What the fuck is wrong with you, Austin?

[MrBig 5290]

I live in a “shitty” part of town, and the cops were dragging ass to come out when my house got broken into 4 years ago. APD has always not given a shit about crime like this, but all of a sudden it’s a problem because people with money are getting robbed too.

And the crime in my shitty area has actually gotten better. Because criminals know we don’t have shit and are now targeting people who do. That’s why all of a sudden the crime issue has become a major problem for the city. 

 

[TwiceHorn 31288]

25 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

News flash, austin has higher than average property crime which the police never investigate much less solve, and much lower than average violent crime which the police usually investigate and sometimes solve.

Same as it ever was. 

But what about the crimes all the APD swoop in with their capes mid-commission and slay all the bad guys (and dogs)???

[bolverk 29405]

Lots of good data and opinions in this story, including a few on Mack Mackowiak's “safe city standard” of 2 cops per 1,000 residents.

https://www.kut.org/austin/2021-11-01/austin-proposition-a-mandate-minimum-apd-staffing-2021-elections

 

[crash_davis 23084]

i'm indifferent.

prop a passes, yay more nazi assholes, but maybe crime will go down and some crimes may eventually be solved. i laughed typing that.

prop a doesn't pass, yay fewer nazi assholes and the crime rate stays exactly the same as before.

 

pass prop a and kick out the fucking homeless. that i would vote for. win/win for everyone.

 

 

[TKthunder2 4981]

14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Lots of good data and opinions in this story, including a few on Mack Mackowiak's “safe city standard” of 2 cops per 1,000 residents.

https://www.kut.org/austin/2021-11-01/austin-proposition-a-mandate-minimum-apd-staffing-2021-elections

 

Makes Matt Mackowiak look like a giant dumbass but also highlights that his position is not completely incorrect even though they don’t seem to acknowledge that.  The city should be help accountable but they won’t be.

2012 recommended adding more officers that would have equaled 2.11 officers per 1000 residents 

2020 Austin was at 1.6 officers per 1000 residents and falling

[bolverk 29405]

11 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Makes Matt Mackowiak look like a giant dumbass but also highlights that his position is not completely incorrect even though they don’t seem to acknowledge that.  The city should be help accountable but they won’t be.

2012 recommended adding more officers that would have equaled 2.11 officers per 1000 residents 

2020 Austin was at 1.6 officers per 1000 residents and falling

One puzzling thing is that last chart where the number of employed cops began to fall in 2018 before any of this debate, yet the budget for more cops increased. Indeed, the City has consistently had a budget allowing for well over the number of cops who are employed.

This tells me the budget is not the *primary* driver for any cop shortfall in Austin.

[Wally Pryor 5244]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Murder rate per 100,000 in Austin from the data provided at the KXAN link above.

 

 

Thanks for the post.  Had not seen these figures.  

I don't know what the national average is per 100K but '21 is going to be up significantly w/ the city on pace for 85 murders or so. But, yeah, I still feel safe as well. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

2010 was popping 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

15 hours ago, bolverk said:

Murder rate per 100,000 in Austin from the data provided at the KXAN link above.

Yeah, it's gone up the last few years, but it's not like murder is running rampant. Yes, 2021 will be higher, but I still feel very safe in this town, especially in comparison to other big metros.

 

Comparing Austin to Detroit and Chicago should not be the bar on whether they are doing well or not. We should compare ourselves to past performance IMO or at least similar cities that exist in similar parts of the country.

Maybe it exists but it would be interesting to see the crime rate broke into smaller chunks (neighborhoods, zip, areas). Saying the city if safer overall is great but in reality it might be way worse off in you live in 78702 versus 78703.

[Helobious 9481]

Jesus those homicide rates are nothing. Dallas, SA, and Houston are all well over double Austin’s 2020 rate, in an average year. Can’t imagine how much larger they were last year.

[crash_davis 23084]

1 hour ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Saying the city if safer overall is great but in reality it might be way worse off in you live in 78702 versus 78703.

you can say this about any city. i blame poor people.

i'd like to see a study to link increase in crime in Austin area due to the reduced APD budget. murder is up pretty much everywhere in the US. to blame Austin murder rate increase due of budget cuts is a stretch.

