Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[mdmost 42997]

I think we'll see a dissolution of the Pac 12 before we'll see additions of any Big 12 teams. I think it's more likely USC, Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Colorado, and Utah head to the Big 10 to form a 20 team conference. Maybe then the remaining Pac 12 schools could merge with the remaining Big 12 schools. I highly doubt USC is going to want to add Lubbock or Stillwater to their footprint. Another thing is the GOR for the Pac 12 is up in 2024. 

I say all that with the idea that the Pac 12 isn't going to get a better TV deal with the addition of Tech and oSu. Yeah, USC won't want to go to Champagne, IL or Iowa but the  money would be a lot better for USC in the Big 10. 

Edited July 25, 2021 by mdmost

[oSuJeff97 3435]

4 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think the Big Ten is done reaching. They should have learned their lesson with Rutgers. Adding OK State doesn't deliver the OKC market. Just as adding Tech doesn't deliver the Dallas market. I think the Big Ten could stand pat. I'm not sure KU Basketball means as much to the Big Ten as we think it does. 

It’s not about “adding markets”, it’s about adding incremental viewers where you can. All of the “elite” programs have a home, so if the end game is 16- or 20-team “super conferences” you would be smart to add the best non-elite programs you can to round out your conference.

OSU has consistently had the 3rd highest football ratings in the Big 12 after OU/Texas. It’s a solid “non-elite” add to any conference.  IF you think the end game is three or four super conferences and you’re not already maxed out on members, I’d think you’d seriously consider adding OSU.

[oSuJeff97 3435]

And if the idea is that the PAC and B1G somehow merge and make themselves into a 20-team conference, it seems somewhat probable that the SEC may want to add four more teams to be on equal ground. In that case, I think it would be somewhat likely that at least OSU and Tech may end up in the SEC… maybe KU and KSU if they aren’t part of the B1G.

[JimmyJames 12271]

13 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Pistols Firing has some interesting stuff. SIAP

https://pistolsfiringblog.com

 

That guys ranking of the desirability of the remaining schools is absurd. Baylor number 3? OSU number one? West Virginia number 8? That’s a joke. 

[mdmost 42997]

Wilner is a pretty good follow for all things Pac 12;

 

[David Dennison 18841]

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Wilner is a pretty good follow for all things Pac 12;

 

The whole "Texas doesn't fit the SEC culturally" argument is bizarre to me.

Any Texas fan who has been to an SEC game in an SEC stadium knows that Texas will fit in just fine with the SEC. 

[Moby Ric 2058]

13 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Pistols Firing has some interesting stuff. SIAP

https://pistolsfiringblog.com

 

That guy is fucking high.  

[Nicole44 22056]

Just now, Moby Ric said:

That guy is fucking high.  

(From my favorite TV show: What we do in the shadows)

 

[mdmost 42997]

Quote

1. Oklahoma State

This might come off as biased,

[JimmyJames 12271]

11 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

That guy is fucking high.  

What? You don’t think both Baylor and Kansas state are more valuable than Kansas and West Virginia? Lol

[Vertigo 20276]

34 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Wilner is a pretty good follow for all things Pac 12;

 

I love how this is being portrayed as Texas being greedy again. OU was an equal part, and depending on who you believe, may have initiated the idea. They somehow get a pass, but the truth is Texas and OU are striking preemptively to secure their long term futures in the new landscape. The SEC and ESPN will be the 800 lb gorilla, as they want to be, the schools will vote 14-0 to admit because they will all make more money. But this is just Texas being Texas again.

[SimkinsMan 4385]

Analysis of how a larger battle between ESPN and FOX may ultimately drive the dregs of the Big XII to the AAC.

https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/aac-big-12-expansion-espn.html

[Nivek 16916]

39 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

And if the idea is that the PAC and B1G somehow merge and make themselves into a 20-team conference, it seems somewhat probable that the SEC may want to add four more teams to be on equal ground. In that case, I think it would be somewhat likely that at least OSU and Tech may end up in the SEC… maybe KU and KSU if they aren’t part of the B1G.

With some of the concern about Texas trying to take over the SEC by some of the lesser members of the SEC already, I cannot imagine they would really want to add 2 members from a single state, or have 5 members from a single region.   

[mdmost 42997]

2 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I love how this is being portrayed as Texas being greedy again. OU was an equal part, and depending on who you believe, may have initiated the idea. They somehow get a pass, but the truth is Texas and OU are striking preemptively to secure their long term futures in the new landscape. The SEC and ESPN will be the 800 lb gorilla, as they want to be, the schools will vote 14-0 to admit because they will all make more money. But this is just Texas being Texas again.

