Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

3 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

If we go to 12 playoff, the L8 won’t be taking a spot from the SEC.   if the playoff stays at 4 there is no way in hell that any B12 eventuality gets an auto playoff spot, thus no way they are taking a spot away from SEC.  
 

maybe if you could convince aggy to go back…. It still wouldn’t give the B12 an auto berth, but it sure would be great and those rubes probably think they are important enough.

Before you get too upset with UT keep in mind we might be joining SEC so we can take down yet another conference, the old “if you cant beat them, kill them”.  It’s apparently what we do.

If the playoff goes to 12, and they have automatic bids for the SEC, ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, and Big 12 champions, that's a slot that isn't going to an SEC non-champ.

The current 12 team proposal doesn't have automatic bids.  

The whole point of this Alliance seems to be to prevent the passing of this current 12 team proposal, and there are enough schools in that Alliance to do exactly that.

My hypothetical is completely contingent on an expanded playoff with objective qualifying criteria.

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

8 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The current CFB is nothing more than than a television contract. Maybe that changes when the CFB expands, but it might not. So let's say for argument's sake, ESPN determines who receives the 5 or 6 guaranteed spots. Let's say it's 5. Are they going to give the last spot to the AAC (they own 100% of the TV rights) or the Big 12 (50-50 ESPN/Fox split). The Irate 8 is playing a dangerous game here. They risk alienating ESPN, and losing Power 5 status. 

If the PAC 12, Big Ten, and ACC are unreceptive to expansion, I would suggest the Irate 8 approach ESPN about a merger with the AAC. It would be a big, unwieldly conference spread across the United States, but it would provide plenty of content for ESPN +. 

The Pac, et all aren't unreceptive to expansion.  They're unreceptive to the current proposal which has a whole lot of "at large" and ESPN controlling the entire thing, which we all know, if ever enacted, would contain about 6-8 SEC teams.  Surly posters seemed quite annoyed by this prior to SEC membership, IIRC.

The scenario you pointed out, with ESPN determining the spots while owning the playoff and the SEC, is EXACTLY what everyone outside of the SEC is so fucking mad about and looking to stop.  

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

As another posted mentioned, I think the Pac 12 is going to push hard for expansion.  They've only made the 4 team format twice.  The ACC hasn't had anyone other than Clemson in it, and the Big 10 has even been left out.

I think everyone wants expansion.  The battle will be over the format.  

[LTtxfan 49373]

Hope yah stick around and keep posting on Surly...

Good stuff !!!  @Al_4_ISU

[Vertigo 20336]

40 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

As another posted mentioned, I think the Pac 12 is going to push hard for expansion.  They've only made the 4 team format twice.  The ACC hasn't had anyone other than Clemson in it, and the Big 10 has even been left out.

I think everyone wants expansion.  The battle will be over the format.  

The B12 is in a tough spot obviously. Even if they do expand, I think it is a certainty that they lose their P5 status. So does expanding to become a new G5 make sense for those schools that would join the conference? Fox sure as hell isn't going to pay them, so why make the move at all? This all feels like Bowlsby is desperately clinging to the last 4 years of TV revenue and then he won't have a leg to stand on. Even if expansion happens I can see Fox telling him to fuck right off because the contract is getting slashed next year due to material changes in conference makeup and demographics. 

[LTtxfan 49373]

Hope yah stick around and keep posting on Surly...

Good stuff !!!  @Al_4_ISU 

Assume B12/AAC merge and also get automatic bid.  Do you think SEC will agree to 4 team maximum from a conference in CFP??

Projected CFP Slots

• SEC      most likely 3 or 4
• B10       most likely 2 or 3
• ACC      most likely 2 or 3
• PAC       most likely 1 or 2
• B12/AAC  most likely 1
• G5          occasionally 1
• Independent     occasionally 1

*5 automatic spots:  ACC, B10, Pac12, SEC, B12/AAC

 

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by LTtxfan
Had B12 listed twice

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

3 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

The B12 is in a tough spot obviously. Even if they do expand, I think it is a certainty that they lose their P5 status. So does expanding to become a new G5 make sense for those schools that would join the conference? Fox sure as hell isn't going to pay them, so why make the move at all? This all feels like Bowlsby is desperately clinging to the last 4 years of TV revenue and then he won't have a leg to stand on. Even if expansion happens I can see Fox telling him to fuck right off because the contract is getting slashed next year due to material changes in conference makeup and demographics. 

