Negative Recruiting Your Own School: The aggy Screenshot Megathread

[Longhornfrenzy 5452]

[RomaVicta 29472]

How can they still not understand the nature of a guaranteed contract with no buyout option?

Also, the Tennessee letter is an Aggie, IMHO. Sure, the entire SEC was amazed at A&M and their magnificence in getting A&M out of the Big 12 and into the SEC, a brotherhood that longed for their long lost brother to join them. 

The letter is a list of things many Aggies want to do thinking the guaranteed contract will crumble under siege.

[nnm 35475]

40 minutes ago, Longhornfrenzy said:

No ag tag. Obviously not a BMA/good ag 

[SydneyCarton 47096]

I’m not sure this is even potentially reasonable, but I haven’t heard it mentioned and I haven’t thought about it….but maybe the aTm boosters find a way to restructure his contract like Bobby Bonilla. Offer him another 23 million for an even 100, and restructure it so they pay like 5 a year for 20 years. Maybe that’s how make to possible for them to get another guy and pay NIL. 
 

That being said, I don’t know how the mechanics of that work either, because if Im fisher I just don’t trust any situation where that money isn’t already in escrow somewhere, which brings us back to the original problem. It’s one thing to trust a mlb organization, another a loose affiliation of boosters who fund an athletic department that had to take a loan from the academic side to expand their stadium. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[Elmer_Fudd 22002]

Texags has a running thread about wanting Jim "the marine" Turner to come back once again and coach the OL.

[Frank Drebin 5360]

46 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

How can they still not understand the nature of a guaranteed contract with no buyout option?

Also, the Tennessee letter is an Aggie, IMHO. Sure, the entire SEC was amazed at A&M and their magnificence in getting A&M out of the Big 12 and into the SEC, a brotherhood that longed for their long lost brother to join them. 

The letter is a list of things many Aggies want to do thinking the guaranteed contract will crumble under siege.

It's more than that.  There is no offset if he gets another job.  Allows him to double dip.  

[Frank Drebin 5360]

19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not sure this is even potentially reasonable, but I haven’t heard it mentioned and I haven’t thought about it….but maybe the aTm boosters find a way to restructure his contract like Bobby Bonilla. Offer him another 23 million for an even 100, and restructure it so they pay like 5 a year for 20 years. Maybe that’s how make to possible for them to get another guy and pay NIL. 
 

That being said, I don’t know how the mechanics of that work either, because if In fisher I just don’t trust any situation where that money isn’t already in escrow somewhere, which brings us back to the original problem. It’s one thing to trust a mlb organization, another a loose affiliation of boosters who fund an athletic department that had to take a loan from the academic side to expand their stadium. 

And you throw in the concept of sovereign immunity where A&M could change their mind and tell him to F off like Tech did Leach.

[NoName 16197]

22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not sure this is even potentially reasonable, but I haven’t heard it mentioned and I haven’t thought about it….but maybe the aTm boosters find a way to restructure his contract like Bobby Bonilla. Offer him another 23 million for an even 100, and restructure it so they pay like 5 a year for 20 years. Maybe that’s how make to possible for them to get another guy and pay NIL. 
 

That being said, I don’t know how the mechanics of that work either, because if In fisher I just don’t trust any situation where that money isn’t already in escrow somewhere, which brings us back to the original problem. It’s one thing to trust a mlb organization, another a loose affiliation of boosters who fund an athletic department that had to take a loan from the academic side to expand their stadium. 

can you imagine the shit they will get if they give him MORE money all in? thats the only reason i think they won't do it - the headline is A&M pays him even more to go away?

im with you, i wouldn't trust those guys as far as i can throw them.

***

Bonilla and the deferred cash is because he made SO much more

Quote

Bonilla scored this deal in 2000, when the Mets still owed him $5.9 million. However, the all-star player agreed to defer his payment to let the Mets invest in the team and stadium. In return, the Mets agreed to pay Bonilla back $29.8 million over 35 years

here is why they were ok with that deferment for that much money - in case folks don't know...

Quote

The Mets released Bonilla in January 2000 but were still on the hook for his $5.9 million salary that season. Believing they were poised to make a significant profit through their investments with Bernie Madoff, Mets ownership instead agreed to defer Bonilla's salary with 8% interest, and spread the payments across 25 years from 2011-35.

 

17 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

It's more than that.  There is no offset if he gets another job.  Allows him to double dip.  

no offset AND no buyout if he wants another job elsewhere!!!

