Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

TKthunder2 · July 23, 2023

With the Big 12 keeping a strong presence in Texas they’ll continue to have interest from FOX and if they can lock up the 4C schools and have a weekly late kick plus play games on Thursday/Friday games they’ll get interest from ESPN. Those are the major selling points. Yes, Oklahoma State and TCU help but add the 4 Texas schools, Oklahoma State, and BYU or Kansas to the PAC12 and you’d have similar interests from the networks.

LTtxfan · July 23, 2023

7 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Scipio Tex is convinced B12 will get less money on next deal, and ESPN paid extra to get Texas & OU out early. Streaming business is really in trouble -- Disney especially. Their checkbook is closed until ESPN is spun off or sold. The Mouse has to buy Comcast out of Hulu next year.‘it’ll cost billions.

The Mouse is in trouble -- oh no

Curious how this plays out for SEC and ACC since ESPN is tied to their TV deals ?? 🙄

billfromlaketravis · July 23, 2023

8 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

The Mouse is in trouble -- oh no

Curious how this plays out for SEC and ACC since ESPN is tied to their TV deals ?? 🙄

ESPN is still profitable, but Disney films and streaming aren’t doing well.

Iger I guess, is reluctant spin off ESPN because it’s a profitable business, but he can’t spend anymore money on it. The timing couldn’t be worse. Hulu as mentioned above, and NBA’s deal is coming up after the 2024-2025 season. The NBA contract is going to sting. They’re looking to triple their current deal and get into the $9 billion range. I believe Iger has been looking for a partner to help pay for it. It could anything from PE to Apple. Also remember that Disney only owns 80% of ESPN. The Hearst Family owns the other 20%.

But it’s not a great business. ESPN could be paying 3X what they’re paying now for the same NBA product. The only ace up their sleeve is that NBA wants to remain on network television and Disney of course owns ABC.

Long story short. I’m glad we’re going to the SEC, but the Big Ten is probably going to get a better deal from a much more stable company.

LTtxfan · July 23, 2023

29 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Long story short. I’m glad we’re going to the SEC, but the Big Ten is probably going to get a better deal from a much more stable company.

Yeah, how long is the SEC contract with ESPN??

With the money concerns at Disney, it just seems like the SEC might go shopping for a better deal??

Not sure network TV will continue to be a factor in the future... pay for watching CFB sports seems inevitable. 🙄

Edited July 23, 2023 by LTtxfan
typo

TKthunder2 · July 23, 2023

I think you guys are off on this. ESPN is best setup for future streaming and has more potential as a partner.

NBC/CBS are very limited and FOX just sold off most of its assets to Disney.

Which streaming service will have the easiest time with sports streaming?

Disney+HuluESPN or Peacock or Paramount or FOXNow?

There is a budget crunch right now FOX had to partner with CBS/NBC to get the numbers to work. That gives them great slotting in the current market, but doesn’t set them up for long term success.

This is one of the main reasons analysts think eventually you’ll see CBS/NBC/FOX partner/merge with Apple/Amazon/Netflix is because they are NOT setup well for future growth like ESPN is.

billfromlaketravis · July 23, 2023

ESPN hates Comcast. Not sure on the history there, but sure it revolves around contentious carriage deals.

One of the ideas being floated around is that Comcast takes a percentage of ESPN instead of cash in their Hulu exit. Allegedly Disney is pleased with Hulu’s performance, and they like their live tv business. So maybe it’d be worth it for the mouse to give Comcast 20-29% of ESPN, and keep a controlling share.

I think it’s debatable if Fox or ESPN is the better partner. For the fans I’d say Fox. Games in 4k, better production quality and superior on air talent. They also exited the film business, so another Star Wars clunker doesn’t influence spending on their sports networks.

Meanwhile, ESPN continues to stream in 720, and they’ve fired a healthy percentage of their established on air talent. The ESPN of old would have slammed their checkbook on the table to get another SEC conference game. But because of all the other problems in the company, Iger has alligator arms.

Long story short, Fox is willing to spend money if they can find the right partners, and ESPN has no plan other than to cut costs.

