Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[Sbbruin 21829]

1 minute ago, tokamak said:

What I don't understand is that everyone keeps saying that the Big 12 remnants have no financial value to the other conferences. But if that's the case, they already have plenty of other dead weight. The B1G just added Rutgers and Maryland. They have value and Kansas and Iowa State don't? Washington State is worth more $$ to the Pac-12 than Tech and OSU?

But a conference like the P12 isn't going to jettison WSU or OSU in exchange for Tech or O(k)SU.  It would be in addition to, and that's where the pie slices get smaller for each school.

[Okie State 3811]

What I don't understand is that everyone keeps saying that the Big 12 remnants have no financial value to the other conferences. But if that's the case, they already have plenty of other dead weight. The B1G just added Rutgers and Maryland. They have value and Kansas and Iowa State don't? Washington State is worth more $$ to the Pac-12 than Tech and OSU?

Exactly. It's bullshit to act like every conference is full of powerhouse programs. It's essentially the same mix of blue bloods, mid-level, and doormats everywhere.

[Paul Wesley 3278]

6 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

That guy is an idiot. 

UH and SMU at numbers one and two?  So the Big 12 should try to *exactly* replicate a financially non-viable SWC (which we already started by adding TCU)?  

I just wrote a long post about this on the "What killed the SWC" thread, then clicked around to see this tweet.  

Ugh.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Paul Wesley

[LTtxfan 49144]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

We're not getting an invite to the SEC or Big10. It's the shitty Pac, shitty ACC, or relegation for us. It is known.

 

Okie State yah gotta include this with above post ^^^

[Neonmoon 38129]

The other problem with keeping the Big 12 together by adding some desperate no names aka SMU/UH/UCF. The pay cut will be massive. From 37 million per school down to Like 7 million. What does that do to some of these programs?

[LTtxfan 49144]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

The other problem with keeping the Big 12 together by adding some desperate no names aka SMU/UH/UCF. The pay cut will be massive. From 37 million per school down to Like 7 million. What does that do to some of these programs?

 

See below post for good analysis of how much it hurts...

 

[Okie State 3811]

But a conference like the P12 isn't going to jettison WSU or OSU in exchange for Tech or O(k)SU.  It would be in addition to, and that's where the pie slices get smaller for each school.

This is true and is why I think we ultimately get relegated. I think we bring more than what we're given credit for, but not enough to offset the reduced shares to everyone else.

[Neonmoon 38129]

6 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

See below post for good analysis of how much it hurts...

 

Thanks. Yeah. Keeping the Big 12 together is not a financially viable option. Every program would need to cut tons of money from their budgets ( ie, coaches, scholarships, facilities, entire sports) 

The ISU quote is correct, without TX/OU, the Big 12 is the Mountain West 

[Nivek 16922]

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

 

This tech legislator has been loud... 

 

 

Dustin Burrows Retweeted

 

High maintenance girl you NEVER dated but dreamed about and bought posters of.  

[Had Enough 2078]

This is true and is why I think we ultimately get relegated. I think we bring more than what we're given credit for, but not enough to offset the reduced shares to everyone else.

That’s why you reach out to the SEC just to see. Is the bigger goal world domination or 16 teams? You and Tech are cultural fits and while maybe not huge markets your athletic programs have some histories and decent sized alumni bases.

They can only say no.

[Burt Macklin 19020]

 

32 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The other problem with keeping the Big 12 together by adding some desperate no names aka SMU/UH/UCF. The pay cut will be massive. From 37 million per school down to Like 7 million. What does that do to some of these programs?

This isn’t a very accurate way to frame the discussion. UT and OU are gone, so the pay cut is already massive. Every current Big 12 member will be looking to get into another Power conference. If they can’t, then the AAC just signed a brand new TV deal paying its members $7 mil per year, up from 2.4 per year. The remnants of the Big 12 probably couldn’t hope for much better than that. 
 

This is why I think the Big 12 will play out the string to 2025. There’s just not enough of them with real options. Most of these schools can’t go anywhere and they’re better off adding a couple schools now to get back to 10 while trying to keep their current TV deal in place (fat chance. Fox ain’t paying that) and trying to get the $156 million buyout out of UT and OU as a way to supplement their income for a few years beyond what they could every hope to get on their own merit. 