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/953254623/massive-1-year-rise-in-homicide-rates-collided-with-the-pandemic-in-2020

 

[Brisketexan 104629]

49 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

i'd like to see a study to link increase in crime in Austin area due to the reduced APD budget.

There isn't one.  Especially when you see crime rates going up in numerous places that did NOT have significant budget cuts.

The data over the years is pretty clear: except for targeted "surges" of police in very specific locations (e.g., saturating a particular neighborhood with cops for a period of time), "more cops" does not directly lead to reduced crime.  In order to reach a number of cops sufficient to suppress crime materially, you'd need more cops than any place can possibly afford (you can't have a patrol car on literally every street corner).

Policing is part of the mix, of course.  But trends in crime rates -- both down and up -- show little correlation in the number of police on the ground.  The very fact that many of those trends are nationwide puts the lie to that.  It tells us that trends in crime numbers are much more correlated to broad issues across society as a whole.  Poverty, desperation, failing institutions and education, etc. etc.....THOSE are the biggest drivers of crime (and likewise, prosperity, opportunity, improved education, etc. are proven drivers to reduce crime).  Nothing's perfect, there is no one cure.  We need police, we always will.  But they are but a piece of the overall puzzle.

[crash_davis 23084]

ok so i'm late to this. so the uproar is from the 2021 budget defunding of $150M resulting in a $309M 2021 budget. however the 2022 budget is back over $443M, higher than what it was in 2020 before the defunding took place.

sooooooo.....why is save austin now bullshitting about decreased budget? it's back to normal run rates.

fuck SAN assholes. until just now, i hadn't decided which way to vote but fuck Prop A.

someone clear this up for me if i'm reading the budgets wrong.

Edited October 26, 2021 by crash_davis

[freyguy 4245]

Anyone comparing quarantine murder rates to current murder rates has a learning disability.  Please strike 2H2019-1H2021 from the data...

(has it been that long?)

Edited October 26, 2021 by freyguy

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Neighborhoods that can afford it should hire their own private security.

My neighborhood in Houston had always had off duty HPD as security.  They were worthless and you would see them maybe once a month on your street.  They were supposed to be basically 16 hours a day paid.  We had so many break ins.  Thieves would knock on front door, and if no one answered, they would go around back and kick in the back door.

Every since we went with private security due to all the break ins, we basically never have any now.  I see the armed security guard, who also has a K9, multiple times per day.  He (or his replacement) is constantly patrolling.  I have no idea if he is competent if something were to happen, but the constant presence has made a huge difference.

[Neonmoon 38127]

If almost as if increasing the number of unemployed by 16 million in a span of a couple of months had some consequences

No work, food, or beer make Homer go something something

[bolverk 29405]

3 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Comparing Austin to Detroit and Chicago should not be the bar on whether they are doing well or not. We should compare ourselves to past performance IMO or at least similar cities that exist in similar parts of the country.

Maybe it exists but it would be interesting to see the crime rate broke into smaller chunks (neighborhoods, zip, areas). Saying the city if safer overall is great but in reality it might be way worse off in you live in 78702 versus 78703.

Okay, let's compare Austin to a basket full of cities across the country and see how it looks (2020 murder data are from Crash's NPR link with the 2020 Census count to get the rate per 100,000).

 

[Bevo 13527]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If almost as if increasing the number of unemployed by 16 million in a span of a couple of months had some consequences

No work, food, or beer make Homer go something something

Yeah, let's do that and cut the police force at the same time.

[Homercles 10205]

I was told Chicago was a murderous hell hole and it’s not top ten?  
 

Glad to see someone keeping Baltimore at the top after Chris Partlow got got.  Wonder how those vacants are looking about now. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Homercles

[Js1 85115]

35 minutes ago, freyguy said:

Anyone comparing quarantine murder rates to current murder rates has a learning disability.  Please strike 2H2019-1H2021 from the data...

(has it been that long?)

This shit did not start 2H 2019.  More like 2Q 2020 to 1H 2021. 

[Wally Pryor 5244]

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Okay, let's compare Austin to a basket full of cities across the country and see how it looks (2020 murder data are from Crash's NPR link with the 2020 Census count to get the rate per 100,000).

 

Thanks, great info.  For '21 Austin will be in the 9% range and not sure what the #s look like this year for the other cities.

Regardless, we're still pretty low. 

