Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[LTtxfan 49141]

 

[TKthunder2 4985]

Since the main realignment thread is still moving pretty fast I figured I’d cross post this here…

So reading some of these boards and insiders, it seems like Texas and Oklahoma will both get the $50 million/year that the SEC was already going to get (WITHOUT cutting into the existing members slice of the pie) and will give everyone in the SEC an ADDITIONAL $10 million/year.  If you do that math that means these two Big 12 schools are worth $260 million/year.

Texas got $15 million from the LHN and Oklahoma was getting $10 million from Fox Sports for third tier rights, remove that from the $260 million and you have an estimated market rate for their 1st/2nd tier rights which is $235 million a year.

The Big 12 1st/2nd tier TV deal was distributing ~$38 million a year each of its schools which is $380 million total.  If you subtract UT/OU’s $235 million the rest of the Big 12’s TV rights would only be worth ~$145 million/year.  $145 divide by the 8 remaining school averages out to just over $18 million per school.  (Ever wonder how all the Big12 schools “found” enough money to completely renovate their old ass stadiums?)

Even considering that the best of the 8 remaining school likely pull in a few million more over lower conference members it’s still likely less than the average $28 million/year the PAC12 is currently receiving.  Thus expansion with any of the leftover Big12 schools will directly cut into the amount of revenue the PAC12 is getting.

The only reason for the PAC12 to expand is for fear of being left out of the CFP deal and while that may be enough for Utah/WSU/Oregon State, it’s not a worry for USC/Oregon who would just leave and join another conference.

[Moby Ric 2058]

5 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Since the main realignment thread is still moving pretty fast I figured I’d cross post this here…

 

So reading some of these boards and insiders, it seems like Texas and Oklahoma will both get the $50 million/year that the SEC was already going to get (WITHOUT cutting into the existing members slice of the pie) and will give everyone in the SEC an ADDITIONAL $10 million/year.  If you do that math that means these two Big 12 schools are worth $260 million/year.

Texas got $15 million from the LHN and Oklahoma was getting $10 million from Fox Sports for third tier rights, remove that from the $260 million and you have an estimated market rate for their 1st/2nd tier rights which is $235 million a year.

The Big 12 1st/2nd tier TV deal was distributing ~$38 million a year each of its schools which is $380 million total.  If you subtract UT/OU’s $235 million the rest of the Big 12’s TV rights would only be worth ~$145 million/year.  $145 divide by the 8 remaining school averages out to just over $18 million per school.  (Ever wonder how all the Big12 schools “found” enough money to completely renovate their old ass stadiums?)

Even considering that the best of the 8 remaining school likely pull in a few million more over lower conference members it’s still likely less than the average $28 million/year the PAC12 is currently receiving.  Thus expansion with any of the leftover Big12 schools will directly cut into the amount of revenue the PAC12 is getting.

The only reason for the PAC12 to expand is for fear of being left out of the CFP deal and while that may be enough for Utah/WSU/Oregon State, it’s not a worry for USC/Oregon who would just leave and join another conference.

So if I am reading this right, which is doubtful.  The Big 12 is dead come Tuesday, There is no real reason for the PAC to expand since the legit schools don't want a paycut and will bolt.  The Big 10 is waiting with open arms for them where they can bank more.  So therefore the Big 12 is dead, and the PAC 12 is on life support.  Big 10 ok, SEC ok, ACC not really involved, but is fine.  So anyone not in those 3 conferences is fucked, and college football is basically over as we know it and it is now the have's and the have nots.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Moby Ric

[Had Enough 2076]

I’ve seen you walking down in China Town.

Is it you Little Tommie T?

Only Gator I’ve known.

No China towns where I’m from.

[Dirk X West 772]

7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

So if I am reading this right, which is doubtful.  The Big 12 is dead come Tuesday, There is no real reason for the PAC to expand since the legit schools don't want a paycut and will bolt.  The Big 10 is waiting with open arms for them where they can bank more.  So therefore the Big 12 is dead, and the PAC 12 is on life support.  Big 10 ok, SEC ok, ACC not really involved, but is fine.  So anyone not in those 3 conferences is fucked, and college football is basically over as we know it and it is now the have's and the have nots.

