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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


LTtxfan

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I guess if the Big Ten can claim DC and NYC’s TV sets with Maryland and Rutgers, the Big 12 can do the same with U of H. 
 

Even when the team has been really good, there hasn’t been much local attention. Ed Oliver was the last high profile recruit they landed. I just don’t see them as a good value add. 

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On 9/22/2024 at 6:20 PM, mdmost said:

I believe Big Noon Kickoff is going to Colorado UCF even though it's not their Big Noon game. Because Deion.

He's still pulling pretty good numbers for a mid team, including pulling over 3m against Colorado State.   Wonder what it will look like once his son and Hunter are gone.

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On 9/23/2024 at 3:36 PM, billfromlaketravis said:

I guess if the Big Ten can claim DC and NYC’s TV sets with Maryland and Rutgers, the Big 12 can do the same with U of H. 
 

Even when the team has been really good, there hasn’t been much local attention. Ed Oliver was the last high profile recruit they landed. I just don’t see them as a good value add. 

The DMA helps, but success or brand helps more.   The basketball team is paying off.    How the hell is the football team so gawdawful?    I mean if UCF can pull in 4* recruiting classes, after Florida, Florida State, and Miami get their pick, why can't you in Houston?    

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1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

He's still pulling pretty good numbers for a mid team, including pulling over 3m against Colorado State.   Wonder what it will look like once his son and Hunter are gone.

I doubt Deion will stick around after his son and Hunter are gone.

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9 minutes ago, statsman said:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
 
Brett Yormark must absolutely adore Deion Sanders. 
 
Decent ratings for Utah-OSU and KSU-BYU. 
 
Check out ASU-TT, TCU-SMU and UH-Cincy! That’s pretty bad. 
 
 

TCU-SMU was on the ACC’s flagship CW Sports deal for which SMU has foregone any TV revenues.

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9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Really pumped about this.  CBS did the ISU/KU game in Hilton last year, and it was a stunning broadcast.

If some of our ESPN+ content gets farmed out to CBSSN that would be great too.  It's far and away the best broadcast of the "Ocho" layer sports channels.

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11 hours ago, statsman said:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
 
Brett Yormark must absolutely adore Deion Sanders. 
 
Decent ratings for Utah-OSU and KSU-BYU. 
 
Check out ASU-TT, TCU-SMU and UH-Cincy! That’s pretty bad. 
 
 

I’m kind of ignorant on some of this, but I read the Friday night numbers as really strong. Is that wrong? It seems like this could become a pretty big deal with the way Fox is handling it and the numbers following. Hell, the freaking late night game on the CW on Friday drew over 500k. 

Also, is there any way to get data regarding the Texas/ULM stream? I know it was off in the hinterlands of the CFB landscape, but I’m wondering if there was any kind of bump due to Manning’s first start. 

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3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I’m kind of ignorant on some of this, but I read the Friday night numbers as really strong. Is that wrong? It seems like this could become a pretty big deal with the way Fox is handling it and the numbers following. Hell, the freaking late night game on the CW on Friday drew over 500k. 

Also, is there any way to get data regarding the Texas/ULM stream? I know it was off in the hinterlands of the CFB landscape, but I’m wondering if there was any kind of bump due to Manning’s first start. 

I googled for the numbers, wondering the same, and couldn’t find them. 

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36 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I just hope it’s not a bunch of paramount + exclusives. I have espn+ in the Hulu/Disney package and I like it for OSU baseball and softball. I ain’t buying another fucking app especially for basketball, at least until Lutz shows if he can actually turn our shitass program around.

The articles indicate the extra games will be on big CBS and CBSSN.

They want more college hoops and the Big 12 is the best college hoops conference.  They aren't doing this to push content onto an app.

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11 hours ago, statsman said:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
 
Brett Yormark must absolutely adore Deion Sanders. 
 
Decent ratings for Utah-OSU and KSU-BYU. 
 
Check out ASU-TT, TCU-SMU and UH-Cincy! That’s pretty bad. 
 
