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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


LTtxfan

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8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Ray Perryman. He’s done a great job of branding himself as “the state’s leading economist.” What he hasn’t done is….be a good economist.

Quite a few years ago, an opposing party hired him as their big-name expert. I’ve never destroyed an “expert” on cross as easily as I did Perryman. And the fun part was using his own previous work against him (he’s a publicity whore, so it’s all out there). His analysis here is utterly one-sided. He isn’t opining about net jobs in Texas. He’s only looking at the loss side of the ledger. Which is what he does: offer utterly incomplete and thus false analyses.

Perryman has always been a fraud. He says what he’s paid to say; but most of the time, his analysis is sorely lacking facts. At least all the facts. I’ve never liked the guy. 

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3 hours ago, Okie State said:

I don't really have an issue with t-shirt fans in that it's obvious you need them to grow your brand and that's what everyone is trying to do. I start to get annoyed when they move past sports and talk shit about the school I graduated from and refer to it as a community college or some other bullshit ignorant dig. This is what I grew up with in Oklahoma where everyone is a POS Sooner fan and many of them never stepped foot in a classroom.

Having to hear those digs from this guy must suck.

 

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4 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

Yeah, right there with you.  Texas '92, We live in Fairhope, AL.   Soon to be Senior daughter is looking at Bama, Auburn,Texas of course (but wont get in unfortunately, though ive tried to warn her), Ole Miss and TCU.  I told her Texas is too damn competitive for oos.  Auburn is her first choice.

My son's at Auburn.  Is very happy there.  Wife is a Georgia Bulldog, so it was hard at first, but she likes the campus atmosphere.  With Covid he didn't really have a chance to look at UT-Arlington, but I figured it would be too "commuter for him."  He was really thinking of them as a way to get to Austin, but they no longer do the automatic transfer to Austin there.  I think its only UTSA and UTRGV that have that program.

We went to  a Texas recruiting "seminar" in Atlanta.  They told him to be sure to mention in his essay that he had a Dad who was a UT alum ('80) so they would have some idea of why he was interested.  But there was just no way.  He does have a friend who made it to Texas, but she had a really high GPA and SAT.

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UT Arlington is trying hard to get that National Research University Foundation money.  Houston, Texas Tech and UT-Dallas have qualified.  UTA, UTSA, UTEP, UNT and Texas St. are eligible, but UTA is the only one with any realistic shot anytime soon.  They are trying hard to have a "quality student body," which is one of the criteria to qualify.  The NRUF is something the state has thrown to the non-PUF schools to try to get them to be more AAU-like.  Rather than just giving the money to Houston, Texas Tech, and UTD who they knew would win the competition, they created a competition to keep a the politicians happy.

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On 7/30/2021 at 7:21 PM, Armybrat said:

Saw this posted on the CD forum....

In a second economic scenario, assuming the Big 12 were to dissolve and its members university sports programs leave for other conferences, he predicts the Big 12 schools could lose up to $1.3 billion and more than 18,000 jobs…

Really?  That seems like a lot of jobs.  I wonder if there are even that many jobs to lose.

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21 minutes ago, bullet said:

UT Arlington is trying hard to get that National Research University Foundation money.  Houston, Texas Tech and UT-Dallas have qualified.  UTA, UTSA, UTEP, UNT and Texas St. are eligible, but UTA is the only one with any realistic shot anytime soon.  They are trying hard to have a "quality student body," which is one of the criteria to qualify.  The NRUF is something the state has thrown to the non-PUF schools to try to get them to be more AAU-like.  Rather than just giving the money to Houston, Texas Tech, and UTD who they knew would win the competition, they created a competition to keep a the politicians happy.

UTA and UTSA are close, biggest needs for that funding revolves around endowment size and faculty, which both could be helped by this funding.  The UT-system really wants these to get to UTD’s level, so they can focus then focus on growing/developing UTEP, UTRGV, and UT-Tyler.

national-research-university-fund-eligib

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6 hours ago, Okie State said:

I don't really have an issue with t-shirt fans in that it's obvious you need them to grow your brand and that's what everyone is trying to do. I start to get annoyed when they move past sports and talk shit about the school I graduated from and refer to it as a community college or some other bullshit ignorant dig. This is what I grew up with in Oklahoma where everyone is a POS Sooner fan and many of them never stepped foot in a classroom.