[Wally Pryor 5244]

38 minutes ago, freyguy said:

Anyone comparing quarantine murder rates to current murder rates has a learning disability.  Please strike 2H2019-1H2021 from the data...

(has it been that long?)

Learning disability? 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Okay, let's compare Austin to a basket full of cities across the country and see how it looks (2020 murder data are from Crash's NPR link with the 2020 Census count to get the rate per 100,000).

 

Well this does show Austin in a really good light. 

To the point about budget being back to levels from 2 years ago, it's not crazy to think we would need more budget considering more people and rising costs of the last two years. Maybe it's just Save Austin Now talking points but it's still concerning to hear from the city that we should no longer call 911 and instead call 311 and prepare to wait or leave a message. Is this something that all cities are now experiencing and just par for the course... or is Austin mismanaging the budget they do have?

If I have 400M to spend, I do think using it towards protecting all citizens of Austin is a better use of that then just trying to house 3000 homeless. 

[SHOOTER12 8789]

On 10/24/2021 at 4:48 PM, demos said:

Firefighters won’t shoot you though.

Maybe not, but they'll hose your dog...

[bolverk 29405]

5 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Thanks, great info.  For '21 Austin will be in the 9% range and not sure what the #s look like this year for the other cities.

Regardless, we're still pretty low. 

From the previous page, I posted a story from KXAN. Here's what it says we're at right now:

In 1984, Roberts says there were 59 homicides in Austin. For reference, the homicide rate was much higher that year, because the population was a lot lower. Roberts says that year, there were 13.2 homicides per 100,000 people, while Austin’s homicide rate so far this year is 6.2 per 100,000.

 

So, yeah, it's not great. That article showed 60 murders so far this year as of Sept. 13. By my quick count from here, it looks like we've had 11 more since then which would put us at 7.38 so far this year. Anything above 87 would put us at 9.00 (but that would be using 2020 Census figures - no estimates for 2021 are available yet and the City has surely grown). Let's say 90 murders to be on the safe side to reach your estimate. 

No idea what's going on elsewhere but figure it's the same.

[Wally Pryor 5244]

24 minutes ago, bolverk said:

From the previous page, I posted a story from KXAN. Here's what it says we're at right now:

In 1984, Roberts says there were 59 homicides in Austin. For reference, the homicide rate was much higher that year, because the population was a lot lower. Roberts says that year, there were 13.2 homicides per 100,000 people, while Austin’s homicide rate so far this year is 6.2 per 100,000.

 

So, yeah, it's not great. That article showed 60 murders so far this year as of Sept. 13. By my quick count from here, it looks like we've had 11 more since then which would put us at 7.38 so far this year. Anything above 87 would put us at 9.00 (but that would be using 2020 Census figures - no estimates for 2021 are available yet and the City has surely grown). Let's say 90 murders to be on the safe side to reach your estimate. 

No idea what's going on elsewhere but figure it's the same.

I think we're at 71 or 72 so 85+ for the year, looks like. 

Hopefully lower but trending that direction. 

[freyguy 4245]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

This shit did not start 2H 2019.  More like 2Q 2020 to 1H 2021. 

clearly I have a memory disability....fair nuff.  My rant still stands...in my mind.

[KaiserSoze 997]

2 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

but it's still concerning to hear from the city that we should no longer call 911 and instead call 311 and prepare to wait or leave a message.

None of this is a change in how they respond, the only difference is now they're just being honest about the fact that they're not really gonna do anything unless it is a real emergency (a robbery that already happened is not an emergency).

Your "concern" simply shows that you had no idea how things were already being handled.

 

[hayden_horn 11360]

49 minutes ago, KaiserSoze said:

None of this is a change in how they respond, the only difference is now they're just being honest about the fact that they're not really gonna do anything unless it is a real emergency (a robbery that already happened is not an emergency).

Your "concern" simply shows that you had no idea how things were already being handled.

 

[Brisketexan 104629]

Apparently, the nazis are back at Mopac and Far West.

[Neonmoon 38127]

29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Apparently, the nazis are back at Mopac and Far West.

Were they threatening castration?

 

[Pasken 1309]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Apparently, the nazis are back at Mopac and Far West.

I bet they have an Air B n B somewhere. 