 

Colorado has stupid numbers, only two teams match them this season: Georgia and ND.  They're still the belle of the ball whether its Prime or whatever.   The B12 has had far more respectable numbers so far than expected overall.   The concern prior to this year was could they pull 2m+ games without Texas or OU in them.   If you remember how they laid them out in previous years, the big slots were always Texas or OU vs someone else, so there weren't a lot of opportunities to tell.  I think what we're seeing is you're not going to see big brand 6m+ games that you see from the Michigan or Texas' of the world, but the two mill plus games are definitely not only achievable, but should be expected often, which should help their revenue numbers going forward.  In realignment I did a quick count of teams in conferences who played in 2m games this season:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/25-realignment-talk-not-going-away/?do=findComment&comment=6485966

Which doesn't copy over well, so here it is again -  Week 4 data, #p4 teams in 2m+ audience games:

  • ND - 3
  • ACC - 7  
  • B1G - 16
  • B12 - 14
  • SEC - 24

Fun Facts:

  • 85% of the ACC's games on this list occurred in weeks 0/1.   The only one after was Tennessee/NCSt
  • Ohio State/Marshal drew 3.96m,  Clemson/NCSt ended up with 1.95m.    Even Florida/MSU drew 2.64m on ESPN in the same slot
  • Fox is winning on Fridays.   Kstate/Arizona drew 2.7m while Ill/Nebraska going to overtime punched up to 4.2m.   I think ESPN only had two 2m+ Friday games for the entire regular season last year (Kstate/OkSt and Colorado/Stanford), Fox has two in their first two outings.   Expect them to market this more.
  • There have been eight 6m+ games so far, all involve the big boys: 
    • Week 1 - Miami/Florida - 6.35m
    • Week 1 - Clemson/Georgia - 7.58m
    • Week 1 - ND/A&M - 7.62M
    • Week 1 - USC/LSU - 8.62m
    • Week 2 - Texas/Michigan - 9.2m
    • Week 3 - Georgia/Kentucky - 6.6m
    • Week 4 - Tenn/OU - 6.27m
    • Week 4 - USC/Michigan - 6.32m

 

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On 9/24/2024 at 5:23 PM, Hurtlocker said:

The DMA helps, but success or brand helps more.   The basketball team is paying off.    How the hell is the football team so gawdawful?    I mean if UCF can pull in 4* recruiting classes, after Florida, Florida State, and Miami get their pick, why can't you in Houston?    

I doubt if UH can come even close to competing with NIL money. Their Alum base is like they are in witness protection. Any money they toss in goes to the BB team....at least thats my guess....

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I just hope it’s not a bunch of paramount + exclusives. I have espn+ in the Hulu/Disney package and I like it for OSU baseball and softball. I ain’t buying another fucking app especially for basketball, at least until Lutz shows if he can actually turn our shitass program around.

This deal isn’t the best… every so often it drops to $30, but this is how I get no commercial paramount +.

Sportsline membership gives you paramount + 

https://www.sportsline.com/join/?irgwc=1&cbsclick=UQv0PpXZrxyPRMbWK%3ARv4U%3AjUkCyP2wtgX4pUo0&vndid=10451&sharedid=&ftag=PPM-09-10aag1f&clickid=10451

 

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2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Cincy-UH drawing 195K viewers sounds high actually, or fairly impressive tbh.

Yeah shit games are still shit games.   And most you don't see because they aren't rated on the streaming or conference channels, besides BTN, but that gives a hint.   The bulk of the games fall in the 50-500k range, that's why they package them on channel that pay per month.

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What could possibly go wrong.

https://www.kcur.org/sports/2024-09-26/72-hours-before-kickoff-ku-has-no-signed-contract-with-the-chiefs-to-play-at-arrowhead-stadium

 

The University of Kansas announced in January that it would play some of its home football games at Arrowhead Stadium. Since that time, KU has been negotiating with the Chiefs and hadn't reached an agreement three days before the game.
 

 

Quote

They’re painting a Jayhawk on the field at Arrowhead Stadium.

University of Kansas Athletics said it plans to be there Friday to prepare the press box for Saturday’s football game against TCU.

KU head coach Lance Leipold is looking forward to playing at the home of the Chiefs.

”Hopefully, (fans) show up, are energetic and can help us when we need them," Leipold said.

Here’s the rub: KU and the Chiefs have yet to sign a contract allowing the Jayhawks to play at Arrowhead

 

Spoiler

“It’s complex,” KU Athletics spokesperson Daniel Berk said.