 

Enjoy the AAC fuck stain.   

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13 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

Sweat Auburn? Sweat Auburn over Bama? Gosh times have certainly changed. Some of the dumbest people I have ever met were Auburn grads. Nice that UTA offered your son some real perks. Where is he heading?

Username is pretty darn correct.

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3 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

I’m currently busy coming up with ways UT can fuck over our new SEC brethren, as well new fun ways to burn the motherfucking SEC to the ground!!! Cause that’s what we do, right?!?! Then we’ll destroy ESPN and television as a whole!!!

You do that, and I might convert...

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Many, many SEC fans stay in Austin and drive down to Aggy games. Austin doesn’t really need it, but there will be a nice little boom in the hospitality industry with the SEC move. 



Not sure I follow the math here. Those folks were coming to Austin before we made the move. Those same folks will make the trip twice now, but unless they all travel significantly better than our current opponents then it doesn’t make that much of a difference.
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17 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

And that person should obviously be @Brisketexan because he has done it before.

If you add UTEP, UTSA, UTA, Texas State, Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, and Abilene Christian....that's a 14 school conference. 

Este. Apparently UH has become more selective than aggy, but that's not saying much. But UH is not an easy school by any means and they deserve a better academic reputation. Same goes for UTD and I would even venture as far as to throw UTA in that group if we're talking about academics.

UTD yes.  UH no way.  See any and every kid in the Katy school district do the A&M thing or UH.  Some due to money, but mostly academics.  Putting UH in the conversation is not great for your position except maybe a homer.

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Per the FWST, sounds like Baylor, Tech, and TCU are shopping themselves as a “package deal” to other conferences. 

If true and you’re a Tech fan, I would be livid.

 

but...why? 3 teams? 2 religious schools? Negligible Alumni? HEAVY bagage?

 

One of these things is not like the other....

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2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Per the FWST, sounds like Baylor, Tech, and TCU are shopping themselves as a “package deal” to other conferences. 

If true and you’re a Tech fan, I would be livid.

 

That's dumb as hell.  Should be with Okie Lite, if anyone else.

Maybe Pickens State told us to fuck off?

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2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Per the FWST, sounds like Baylor, Tech, and TCU are shopping themselves as a “package deal” to other conferences. 

If true and you’re a Tech fan, I would be livid.

 

This makes no sense.  Baylor and tcu need Tech more than Tech needs them.  This, if true, is a poor move by Tech.  But then again they have a history of making bad decisions.

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3 minutes ago, slorch said:

That's dumb as hell.  Should be with Okie Lite, if anyone else.

Maybe Pickens State told us to fuck off?

Agreed it’s dumb as hell, for so many reasons.

OSU, Tech and WVU have the least to worry about of the leftovers. None of them need to form an “alliance” with other schools.

But I get it it, in terms of packaging Texas schools. If you’re going to do it, do with TCU so you can bring the Metroplex. And then you tell Baylor to fuck right off. It’s BETTER for Tech if they get left out. 

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1 minute ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Agreed it’s dumb as hell, for so many reasons.

OSU, Tech and WVU have the least to worry about of the leftovers. None of them need to form an “alliance” with other schools.

But I get it it, in terms of packaging Texas schools. If you’re going to do it, do with TCU so you can bring the Metroplex. And then you tell Baylor to fuck right off. It’s BETTER for Tech if they get left out. 

TCU doesn't deliver DFW though. Tech gives more in that regard in its own right.

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Yeah, coupling with TCU isn't the worst idea in the world.  They bring a media market, they're still kinda running on fumes of success in football and baseball.  

Baylor and Kansas State should accept their fate now, it's less painful and more dignified.  