The Irate 8 are all schools that have always been in a power conference.  They aren't G5 schools even if they aren't blue bloods.  With the now very recent exception of the SEC, every power conference was (and the others still are) a handful of blue bloods and a bunch of schools like the 8.

I don't think the Big 12 exists in 5 years.  I think most schools, if not all, (I could see Baylor in the ACC with Notre Dame keeping the Independent thing) will be absorbed into the Pac/ACC/B1G.  But if that doesn't happen, AND the playoff goes to 12 teams, the Big 12 can expand and be in some nether-region of clearly ahead of the G5 and clearly behind the power leagues with blue bloods.  If they have a guaranteed spot in the 12 team playoff, that league will get paid enough that the schools in it will more or less exist as they do now.  You guys are walking proof that making more money than everyone else doesn't translate to wins.  We just need enough to maintain our facilities and pay our coaches.

[johnny utah 68]

21 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

UH is going to the PAC with Tech, OSU, and Kansas on Friday.

Calling my shot.

Against my better judgement I will chime in with what I was told from a PAC source yesterday - you are correct on OSU and Kansas.  They may expand beyond that at some point but those are the two teams that were specifically mentioned that they would be voting on Friday.  

[TKthunder2 4997]

I thought the 12 team proposal included the top 6 conference champions and wasn’t tied to any specific conferences.  It was assumed that the power 5 and 1 other would normally be the automatic bids granting the P5 a defacto autobid.

This means the most a single conference could include in the playoff would be 7 teams although that’s is nearly impossible statistically speaking.  In some crazy years the SEC could have squeezed in 5 but 4 would be most likely.

Or am I just way off?

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Hope yah stick around and keep posting on Surly...

Good stuff !!!  @Al_4_ISU 

Assuming your 5 automatic spots comment correct, do you think SEC will agree to 4 team maximum from a conference in CFP??

• SEC      most likely 3 or 4
• B10       most likely 2 or 3
• ACC      most likely 2 or 3
• PAC       most likely 1 or 2
• B12        most likely 1
• G5         most likely 1
• Independent     occasionally 1

 

*5 automatic spots:  ACC, B10, Big12, Pac12, SEC

Will it matter?  If this is Alliance does actually vote in unison, the SEC will need a lot of help to get their way on the new playoff, which is what I think the point of the Alliance is (and all the other shit they said is BS/window dressing).

I think you'd see a playoff format that guarantees those 5 conference champs are in, and the highest rated G5 is in.  There's 6 spots with auto-qualification, and 6 at larges.  I think anytime Notre Dame has 2 or less losses they're in.  There's going to be at least 2 SEC non-champs in there, regardless, and then probably a 2nd team from the remaining bigger 3.  That's what I'd imagine a typical playoff field would be.  Half of the field meets objective bench marks, the other half set by the media narrative dog and pony show we currently use.

I wouldn't be surprised if in 5 years the format of the sport is completely unrecognizable and something that no one is even discussing today.

[Js1 85602]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

As another posted mentioned, I think the Pac 12 is going to push hard for expansion.  They've only made the 4 team format twice.  The ACC hasn't had anyone other than Clemson in it, and the Big 10 has even been left out.

I think everyone wants expansion.  The battle will be over the format.  

FSU in 2014
They are also credited with Notre Dame's 2020 appearance

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

Unless the Pac is absorbing almost all of the remaining 8 (don't see that happening), I can't see them announcing expansion tomorrow.

It will be some kind of non-committal response about not expanding at the moment, but will constantly monitor the landscape and adjust when possible.  Then, when OU/UT exit is settled, they'll expand.

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

FSU in 2014
They are also credited with Notre Dame's 2020 appearance

I completely forgot that FSU made it in year 1.

[CooterBrown 18032]

The battle will be over the format.  

The SEC has given the format. They just need to lay back and accept it.

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

9 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

The SEC has given the format. They just need to lay back and accept it.

Why would they do that when there's more of them and they don't like it?

Of course, this highlights something else I suspect might happen.  If the SEC wants to have it their own way, the rest of the sport might tell them to pound sand and you'll see basically two college football leagues:  the SEC on ESPN, and everything else on Fox.  Almost like two completely different sports.  The SEC just does it's own thing and everyone else does too.