TKthunder2 · July 24, 2023

FOX is a $25b company with 10k employees with the main TV network and local stations as its main bread and butter. FOX Sports and to a lesser extent FOX News are (like their lesser known branch FOX Entertainment) all about driving viewership to FOX and the local affiliates.

FOX News, love them or hate them is a major player in cable news, FS1 is nowhere near that same status in sports. They are closer to CBS Sports Network or NBC Sports than it is to ESPN. They mainly compete with ESPN2.

As far as Disney is concerned they are a $200b company with over 200k employees. Igor split the business in 3 parts. Disney Entertainment, Disney Parks/Experiences/Cruises/Products, and ESPN.

The fact that they carved out ESPN and have talked it up as a primary revenue generating business means either they are about to leverage that business like crazy (streaming, betting, events, radio, news, etc) or that they are positioning it for a huge payday which still would be a positive for all involved.

If this is purely FOX vs Disney this is not even a competition. Disney eats FOX’s lunch. But add in CBS/NBC to go along with FOX and guarantee 3 OTA TV windows and that deal is impressive (which is what the B1G had to do, only getting 2 of the 3 wouldn’t have been nearly as impactful).

Still if your a fan of a conference in the next decade in a streamlined streaming world (minus some collaborative technology that allows you to easily flip between games) having all your conference content on a single streaming service is far superior.

Imagine Big Ten fans having to subscribe to whatever app FOX does, Peacock, and Paramount+ to see all their team’s home games while the SEC(and ACC) can just stay on a single app with great PIP/multi view options.

The Big Ten may have a slightly better money position and exposure currently, but long term I think the SEC hitched its wagon to the right horse.

oSuJeff97 · July 24, 2023

On 7/21/2023 at 1:12 PM, Vertigo said:

The B12 mouthpieces are convinced that their next TV deal is going to be around $45-50 million per school. But to get that, they are going to have to have a level of sustained success over the next few years and I am just not convinced that is going to happen. Texas and OU going to the SEC is going to put a squeeze on the level of talent that B12 schools get. Not only will TX/OU feast on the top guys in state, but A&M will also be right there getting their share of dudes, and LSU, Arkansas, Bama, Georgia, and a few others will also be making pushes into the state now that they will be seen on primetime TV every week.

That essentially means that the level of talent left over for the likes of TCU, Tech, Ok State, etc is going to continue to fall. Whereas TCU could get an occasional highly ranked 4 star or even a 5 star under the right circumstances, they will be fishing in the low four star and three star pool from now on. It would not surprise me to see BYU rise to power since they have a niche pipeline of high quality talent and access to the west coast regions with far less competition there.

I see this line of thinking brought up all the time and I've yet to have someone explain to me how it would be any different than the current status quo.

Who in the Big 12, outside of OU and Texas, have *ever* pulled anything approaching an elite recruiting class? Every once in a while OSU, Baylor or TCU might pop a top 20 class, but generally all three rely on classes that are far and away 3-star classes with maybe one or two 4-star guys sprinkled in here and there. All three rely on coaching/development and have all succeeded on specifically taking the players in Texas that OU/Texas/A&M *don't* want.

How exactly does that change by OU and Texas moving to the SEC?

Nivek · July 24, 2023

at least we won't have to hear every announcer talk about how some kid who really wanted to go to Texas but wasn't recruited, is going to kick our ass at some irate 8 school anymore.

oSuJeff97 · July 24, 2023

38 minutes ago, Nivek said:

at least we won't have to hear every announcer talk about how some kid who really wanted to go to Texas but wasn't recruited, is going to kick our ass at some irate 8 school anymore.

Oh sure you will... I'm sure there's some 3-star Texas kid at Arkansas or Mississippi State that is already planning his revenge.

Nivek · July 24, 2023

54 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Oh sure you will... I'm sure there's some 3-star Texas kid at Arkansas or Mississippi State that is already planning his revenge.

ahhh fuck, you are probably correct. It was just wishful thinking I suppose. I do wonder if y'all get beat to death with the same stories over and over again like we do or if that is just a Texas thing (Sydmil Harris speaking 12,000 languages, Colt and Shipley's dad were roommates had to be mentioned 3x per broadcast for 4 years, etc.)