[Deej 76082]

[cochamps 1866]

2 hours ago, Longhornfrenzy said:

It this poster had any awareness, he would know that Jimbo HAS structured a "buyout" in his favor.  LOL.

[closetojumping 61996]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not sure this is even potentially reasonable, but I haven’t heard it mentioned and I haven’t thought about it….but maybe the aTm boosters find a way to restructure his contract like Bobby Bonilla. Offer him another 23 million for an even 100, and restructure it so they pay like 5 a year for 20 years. Maybe that’s how make to possible for them to get another guy and pay NIL. 
 

That being said, I don’t know how the mechanics of that work either, because if Im fisher I just don’t trust any situation where that money isn’t already in escrow somewhere, which brings us back to the original problem. It’s one thing to trust a mlb organization, another a loose affiliation of boosters who fund an athletic department that had to take a loan from the academic side to expand their stadium. 

 

57 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

And you throw in the concept of sovereign immunity where A&M could change their mind and tell him to F off like Tech did Leach.

Just to put this concept to bed since the sovereign immunity/trustworthiness of ATM issue is already a big deal:

If the present value of the buyout, the immediate part is like $27M, which I think is close to right, then that amount invested over 20 years with a modest return of 4% annually is $61M, roughly. At just 4%, which isn’t much if you’re working with a quality wealth management firm, the return of $34M is more than the concept of just pushing it out evenly and adding $23M in the process. It would have to be a lot more dough to outweigh the notions of opportunity cost and institutional fraud protected by state law. 

*I did quick and dirty math on this. While I have a Finance degree, I am not using NPV and FV calculations regularly on what I do. Someone else who does can happily fact check but I’m doubting I’m way off and I used conservative assumptions, to boot. 

[Fud 9510]

1 hour ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

Texags has a running thread about wanting Jim "the marine" Turner to come back once again and coach the OL.

He was one of the few coaches Jimbo has actually "fired" due to performance. Usually Jimbo refuses to to acknowledge mistakes and keeps guys on board, and when management tells him to make chances, he pushes back 

[SydneyCarton 47096]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Just to put this concept to bed since the sovereign immunity/trustworthiness of ATM issue is already a big deal:

If the present value of the buyout, the immediate part is like $27M, which I think is close to right, then that amount invested over 20 years with a modest return of 4% annually is $61M, roughly. At just 4%, which isn’t much if you’re working with a quality wealth management firm, the return of $34M is more than the concept of just pushing it out evenly and adding $23M in the process. It would have to be a lot more dough to outweigh the notions of opportunity cost and institutional fraud protected by state law. 

*I did quick and dirty math on this. While I have a Finance degree, I am not using NPV and FV calculations regularly on what I do. Someone else who does can happily fact check but I’m doubting I’m way off and I used conservative assumptions, to boot. 

Ok, so it has to be a lot more money promised. That being said...does that ENTIRELY rule out A&M from doing it? This is a fairly appopriate representation of the A&M fanbase:

[Serak The Preparer 3408]

12 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Just to put this concept to bed since the sovereign immunity/trustworthiness of ATM issue is already a big deal:

If the present value of the buyout, the immediate part is like $27M, which I think is close to right, then that amount invested over 20 years with a modest return of 4% annually is $61M, roughly. At just 4%, which isn’t much if you’re working with a quality wealth management firm, the return of $34M is more than the concept of just pushing it out evenly and adding $23M in the process. It would have to be a lot more dough to outweigh the notions of opportunity cost and institutional fraud protected by state law. 

*I did quick and dirty math on this. While I have a Finance degree, I am not using NPV and FV calculations regularly on what I do. Someone else who does can happily fact check but I’m doubting I’m way off and I used conservative assumptions, to boot. 

I'm having trouble even following your logic enough to even start checking the math. He's owed way more than $27,000 immediately. Can you check your units and repost?

[MonkeyDoughnut 9944]

1 hour ago, Frank Drebin said:

It's more than that.  There is no offset if he gets another job.  Allows him to double dip.  

Ouch that's going to sting when he's kicking their ass at Saban coaching retred academy as the OC.

[closetojumping 61996]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Ok, so it has to be a lot more money promised. That being said...does that ENTIRELY rule out A&M from doing it? This is a fairly appopriate representation of the A&M fanbase:

Let’s say they go aggie-stupid and offer him $10M/year for 20 years. That’s way more than reasonable in terms of beating FV of money expectations. What do you think his agent is going to talk to him about in that regard?

He’s likely to walk him through the notion of earnout risk, given the backdrop of how ATM can screw him in the future and his lack of legal recourse. “Assume you earn nothing down the line. “ Not happening. 

