Program Ranks - Last 25 Years

[HookEm 2445]

To add color to the realignment talks I thought it would be a good idea to quantify the performance of all the Division 1 teams over the last 25 years - with more weight put on the recent years.  I took the Massey rating for each team and year since 1996 and gave them a recency multiplier and summed them up.  The multiplier is 1x for 1996 and 2x for 2021 with every year in between scaled linearly.

Here are the results.  Big-12 schools are highlighted in yellow.  Big 12 defectors are colored in blue and red.

A couple of thoughts... 

First, the Big-12 has actually been pretty good on the field.  Seven top-35 schools is tied with the PAC-10 for most of any conference.  The SEC without us only has six.  Now granted they also have 4 of the top-7 so they are very good at the top.  Big-10 has 6.  ACC has 4.  

Conference averages are as follows:

• SEC      - 24.9 / 27.6 with / without us
• BIG-12  - 33.6 / 40.4 with / without us
• PAC-12 - 32.1
• BIG-10  - 38.3 
• ACC      - 41.9  

Thus, any team ranked above the average would improve the conference while any below would dilute it.  (Obviously past results are no guarantee of future performance.)

Let me know if anyone wants to see the data cut in other ways and I'll throw it together. 

[ztejas 43266]

Interesting list. You could probably put a more comprehensive picture together by giving a ton of weight to national titles, BCS appearances and wins, NY6 wins and CFP appearances and wins and the like. 

Decent one stop methodology, though. 

[CooterBrown 17914]

Clemson is probably too low and Georgia, who has never won dick, is way too high.

[HookEm 2445]

I figured a computer rank would remove some of the bias that you get in bowl wins, AP ranks, etc.  Not perfect of course, but directionally correct.

[ztejas 43266]

3 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I figured a computer rank would remove some of the bias that you get in bowl wins, AP ranks, etc.  Not perfect of course, but directionally correct.

Your list gives a good picture of consistency. Like @CooterBrown pointed out it misses the mark a bit on giving teams credit for the ultimate accomplishment. 

I'd rather be Texas than Georgia or Oregon 10 times out of 10 in the past 25 seasons - even with our decade of eating paste and wandering around an abandoned strip mall.

[HookEm 2445]

Also, while people will focus on the top of the list, I think it will be much more interesting to look at where we might make the cut if we go to 64, 72 or 80 teams and 4 mega-conferences.  If the PAC-12 passes on Tech, Okie State, K-State and TCU they are going to go somewhere else and they might get stuck with teams like Navy, Houston, Fresno St and Colorado State.

[HookEm 2445]

Funny enough... the #1 team for standard deviation is Texas Tech.