Uncle Nate · July 24, 2023

1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Oh sure you will... I'm sure there's some 3-star Texas kid at Arkansas or Mississippi State that is already planning his revenge.

For that matter, there will be some of those kids on the aggy roster as well.

cochamps · July 24, 2023

On 7/22/2023 at 9:49 PM, TKthunder2 said:

With the Big 12 keeping a strong presence in Texas they’ll continue to have interest from FOX and if they can lock up the 4C schools and have a weekly late kick plus play games on Thursday/Friday games they’ll get interest from ESPN. Those are the major selling points.

I expect some blow back on those Friday night games. Personally, I hate to see it damage the high schools - and it will.

billfromlaketravis · July 25, 2023

1 hour ago, cochamps said:

I expect some blow back on those Friday night games. Personally, I hate to see it damage the high schools - and it will.

The THSCA has shown a willingness to only punish UT. The Big 12 teams will be just fine.

LTtxfan · July 25, 2023

1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The THSCA has shown a willingness to only punish UT. The Big 12 teams will be just fine.

msucolt45 · July 25, 2023

ahhh fuck, you are probably correct. It was just wishful thinking I suppose. I do wonder if y'all get beat to death with the same stories over and over again like we do or if that is just a Texas thing (Sydmil Harris speaking 12,000 languages, Colt and Shipley's dad were roommates had to be mentioned 3x per broadcast for 4 years, etc.)

It’s been that way since “forever!” Just look at any Arky or OU Sucks roster from the late 50’s and beyond. If half of the roster isn’t from Texas, I’d be shocked!

Hook’em!!!

0xdeadbeef · July 27, 2023

Welp, the Big-12 may not quite be dead on the side of the road after all.

Colorado to the Big-12 broke earlier today and may get approved by the Big-12 as soon as this week. They would start play next year.

With lack of a TV deal, it feels like this may not be the only defection.

The Earl of Texas · July 27, 2023

A good get, and might lead them to go get Arizona, AZ State, or Utah to balance.

Edited July 27, 2023 by The Earl of Texas

TrashMaster G · July 27, 2023

51 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Welp, the Big-12 may not quite be dead on the side of the road after all.

Colorado to the Big-12 broke earlier today and may get approved by the Big-12 as soon as this week. They would start play next year.

With lack of a TV deal, it feels like this may not be the only defection.

Who thought the Big XII was dead???

closetohumping · July 27, 2023

7 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Welp, the Big-12 may not quite be dead on the side of the road after all.

Colorado to the Big-12 broke earlier today and may get approved by the Big-12 as soon as this week. They would start play next year.

With lack of a TV deal, it feels like this may not be the only defection.

Usc inadvertently saved the big 12

DFW Horn · July 27, 2023

1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

Usc inadvertently saved the big 12

...and losing the LA market effectively killed the PAC. Stick a fork in them, they're done.

Al_4_ISU · July 27, 2023

8 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

Who thought the Big XII was dead???

Pretty much everyone in '21. Myself included.

Ghost of LL · July 27, 2023

The Colorado thing is low-key hilarious. They spent decades pining for the Pac-10. I mean, even before it was the Big XII, Colorado made noises about leaving the Big8 to join the Pac-10.

And then, having gotten their great wish, the Pac-whatever barely lasts a decade with Colorado in it, and Colorado has to come scurrying back to the Big XII. But it's not really the Big XII they left--now there's no Texas; no Oklahoma; not to mention no Nebraska and no aggy.

But at least they'll get BYU and UCF on their conference schedule. So that's nice.

'stache · July 27, 2023

I read that the Big XII contract provides for an equal share of $31M (or whatever it is) for new P5 adds. If true, is there a limit, or any programs excluded? Surely there has to be, like only up to 4 new adds, and it can't be WSU or ORST. If it was unlimited, then conceivably all 10 PAC teams could join and ESPN and Fox would pay them each $31M. In that scenario, why wouldn't those networks have just given the PAC-X the same deal as the Big XII?

Edited July 27, 2023 by 'stache

Js1 · July 27, 2023

24 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The Colorado thing is low-key hilarious. They spent decades pining for the Pac-10. I mean, even before it was the Big XII, Colorado made noises about leaving the Big8 to join the Pac-10.