[crash_davis 23084]

saw a post on Nextdoor that they were at Desano's on Burnet the other day. they may be crashing somewhere around there. poster said they were in a white van with Florida plates.

Florida....

 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

2 hours ago, KaiserSoze said:

None of this is a change in how they respond, the only difference is now they're just being honest about the fact that they're not really gonna do anything unless it is a real emergency (a robbery that already happened is not an emergency).

Your "concern" simply shows that you had no idea how things were already being handled.

 

For sure... i'm only had to call 911 a few times over the last few years and both times I did have an officer there within 30 min or so. But this being recent or something that's been happening for years shouldn't matter. Either way it does feel like it's something that will make the city unsafer. The city is now announcing to all the crooks out there there might not even be a response... so go ahead and rob that house. To me, making that response time faster sounds like a better use of funds.

[KaiserSoze 997]

12 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

The city is now announcing to all the crooks out there there might not even be a response... so go ahead and rob that house. To me, making that response time faster sounds like a better use of funds.

The crooks have known this for ages, this isn't a new practice by APD.

Also, the city didn't make the announcement- APD did and it was timed to manipulate you into voting for Prop A. Prop A passing will not change how APD responds to your calls.

[Eskimohorn 5615]

Apparently, the nazis are back at Mopac and Far West.

Caused nice 10-15 minute traffic delay. APD was on the scene…2 miles down the road when traffic lightened up, so they could give motorists speeding tickets.

That’s gonna be no on Prop A

[ZB'Tejas 593]

2 minutes ago, KaiserSoze said:

The crooks have known this for ages, this isn't a new practice by APD.

Also, the city didn't make the announcement- APD did and it was timed to manipulate you into voting for Prop A. Prop A passing will not change how APD responds to your calls.

Joseph Chacon has said he is against Prop A no? To be clear i'm not saying Prop A is the answer. I don't know what the answer is. However I see the city wanting to spend 400M to help 3000 homeless so they are just as responsible with their dumb spending choices

[Pasken 1309]

Do y'all think it's likely there are a decent amount of voters who voted for the camping ban that will vote against Prop A?

[Brisketexan 104629]

The crooks have known this for ages, this isn't a new practice by APD.
Also, the city didn't make the announcement- APD did and it was timed to manipulate you into voting for Prop A. Prop A passing will not change how APD responds to your calls.

This. If that announcement influences your vote AT ALL, you’re getting played. By the cops. Pretty pathetic.

Oh, and the cops didn’t even bother to show up to deal with the Nazis who were backing up traffic today. I guess they already gave em an “atta boy” the other day, so no need to follow up.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

4 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Do y'all think it's likely there are a decent amount of voters who voted for the camping ban that will vote against Prop A?

They should have just campaigned that voting for Prop A will mean the city can now start really enforcing the camping ban... 

I drove down Pleasant Valley just south of the river along the running trail and it looks like a fucking Boy Scout campground out there 

[Cap33 381]

7 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Do y'all think it's likely there are a decent amount of voters who voted for the camping ban that will vote against Prop A?

Yes. Most people I know voted for Prop B (camping ban), but I'd say about half of those are either on the fence on Prop A or outright against it. Sure, it's a small sample size, but I don't think it passes.

[SquishMitten 10401]

I live in a “shitty” part of town, and the cops were dragging ass to come out when my house got broken into 4 years ago. APD has always not given a shit about crime like this, but all of a sudden it’s a problem because people with money are getting robbed too.
And the crime in my shitty area has actually gotten better. Because criminals know we don’t have shit and are now targeting people who do. That’s why all of a sudden the crime issue has become a major problem for the city. 
 

No. Rich people have always gotten robbed also. Prop A is a solution to a problem that was fabricated to create Prop A

[SquishMitten 10401]

For sure... i'm only had to call 911 a few times over the last few years and both times I did have an officer there within 30 min or so. But this being recent or something that's been happening for years shouldn't matter. Either way it does feel like it's something that will make the city unsafer. The city is now announcing to all the crooks out there there might not even be a response... so go ahead and rob that house. To me, making that response time faster sounds like a better use of funds.

Sorry if my interpretation isn’t what you are trying to say… but what the fuck does this even mean? If there’s an emergency that requires a cop ASAP, then call 911 and they’ll be there ASAP. If it’s not an emergency and doesn’t require a cop ASAP, then call 311, and they’ll be there eventually. That’s how it always should’ve been. It should actually make response time a hell of a lot faster since dispatchers won’t be wasting time with calls that should’ve been to 311.

