Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[Josef Pwag 1738]

4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think you're in regardless with your brand power and the SEC sticker to boot.

Our schedule is a joke. Who knew Michigan, OU and UF would all be a mess in the same season. 

['stache 21801]

I just saw that Notre Dame closes with Army and USC. I don't think they win out, so a 5th SEC spot will likely be open.

[closetojumping 62596]

4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don't listen to a ton of national shows other than Split Zone Duo and Solid Verbal, but I haven't heard much Texas questioning there.  And I don't think Texas should be in question at this point either, by the way.  A 1 loss SEC team has done enough in any year, IMO.

I'm just using it as a data point to highlight the bias being shown Indiana.  If Indiana were Michigan there would be no "do they deserve to be in?" discussions.

Indiana is easily the worst team in the P4 from a historic perspective. If there is any program undeserving of a benefit of the doubt in this CFP shitshow, it is Indiana. They also haven't played any of the top 7 Big 10 teams, and backed out of an OOC game against Louisville. They're being questioned justifiably, and that's even considering the amazing job Cignetti has done and the way in which IU has pummeled most opponents. 

All they have to do is beat Ohio State and the questioning goes away. I'm cheering for it.

[JWinTX 53]

22 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

That would be an entertaining football product for sure.  Basketball would take a hit.

Add in Duke and Kansas and you've got it taken care...

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Indiana is easily the worst team in the P4 from a historic perspective. If there is any program undeserving of a benefit of the doubt in this CFP shitshow, it is Indiana. They also haven't played any of the top 7 Big 10 teams, and backed out of an OOC game against Louisville. They're being questioned justifiably, and that's even considering the amazing job Cignetti has done and the way in which IU has pummeled most opponents. 

All they have to do is beat Ohio State and the questioning goes away. I'm cheering for it.

Oh, they have a soft schedule.  BYU has a better strength of schedule than Indiana.  Dodging the heavyweights and feasting on the Big 12/ACC type of teams that comprise the bulk of that league is a time-honored Big 10 tradition.

I still don't think they'd be questioned as much as a bigger brand.  Look at Penn State.  Who's their best win?  USC?  Illinois?  WVU?  It's one off those, I guess.  Not that Indiana's is any better, but I just don't see anyone doubting Penn State.

I think one thing that we haven't really grasped as a CFB community yet is that the transfer portal and NIL have actually lead to a proliferation of talent and increased parity everywhere.  Guys want playing time.  We might not see the juggernauts we're used to seeing going forward, and doormats can reverse course faster.

Edited Wednesday at 09:03 PM by Al_4_ISU

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

1 minute ago, JWinTX said:

Add in Duke and Kansas and you've got it taken care...

Right.  When you separate out the ACC schools that are going to end up in the Big 10 or SEC (which may only be a couple of them at this point) I think it would behoove the Big 12 and ACC to merge into one entity.  It won't make SEC/Big 10 money, but it the top few teams in that grouping would demand playoff inclusion.

[TKthunder2 4987]

10 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Why are talking heads saying Indiana has to keep it close in Columbus to get in, while no one questions Texas's place and Indiana and Texas each have the exact same best win, and Indiana's loss would at least be on the road in a top 5 toughest place to play?  Starting in the first year of the 4 team playoff they've consistently shifted the goal posts in order to put together the best TV product (eyeballs that is - not necessarily entertainment value).  It's not even a conspiratorial idea at this point.  

I don’t disagree that they pick who they want and justify it later.

Still you comparing Texas to Indiana is just a bad talking point that the national media really should stop using.

Excluding Michigan

Texas beat Vanderbilt and Arkansas who beat Alabama and Tennessee respectively.

Indiana beat Nebraska and UCLA who beat Colorado and Iowa respectively.

Even though both have easy schedules within their own conference, an easy Big Ten schedule is still far weaker than an East SEC schedule.

['stache 21801]

10 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

My favorite was that Arkansas was both a key win and a terrible loss depending on your orange.    Take that Vols.

They really need to go back to computers, there is a lot of really blatant bias showing up, like Notre Dame's loss to NIU never happening any longer.