Berk wouldn’t go into detail about what those complexities are, except to say insurance coverage is one of them.

KU announced on Jan. 30 that it would play its home football games in Kansas City while rebuilding Memorial Stadium in Lawrence for $450 million. The first two were at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas. The rest will be played at Arrowhead.

The day after KU announced the games away from the home field, KCUR filed a Kansas Open Records Request for the contracts.

Before the Jayhawks opened the season against Lindenwood University in August, KU provided the contract with Sporting KC for use if its park.

But week after week in response to follow-up questions, KU kept sending emails from the Custodian of Public Records saying it had “no determinative response to offer you at this time” concerning the Arrowhead contract. Every email ended the same, “Thank you for your attention and patience.”

Then Wednesday, KU sent an email saying “the University of Kansas does not have a final executed agreement” for the games at Arrowhead. It promised to provide the contract as soon as it was signed and reviewed by the university’s lawyers.

Berk said not to worry.

“It’s been six months of complex communications, but we fully expect to have an agreement,” he told KCUR.

However complex the contract with the Chiefs might be, the one with Sporting is brief and simple. The “Letter of Agreement” is only four pages long. KU paid Sporting $100,000 in rent and another $150,000 for game day operations, according to the deal obtained through the open records request.

Sporting KC retained all parking and concession revenue and got 20% of KU merchandise revenue sold at the park. KU was also obligated to reimburse Sporting for “reasonable” and “documented” expenses to repair any damage to the field.

The Chiefs did not return an email seeking comment.

 

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2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Colorado has stupid numbers, only two teams match them this season: Georgia and ND.  They're still the belle of the ball whether its Prime or whatever.   The B12 has had far more respectable numbers so far than expected overall.   The concern prior to this year was could they pull 2m+ games without Texas or OU in them.   If you remember how they laid them out in previous years, the big slots were always Texas or OU vs someone else, so there weren't a lot of opportunities to tell.  I think what we're seeing is you're not going to see big brand 6m+ games that you see from the Michigan or Texas' of the world, but the two mill plus games are definitely not only achievable, but should be expected often, which should help their revenue numbers going forward.  In realignment I did a quick count of teams in conferences who played in 2m games this season:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/25-realignment-talk-not-going-away/?do=findComment&comment=6485966

Which doesn't copy over well, so here it is again -  Week 4 data, #p4 teams in 2m+ audience games:

  • ND - 3
  • ACC - 7  
  • B1G - 16
  • B12 - 14
  • SEC - 24

Fun Facts:

  • 85% of the ACC's games on this list occurred in weeks 0/1.   The only one after was Tennessee/NCSt
  • Ohio State/Marshal drew 3.96m,  Clemson/NCSt ended up with 1.95m.    Even Florida/MSU drew 2.64m on ESPN in the same slot
  • Fox is winning on Fridays.   Kstate/Arizona drew 2.7m while Ill/Nebraska going to overtime punched up to 4.2m.   I think ESPN only had two 2m+ Friday games for the entire regular season last year (Kstate/OkSt and Colorado/Stanford), Fox has two in their first two outings.   Expect them to market this more.
  • There have been eight 6m+ games so far, all involve the big boys: 
    • Week 1 - Miami/Florida - 6.35m
    • Week 1 - Clemson/Georgia - 7.58m
    • Week 1 - ND/A&M - 7.62M
    • Week 1 - USC/LSU - 8.62m
    • Week 2 - Texas/Michigan - 9.2m
    • Week 3 - Georgia/Kentucky - 6.6m
    • Week 4 - Tenn/OU - 6.27m
    • Week 4 - USC/Michigan - 6.32m

 

Colorado is what it is. You can’t derive value out of them long term for Colorado or the Big 12. When BY presents his numbers with the Prime years included in them the first thing the networks will do is strip them out or discard those years altogether because it’s not representative of the value you’re paying for in their new contract. Now if Prime stay and finds the next Travis Hunter and continues to draw 4million viewers against FCS teams and 3 million against G5 teams for years to come then they will count. But for now those just aren’t representative.

After 4 weeks, other than Colorado who accounted for every 3 million+ viewers thus far, the FOX games have driven 5 of the 10 2 million+ games. ABC 1, ESPN 1, CBS 2, NBC 1. Repeating myself but this exposure with FOX is the biggest advantage the Big 12 has. They should be doing everything they can to take advantage of it.