For now.  I think more schools are going to eventually get selected out by ESPN and Fox., including the ACC football lightweights.

[TKthunder2 4985]

7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

So if I am reading this right, which is doubtful.  The Big 12 is dead come Tuesday, There is no real reason for the PAC to expand since the legit schools don't want a paycut and will bolt.  The Big 10 is waiting with open arms for them where they can bank more.  So therefore the Big 12 is dead, and the PAC 12 is on life support.  Big 10 ok, SEC ok, ACC not really involved, but is fine.  So anyone not in those 3 conferences is fucked, and college football is basically over as we know it and it is now the have's and the have nots.

Here’s a guy on Reddit posted in the other thread too showing 2018 numbers and not including 3rd tier rights.  The number I was using was from the new SEC deal and the 2019 Big12 distribution so we are off quite a bit but the conclusion is basically the same though he doesn’t get into how that translates into the value or the remaining 8.

 

[texasstrong12 4668]

The Ohio State AD RTed this. This can't be a good sign for the leftovers in the Big 12. 

I don't think the Big 10 is making a move unless they can make a splash with some of those Pac schools (UCLA, Oregon and USC). 

 

[JimmyJames 12271]

The B1G will not expand further because it makes no financial sense to do so.
 

Same with the SEC as the only viable expansion targets in the ACC are owned by ESPN already (in a sweetheart deal) and they won’t pay the SEC much more money to add them. So they won’t.

The PAC 12 will expand if fox and/or espn tells them it will make them more money. Don’t know the answer to that question.

The ACC and ND are the wildcard. The ACC has the worst TV contract by far as it doesn’t end for another 13 years or so. What will ND do and what are ESPNs plans with respect to the ACC and ND? Don’t know but that’s the question.

 

[RMac5 1551]

2 hours ago, 927 E. 41st said:

There is nothing that could befall Baylor that would make me feel sorry for them. I spend a good bit of time in McLennan County and I avoid Waco when possible.

Waco does have some great bbq though.

[927 E. 41st 1124]

47 minutes ago, RMac5 said:

Waco does have some great bbq though.

I'll give you that, and throw in Brimstone Whisky.

[LTtxfan 49141]

7 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

The B1G will not expand further because it makes no financial sense to do so.  Same with the SEC as the only viable expansion targets in the ACC are owned by ESPN already (in a sweetheart deal) and they won’t pay the SEC much more money to add them. So they won’t.  The PAC 12 will expand if fox and/or espn tells them it will make them more money. Don’t know the answer to that question.  The ACC and ND are the wildcard. The ACC has the worst TV contract by far as it doesn’t end for another 13 years or so. What will ND do and what are ESPNs plans with respect to the ACC and ND? Don’t know but that’s the question.

 

 

 

[Kennythetiger 9374]

I suppose we all favor our alma mater a little bit, but this thread has been eye-opening to me as to how few people watch K-State on tv. Shit. I guess I have been subconsciously living in the glory years of the late 90s when I was there. 
We might be fucked. 

[Bevo14 8303]

10 minutes ago, Kennythetiger said:

I suppose we all favor our alma mater a little bit, but this thread has been eye-opening to me as to how few people watch K-State on tv. Shit. I guess I have been subconsciously living in the glory years of the late 90s when I was there. 
We might be fucked. 

Just need a little of that purple wizard magic

[TKthunder2 4985]

1 hour ago, Kennythetiger said:

I suppose we all favor our alma mater a little bit, but this thread has been eye-opening to me as to how few people watch K-State on tv. Shit. I guess I have been subconsciously living in the glory years of the late 90s when I was there. 
We might be fucked. 

This spreadsheet of the ratings from last year’s Big12 games was posted in another thread.  It’s nothing specific to K State it’s pretty much the entire Big12 minus UT/OU (honorable mention to Okie St).

