Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[ChickenSandwich 9,826]

27 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

Everyone gets more money if they stay in the Big 12 until the buyouts are paid. This is what I meant yesterday when I said that I don't see any reason the remaining 8 wouldn't get the full buyouts. Either they wait it out and get them because there are no other options or they get them (and maybe a bit more) sooner as a negotiation ploy for relinquishing the Texas and OU GOR.

If TX and OU are willing to stroke a check, and leave in a year, playing a season at 8 teams could be disastrous. It’s a huge gamble the viewer numbers won’t further decline, thus further weakening their position. It’s even worse if they show success yet still no viewer increases. 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

3 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

If TX and OU are willing to stroke a check, and leave in a year, playing a season at 8 teams could be disastrous. It’s a huge gamble the viewer numbers won’t further decline, thus further weakening their position. It’s even worse if they show success yet still no viewer increases. 

But it's just a game of chicken. They know it's over soon, but the networks also have to modify the contract with the real world results still unknown. That's why in my next post I talked about bringing in two schools with equivalent TV draws. Bring in 2 of BYU, Houston, UCF, etc. and they can go through 2025 losing only $7.5M per year. Or at least threaten to do so if none of them get invites from another P5 conference. 

[WBT 20,561]

32 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I don't even remember if Tech had a basketball team prior to Beard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jrmpQLGK4Y

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

But it's just a game of chicken. They know it's over soon, but the networks also have to modify the contract with the real world results still unknown. That's why in my next post I talked about bringing in two schools with equivalent TV draws. Bring in 2 of BYU, Houston, UCF, etc. and they can go through 2025 losing only $7.5M per year. Or at least threaten to do so if none of them get invites from another P5 conference. 

There are two games of chicken going on technically.  The game of chicken between UT/OU and the remaining teams in the Big 12 and also a game of chicken between all the teams left in the Big 12.  Can Tech or OSU trust Kansas not to bolt?  Or ISU not to bolt?  Maybe KU can’t trust Tech to bolt if they get the opportunity.  They can wait this out but really each school can’t trust each other right now.  It’s like watching a college football episode of Game of Thrones.

[CooterBrown 18,003]

They should just go hyper-regional or maybe just have the entry requirement be that there can't be more than 10 foot elevation change in the city limits.

• OSU
• Tulsa
• Oral Roberts
• Kansas State
• Kansas
• Nebraska
• Texas Tech
• Wichita State

[ChickenSandwich 9,826]

Or go small and try to schedule 4 OOC games with the SEC and Big 10/ACC each year. No D2 games etc. The ratings would at least show large improvements to sell their next deal. The buyout money covers losses (or used to invest in their product)

[Huckleberry 32,848]

10 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Or go small and try to schedule 4 OOC games with the SEC and Big 10/ACC each year. No D2 games etc. The ratings would at least show large improvements to sell their next deal. The buyout money covers losses (or used to invest in their product)

This kind of thing could theoretically work but I think it takes too much cooperation from the other conferences and their programs. That seems unlikely even if by some miracle the remaining 8 teams work well together under solid conference leadership from the Big 12 office. Don't laugh.

[Laxtonto 12,078]

Well, I have for the longest time viewed WVU to the ACC as a long shot, but after poking around on the ACC shit show of a TV deal they may actually do it to rework that outdated under market piece of junk.

 

They are going to be mi h closer to the Pac12 in distribution than the B1G and they deal is locked in to 2035 if I remember correctly. The massive GOR makes them somewhat stable from a poaching standpoint, but they are under market enough that in 5 years teams might still look.

It is somewhat like the B12 deal in that payout made the exit fee less prohibitive than people would expect.

I would not be shocked if WVU gets an invite after ND finally officially decides what they are going to do this round.

[TKthunder2 4,985]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Why would we dissolve the conference by joining the AAC? We’d lose out on the buyout money and take a massive loss of annual revenue. The latter will happen even if we stay together, but if we really aren’t invited to another P5, I’m pretty sure we’d stick together long enough to get the buyout money since our tv revenue is fucked either way. 