I guess there's still a salvageable Big XII plan in here somewhere with 2-4 new members.  It won't be dictated by the status level of those prospective members but rather by which other offers Tech, OSU, Kansas, and ISU get...in that order.  TCU's really in the most awkward nebulous of all the schools, it's the biggest question mark; things could go really well for them or totally implode.  But as I said, if you're a Baylor fan or KSU fan, your time in high level college athletics is at its end.  

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It's horse shit:

 

Officials from TCU, Tech and Baylor have already discussed coming together as a trio and packaging itself to another power conference such as the Pac-12. TCU, Tech and Baylor may be more attractive together than individually. They would have to sell the Pac-12 or another conference such as the Big Ten on the importance of expanding their respective footprint into Texas.

However, a conference such as the Pac-12 may feel it can accomplish the “Texas footprint” goal by adding only two of the three schools. If that is the case, it may not be possible for all three to stay together.

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23 minutes ago, slorch said:

That's dumb as hell.  Should be with Okie Lite, if anyone else.

Maybe Pickens State told us to fuck off?

100% Tech and Ok State should be pitching together.  Good baseball and basketball and other Olympic sports.  Big public universities. 

Baylor and TCU should fuck right off 

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I don’t think it’s the worst idea for some of those teams to try to sell themselves as a package deal to PAC or ACC but with the AAC already having UH, SMU and Tulsa I think the better option would be for Tech, TCU and Okie Lite to join up with them. Try to get ESPN to redo the AAC contract and ask for a bigger slice of the pie. The AAC should then make sure that anytime Texas and aggy aren’t on TV their Texas teams are. It would make for a great second tier Texas market and when an Okie Lite or TCU made the playoffs it would bring credibility to the conference. It would take time to develop but I think the AAC could become a great big 12 substitute  and Tech, TCU and Okie Lite could be the leaders of that conference. Baylor can go back to being a junior college no one cares about. 

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32 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Per the FWST, sounds like Baylor, Tech, and TCU are shopping themselves as a “package deal” to other conferences. 

If true and you’re a Tech fan, I would be livid.

 

At a minimum adding Baylor to the package. I guess the Basketball NC is a feather, but my god they seem toxic with their history and devout religious connections which typically run contrary to the politics of large state institutions of public education. 
 

Maybe I’m just biased, but I would consider them an anchor. 
 

unfortunately for tech (and really the rest/majority of the remaining 8 it’s going to be difficult to land in a power conference. Most likely they realize this and then add small markets to the 12 and take the buyout money. 

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TCU does NOT bring the metroplex. Tech needs to distance themselves from every school except Oklahoma State.  And possibly Kansas.

I went to LinkedIn and pulled alumni by school for DFW and Houston metro areas.  Tech has just about as many alumni in DFW as UT and also has a decent presence in Houston.  That is beyond their strong position in the 2M population in the Panhandle and South Plains.

They need to be marketing to the PAC-10 that they give them:

  1. A foothold in Texas for recruiting
  2. Eyeballs in DFW and Houston
  3. Central time-zone game times
  4. Competitive teams in most sports
  5. Improving academics
  6. A very willing and motivated partner in Oklahoma State

Dallas + Ft Worth

  • 142,027 – North Texas
  • 110,037 – UT Arlington
  • 76,036 – UT Dallas 
  • 63,992 – Texas A&M
  • 47,212 – UT Austin
  • 47,039 – Texas Tech
  • 42,684 – SMU
  • 31,061 – TCU
  • 22,230 – Baylor
  • 17,797 – OU
  • 16,703 – Texas State
  • 15,297 – OSU
  • 11,319 – Arkansas
  • 9,896 – Houston
  • 8,091 – LSU
  • 5,719 – UTSA

Houston

  • 158,631 – Houston
  • 84,608 – Texas A&M
  • 52,535 – UT Austin
  • 30,912 – Texas Tech
  • 22,065 – Texas State
  • 14,807 – LSU
  • 12,337 – Baylor
  • 9,986 – UTSA
  • 9,016 – North Texas
  • 8,650 – UT-Arlington
  • 6,405 – OU
  • 5,372 – OSU
  • 4,280 – SMU
  • 3,794 – UT Dallas

Houston would be vastly better than Baylor for a variety of reasons. The PAC-12 could do MUCH worse than a 4-some of Tech, Okie State, Houston and Kansas.  

