Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality

[oSuJeff97 3439]

20 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

It's fun to discuss which football Head Coaching jobs are the most desirable in the "New B12".

Seems like both the Ariz schools could be really good jobs in the future with the population growth out there. K-State fans are great so that's a quality job.  Tcu's location in DFW seems like a good place to coach.  Iowa State fans really support them and that's seems like another quality B12 job too.  

Not sure what okie lite will become once Gundy retires but their fans love football.  Cougar high has potential but terrible fan support. Utah and BYU fans sure are great but not as many candidates want to coach out there.  Tech's location makes it a less desirable job.  UCF has too many SEC/ACC teams recruiting in their area to build a great roster.  Baylor needs a coach like Traylor.  

Cincy and WVU just don't seem to be attractive football jobs at all.  KU is tough because you are always 2nd to their basketball team.  And without Deion, the Colorado job seems like a tough place to win.  

 

Someone mentioned it earlier but I think the "desirability" of jobs is more about fan support and organizational commitment to football.  Obviously more fans makes a job more desirable, which is literally all the last 10 years of realignment has been about. If you have lots of fans and eyeballs on your team you'll have a seat at the table no matter your on-field results.

Then in terms of organizational commitment, it used to be purely about investing in facilities. Now it's about investing in facilities and NIL. And really NIL is probably more important at this point.

The Arizona schools may be in a desirable location with population growth, but I'm not certain that they are fully committed on the second part yet so I question their overall desirability. If the reports out of Arizona are true that basically they turned down an offer to match Washington to keep Fisch, then that's troubling from a "commitment to football" standpoint.

By those standards, I think OSU, KSU, BYU and Utah stand above the rest of the BIg 12 as we speak, with maybe Iowa State and Texas Tech right below them. TCU I think is committed to football, but with a smaller fan base than those larger state schools; same goes for Baylor. Kansas has potential but they need to show that they can keep things going for more than a few years at a time or will be back to 10K fans in the stands.

And yeah Colorado seems like it's a tough place to win WITH Deion, so we'll have to see how their first few seasons play out in the Big 12 an then (more importantly) what happens when inevitably leaves.

Edited January 16 by oSuJeff97

[statsman 5693]

You’re close. There are two parts to it, as you wrote- first, the regular program operations and second, the NIL. 
 
Here are the media revenues for the conferences, per year:

B1G: $80M

SEC: $60M

Big XII: $31M

ACC: $26M

G5: $5-10M

This is the lion share of program revenue. For the best B12 team to have as much program funding as the worst B1G team, it has to immediately make up a $50M per year gap. 
(I suspect the SEC is holding off on offering a nine game conference schedule until it is offered money to close the $20M gap to the B1G). 
 
That’s where coaching and support staff salaries come from. I think strata will be solidifying really quickly. 
 
As for the ACC, I’m not convinced the SEC and B1G are looking to take on FSU, etc. For the good of the sport? 
 
Also, let’s see what the next B12 contract looks like. It seems to me that ESPN paid more this time, proportionate to Fox, than last contract, probably to assist UT and OU leaving. 

Edited January 16 by statsman

[HookEm 2509]

1 hour ago, redswingline said:

I'm not seeing this. Yeah, they may lose their best football members at some point (FSU and Clemson), but I think they added Cal, Stanford and SMU to bolster their member numbers in case Clemson and FSU bolt.

If FSU and Clemson bolt, the ACC still has 15 football programs and can go poach G5's if needed.

They'll remain the #4 of the 4 main conferences.

I just think it is going to be a feeding frenzy.  The SEC and BIG still want to add good pieces.  BIG seems to have room for two more.  SEC could add four.  That would get both to 20.  This will be their last chance to add GOOD pieces, so I think they will.  Any new contract for the ACC will be dogshit. You really think UNC or Miami will stay to prop up the ACC when they are making pennies on the dollar vs. what they could make in a better conference?  No chance. It will be PAC10 part 2.

