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Rockets vs Warriors

UDontKnow

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Scraps
Scraps

Rockets in 2 1/2

ChickenSandwich
ChickenSandwich

Man. Watching PJ from a freshman animal undersized college post to an undersized NBA monster who wins playoff games is just something fucking else. Dusty in here. Hookem PJ, you beautiful son of a bit

Jebus
Jebus

I didn’t see, is draymond not playing or what?

Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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Posted (edited)

Zach Lowe's preview article on the series and things (a lot of things) to look for and watch..... 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23476103/zach-lowe-houston-rockets-vs-golden-state-warriors-nba-playoffs

Got some great stuff....

Some snippets:

Quote

But ever since David Thorpe suggested it on my podcast Friday, I have come around to it as an interesting tactic -- in small doses: remove the ball from Harden and Paul, and force Houston's screeners to make plays.

Some of those screeners -- Tucker especially -- are pretty good at that. Capela has improved, but not to the point where he scares you catching the ball 20 feet out. And in at least some alignments, the spot-up guys flanking them will be slightly above-average 3-point shooters -- not elite marksmen. Fly at Ariza, Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute, and they will miss a decent chunk.

That is one of the most basic swing factors: Whose blah 3-point shooters make more? Houston will leave Iguodala and Green open. Golden State will do the same with the above Rockets, though perhaps not as blatantly.

I definitely agree with him.  The Warriors need someone from the bench to provide some scoring from outside, who's that going to be???  Iggy?  Cook?  Swaggy P?  They waived Cassipi. 

Quote

Related: I can't wait to see how daring Houston is playing its best shooting lineups. The Rockets are impossible to guard with all three of Paul, Harden, and Eric Gordon on the floor. But Houston sacrifices a little defense to pump up its long-range shooting. Do they even dare play Gerald Green against an offense that will force him to make a half-dozen quick-hitting decisions on every possession? (Ryan Anderson has been excised precisely because he has such a hard time in this matchup. They might dust him off if they get desperate for scoring, but otherwise I'd be surprised to see much of him.) Do they try Ariza at power forward?

They should absolutely dial up the shooting quotient when two of Golden State's stars are on the bench. But against the Warriors' best lineups, Houston might need at least two of Ariza, Mbah a Moute, and Tucker. They might need all three, and they have outscored opponents by a preposterous 25 points per 100 possessions in 222 minutes with that trio, per NBA.com. Interestingly, only 15 of those minutes also featured both Paul and Harden.

That lineup -- Paul, Harden, Ariza, Mbah a Moute, Tucker -- could work, and I'd wager the Rockets use it. Paul and Harden bring enough star power to compensate for the so-so shooting. Still: Any other lineup featuring those three wing stoppers will have trouble scoring against Golden State.

This is interesting and I've thought about.  How do the Rockets matchup with the Hampton 5?  Most think Capela, Paul, Harden, Tucker and Ariza but is that enough defense?  I also think the Warriors would be wise to pick until they can get a mismatch on Capela on the perimeter and go right at him.  He's very young and sometimes will get in foul trouble.

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A related battleground: turnovers. Houston has coughed it up on only 9.8 percent of its possessions in the playoffs, a comically low number that would shatter the all-time single-season record. That is one benefit of slowing down and playing isolation basketball: It's hard to turn it over when you don't pass. If that number stays in the same ballpark, the Rockets increase their chances. Ditto if the Warriors suffer too many bouts of the sort of arrogant sloppiness that has occasionally undone them

The turnover battle has to be won by Houston.....

Quote

It will be tempting for Houston to slow the pace, wait for all of Golden State's switching to produce a mismatch, and attack it. Turning the series into a rock fight might even represent its best chance.

But the Rockets have to be careful taking that strategy to an extreme. Harden has a tendency to indulge in dance-offs against wing defenders who don't even constitute any sort of mismatch, and laze into step-back 3s. That has been a good shot for him -- maybe the defining shot of his (likely) MVP season. He will make some.

I doubt he makes enough against Golden State's most capable defenders. Houston will not win this series if Harden falls into the trap of launching too many semi-contested step-backs. It saps Houston's offense of its rhythm. He needs to drive more -- to use his one-on-one game to either get to the rim, or unlock easier shots for teammates.