And then, having gotten their great wish, the Pac-whatever barely lasts a decade with Colorado in it, and Colorado has to come scurrying back to the Big XII. But it's not really the Big XII they left--now there's no Texas; no Oklahoma; not to mention no Nebraska and no aggy.

But at least they'll get BYU and UCF on their conference schedule. So that's nice.

CU never got over 2005 and now that we left, they want back in 😂

BurntOrange&White · July 27, 2023

15 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I read that the Big XII contract provides for an equal share of $31M (or whatever it is) for new P5 adds. If true, is there a limit, or any programs excluded? Surely there has to be, like only up to 4 new adds, and it can't be WSU or ORST. If it was unlimited, then conceivably all 10 PAC teams could join and ESPN and Fox would pay them each $31M. In that scenario, why wouldn't those networks have just given the PAC-X the same deal as the Big XII?

These are the only programs worth taking: Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, and Utah.

Deej · July 27, 2023

52 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The Colorado thing is low-key hilarious. They spent decades pining for the Pac-10. I mean, even before it was the Big XII, Colorado made noises about leaving the Big8 to join the Pac-10.

And then, having gotten their great wish, the Pac-whatever barely lasts a decade with Colorado in it, and Colorado has to come scurrying back to the Big XII. But it's not really the Big XII they left--now there's no Texas; no Oklahoma; not to mention no Nebraska and no aggy.

But at least they'll get BYU and UCF on their conference schedule. So that's nice.

If Deion is still there, Colorado will be the new Big 12's biggest draw.

DickSolomon · July 27, 2023

2 minutes ago, Deej said:

If Deion is still there, Colorado will be the new Big 12's biggest draw.

And if UofH moves to Austin and becomes The University of Texas, then the Big 12's draw will be HUGE!!

Edited July 27, 2023 by DickSolomon

oSuJeff97 · July 27, 2023

6 minutes ago, Deej said:

If Deion is still there, Colorado will be the new Big 12's biggest draw.

Yeah that's pretty big wild card.

They are going to be a huge draw this year out the curiosity factor, but if he fires out a 2-10 type season that curiosity will fade.

SimonBolivar · July 27, 2023

53 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I read that the Big XII contract provides for an equal share of $31M (or whatever it is) for new P5 adds. If true, is there a limit, or any programs excluded? Surely there has to be, like only up to 4 new adds, and it can't be WSU or ORST. If it was unlimited, then conceivably all 10 PAC teams could join and ESPN and Fox would pay them each $31M. In that scenario, why wouldn't those networks have just given the PAC-X the same deal as the Big XII?

Yeah but you don't want to add any dead weight for the next round. We'll already be far far behind the P2 and adding dilutive programs to that just isn't going to be worth it. Also that might piss off ESPN/Fox and we don't need to do that with some "technically P5" adds.

DickSolomon · July 27, 2023

22 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah that's pretty big wild card.

They are going to be a huge draw this year out the curiosity factor, but if he fires out a 2-10 type season that curiosity will fade.

and if he goes 10-2, he'll bolt for an actual Power conference instead of this CUSA/BIg8 mashup.

I like how in 2024 the Big 12 will have 13 teams and 28 years of history, yet only 3 big 12 champion game winners among their entire group of members, with Kstate being the winningest conference game champion at 2 wins. literally a conference of losers. More than 2/3 of the conference's title game winners reside in other conferences now, lol.

Edited July 27, 2023 by DickSolomon

closetojumping · July 27, 2023

3 minutes ago, DickSolomon said:

and if he goes 10-2, he'll bolt for an actual Power conference instead of this CUSA/BIg8 mashup.

Am I the only guy pondering putting this dude on ignore just due to that fucking avatar?

DickSolomon · July 27, 2023

Just now, closetojumping said:

Am I the only guy pondering putting this dude on ignore just due to that fucking avatar?

Fuck you homophobe

Lou_Sassle · July 27, 2023

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Am I the only guy pondering putting this dude on ignore just due to that fucking avatar?

No

closetojumping · July 27, 2023

1 minute ago, DickSolomon said:

Fuck you homophobe

A predictable, if ignorant response.