I think when the dust settles you will have the following adds:

• BIG - FSU and Notre Dame
• SEC - UNC, Virginia, Clemson, Miami
• Big12 - Virginia Tech, Pitt, Duke, Louisville (Good enough football and great hoops)

The leftovers would then be: NC State, Wake, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, Stanford, Cal, SMU.  Plus you have Boise State, Fresno St, Oregon State, Washington State, UConn, Memphis and maybe a few others that they could add into a big national conference. 

My guess is that they won't though because nothing they do will be enough to give them an auto-bid.  Their best move would be to form a few 10-12 team regional conferences and hope to get in via the "best other conference champ" route.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1314]

9 hours ago, South Austin said:

Are you implying that App State and Liberty have some amount of prestige?

Liberty is know far and wide for the pool parties at Falwell's house.

[Chewbacca 7830]

3 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

And yeah Colorado seems like it's a tough place to win WITH Deion, so we'll have to see how their first few seasons play out in the Big 12 an then (more importantly) what happens when inevitably leaves.

CU's administration cares about winning again, so that will help quite a bit going forward, regardless of the Deion situation. It was a long 20 years wandering the desert, though.

[mdmost 44059]

So I don't think Arizona is going to dominate the Big 12 next season.

 

[statsman 5693]

Joel Klatt predicts Utah to be the B12 champ and rep in the CFP next year. 

[BurntOrange&White 41884]

9 minutes ago, statsman said:

Joel Klatt predicts Utah to be the B12 champ and rep in the CFP next year. 

Not a bad prediction if Rising is healthy and stays healthy.

I think Utah, UCF and TCU should be the favorites in the Big 12. You can never rule out K-State and Arizona losing their coach to Washington takes them out of that conversation. 

Edited January 18 by BurntOrange&White

[TKthunder2 5059]

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Not a bad prediction if Rising is healthy and stays healthy.

I think Utah, UCF and TCU should be the favorites in the Big 12. You can never rule out K-State and Arizona losing their coach to Washington takes them out of that conversation. 

Oklahoma State will be up there as well.

[Frank Drebin 5839]

Just now, TKthunder2 said:

Oklahoma State will be up there as well.

They letting Bowman start again?  If so, I doubt they are winning much.  They had ridiculous luck last year, and I doubt that repeats.

[BurntOrange&White 41884]

1 minute ago, TKthunder2 said:

Oklahoma State will be up there as well.

True....just depends on QB play for them and feeding Ollie.

[TKthunder2 5059]

8 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

They letting Bowman start again?  If so, I doubt they are winning much.  They had ridiculous luck last year, and I doubt that repeats.

They may not do as well but their schedule isn’t anything ridiculous. Arkansas and Tulsa OOC and they avoid Kansas, Iowa St, UCF, Arizona and obviously UT/OU. The only hard addition for them is Utah.

[Ojo Rojo 2054]

FSU no longer has the factor in place that kept them out - only four teams.  At 12 they get in.  So they don't have that reason for jumping ship anymore.  The bigger reason, for them or any other school, is the $$$ disparity between the conferences.  In this constantly evolving landscape, there are now two major conferences and two lesser conferences - based on the revenue from TV contracts, which tracks the relative media market value of the schools.  The reality is that each school has a certain, fairly known, value to networks.  Above a certain line and your athletic department has a chance to be profitable and you get an equal share to all the other big boys.  The money disparity will eventually have a large effect on competitiveness.  So, if you aren't in one of the two big conferences making the most money, eventually you won't be able to compete.  The wild west of NIL isn't going to last much longer.  Eventually the schools will be paying the players; the schools with the most money will be able to pay the players more and the disparity will grow even greater.  I foresee the BIG and SEC becoming like the AFC and NFC, if you will.  Their "merger" in whatever form it takes, will effectively create a new league, which could replace the NCAA for football if they wanted.  They would hold all the cards.  They could make their own rules. Call it The College Football Champions League (brought to you by AT&T). There are 32 teams in the two major conferences now.  I could see 40-48 making the cut.  The remaining will be relegated to the NCAA and compete at whatever highest level the NCAA offers.

