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Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread

texifornia

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Zhorn96

Zhorn96 1773

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16 hours ago, texifornia said:

He's Tongan and was going for that celebratory lei thing, but I am stumped as to how the Shanahans ended up there.

My granddad had 2 brothers who settled in Hawaii and married local girls.  There is now a sizable population of huge Polys on the islands with my very Anglo last name

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Elmer_Fudd
Elmer_Fudd

Haven't seen this posted.  Saw it on the rant, anybody hear/see this?  

D3zii
D3zii

Congrats to all Teams 

closetojumping
closetojumping

To be clear, USC did make a run at CDC. Liucci probably heard that from the USC side and ran with it, trying to make it a story. Problem is, Liucci doesn't understand critical differences between ATM

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Wishbone

Wishbone 4759

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They’re cult garbage with no fucking clue.. Always have been and always will be. Maintaining the cult is all that matters as it allows them to exist with false hope ingrained as a narrative of unrewarded greatness and recognition they have been denied from outside corrupt influences designed to keep them down. To inject reality and self awareness is akin to non-existence in that fucked up world they live in. That is why you will never see them embrace any culture change or entertain the thought of such a thing.

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Alphie Solomons.

Alphie Solomons. 231

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On 2/6/2023 at 8:30 PM, TheRealRonWeaver? said:

Co-op doesn't sell ascots, as far as I know. Just sayin'.

 

On 2/6/2023 at 8:48 PM, Hank Chinaski said:

Not yet.

Zactly what I thought when I read this.   I need to keep up with this thread more currently.     

Need to work on the Athenian Decline's spot quizzes that can be handed out, laminated like Jimbo's play charts. 

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CurlyDumps

CurlyDumps 4468

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21 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

I’ve always thought some psychology student needs to do their dissertation just analyzing TexAgs for the litany of conditions at play in one spot. Could be a truly groundbreaking study. 
 

Either that, or being exposed to that much pure, uncut idiocy will completely break them a la Heath Ledger playing the Joker. 

We've seen the latter first hand. He developed (or exacerbated) his own mental illness, returned to our boards with a fake story about a bet he made with his buddy, and composed alarmingly verbose posts that, when ordered sequentially, probably resemble the Unabomber's manifesto.

Then vanished, never to be heard from again.

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 17781

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3 minutes ago, CurlyDumps said:

We've seen the latter first hand. He developed (or exacerbated) his own mental illness, returned to our boards with a fake story about a bet he made with his buddy, and composed alarmingly verbose posts that, when ordered sequentially, probably resemble the Unabomber's manifesto.

Then vanished, never to be heard from again.

Randolph?

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20276

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2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Well yeah, you have a starting lineup, tiny freshman class, and.... that's it. Luckily injuries are really rare in football.

Every year in fall camp, there is at least 1 front line starter who gets a significant injury on almost every team once full contact practices start. See Neyor, Isaiah.. If aggy has 1 or two guys go down for the year, they are going to be super fucked. 

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nnm

nnm 36354

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2 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Well yeah, you have a starting lineup, tiny freshman class, and.... that's it. Luckily injuries are really rare in football.

The injuries will happen.  My prediction for Bilbo, Looch, and texags’ wrap-up of the 2023-24 season will be: “if not for a historically rate of injuries at key positions, aggy would have won the SECW and the CFP.  Just amazing bad luck.”

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15289

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9 minutes ago, nnm said:

The injuries will happen.  My prediction for Bilbo, Looch, and texags’ wrap-up of the 2023-24 season will be: “if not for a historically rate of injuries at key positions, aggy would have won the SECW and the CFP.  Just amazing bad luck.”

They seem to happen more with younger players not fully developed and thrown into games before they are ready - basically the ag potential success formula.

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nnm

nnm 36354

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7 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I did just confirm he did log in on Jan 29, so he's not dead as of a little over a week ago

Someone logged in using his account. That’s a normal function for an executor of an estate these days. 

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Droopy

Droopy 2626

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On 2/6/2023 at 5:20 PM, Dbeasy said:

These screen shots are an amazing mix of paranoia, an inferiority complex, delusion, conspiracy theories, and hatred, all fueled by their stupidity and inability to separate truth from propaganda by people paid to lie to them. It’s remarkable. 

This is probably the most clear, succinct explanation of the aggy hive mind and their inability to change or evolve. It never deviates.

 

On 2/6/2023 at 6:33 PM, kwood4408 said:


Funny part is they fit in way less than we do. I have been too and worked with people in almost every SEC town and for the most part they are way more similar to Texas fans than aggy.

