:

  • Up 10%
  • Up 10%
  • Up 10%
  • Up 10%

That's what at least the next 4-5 years are going to look like too.  I got a break when they were going up, up, up but now it's still going up, up, up even with prices going down.

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