Y’all won’t, the Big12 is one of the autonomous 5 conferences which basically means they are able to make their own rules (with approval of the other 4, though that could be taken away eventually too).  The AAC is not, even if the Big12 loses its bid to the Sugar bowl and no longer a “power” conference (like what happened to the Big East) there is still lots of value in making the rules.

[TKthunder2 4,985]

20 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Or go small and try to schedule 4 OOC games with the SEC and Big 10/ACC each year. No D2 games etc. The ratings would at least show large improvements to sell their next deal. The buyout money covers losses (or used to invest in their product)

The best small conference would be 12. 8 conference games, 4 OOC games and a CCG.

Doing by best quick analysis, the schools that bring in the most eyeballs over the last decade are:

UCF, Cincy, BYU, Boise, Houston

[Huckleberry 32,848]

3 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

The best small conference would be 12. 8 conference games, 4 OOC games and a CCG.

Doing by best quick analysis, the schools that bring in the most eyeballs over the last decade are:

UCF, Cincy, BYU, Boise, Houston

Increasing inventory would be a decent play as well. I think you could go to 12 and drop UCF from that list (just too far out of place and away from everyone else). BYU, Boise St., Cincinnati, Houston would be decent adds to get them back to 12. And become the Big 12-2-2+2-2+4

[Neonmoon 38,129]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

And on top of the above, based on viewers numbers that were posted everywhere yesterday, Texas and OU were basically half the TV eyeballs of the whole conference. If the remaining 8 add two more schools who are roughly equal to their average TV value (easily possible) to keep the inventory the same in terms of number of games then they could try to negotiate only a 37.5% loss in TV contract value. 

That's not good but would only be a $7.5M per year loss. And TV contacts aren't the entire AD budget. That might mean only a 10% total revenue loss. Not fun but not a program and conference killer.

They can wait it out or at least negotiate as if they're willing to wait it out. On the other hand that would require strong conference leadership so good luck to them. 

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/five-quick-thoughts-on-television-deals-the-big-12-and-osus-future/
 

Thought it was 37.7 million per school? I guess TV is 20 million and the rest is other shit?

[Huckleberry 32,848]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/five-quick-thoughts-on-television-deals-the-big-12-and-osus-future/
 

Thought it was 37.7 million per school? I guess TV is 20 million and the rest is other shit?

That's my understanding, yes.

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

21 hours ago, mdmost said:

Paywall but worth reading

 

This is interesting, but Stewart misses the point in a few ways.

First off, he's just comparing the average viewership of the "leftover 8" compared with OU/Texas. The overall average of the 8 is drastically impacted by the relatively low ratings of KU, Baylor and TCU.  You need to look at the individual schools and what they do, not just the "average."  KU especially is dragging this down since basically about 12 KU fans watch every KU football game.

OSU, WVU and (to a lesser extent) Iowa State and K-State all do relatively well, even when adjusting for removing OU/Texas gams. Someone did the analysis on Twitter. Looking for it but can't find it now; will post later when I find it.  In any case, the conferences that may expand aren't FULL of teams that draw OU/Texas numbers.  So the question is, do the numbers that OSU, WVU or other pull create incremental value above what, say, the average member pulls in the PAC or B1G or ACC?  I'm guess almost certainly yes for the PAC or ACC... maybe not for B1G because I'm sure their average viewership is wildly skewed high by Ohio State and Michigan.