"Quality of loss" has only been utilized one time in the history of CFB, to put Bama in the BCS title game over OKST in 2011. All the computers had OSU ahead based on quality of wins (Big XII was stacked with QB's that year and the round robin was brutal) but Bama lost to LSU in the 9-6 "Game of the Century" while OSU dropped an upset to ISU on a friday night in Ames the same day the very popular women's basketball coach died in a plane crash. The country was just dying for an SEC rematch. Not that the plane crash should matter too much in deteriming playoff standings but at least it's something wheras I have seen nothing whatsoever that excuses ND's loss to a mid MAC school. Yes, I'm still bitter as fuck, and will be til the day I die. 

Edited yesterday at 01:06 AM by 'stache

[Crockett 490]

17 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"Quality of loss" has only been utilized one time in the history of CFB, to put Bama in the BCS title game over OKST in 2011. All the computers had OSU ahead based on quality of wins (Big XII was stacked with QB's that year and the round robin was brutal) but Bama lost to LSU in the 9-6 "Game of the Century" while OSU dropped an upset to ISU on a friday night in Ames the same day the very popular women's basketball coach died in a plane crash. The country was just dying for an SEC rematch. Not that the plane crash should matter too much in deteriming playoff standings but at least it's something wheras I have seen nothing whatsoever that excuses ND's loss to a mid MAC school. Yes, I'm still bitter as fuck, and will be til the day I die. 

That is a bitter pill

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

17 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

I don’t disagree that they pick who they want and justify it later.

Still you comparing Texas to Indiana is just a bad talking point that the national media really should stop using.

Excluding Michigan

Texas beat Vanderbilt and Arkansas who beat Alabama and Tennessee respectively.

Indiana beat Nebraska and UCLA who beat Colorado and Iowa respectively.

Even though both have easy schedules within their own conference, an easy Big Ten schedule is still far weaker than an East SEC schedule.

Ok, put Penn State in there instead of Texas.  Their schedule is really comparable to Indiana’s.

Indiana is getting treated differently because they aren’t a blue blood.  That’s my only point.  I agree that Texas has a better schedule across the board, but just pointing out neither has a marquee win.

[TKthunder2 4987]

5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Ok, put Penn State in there instead of Texas.  Their schedule is really comparable to Indiana’s.

Indiana is getting treated differently because they aren’t a blue blood.  That’s my only point.  I agree that Texas has a better schedule across the board, but just pointing out neither has a marquee win.

And that’s fair, I think Texas is more fun to talk about which is why we’re seeing these comparisons between them and Indiana, when really Penn State is skating by in a very similar situation with no national pressure for some reason.

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

9 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

And that’s fair, I think Texas is more fun to talk about which is why we’re seeing these comparisons between them and Indiana, when really Penn State is skating by in a very similar situation with no national pressure for some reason.

And that reason is Penn State has been a Top 15 program for the past 50 years, and has a massive fanbase in a state with 2 major media markets.

Which of course has fuck all to do with this season.

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5388]

They need to tweak the verbiage of the CFP bye week criteria to be more accurate. It should now read all the P3 champions get an auto bye, and the top ranked G6 champion gets a bye as well, along with the second ranked G6 champion getting the first at-large spot.

[Huckleberry 32851]

That is a terrible idea. The Big 12 has been a better football conference than the ACC for decades and is still a better football conference than the ACC this year even without Texas and Oklahoma (not that Oklahoma would be that helpful this year, man it warms my heart to have to add this parenthetical).

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

That is a terrible idea. The Big 12 has been a better football conference than the ACC for decades and is still a better football conference than the ACC this year even without Texas and Oklahoma (not that Oklahoma would be that helpful this year, man it warms my heart to have to add this parenthetical).

Welfare just likes to troll the Big 12.  It's not a serious take.

[Huckleberry 32851]

Perhaps but he enabled me to shit talk Oklahoma and that's both my birthright and my responsibility as a Texas alumnus and fan.

[closetojumping 62596]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Welfare just likes to troll the Big 12.  It's not a serious take.