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 

This isn’t a very accurate way to frame the discussion. UT and OU are gone, so the pay cut is already massive. Every current Big 12 member will be looking to get into another Power conference. If they can’t, then the AAC just signed a brand new TV deal paying its members $7 mil per year, up from 2.4 per year. The remnants of the Big 12 probably couldn’t hope for much better than that. 
 

This is why I think the Big 12 will play out the string to 2025. There’s just not enough of them with real options. Most of these schools can’t go anywhere and they’re better off adding a couple schools now to get back to 10 while trying to keep their current TV deal in place (fat chance. Fox ain’t paying that) and trying to get the $156 million buyout out of UT and OU as a way to supplement their income for a few years beyond what they could every hope to get on their own merit. 

as we learned in 2010... no one wanted to be the last one standing when the music stopped, which is why Colorado was the first to bolt because they wanted to ensure it wasnt Texas, aTm, OU and Okie Lite that left for the pac 10  leaving either a 14 team league or a 16 team league where CU was gonna be fighting Tech, BU, KU as the "other 2 who got spots in the Pac 16"

 

KU and ISU would both be morons to not be making real plans with the B1G.  and WV was always a band-aid add and they knew it, so they are heading to the ACC.

 

in short that would make it 5 teams who would vote to end the conf. which is all you need to kill it.   we might not be in the SEC next year, but there is no fucking way we arent there in 23 and a non-existent buy out

['stache 21795]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

What I don't understand is that everyone keeps saying that the Big 12 remnants have no financial value to the other conferences. But if that's the case, they already have plenty of other dead weight. The B1G just added Rutgers and Maryland. They have value and Kansas and Iowa State don't? Washington State is worth more $$ to the Pac-12 than Tech and OSU?

Stop talking common sense. That's not what conference realignment is about. 

[Laxtonto 12078]

7 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

as we learned in 2010... no one wanted to be the last one standing when the music stopped, which is why Colorado was the first to bolt because they wanted to ensure it wasnt Texas, aTm, OU and Okie Lite that left for the pac 10  leaving either a 14 team league or a 16 team league where CU was gonna be fighting Tech, BU, KU as the "other 2 who got spots in the Pac 16"

 

KU and ISU would both be morons to not be making real plans with the B1G.  and WV was always a band-aid add and they knew it, so they are heading to the ACC.

 

in short that would make it 5 teams who would vote to end the conf. which is all you need to kill it.   we might not be in the SEC next year, but there is no fucking way we arent there in 23 and a non-existent buy out

While I agree with the premise, it does take two to tango. Are we sure the B1G thinks those school remotely help? Does the ACC have better options? 
 

This circles back to the problem that has always plagued the media deals. Outside of Texas and OU, who else provides value? The three schools you mentioned may provide value (and I would guess WVU might the most valuable based on the context of what they bring rivalry wise) but all have serious boat anchor issues. 
 

KU is a football disaster and are mired in NCAA issues. Do they retain the same luster if Self gets tied to any of this or just decides to walk away? 
 

ISU has a massive Iowa problem and doesn’t provide the brand value to overcome the objections of Iowa. They already play every year non-conference so it’s not like that rivalry provides a major boost.

 

WVU has issues of they pissed off the blue bloods of the ACC years ago and their academics will be used as the excuse. The biggest bonus they give is lots of local ties in a “new” state with a solid sports profile across the board.

 

None of those scream “Let’s move now!” if I’m another P5 school. I would wait and see what happens with the 16 team SEC first… It’s not like they can’t kill the new version of the B12 regardless how they backfill later.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

No idea why people think the B1G Fourteen Ten would want to expand into Iowa or Kansas, they only took Maryland and Rutgers to steal tv money from the East coasters; and to have a vague claim to NYC. (and I'll never understand how Nebraska was able to get into the conference and get a big payday for all the media money that isn't coming from that state).