3 rivalry games account for that too placement on NBC/CBS, a matchup with the SEC got them on ABC. The traditional conference games will primarily end up on FOX and ESPN. The Big 12 should continue to pursue more rivalry OOC games. Bedlam, Border War, Backyard Brawl, etc would enhance and boost their profile. If the goal is a bigger TV deal next time around, this is a major opportunity toward that.

Teams with 2million+ games

Colorado: 4
Oklahoma St, Utah, Baylor: 2
ISU, KSU, AZ, WVU: 1

Nothing too shocking other than Baylor in this list (likely just because they played Colorado and Utah but facts are facts)

The “Late” window has been used 5 out of the 6 weeks scheduled and I expect this to be a common theme for the new Big 12 when the 4corner schools play a lack luster game at home. They pull a million or so which is a good way to prop up a below average game with inflated viewership to help the overall picture.

The Big 12 also has had 6 weeknight games (mostly Friday) with another scheduled for next week. Colorado’s kick off game pulled ridiculous numbers, but other than them AZ/KSU on FOX did a respectable 2.5 million while the other averaged about 1.14 million.

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3 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

The articles indicate the extra games will be on big CBS and CBSSN.

They want more college hoops and the Big 12 is the best college hoops conference.  They aren't doing this to push content onto an app.

It looks like all 20 of the newly sublicensed games will be on CBSSN, while the six already agreed to will stay on CBS, at least according to Paramount.

https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/cbs-sports/shows/college-basketball/releases/?view=110338-cbs-sports-and-big-12-expand-partnership-with-multi-year-agreement-for-additional-mens-college-basketball-games

Quote

As part of its extensive regular-season schedule, CBS Sports already broadcasts a minimum of six Big 12 men’s college basketball games annually on CBS, with those games streaming live on Paramount+. This new agreement adds 20 games per year to air on CBS Sports Network to bring the total number of Big 12 men’s basketball games to at least 26 per season across CBS Sports platforms.

 

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6 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It looks like all 20 of the newly sublicensed games will be on CBSSN, while the six already agreed to will stay on CBS, at least according to Paramount.

https://www.paramountpressexpress.com/cbs-sports/shows/college-basketball/releases/?view=110338-cbs-sports-and-big-12-expand-partnership-with-multi-year-agreement-for-additional-mens-college-basketball-games

 

Strongly prefer to it to ESPN+ or U

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16 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Strongly prefer to it to ESPN+ or U

As long as you have cable (or a cable-like streaming serveice), it is probably better.  It looks like CBS Sports Network games are not on Paramount Plus, so if you don't have cable, it looks like you're out of luck.

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2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

As long as you have cable (or a cable-like streaming serveice), it is probably better.  It looks like CBS Sports Network games are not on Paramount Plus, so if you don't have cable, it looks like you're out of luck.

YouTubeTV has it

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3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Colorado is what it is. You can’t derive value out of them long term for Colorado or the Big 12. When BY presents his numbers with the Prime years included in them the first thing the networks will do is strip them out or discard those years altogether because it’s not representative of the value you’re paying for in their new contract. Now if Prime stay and finds the next Travis Hunter and continues to draw 4million viewers against FCS teams and 3 million against G5 teams for years to come then they will count. But for now those just aren’t representative.

After 4 weeks, other than Colorado who accounted for every 3 million+ viewers thus far, the FOX games have driven 5 of the 10 2 million+ games. ABC 1, ESPN 1, CBS 2, NBC 1. Repeating myself but this exposure with FOX is the biggest advantage the Big 12 has. They should be doing everything they can to take advantage of it.

3 rivalry games account for that too placement on NBC/CBS, a matchup with the SEC got them on ABC. The traditional conference games will primarily end up on FOX and ESPN. The Big 12 should continue to pursue more rivalry OOC games. Bedlam, Border War, Backyard Brawl, etc would enhance and boost their profile. If the goal is a bigger TV deal next time around, this is a major opportunity toward that.

Teams with 2million+ games

Colorado: 4
Oklahoma St, Utah, Baylor: 2
ISU, KSU, AZ, WVU: 1

Nothing too shocking other than Baylor in this list (likely just because they played Colorado and Utah but facts are facts)

The “Late” window has been used 5 out of the 6 weeks scheduled and I expect this to be a common theme for the new Big 12 when the 4corner schools play a lack luster game at home. They pull a million or so which is a good way to prop up a below average game with inflated viewership to help the overall picture.