This is huge..... Harden has to be aggressive and push the action to the rim and not settle for too many step back 3's.  Yea, if he's shooting well, he'll make a ton but over a series it'll be hard for him to shoot well enough to win this series.  He has to take the ball to the rim.... over and over and over.

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With Durant, the Warriors are equipped to play the slower, mismatch-preying game Houston prefers. They ran the Curry-Durant pick-and-roll more in the last few games against New Orleans, and switching against that usually leaves a smaller defender -- Paul at times -- on Durant. Paul has a knack for burrowing under taller players, and chopping them down. That isn't enough against one of the purest scorers in history.

Houston might be able to slide Paul someplace else, and guard the Curry-Durant combo with two of the Ariza/Tucker/Mbah a Moute trio -- meaning they could switch without losing much size on Durant. But again: Rigging the matchups that way won't be easy.

Houston will have to be very careful shading help toward Durant in the post. Slough away from Green, and he pops up to screen for Curry, Thompson, or some other shooter. With Green's man away from the action, that shooter is wide open if Green's pick connects. The Warriors burned New Orleans with this action over and over.

Finally, how do you slow down Durant?  He's not shooting particularly well from deep but his post up game has come so far.... Can Tucker or Paul get underneath him enough to push him past where he wants to get.  Do you try and double him at the foul line extended?  Do you attack and trap him on the high PNR?  It'll be a chess match...

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6072

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I think you double Durant and play close or deny curry and Thompson as best you can and make draymond score 30+ a night to beat you. On paper it’s why the warriors seem impossible to beat because any game plan you draw up there is a counter that does beat you. Gonna be tough for Houston to win 4 games.

Houston has to exploit there weakness in the middle with capela and get help from guys like Gordon and ariza and tucker hitting open shots. I think you know harden and cp3 will score and if they don’t then you really have to have Gordon go off as he is really the only other scorer Houston has that has the potential to score 25+ consistently. Ariza can if he is hitting threes but his drop off is too big to hope he can for multiple games.

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Jhawk

Jhawk 1075

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I want the rockets to take this but I don’t think they will for a couple of reasons. 

1. I believe we have seen the best out of the rockets this year. I don’t believe we have seen the best out of the warriors. 

2. The warriors have 3-4 guys that are known to step up and win big games and make big plays. The rockets have harden who has that potential and the have Chris Paul who doesn’t show that ability in the playoffs and has actually been on the other end of the spectrum in choking away series. 

I think that regardless of the strategy and regardless of it being a seven game series or a sweep that these two factors are the only ones that matter from a macro level. I hope I am wrong. 

Edited by Jhawk
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LebongJames

LebongJames 1791

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1 hour ago, Jhawk said:

I want the rockets to take this but I don’t think they will for a couple of reasons. 

1. I believe we have seen the best out of the rockets this year. I don’t believe we have seen the best out of the warriors. 

2. The warriors have 3-4 guys that are known to step up and win big games and make big plays. The rockets have harden who has that potential and the have Chris Paul who doesn’t show that ability in the playoffs and has actually been on the other end of the spectrum in choking away series. 

I think that regardless of the strategy and regardless of it being a seven game series or a sweep that these two factors are the only ones that matter from a macro level. I hope I am wrong. 

That narrative is weak. CP3 has been money all postseason. The Warriors are great team but Chris Paul chocking away series is extremely overrated. He was in the same situation as Harden with not much talent around him and it is extremely tough to win like that.

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aggie08

aggie08 21491

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Yeah, CP3 doesn't have as many playoff skeletons as Harden. He had 10 terrible seconds against OKC where he got too cute and tried to outsmart the game, and one mediocre Game 7 against Houston where he was unable to stop the bleeding after Josh Smith's Game 6 anomaly. Other than that, he's just been on a lot of injured teams that probably weren't good enough even if they were healthy. In Houston, he finally has teammates who actually like him (and he seems to have chilled from his no nonsense older brother persona), and who are talented enough to win 

I'd put money on him having a monster series. He's pretty widely acknowledged at the top of the list of players who were/are envious/resentful of Steph's quick rise to fame. He had the "Best Point Guard of His Generation" title in his sights until Steph blew past him. I'm sure he views this series as a chance to change the narrative and rewrite history.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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Chris Paul is 2nd in AST% all-time in the playoffs.  He's top 5 in STL%, PER, ORtg, and WS/48 all-time in the playoffs..... in history, not active players. 