In any case, OF COURSE the leftover schools aren't pulling what OU/Texas does. But the question is IF the "end game" is 3 or 4 conferences with 16-20 teams in them, then the PAC, B1G or ACC would be smart to grab (at least) OSU, WVU, KU (for basketball) and ISU because they are the best of the "non-elite" tier of schools out there that (basically) don't have a home right now.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

59 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Increasing inventory would be a decent play as well. I think you could go to 12 and drop UCF from that list (just too far out of place and away from everyone else). BYU, Boise St., Cincinnati, Houston would be decent adds to get them back to 12. And become the Big 12-2-2+2-2+4

So are WV and BYU.  UCF is still perhaps the biggest G5 'brand' (Altuve height, but of course the B12 has limited actual choices), incremental benefits from planting the flag in Florida, good attendance (recent school, but lots of grads now), theoretical recruiting plus, and most importantly, public perception.  A top 30 Irate Eight playing a top 30 UCF is going to draw some viewers if in the right time slot.  B12 games could improve the mid-week slate.  UCF, BYU and Cincy should be at the top of the B12's expansion list.

But other than BYU, are the best options going to risk leaving a slightly poorer but at least somewhat safe home for a rental conference?  If the B12 does it right I could see some taking the gamble, but maybe not.  I guess as long as the MWC and AAC continue to exist the schools in the other might feel like they'd still have options in 2025.  And there's the potential that a B12 expansion done right, such as going to 16 or more with the best G5's to replace the AAC as the best midget would have staying potential past 2025.  But why would ESPN allow that?  They save more if they can keep the AAC intact and leave the Irate Eight with no better options than ESPN's discount brand AAC come 2025.

For similar reasons, I'm not certain Boise would take the short term pay increase and then at best, and no guarantee, be stuck with a long distance AAC membership post-2025.  So if no P5 offers any of the Irate Eight, than BYU + who?

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by clapclapclap

[Asithappens 974]

2 hours ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Why do you hate Bobby Knight?

And that drunk aggy dude. Billy Ray Cyrus Gillispie or something like that.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

25 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

So if no P5 offers any of the Irate Eight, than BYU + who?

*then, dammit

['stache 21,795]

1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

This is interesting, but Stewart misses the point in a few ways.

First off, he's just comparing the average viewership of the "leftover 8" compared with OU/Texas. The overall average of the 8 is drastically impacted by the relatively low ratings of KU, Baylor and TCU.  You need to look at the individual schools and what they do, not just the "average."  KU especially is dragging this down since basically about 12 KU fans watch every KU football game.

OSU, WVU and (to a lesser extent) Iowa State and K-State all do relatively well, even when adjusting for removing OU/Texas gams. Someone did the analysis on Twitter. Looking for it but can't find it now; will post later when I find it.  In any case, the conferences that may expand aren't FULL of teams that draw OU/Texas numbers.  So the question is, do the numbers that OSU, WVU or other pull create incremental value above what, say, the average member pulls in the PAC or B1G or ACC?  I'm guess almost certainly yes for the PAC or ACC... maybe not for B1G because I'm sure their average viewership is wildly skewed high by Ohio State and Michigan.

In any case, OF COURSE the leftover schools aren't pulling what OU/Texas does. But the question is IF the "end game" is 3 or 4 conferences with 16-20 teams in them, then the PAC, B1G or ACC would be smart to grab (at least) OSU, WVU, KU (for basketball) and ISU because they are the best of the "non-elite" tier of schools out there that (basically) don't have a home right now.

It’s also misleading in the context of value to another P4 conference. It’s not just ratings for OSU v Tech, but OSU v Oregon or USC, which would be good similar to us playing Texas or Florida State. And for the PAC specifically, its relevant whether more central timezone games would improve ratings. Unless you’re really going to Prestige Worldwide, you need good non-bluebloods on the schedule too, and we bring as much or more than most PAC schools not named UO or USC.

[Funk Doctor Spock 12,177]

3 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I don't even remember if Tech had a basketball team prior to Beard.

But for real, me either until they made that epic run. That's it. I was shocked that they had a program. That's how irrelevant they are.

[ABSR 5,308]

3 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

If TX and OU are willing to stroke a check, and leave in a year, playing a season at 8 teams could be disastrous. It’s a huge gamble the viewer numbers won’t further decline, thus further weakening their position. It’s even worse if they show success yet still no viewer increases. 