I don't think this would be the worst thing in the world.

Edited August 26, 2021 by Al_4_ISU

[jTower 238]

2 hours ago, tx ind said:

this is the best outcome

Would be better if that happened before a settlement and everyone just went their own way

[Vertigo 20336]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The Irate 8 are all schools that have always been in a power conference.  They aren't G5 schools even if they aren't blue bloods.  With the now very recent exception of the SEC, every power conference was (and the others still are) a handful of blue bloods and a bunch of schools like the 8.

I don't think the Big 12 exists in 5 years.  I think most schools, if not all, (I could see Baylor in the ACC with Notre Dame keeping the Independent thing) will be absorbed into the Pac/ACC/B1G.  But if that doesn't happen, AND the playoff goes to 12 teams, the Big 12 can expand and be in some nether-region of clearly ahead of the G5 and clearly behind the power leagues with blue bloods.  If they have a guaranteed spot in the 12 team playoff, that league will get paid enough that the schools in it will more or less exist as they do now.  You guys are walking proof that making more money than everyone else doesn't translate to wins.  We just need enough to maintain our facilities and pay our coaches.

Definitely agree with your take. ISU, Tech, Ok State, Kansas, and WVU are viable takes in a number of scenarios. TCU, Baylor, and K State not so much. BYU is certainly an interesting candidate, and Houston at least on paper has the potential to really benefit from that move. Cincy I am on the fence about, but a quality program. Is it enough to keep an automatic bid? Doubtful, but to your point, somewhere in P5/G5 purgatory. 

[TKthunder2 4997]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Will it matter?  If this is Alliance does actually vote in unison, the SEC will need a lot of help to get their way on the new playoff, which is what I think the point of the Alliance is (and all the other shit they said is BS/window dressing).

I think you'd see a playoff format that guarantees those 5 conference champs are in, and the highest rated G5 is in.  There's 6 spots with auto-qualification, and 6 at larges.  I think anytime Notre Dame has 2 or less losses they're in.  There's going to be at least 2 SEC non-champs in there, regardless, and then probably a 2nd team from the remaining bigger 3.  That's what I'd imagine a typical playoff field would be.  Half of the field meets objective bench marks, the other half set by the media narrative dog and pony show we currently use.

I wouldn't be surprised if in 5 years the format of the sport is completely unrecognizable and something that no one is even discussing today.

That IS exactly what the proposal was.  The only difference is that no conference got an automatic bid it just stated they automatically take the top 6 conference champions which 9 years out of 10 include all power 5 conferences.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2021/6/10/12-team-playoff-proposal.aspx

Quote

The working group was appointed by their management committee colleagues and has met over a two-year period to discuss possible new formats. The proposal calls for the bracket each year to include the six highest-ranked conference champions, plus the six highest-ranked other teams as determined by the College Football Playoff selection committee. No conference would qualify automatically and there would be no limit on the number of participants from a conference.

The four highest-ranked conference champions would be seeded one through four and each would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded five through 12 would play each other in the first round on the home field of the higher-ranked team. (The team ranked #5 would host #12; team #6 would meet team #11; team #7 would play team #10; and team #8 would meet #9.) Under the proposal, the quarterfinals and semifinals would be played in bowl games. The championship game would continue to be at a neutral site, as under the current format.

I get the hesitancy, I’m still not happy with the SEC bias that has plagued ESPN for decades. I get wanting to bid the TV deal out to more than just ESPN.  What I don’t get is what problem anyone had with the plan itself.  I don’t see anything wrong with it.

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

14 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Definitely agree with your take. ISU, Tech, Ok State, Kansas, and WVU are viable takes in a number of scenarios. TCU, Baylor, and K State not so much. BYU is certainly an interesting candidate, and Houston at least on paper has the potential to really benefit from that move. Cincy I am on the fence about, but a quality program. Is it enough to keep an automatic bid? Doubtful, but to your point, somewhere in P5/G5 purgatory. 

I really think keeping an auto-bid comes down to what they're able to work out with the other conferences, vs what TV wants.  Maybe they can't do that, maybe the other conferences see that as an easy way to throw them a bone that doesn't really peel any skin off of their backs.

[Al_4_ISU 12500]

1 minute ago, TKthunder2 said:

That IS exactly what the proposal was.  The only difference is that no conference got an automatic bid it just stated they automatically take the top 6 conference champions which 9 years out of 10 include all power 5 conferences.