Ah, who cares? We're greedy. It's true. OU is greedy too. We're everyone's bad guy. The Pac 12 guys are bitter because they know Texas and OU were their last, best shot to stay relevant. Now that's all over and the die-hard Pac 8ers are going to scoff at Tech, oSu, Iowa State, and others as not being worthy of their vaunted Pac 12. Larry Scott absolutely destroyed that conference by not accepting the LHN. It would've solved all their problems and prevented the exact realignment destruction we're all about to witness. 

[Laxtonto 12078]

Scary part with this is what this does to the potential coaching talent available next offseason. Lots of people would have to make a “career” decision, and some schools may need to talk about how do we fund our FB program and coaching staff with the B12 check…

 

If ISU, WVU, and OSU are still in limbo regarding a landing spot, Campbell, Brown, and Gundu have to look around.

KU and KSU, who the fuck knows.

TT and Baylor, who fucking cares..

And does Fat Pat consider retirement instead of riding off to the AAC or MWC?

[ousux 5595]

The 'Clones would fit perfect the B10.  Land Grant school, Busch Light, corn-fed women.  But I wonder if Iowa would push back?  There are good reasons to wanna be the only B1G school in your State.

Iowa may be ags but they aren't aggy. Having said thats, no idea if they try to block or not.

[JimmyJames 12271]

51 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Wilner is a pretty good follow for all things Pac 12;

 

He is and he’s been a great source for watching how badly Larry Scott screwed up the PAC 12 with his bungling of the PAC 12 network rollout. I remember watching it in real time as Scott got checkmated by Comcast and doomed the network right from the start.
 

It was also incredibly dumb to try a new network in a tough college sports market like the west coast with the conference owning it 100 percent. ESPN and Fox sure noticed that and had no incentive to help it succeed like Fox did with the BIG network. 

The moral of the story. Never trust a cable company. 

[Not a Sock 2311]

1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

It’s not about “adding markets”, it’s about adding incremental viewers where you can. All of the “elite” programs have a home, so if the end game is 16- or 20-team “super conferences” you would be smart to add the best non-elite programs you can to round out your conference.

OSU has consistently had the 3rd highest football ratings in the Big 12 after OU/Texas. It’s a solid “non-elite” add to any conference.  IF you think the end game is three or four super conferences and you’re not already maxed out on members, I’d think you’d seriously consider adding OSU.

Have the highest viewership outside of OU/UT games is a low fucking bar. Non OU/UT big12 games struggled to break a million viewers and many didn’t break 750k that’s fucking terrible.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Not a Sock

[Neonmoon 38129]

Kansas has the biggest TV market of teams left. 

[mdmost 42997]

Relevant part:

Quote

Conference realignment ahead?

How does the Pac-12 -- or any Power Five conference -- react to the SEC's apparent raid of Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12?

The current Pac-12 television deal has three more years to run. While the league is expected to get a bump in its media rights, even if it stands pat, is there a group of schools from perhaps a wounded Big 12 that make sense? Scott made a bold play 11 years ago trying to steal away half the Big 12, including Texas and Oklahoma. It didn't work at the time, but is the climate favorable now with widespread realignment expected?

One TV media rights insider said there's no value in, say, taking Texas Tech and Oklahoma State from the Big 12. Regardless, the coming realignment is going to be an immediate test of Kliavkoff's ability to think on his feet.

He recently said the Pac-12 is "an exclusive club with high barrier for entry."

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

If the PAC isn’t growing, it’s dying 

[mdmost 42997]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If the PAC isn’t growing, it’s dying 

True but adding Big 12 remnants that don't give enough value to renegotiate a TV deal isn't going to help them. That's why I said, it's probably going to just dissolve because the LA schools and Oregon can make more money elsewhere. 

[LTtxfan 49141]

8 minutes ago, mdmost said:

True but adding Big 12 remnants that don't give enough value to renegotiate a TV deal isn't going to help them. That's why I said, it's probably going to just dissolve because the LA schools and Oregon can make more money elsewhere. 

If 20 is the target number, makes sense for B10 to go after Notre Dame, USC, UCLA and Oregon.  We'll probably even see several  ACC teams poached by either the SEC or BIG 10.

So 6 more new members for the BIG 10, and 4 more new members for the SEC...

Possible Targets

• Notre Dame
• Clemson
• USC
• UCLA
• Oregon
• Brigham Young
• Florida State
• Miami
• Pittsburgh
• Virginia Tech or Virginia
• North Carolina
• Boston College

 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9323]

25 minutes ago, mdmost said:

True but adding Big 12 remnants that don't give enough value to renegotiate a TV deal isn't going to help them. That's why I said, it's probably going to just dissolve because the LA schools and Oregon can make more money elsewhere. 

Yep. If the Pac does add Tech and oSu in an attempt to keep the conference together in 6-8 years USC, UCLA, Oregon and Stanford et al are simply going along to buy time to work out the details for their inevitable joint venture with the B10.