I’ve thought about the opposite happening for awhile. Sexton might tell him to expect nothing down the line anyway, since they could screw the guy over the current deal too. So instead of a longer term deal, they could always push for a free and clear payoff that derisks it for Fisher and reduces the obligation to ATM. “Pay me $40M now and both parties release each other and move on. “

[Redneck Mutha 7832]

The amount after this year is about $77M, but they owe 25% of that within 60 days.  So about $19M due up front and just over $7M for the remaining 8 years.

No clue on the rest of the staff.

[Frank Drebin 5360]

Jimbo is more of a "Coach February" more than Mack Brown ever was.

[Dbeasy 14733]

Jimbo will want more money upfront than what he's owed over the entire contract period because he's old enough to be thinking about spending money now vs getting it later when he might be dead. For that reason, I would highly doubt any plan to pay him less now and more later.  He won't do it. He'll take his 60 day money and then negotiate on the remaining $7M per year number to some sort of discount to NPV at the appropriate discount rate.

[closetojumping 61996]

17 minutes ago, Redneck Mutha said:

The amount after this year is about $77M, but they owe 25% of that within 60 days.  So about $19M due up front and just over $7M for the remaining 8 years.

No clue on the rest of the staff.

So $26M instead of $27M. It’s a little less in the long run but still more than the notion of $100M over 20 years. 

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

2 hours ago, Frank Drebin said:

And you throw in the concept of sovereign immunity where A&M could change their mind and tell him to F off like Tech did Leach.

Once his settlement is finalized and the initial lump sum payment delivered, he can go to JG wentworth to get the rest and let them assume that risk. 

[Deej 76082]

34 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Jimbo will want more money upfront than what he's owed over the entire contract period because he's old enough to be thinking about spending money now vs getting it later when he might be dead. For that reason, I would highly doubt any plan to pay him less now and more later.  He won't do it. He'll take his 60 day money and then negotiate on the remaining $7M per year number to some sort of discount to NPV at the appropriate discount rate.

He's just turned 58.

[DaysOff 7671]

[HenryJames 64914]

8 minutes ago, Deej said:

He's just turned 58.

What is that in dwarf years?

[BurntOrange&White 38710]

42 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

So $26M instead of $27M. It’s a little less in the long run but still more than the notion of $100M over 20 years. 

 

If I recall correctly 2025 would be something like 22.8-23.2 million due within 6 months with like 6.8 million recurring through 2031

What's crazy is they'll be paying 6.5+ million through 2031 if fired within the next 3 years. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Getafix 28358]

15 minutes ago, Deej said:

He's just turned 58.

 

6 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

What is that in dwarf years?

 

 

58 years.

 

 

[ClubWhatever 12066]

6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Hahahahahaha

[Redneck Mutha 7832]

None of these calculations matter because Jimbo will leave and not accept any money if he's not meeting expectations.

Also, aggies don't lie*, steal*, or cheat nor tolerate those who do.

*may not apply to reneging on overpaid coaches' contracts whoop

[BurntOrange&White 38710]

I was bored so here is this:

 

 

If I'm not mistaken the total due within 6 months for the next 3 years are all higher than Charlie Weiss and Gus Malzahn's

Edited October 18, 2023 by BurntOrange&White

[Chopper 15902]

If they want to wait to pay him until the payout isn't so large it draws embarrassing headlines, that means they'd have to keep him until 2027 or 2028.

Otherwise the difference in what they're immediately out of pocket in firing him this year compared to waiting for next year is $2M.

[SydneyCarton 47096]

22 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I was bored so here is this:

 

 

If I'm not mistaken the total due within 6 months for the next 3 years are all higher than Charlie Weiss and Gus Malzahn's

The first 4 years of that makes me think the guy would demand a lump sum larger than 40 million to walk away. More like 55-60, maybe. The other thing to consider, in regards to fucking him over and Soverign Immunity, is that the second aTm legit tries to fuck over Jimbo using those levers, or a trunk full of dead hookers, you have to think the cost of playing poker for any name coach after him is going to go way, way up. 

It's one thing for Tech to give what would be life changing money to a Joey Maguire or a lower cost HS coach for a few million to coach at Tech after they fucked over Mike Leach, but any high end college coach, college coordinator, or NFL retred or coordinator will absolutely balk at working at a place that actively fucked over the last guy on the contract after the fact. They'd be pissing in the pool of coaching candidates for the near and medium term if they fuck over Fisher in that regard, imo. And you KNOW Fisher won't be quiet about it. Imagine how many shitty things he'll say about aTm on the Finebaum show in one segment because he fucking talks like the goddamn micromachines pitchman. 