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2021/6/10/12-team-playoff-proposal.aspx

I get the hesitancy, I’m still not happy with the SEC bias that has plagued ESPN for decades. I get wanting to bid the TV deal out to more than just ESPN.  What I don’t get is what problem anyone had with the plan itself.  I don’t see anything wrong with it.

I think the Pac, for example, wants it god damn for certain that they automatically qualify.  I think you're right in that even the current set up, the Big 12 leftover champ is probably getting in.

I think the bigger format issue for say, the Big 10, was keeping the rest of the field from being an SEC circle jerk.  Plus, (and I'm not saying this to take a shot) the completely underhanded way the SEC and ESPN were using the Big 12 in this discussion while colluding against them in secret gave the other conferences some major pause, and that relationship in and of itself is making them wary.

[mdmost 43056]

Sorry Houston

 

[TKthunder2 4997]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think the Pac, for example, wants it god damn for certain that they automatically qualify.  I think you're right in that even the current set up, the Big 12 leftover champ is probably getting in.

I think the bigger format issue for say, the Big 10, was keeping the rest of the field from being an SEC circle jerk.  Plus, (and I'm not saying this to take a shot) the completely underhanded way the SEC and ESPN were using the Big 12 in this discussion while colluding against them in secret gave the other conferences some major pause, and that relationship in and of itself is making them wary.

I’m pretty sure the top 6 conference champions was a way to give the non power 5 hope for their inclusion over a less deserving power 5 champion.  Think top 10 Boise St (back in the WAC) and TCU (top 10 in the MWC) losing a spot to #24 UConn (back in the old Big East).  Can it happen, sure, it did last year when the PAC champ #25 Oregon was 4-2, and both Cincy and Coastal Carolina were undefeated in the top 20, but I doubt it will happen often.  Shit, a few years back the PAC had a 6-6 UCLA team playing in its CCG, and if they had won you would have wanted them in the CFP?  That’s asinine.

I get the point on the SEC circle jerk, but I haven’t heard anyone say how the plan specifically benefits the SEC over any other conference.  In 2015 the Big Ten under this plan could have had Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern in the CFP.  In 2016 they could have had Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin in the CFP.   More often than not the Big Ten would have had 3 teams included in the CFP with 4 a real possibility in some years, and that’s with only 14 teams.  Go to 16+ and I’m sure the cards could fall just right where they have 5.  I see 2 years (2015 & 2016) where the SEC may have only had a single team included.  Blame the media/ESPN, blame the SEC for having to talk to Texas in secret (because our state would have fucked up the deal had they known earlier) but I don’t get what’s wrong with the 12 team plan.  It just seems like a knee jerk reaction that will only hurt those that are against it.  Slowing down and bidding it out to other TV networks is fine, but stopping it just because they don’t like the SEC is idiotic.

[LTtxfan 49373]

50 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Sorry Houston

 

They left out the part about needing better TV/Streaming Deals...

 

Edited August 26, 2021 by LTtxfan

[BrazilHorn 6635]

Pac-12 said no to the dollar store bargain bin of teams.

Luckily the Irate 8 have Bill Bowlsby on the case. Surely he can get the job done.

[Neonmoon 38130]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Pac-12 said no to the dollar store bargain bin of teams.

Luckily the Irate 8 have Bill Bowlsby on the case. Surely he can get the job done.

Yikes

Yeah, it’s AAC or the equivalent of that with whatever shitshow of teams they can scrape together 

[nineliveslost 2799]

4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think the Pac, for example, wants it god damn for certain that they automatically qualify.  I think you're right in that even the current set up, the Big 12 leftover champ is probably getting in.

I think the bigger format issue for say, the Big 10, was keeping the rest of the field from being an SEC circle jerk.  Plus, (and I'm not saying this to take a shot) the completely underhanded way the SEC and ESPN were using the Big 12 in this discussion while colluding against them in secret gave the other conferences some major pause, and that relationship in and of itself is making them wary.

out of all the teams left in the Big 12 , I want Iowa State to go to one of the remaining conferences (Big 10)and I wouldn't mind Texas scheduling a home and home with them for multiple years. You fucks are good people and always been cool to chill with . 

[Crockett 494]

28 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

out of all the teams left in the Big 12 , I want Iowa State to go to one of the remaining conferences (Big 10)and I wouldn't mind Texas scheduling a home and home with them for multiple years. You fucks are good people and always been cool to chill with . 

