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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


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29 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Soooo is the Big 12 hanging on to a playoff spot for dear life? Maybe not yet but another week of chaos and some committee chicanery and they might be...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-rankings-reaction-nightmare-scenario-emerges-for-big-12-after-latest-top-25-revealed/

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College Football Playoff Rankings reaction: Nightmare scenario emerges for Big 12 after latest top 25 revealed

Boise State is on pace to beat the Big 12 champion for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, and with Tulane on the rise, could the Green Wave push the conference entirely out of the 12-team playoff?

 

 

The Big 12 is slowly creeping up on Boise State in the College Football Playoff rankings, but it might not be enough for the power conference champion to secure a first-round bye.

In recent weeks, the selection committee has made it clear the Big 12 needs an emphatic, overwhelming champion to leapfrog No. 11 Boise State. It could happen, but it seems less likely with each passing week. 

With nine teams still alive for the conference championship heading into the regular-season finale, the Big 12 is a mess. The two highest-ranked teams -- No. 16 Arizona State and No. 18 Iowa State -- face another concern that hasn't gone unnoticed: Is the door open for No. 17 Tulane to win the AAC championship, jump the Big 12 and potentially push the power conference out of the 12-team field entirely?

It's unlikely, sure, but worth monitoring.

The Big 12 needed a BYU win at Arizona State last week. Instead, the Cougars fell on the road when a Hail Mary pass was caught short of the end zone at the 2-yard line. BYU entered last week at No. 14, just two spots behind Boise State, but plummeted to No. 19 this week as Arizona State and Iowa State moved up. Kansas State also entered the rankings at No. 24.

There's just one problem: Kansas State, which beat Tulane in New Orleans earlier this season, is ranked below the Green Wave. Once again, it's clear the committee does not view the Big 12 in a favorable light. Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark went on the offensive Monday.

"Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12's champion not getting a first-round bye," Yormark told Yahoo Sports. "The winner of our championship should receive a bye. I have a lot of trust in the selection committee and I'm sure they'll see it that way. Just look at the data. The data doesn't lie. From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State."

Regarding head-to-head schedules, the Big 12's contenders have the upper hand. Boise State's strength of schedule ranks 81st, 15 spots below Arizona State. The Sun Devils and Broncos also have a common opponent in Wyoming. Arizona State defeated the Cowboys 48-7 in its season opener. Last week, the Broncos struggled to put them away in a 17-13 road win, which included a stretch without Heisman Trophy hopeful Ashton Jeanty on the field.

The Sun Devils also own back-to-back wins against ranked teams heading into the final week, while Boise State has none. America has fallen in love with Ashton Jeanty, but that shouldn't overshadow the Broncos' weaker résumé.

If two-loss Iowa State or another lower-ranked team like No. 25 Colorado, with three losses, wins the Big 12 title, what happens then? A first-round bye is likely off the board, but would Tulane jump to the front of the pile as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion? The Green Wave jumped four spots this week despite not playing, but their strength of schedule is much worse than the Big 12 contenders, coming in at No. 100. Again, Kansas State remains below Tulane despite the head-to-head advantage.

Meanwhile, the SEC is in the shadows, wringing its hands and likely devising a campaign to push the committee to consider a fourth team from the conference. Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina are on the outside, ranked No. 13-15, but the Gamecocks have an opportunity to improve their three-loss résumé with a trip to No. 12 Clemson this week. Alabama owns a head-to-head win against South Carolina.

Two weeks remain, and for one more week, the selection committee will conduct its exercise of ranking the 25 best teams. Then comes the one that matters on Selection Sunday -- and all bets are off after the fiasco of 2023, when Florida State was controversially dropped from the field.

We toil for now, but like a pile of leaves on a windy fall day, the CFP rankings will again blow away this weekend. And the committee will start anew after yet another unpredictable slate of games.