[closetojumping 65440]

8 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

FSU no longer has the factor in place that kept them out - only four teams.  At 12 they get in.  So they don't have that reason for jumping ship anymore.  The bigger reason, for them or any other school, is the $$$ disparity between the conferences.  In this constantly evolving landscape, there are now two major conferences and two lesser conferences - based on the revenue from TV contracts, which tracks the relative media market value of the schools.  The reality is that each school has a certain, fairly known, value to networks.  Above a certain line and your athletic department has a chance to be profitable and you get an equal share to all the other big boys.  The money disparity will eventually have a large effect on competitiveness.  So, if you aren't in one of the two big conferences making the most money, eventually you won't be able to compete.  The wild west of NIL isn't going to last much longer.  Eventually the schools will be paying the players; the schools with the most money will be able to pay the players more and the disparity will grow even greater.  I foresee the BIG and SEC becoming like the AFC and NFC, if you will.  Their "merger" in whatever form it takes, will effectively create a new league, which could replace the NCAA for football if they wanted.  They would hold all the cards.  They could make their own rules. Call it The College Football Champions League (brought to you by AT&T). There are 32 34 teams in the two major conferences now.  I could see 40-48 making the cut.  The remaining will be relegated to the NCAA and compete at whatever highest level the NCAA offers.

FIFY

[Ojo Rojo 2054]

6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

FIFY

Ah, fuck.  Thanks.

[statsman 5693]

Argument for the SEC or B1G taking in FSU, Clemson, Miami and maybe a few others: these teams are major programs and can compete at the highest levels, given the chance. They are definitely stronger programs than the SEC and B1G bottom dwellers. 
 
Argument against: Have to share money and they don’t increase the relative shares with their additions. 
 
Hmmmmm, wonder which argument wins out. 
 
Argument for the SEC or B1G (who are we kidding; it’s the B1G) taking in Notre Dame: It’s Notre Dame. 

[TrashMaster G 18102]

59 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

True....just depends on QB play for them and feeding Ollie.

Anyone else think Ollie is a candidate for an on-field tantrum and suspension?

[TKthunder2 5059]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Argument for the SEC or B1G taking in FSU, Clemson, Miami and maybe a few others: these teams are major programs and can compete at the highest levels, given the chance. They are definitely stronger programs than the SEC and B1G bottom dwellers. 
 
Argument against: Have to share money and they don’t increase the relative shares with their additions. 
 
Hmmmmm, wonder which argument wins out. 
 
Argument for the SEC or B1G (who are we kidding; it’s the B1G) taking in Notre Dame: It’s Notre Dame. 

FSU, Clemson and obviously ND bring eye balls, regularly sell out their 70k+ seat stadium, and have the appropriate fan/institutional support.

Miami is different, they could be included but they aren’t the same as the above.

[statsman 5693]

Ok, maybe FSU and Clemson earn their share of the pie. Say, the pie grows enough with them that the slices stay the same size. 
 
Do they make the pie grow enough to make the slices bigger than before?

If they don’t, why would the other conference members invite them?

 

[troph 25229]

So do Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Mississippi state, northwestern, and other dog shit programs that are just historically lucky get to stay? I’d much rather see Miami in the mix over shittier programs.

Edited January 18 by troph

[Ojo Rojo 2054]

19 minutes ago, troph said:

So do Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Mississippi state, northwestern, and other dog shit programs that are just historically lucky get to stay? I’d much rather see Miami in the mix over shittier programs.

I've thought the same. Possibly the blue bloods need a few creampuffs on the schedule.

[BurntEyes 6320]

17 minutes ago, troph said:

So do Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Mississippi state, northwestern, and other dog shit programs that are just historically lucky get to stay? I’d much rather see Miami in the mix over shittier programs.

Not defending the others but Miami really was only a presence in college football from late 80s to early 2000s. Granted it was an impressive stretch but they haven't don't shit in a couple of decades (yes, I know), and they weren't shit prior to the Jimmy Johnson era on the college football landscape. Granted, that's a lot more than all the teams you mentioned. Vandy has great baseball and is in a city thats fun to "visit". They stay!!! Leave them out of your shit bag team discussion please! 