What's in it for the Big Ten to take ISU?

[nineliveslost 2799]

1 minute ago, Crockett said:

What's in it for the Big Ten to take ISU?

my happiness 

[Huckleberry 33114]

18 minutes ago, Crockett said:

What's in it for the Big Ten to take ISU?

Big AAU school, built in rivalry, good people, good conference partner, good programs, great wrestling without the kiddie diddling.

[lemonandaturd 4285]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Big AAU school, built in rivalry, good people, good conference partner, good programs, great wrestling without the kiddie diddling.

But, but, but, gentlemen's agreement and such.  

[Deej 76946]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Pac-12 said no to the dollar store bargain bin of teams.

Luckily the Irate 8 have Bill Bowlsby on the case. Surely he can get the job done.

With Bowlsby on the case, they Big 12 will be dropping to 4A.

[Chad 1728]

The Big 12 is courting UCF who has been the best G5 program in recent history. However, they seem hesitant and for good reason they don't want to become another Boise or TCU jumping onto a sinking ship like the Big East before it imploded. If I'm the Big 12 I'm trying to add UCF, Cincy, Houston and a fourth to get the conference back to 12 teams and retain some form of respectability. The conference would remain strong in Basketball with the additions of Houston and Cincy and they both have decent football programs. The best course of action would be to oust that goof Bowlsby and turn the reigns over to Luck.

[Nivek 16992]

The Irate 8 are all schools that have always been in a power conference.  They aren't G5 schools even if they aren't blue bloods.  With the now very recent exception of the SEC, every power conference was (and the others still are) a handful of blue bloods and a bunch of schools like the 8.
I don't think the Big 12 exists in 5 years.  I think most schools, if not all, (I could see Baylor in the ACC with Notre Dame keeping the Independent thing) will be absorbed into the Pac/ACC/B1G.  But if that doesn't happen, AND the playoff goes to 12 teams, the Big 12 can expand and be in some nether-region of clearly ahead of the G5 and clearly behind the power leagues with blue bloods.  If they have a guaranteed spot in the 12 team playoff, that league will get paid enough that the schools in it will more or less exist as they do now.  You guys are walking proof that making more money than everyone else doesn't translate to wins.  We just need enough to maintain our facilities and pay our coaches.

What is Matt’s ISU commitment like if the Irate8 continue down this path and are effectively demoted?

[Nivek 16992]

Big AAU school, built in rivalry, good people, good conference partner, good programs, great wrestling without the kiddie diddling.

I think that last part is the deal breaker.

[Zeus 6168]

10 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

If the playoff goes to 12, and they have automatic bids for the SEC, ACC, Pac 12, Big 10, and Big 12 champions, that's a slot that isn't going to an SEC non-champ.

The current 12 team proposal doesn't have automatic bids.  

The whole point of this Alliance seems to be to prevent the passing of this current 12 team proposal, and there are enough schools in that Alliance to do exactly that.

My hypothetical is completely contingent on an expanded playoff with objective qualifying criteria.

The big12 isn't power 5 (now 4) anymore without Texas and blowU.

The best case scenario is the leftovers get picked up by the other conferences. 

The alliance is fake and gay btw

[billfromlaketravis 11536]

20 minutes ago, Nivek said:

What is Matt’s ISU commitment like if the Irate8 continue down this path and are effectively demoted?

Begging the Lions to take him back after Dan Campbell crashes and burns in 2-3 years. 

[lemonandaturd 4285]

26 minutes ago, Nivek said:

What is Matt’s ISU commitment like if the Irate8 continue down this path and are effectively demoted?

He might interview for the Jacksonville job after Urban has a Papa John pizza overload,  sideline brain freeze.  

[Zeus 6168]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Big AAU school, built in rivalry, good people, good conference partner, good programs, great wrestling without the kiddie diddling.

Kiddie diddling is the backbone of rasslin

[Zeus 6168]

11 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

He might interview for the Jacksonville job after Urban has a Papa John pizza overload,  sideline brain freeze.  

The medical terminology is brain spiders.

[WhatTheBuck 28806]

2 hours ago, Crockett said:

What's in it for the Big Ten to take ISU?

Nothing. Not a goddamned thing. No money, no media, no viewership, no brand. 