And when looking at the viewership numbers for the remaining 8, remember 2 of those 9 conference games were Texas and OU which had the much higher viewership numbers.  So unless the per school viewership numbers removes these two games then the actual average, even assuming the same viewership for a less relevant conference, would be lower.    So the product they will be showcasing for the next few years prior to renegotiating the TV deal will likely not show a great viewership product.

So waiting and taking the buyout money is the best option...unless a school has a P4 offer in which case they would (and should) take it quicker than I typed this post.

[TKthunder2 4,985]

For reference 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Right, so some of these numbers have been unfair to the big 3 of the remaining 8 (Tech, OkSU, ISU). Along with KU basketball, those guys deserve a top tier home when the reshuffling is finished. Games between those three:
 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

And keep in mind while ISU was really good last year, Tech hasn't been good in a while. 5th straight losing season and they're still drawing eyeballs against halfway decent opponents. Hell, Oklahoma State also drew over a million against Baylor, Kansas State, and West Virginia. 

[TKthunder2 4,985]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Right, so some of these numbers have been unfair to the big 3 of the remaining 8 (Tech, OkSU, ISU). Along with KU basketball, those guys deserve a top tier home when the reshuffling is finished. Games between those three:
 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

And keep in mind while ISU was really good last year, Tech hasn't been good in a while. 5th straight losing season and they're still drawing eyeballs against halfway decent opponents. Hell, Oklahoma State also drew over a million against Baylor, Kansas State, and West Virginia. 

Those ESPN2/FS1 games really hurt their averages, if I had time to analyze this more I’d write a comparison of these teams without UT/OU when they are on ABC/FOX vs ESPN vs ESPN2/ESPNU/FS1 as that would probably be a more accurate estimate of their real value.

Edited July 28, 2021 by TKthunder2

[clapclapclap 9,000]

I wouldn't read anything into the Tceh portion of the comment, just noting the slight change in tone of the Pac regarding academics in expansion.  But may not mean much in reality.

 

['stache 21,795]

So OSU v. ISU would have been the third highest rated game in the PAC, OSU v. Tech would have been 7th, and OSU v. KSU would be 8th. I think that’s pretty relevant.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2020/12/31/hotline-newsletter-usc-oregon-dominate-tv-ratings-for-the-2020-season/amp/

['stache 21,795]

7 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Those ESPN2/FS1 games really hurt their averages, if I had time to analyze this more I’d write a comparison of these teams without UT/OU when they are on ABC/FOX vs ESPN vs ESPN2/ESPNU/FS1 as that would probably be a more accurate estimate of their real value.

This too. I think we even had to play KSU one year on fucking ESPN+ When one or both teams were ranked. Completely unfair to use that as a real rating.

[PatrickMcHorn 376]

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

And on top of the above, based on viewers numbers that were posted everywhere yesterday, Texas and OU were basically half the TV eyeballs of the whole conference. If the remaining 8 add two more schools who are roughly equal to their average TV value (easily possible) to keep the inventory the same in terms of number of games then they could try to negotiate only a 37.5% loss in TV contract value. 

That's not good but would only be a $7.5M per year loss. And TV contacts aren't the entire AD budget. That might mean only a 10% total revenue loss. Not fun but not a program and conference killer.

They can wait it out or at least negotiate as if they're willing to wait it out. On the other hand that would require strong conference leadership so good luck to them. 

I'd imagine too that they could throw their 3rd tier rights in (I think they're all currently individually sold out to either fox or ESPN).  Theoretically it's a zero sum game, but that might help the perception of the casual observer.  

[Huckleberry 32,848]

26 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

For reference 

Craziest value in that chart is 2.36M for TCU/KSU at 4:00pm ET on Fox. Totally doesn't match the rest of TCU's numbers. They're basically a ratings killer for every game except that one. Did they have a huge game before them and after them that day or something?