As you know, we have an abundance of idiots on this board. In the hierarchy of imbeciles running amok on Surly, that dude has progressed his way in rapid fashion into like at least Colonel Buffoon or higher. It’s been a meteoric rise. 

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Perhaps but he enabled me to shit talk Oklahoma and that's both my birthright and my responsibility as a Texas alumnus and fan.

That's fair, and watching Oklahoma turn into SEC Nebraska has been both insanely predictable and wildly entertaining.

I'm a little surprised that they didn't have their Missouri Year, but I have absolutely no problem with it.

Edited 14 hours ago by Al_4_ISU

[Huckleberry 32851]

Time makes things fuzzy but Missouri didn't have their SEC years until the second and third seasons in the SEC. Their first season they missed a bowl game.

But yeah, I don't see that happening for Oklahoma.

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

At this point, there's probably 5 tiers of FBS conferences, but you have a ton of overlap at the various ends of the spectrum.  For example, the Big 10 and SEC are a tier ahead of the Big 12 and ACC, but over half of the Big 10 could be swapped for any ACC or Big 12 schools and there would be no difference in the competitiveness or value of the conference.  It's a smaller percentage of the SEC, but there are plenty of programs there you could say the same for.

Same thing happens at the bottom of the Big 12/ACC and the top of the MWC/AAC tier.  If you swapped Tulane and Boise for Houston and Wake it wouldn't make any difference in the value of any of those leagues.

SEC/Big 10 (I think SEC is clearly a better football and basketball product, but Big 10 is a financial giant)

Big 12/ACC (Big 12 is better product in football and basketball, ACC has the biggest brands of this group - but also the weakest)

AAC/New Pac (new Pac will probably get the edge here, but AAC has some frisky programs)

Sun Belt/MWC (Sun Belt is starting to move into it's own tier - MWC could be sliding into the tier below)

MAC/CUSA (Shouldn't be part of FBS)

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Time makes things fuzzy but Missouri didn't have their SEC years until the second and third seasons in the SEC. Their first season they missed a bowl game.

But yeah, I don't see that happening for Oklahoma.

Oh shit.  That's definitely a Mandela Effect thing.  I was thinking they won the East in their first SEC season.

Edited 14 hours ago by Al_4_ISU

[Valmy77 13226]

As much as I would love to rejoice at the doom of OU, I distinctly remember thinking they were ruined forever in the 1997 and 1998 era and then almost overnight they won the National Championship.

['stache 21801]

Ah the mighty ACC, being dominated by . . . SMU.

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Ah the mighty ACC, being dominated by . . . SMU.

Who's only loss is at home to a Big 12 team.

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

8 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

As much as I would love to rejoice at the doom of OU, I distinctly remember thinking they were ruined forever in the 1997 and 1998 era and then almost overnight they won the National Championship.

That's apples to oranges.  They were still one of the Top 3 historic programs in the Big 12.  In a division-less SEC it's just so crowded, and they don't have the built-in advantages of in-state talent and obscene wealth that you guys do.

OU's going to struggle to get better than 9 wins in the SEC.  They're Nebraska now.  But they've got checks and chants so who cares about actually winning football games, right?

[Js1 85305]

28 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Colonel Buffoon or higher

We need flairs just for this reason. That’s flair worthy 

['stache 21801]

Yeah I’ll need to see more bad years from OU before pissing on their eternal grave but I’m not sure they can continue to dominate in the new NIL world. The university is a financial disaster and outside a few oil guys the state is poor as fuck. You can’t discount recruiting though when you walk them through the halls with all the trophy’s and heismans so I think they should be able to still recruit well enough. I just hope the Vegetables era lasts as long as possible because he sucks shit.

I’m sure OSU would still jump at an SEC invite but I’ve come around and am glad that it’s never gonna come. We have zero chance at competing at that level in recruiting, and even if Boone was still alive and making money and willing to pay, it would be a waste of short term dollars to try and out bid the blue bloods and wannabe bluebooods (Ole Miss, etc) for incoming players. I like our strategy of continuing to find the best three star potential, coaching them up, then paying to retain if necessary, and focusing on transfers from lower divisions instead of competing financially for five star transfers.