You do you, but you're posting something in public and not leaving a choice to the other posters. It's not my thing, so I'll put you on ignore and move on. I don't seek out all kinds of images, and I don't have to be subjected to them here either.

MonkeyDoughnut · July 27, 2023

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Am I the only guy pondering putting this dude on ignore just due to that fucking avatar?

Can't unsee... and good idea

DickSolomon · July 27, 2023

7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

A predictable, if ignorant response.

You do you, but you're posting something in public and not leaving a choice to the other posters. It's not my thing, so I'll put you on ignore and move on. I don't seek out all kinds of images, and I don't have to be subjected to them here either.

Bigot on being called a homophobe: "Predictable."

Crockett · July 27, 2023

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Am I the only guy pondering putting this dude on ignore just due to that fucking avatar?

No you are not alone

tokamak · July 27, 2023

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

These are the only programs worth taking: Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, and Utah.

Why Stanford?

Uncle Nate · July 27, 2023

15 minutes ago, Crockett said:

No you are not alone

Can someone tell me how to put him on ignore?

EDIT: Nevermind...figured it out.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Uncle Nate

nineliveslost · July 27, 2023

15 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Can someone tell me how to put him on ignore?

EDIT: Nevermind...figured it out.

Had to figure it out also. First time I have used that function.

TrashMaster G · July 27, 2023

43 minutes ago, DickSolomon said:

Fuck you homophobe

Ouch. The dumb, it hurts.

'stache · July 27, 2023

22 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Why Stanford?

Regular Director's Cup winners, and football gets a lot of attention when they have good players like Luck or McCaffrey. They actually try to be good at football, unlike their neighbors at Cal.

Lou_Sassle · July 27, 2023

3 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Ouch. The dumb, it hurts.

Pretty sure that's Kenny Powder's new handle...

closetojumping · July 27, 2023

5 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Pretty sure that's Kenny Powder's new handle...

It's clearly someone simply trying to stir up shit. And I think you've probably assessed the identity correctly.

chase25 · July 27, 2023

If you are the new Big 12 you probably full court press Washington, Oregon, and Utah. Washington and Oregon are likely holding out for a B1G offer that personally I don't see coming.

Pretty remarkable how awful the Pac 12 leadership was and is, all the way down to the school administrations.

BurntOrange&White · July 27, 2023

5 minutes ago, chase25 said:

If you are the new Big 12 you probably full court press Washington, Oregon, and Utah. Washington and Oregon are likely holding out for a B1G offer that personally I don't see coming.

Pretty remarkable how awful the Pac 12 leadership was and is, all the way down to the school administrations.

You don’t waste time on Utah.

closetojumping · July 27, 2023

I'm not a big fan of Oregon joining the Big 12 beyond the personal entertainment component of watching the Pac 10 blow up if that happened. They'd get multiple games in Texas every year and their future with tv sets would be reasonably assured. I'm cheering for Arizona, ASU and Utah and for Oregon to get fucked.

chase25 · July 27, 2023

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

You don’t waste time on Utah.

You bring the Utah/BYU rivalry in conference. Plus the Big 12 almost certainly tries to get to 16 teams with the B1G and SEC soon to be sitting at 16. I could definitely see them punting Utah though and just trying to cast as wide a net as possible.

4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I'm not a big fan of Oregon joining the Big 12 beyond the personal entertainment component of watching the Pac 10 blow up if that happened. They'd get multiple games in Texas every year and their future with tv sets would be reasonably assured. I'm cheering for Arizona, ASU and Utah and for Oregon to get fucked.

I personally think Oregon is the biggest brand left, Big 12 would be stupid not to make them priority #1. I've never been a huge fan of Arizona and Arizona State, both athletic programs have fallen off hard recently, but everyone has their own taste. Either way this is going to be hilarious to watch unfold because several relatively "big" programs will get left holding the left over crumbs of a decimated lifeless PAC/MWC 2.0

Deej · July 27, 2023

3 minutes ago, chase25 said:

I personally think Oregon is the biggest brand left, Big 12 would be stupid not to make them priority #1

It'd be stupid not to take them, but it's just one more team heavily recruiting the state and that's not what we really need.

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