[JimmyJames 12,271]

One thing OSU has going in their favor is that people in Oklahoma really like to watch college football. It’s the number 2 state per capita after Alabama. They even watch a lot of sec games. That’s why OSU has the 3rd best TV ratings in the big 12. 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

So OSU v. ISU would have been the third highest rated game in the PAC, OSU v. Tech would have been 7th, and OSU v. KSU would be 8th. I think that’s pretty relevant.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mercurynews.com/2020/12/31/hotline-newsletter-usc-oregon-dominate-tv-ratings-for-the-2020-season/amp/

Further to that, I'd take this list with a grain of salt, but still interesting to see how B12 schools rank compared to other P5's, and possible B12 targets:

 

[TKthunder2 4,985]

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Craziest value in that chart is 2.36M for TCU/KSU at 4:00pm ET on Fox. Totally doesn't match the rest of TCU's numbers. They're basically a ratings killer for every game except that one. Did they have a huge game before them and after them that day or something?

They beat Texas the week before (thanks Ingram)

[TKthunder2 4,985]

3 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Further to that, I'd take this list with a grain of salt, but still interesting to see how B12 schools rank compared to other P5's, and possible B12 targets:

 

We need to up our Twitter game (such a weird thing I’d never thought I’d be saying)

also LULZ @ Mizzou.

[KYHorn 17,014]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Craziest value in that chart is 2.36M for TCU/KSU at 4:00pm ET on Fox. Totally doesn't match the rest of TCU's numbers. They're basically a ratings killer for every game except that one. Did they have a huge game before them and after them that day or something?

Maybe it was a College Gameday game?

 

 

 

 

 

['stache 21,795]

I didn’t realize how bad Baylor’s ratings were. I really hope they get relegated and we find a spot.

[PatrickMcHorn 376]

11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Craziest value in that chart is 2.36M for TCU/KSU at 4:00pm ET on Fox. Totally doesn't match the rest of TCU's numbers. They're basically a ratings killer for every game except that one. Did they have a huge game before them and after them that day or something?

This is 2020, right?  I would guess those numbers are fucked up for that game.  Texas/OU was that day and went into quadruple overtime on FOX.  I don't remember, but I'm guessing we bled into their timeslot, and whatever data is being used on the chart isn't sophisticated enough to know their game wasn't the one being shown when data was being collected.

Edited July 28, 2021 by PatrickMcHorn
I type like a middle school girl on my phone.

[TKthunder2 4,985]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I didn’t realize how bad Baylor’s ratings were. I really hope they get relegated and we find a spot.

I hope they join CUSA, but to be fair they only had 2 games on ABC/Fox.

OU on Fox and WVU on ABC

Their WVU game on ABC pulled 1.79mil, Okie ASR’s game versus WVU only pulled 1.45mil.

Fuck fairness, I hope they rot in hell.

[KYHorn 17,014]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Increasing inventory would be a decent play as well. I think you could go to 12 and drop UCF from that list (just too far out of place and away from everyone else). BYU, Boise St., Cincinnati, Houston would be decent adds to get them back to 12. And become the Big 12-2-2+2-2+4

Hmm, I think this makes a lot of sense. Cincy would help keep WVU in the geographic fold, BYU and Boise would pair together well, and Houston would help recapture some of the lost Texas market (a fraction, but some).

2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

So are WV and BYU.  UCF is still perhaps the biggest G5 'brand' (Altuve height, but of course the B12 has limited actual choices), incremental benefits from planting the flag in Florida, good attendance (recent school, but lots of grads now), theoretical recruiting plus, and most importantly, public perception.  A top 30 Irate Eight playing a top 30 UCF is going to draw some viewers if in the right time slot.  B12 games could improve the mid-week slate.  UCF, BYU and Cincy should be at the top of the B12's expansion list.

But other than BYU, are the best options going to risk leaving a slightly poorer but at least somewhat safe home for a rental conference?  If the B12 does it right I could see some taking the gamble, but maybe not.  I guess as long as the MWC and AAC continue to exist the schools in the other might feel like they'd still have options in 2025.  And there's the potential that a B12 expansion done right, such as going to 16 or more with the best G5's to replace the AAC as the best midget would have staying potential past 2025.  But why would ESPN allow that?  They save more if they can keep the AAC intact and leave the Irate Eight with no better options than ESPN's discount brand AAC come 2025.