The Big 12 also has had 6 weeknight games (mostly Friday) with another scheduled for next week. Colorado’s kick off game pulled ridiculous numbers, but other than them AZ/KSU on FOX did a respectable 2.5 million while the other averaged about 1.14 million.

That's basically my point.   Prior the argument was they were incapable to pull 2ms on their own because every major slot was Texas or OU vs someone.  Those Fox/ABC slots were always filled by and pulled from the big boys.  Now they have to fill them with someone else and they have to prove they can get 2m+ consistently.   A few will hit 1m, some will hit 3m, but the count is how many 2ms can you rack up.   They don't need every game to be killer, if they can average 1-2 per week, they're golden.    They don't have the properties to get to 6m, that's not their role.   Oregon and Washington and Wisconsin and Clemson and Miami and Ole Miss doesn't get there alone either, they need to play USC or Ohio State or Michigan or Florida or Georgia or Alabama to sniff that, just like the Big 12 teams needed to play Texas or Oklahoma to get there.       And, for them it doesn't matter the time slots, the B12 has to prove is they can produce in the ones they're placed, they're on a 4-year test, be it Friday, late night, Fox, ESPN, whatever.   Through three weeks the numbers show they are capable, sustainable is another thing all together.

And agree, they need to get on the preseason match up wagon, their W1 is terrible.   That's all that's floating the ACC at the moment are a few big games in week 1, the rest is a lot of steamers.   They more they show they can produce the more TV will match them up. 

I think we're talking different things on Colorado.   I never said they could build a contract off them, I said, right now, they're the belle of the Q rating ball.  There is no product in CFB driving more PR and more casual eyeballs for basically nothing, than Colorado, they're out Oregoning Oregon.   I'm not sure if it's totally Prime, like people love to hate various personalities, or if it is the NIL situation, but they are pulling stupid numbers in games they have no reason pulling.   They are pulling numbers against properties the biggest programs aren't even doing.    Sustainable?   No idea. what if Prime does stay for a decade, what if he leaves and they get someone normal, but they average 9.5 wins a year like the early 90s, what if he leaves and they go back to sucksville?  What would it look like if he stayed and they actually won?    Way too many variables.     They are doing something that I can't really find a historic comparison to, but it's not nothing.   They're kind of like the Wrexham of CFB right now and there is no way to guess what 4 years from now will look like.   If you asked me last year, I would have said the bubble already burst, but it hasn't.   Watch FX give them their own show.

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4 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

That's basically my point.   Prior the argument was they were incapable to pull 2ms on their own because every major slot was Texas or OU vs someone.  Those Fox/ABC slots were always filled by and pulled from the big boys.  Now they have to fill them with someone else and they have to prove they can get 2m+ consistently.   A few will hit 1m, some will hit 3m, but the count is how many 2ms can you rack up.   They don't need every game to be killer, if they can average 1-2 per week, they're golden.    They don't have the properties to get to 6m, that's not their role.   Oregon and Washington and Wisconsin and Clemson and Miami and Ole Miss doesn't get there alone either, they need to play USC or Ohio State or Michigan or Florida or Georgia or Alabama to sniff that, just like the Big 12 teams needed to play Texas or Oklahoma to get there.       And, for them it doesn't matter the time slots, the B12 has to prove is they can produce in the ones they're placed, they're on a 4-year test, be it Friday, late night, Fox, ESPN, whatever.   Through three weeks the numbers show they are capable, sustainable is another thing all together.

And agree, they need to get on the preseason match up wagon, their W1 is terrible.   That's all that's floating the ACC at the moment are a few big games in week 1, the rest is a lot of steamers.   They more they show they can produce the more TV will match them up. 