[Nivek 16916]

The Ohio State AD RTed this. This can't be a good sign for the leftovers in the Big 12. 
I don't think the Big 10 is making a move unless they can make a splash with some of those Pac schools (UCLA, Oregon and USC). 
 

Meh, if the next sec contract is for 900 million, then my guess is the big10 will add more schools.

What might also happen from this is the redefining of programming. Yeah, Alabama vs Texas State is not that compelling, but it is a lot more attractive than say KSU vs KU, because Alabama fans want to see it.

[HOOK'EMHOOAH 1610]

I'm not sure whomever else is following this on the r/CFB sub on reddit. The gnashing of the teeth by the fans of other teams in the conference is on full display. All I have to say to them is good luck. The attempt by legislators from baylor and aggy to prevent Texas from exerting its will regarding its own destiny is laughable and sad. I haven't observed much noise out of legislators from tcu or tech. It sucks when the coat tails others have riden on for two and a half decades are going in another direction and the skidding is going to hurt. A lot. Some of the remnants left in the conference, I hope find a way to continue forward. Some, I hope burn into the irrelevant status they deserve. I'm not an 'all-for-conference' guy; I'm an all-for-Texas guy. So I want to do whatever is best for my team and ultimately, everyone else can fuck off a cliff for all I care. 

[LTtxfan 49141]

Maybe a little room for Tech and Okie Lite in SEC...

 

[Huckleberry 32845]

The only two schools I give a shit about in our wake are Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Texas Tech because I'm a Texan and that is a Texas public university. Even though they've not been able to do it so far (partially because of A&M posturing) I still want them to someday become a great university to serve West Texas.

Iowa State because they and their fans are pretty cool.

Everyone else can get bent, fuck you for being assholes to us for decades and then crying that we're leaving you.

Oklahoma State is a subcategory, I kind of hope they're okay too but mostly because they hate Oklahoma and that deserves respect. And their fans are pretty cool I guess, but a lot of that just comes from hating Oklahoma along with us.

[Okie State 3804]

We're not getting an invite to the SEC or Big10. It's the shitty Pac, shitty ACC, or relegation for us. It is known.

[mdmost 42997]

5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Maybe a little room for Tech and Okie Lite in SEC...

 

Lolz. No. They mean the ACC, specifically the Virginias, Clemson, and FSU. 

[Doc Reeves 6434]

4 minutes ago, Okie State said:

We're not getting an invite to the SEC or Big10. It's the shitty Pac, shitty ACC, or relegation for us. It is known.

 

[LTtxfan 49141]

47 minutes ago, HOOK'EMHOOAH said:

. The attempt by legislators from baylor and aggy to prevent Texas from exerting its will regarding its own destiny is laughable and sad. I haven't observed much noise out of legislators from tcu or tech. It sucks when the coat tails others have riden on for two and a half decades are going in another direction and the skidding is going to hurt. A lot. Some of the remnants left in the conference, I hope find a way to continue forward. Some, I hope burn into the irrelevant status they deserve. I'm not an 'all-for-conference' guy; I'm an all-for-Texas guy. So I want to do whatever is best for my team and ultimately, everyone else can fuck off a cliff for all I care. 

 

This tech legislator has been loud... 

 

 

Dustin Burrows Retweeted

 

[mdmost 42997]

15 minutes ago, Okie State said:

We're not getting an invite to the SEC or Big10. It's the shitty Pac, shitty ACC, or relegation for us. It is known.

You probably don't care what I think right now but I think the shitty Pac would be great for oSu and Tech, if they admitted you. It certainly puts you both over Baylor and TCU who won't have any options. 

[Okie State 3804]

You probably don't care what I think right now but I think the shitty Pac would be great for oSu and Tech, if they admitted you. It certainly puts you both over Baylor and TCU who won't have any options. 