For similar reasons, I'm not certain Boise would take the short term pay increase and then at best, and no guarantee, be stuck with a long distance AAC membership post-2025.  So if no P5 offers any of the Irate Eight, than BYU + who?

 

That's an interesting question, but I could see a UH or Cincy taking a shot at it because it would still elevate their exposure for the next round of changes. 

UCF really would be on an island, while Cincy/WVU and Boise/BYU go together. With 12 teams, you could have 2 divisions to minimize the difficulties of those two groups having to travel too much. Haven't thought that through much- just an idea.

[Huckleberry 32,848]

42 minutes ago, PatrickMcHorn said:

This is 2020, right?  I would guess those numbers are fucked up for that game.  Texas/OU was that day and went into quadruple overtime on FOX.  I don't remember, but I'm guessing we bled into their timeslot, and whatever data is being used on the chart isn't sophisticated enough to know their game wasn't the one being shown when data was being collected.

That makes a lot of sense.

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Straight averages from the viewership chart

 

[bullet 1,596]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Craziest value in that chart is 2.36M for TCU/KSU at 4:00pm ET on Fox. Totally doesn't match the rest of TCU's numbers. They're basically a ratings killer for every game except that one. Did they have a huge game before them and after them that day or something?

TCU had 3 FS1 and 2 ESPN2 games.  That's why overall they are so low.

[Dnaguy 11,919]

5 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

They should just go hyper-regional or maybe just have the entry requirement be that there can't be more than 10 foot elevation change in the city limits.

• OSU
• Tulsa
• Oral Roberts
• Kansas State
• Kansas
• Nebraska
• Texas Tech
• Wichita State

 

Flat Earth Conference.

The FEC.

As in:

What in the FEC are we all doing here?

[HookEm 2,463]

There are about 1.8M people in Texas Tech's core region of the Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin and West Central Texas (e.g. Abilene).  That area is growing at a decent rate compared to a lot of our country and has money fueled by O&G.  That is bigger than 12-13 entire states and doesn't even consider the huge metro areas like DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio or El Paso that have a lot of Tech grads. 

I would love to see the viewership chart from the Mike Leach years. I bet they outdrew everyone except UT and OU.  Baylor's viewership is pathetic given how competitive they have been as a program.

The PAC-10 is crazy if they don't add Tech and Oklahoma State. They are both about like Arizona State / Utah and better than Washington State, Oregon State, Cal and Arizona, and vastly better and more strategic than whatever else they might be forced to add.

[Bevo14 8,303]

11 minutes ago, HookEm said:

There are about 1.8M people in Texas Tech's core region of the Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin and West Central Texas (e.g. Abilene).  That area is growing at a decent rate compared to a lot of our country and has money fueled by O&G.  That is bigger than 12-13 entire states and doesn't even consider the huge metro areas like DFW, Houston, Austin, San Antonio or El Paso that have a lot of Tech grads. 

I would love to see the viewership chart from the Mike Leach years. I bet they outdrew everyone except UT and OU.  Baylor's viewership is pathetic given how competitive they have been as a program.

The PAC-10 is crazy if they don't add Tech and Oklahoma State. They are both about like Arizona State / Utah and better than Washington State, Oregon State, Cal and Arizona, and vastly better and more strategic than whatever else they might be forced to add.

They could also add Kansas and Iowa State if the Big 10 doesn't take them.

Edited July 28, 2021 by Bevo14

[Hookah Horns 3,083]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Right, so some of these numbers have been unfair to the big 3 of the remaining 8 (Tech, OkSU, ISU). Along with KU basketball, those guys deserve a top tier home when the reshuffling is finished. Games between those three:
 

Tech/ISU - 1.38M
ISU/OkSU - 2.81M
Tech/OkSU - 2.12M

And keep in mind while ISU was really good last year, Tech hasn't been good in a while. 5th straight losing season and they're still drawing eyeballs against halfway decent opponents. Hell, Oklahoma State also drew over a million against Baylor, Kansas State, and West Virginia. 