[Deej 76946]

8 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Nothing. Not a goddamned thing. No money, no media, no viewership, no brand. 

So, Nebraska?

[MIkeHoncho 1931]

2 hours ago, Crockett said:

What's in it for the Big Ten to take ISU?

Get the next HC of Michigan in conference early? 

[Vertigo 20336]

1 hour ago, Chad said:

The Big 12 is courting UCF who has been the best G5 program in recent history. However, they seem hesitant and for good reason they don't want to become another Boise or TCU jumping onto a sinking ship like the Big East before it imploded. If I'm the Big 12 I'm trying to add UCF, Cincy, Houston and a fourth to get the conference back to 12 teams and retain some form of respectability. The conference would remain strong in Basketball with the additions of Houston and Cincy and they both have decent football programs. The best course of action would be to oust that goof Bowlsby and turn the reigns over to Luck.

Here is a complete black swan. What if Bowlsby actually did something tactical for once and went out to get BYU, Houston, Air Force, and either Nevada or San Diego State to push into the western market. Kick the Pac12 right in the dick, hell, take all of them and add San Jose State or Colorado State to get to 14. In theory that could be compelling. 

[WhatTheBuck 28806]

14 minutes ago, Deej said:

So, Nebraska?

Nebraska is a national brand. They’re not carrying their weight but they bring a hell of a lot more eyes than ISU would. And BTN already has the State of Iowa so the Cyclones would bring absolutely nothing in that regard. They’d just be a drain on the media deals from the rest of the conference. They would literally suck. How many people tune in to watch Matt Campbell lose to Kirk Ferentz every year?

[LTtxfan 49373]

Siap...     Says go get BYU, Boise State, UCF and Cincinnati

It's time for the Big 12 to be the Big 12

Now that we know it won't be raided by the Pac-12, the Big 12's path to survival is through aggressive expansion.

ZACH BARNETT   5 HOURS AGO

Quote

And so it's done. To the surprise of no one, the Pac-12 announced Thursday it will not pursue expansion. There are no rumblings of the Big Ten and ACC growing beyond 14 and 15, respectively, either. The big move those three had in response to the SEC's annexation of the Red River Rivalry was creating The Alliance, thereby designating the Big 12 was the clear No. 5 in the Power 5.

In other words, today should be the first day in the rest of the Big 12's life. We're five days from the 25th anniversary of the inaugural Big 12 game -- Kansas State 21, Texas Tech 14 -- and Aug. 26, 2021 should be about plotting the conference's next quarter century. 

It should be about putting the Big, and the 12, back in Big 12.

If I'm in charge of the conference, I go get BYU, Boise State, UCF and Cincinnati and I go get them today.

None of the four require much explanation, but here's a short one.

BYU: BYU is easily the most 'Power 5' school not in the Power 5. It has a modern-day national championship and plays in a 64,000 seat stadium it regularly fills. Its $1.8 billion endowment would be the largest in the Big 12 and larger than Oklahoma's, Alabama's and Nebraska's, to name three blue-bloods. 

Boise State: A natural rival to BYU, and their history of staging epic games with TCU in the semi-recent history doesn't hurt, either. I'm building this conference with staging compelling football games as my first, second and third priorities, and people know Boise State football.

UCF: If it were possible to invest in college football programs, UCF would be the stock you'd purchase. A massive university with a young, energetic alumni base, UCF has appeared in New Year's Six bowls under three different head coaches since 2013, which is two more than Texas. UCF joining the Big 12 may not inspire Orlando-area kids to spend their college years in Lawrence or Manhattan, but there's more than enough evidence UCF would carry their own weight athletically and financially.

Cincinnati: If it's possible to be old money and new money at the same time, that's Cincinnati. This program is where TCU was a decade ago, with purple exchanged for red. The Bearcats have been in a zillion conferences and won all of them, and Luke Fickell has built a sustainable program. Again, no promises Ohio kids would want to play Big 12 football, but the Bearcats would compete immediately. 

In short, I'm getting the best football team (Cincinnati), the best football job (UCF), the best football brand (Boise State) and the best overall university (BYU) available. 

No, the money may not make sense on a spreadsheet as we sit here today on the eve of the 2021 football season. The best estimates indicate the Big 12's TV payout may drop from $24 million to $12 million per school once Texas and OU leave, which is A) half of what they currently earn, and B) still nearly double the $7 million the AAC schools earn. 