I think we're talking different things on Colorado.   I never said they could build a contract off them, I said, right now, they're the belle of the Q rating ball.  There is no product in CFB driving more PR and more casual eyeballs for basically nothing, than Colorado, they're out Oregoning Oregon.   I'm not sure if it's totally Prime, like people love to hate various personalities, or if it is the NIL situation, but they are pulling stupid numbers in games they have no reason pulling.   They are pulling numbers against properties the biggest programs aren't even doing.    Sustainable?   No idea. what if Prime does stay for a decade, what if he leaves and they get someone normal, but they average 9.5 wins a year like the early 90s, what if he leaves and they go back to sucksville?  What would it look like if he stayed and they actually won?    Way too many variables.     They are doing something that I can't really find a historic comparison to, but it's not nothing.   They're kind of like the Wrexham of CFB right now and there is no way to guess what 4 years from now will look like.   If you asked me last year, I would have said the bubble already burst, but it hasn't.   Watch FX give them their own show.

Great analysis, and it’s too bad the B12 didn’t figure this out years ago. 
 
KSU was the single worst program in America, the one that Mississippi State looked down on. Snyder got there and adopted a strategy of playing nothing but patsies in non-conference. He treated the games like the NFL pre-season (he wanted to polish his team’s proficiencies), but the games counted, so he wanted wins. 
 
In unequal revenue sharing, this wasn’t so bad. TV didn’t want those crappy games and his program didn’t profit financially from them. 
 
Then, every little program in the Big XII adopted that practice, AND they had equal revenue sharing. 
 
Yes, the B12 needs to be like the divorced spouse that addresses all the issues their ex had been bitching about and try better the next time. 

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22 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

That's basically my point.   Prior the argument was they were incapable to pull 2ms on their own because every major slot was Texas or OU vs someone.  Those Fox/ABC slots were always filled by and pulled from the big boys.  Now they have to fill them with someone else and they have to prove they can get 2m+ consistently.   A few will hit 1m, some will hit 3m, but the count is how many 2ms can you rack up.   They don't need every game to be killer, if they can average 1-2 per week, they're golden.    They don't have the properties to get to 6m, that's not their role.   Oregon and Washington and Wisconsin and Clemson and Miami and Ole Miss doesn't get there alone either, they need to play USC or Ohio State or Michigan or Florida or Georgia or Alabama to sniff that, just like the Big 12 teams needed to play Texas or Oklahoma to get there.       And, for them it doesn't matter the time slots, the B12 has to prove is they can produce in the ones they're placed, they're on a 4-year test, be it Friday, late night, Fox, ESPN, whatever.   Through three weeks the numbers show they are capable, sustainable is another thing all together.

And agree, they need to get on the preseason match up wagon, their W1 is terrible.   That's all that's floating the ACC at the moment are a few big games in week 1, the rest is a lot of steamers.   They more they show they can produce the more TV will match them up. 

I think we're talking different things on Colorado.   I never said they could build a contract off them, I said, right now, they're the belle of the Q rating ball.  There is no product in CFB driving more PR and more casual eyeballs for basically nothing, than Colorado, they're out Oregoning Oregon.   I'm not sure if it's totally Prime, like people love to hate various personalities, or if it is the NIL situation, but they are pulling stupid numbers in games they have no reason pulling.   They are pulling numbers against properties the biggest programs aren't even doing.    Sustainable?   No idea. what if Prime does stay for a decade, what if he leaves and they get someone normal, but they average 9.5 wins a year like the early 90s, what if he leaves and they go back to sucksville?  What would it look like if he stayed and they actually won?    Way too many variables.     They are doing something that I can't really find a historic comparison to, but it's not nothing.   They're kind of like the Wrexham of CFB right now and there is no way to guess what 4 years from now will look like.   If you asked me last year, I would have said the bubble already burst, but it hasn't.   Watch FX give them their own show.

We’re not far off, I was mostly using your post as a way to post my own thoughts and musings.

 

I think our only disagreement is around the term second tier. I don’t think the Big12 has any that I would permanently put in that tier with Oregon and Auburn, but on the year to year metric I could make that concession speaking of relative attractiveness of a team in a specific week/season.

Last week Arkansas/Auburn on ESPN had 2.0 million viewers while Utah/Okie St got 2.1 million on OTA FOX. So a ranked undefeated v ranked undefeated over the air match up barely out drew an unranked one loss team v and unranked one loss team on basic cable.

By this metric I feel comfortable enough to say the brands of Aub+Ark > Utah+OkSt when you equailze the scenario/network/etc.

Which then feels odd to say they are both 2nd tier teams.