The SEC wants Texas (and is willing to take Oklahoma as part of the deal) to get what they thought they were getting it aTm, meaning tv viewers in Dallas/Houston/Austin/San Antonio and all places in between. This stuff has little to do with on field competition, rivalries, or anything other than cash. 
Texas is really the big dog that could move (not counting Notre Dame who also moves the needle). 
What I don't get is why doesn't someone get 4 -16 team football only conference, let the big dogs hunt, and relegate all the others to 2nd tier status (which they really are). In all honesty there are not even that many top tier football programs, but the whining would be amazing if it was like 4 - 10 or 12 team conferences. 

I'd have to think there would be an even bigger annual money bucket dump for the big boys, if they would get to this point. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Also, the rumblings of the SEC poaching more schools, is that real? Or is it an attempt to get the ACC/Big 10/PAC to start adding schools to help break up the Big 12. One big game of chicken. Hell, they maybe could take Clemson, FSU and destroy that conference too. 

[Huckleberry 32848]

Just now, Wally Fairway said:

No idea why people think the B1G Fourteen Ten would want to expand into Iowa or Kansas, they only took Maryland and Rutgers to steal tv money from the East coasters; and to have a vague claim to NYC. (and I'll never understand how Nebraska was able to get into the conference and get a big payday for all the media money that isn't coming from that state).

The SEC wants Texas (and is willing to take Oklahoma as part of the deal) to get what they thought they were getting it aTm, meaning tv viewers in Dallas/Houston/Austin/San Antonio and all places in between. This stuff has little to do with on field competition, rivalries, or anything other than cash. 
Texas is really the big dog that could move (not counting Notre Dame who also moves the needle). 
What I don't get is why doesn't someone get 4 -16 team football only conference, let the big dogs hunt, and relegate all the others to 2nd tier status (which they really are). In all honesty there are not even that many top tier football programs, but the whining would be amazing if it was like 4 - 10 or 12 team conferences. 

I'd have to think there would be an even bigger annual money bucket dump for the big boys, if they would get to this point. 

I think the logic behind KU and ISU rumors is exactly because of the last part of your post. They make a lot of sense if it's all headed toward 16 team conferences. AAU schools, KU basketball, ISU wrestling, location. The Cyclones also have a much more rabid fanbase than they're given credit for. 

I don't think the two of them move the needle much but they do deserve a home in a 64 team top level. 

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

my random thought of the day....

how many free 15 yard penalties do we get this year since the league voted to make the horns down a 15yd unsportsman?

 

gotta imagine every single school is gonna be so pissed at us that they are doing the horns down in the stands and on the sidelines....     only school not pissed at us is ou and they invented the horns down.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

30 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't think the two of them move the needle much but they do deserve a home in a 64 team top level. 

You can't be serious Clark - no way does KU deserve a spot in a 64 team football alliance; I think MSU could be borderline, based on the last few years and the 20 before Dantonio had is run.

I'll post my 64 teams, along with current conferences later. But it certainly won't include Kansas (1 year with more than 8 wins since 1996, 2 since 1905, hell you have to go back to 2008 to find a year they won more than 1 conference game)

FWIW - here is a great resource for historical information about every school - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Wally Fairway
link added

[Huckleberry 32848]

Just now, Wally Fairway said:

You can't be serious Clark - no way does KU deserve a spot in a 64 team football alliance; I think MSU could be borderline, based on the last few years and the 20 before Dantonio had is run.

I'll post my 64 teams, along with current conferences later. But it certainly won't include Kansas (1 year with more than 8 wins since 1996, 2 since 1905, hell you have to go back to 2008 to find a year they won more than 1 conference game)

 

 

I'm envisioning a Top 64 breakaway from the NCAA, which would include all sports.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

I'm envisioning a Top 64 breakaway from the NCAA, which would include all sports.

I wouldn't mind seeing that, but there is limited economic benefit to anything not football, basketball, baseball (in the south), and hockey (to a few northern schools). Having to travel for conference golf, tennis, swimming, track, lacrosse, wrestling, gymnastics, volleyball, softball, diving, cross country, etc is just a waste of money and time; let there be regional conferences and national champions.

[Uncle Nate 2097]

2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Betrayal...