Then again maybe that's all just a residual hate from the 1990 Cotton Bowl creeping up in me. That was a very bad day.

 

[BurntEyes 6320]

2 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

I've thought the same. Possibly the blue bloods need a few creampuffs on the schedule.

I think there is this too. I suspect the OOC given the playoffs will shift to full CFP non-conference games really soon. Everyone needs a Cardinals or Detroit on the schedule.

[Vertigo 20498]

I've said for a while now that it would not surprise me in the least to see a culling of the barnacle programs in the big conferences once any super conference or additional expansion occur. If the SEC drops Vandy or Miss St, or the B1G drops Indiana or Rutgers in exchange for FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, etc. There really isn't a cohesive argument as to why it shouldn't happen outside of sentiment or historical precedent. Particularly if the TV networks put a cap on the amount of teams, and/or the payouts begin to get diluted. Would adding Florida State and Clemson be accretive to the payouts if the SEC were to drop Vandy and Miss. St? Absolutely it would. Would the B1G be a better conference if they swapped Notre Dame and North Carolina for Purdue and Rutgers? You bet. 

[Deej 77839]

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Possibly the blue bloods need a few creampuffs on the schedule.

That's what keeps aggy in. 

[redswingline 1124]

On 1/16/2024 at 3:27 PM, HookEm said:

I just think it is going to be a feeding frenzy.  The SEC and BIG still want to add good pieces.  BIG seems to have room for two more.  SEC could add four.  That would get both to 20.  This will be their last chance to add GOOD pieces, so I think they will.  Any new contract for the ACC will be dogshit. You really think UNC or Miami will stay to prop up the ACC when they are making pennies on the dollar vs. what they could make in a better conference?  No chance. It will be PAC10 part 2.

I think when the dust settles you will have the following adds:

• BIG - FSU and Notre Dame
• SEC - UNC, Virginia, Clemson, Miami
• Big12 - Virginia Tech, Pitt, Duke, Louisville (Good enough football and great hoops)

Outside of FSU, I don't think any of them move the TV revenue needle much. Why would the SEC invite those schools you listed? They won't increase TV contract value. Landing us + blou was a coup. Outside of maybe ND and FSU, there is no one else worth while for the SEC to add unless they are poaching the Big 10 or something.

If the two highest value ACC programs bolt, I think the majority of the remaining 15 stick together vs splintering across the country. I guess time will tell. I hope for ACC fans, they don't splinter.

[troph 25229]

7 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Not defending the others but Miami really was only a presence in college football from late 80s to early 2000s. Granted it was an impressive stretch but they haven't don't shit in a couple of decades (yes, I know), and they weren't shit prior to the Jimmy Johnson era on the college football landscape. Granted, that's a lot more than all the teams you mentioned. Vandy has great baseball and is in a city thats fun to "visit". They stay!!! Leave them out of your shit bag team discussion please! 

Then again maybe that's all just a residual hate from the 1990 Cotton Bowl creeping up in me. That was a very bad day.

 

Fair enough but I’m not comparing Miami to Alabama I’m comparing Miami to Northwestern and Vanderbilt. 

[BurntEyes 6320]

33 minutes ago, troph said:

Fair enough but I’m not comparing Miami to Alabama I’m comparing Miami to Northwestern and Vanderbilt. 

Look I like you. I tried to ask nicely. I didn't get to the root cause, but you've forced me into a corner troph...

It's largely from long ago, but for the next decade, Vandy needs to stay. They got good baseball, I get to see Texas play in the town I live occasionally, but more importantly...

Again, you forced me..

We got a score to settle with the 'Dores:

[troph 25229]

40 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Look I like you. I tried to ask nicely. I didn't get to the root cause, but you've forced me into a corner troph...

It's largely from long ago, but for the next decade, Vandy needs to stay. They got good baseball, I get to see Texas play in the town I live occasionally, but more importantly...

Again, you forced me..

We got a score to settle with the 'Dores:

Damn those musta been dark days. 

[TKthunder2 5059]

9 hours ago, troph said:

So do Indiana, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Mississippi state, northwestern, and other dog shit programs that are just historically lucky get to stay? I’d much rather see Miami in the mix over shittier programs.