Oh I agree that's probably our best option. It just seems as though the Pac may be doomed to fail also and we'll be right back in the same spot a few years from now. I want what's best for the long-term viability of the university... whatever that is.

[JimmyJames 12271]

18 minutes ago, Okie State said:

We're not getting an invite to the SEC or Big10. It's the shitty Pac, shitty ACC, or relegation for us. It is known.

I’m predicting either a PAC 12 invite along with Texas tech, TCU, and Houston or nothing/relegation. ACC (and SEC for that matter) is highly unlikely. B1G is impossible. 
 

KSU and Iowa state are highly vulnerable. Baylor is turbo fucked and frankly deserves it. 

[mdmost 42997]

5 minutes ago, Okie State said:

7 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You probably don't care what I think right now but I think the shitty Pac would be great for oSu and Tech, if they admitted you. It certainly puts you both over Baylor and TCU who won't have any options. 

Oh I agree that's probably our best option. It just seems as though the Pac may be doomed to fail also and we'll be right back in the same spot a few years from now. I want what's best for the long-term viability of the university... whatever that is.

The upside for oSu and Tech is Fox is going to need inventory in a better time zone than the Pacific gives them. That means games in the Central time zone. That could be appealing to the Pac 12 assuming USC and other don't bolt. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 minutes ago, Okie State said:

6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You probably don't care what I think right now but I think the shitty Pac would be great for oSu and Tech, if they admitted you. It certainly puts you both over Baylor and TCU who won't have any options. 

Oh I agree that's probably our best option. It just seems as though the Pac may be doomed to fail also and we'll be right back in the same spot a few years from now. I want what's best for the long-term viability of the university... whatever that is.

The PAC 12 is still a relatively strong and stable conference just not on the same level as the SEC or B1G. Larry Scott totally fucked up all their tv deals but it’s fixable. If ND doesn’t join the ACC in full then the PAC 12 is in a much better position than the ACC. 

[mdmost 42997]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

The PAC 12 is still a relatively strong and stable conference just not on the same level as the SEC or B1G. Larry Scott totally fucked up all their tv deals but it’s fixable. If ND doesn’t join the ACC in full then the PAC 12 is in a much better position than the ACC. 

Agreed, however, the ACC has ESPN's backing. Fox is going to need to step it up and they now have to since Texas and OU are no longer their properties. The ACC is a lot like the Big 12, top heavy with Clemson and FSU. There's a lot of dead weight in that conference in terms of football. In the Pac 12, you have USC, Oregon, Utah, and Washington all be in the playoff picture, though with not much success.

[Okie State 3804]

I think the Pac will be fine as long as the Big 10 doesn't come raiding the high profile programs. Football will never be elite, but I've always liked their focus on the secondary sports since that's something we put value in. I think our baseball program could actually benefit from that move.

The cultural fit is also a concern. We'd probably fit in better with the Big 10, but as I said...that ain't happening.

[Bevo14 8303]

19 minutes ago, Okie State said:

21 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You probably don't care what I think right now but I think the shitty Pac would be great for oSu and Tech, if they admitted you. It certainly puts you both over Baylor and TCU who won't have any options. 

Oh I agree that's probably our best option. It just seems as though the Pac may be doomed to fail also and we'll be right back in the same spot a few years from now. I want what's best for the long-term viability of the university... whatever that is.

I think the non-USC/Oregon/Washington Pac schools merging with the remaining Big 12 schools would set up a stable conference if the Big 10 decides to go raiding. 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Bevo14

[LTtxfan 49141]

6 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

I think the non-USC/Oregon/Washington Pac schools merging with the remaining Big 12 schools would set up a stable conference if the Big 10 decides to go raiding. 

TV contracts would be significantly less though, so all the schools would have to substantially cut back their athletic programs... 

[LTtxfan 49141]

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by LTtxfan

[Uncle Nate 2097]

1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

 

1.  No, Grandpa Bill.  The Big 12 is dead.

2. I'm a Tech alum and do not feel what UT did should be "illegal".  At this point, ESPN is the evil truly behind the demise of college football.  I'm not going to be interested in a semi-pro league where you have the same basic matchups every single year.  Nothing about that sounds appealing to me.  