 

I'm guessing the AD was Kirby Hocutt (Tech) and the "high-ranking Texas source" was Chris Beard. 

[lemonandaturd 4285]

Fuck Dustin Burrows

[TKthunder2 4985]

2 hours ago, tokamak said:

What I don't understand is that everyone keeps saying that the Big 12 remnants have no financial value to the other conferences. But if that's the case, they already have plenty of other dead weight. The B1G just added Rutgers and Maryland. They have value and Kansas and Iowa State don't? Washington State is worth more $$ to the Pac-12 than Tech and OSU?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
 

Texas #2 but Tech is obviously behind UT & aggy for #3

Rutgers - New Jersey #11 (near NYC metro of NY state #3)

Washington #13

Maryland #18

Oklahoma #28

Iowa #32

Kansas #36

West Virginia #40

Like it’s been said before, other conferences have dead weight (even the SEC has 2 schools in Mississippi #35) but the realignment musical chairs make some lucky and others unlucky.  You either need to be a blue blood or bring viewers/markets.  The remaining 8 has KU basketball blueblood with the KC market and maybe Tech for viewers and the TX statewide market.  Recent ratings numbers are also positive of Okie State too (might give them some small shares of their surrounding markets, OKC, Tulsa, DFW, KC).  Still look at the number I posted on the previous page, unless FOX is willing to pay the PAC more money for schools (which they might as they’ll need 11am content), all thing equal they alone will not bring enough for the conference to keep them at the same level of payout.

[TreatyOak 16311]

[TKthunder2 4985]

18 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Since the main realignment thread is still moving pretty fast I figured I’d cross post this here…

 

So reading some of these boards and insiders, it seems like Texas and Oklahoma will both get the $50 million/year that the SEC was already going to get (WITHOUT cutting into the existing members slice of the pie) and will give everyone in the SEC an ADDITIONAL $10 million/year.  If you do that math that means these two Big 12 schools are worth $260 million/year.

Texas got $15 million from the LHN and Oklahoma was getting $10 million from Fox Sports for third tier rights, remove that from the $260 million and you have an estimated market rate for their 1st/2nd tier rights which is $235 million a year.

The Big 12 1st/2nd tier TV deal was distributing ~$38 million a year each of its schools which is $380 million total.  If you subtract UT/OU’s $235 million the rest of the Big 12’s TV rights would only be worth ~$145 million/year.  $145 divide by the 8 remaining school averages out to just over $18 million per school.  (Ever wonder how all the Big12 schools “found” enough money to completely renovate their old ass stadiums?)

Even considering that the best of the 8 remaining school likely pull in a few million more over lower conference members it’s still likely less than the average $28 million/year the PAC12 is currently receiving.  Thus expansion with any of the leftover Big12 schools will directly cut into the amount of revenue the PAC12 is getting.

The only reason for the PAC12 to expand is for fear of being left out of the CFP deal and while that may be enough for Utah/WSU/Oregon State, it’s not a worry for USC/Oregon who would just leave and join another conference.

So according to this article, the remaining 8 are only worth $9 million a year (ouch) which is half my estimate $18 million I wrote above.  FYI The American (UH, Cincy, UCF) is worth $7 million a year.  This would mean Texas and Oklahoma’s Tier 1&2 TV rights are worth $290 million a year and the remains 8 are worth $72 million.  I was close.  Adding in Tier 3 Texas and Oklahoma’s TV rights are worth $315 million a year.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-realignment-fallout-whats-next-with-texas-oklahoma-stating-intent-to-leave-big-12-for-sec/

[Steel Shank 9421]

5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

The only two schools I give a shit about in our wake are Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Texas Tech because I'm a Texan and that is a Texas public university. Even though they've not been able to do it so far (partially because of A&M posturing) I still want them to someday become a great university to serve West Texas.

Iowa State because they and their fans are pretty cool.

Everyone else can get bent, fuck you for being assholes to us for decades and then crying that we're leaving you.

Oklahoma State is a subcategory, I kind of hope they're okay too but mostly because they hate Oklahoma and that deserves respect. And their fans are pretty cool I guess, but a lot of that just comes from hating Oklahoma along with us.