That's because aggy is that weird cousin that you go to talk to at a reunion/family get together, wherein you can't remember why everyone else talks bad about them or tells you to avoid, until 5 mins into a conversation with them. Then you get it.

Aggys/Vegans/Crossfitters - They HAVE TO find a way to talk about themselves. The conversation always leads back to them and their thing.

 

14 hours ago, Wishbone said:

They’re cult garbage with no fucking clue.. Always have been and always will be. Maintaining the cult is all that matters as it allows them to exist with false hope ingrained as a narrative of unrewarded greatness and recognition they have been denied from outside corrupt influences designed to keep them down. To inject reality and self awareness is akin to non-existence in that fucked up world they live in. That is why you will never see them embrace any culture change or entertain the thought of such a thing.

Classic external locus of control. It's not my fault, it's everything else, outside of me, that is the problem. Sound familiar?

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NoName

NoName 16351

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5 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

 

 

t25:

X5AwRbwg.jpg

 

underlying data:
 

Spoiler

Here's the current weighting for determining the offensive percentages above:

Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 24% of the overall number

Percent of returning QB passing yards: 23%

Percent of returning OL snaps: 47%

Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6%

Broken out by position/player, you're looking at roughly 29% for the quarterback, 6% for the running back and each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends and 9% for each offensive lineman. With each year of data, offensive line snaps become a heavier piece of the equation, which I find interesting.

(Note: Since Sam Houston and Jacksonville State played at the FCS level in 2022, I didn't have full snap-count data for them. I used player starts as a decent if not quite sufficient substitute.)

It's a bit trickier on defense, where units aren't as strictly defined and the percentage of returning production is derived both from position units and types of stats (tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, passes defensed). Here's the approximate layout:

Percent of returning tackles: 70%

Percent of returning passes defensed: 14%

Percent of returning tackles for loss: 12%

Percent of returning sacks: 4%

Perhaps surprisingly, turnover in the back of the defense causes far more of a shift in a team's SP+ rating from year to year than turnover up front. By position, defensive backs make up about 46% of the defensive formula, while linebackers are at 40% and the defensive line is at 14%.

(Remember: This is not based on my personal opinion of positional importance -- it's all about what impacts the numbers the most. On average, teams can evidently overcome turnover upfront more easily than turnover in the back.)

How SP+ accounts for transfers

With the recent explosion in use of the transfer portal, I have had to make a couple of changes to the way transfers are accounted for in the SP+ projections. They now show up in both the returning production and recruiting portions referenced above.

 

Returning production: Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else, that dampens the overall blow of your QB leaving significantly.

 

(Because the translation from lower levels to upper is extremely inconsistent, I don't do this for players transferring up from the FCS or Division II. I would like to get to a point where I can make adjustments to players' stats as they move from level to level, but I'm not there yet.)

Recruiting: As of 2022, I began attempting to account for incoming transfers' recruiting rankings in a team's recruiting averages. It was pure guesswork last year because we simply hadn't experienced anything like USC bringing in 18 transfers, including the reigning Biletnikoff winner and a Heisman-favorite quarterback, before. We still have only one year of mega-transfer data to work with, but I've been able to make some decent tweaks based on said year.

Obviously the portal never stops portaling, so it should be noted that the data above was derived according to players' status in the portal as of Monday morning, Feb. 6.

What these numbers mean for your team

I have been collecting returning production data since 2014. Not including the 2021 season -- because the glut of returnees following the pandemic-shortened season produced averages far higher than usual (and teams therefore didn't benefit as much from high returning production totals) -- about 5% of teams return at least 80% of overall production each year based on the current formula. For a 133-team FBS, that's equivalent to about seven teams. Six currently top that mark.

On average, teams returning at least 80% of production improve by about 5.8 adjusted points per game in the following season's SP+ ratings. That's a pretty significant bump! For a team ranked 25th in SP+ last year, adding 5.8 points to its rating would have bumped it to 10th. And in the past two seasons that weren't majorly impacted by a pandemic (2019 and 2022), the average improvement for teams at 80% or higher is 6.8 points.

On the other end, about 10% of teams (roughly 14 per season) return less than 50% of their production in a given season. That results in an average drop of about 6.0 adjusted points in SP+. For a team that was 10th last year, losing 6.0 points would drop it to 28th. And for the rare team that returns less than 40% of production, the outlook is generally dire: Only about 2% of teams fall under 40%, but they fall by an average of 11.3 points. Wyoming (34%), Hawai'i (31%) and Nevada (22%) were all on the terribly low end of the scale last season, and they fell by a massive average of 17.4 points.