Hanging On Season 5 GIF by NBC

 

Brett Yormark if Tulane wins the AAC and somehow jumps whoever wins the Big 12

Eric Andre GIF

Klatt addressed this in his latest podcast (he is very good on these topics). He believes:

1. The CFP committee is absolutely ready to give a bye to Boise, no matter what happens in the B12 final weekends. 
2. He believes it is possible that if Tulane wins out, and the B12 yields a chaos champ (4 loss TT or Baylor), Tulane could pass them and leave the B12 entirely out of the CFP. He believes that if BYU, ISU, KSU or CU win it, the committee will jump the champ over Tulane, putting them in the CFP. 
 
Klatt, for reasons personal (Buff grad) and professional, is pro-B12. He calls it a “flat” conference- no one is too high or low wrt peers. That’s great for Saturday game competitiveness but awful for other reasons:

-Conferences always have to look ahead to the next media contract. Being compared to the AAC and MW, instead of the B1G and SEC, is bad for business. 
-If the ACC gets two teams in, as looks possible/probable, it cements their status as the third best conference. FSU and Clemson struggles also help stabilize the ACC. 
-The B12 has existed for almost 30 years. Six of the 16 are original members. Eight of the 16 have belonged for two seasons or less. It badly needs cohesiveness. 

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

Klatt addressed this in his latest podcast (he is very good on these topics). He believes:

1. The CFP committee is absolutely ready to give a bye to Boise, no matter what happens in the B12 final weekends. 
2. He believes it is possible that if Tulane wins out, and the B12 yields a chaos champ (4 loss TT or Baylor), Tulane could pass them and leave the B12 entirely out of the CFP. He believes that if BYU, ISU, KSU or CU win it, the committee will jump the champ over Tulane, putting them in the CFP. 
 
Klatt, for reasons personal (Buff grad) and professional, is pro-B12. He calls it a “flat” conference- no one is too high or low wrt peers. That’s great for Saturday game competitiveness but awful for other reasons:

-Conferences always have to look ahead to the next media contract. Being compared to the AAC and MW, instead of the B1G and SEC, is bad for business. 
-If the ACC gets two teams in, as looks possible/probable, it cements their status as the third best conference. FSU and Clemson struggles also help stabilize the ACC. 
-The B12 has existed for almost 30 years. Six of the 16 are original members. Eight of the 16 have belonged for two seasons or less. It badly needs cohesiveness. 

The chaos champ is very unlikely. Each upset is possible and at least one is likely to happen but all of them happening in one week is extremely low odds, but who knows, would be fun to see for the lols I guess.

And lol at status being “cemented” in one season. The ACC will have plenty of years with 2 or 3 loss champs and one spot. The fact that SMU came off the AAC bench and dominated those fools says way more about the status of the “mighty” ACC.

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39 minutes ago, 'stache said:

The chaos champ is very unlikely. Each upset is possible and at least one is likely to happen but all of them happening in one week is extremely low odds, but who knows, would be fun to see for the lols I guess.

And lol at status being “cemented” in one season. The ACC will have plenty of years with 2 or 3 loss champs and one spot. The fact that SMU came off the AAC bench and dominated those fools says way more about the status of the “mighty” ACC.

Yeah, “cements” is too strong. “Supports” would have been better. 
 
Next season, FSU and Clemson will still believe they should be in a better league. I don’t know that they will have any more options than this year. The ACC is likely, like this year, to have better ratings than the B12 and more and stronger CFP aspirants than the B12. 
 
SMU? I can’t stand that program, for a lot of reasons, but it has a strategy for this era- use booster money to buy football success. Football success, not to improve the school’s brand (they don’t care), nor to increase local popularity (they don’t care), but simply to give those boosters some bragging rights. Dismiss them at your peril

 

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I have an SMU degree in my wall, I’m all for them blowing up however it happens. I think Clemson’s “blue blood” run is over. FSU is a wildcard, not sure if they’ll go the way of Nebraska or find their way back, I think the latter. SMU will be a regular at the top because most of the ACC is dogshit. Which changes my mind on CFP spots. ACC will get two in more often than the Big XII because the bottom half of the ACC are punching bags to inflate records while the bottom half of the Big XII will always be salty making it harder to come out with fewer than two losses at the top.