Hell fuckin' yeah!!

[billfromlaketravis 11447]

Scipio's newest article ain't bad. Kind of reiterates what we already know. 

Kansas the most options followed by Iowa State, Tech, OK State, and WVU. 

Just need 4 more. 

[LTtxfan 49144]

 

[C-Man 27187]

And????

[Istian 241]

3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

And????

Seriously - the fuck is this shit? Some kind of fucked up territorial justification to take away PUF funds? Some kind of weird “you need us” cry for help? He looks like a bitch for this.

[Scholz 11938]

Dustin Burrows is a young up and coming regard.

[LTtxfan 49144]

 

Set it on fire??  No, more like held it together much longer than Texas/OU should have...

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by LTtxfan

[Slacks 6819]

On 7/25/2021 at 2:07 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

The only person in Houston that gives a shit about UofH Football is Matt Thomas. 

Fertitta

[mdmost 42999]

There's always the Mountain West....

 

[LTtxfan 49144]

 

[TreatyOak 16311]

[DFW Horn 6123]

7 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Patterson isn't nearly fat enough

['stache 21795]

1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

So according to this article, the remaining 8 are only worth $9 million a year (ouch) which is half my estimate $18 million I wrote above.  FYI The American (UH, Cincy, UCF) is worth $7 million a year.  This would mean Texas and Oklahoma’s Tier 1&2 TV rights are worth $290 million a year and the remains 8 are worth $72 million.  I was close.  Adding in Tier 3 Texas and Oklahoma’s TV rights are worth $315 million a year.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-realignment-fallout-whats-next-with-texas-oklahoma-stating-intent-to-leave-big-12-for-sec/

No way that number is correct. It'll be a huge haircut, but come one, we're not going to make only $2 mil more than fucking Tulsa or East Carolina.

[bolverk 29655]

 

 

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

I'm not sure if any of these schools actually have any options. Maybe the ACC wants West Virginia. I don't really know anything about them.

Kansas? They have a top tier basketball program, but so did UConn. The only investment Kansas has made in football since the big conference realignment windfall they got in revenue money is the removal of the track. They might end up somewhere, but it's hard to argue they deserve to.

Kansas State is at least trying with facilities, but they don't have viewers.

Texas Tech has fewer viewers than Kansas State.

Oklahoma State has the best odds of finding a life raft, in my opinion. I'm just not sure how much a major conference would covet the second best program in Oklahoma.

[Kennythetiger 9375]

34 minutes ago, mdmost said:

There's always the Mountain West....

 

K-State fan googling “Who is in the Mountain West Conference?”…. 

[TKthunder2 4985]

20 minutes ago, 'stache said:

No way that number is correct. It'll be a huge haircut, but come one, we're not going to make only $2 mil more than fucking Tulsa or East Carolina.

My rough estimates (based on the “reported” SEC payout increase) I quoted above were $18 million/per school average.  Might be some exaggeration in that quote.

[LTtxfan 49144]

[Okie State 3811]

The same five scenarios will be rehashed countless times over the next week/month/however long this bullshit takes. Just hope it's over with soon so we can move on.

[DFW Horn 6123]

 

[LTtxfan 49144]

Okie Lite

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by LTtxfan

[HtownHorn 14663]

20 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

So if I am reading this right, which is doubtful.  The Big 12 is dead come Tuesday, There is no real reason for the PAC to expand since the legit schools don't want a paycut and will bolt.  The Big 10 is waiting with open arms for them where they can bank more.  So therefore the Big 12 is dead, and the PAC 12 is on life support.  Big 10 ok, SEC ok, ACC not really involved, but is fine.  So anyone not in those 3 conferences is fucked, and college football is basically over as we know it and it is now the have's and the have nots.

Oregon and USC are bolting anyway. The Pac-12 will die just like the Big 12 did. The model where 8-10 little schools living off of 2 or 3 bigger schools is just no longer sustainable.

[Anastasis 23460]

 

[Anastasis 23460]

1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

Okie Lite

 

From profile:

Visionary leader.

 

LOL