There are no guarantees here, of course. Returning 87% of its production didn't stop BYU from underachieving in 2022, and returning just 33% didn't prevent Ohio State from improving slightly in 2016. But there's significant reason for optimism or pessimism if your team is at one extreme or the other in the table above. That's great news if you're a Florida State fan ... and pretty terrible news if you root for Kent State.

A&M Text:
 

Quote

 

Texas A&M (35th in SP+ in 2022, seventh in returning production in 2023)
You've probably seen a lot about the attrition Jimbo Fisher is battling this offseason in College Station. The Aggies have placed nearly 30 players in the transfer portal, many of whom were recent star recruits. That could hurt down the line, but they don't lose many players who were impactful in 2022.

A team that was painfully young and offensively disorganized last fall will be a lot more experienced this time around. And if new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino is able to build some quick traction, a turnaround could be forthcoming.

 

Texas:

Quote

Texas (seventh in SP+ in 2022, 19th in returning production in 2023)
One good thing about the Florida State hype: It might distract us from the Texas hype! The Longhorns went just 8-5 in 2022, but they wooed virtually every computer ranking with a combination of close losses (their five defeats were all by a touchdown or less) and random displays of brilliance (they beat five bowl teams by an average of 43-18 and won at Big 12 champ Kansas State). Game management might still be an issue in 2023, but experience won't be: They lose star back Bijan Robinson but return virtually everyone else on offense, including quarterback Quinn Ewers. A majority of the defense is back, too.

Alabama and TCU:
 

Quote

 

Alabama (fifth in ESPN Way-Too-Early 2023 rankings, 125th in returning production)
I'm not going to pretend to be all that worried about Nick Saban. He's still only two seasons removed from fielding his best-ever team (the 2020 rendition), and while Georgia has clearly surpassed the Crimson Tide for now, the Tide still finished second in SP+ in each of the past two seasons.

That said, Saban is going to be dealing with quite a bit more change than usual in 2023. (And he's used to dealing with a lot!) Not only will he have two new coordinators, but he'll also be looking to replace starting quarterback Bryce Young, leading rusher (and No. 3 receiver) Jahmyr Gibbs, most of the offensive line's two-deep and about half of 2022's defensive regulars.

Saban's recruiting success is not even slightly waning, and most of the open on-field roles will be filled by recent blue-chippers who might quickly thrive. But this is a particularly stout amount of turnover, and there's a chance the Tide start 2023 as low as, gasp, third or fourth in SP+.

2628.png&h=60&w=60TCU (12th in ESPN Way-Too-Early 2023 rankings, 118th in returning production)
How low can a team be projected one year after reaching the national title game? We might find out in 2023. Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs finished last season eighth in SP+ -- great overall but not particularly impressive for a team that went as far as they did -- and now must replace quarterback Max Duggan, two leading rushers, three leading receivers and three starting O-linemen. Yikes.

The defense took less of a hit, but, well, the defense wasn't the primary reason for their success.

 

 

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NoName

NoName 16351

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24 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

As long as they return that shitty OL, nothing is going to change. Their running game is going to be pathetic without Achane generating almost every fucking yard. Their RBs are fucking awful.

not making a change at OL coach is criminal.

Jimbo is out there collecting CFB's asshole infinity stones. i think Steve Addazio is such an asshole his son counts as one of those asshole infinity stones by association.

the CFB world better watch out, if he collects all 6 A&M will finally get back to 8-4!

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20276

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55 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

As long as they return that shitty OL, nothing is going to change. Their running game is going to be pathetic without Achane generating almost every fucking yard. Their RBs are fucking awful.

Moss is pretty damn good. I am sure he takes over as the bellcow next season. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62568

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18 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

As long as they return that shitty OL, nothing is going to change. Their running game is going to be pathetic without Achane generating almost every fucking yard. Their RBs are fucking awful.

They are not awful. They just have a beta attached to their outlook.

17 hours ago, texifornia said:

He's supposed to be a big headcase. Him and Owens is quite the room.

Who did they hire as the new TB coach after Ritz Bitz fired Robinson? 

If Owens and Moss are kept happy, they're both going to be very good on the carrying the ball end of things. One thing Fisher appears to be more than willing to do in his career is give his talent whatever room they need if he needs them. Both of these guys could be running a train on his new wife, denying the Holocaust, and robbing local supermarkets of all of their crab legs and Fisher would not give two shits if they're showing up on Saturdays and combining for 200 yards per game.

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