It's certainly plausible an estimated $12 million per school payout for eight teams drops to, say, $10 million per school at 12 teams. But how can the conference expect to thrive from a crouched position?

Look, this alignment isn't perfect. Each of these four schools have their drawbacks -- if they didn't, they'd be in the Big 12 right now. A conference that stretches from Orlando to Boise, from Morgantown to Provo is the furthest thing from ideal. A West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Big 12 football game sounds weird to me, too.

But given the imperfect options, this is how I divide the conference. 

Big 12 East
West Virginia
Cincinnati
UCF
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State

Big 12 West
Oklahoma State
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
BYU
Boise State

As for the championship game, the TV viewer in me wants to see a packed, snowy Milan Puskar Stadium on the first Saturday of December instead of a half-full AT&T Stadium. But the spiteful conference executive wants to sign a 25-year lease because screw the idea of letting the SEC even think about moving its title game from Atlanta to Dallas. 

It's time for the Big 12 to go on the offensive, to do something. Stage interesting football games and the rest will take care of itself in time. It's time for the Big 12 to be a Big conference with 12 teams. It's time for the Big 12 to be the Big 12 again. 

https://footballscoop.com/news/big-12-expansion-boise-state-ucf-byu-cincinnati  

[Zeus 6168]

3 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Here is a complete black swan. What if Bowlsby actually did something tactical for once and went out to get BYU, Houston, Air Force, and either Nevada or San Diego State to push into the western market. Kick the Pac12 right in the dick, hell, take all of them and add San Jose State or Colorado State to get to 14. In theory that could be compelling. 

All 6 of those additional teams would be about half of Texas eyeballs but yeah, would be fun to watch.

[mdmost 43056]

Man, no one gives a shit about Nevada, San Jose State, Colorado State, or San Diego State. Air Force only rates because they're military. Come on. No one cares about Houston except people in this state and they barely register here. BYU is about the only good name the Big 12 could add in that above scenario. 

Grab Cincinnai, UCF, Boise, BYU and call it a day. That's 3 of 4 that have at least been in the conversation for the playoff and one that actually has an MNC. 

[TKthunder2 4997]

12 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Here is a complete black swan. What if Bowlsby actually did something tactical for once and went out to get BYU, Houston, Air Force, and either Nevada or San Diego State to push into the western market. Kick the Pac12 right in the dick, hell, take all of them and add San Jose State or Colorado State to get to 14. In theory that could be compelling. 

The PAC isn’t expanding with any MWC schools, and those schools will always be there for the taking if future expansion is needed.  Also, if they go West, no way they leave out Boise St.  Air Force also has to play Army and Navy each year so they’d only have a single OOC game which make them less desirable (unless you add Navy and Army too).  Colorado State is getting a brand new on campus stadium and has an annual rivalry game with Colorado which can help raise the conference’s profile.  San Diego State is also getting a brand new stadium too.

With West Virginia still in the conference the best move is to expand and take the legs out of the AAC to get to 12.  UCF, Cincy, Memphis and I guess Houston (although you could do UConn if they are too scared of in state competition).  If they decide they need more than 12 or they lose a school or two they can always go West with BYU, Boise, San Diego State, and Colorado State to make a good western pod.

The Big 12’s best bet is to be the best of the rest conference, and go coast to coast and take whoever can give them enough cred to stay in the conversation.

[Dnaguy 12104]

My guess of BIG12 addition: 
1.) UCF

2.) Cincy

3.) BYU

4.) UH

 

New divisions:

East: 

Iowa st

Kansas

Kansas St

WVU

Cincy

UCF

 

West:

TCU

Baylor

Tech

UH

BYU

OSU

 

[statsman 5486]

Someone suggested that the Big 12 remnant expand with an eye on being the best football conference possible. That’s a solid strategy. 
  
UH would be a good add for that. Pros- good recruiting base, they have shown they can build competitive teams; they just need to be part of a major conference for selling to recruits. Cons- they don’t expand the conference profile and viewership ($$) much. 
  
In other words, they’re much like TCU, OSU and Baylor (football-wise) except they are smack dab in a recruiting hotbed. 
  
This is the test. Will TCU, Baylor and TT agree to invite them, for the overall good of the conference? Or will they reject them, because they don’t want to help the Cougars build their program?

I think we know the answer.