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39 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, coupling with TCU isn't the worst idea in the world.  They bring a media market, they're still kinda running on fumes of success in football and baseball.  

Baylor and Kansas State should accept their fate now, it's less painful and more dignified.  

I guess there's still a salvageable Big XII plan in here somewhere with 2-4 new members.  It won't be dictated by the status level of those prospective members but rather by which other offers Tech, OSU, Kansas, and ISU get...in that order.  TCU's really in the most awkward nebulous of all the schools, it's the biggest question mark; things could go really well for them or totally implode.  But as I said, if you're a Baylor fan or KSU fan, your time in high level college athletics is at its end.  

If we end up with 4x16, I think K-State probably finds a home.  They are a large public university that has good solid football and basketball programs with decent viewership numbers.

But yeah, Baylor is fucked, which is glorious.

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14 minutes ago, HookEm said:

TCU does NOT bring the metroplex. Tech needs to distance themselves from every school except Oklahoma State.  And possibly Kansas.

I went to LinkedIn and pulled alumni by school for DFW and Houston metro areas.  Tech has just about as many alumni in DFW as UT and also has a decent presence in Houston.  That is beyond their strong position in the 2M population in the Panhandle and South Plains.

They need to be marketing to the PAC-10 that they give them:

  1. A foothold in Texas for recruiting
  2. Eyeballs in DFW and Houston
  3. Central time-zone game times
  4. Competitive teams in most sports
  5. Improving academics
  6. A very willing and motivated partner in Oklahoma State

Dallas + Ft Worth

  • 142,027 – North Texas
  • 110,037 – UT Arlington
  • 76,036 – UT Dallas 
  • 63,992 – Texas A&M
  • 47,212 – UT Austin
  • 47,039 – Texas Tech
  • 42,684 – SMU
  • 31,061 – TCU
  • 22,230 – Baylor
  • 17,797 – OU
  • 16,703 – Texas State
  • 15,297 – OSU
  • 11,319 – Arkansas
  • 9,896 – Houston
  • 8,091 – LSU
  • 5,719 – UTSA

Houston

  • 158,631 – Houston
  • 84,608 – Texas A&M
  • 52,535 – UT Austin
  • 30,912 – Texas Tech
  • 22,065 – Texas State
  • 14,807 – LSU
  • 12,337 – Baylor
  • 9,986 – UTSA
  • 9,016 – North Texas
  • 8,650 – UT-Arlington
  • 6,405 – OU
  • 5,372 – OSU
  • 4,280 – SMU
  • 3,794 – UT Dallas

Houston would be vastly better than Baylor for a variety of reasons. The PAC-12 could do MUCH worse than a 4-some of Tech, Okie State, Houston and Kansas.  

I said earlier in this thread Tech and UH would be a good package for the PAC 12.  But someone said nobody watches UH in Houston, yet they have the largest draw there by a significant amount. Well not draw neccessarily, but alumni.

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1 hour ago, UDontKnow said:

It used to be pretty much open acceptance up until twenty years ago. That's a major reason it became a commuter school.

I’ve interviewed probably more than 1,000 people and had at least 1000 work for me. UH grads, by far, are the best on average of any of them. That includes tons of UT, ATM, and Ivy types. All things equal, hire the hot woman. All things equal beyond that, hire the UH grad. They come in acting like they have something to prove and the foundation they’re working from (business, economics or comms degrees for our stuff usually) is terrific. 

UT people are either amazeballs or need to have their entitled asses fired in week one. Ivy and Stanford are the same. ATM 2%ers are fine but the redasses, and they’re decent at hiding until your hire them, are absolute toxic trash. Tech and also-ran Texas schools are often fine if not high ceiling. I used to think LSU people were below state of Texas GEDs, but the last three I’ve had on a team were smoking hot and better workers. 

Rice people are few and far between in the business world but usually excellent. As a rule, don’t hire Baylor people. Anyway, what were we discussing?