This year is a crazy and frustrating anomaly, but I’m not concerned that we’ll be a long term cellar dweller in the Big 12. I don’t think anyone will be in that position going forward. UH and maybe Cincy are the only programs that might end up spending the majority of the future in the bottom half of the standings. The rest will fluctuate from year to year and make it interesting, although it’ll also mean that only the CCG winner gets to the playoff most years, which is fine imo.

Edited 14 hours ago by 'stache

[South Austin 52462]

31 minutes ago, 'stache said:

This year is a crazy and frustrating anomaly, but I’m not concerned that we’ll be a long term cellar dweller in the Big 12. I don’t think anyone will be in that position going forward. 

I have dreams that Baylor will reoccupy that spot it once had for so long.  But unfortunately, the alumni base woke up one day and said, "Hey, we got money! Let's spend it on football!!!"  Their rapey coach who pulled them out of the cellar is gone, but the money still flows enough to keep them from those dark Big XII days, I think.

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

31 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yeah I’ll need to see more bad years from OU before pissing on their eternal grave but I’m not sure they can continue to dominate in the new NIL world. The university is a financial disaster and outside a few oil guys the state is poor as fuck. You can’t discount recruiting though when you walk them through the halls with all the trophy’s and heismans so I think they should be able to still recruit well enough. I just hope the Vegetables era lasts as long as possible because he sucks shit.

I’m sure OSU would still jump at an SEC invite but I’ve come around and am glad that it’s never gonna come. We have zero chance at competing at that level in recruiting, and even if Boone was still alive and making money and willing to pay, it would be a waste of short term dollars to try and out bid the blue bloods and wannabe bluebooods (Ole Miss, etc) for incoming players. I like our strategy of continuing to find the best three star potential, coaching them up, then paying to retain if necessary, and focusing on transfers from lower divisions instead of competing financially for five star transfers.

This year is a crazy and frustrating anomaly, but I’m not concerned that we’ll be a long term cellar dweller in the Big 12. I don’t think anyone will be in that position going forward. UH and maybe Cincy are the only programs that might end up spending the majority of the future in the bottom half of the standings. The rest will fluctuate from year to year and make it interesting, although it’ll also mean that only the CCG winner gets to the playoff most years, which is fine imo.

This is exactly where I'm at vis a vis ISU and the Big 10 or SEC.  I know it's never happening, and I'm just fine with that because being Purdue (or even Iowa) is a lot less fun than our season has been.  Yeah, the checks are great for the department and admins, but they don't do the fans a god damn thing.  In the current Big 12 we have 4 other Big 8 programs that we've been playing my whole life (including our secondary rival) on the schedule, as well as the 2 Texas schools that have been there nearly as long as I can remember, TCU and WVU who at this point feel like familiar foes, and the 4 new programs out west that very much "fit" with the rest of us.

UH, UCF, and Cincy will always feel a little odd, but Cincy and UCF both have cool home field scenes and make life interesting.  At this point, I actually prefer the current set up in a lot of ways as long as we know we're getting a shot in the playoffs.

[Nivek 16923]

On 11/18/2024 at 1:44 PM, Skipper44 said:

this is a great deal for the big 12 imo as increasing visibility is the biggest hurdle we have as a conference.  Desmond said the quiet part out loud on Saturday 

 

Visibility is overrated.  Everyone knows who the B12 is, what schools are there.  The problem is the product.   The most exciting thing to happen to the B12 are Sanders/Colorado and the Utah/BYU officiating fuckery.  That isn't great.   

[Crockett 490]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Visibility is overrated.  Everyone knows who the B12 is, what schools are there.  The problem is the product.   The most exciting thing to happen to the B12 are Sanders/Colorado and the Utah/BYU officiating fuckery.  That isn't great.   

Wut? Big 12 After Dark has been awesome (except when we lose). Main problem is no blue bloods in football. 