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5 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

We’re not far off, I was mostly using your post as a way to post my own thoughts and musings.

 

I think our only disagreement is around the term second tier. I don’t think the Big12 has any that I would permanently put in that tier with Oregon and Auburn, but on the year to year metric I could make that concession speaking of relative attractiveness of a team in a specific week/season.

Last week Arkansas/Auburn on ESPN had 2.0 million viewers while Utah/Okie St got 2.1 million on OTA FOX. So a ranked undefeated v ranked undefeated over the air match up barely out drew an unranked one loss team v and unranked one loss team on basic cable.

By this metric I feel comfortable enough to say the brands of Aub+Ark > Utah+OkSt when you equailze the scenario/network/etc.

Which then feels odd to say they are both 2nd tier teams.

Yeah I'm with you, but....they are.    If you're not in that top group, you're second.    Even Auburn needs to play Alabama to pull huge numbers.   They don't pull 4m playing Holy Cross.   The only ones who do that are the ones who run the sport, the top tier.   If you're not in that, you're second.    I think where we're likely crossing hairs is the implication there is a third and forth.   I don't believe there really is.  Its just where in that scatterpoint you are in any given year or do you belong at all.  But the same argument can be made against the seconds in the B1G/SEC that can be made in the the old B12, can you pull the numbers when not playing the big hitters?

To your point above, I'm not sure rankings really matter this time of year, more good games and good fan bases.    We should expect those four teams to draw similar ratings, just like when Arkansas/OkSt played and got 2.8m.   Only real difference, it went to OT, which holds viewers longer, which increases ratings.   More competitive, higher games, will push ratings up a bit.      As the season progresses, record will push it up or down, some because of where they get placed and some because of interest.   And, for sake of argument, ESPN is a T1 property any longer.   or at least a T1a or something.   It pulls very similar numbers to ABC/Fox because of College Gameday, everyone knows there is a game on, and all the post season, including the playoffs, (except for the new games) are on ESPN.   It isn't T2 like the rest of cable.

 

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6 hours ago, statsman said:

Great analysis, and it’s too bad the B12 didn’t figure this out years ago. 
 
KSU was the single worst program in America, the one that Mississippi State looked down on. Snyder got there and adopted a strategy of playing nothing but patsies in non-conference. He treated the games like the NFL pre-season (he wanted to polish his team’s proficiencies), but the games counted, so he wanted wins. 
 
In unequal revenue sharing, this wasn’t so bad. TV didn’t want those crappy games and his program didn’t profit financially from them. 
 
Then, every little program in the Big XII adopted that practice, AND they had equal revenue sharing. 
 
Yes, the B12 needs to be like the divorced spouse that addresses all the issues their ex had been bitching about and try better the next time. 

The B12 isn't the only conference that schedules bitches.   Texas has always scheduled well with 10+ P5 games on the schedule, many other B12 teams did this too.   There are some SEC and ACC programs who still don't get to 10 per year.    I think Miami has 9 and may play one ranked team all year.   Quick spot check...NCState is 9, Auburn is 9, arkansas is 9, etc.

Everyone tries to game the system and get their advantage.   Its who wins the press tour about it.

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1 hour ago, Hurtlocker said:

Yeah I'm with you, but....they are.    If you're not in that top group, you're second.    Even Auburn needs to play Alabama to pull huge numbers.   They don't pull 4m playing Holy Cross.   The only ones who do that are the ones who run the sport, the top tier.   If you're not in that, you're second.    I think where we're likely crossing hairs is the implication there is a third and forth.   I don't believe there really is.  Its just where in that scatterpoint you are in any given year or do you belong at all.  But the same argument can be made against the seconds in the B1G/SEC that can be made in the the old B12, can you pull the numbers when not playing the big hitters?

To your point above, I'm not sure rankings really matter this time of year, more good games and good fan bases.    We should expect those four teams to draw similar ratings, just like when Arkansas/OkSt played and got 2.8m.   Only real difference, it went to OT, which holds viewers longer, which increases ratings.   More competitive, higher games, will push ratings up a bit.      As the season progresses, record will push it up or down, some because of where they get placed and some because of interest.   And, for sake of argument, ESPN is a T1 property any longer.   or at least a T1a or something.   It pulls very similar numbers to ABC/Fox because of College Gameday, everyone knows there is a game on, and all the post season, including the playoffs, (except for the new games) are on ESPN.   It isn't T2 like the rest of cable.