 

[LTtxfan 49141]

Thx for this @Vic Mackey

Edited July 25, 2021 by LTtxfan

[CooterBrown 18002]

If these schools were smart, they’d wait until the day after the two $70M checks clear before announcing their moves.

Narrator: They’re not.

[LTtxfan 49141]

20 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

If 20 is the target number, makes sense for B10 to go after Notre Dame, USC, UCLA and Oregon.  We'll probably even see several  ACC teams poached by either the SEC or BIG 10.  So 6 more new members for the BIG 10, and 4 more new members for the SEC...   Possible Targets

• Notre Dame
• Clemson
• USC
• UCLA
• Oregon
• Brigham Young
• Florida State
• Miami
• Pittsburgh
• Virginia Tech or Virginia
• North Carolina
• Boston College

 

 

Power Two...

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by LTtxfan

[Moby Ric 2058]

Well giving it some thought and since I know absolutely nothing on this I am going to take a shot at a possible happening.

UT, OU - SEC obviously

I St, KU, KSU, OSU - Big 10 seems like a good fit for these schools.

Tech, UH - PAC 12 Yep UH, grab a share of both the Dallas and Houston TV markets.  

WVU - ACC or Big 10 but most likely ACC.

baylor, tcu - nobody cares, but C USA is where I think they go.

Big 12 is dead man walking.

[TKthunder2 4985]

3 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

And if the idea is that the PAC and B1G somehow merge and make themselves into a 20-team conference, it seems somewhat probable that the SEC may want to add four more teams to be on equal ground. In that case, I think it would be somewhat likely that at least OSU and Tech may end up in the SEC… maybe KU and KSU if they aren’t part of the B1G.

No, the SEC will not add Tech or OSU.  The only possible Big12 team would be Kansas for its basketball/market and history with Mizzou.

The SEC is done expanding unless a team adds value, there are not many of those left.  Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State, Norte Dame, Florida State/Miami, Clemson, UNC, Duke (maybe, see Kansas), UVA.  There are some others that could bring value under the right circumstances (most West coast and 2nd tier BigTen schools) but the ones above are slam dunks.

[billfromlaketravis 11445]

22 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

Well giving it some thought and since I know absolutely nothing on this I am going to take a shot at a possible happening.

UT, OU - SEC obviously

I St, KU, KSU, OSU - Big 10 seems like a good fit for these schools.

Tech, UH - PAC 12 Yep UH, grab a share of both the Dallas and Houston TV markets.  

WVU - ACC or Big 10 but most likely ACC.

baylor, tcu - nobody cares, but C USA is where I think they go.

Big 12 is dead man walking.

The only person in Houston that gives a shit about UofH Football is Matt Thomas. 

[Moby Ric 2058]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Cougar High gets a share of Dallas TV market?  KSU and OSU a B1G fit?  Lulz.

Edit: I think he misread your post - Tech would get Dallas. UH will never gain admittance into P12 and KSU/OSU will never get into B10. 

No professor. UH is in Houston, Houston TV's.  Tech has a large part of the DFW market.  Huge alumni base there.

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

If ISU, WVU, and OSU are still in limbo regarding a landing spot, Campbell Brown, and Gundu have to look around.

Edited July 25, 2021 by clapclapclap

[clapclapclap 9000]

7 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The only person in Houston that gives a shit about UofH Football is Matt Thomas. 

And Icono

[Js1 85260]

3 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

And Icono

The Houston sports media full of aggy jizzing themselves when UH is good. They practically fellated Sampson last March like he invented NCAA basketball. 

They we’re insufferable during the Herman Coog era 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Js1

[dark54555 72]

2 20 team superconferences being left standing at the end of the day doesn't seem that unrealistic at this point.

SEC + TX/OU + 4 ACC pickups (Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and UNC or BC)

B1G + ND + Kansas* + 4 PAC Pickups (USC, UCLA, Oregon**, Washington)

 

Then everyone left over scrambles to reshuffle into something that makes sense as a second tier (mostly the left out P5 schools) and a third tier (everyone else). But question whether the SEC and B1G don't just become their own league and say FU to the NCAA at that point. Also possible a couple of the B1Gs get jettisoned here (looking at you Rutgers and Maryand) in favor of others. 

*I'm including Kansas instead of a 5th PAC for a couple reasons: basketball, KC TV market, splits some of the geographic difference.  They're terrible at football, but with the other shifts, they could maybe attract some better talent away from the next tier of schools.
**Because Nike.

[ztejas 43411]

9 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

Tech has a large part of the DFW market.  

They really don't. If I'm at a bar in DFW and someone asks to put on a shitty Tech P12 matchup I'm telling them to fuck off. People care about SMU more than Tech in Dallas.

[mdmost 42997]

8 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

No professor. UH is in Houston, Houston TV's.  Tech has a large part of the DFW market.  Huge alumni base there.