Vandy has been covered and Northwestern is the same for the Big Ten minus the good baseball part. Indiana ain’t going anywhere, large enough state to support them, good academics and basketball royalty.

I’d trade Mississippi State or Purdue for Kansas in a heartbeat if I was either leagues. Those two schools are the luckiest in the P2.

Still, it sets a bad precedent for the Big Ten/Sec have nots if they start cutting the fat, so it will never happen. The only way would be for a new league to be created where Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, USC, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, and Texas form a new league a start from scratch where all team are viewed critically before being invited in

[HookEm 2509]

I still think FSU is better and draws more eyeballs than the average SEC team, which should mean that it raises the contract incrementally for everyone. 

I actually think UNC is also pretty valuable all things considered.  They are about on the same level as Ole Miss in football... but they are an absolute cream of the crop blue blood in hoops.  And they are a also a top-25 national university.  North Carolina is a populated state that is still geographically congruous to the existing SEC.  Either the BIG or the SEC would be glad to have them.   

Virginia is another interesting one.  They would help the SEC further expand to the Northeast with another flagship university in the 12th most populous state. And they are a top-25 university as well.  Their football program isn't great right now, but their basketball team has won a title recently.  I think they will be one of the more valuable programs in this next round of realignment.

I don't think it is a huge driver, but adding UNC (#22), Virginia (#24), FSU (#53) and even Clemson (#86) to the SEC would be a coup from an academic perspective.  Coupled with the recent Texas add and they will have really helped their academic reputation.

If the ACC even loses FSU, it is going to really hurt their brand.  If they lose their top 4-5 schools, their next contract will be far lower than the Big 12... which means the remaining decent programs will jump.

[Crockett 517]

On 1/18/2024 at 5:34 AM, statsman said:

Joel Klatt predicts Utah to be the B12 champ and rep in the CFP next year. 

 

[oSuJeff97 3439]

On 1/18/2024 at 9:07 AM, Frank Drebin said:

They letting Bowman start again?  If so, I doubt they are winning much.  They had ridiculous luck last year, and I doubt that repeats.

Yeah we hear this literally every year.

Gundy just keeps "lucking" his way into 10-win seasons over and over again.

We basically have our entire team back this coming year plus we get our best WR back (Stribling) who missed basically the entire year.

Unless we have an injury wipeout year like we did in 2022 we'll be around the top of the league again.

Edited January 22 by oSuJeff97

[PvilleStang 2994]

1 hour ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah we hear this literally every year.

Gundy just keeps "lucking" his way into 10-win seasons over and over again.

We basically have our entire team back this coming year plus we get our best WR back (Stribling) who missed basically the entire year.

Unless we have an injury wipeout year like we did in 2022 we'll be around the top of the league again.

Horse shoes and hand grenades.  Around the top vs at the top...

[Vertigo 20498]

2 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Yeah we hear this literally every year.

Gundy just keeps "lucking" his way into 10-win seasons over and over again.

We basically have our entire team back this coming year plus we get our best WR back (Stribling) who missed basically the entire year.

Unless we have an injury wipeout year like we did in 2022 we'll be around the top of the league again.

It is hard for me to envision Ok State winning the B12 with Bowman at QB, but crazier things have happened I guess. 

[CustersDoctor 585]

UA Just let their AD go. 1. He Had an opportunity to lock up their head FB coach or at least put a big buyout on his contract, but he didn't. 2. The athletic department had to borrow fifty million dollars from the university during covid. The athletic department doesn't really have the means to ever pay this back. Arizona like most universities has a loss in enrollment and could really use that fifty million dollars now. 3. The AD was Part of the PAC12 executive committee that A. Turned down  35mill a year media rights offer claiming that they were worth 50mill a year. B. Was A loud voice in the "everything is fine nothing to see here" final days of the PAC12. C. Allowed or didn't notice that the PAC12 office was feeding inflated data to Comcast. D. Didn't have tight enough control over the underperforming PAC12 network. This allowed Larry Scott ro run up huge expenses on Bay Area rental space and then outrageous expenses to move the network offices to a cheaper place.