I'm guessing a good chunk of those numbers include fans of other Big 12 teams, like many of us. I wonder how portable those numbers  are to the Pac, where enthusiasm for college football is quite a bit lower.

['stache 21,795]

24 minutes ago, bullet said:

TCU had 3 FS1 and 2 ESPN2 games.  That's why overall they are so low.

Isn't that also relevant regarding how strong a draw the programs are? According to the chart we were on ESPN, ABC, or Fox for all but one game which was on ESPN2. That means the networks like us and viewers like us, even when we aren't playing OU or Texas.

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Okay, using the 2020 viewership chart and then iterating like always, here are the final ratings for the 2020 Big 12 teams, time slots, and channels in terms of expected viewers.

Teams

1. Texas - 2,751,166
2. Oklahoma - 2,576,193
3. Oklahoma St. - 2,038,146
4. Iowa St. - 1,655,927
5. Kansas St. - 1,427,401
6. West Virginia - 1,390,635
7. Texas Tech - 1,347,160
8. TCU - 1,216,039
9. Baylor - 1,030,503
10. Kansas - 694,376

Time slots

1. Early - 1,727,503
2. Prime Time - 1,563,927
3. Day - 1,529,553

Channels

1. ABC - 2,326,857
2. FOX - 2,130,227
3. ESPN - 1,098,699
4. FS1 - 864,138
5. ESPNU - 768,794
6. ESPN2 - 751,160

So theoretically to get an expected viewership total you would do this:

Team 1 + Team 2 + Time Slot + Channel - 3*Overall Average (the overall average was 1,615,405)

For example, Texas vs. Oklahoma estimate would be

2,751,166 + 2,576,193 + 1,727,503 + 2,130,227 - 4,846,215 = 4,338,874

which it outperformed. Now this is not perfect, of course, because Baylor/Kansas would be predicted to have negative viewership, but it's a good baseline for eyeball power. Of course you also have to adjust a bit for team strength. A stronger Texas Tech would be higher, for example. A weaker Iowa St. would be lower.

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Might be more useful to look at the team ratings based on viewers added instead of expected

1. Texas - 1,135,761
2. Oklahoma - 960,788
3. Oklahoma St. - 422,741
4. Iowa St. - 40,522
5. Kansas St. - (188,004)
6. West Virginia - (224,770)
7. Texas Tech - (268,245)
8. TCU - (399,366)
9. Baylor - (584,901)
10. Kansas - (921,029)

So that's the number of viewers playing each team would expect to add to your viewership.

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Sorry for three posts in a row but holy shit look at that last list. UT is the only Big 12 school from the State of Texas that didn't decrease viewership by showing up in a Big 12 game on TV. I'm a little softer on Texas Tech than most and realize they wouldn't have done that if they weren't in the middle of a losing season streak but wow.

Meanwhile the legislature is meeting to tell us how evil we are for leaving.

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

For reference 

Awesome. Thanks man. This is exactly what I was looking for.

Jesus, fuck... KU... they are lucky they're elite at basketball. NOBODY is watching their games.

And Baylor... they are fucked.  

[oSuJeff97 3,435]

32 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Might be more useful to look at the team ratings based on viewers added instead of expected

1. Texas - 1,135,761
2. Oklahoma - 960,788
3. Oklahoma St. - 422,741
4. Iowa St. - 40,522
5. Kansas St. - (188,004)
6. West Virginia - (224,770)
7. Texas Tech - (268,245)
8. TCU - (399,366)
9. Baylor - (584,901)
10. Kansas - (921,029)

So that's the number of viewers playing each team would expect to add to your viewership.

Excellent work here.

Also reinforces my theory that OSU will end up somewhere good.

We are good on the field in every sport and (most importantly) we draw a solid number of eyeballs in football, even when we aren't playing OU/Texas.