Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[statsman 5482]

29 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Soooo is the Big 12 hanging on to a playoff spot for dear life? Maybe not yet but another week of chaos and some committee chicanery and they might be...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-reaction-nightmare-scenario-emerges-for-big-12-after-latest-top-25-revealed/

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College Football Playoff Rankings reaction: Nightmare scenario emerges for Big 12 after latest top 25 revealed

Boise State is on pace to beat the Big 12 champion for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and with Tulane on the rise, could the Green Wave push the conference entirely out of the 12-team playoff?

 

 

The Big 12 is slowly creeping up on Boise State in the College Football Playoff rankings, but it might not be enough for the power conference champion to secure a first-round bye.

In recent weeks, the selection committee has made it clear the Big 12 needs an emphatic, overwhelming champion to leapfrog No. 11 Boise State. It could happen, but it seems less likely with each passing week. 

With nine teams still alive for the conference championship heading into the regular-season finale, the Big 12 is a mess. The two highest-ranked teams -- No. 16 Arizona State and No. 18 Iowa State -- face another concern that hasn't gone unnoticed: Is the door open for No. 17 Tulane to win the AAC championship, jump the Big 12 and potentially push the power conference out of the 12-team field entirely?

It's unlikely, sure, but worth monitoring.

The Big 12 needed a BYU win at Arizona State last week. Instead, the Cougars fell on the road when a Hail Mary pass was caught short of the end zone at the 2-yard line. BYU entered last week at No. 14, just two spots behind Boise State, but plummeted to No. 19 this week as Arizona State and Iowa State moved up. Kansas State also entered the rankings at No. 24.

There's just one problem: Kansas State, which beat Tulane in New Orleans earlier this season, is ranked below the Green Wave. Once again, it's clear the committee does not view the Big 12 in a favorable light. Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark went on the offensive Monday.

"Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12's champion not getting a first-round bye," Yormark told Yahoo Sports. "The winner of our championship should receive a bye. I have a lot of trust in the selection committee and I'm sure they'll see it that way. Just look at the data. The data doesn't lie. From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State."

Regarding head-to-head schedules, the Big 12's contenders have the upper hand. Boise State's strength of schedule ranks 81st, 15 spots below Arizona State. The Sun Devils and Broncos also have a common opponent in Wyoming. Arizona State defeated the Cowboys 48-7 in its season opener. Last week, the Broncos struggled to put them away in a 17-13 road win, which included a stretch without Heisman Trophy hopeful Ashton Jeanty on the field.

The Sun Devils also own back-to-back wins against ranked teams heading into the final week, while Boise State has none. America has fallen in love with Ashton Jeanty, but that shouldn't overshadow the Broncos' weaker résumé.

If two-loss Iowa State or another lower-ranked team like No. 25 Colorado, with three losses, wins the Big 12 title, what happens then? A first-round bye is likely off the board, but would Tulane jump to the front of the pile as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion? The Green Wave jumped four spots this week despite not playing, but their strength of schedule is much worse than the Big 12 contenders, coming in at No. 100. Again, Kansas State remains below Tulane despite the head-to-head advantage.

Meanwhile, the SEC is in the shadows, wringing its hands and likely devising a campaign to push the committee to consider a fourth team from the conference. Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina are on the outside, ranked No. 13-15, but the Gamecocks have an opportunity to improve their three-loss résumé with a trip to No. 12 Clemson this week. Alabama owns a head-to-head win against South Carolina.

Two weeks remain, and for one more week, the selection committee will conduct its exercise of ranking the 25 best teams. Then comes the one that matters on Selection Sunday -- and all bets are off after the fiasco of 2023, when Florida State was controversially dropped from the field.

We toil for now, but like a pile of leaves on a windy fall day, the CFP rankings will again blow away this weekend. And the committee will start anew after yet another unpredictable slate of games.

 

Brett Yormark if Tulane wins the AAC and somehow jumps whoever wins the Big 12

Klatt addressed this in his latest podcast (he is very good on these topics). He believes:

1. The CFP committee is absolutely ready to give a bye to Boise, no matter what happens in the B12 final weekends. 
2. He believes it is possible that if Tulane wins out, and the B12 yields a chaos champ (4 loss TT or Baylor), Tulane could pass them and leave the B12 entirely out of the CFP. He believes that if BYU, ISU, KSU or CU win it, the committee will jump the champ over Tulane, putting them in the CFP. 
 
Klatt, for reasons personal (Buff grad) and professional, is pro-B12. He calls it a “flat” conference- no one is too high or low wrt peers. That’s great for Saturday game competitiveness but awful for other reasons:

-Conferences always have to look ahead to the next media contract. Being compared to the AAC and MW, instead of the B1G and SEC, is bad for business. 
-If the ACC gets two teams in, as looks possible/probable, it cements their status as the third best conference. FSU and Clemson struggles also help stabilize the ACC. 
-The B12 has existed for almost 30 years. Six of the 16 are original members. Eight of the 16 have belonged for two seasons or less. It badly needs cohesiveness. 

[Bullneck 19210]

^^ That's a great write up.  

Also, WTF is going on with Okie Lite?  Life for them was all good until conference play started. 