 

Yeah, I respect your takes on here, so we can just agree to disagree.

I doubt see any way shape or form Houston and Cincy are in the same category as Auburn or Oregon. I can buy Okie St and Utah when ranked are about equal to those teams when unranked.

I think you clearly have 3rd (Washington State) and 4th tiers (Sam Houston)

 

I agree ESPN is close but the numbers prove out that it is a step below the OTA channels. It’s the clear tier 2 but to your point there isn’t a close third.

Third is ESPN2, FS1, and now the CW apparently.

Fourth tier would be conference networks, ESPNU, and now apparently truTV.

Not sure how to count streaming since it’s not well tracked or reported.

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7 hours ago, WBT said:

 Not anymore.  Thanks secsecsec!

Texas isn’t the only team pushing for 9 conference games and you have to assume that wins out. 

That will put Texas back to 10 P4 games because they’re going to continue to schedule a tough non-con. 

Supposedly, the one thing Texas really is pushing is ending the FCS bullshit. The networks aren’t fans of those games either. ULM and Kent State aren’t big ratings draws, but they absolutely outperform nonsense like playing Mercer or Furman. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
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8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yeah, I respect your takes on here, so we can just agree to disagree.

I doubt see any way shape or form Houston and Cincy are in the same category as Auburn or Oregon. I can buy Okie St and Utah when ranked are about equal to those teams when unranked.

I think you clearly have 3rd (Washington State) and 4th tiers (Sam Houston)

 

I agree ESPN is close but the numbers prove out that it is a step below the OTA channels. It’s the clear tier 2 but to your point there isn’t a close third.

Third is ESPN2, FS1, and now the CW apparently.

Fourth tier would be conference networks, ESPNU, and now apparently truTV.

Not sure how to count streaming since it’s not well tracked or reported.

Well Washington State and Sam Houston are not P4 anymore and I'd conceed to you that Houston and Cinci have more to earn than Oregon and Auburn have to lose.   However, the original point someone made was that if you're not in the top 12 or 14 I think we mapped out, you're basically still just the B12 or ACC, just in a different blazer.    And, media wise, that does tend to play out.   We could argue attendance and stadiums and sure, there are clear differences regionally on who cares about their sport.   It's obvious that some programs fill their stadiums and some don't.   And its obvious that some fill them to 50-60 and some fill them to 70-80.  That isn't really where I was getting at with this though, which is, after the giant brands that always bring big numbers, what's left?

What's left tends to be defined by fan passion, record, and who you play.   The knock against the Big 12 was they only drew big when they played Texas and Oklahoma, but, at the same time, their flagship slots were always filled by Texas and Oklahoma, so where was the data supposed to come from?    The same argument holds true with any conference though.   Auburn draws like shit, unless it plays someone big.    Does the stadium rock.   Fuck ya.   But if Auburn was bigger than B12/ACC caliber, that Arkansas game would have hit much higher than 2m.  Florida, who can't win a fight against a box full of kittens, drew 2.6m against Mississippi State on ESPN.

Looking at the top 25 games of last year, Auburn appeared once.    The Iron Bowl.    Oregon appeared twice, their top game was against Colorado in the regular season (so who pulled that interest, Nike or Prime?) and the second game was the Pac12 champ game against Washington, which is kind of free money.    Colorado appeared five times for fuck all knows why reasons, against Oregon, Colorado State, Nebraska, TCU, and USC, so it could be argued Colorado was the top media dog in the Duck's match up that elevated the numbers.

Last year representation in top 25 games, (this includes post season - all games over 7m):

  • Six: Alabama
  • Five:  Michigan, Colorado
  • Four: Ohio State, Texas
  • Demarcation line
  • Three: Penn State (Ohio State, Michigan and the Peach Bowl against Ole Miss), Washington (all were in the post season)
  • Two: Oregon (Colorado and the Pac12 Champ game), FSU (both were against SEC foes), LSU, Georgia  (Both of Georgia and LSU's big games were against FSU and Alabama)
  • One: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Missouri, Nebraska, USC, Colorado State, Iowa, Auburn, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Ole Miss (all of these games were against someone above them in this list)
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