[Longhornfrenzy 5452]

[Longhornfrenzy 5452]

[Getafix 28358]

 

Tarp posted this on Aggie 247.

Looks like the Aggie $9.95ers have been given their messaging points. (Always charming when a note about keeping the coaching staff begins with "As of today ... " ... )

Also, it will not be long before Texas is blamed for yet another sin ... "forcing" A&M to keep Jimbo.  BOMC!  Or BOC! ...

Lulz.

 

Where Texas A&M football stands as of today

Tarp (Aggie 247)

 

Spoiler

 

Where Texas A&M football stands as of today

Tarp (Aggie 247)

 

As of today, the plan is for Texas A&M to keep as much of the existing roster (particularly the 2022 recruiting class) and coaching staff intact heading into the 2024 season.

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be changes within the program as opposed to the on the field personnel.

There’s three reasons for that.

1. The first is the fact that the 2022 recruiting class was the product of a perfect storm with coaching changes and down seasons at major competitors combined with the Aggies’ win over Alabama in 2021 as well as the 9-1 record they had in the 2020 season (which played a large role in A&M’s early recruiting success in the 2022 class).

It’s a unique class and the talent level is such that it’s going to be considered hard to replicate going forward. They’ll be upperclassmen in 2024 and A&M has another year to supplement the talent level of that class via the portal and recruiting. It’s a class that is projected to enable A&M to make a run into an expanded College Football Playoff and beyond.

The perception is that the class is the product not just of the efforts of the recruiting staff but head coach Jimbo Fisher as well. If something happens to the staff, then what is considered to be a possible national title winning class is perceived to be possibly headed out the door as well.

The effort required to put the class together only to possibly lose it is too difficult to contemplate.

2. The second is that when it was announced that Texas and Oklahoma were joining the SEC in 2024, A&M started lobbying not only to play Texas in year one of their membership but also to play them at Kyle Field. It was a group effort at the highest levels and eventually it paid off in the Horns having to come to College Station next season.

However, since the game was announced, Texas has been on a uphill climb while A&M is now 4-3. Losing a game at Kyle Field to Texas is pretty painful for people at the highest levels of the university to contemplate because it’s perceived to have both short and long term affects (particularly with regard to recruiting versus the Horns much like it did in the past when the two programs went head to head on the field).

In the opinion of people up and down the chain of command, the best way to beat Texas is to keep that 2024 class together while Texas is losing some of the stars from this season that enhance A&M’s chances to win that game (which may go a long way towards determining if A&M can win the SEC and make the playoffs).

Depending on what happens the rest of the year, the off field changes could be extensive or moderate. There could be on the field changes as well and at least one change is probably coming.

3. Finally, if you’re going to put money into the program, it’s considered to be best to do it via NIL as opposed to paying off people to leave. It’s also going to be easier to use the lure of NIL to make the necessary changes within the program.

All of that is as of today.

Could this change? Two things to consider.

1. A&M is 4-3. The rank and file fan has already turned on Fisher in terms of getting A&M to the promised land. If A&M loses more games then it’s probably going to start having a visible effect on the number of actual attendees at Kyle Field. In addition, those people are going to be less likely to help the program out financially going forward.

This also could happen at the upper levels. It’s not expected to due to the fact that it cost enormous amounts of money to change out a coaching staff…not just pay off the existing one but add new ones as well. Thus, those people are going to be easier to keep on board.

However, with every loss in a program that’s considered to have a top five roster nationally, had a staff that thought that it could win ten games this season, and then is watching A&M lose winnable games in a down year for multiple competitors…its’ going to be hard to swallow and feelings may grow exponentially with every defeat.

2. In addition, Fisher is considered to be an elite recruiter bringing in classes the likes that A&M has never seen before that make this program a national title contender on paper (regardless of the reality we’re seeing unfold). There’s a real concern that if anything happens to him that it would affect recruiting as well as the existing roster.

However….A&M has already had one decommitment this week. More will probably be coming if losses continue to pile up. Prized players on the existing roster may want out via the transfer portal if they get dissatisfied with their situation.

If those issues pop up, then that’s problematic because the assumption that Fisher is considered a key to holding everything together. If that doesn’t occur, then a lot of assumptions regarding the program may go out the window.

Nonetheless…that’s the plan and we’ll see how it holds up not just for the rest of the season but into the off season as well.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Getafix

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

I agree that aggy is bigger than jimbo. 
 

most things are. 