[DFW Horn 6214]

I'm just glad we no longer have to worry about the Big 12 getting fucked and we now benefit from ESPN's and the media's SEC SEC SEC bias. Life is good.

['stache 21873]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Klatt addressed this in his latest podcast (he is very good on these topics). He believes:

1. The CFP committee is absolutely ready to give a bye to Boise, no matter what happens in the B12 final weekends. 
2. He believes it is possible that if Tulane wins out, and the B12 yields a chaos champ (4 loss TT or Baylor), Tulane could pass them and leave the B12 entirely out of the CFP. He believes that if BYU, ISU, KSU or CU win it, the committee will jump the champ over Tulane, putting them in the CFP. 
 
Klatt, for reasons personal (Buff grad) and professional, is pro-B12. He calls it a “flat” conference- no one is too high or low wrt peers. That’s great for Saturday game competitiveness but awful for other reasons:

-Conferences always have to look ahead to the next media contract. Being compared to the AAC and MW, instead of the B1G and SEC, is bad for business. 
-If the ACC gets two teams in, as looks possible/probable, it cements their status as the third best conference. FSU and Clemson struggles also help stabilize the ACC. 
-The B12 has existed for almost 30 years. Six of the 16 are original members. Eight of the 16 have belonged for two seasons or less. It badly needs cohesiveness. 

The chaos champ is very unlikely. Each upset is possible and at least one is likely to happen but all of them happening in one week is extremely low odds, but who knows, would be fun to see for the lols I guess.

And lol at status being “cemented” in one season. The ACC will have plenty of years with 2 or 3 loss champs and one spot. The fact that SMU came off the AAC bench and dominated those fools says way more about the status of the “mighty” ACC.

[BurntOrange&White 40027]

Do the most Gundy thing possible and beat Colorado!

['stache 21873]

11 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Do the most Gundy thing possible and beat Colorado!

Our freshman QB was finally given a chance and looks good. Defense still can’t stop a light breeze. Shedeur and Hunter are gonna have a field day and I don’t see how we stop it unfortunately.

[statsman 5482]

39 minutes ago, 'stache said:

The chaos champ is very unlikely. Each upset is possible and at least one is likely to happen but all of them happening in one week is extremely low odds, but who knows, would be fun to see for the lols I guess.

And lol at status being “cemented” in one season. The ACC will have plenty of years with 2 or 3 loss champs and one spot. The fact that SMU came off the AAC bench and dominated those fools says way more about the status of the “mighty” ACC.

Yeah, “cements” is too strong. “Supports” would have been better. 
 
Next season, FSU and Clemson will still believe they should be in a better league. I don’t know that they will have any more options than this year. The ACC is likely, like this year, to have better ratings than the B12 and more and stronger CFP aspirants than the B12. 
 
SMU? I can’t stand that program, for a lot of reasons, but it has a strategy for this era- use booster money to buy football success. Football success, not to improve the school’s brand (they don’t care), nor to increase local popularity (they don’t care), but simply to give those boosters some bragging rights. Dismiss them at your peril

 

['stache 21873]

I have an SMU degree in my wall, I’m all for them blowing up however it happens. I think Clemson’s “blue blood” run is over. FSU is a wildcard, not sure if they’ll go the way of Nebraska or find their way back, I think the latter. SMU will be a regular at the top because most of the ACC is dogshit. Which changes my mind on CFP spots. ACC will get two in more often than the Big XII because the bottom half of the ACC are punching bags to inflate records while the bottom half of the Big XII will always be salty making it harder to come out with fewer than two losses at the top.

[Al_4_ISU 12487]

The ACC has more shitty programs, which makes it easier for the better programs to finish with 1 or 2 losses.  The Big 12 is much deeper.  Like it's not even close.

Unfortunately, this makes it a lot harder in regards to the CFP.

EDIT:  'stache and I with the same basic post at the exact same time.

Edited 1 hour ago by Al_4_ISU

[DFW Horn 6214]

18 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I have an SMU degree in my wall, I’m all for them blowing up however it happens. I think Clemson’s “blue blood” run is over. FSU is a wildcard, not sure if they’ll go the way of Nebraska or find their way back, I think the latter. SMU will be a regular at the top because most of the ACC is dogshit. Which changes my mind on CFP spots. ACC will get two in more often than the Big XII because the bottom half of the ACC are punching bags to inflate records while the bottom half of the Big XII will always be salty making it harder to come out with fewer than two losses at the top.

FSU won't go the way of Nebraska because they have a wealth of in-state talent who grew up wanting to be Seminoles.

SMU will be a regular at the top because of NIL and DFW area talent.

NE has jackshit

[thunderlounge 7939]

43 minutes ago, statsman said:

SMU? I can’t stand that program, for a lot of reasons, but it has a strategy for this era- use booster money to buy football success. Football success, not to improve the school’s brand (they don’t care), nor to increase local popularity (they don’t care), but simply to give those boosters some bragging rights. Dismiss them at your peril

 

Never discount people with a fuckton of money, and their bets. They'll wreck shop.

 

[kevwun 15915]

2 hours ago, Bullneck said:

^^ That's a great write up.  

Also, WTF is going on with Okie Lite?  Life for them was all good until conference play started. 

Ollie Gordon has sucked this season.  He lost a ton of money coming back another year.

[thunderlounge 7939]