Does it? DFW is a pro-sports market that cares about the Cowboys and the good Texas college teams. The Tech/Baylor game at JerryWorld was never sold out and never rated much after Baylor started to suck.

[dark54555 72]

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Does it? DFW is a pro-sports market that cares about the Cowboys and the good Texas college teams. The Tech/Baylor game at JerryWorld was never sold out and never rated much after Baylor started to suck.

There's more Tech fans here than SMU, Baylor, and TCU (likely combined) at this point.  I'd call it a dead heat with Aggy. Still behind Texas (and sadly the land thieves) or the Cowboys, though, by a good margin.

Edited July 25, 2021 by dark54555

[mdmost 42997]

4 minutes ago, dark54555 said:

There's more Tech fans here than SMU, Baylor, and TCU (likely combined) at this point.  I'd call it a dead heat with Aggy. Still behind Texas (and sadly the land thieves) or the Cowboys, though, by a good margin.

Well sure there's more but that doesn't translate to getting the average DFW sports fan to tune into a Texas Tech Pac 12 game unless it's again USC. They're more likely to tune into whatever SEC game is on. The SEC on CBS always won the day here, regardless of who was on it unless it went against a Texas game with a decent opponent. 

And no one gives a shit about SMU. They can't even fill their tiny stadium. 

Edited July 25, 2021 by mdmost

[Uncle Nate 2097]

5 minutes ago, ztejas said:

They really don't. If I'm at a bar in DFW and someone asks to put on a shitty Tech P12 matchup I'm telling them to fuck off. People care about SMU more than Tech in Dallas.

As someone who is deeply entrenched with SMU and Dallas, I can tell you this is false. Tech outdraws SMU 10:1, except maybe at The Barley House. 

[Uncle Nate 2097]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

If these schools were smart, they’d wait until the day after the two $70M checks clear before announcing their moves.

Narrator: They’re not.

Truest thing written to-date. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

UH doesn’t have Houston TVs. People in Houston don’t grow up and think man, I want to go to UH. If they have the money, they are going away to college. It isn’t a good undergrad school and Houston isn’t a destination city so it doesn’t attract out of state students. It’s a commuter school. It’s people who can’t afford to go away to college, or people that need to stay close to family. 

The sports TV watcher in Houston is Texas/Aggy and a little LSU

 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9323]

No professor. UH is in Houston, Houston TV's.  Tech has a large part of the DFW market.  Huge alumni base there.

There's no fucking chance in hell the PAC lets in Cougar High. None. Zero.

UofH barely moves the TV needle. They suck athletically and academically. Shit, the PAC wouldn't even consider Tech or oSu unless Texas and ou was part of the deal in the last go round.

[Moby Ric 2058]

Like I said, just a guess.  Which is just as accurate as any guess on any table out there.  Nobody knows anything. 

 

I'm going back to shopping for a mountain house.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Moby Ric

[ztejas 43411]

25 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

As someone who is deeply entrenched with SMU and Dallas, I can tell you this is false. Tech outdraws SMU 10:1, except maybe at The Barley House. 

Tech graduates about 5 times as many students as SMU every year, and they have slightly more grad students, yet they outdo SMU 10 to 1 in Dallas? 

Tech isn't Texas or OU - they don't have a bunch of bandwagon fans. Maybe they have more fans than SMU in Dallas but 10 to 1 is a joke. 

[JMFP 1120]

2 hours ago, Not a Sock said:

Have the highest viewership outside of OU/UT games is a low fucking bar. Non OU/UT big12 games struggled to break a million viewers and many didn’t break 750k that’s fucking terrible.

According to these guys https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ OSU's lowest viewed game was vs TCU at 642k viewers, next lowest was 905k vs KU, the rest of our games were well over a million viewers. The rest of the BIG12 does struggle.... I mean yeah, we get it, we're not Texas/OU but a couple of us do get some people to watch.   Going through that list, last year the highest viewed games were: Ou/Tex at 4.81 million OSU/OU at 4.1 OSU/Tex at 4.04   KU and KSU's ratings were abysmal and no one seemed to want to watch Baylor or TCU either.

[ztejas 43411]

30 minutes ago, mdmost said:

And no one gives a shit about SMU. They can't even fill their tiny stadium. 

Not saying that isn't true, too, just that Tech does not move the needle in DFW. SMU is hard to quantify because we were so shitty for so long. If you go back to the 80s SMU was THE college team in Dallas and had plenty of bandwagon fans. Tech will never have that type of impact in Dallas. 

[Speedway 152]

2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Speedway

[Doc Reeves 6434]

2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Thx for this @Vic Mackey

 

PAC adds Kstate over tcu?

[Nicole44 22056]

1 minute ago, Doc Reeves said:

 

PAC adds Kstate over tcu?

PAC has a thing against religious schools or they would have added BYU…or maybe not.