I hope Tech lands on its feet in the Pac 12/14/16 whatever, but I am not looking forward to what "college football" is going to look like in the next five years.  I already hated the product that is today's game experience (jumbotron that fills every second between plays, blaring loud commercials and music, etc.)  If I wanted that, I would go to a pro game.  

I miss the college football of just 20-30 years ago...where it still felt like you were on a college campus.  And if I think it's bad now, just how much worse will it be when there are only 20-30 teams in the new "league".  

[LTtxfan 49141]

Brigham Young and Central Florida ??  🤔

[closetohumping 17433]

I think an ACC/Pac merger would make sense, yes I know that won't happen.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

Just now, LTtxfan said:

Brigham Young and Central Florida ??  🤔

If the MWC and AAC had an illegitimate love child...

[Kennythetiger 9374]

Re:  Coach Snyder- I don’t understand all the shit-talking on Texas. Y’all want to leave?  Well, Bye. 
Why force someone to stay?  Texas is gone, Oklahoma is gone, all I’ve got to do is figure out where KU and K-State end up. Hating you motherfuckers isn’t going to help anything. 

[Sbbruin 21828]

58 minutes ago, Okie State said:

We're not getting an invite to the SEC or Big10. It's the shitty Pac, shitty ACC, or relegation for us. It is known.

Welcome

 

 

[Okie State 3804]

Welcome

 
 

Lol, just watched that yesterday.

[Sbbruin 21828]

7 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I think an ACC/Pac merger would make sense, yes I know that won't happen.

Geographically it'd be a nightmare for non-football sports.

[DFW Horn 6123]

4 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Geographically it'd be a nightmare for non-football sports.

Do you think there's any chance UCLA, USC, Oregon, etc. bolt for the B1G if offered bucoo dinero? Or is the Pac-12 more tight nit and collegial? 

[LTtxfan 49141]

SIAP...  (Just in case yah missed this) 

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by LTtxfan

[LTtxfan 49141]

Betrayal...

 

[tokamak 6391]

27 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Geographically it'd be a nightmare for non-football sports.

The only future that makes sense to me at this point is football megaconferences (SEC + B1G + best of the rest) and every other sport in regional conferences. Of course I doubt that will happen.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

11 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Betrayal...

 

 

[LTtxfan 49141]

 

[Sbbruin 21828]

22 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Do you think there's any chance UCLA, USC, Oregon, etc. bolt for the B1G if offered bucoo dinero? Or is the Pac-12 more tight nit and collegial? 

I think everything has to be on the table.  Neuheisel has a pretty good example of a team left holding their dick- UConn.  Edsall had just got them to the Fiesta Bowl as Big East champs.  He bolts to Maryland, the Big East implodes, and UConn doesn't move quickly like WVA, Pitt, UM, etc, and is left relegated to the American.  Now they are going independent as I understand, and are going to get blown out weekly a la NMSU.  I think everybody is in straight scramble mode.  

[tokamak 6391]

What I don't understand is that everyone keeps saying that the Big 12 remnants have no financial value to the other conferences. But if that's the case, they already have plenty of other dead weight. The B1G just added Rutgers and Maryland. They have value and Kansas and Iowa State don't? Washington State is worth more $$ to the Pac-12 than Tech and OSU?

[Tex Pete 20328]

15 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Betrayal...

 

Feelings, nothing more than feelings,
trying to forget my feelings of love.
Teardrops rolling down on my face,
trying to forget my feelings of love.

Feelings, for all my life I'll feel it.
I wish I'd never met you, girl; you'll never come again.

Feelings, wo-o-o feelings,
wo-o-o, feel you again in my arms.

Feelings, feelings like I've never lost you
and feelings like I've never have you again in my heart.

[Okie State 3804]

 

I'm done with college sports if this happens. I've already lost interest over the years, but this would be the final straw.