[Skipper 5955]

42 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

  Hide contents

If something happens to the staff, then what is considered to be a possible national title winning class is perceived to be possibly headed out the door as well

This sentence is pure poetry.

[TheRRKid 227]

Incredible. Rent free. Massive decisions are boiling down to how can they have the best chance to beat us next year at Kyle.

[RomaVicta 29472]

The power of an A&M education:

1 All those guys go to A&M because tradition and shit.

2 What? Lend itself to be a winning program? (see note 6)

3 What? Kids from OSU et al. provide recognition for their stars? 

4 Words of wisdom, Lloyd. Words of wisdom.

5 College man.

6 He actually re-read this and edited it. Let that sink in. 

 

TARP:

Huge fucking lie followed by absurd notion that they won some kind of victory after getting steamrolled by their SEC "brothers" into swallowing their objection to Texas coming at all and joining the unanimous vote. 

 

Beating Texas becomes their everything again. 

Move over little dog cuz the big dog's movin' in.

Edited October 18, 2023 by RomaVicta

[BurntOrange&White 38710]

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I was bored so here is this:

 

 

If I'm not mistaken the total due within 6 months for the next 3 years are all higher than Charlie Weiss and Gus Malzahn's

For reference, the recurring payment if fired within the next 2-3 years would make him a top 20 paid coach in college football. 

[Duane Moore 5236]

4 hours ago, HenryJames said:

What is that in dwarf years?

Jimbo might still be getting payments on his eleventy-first birthday. 

[WBT 20132]

Bonilla was guaranteed 8% return on his deferred money.  That's beaten the S&P500 by about half a percent over that period.  I'd certainly take that return risk free but it's also not the financial disaster for the Mets that idiot baseball writers make it out to be.

For Jimbo to defer and restrycture when treasuries are paying 5.5%, I'd think aggy would have to go higher than 8%.

Edited October 18, 2023 by WBT

[closetojumping 61996]

36 minutes ago, WBT said:

Bonilla was guaranteed 8% return on his deferred money.  That's beaten the S&P500 by about half a percent over that period.  I'd certainly take that return risk free but it's also not the financial disaster for the Mets that idiot baseball writers make it out to be.

For Jimbo to defer and restrycture when treasuries are paying 5.5%, I'd think aggy would have to go higher than 8%.

I believe that the Bruce Sutter deal was a better deal than the Bonilla deal because of the guaranteed return.

[NoName 16197]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

I believe that the Bruce Sutter deal was a better deal than the Bonilla deal because of the guaranteed return.

woah it absolutely was

Quote

is pact provided $4.8 million in deferred money that would pay 13 per cent interest over a 36-year period. Once it expired in 1990, Sutter started receiving an annual stipend of $1.3 million per year, pushing its total value to almost $50 million, making it one of the biggest in baseball at the time.

 

[Texas Wahoo 3376]

44 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I believe that the Bruce Sutter deal was a better deal than the Bonilla deal because of the guaranteed return.

At the time, the Mets were pushing the guaranteed return contracts because they thought they were getting such good returns through Madoff.

[Getafix 28358]

 

 

 

 

[ClubWhatever 12066]

6 hours ago, TheRRKid said:

Incredible. Rent free. Massive decisions are boiling down to how can they have the best chance to beat us next year at Kyle.

As it's always been.  Jimbo will absolutely not coach there past next year's Texas game if he loses.    The money is immaterial.  

[Rickylovesweed 14076]

Is it systematic failure or a cultural problem? Or maybe the cultural problem is part of the systematic failure?

It's not just 80 years in football. They've even been more unsuccessful in men's basketball and baseball. 

[Nivek 16643]

I know that fucking up the word is meme'd, but premie madonnas?!?! Lol

Bleating not bleeding

[Texasrocks 2110]

Jimbo's buyout is only 15 or 16 months of their tier 1 and 2 TV rights. No big deal.

[Vertigo 20203]

7 hours ago, TheRRKid said:

Incredible. Rent free. Massive decisions are boiling down to how can they have the best chance to beat us next year at Kyle.

It really is incredible to hear them publicly admitting this. Let’s play devils advocate for a moment. You fire Jimbo at the end of the 2024 season instead of 2023 just so you have a chance at winning that single, likely meaningless for them, regular season game. 

What impact does that have? Well, for starters, the 2025 class is going to be a monster in state class. None of the top talent is going to go to a dead man walking coach with a boring offense. That means that they are jeopardizing at least 3 or even 4 seasons including 2024 for a single game with a bunch of mercenaries.