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The ACC has more shitty programs, which makes it easier for the better programs to finish with 1 or 2 losses.  The Big 12 is much deeper.  Like it's not even close.

Unfortunately, this makes it a lot harder in regards to the CFP.

EDIT:  'stache and I with the same basic post at the exact same time.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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18 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I have an SMU degree in my wall, I’m all for them blowing up however it happens. I think Clemson’s “blue blood” run is over. FSU is a wildcard, not sure if they’ll go the way of Nebraska or find their way back, I think the latter. SMU will be a regular at the top because most of the ACC is dogshit. Which changes my mind on CFP spots. ACC will get two in more often than the Big XII because the bottom half of the ACC are punching bags to inflate records while the bottom half of the Big XII will always be salty making it harder to come out with fewer than two losses at the top.

FSU won't go the way of Nebraska because they have a wealth of in-state talent who grew up wanting to be Seminoles.

SMU will be a regular at the top because of NIL and DFW area talent.

NE has jackshit

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43 minutes ago, statsman said:

SMU? I can’t stand that program, for a lot of reasons, but it has a strategy for this era- use booster money to buy football success. Football success, not to improve the school’s brand (they don’t care), nor to increase local popularity (they don’t care), but simply to give those boosters some bragging rights. Dismiss them at your peril

 

Never discount people with a fuckton of money, and their bets. They'll wreck shop.

 

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9 hours ago, 'stache said:

The chaos champ is very unlikely. Each upset is possible and at least one is likely to happen but all of them happening in one week is extremely low odds, but who knows, would be fun to see for the lols I guess.

And lol at status being “cemented” in one season. The ACC will have plenty of years with 2 or 3 loss champs and one spot. The fact that SMU came off the AAC bench and dominated those fools says way more about the status of the “mighty” ACC.

I love how the crux of this post is "these things, they take time" as though we don't have like 60+ years of data points backing up the current Bitch 12 members being complete losers. But yeah, if they're bad for 1 or 2 more years, boy howdy will UH's reputation dive. 🙄

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8 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The ACC has more shitty programs, which makes it easier for the better programs to finish with 1 or 2 losses.  The Big 12 is much deeper.  Like it's not even close.

Unfortunately, this makes it a lot harder in regards to the CFP.

EDIT:  'stache and I with the same basic post at the exact same time.

This is true.  Klatt's "flat league" and On3's "no bad teams" are accurate descriptions.  It's stronger than the ACC in every respect and in my model the average team rating isn't far off that of the B1G.  It's cannabalizing itself ltop to bottom the same way the middle of the SEC is.

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9 minutes ago, JBJ said:

This is true.  Klatt's "flat league" and On3's "no bad teams" are accurate descriptions.  It's stronger than the ACC in every respect and in my model the average team rating isn't far off that of the B1G.  It's cannabalizing itself ltop to bottom the same way the middle of the SEC is.

2/3rds of the Big 10 are indistinguishable from the average Big 12 or ACC program.  They’re just lucky that Ohio State and Michigan enjoy propping them up financially.

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47 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

2/3rds of the Big 10 are indistinguishable from the average Big 12 or ACC program.  They’re just lucky that Ohio State and Michigan enjoy propping them up financially.

10 out of the 18 teams in the Big 10 have at least one national championship in their history. 13 of the 16 Big 12 teams have never sniffed a single one. Now forgive me if my math isn't Ames, Iowa-level of excellence, but ((8/18)*100) = 44%, and ((2/3)*100) = 66%. Why... those numbers don't seem equivalent at all! Meaning there is definitely SOMETHING that distinguishes the average Big 10 team from the default mode of the Big 12 (hint: success, viewers, actual competency).