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Visibility is overrated.  Everyone knows who the B12 is, what schools are there.  The problem is the product.   The most exciting thing to happen to the B12 are Sanders/Colorado and the Utah/BYU officiating fuckery.  That isn't great.   

The Big 10 is laughing hysterically.

The Big 12's biggest problem is media treatment, and at this point there isn't anything that's a close second.  I'm not really sure how to fix it, but these games are way more entertaining than a lot of Big 10 games.  It ain't the product.

People who watch because they want to see the best aren't that into college football anyways.  They're NFL honks.

Edited 11 hours ago by Al_4_ISU

['stache 21801]

The product is great. Visibility will be the struggle because the logos on the helmets aren't the ones that traditionally draw the biggest ratings. The new payouts don't need to match or even come close to helmet school ratings but they need to remain solid through good games and decent time slots. It seems to be working out pretty well so far with the first year being absolutely unpredictable so far with some really good games. 

[Huckleberry 32851]

Agree with the left behind guys, Big 12 football is still fun to watch and a quality product. 

['stache 21801]

Holy shit, I didn't watch this game, but this is nuts. QB punts and it hits the defender in the helmet who had no idea it was a punt. BYU safety saw it and flubbed the recovery. The first part is just crazy to me.

 

['stache 21801]

And now this, is Prime seriously considering sticking around for a while, or lying about it? Maybe he's being honest that it'll just be a year or so which I guess doesn't really matter anymore since he can just transfer wherever after Prime leaves. I bet this kid ends up playing for at least 3 schools. One or two years with Prime, then to a blueblood, then to another blueblood (assuming he's actually good).

[Chewbacca 7771]

And now this, is Prime seriously considering sticking around for a while, or lying about it? Maybe he's being honest that it'll just be a year or so which I guess doesn't really matter anymore since he can just transfer wherever after Prime leaves. I bet this kid ends up playing for at least 3 schools. One or two years with Prime, then to a blueblood, then to another blueblood (assuming he's actually good).

He has repeatedly said he wants to win a national championship at CU and he does seem to love Boulder. I think there are very few programs that will give him the level of control he has at CU. There are more big recruiting flips to come, too.

That said, who knows what the future holds. I'm just enjoying the ride for however long it lasts.

[bad_teammate 13193]

It's December of 2027 and Deion is holding up his second Big 12 championship trophy on the way to his third playoff appearance.

Surly, "Ha! Any minute now it will all fall apart around this fool's feet!"

 

[Al_4_ISU 12457]

31 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It's December of 2027 and Deion is holding up his second Big 12 championship trophy on the way to his third playoff appearance.

Surly, "Ha! Any minute now it will all fall apart around this fool's feet!"

 

I mean, that would be pretty much the entirety of CFB fandom/media.

I was convinced he was gonna eat shit and flame out this year.  Whoops.

[Helobious 9448]

2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I mean, that would be pretty much the entirety of CFB fandom/media.

I was convinced he was gonna eat shit and flame out this year.  Whoops.

He would’ve at any other point in CFB history. He was just literally built to be a coach in the NIL/transfer portal era. 

[Js1 85305]

3 hours ago, 'stache said:

And now this, is Prime seriously considering sticking around for a while, or lying about it? Maybe he's being honest that it'll just be a year or so which I guess doesn't really matter anymore since he can just transfer wherever after Prime leaves. I bet this kid ends up playing for at least 3 schools. One or two years with Prime, then to a blueblood, then to another blueblood (assuming he's actually good).

 

Coaches are always sticking around until the college blueblood or NFL come calling. 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5388]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Agree with the left behind guys, Big 12 football is still fun to watch and a quality product. 

"I've been listening to this guy Zamfir, turns out he's sold more albums than the beatles. Makes better music too."

And they seriously believe it too, so fucking adorable.

[Hurtlocker 2212]

11 hours ago, South Austin said:

I have dreams that Baylor will reoccupy that spot it once had for so long.  But unfortunately, the alumni base woke up one day and said, "Hey, we got money! Let's spend it on football!!!"  Their rapey coach who pulled them out of the cellar is gone, but the money still flows enough to keep them from those dark Big XII days, I think.

I also share this dream.