[pantone159 712]

23 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Do y'all think it's likely there are a decent amount of voters who voted for the camping ban that will vote against Prop A?

Well I am one at least. Both were an easy decision for me.

[crash_davis 23084]

Only way I'm voting for Prop A is if the police promise to abuse the homeless and drive them out of here. I'd mandate quarterly police brutality by homeless claims metrics to releasing of funding. Otherwise fuck supporting nazis.

[Wally Pryor 5244]

Shitload of funding being pumped into Prop A.  Had no idea both PACs were raising this kind of money. 

 

AAS:

According to campaign finance records due Monday, the Equity PAC, which is linked to the “No Way on Prop A” campaign, reported $1,064,727.41 in political contributions from Sept. 24 thru Oct. 23, according to documents filed with the city. Save Austin Now, the political action committee that collected signatures to get the police staffing measure on the Nov. 2 ballot, reported raising $1,013,896.86 during the same period, according to documents filed with the city. 

The Equity PAC reported that $960,000 of the money it raised in this most recent reporting period came from corporations or labor organizations, including a previously reported $500,000 contribution from billionaire activist George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. No Way on Prop A supporters have cited this as evidence of one of the largest and most diverse coalitions of organizations coming together to oppose the measure.

Save Austin Now co-founder Matt Mackowiak said the majority of the money raised by his group came from individuals and businesses in the Austin area, citing more 1,900 individual donations. Among the donors to Save Austin Now were Whole Foods CEO John Mackey, who gave $10,000, and Phil Canfield, CEO of Austin-based Ariet Capital, who gave $75,000, according to documents filed with the city.

 

 

 

[Homercles 10205]

Are there even an eager group of people out there trying to become cops in Austin?  Say this passes…where do they get the manpower?   They can’t even staff restaurants at the time. 
 

I don’t live in Austin else I’d be going out of my way to vote against this shit

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

9 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Are there even an eager group of people out there trying to become cops in Austin?  Say this passes…where do they get the manpower?   They can’t even staff restaurants at the time. 
 

I don’t live in Austin else I’d be going out of my way to vote against this shit

The canceled cadet classes weren’t empty at the time…

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

20 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Shitload of funding being pumped into Prop A.  Had no idea both PACs were raising this kind of money. 

 

AAS:

According to campaign finance records due Monday, the Equity PAC, which is linked to the “No Way on Prop A” campaign, reported $1,064,727.41 in political contributions from Sept. 24 thru Oct. 23, according to documents filed with the city. Save Austin Now, the political action committee that collected signatures to get the police staffing measure on the Nov. 2 ballot, reported raising $1,013,896.86 during the same period, according to documents filed with the city. 

The Equity PAC reported that $960,000 of the money it raised in this most recent reporting period came from corporations or labor organizations, including a previously reported $500,000 contribution from billionaire activist George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. No Way on Prop A supporters have cited this as evidence of one of the largest and most diverse coalitions of organizations coming together to oppose the measure.

Save Austin Now co-founder Matt Mackowiak said the majority of the money raised by his group came from individuals and businesses in the Austin area, citing more 1,900 individual donations. Among the donors to Save Austin Now were Whole Foods CEO John Mackey, who gave $10,000, and Phil Canfield, CEO of Austin-based Ariet Capital, who gave $75,000, according to documents filed with the city.

 

 

 

Great. Local Austin citizens vs powerful lobbying group from out of the city and state. 

[Wally Pryor 5244]

12 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

They should have just campaigned that voting for Prop A will mean the city can now start really enforcing the camping ban... 

I drove down Pleasant Valley just south of the river along the running trail and it looks like a fucking Boy Scout campground out there 

There have been some bigger spaces cleaned out (Manchaca / Ben White) but almost 180 days into the "ban" there are still people camping everywhere. And that's not going away. If you believe the Austin city council will allow Chacon to fully "enforce" the ban then you also believe the Easter Bunny will be at your doorstep in April. 

Save Austin Now supposedly filed some lawsuit to enforce the ban but that's a fart in the wind (if the lawsuit was ever filed to begin with).