 

EDIT: Forgot the mormon's adorable micro-MNC, so added 1 more to the Bitch 12 championship total

Edited by WelfareBuysMyWeed
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2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Yeah all of Minnesota’s Eisenhower Administration natties mean something now as they struggle to fill a 50K stadium.

The further back we go the more horseshit the title claims become. The BCS and 4 team playoffs were bad enough, tons of teams didn't get invites. Prior to that, basically any sports writer could claim a school was the champ.

Outside of Ohio St and Michigan, I can't think of a legacy Big 10 team that has done shit near an MNC in the past 50-55 years. It's literally been those 2 teams and the rest of the conference has been cannon fodder.

Edited by redswingline
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2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

2/3rds of the Big 10 are indistinguishable from the average Big 12 or ACC program.  They’re just lucky that Ohio State and Michigan enjoy propping them up financially.

Oh, horseshit! Take a goddamned look at TV ratings of games between Minnesota and Illinois, or Michigan State and Iowa.  Iowa State doesn’t sniff that in a B12 game unless they’re playing Colorado. 
 
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
 
I see a B1G game between Purdue and Michigan State that was viewed by 1.8M. I see A Minnesota- Rutgers game viewed by 1.2M. I’m sorry, but the lower tier B1G and SEC programs that you enjoy claiming only have the good fortune of better associates actually bring more to the table. Maybe it’s demographics, maybe it’s more living alumni, who knows? Please stop saying that the lesser B1G programs are no better than B12 teams unless you can explain why so many more people want to watch their games. 

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2 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Yeah all of Minnesota’s Eisenhower Administration natties mean something now as they struggle to fill a 50K stadium.

Well I mean they could be struggling to fill 40k stadiums without actual literal success like bitch 12 teams such as UH, but I do believe the claim was that they were indistinguishable. I was able to distinguish between the conference full of losers without a national championships from the conference full of losers with national championships pretty damn easily. Does ISU offer a class in "spot the difference? Maybe they should.

  

14 minutes ago, statsman said:

Please stop saying that the lesser B1G programs are no better than B12 teams unless you can explain why so many more people want to watch their games. 

Well first of all, their national championships don't count because of reasons. And secondly, why measure TV ratings when you can brag about selling out exponentially smaller stadiums? Why make billions when we could make.... millions?

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17 minutes ago, statsman said:

Oh, horseshit! Take a goddamned look at TV ratings of games between Minnesota and Illinois, or Michigan State and Iowa.  Iowa State doesn’t sniff that in a B12 game unless they’re playing Colorado. 
 
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
 
I see a B1G game between Purdue and Michigan State that was viewed by 1.8M. I see A Minnesota- Rutgers game viewed by 1.2M. I’m sorry, but the lower tier B1G and SEC programs that you enjoy claiming only have the good fortune of better associates actually bring more to the table. Maybe it’s demographics, maybe it’s more living alumni, who knows? Please stop saying that the lesser B1G programs are no better than B12 teams unless you can explain why so many more people want to watch their games. 

Those B1G games were OTA on NBC and FOX which give them boosted numbers. Even so, I see Big 12 games pulling similar numbers on ESPN even without Colorado. 

BYU in the last 3 weeks pulled 2 million, 1.75 million and 1.3 million. K State/Houston did 1.5 million and Iowa State/Tech did 1.25, and again this is leaving out a few ratings monsters courtesy of The Sanders Family and Travis Hunter.

Overall, the Big 12 is doing pretty good with TV metrics if you simply acknowledge they will not (typically) beat out Michigan/Ohio St/Penn St/Oregon/USC, Notre Dame, or any of the featured SEC games.

They hold their own pretty well against the ACC and the mid Big Ten teams, it’s just the playoffs they have to worry about. If they prove to be non factor multiple years in a row it’s eventually going to take its toll on the regular season television ratings.

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7 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Those B1G games were OTA on NBC and FOX which give them boosted numbers. Even so, I see Big 12 games pulling similar numbers on ESPN even without Colorado. 