He averages 21.2 PPG, 9.1 APG, 4.8 RPG,  and 2.2 STPG on 48.5/38.0/84.9 shooting percentages.  It's ridiculously stupid to think he doesn't bring it in the playoffs.  He had one really bad individual moment and a couple of moments where it didn't go his way.  Basically every player who's played enough playoff basketball has had moments similar including KD, Lebron, and Steph.  If history is any indicator, he's going to play well in this series.  Really well.... Frankly, I'd be more worried about Harden and I'm operating under the assumption most of the stars play well in most of the games (I'm sure some will have bad games) and figure out ways to contribute so the stars should shine at different times.

We've also spent a ton of time talking about defense and how each team may defend but I also don't think either team will shut the other one down for any long stretch of time.  Defense becomes very important in the half court and typically in the last 5 minutes of halves, but these teams are gonna score.... probably a lot.  Pace will be interesting to watch.  Who wants to run???  When and how.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29346

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5 hours ago, Jhawk said:

The rockets have harden who has that potential and the have Chris Paul who doesn’t show that ability in the playoffs and has actually been on the other end of the spectrum in choking away series. 

This is so hilariously stupid considering what Paul did in his most recent playoff game.

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Chapo

Chapo 104

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2 hours ago, immortal13 said:

That's still 42%

Something gotta give,  you let an inconsistent 3pt shooter Crowder shoot rather than Jingles everyday. 

BTW, Scott Foster and Tony Brothers are reffing tonight so you know its going to a be clusterF

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Sidney Sherman

Sidney Sherman 66

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2 hours ago, immortal13 said:

That's still 42%

Yeah but watching the games, those last 3 games Crowder was KILLING them with those wide open transition 3s bricking. A dude like that is more effective taking up a body inside, getting easy buckets near the rim when his man has to help and getting offensive rebounds. 

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Slacks

Slacks 6819

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fuck it, Warriors are going to win the series in 3 games, winning each game by 37 or more. I'm not even going to turn the TV on.

CP3? Trash. can't dribble.
Harden? Choke Trash. can't shoot. can't dribble. can't play defense.
Capela? only catches lobs. Garbage
PJ Tucker is ok.
Ariza - loser. never won anything.
Ryan Anderson - wishes he was Kevin Love
Eric Gordon - won't be healthy
Luc Mbah a Moute - I can't even pronounce
Geral Green - fake. doesn't really love Houston or basketball.
Mike D'Antoni can't hold Eric Spoelstra's nuts.

game 1 will be 47-99 GSW. mark it down.

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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4930

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I hate to say it, but if we are making predictions, I'll go with Warriors in 6.  The Rockets need to win both Games 1 and 2 to have a legitimate shot, and I've been too scarred by inexplicable meltdowns by Harden to believe he'll be at an MVP level all series.  We are a totally different team with CP3, Tucker and LMM, and have a much better shot than any other previous iterations of a Harden-led Rockets team, so I look forward to being proved totally wrong if our guys really come to play.  

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3911

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IMO, this game is much much bigger for Houston and I'm going to guess if they are going to take the series, they almost must win the opener.  They're at home.  They have many more questions surrounding them than the Warriors and giving up home court the first night out would simply amplify those skeptics.  But moreso and I realize this ain't exactly a sufficient sample size, but every dynasty I can think of had their end come to a team that won the opener, especially if the vanquisher was at home.  Spurs over Heat.  Pistons over Lakers.  Chicago over Detroit.  Detroit over Lakers.  Detroit over Boston.  Even pseudo dynasties or runs like when Dallas motor boated Kobe's Lakers or the Nets (The fuckin' Nets?) shocked Dr. J and Moses' Sixers.  I'm fairly sure every series started with an opening win by the challenger. 

It makes some sense contextually, a lot of the time, the Dynasty team is getting by on guile and experience and simply run into a better team who's time had come.  But it also seems to announce to those involved, that history may be changing.  Now I'm sure someone can find a series where this isn't true and I didn't count the Bulls as MJ retired both times their runs ended nor the Spurs who simply had sustained excellence for 15 years.  Just something I had given thought to..... Houston needs game 1 much more.... especially at home.