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The "issue" with "t-shirt fans" for people has always simply baffled me. Why the fuck am I supposed to care about whether or not a fan of a school graduated from that school? Why does that matter? If someone wants to cheer for a given school because they like their colors, their brand, their city, they graduated from there, their friends' daughter goes there, whatever. Why is any of that wrong?
I was raised by people who didn't finish college. My earliest memory of watching a CFB game with my dad was the Cotton Bowl between Texas and UGA. Seeing him lose his shit and damned near cry over what happened was deeply impactful. The guy couldn't even get out of his chair to eat dinner that night he was so upset. I was hooked. I cheered for Texas from that day forward and it was fucking entrenched.
I ended up going to UT and getting my degree from there, but not a fucking thing has changed regarding how I think about the athletics programs from childhood to now. The degree changed none of it. Who the fuck is anyone else to tell someone who they can cheer for or how to cheer? I've seen the "good fan" and "you're a bad fan for not doing x, y, and z like me" tropes thrown out on the boards since finding the GoBig12 boards in 1997 while in college. I've eaten idiots alive on the boards for doing so for just about as long. The "t-shirt fan" logic fits right into that bullshit. There is no substance to the position that people who cheer for a school should only be people who graduated from that school. None. 

This. I just don’t get it. If you had to have attended the school to be a fan, very few programs would be able to exist, much less be huge profit generators. Such a stupid thing to focus on. You like Texas, great! Me too! I don’t give a shit if you attended. In fact, I think that’s even better in some cases. Those folks don’t have any secondary reasons for their fandom (e.g., “well I spent a shit ton of money, and I’ll still paying them back for the next few decades, so I guess I kinda have to root for them”). They’re just fans 100% because they have always liked the program.
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Tceh+TCU+Baylor is probably a political move.  If no P4 bites, then they can tell the politicians, "Hey, we tried."  Doesn't stop them from later shopping around or accepting lone offers.

Likely a non-starter for the Pac (unless Fox/USC is/are really pushing this for some reason) and B1G, but in theory has a shot at working with the ACC.  Last week the previous ESPN president, John Skipper, said that while basketball is only about 20% of a school's value, in the ACC it's more like 35%.  So Baylor's title and recent bball history might save them.  I wouldn't predict it, but possible.  But in that scenario does the ACC really need TCU?

OTOH, Skipper also said the ACC is concerned about saving spot 16 for ND.  Which makes no sense to me, why is 16 a magical number that no conference might go beyond?  Obviously if the B1G raids the best of the Pac, they aren't taking just 2 (non-football travel too painful if you don't have enough schools for a west coast division/pod/commune).  I have a hard time believing any conference would ever turn down ND.  And I'm skeptical that we'll ever end up with a tidy 4x16.

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The ACC only has 2 spots left, assuming the SEC is done with expanding. Given Notre Dame has a standing offer, I doubt they'd grab Tech or oSu out on an island 4-5 states removed from their closest option. The ACC already got their new TV deal recently. I doubt ESPN going to want to open that back up for Tech or oSu. So then it's the ACC having to split their existing pie 1-2 more ways. Don't see that happening unless Notre Dame is in, which they have no reason to be. 

The key in all this is the other conference really don't have to make a move unless they have defections. The Big 10 is fine because they have the most money. If tOSU makes the playoff, that's really all that matters as none of the rest are really ever that close. The ACC is getting a regular playoff member in there with Clemson.  The Pac 12 can't really make a move that nets them more money. They could reach for Tech/TCU/oSu but that's not going to make the networks pay up and probably accelerates their demise. The AAC merger is the best option. Grabbing 2-4 more teams to make the Big 12 solvent isn't going to work long term either because no network is going to want to pay up in 2024.

Edited by mdmost
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2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Again, why is 16 supposedly a hard cap for the ACC, but not the B1G?

Adding teams should boost revenue and TV dollars to the conference (and conference schools), otherwise you are just splitting the same media money pie into smaller slices for each school.  Texas and OU will boost TV revenue to the SEC due to their history and current high ratings.  

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