BYU in the last 3 weeks pulled 2 million, 1.75 million and 1.3 million. K State/Houston did 1.5 million and Iowa State/Tech did 1.25, and again this is leaving out a few ratings monsters courtesy of The Sanders Family and Travis Hunter.

Overall, the Big 12 is doing pretty good with TV metrics if you simply acknowledge they will not (typically) beat out Michigan/Ohio St/Penn St/Oregon/USC, Notre Dame, or any of the featured SEC games.

They hold their own pretty well against the ACC and the mid Big Ten teams, it’s just the playoffs they have to worry about. If they prove to be non factor multiple years in a row it’s eventually going to take its toll on the regular season television ratings.

Please. Baylor at UH- 210k. Cincy at KSU- 369K. OSU at TCU- 355K. UCF at ASU- 378K.  Note- each of these games involves at least one team representing a high population state. Remember what was said when the league made the adds? “Cincinnati is from a high population density part of Ohio! UH will bring the Houston market! UCF gets into Florida!”
 

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On 11/27/2024 at 7:01 AM, statsman said:

Klatt, for reasons personal (Buff grad) and professional, is pro-B12. He calls it a “flat” conference- no one is too high or low wrt peers. That’s great for Saturday game competitiveness but awful for other reasons:

That's what the Little 12 wanted, judging by the way they treated Texas.

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2 hours ago, statsman said:

Please. Baylor at UH- 210k. Cincy at KSU- 369K. OSU at TCU- 355K. UCF at ASU- 378K.  Note- each of these games involves at least one team representing a high population state. Remember what was said when the league made the adds? “Cincinnati is from a high population density part of Ohio! UH will bring the Houston market! UCF gets into Florida!”
 

The evidence you’re using is faulty, not to mention you’re moving the goal post.

I can go to SMW and cherry pick some bottom of the barrel Big Ten games too (Rutger/Maryland or Illinois/Iowa) that pulled less than half a million viewers.

Hell it’s Thanksgiving so I’ll give you a better talking point.

Count how many Big Ten games were rated versus how many Big 12 game were. Count viewership for the Big Ten versus the Big 12 in a single weekend. The games you are highlighting are MID tier Big 12 games. Their worst games go to ESPN+ and don’t get rated.

The Big Ten has 3 OTA windows and often plays a Friday OTA game, plus takes up a majority of FS1 and still has content for the BTN and a game for Peacock.

The Big 12 gets 1-2 on FOX, 1-2 on ESPN, 1-2 on FS1/ESPN2, and nearly half the leagues content goes directly to ESPN+.

This means when comparing bad games we’re looking at the 4th or 5th Big 12 game versus the 7th or 8th Big Ten game. So even though they might look similar, it’s not.

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the hate for the big 12 is aggy like. college football is almost over so im gonna miss all those games between shit schools while drinking beer. And I think Iowa state vs Kansas state is way better than Purdue Indiana. good luck to the big 12. I don't miss all the jihad games we had with y'all, but conferences will be a thing of the past pretty soon at least in football. enjoy all the games fellas, it's almost over. 

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23 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

 

Hell it’s Thanksgiving so I’ll give you a better talking point.

Count how many Big Ten games were rated versus how many Big 12 game were. Count viewership for the Big Ten versus the Big 12 in a single weekend. The games you are highlighting are MID tier Big 12 games. Their worst games go to ESPN+ and don’t get rated.

The Big Ten has 3 OTA windows and often plays a Friday OTA game, plus takes up a majority of FS1 and still has content for the BTN and a game for Peacock.

 

I’m not sure what point you’re making. The B1G makes more money off tv than any other conference. A lot of that is due to the BTN, which is much more successful than any other conference’s. 
 
Is B1G fervor greater than the SEC’s? I doubt it. One thing I suspect, although I have no way of knowing if this is an official network metric: the B1G fanbase is more valued by advertisers than the SEC’s (or ACC’s or B12’s). Higher incomes, more wealth. 
 
The leader B12 games go to streaming. A conference network just wouldn’t have enough value to create. 
 