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/2024/1/22/24047465/arizona-wildcats-athletic-director-dave-heeke-mike-candrea-interim-robert-ribbuns-budget-2024

[TKthunder2 5059]

11 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

UA Just let their AD go. 1. He Had an opportunity to lock up their head FB coach or at least put a big buyout on his contract, but he didn't. 2. The athletic department had to borrow fifty million dollars from the university during covid. The athletic department doesn't really have the means to ever pay this back. Arizona like most universities has a loss in enrollment and could really use that fifty million dollars now. 3. The AD was Part of the PAC12 executive committee that A. Turned down  35mill a year media rights offer claiming that they were worth 50mill a year. B. Was A loud voice in the "everything is fine nothing to see here" final days of the PAC12. C. Allowed or didn't notice that the PAC12 office was feeding inflated data to Comcast. D. Didn't have tight enough control over the underperforming PAC12 network. This allowed Larry Scott ro run up huge expenses on Bay Area rental space and then outrageous expenses to move the network offices to a cheaper place.

https://www.azdesertswarm.com/2024/1/22/24047465/arizona-wildcats-athletic-director-dave-heeke-mike-candrea-interim-robert-ribbuns-budget-2024

I think you’re confusing Arizona with Arizona State in parts of the above. The Arizona president/AD was show me the money, the ASU President/AD was all this is fine.

[Scholz 12309]

[statsman 5693]

4 hours ago, Scholz said:

I am looking fwd to our SEC friends debating our B12 friends over the relative CFP worthiness of three loss SEC teams and two loss B12 teams. 

Edited January 23 by statsman

[Hookem10 876]

I thought the big 12 ran through Lubbock.......Is that not a thing anymore. Im behind 

[thunderlounge 8414]

Lubbock, colon, whatever. 

[Deej 77839]

56 minutes ago, Hookem10 said:

I thought the big 12 ran through Lubbock.......Is that not a thing anymore. Im behind 

The Big 12 runs a train through Lubbock.

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

I was re-watching the big 12 championship game earlier, and it hit me how appropriate the whole WWE thing really was. Two things that were bigger and more relevant 20 years ago. 

[LTbear 4213]

On 1/15/2024 at 10:53 AM, statsman said:

This website seems to attract a lot of fans from other schools. I imagine that, upon starting SEC play, there will be some new visitors. 
 
I look forward to the interaction between the SEC visitors and the Big XII visitors. 

I think it attracts many just because it's a very large forum talking sports. I've hung around previously just because there's a lot of activity.

And the Lulz board is great. 

[thunderlounge 8414]

26 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I think it attracts many just because it's a very large forum talking sports. I've hung around previously just because there's a lot of activity.

And the Lulz board is great. 

Fair point. There’s a lot of great content outside the football, and even the other sports boards. Lots to discover around here. 
 

Add to that the depth of experience across the board, and you really got something. 

[Armybrat 41412]

Don’t forget the titties.

[Loose Stool 112]

11 hours ago, LTbear said:

I think it attracts many just because it's a very large forum talking sports. I've hung around previously just because there's a lot of activity.

And the Lulz board is great. 

Yep, this ^^^^  Some really good discussions on the football board here vs other sites.  Some pretty idiotic things too (which is part of the fun.)

[Armybrat 41412]

54 minutes ago, Loose Stool said:

Yep, this ^^^^  Some really good discussions on the football board here vs other sites.  Some pretty idiotic things too (which is part of the fun.)

Appropriate username 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18963]

I don't know exactly where this goes, but seems relevant here.

 

Also this:

 

I wonder how the Big 10 is going to draw on CBS vs. the old SEC games going forward.

 

Edited January 24 by Mitch Cumsteen

[mdmost 44059]

I think it will be on par as long as the teams on it are Michigan, Ohio State, USC, Washington, Oregon, Penn State, or WIsconsin. The Big 10 watches football. That's why Big Noon did really well all year. I think ABC is going to get a great bump with multiple SEC games on every weekend.