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Vic Mackey

Vic Mackey 47012

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24 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

IMO, this game is much much bigger for Houston and I'm going to guess if they are going to take the series, they almost must win the opener.  They're at home.  They have many more questions surrounding them than the Warriors and giving up home court the first night out would simply amplify those skeptics.  But moreso and I realize this ain't exactly a sufficient sample size, but every dynasty I can think of had their end come to a team that won the opener, especially if the vanquisher was at home.  Spurs over Heat.  Pistons over Lakers.  Chicago over Detroit.  Detroit over Lakers.  Detroit over Boston.  Even pseudo dynasties or runs like when Dallas motor boated Kobe's Lakers or the Nets (The fuckin' Nets?) shocked Dr. J and Moses' Sixers.  I'm fairly sure every series started with an opening win by the challenger. 

It makes some sense contextually, a lot of the time, the Dynasty team is getting by on guile and experience and simply run into a better team who's time had come.  But it also seems to announce to those involved, that history may be changing.  Now I'm sure someone can find a series where this isn't true and I didn't count the Bulls as MJ retired both times their runs ended nor the Spurs who simply had sustained excellence for 15 years.  Just something I had given thought to..... Houston needs game 1 much more.... especially at home.

I pretty much said the same thing but you went into more depth. Houston really needs to be up 2-0 going to Oakland if they want to win this series in my eyes. 

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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Quote

Bad Cop: THE ROCKETS COULDN’T BEAT THE WARRIORS IF STEPH SAT OUT THIS WHOLE SERIES.

Good Cop: Come on.

Bad Cop: Sorry. It’s the truth.

Good Cop: You can’t just say, “Sorry. It’s the truth,” and think that’s good enough to make your statement actually a truth. That’s not how this works.

Bad Cop: It’s how arguing on the internet works. And besides, what does Steph Curry’s past injury matter anyway? He’s healthy now. All of Golden State’s main pieces are healthy and ready. And here’s a delicious thing that the equally delicious Zach Lowe pointed out in a recent article: The Warriors have played 27 playoff games since adding Kevin Durant to their roster. Do you know how many of those they’ve lost? Three of them. ONLY THREE TIMES IN 27 GAMES. But you think the Rockets are somehow going to beat them four times in, at most, seven games? Do you hear how dumb that sounds?

My CLE/HOU parlay bet wants to believe, but it's hard to disagree with Serrano here. If that $250 pays off, I'll feel really smart about it but more than likely I'm throwing money away. Fuck it. Great read btw.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/5/14/17350858/houston-rockets-golden-state-warriors-western-conference-finals-good-cop-bad-cop

Edited by Gourmand
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Rockethorn1978

Rockethorn1978 6072

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Why is a game in Houston starting at fucking 8pm? Why not 7? Easy coast is waiting till 9pm to watch a game? Not sure why they think 8 is better than 7. 3 time zones would be fine but let’s revolve the entire world around the west coast time zone. 

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elfenix

elfenix 34223

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Posted

No rain in the forecast so no repeat of tax day and memorial day floods, both of which happened on Rockets-Warriors game days.

 

 

 

Why is a game in Houston starting at fucking 8pm? Why not 7? Easy coast is waiting till 9pm to watch a game? Not sure why they think 8 is better than 7. 3 time zones would be fine but let’s revolve the entire world around the west coast time zone. 

How many people in eastern time would watch if it started at 8 locally but not 9 locally? I'm guessing that's a small figure. Local news doesn't even air until 11 eastern.

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11134

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17 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Why is a game in Houston starting at fucking 8pm? Why not 7? Easy coast is waiting till 9pm to watch a game? Not sure why they think 8 is better than 7. 3 time zones would be fine but let’s revolve the entire world around the west coast time zone. 

Probably because the other team is west coast, and they want people in California to be off work by the time tipoff starts. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10508

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Posted
Well yea I know that. It’s what I said. Why does the entire country revolve around them? At Golden st then fine I get it. At houston it should be 7. Baseball adjusts accordingly to who the home team is, nba should as well. 

Such a stupid complaint. How much would you be bitching if the game started at 5 o’clock? The east coast is used to west coast games starting after 9:30.
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