Baylor won the B12 in 2021. It seems like a third of their games are on streaming now. That is not a sign of health. 
 
The SEC has serious decisions to make- add a ninth game, and collect more media revenue, but possibly at the risk of jeapordizing the number of CFP participants (those losses have to go somewhere)?

The B12? It has a contract through 2031. How to maintain?

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48 minutes ago, statsman said:

I’m not sure what point you’re making. The B1G makes more money off tv than any other conference. A lot of that is due to the BTN, which is much more successful than any other conference’s. 
 
Is B1G fervor greater than the SEC’s? I doubt it. One thing I suspect, although I have no way of knowing if this is an official network metric: the B1G fanbase is more valued by advertisers than the SEC’s (or ACC’s or B12’s). Higher incomes, more wealth. 
 
The leader B12 games go to streaming. A conference network just wouldn’t have enough value to create. 
 
Baylor won the B12 in 2021. It seems like a third of their games are on streaming now. That is not a sign of health. 
 
The SEC has serious decisions to make- add a ninth game, and collect more media revenue, but possibly at the risk of jeapordizing the number of CFP participants (those losses have to go somewhere)?

The B12? It has a contract through 2031. How to maintain?

I was giving you a better talking point.

Instead of saying the Big 12 is trash look at their ratings to which anyone can say look at the weak ass Big Ten ratings for their weaker teams, you should compare total ratings for each conference.

Because the Big 12 is heavy in streaming on ESPN+ their numbers are hidden meaning if their mid tier games are weak their low tier games are complete trash.

But yes the Big Ten’s tv deal is obviously stronger but the Big 12 is meeting it’s expectations as the #3 conference.

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23 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

 

But yes the Big Ten’s tv deal is obviously stronger but the Big 12 is meeting its expectations as the #3 conference.

Which is why I don’t get the scuttlebutt that they may only get one team in. Why would you treat one of the big three with such disrespect 

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46 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Which is why I don’t get the scuttlebutt that they may only get one team in. Why would you treat one of the big three with such disrespect 

How different is this conversation if the ACC is beating each other up and the Big 12 has a bunch of 1 loss teams?

Maybe it looks the same, but I’m guessing it’s flipped.

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26 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I don’t think that was ever really a thing for you guys.  Your brand transcended it.

Maybe, but it's also fun to dispel "SEC superiority" every chance we get.

It's funny how aggy went from talking about the "SEC gauntlet" holding them back to "tu has an 'easy' SEC schedule". It only took one season.

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1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

Which is why I don’t get the scuttlebutt that they may only get one team in. Why would you treat one of the big three with such disrespect 

TV ratings and money do not equal rankings and playoff bids, though I’ve always believed the Big 12 would get at least 1 team in because otherwise it’s a really bad look for a conference that has a partnership with ESPN. They’d prefer it be Colorado but looks like that’s not going to happen.

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6 hours ago, statsman said:

I’m not sure what point you’re making. The B1G makes more money off tv than any other conference. A lot of that is due to the BTN, which is much more successful than any other conference’s. 
 
Is B1G fervor greater than the SEC’s? I doubt it. One thing I suspect, although I have no way of knowing if this is an official network metric: the B1G fanbase is more valued by advertisers than the SEC’s (or ACC’s or B12’s). Higher incomes, more wealth. 
 
The leader B12 games go to streaming. A conference network just wouldn’t have enough value to create. 
 
Baylor won the B12 in 2021. It seems like a third of their games are on streaming now. That is not a sign of health. 
 
The SEC has serious decisions to make- add a ninth game, and collect more media revenue, but possibly at the risk of jeapordizing the number of CFP participants (those losses have to go somewhere)?

The B12? It has a contract through 2031. How to maintain?

Asswipes in the northeast and Midwest spend the vast majority of winter indoors watching TV and so they make for a more fervent fan base especially for basketball. The SEC rednecks are rabid about football and baseball but college baseball gets significantly less media attention.

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